31 Burst results for "Alan Greenspan"
Monetary & Political Update
"What is your opinion of like all of the latest sort of academic econometrics models? You know the Alan Greenspan productivity norm type models. What do they do for us like during this time? Because if you really just look at how these major swings in the economy happen, they happen. You know every ten years or five ten years. Everybody always says they're completely unexpected. We didn't know enough. We didn't prepare enough. We should do more. We should tweak our models more and in the same thing happens the next five to ten years so. What in your opinion is the point of All of these models and a of metric stuff that economists dude did it help us during this crisis? Will it ever help us? No, I don't think it. Help US I think. Perhaps there they're just. A way to make the economist few more comfortable, regarding the uncertainty of the future on. Maybe they'll feel more at ease regarding their inability to understand what is going on in the economy, I mean if you look at the forecast by the Federal Reserve System and the feds they employ if I'm not mistaken over five hundred economists and mostly PhD's and have they predicted the what happened in two, thousand eight. No, they did not predict that. Did they predict what happened now? No, of course not and. The situation we have. Currently is not only a matter of economic savvy business cycle swings of the business activity. Of course we do have the pandemic. This has had a major. Force in the crisis at least as the main trigger for the crisis, but why? Why always tried to pinpoint is that the economy was already fragile, so you could see from a whole list of financial indicators. Economic Indicators. The American economy is the global economy was not on a sound footing, so the fragility was. There you could see anything that could be. Trigger might have the effect of precipitating an economic crisis that could in turn lead to a financial crisis. Ex exactly as has happened in the last three to four months so I don't think economic models can do any kind of job in predicting what's going to happen? Economists try to. To Understand reality to understand how the world works, and through this econometric models, which some of them are very sophisticated, they think. By doing this. Different models with a lot of different variables they can have a more sophisticated model that that can provide them with more knowledge, regarding the future, but it just can't. It's impossible to model reality. It's impossible to model the world, and it's impossible to predict what's going to happen, but you can at least assess the the underlying state of the economy of markets, and this is something that I think. Mostly Austrian it tastes have done pretty nicely over the last twenty thirty or forty
The Mind Financing The Future
"When powerful people use their advantage to engage in new involuntary transfers of wealth safety or freedom from those too weak to defend themselves. The winners are almost always forced to create an idealism as a cover for their siphoning in simpler terms. These idealisms are actually cover stories or bespoke fig leaves which almost exactly fit. The extraction are taking that they are tailored mask once. This is understood. We realized that to test this theory. Each wave of idealism would have to be matched to a highly specific effective confession for an injustice that pervaded the era in which it was found. This concept of idealism as disguising theft is of course an upsetting cognitive shift get is therefore naturally initially difficult to come to see the waves of idealism that characterized each era that we have lived through not as the best of our aspirations for a better world but rather as the photographic negative of the greed of our own ruling classes for example. The idealism of United States competitiveness was everywhere in the nineteen eighties and early to mid Nineteen Ninety S. At that time it seemed to be about the need for all Americans to pull together and get back into fighting shape as a country looking below the surface however it was not really about the need of managers owners and workers to pull together through shared austerity to reinvigorate American industry. Rather it was a false idealism. That instructed organized American Labor to give up hard won gains that were then not matched by comparable sacrifices from the other groups. Once the United States Labor had been sufficiently humbled in attenuated in its power by the Mid Nineteen Ninety S. The drumbeat of patriotic competitiveness gave way to the post National Davos idealism of a world without borders singing the praises of Financial Inclusion Trade Immigration and philanthropy with the Maudlin sediments of nine hundred eighty five. We are the world as its anthem. The purpose of the Post National Movement was not to include those overseas but instead to allow the wealthy of the industrialized world to break the bonds with their fellow citizens of the working class and to access cheaper labor. Pools abroad using far-flung supply chance likewise the idealism of so-called constructive engagement with governments like communist China's would be seen through this lens as the rationalization for ignoring issues of human rights and strategic risk in such a way as to benefit economically in the short-term selling out American interests in the long-term meanwhile back home in the states the techno Utopian perspective that arose dominate. The Bay area of California held. That information just wants to be free and that now. Transparency is king because privacy is dead perversely as you would expect in this theory. This hippie dippy sounding digital vision is exactly what ushered in the surveillance economy as the platforms became not windows but half silvered mirror through which the social media barons learned every intimate detail about their users. These startups turn techno behemoths. Turned the most intimate personal details of our private lives into their proprietary business. Data which was as far from free or transparent as one could possibly imagine the idealism of gender and identity to fits the exact pattern second wave feminism seemed to be about recognizing the intrinsic worth of women in the workforce but it may also be seen as an employer dream to push out the labor supply curve in such a way as to make the previous single breadwinner household require a second income just to keep pace the politics of identity which caught fire in the wake of the twenty ten. Colorado Senate upset are explained largely by economists. Pm Alana's theory. That identity is the cheapest substitute for the Labor Voting Block which demanded far more significant economic concessions. More bizarrely the strange media ritual of pointing the finger of Islamaphobia at anyone who dares ask about a mass murderer in which the killer triumphantly shouts of the hawk. Bar Emits. Bloody and sadistic mayhem may well be about protecting transfer. Payments from oil-rich monarchies while the official admonition to see the Niqab hit job burqa and clitoridectomy predominantly ethnic differences or symbols of female. Liberation is so absurd to go along way towards establishing the need for some theory. Is this to fill the space. The left-leaning idealism of making housing affordable for all that too many bad loans inflated the housing bubble while the right-leaning Ayn Rand Ian Idealism of self regulating markets practiced by Alan Greenspan allowed the banks to privatize gains while socializing the risks losses. The giving pledge to May well be an attempt to keep governments from clawing back unpaid taxes from carefully sheltered fortunes or establishing wealth and asset taxes in a period of radical inequality. In this sense it can be seen as something of a bargain if I promise to screw over my own children for charity. I hope that you will leave me alone and unquestioned to enjoy my vast and carefully sheltered wealth while I'm alive and as we have just seen with the Biden endorsements from Speaker Nancy Pelosi Senator Kirsten Gillibrand and former Senator Hillary Clinton. The metoo movement appears to be less about sexual assault and more about adding a tool for extra-judicial vigilantism which can be wielded selectively or kept sheath according to taste suffice it to say that. Hashtag believe all women has now given way to hash tag believe convenient women so you may ask. Why bring this up now? Well in my opinion what we need now is someone who is not part of any of the official idealisms. Of course that would have sounded quite weird in isolation if I had simply said that we need an anti Utopian to lead us. Wouldn't we want someone envision a dreamer doer hybrid two point the way? No we want someone who is not signed on for any of these horrible anti patriotic charades from either party. Someone who never believed in free trade free markets nationalism housing for all deregulation competitiveness etcetera etcetera. We need someone who is not closed with Jeffrey Epstein who does not possess significant financial relationships abroad. Additionally someone alienated by both the hardline pro-life pro-choice perspectives. Would be perfect for where most Americans are today since the time of Nixon. We've been in an era of predatory idealism with our best impulses used against us from both right and left. It is now time to get back to the hard work of cleaning up from two disastrous generations of failed business people politicians reporters in professors and perhaps most importantly we need to flush our dependence on near totalitarian communist China out of our system before it is too late
U.S. stocks shrug off trade deal concerns, close higher
"It is the record rally that just keeps on running stocks touching new all time highs again today but our next guest says you should probably enjoy the good times while they last because they won't offspring and northbound traders spent Henrik who stayed up late for US overseas then and we do appreciate it. I mean you and I have talked a lot about this worldwide exchange of the programs. This is as the market whether you want to call it the Fed steroid or whatever it might be. Just won't quit anything in the charge that you see that indicate to you. This thing is about ready to roll over not about my charter. Actually on on massive sell but the liquidity momentum is extremely strong. And it's it's like the Fed has been playing secret Santa all year long handing out gifts of asset price inflation and the big issue for me is what I what I see here in the macro context first of all is to say that two thousand nineteen has been read revelation Central banks cannot extract themselves from the monetary easing being monstrosity. They've created two thousand. Eighteen was the only year since the financial crisis with central banks actually reduced liquidity on the net basis and immediately blew up in everybody's face and so two solution in two thousand nineteen was go right back into adding liquidity with obviously global rate cuts everywhere aware and then the addition of Qe and not itself. So we're we're basically stock where we're exiting this decade the same way we entered it kicking and screaming with trillion dollar deficits massive central bank intervention load to negative rates. And absolutely no iota of vision on how we're are ever going to raise rates again or reduce balance-sheets because they all going into twenty twenty just pressing the pedal to the metal. So the question is what's the endgame amy old admittedly and and what we see is there's no bull market without central bank intervention and that's the big challenge for the for the next decade but there there is central bank intervention. So I I assume the bull market could keep going. I mean it's hard to believe spend but twenty years ago. I was in this building reporting on sort of the Nasdaq boom in the Internet. Boom is there anything anything when you look at the charts and not trying to spook anybody here but when you look in the charts. Is there anything technically or in the policy construct or whatever that resembles ninety nine. Well actually. This is really interesting. What's happening this year? Keep in mind. When when the Fed we have to divide the year into two parts the the first nine months and the last three months the first nine months was all about you know ending? The quantitative tightening and Unin became about rate cuts to cut defense out of cut rates three times seventy five basis points but then. Everything changed in October. When the Fed was forced to respond to the overnight rate issue the the report crisis in September and basically in October the Fed went wild they're adding balance-sheet and liquidity? At a rate we've not seen since the two thousand nine in crisis so basically acting like this big crisis underneath what's happening with all this liquidity. It's it's accelerated markets higher and brought a lot of sectors stop were struggling beforehand. What's really interesting here is that this is Kinda the same as construct We saw nine hundred ninety nine. Remember nine thousand nine hundred eight. We had a a twenty percent. Correction the Fed. Cut Seventy five basis points. We had the big rally in one thousand nine hundred nine but it didn't really kick off until until Alan Greenspan span came in late in the year of nineteen ninety nine and added a bunch of liquidity in anticipation of the White UK crisis and that lifted markets of dramatically and then ended up topping in March of two thousand the extended all this liquidity added. Here is artificial and has to be pulled back back. Markets maybe overshooting real quick though. Is this inflation. Or we having reflation trade or we having ultimately setting up for deflation sounds to me like a bubble that bursts that still gets us back to deflation even though always going higher copper is going higher etc.. You know it's interesting I. I'm looking at some big structural charts like gold gold as a big bowl flag on it. Petit has a bull flag on it. And if you look at a actually the the rate action here in in Q.. Four it hasn't confirmed this rally at all in bear flag so we've yet to see the Rian flation evidence in terms of the Bond Market Henrik north man trader raiders spend. We have pre. Listen I. It's been you've been strong and on this market. I know it's been a tough market if you've been short but you've you've come out and you've been honest about the calls and and where you feel about it so it's been Henrik. We do appreciate you coming on. Thanks for staying late overseas. We'll see again appreciate that. Thanks Brian. Listen guys I think spend take some heat because they'll say I'm negative. Negative given the market has gone up. But what he's saying is if and win the Fed ever pulls back Right at this market is going to. That's is exactly right. And his point that central banks tried to do that in two thousand eighteen and it led to twenty nine. Thousand nine is a scary tale. It's just it's a cautionary because eventually we are going to get back where we have to removed that liquid it is. It is interesting that when you start to see what everyone's judging this on rates and rates alone start to look at balance sheets where qt was ineffective. The same result is raising rates at every meeting and now Q. E. adding in the same results as cutting so they're not doing anything to rates. They're actually cutting rates by proxy through through their people people. Come up they probably come to you guys all the time and they say why isn't impeachment affecting the market you know why because impeachment whoever's in sixteen hundred Pennsylvania Avenue you can't compete with a trillion dollars in central bank liquidity.
Data reaffirms expectation for a slowing in consumer spending
"More we are so lucky to have Danielle DiMartino both in the studio with us here chief executive officer and chief strategist of quill intelligence also a Bloomberg opinion column as a former fed employee in Dallas and you know I really want to focus on the consumer we got a number of data today I got a point consumer spending came in lower than expected and the Bloomberg consumer comfort index plunged the most on a weekly basis in eighteen years in eight years and yet Jake how this put all of his eggs in the one basket of saying we're not going to cut rates as long as the consumer hangs in there it's a big bet on his part I mean he really really is not diversifying fed policy let's put it that way all right so I take it just from that come along that you think that the fed you becoming more it's not so much the rate will look the economy is slowing and it gets tiresome to listen to these press conferences when Jay pals clearly in denial yes interest rate sensitive sectors actually let's just say sector because autos really haven't budged in fact auto buying intentions in the latest consumer confidence data are crashing so the only thing the only needle that's been moved by these rate cuts in housing that's it and and we're seeing as I was as I was just thinking least worst we saw in the bank earnings reports that the credit card spending rates have been coming down revolving credit has been a tremendous support for consumer spending we're seeing the saving rate take up we saw that this morning it took up to eight point three percent consumers are clearly battening down the hatches were seen deposits cash savings increase as well so I think the consumer senses that there's something amiss but again that's where Jay pals got all of his bass all right there are two questions implicit here first question well cutting rates actually encourage consumers to spend more no there it it's it's now I I don't think it will and that you know might mean he's been very good at press conferences about drilling him on this what are these rate cuts going to do I think the rate cuts have more to do with the plumbing in the financial system because the fed is buying treasury bills like there's no tomorrow and money market funds are arbitrage in this by parking their money at the fed where they get an additional ten basis points it's boxing the fed into where they have to continue to lower rates okay the second question that I have is regarding that credit card spending is the biggest banks I read the heard on the street column in the Wall Street journal about this and it was not that it is declining it's just that the growth in the credit card revolving credit has been lower right coming down and I guess they're two ways to read this you could read this as a tempering of the economy which everyone knows that it's slowing and you could or you could look at it as out waiting consumer confidence and a sign that things are gonna turn south which is the correct read I think that consumers know that there is slowing let jobless claims of barely moved by the breath of states that have increasing jobless claims has increased from about a third it hit seventy five percent in September we're running about fifty one percent now of state in the country with rising jobless claims and to your point about growth in credit card spending slowing the average weekly earnings will get new data out tomorrow morning but in June it was running at a four percent right in September it'd take down to two point six percent that's the paycheck growth it's not so much that income is declining it's that households know that their paycheck is no longer growing at the same pace so it's it appears a chairman pal and some members of the the dovish fed if you will are thinking about it it's all about the jobs and everybody's got a job on points at its all time low briefly tell off the sidelines a lot blah blah blah blah so tomorrow what's the what do you look at the cut through the blah blah blah tomorrow the jobs number so I'll be focused tomorrow on the sectors where we're seeing job growth if you looked inside the internals of the eighty P. report yesterday one sector financials that was the only one where you saw any growth of any kind and super large companies over a thousand place otherwise you name the sector contracting and you name the size of the business seriously slowing growth so I'm going to be looking at where jobs being created we've seen in the survey we've seen in the soft data that service and employment indices have come down with in in the case of market it's a ten year low so I'll be looking to see what types of jobs are being created dig into this consumer comfort data and you will see that the highest income earners their confidence has been coming down mom at a much faster pace than the people who they employ who still have high confidence are the is the consumer a leading or lagging indicator absolutely lacking every recession like sixty three percent of post war recessions we have been in recession with with expanding consumption it is not something that you look to to see where the economy is headed it is something you look in the rear view mirror to see post facto we're cooking what did you want to hear from chairman Powell yesterday that you didn't hear I wanted to hear a lot more about the repair facility I wanted to hear a lot more about why he contends that it's not quantitative easing just because it's at the at at the short end of maturity curve I don't think there were enough questions that were asked and I think that his intent and his Cinderella wish is to have a nineteen ninety five nineteen ninety eight redox and be Alan Greenspan to where the economy just continues to expand after three rate cuts but in ninety five we were at the beginning of an economic expansion in ninety eight we had a massive hedge fund blowing up these were idiosyncratic events were not there we're deep deep deep into this economic expansion and I would have preferred to have seen a little bit more about him saying no more rate cuts but by the way QB's blasting right king of the Martinez thank you so much for joining us really helpful Daniels the CEO chief strategist of quill intelligence also a Bloomberg opinion calmest giving us her smart thoughts on what we heard yesterday from chairman Palin the fed and what we might be looking for to what we need to focus on tomorrow with the jobs number of course Bloomberg radio will cover the jobs report in full as we
The Climb: Auburn Athletic Director Allen Greene
"We walk me back to reach the final hour of the program and shout out to our crew here. Uh in the last thirty minutes we have gone from being outside inside outside and inside again all all because it is summertime. No it's actually the fall but it feels like the summertime here in Auburn Alabama. Let me also welcome the Director of Athletes Alan Greenspan Alan considering. You're wearing snazzy so you're probably lucky to be inside outside one hundred degrees all day and I think I'm just going to throw all my calls away on the way home. I'm glad you've worked your weather magic. Yes nice being inside. It's great to have you in when you were introduced. not that long ago as as AH Athletic Director it was a significant moment historically and sometimes people look the other way when when we talk about the first this for the first step but I think it's also worth talking about Allen because we're what fifty the fiftieth anniversary of the integration integration of of integration in this thing and so many significant moments and there was this series that we have on Tuesday and a lot of attention has been paid to that glad that we've talked to Congress hallway other day was the first black quarterback in the SEC and he talked about the struggles even thinking about going to one school but he said coach Bryan told them Alabama may not be ready for that. These sound foreign to young people who don't know a world like that but it is. It's important to remember. It is thank you bring that up Paul. It's not lost upon me. I'm the first Black Catholic director Albany has ever had and although I see myself as just another aid like my colleagues I do have to at least understand that my skin's a little bit darker. I got a little more of a Tan than everybody else but we are celebrating the fiftieth anniversary of integration in Auburn Athletics Alexander. I'm really truly humbled to be at Auburn at this time to be able to help celebrate this milestone and so all we can we're going to celebrate the integration and it just speaks volumes in my opinion of Auburn family and gives us a chance to just celebrate something. That's really important as we move forward in our country. Particularly I remember that time. You're too young and it was difficult because coach. I said something a minute ago. You said it was politically they difficult but for him growing up on a farm. It was not difficult at all but I'm I'm interested Allen in you. Have Young children seven seven seven year old senator in you have another one to have a twelve year old son Sammy and for for for Sammy Seneca what what does this mean to them because I don't remember well about one more who's fourteen and she's a freshman. Her name is Ryan and we try to help. Educate our kids about the differences the struggles that people of color have had throughout our country and it's not just people of color but those who are in the minority of those who have had a difficult time in navigating society diety across across the world and so we it's important that they understand that will drive through Birmingham or Montgomery there's a history their job to sell them for the summer for the first time in drove over Edmund Pettus first time a couple of weeks ago and the people that were gracious incredibly emotional for me and those are just things that we have to consider remember I'm from Seattle Washington so getting in and having that experience experienced down southbound. I watched it on TV and I watched it on the Internet and so but being here at Auburn his has helped me understand the real true through hearts of people in the south and we couldn't be we couldn't be happier to be here. I remember early in my career. I became very close. Translate with Tom. Ghassem who was one of the first to to be down here and he told me the stories of some of his friends one. I think it was a trailblazer basketball that had a tough time right and it was such an education and it still is it is it is but but I again like I gotTa tell people the I've told this to our fan base Auburn family has embraced Christie myself in our kids so much more when I ever thought and it's a it's a great community to be in. We are thriving. Everyone asks all the time. How you and your family doing work great. We love it here. In the family's van been very very welcome and embrace us with open arms and things seem to be going pretty well. You can just go right down the list of Sports Baseball Paul last summer basketball on and obviously things are looking up. I I realize good so it's funny. Someone told me Stat last year we were only the fourth school in Division. One history to winnable game goes to the final four college world series and one year and I said the fourth this year and they said no the fourth the fourth ever so we had a tremendous season last year. We had a national champion. Gymnastics are women's golf team went to the final four for we've. We've had a lot of success to build on and we certainly got enough to a hot start in football this year and we're really excited about that and robs. You really excited about what the future has force the rest of this fall since our really hot button questions ask you about personnel. I do want to ask you about the student athletes of today so much going on especially with the legislation in California mark talking about that today and and you know you because you talk to athletes every single day you go to practices you. Keep up with it. What do you hear from young people about where their sports are going yeah. It's it's interesting Paul. A lot of the concern for our student athletes is mental health in time demands. Those things haven't changed. I think we're we're a little bit of a different world now where student athletes and I guess millennials so to speak haven't really had to deal with coping right and and having to figure the things on their own and so we see that and you see that in our student athletes are member about five years ago. I didn't believe that there was actually mental illness. Why can't the kids just toughened up like we and we just battled getaway but it's a different environment and so we do all that we can try to to wrap our arms around our student athletes help give give them the skills necessary to be able to to cope and go through adversity and then also certainly from a time perspective helping them understand that in order to have a great student athlete experience they have to be more than just athletes they have to be students have to engage in our campus life and try to do something that's going to push them out of their comfort zone and just get to get to experience all that their universities have to offer. I was struck. I'll tell you I had the opportunity to speak to a journalism. I was in class and I've done this before and sometimes I walked away going. I'm not really sure about today's students. Today I walked away blown away by by everything about the young people in terms of their knowledge their awareness and I just I I I'm I'm really just so thrilled in the opportunity because I sometimes we don't give enough credit and and and I'm particularly interested in the coping part. I know this sounds a little heavy for a sports show. Why do you think having played intercollegiate athletics a couple years ago a couple of why why. Why do you think it is it? Is it different than it was when I don't know that things are any well yes. It's different social media media. We didn't have email back then. I'm dating myself but so social media's out. There are students in our young people in society ninety. Today in my opinion are a lot more a lot smarter right. They have so much more information but Tom Goss said this during lunch today just because they have all the information on their phones doesn't mean they have all the answers and I think it's our responsibility as adults to help them find those answers when they have when they have some sort of a struggle Ogle to help make the decision for them but to help guide them so that they can make the most appropriate decisions and allow in this tough for us because we're in such a competitive environment armant but people need to be allowed to fail and sometimes it happens on the field of play when you don't want to but we are so interested in preventing our young people from failing because we don't want to hurt them. They're actually probably do a little bit of a disservice so trying to find those environments where they can fail or they can learn. They can grow that will help also make them better people. That's that's what we're trying to do. What I sit here and listen to this you sit in these ivory tower positions TMZ which sometimes we we are in the director and say well he he'd better view this or that because the program is not being competitive you often forget. There is a a huge underbelly of all of this so what no there's no answer to these issues but How do you work on a daily consistent basis to deal with them? You've got really deep Paul one of the things I think what our coaches do. A great job of is really getting to know our student athletes elites and getting to know them as people whether it's doing ropes courses or just having them over their house for dinner really understanding where they came from what what makes them tick what makes them what do they respond to and then more importantly. Paul I think is the coaches understanding how they coach. One of Bar Coaches Mickey Dean our softball coach was talking to us as head coaches and said he takes the test so he knows how he coaches and he also takes has as their student athletes take tests and he realizes that there's sometimes when personalities don't match up and if the student athlete doesn't either move toward the coach or the coach doesn't doesn't more to move toward the student athlete kind of there's not much of twenty four success there so I think having some self awareness really really important and those types of things that we talk talk about as as head coaches and as administrators finally what you engine to lunch what what else is on on the schedule for the for the weekend. It's been a long one. Campus is a buzz right now funny enough. I actually saw some people. They weren't tailgating yet but they were setting up. It's an o'clock this this morning to get ready to set up for their tailgate. They said they were sitting in sweating this morning but we've got a ton of dedications a couple of dedications today. We dedicated eight at our barn today which was fantastic event. WE'VE got a couple of events this this evening to honor and celebrate the fiftieth anniversary surreal integration. We're going to have a little soiree at our house this evening with some special guests are gonna come over and then we meet with recruits all day tomorrow some more more celebrations and
8 Things that Happen During a Recession
"GONNA talk about eight. Things usually hassle ate during recession comfy here you go number one stocks drop generally speaking the drop about start drop about six months before the recession and according to the capital group which is the folks behind the American family of funds the start to rebound about six months into recession and that they've recoup their losses over about eighteen months so usually it's. It's not too bad. the average loss during recession depends on how you look at it but it's like twenty to thirty percent some of in very shallow that said the last two recessions we experience at the dot com crash and the great recession. Those were declines a fifty percent. It took more than five years for the stock market to recover but basically this is why we always say any money you need. The next few years should not be in the stock market number. Two rates also dropped so it's already started. They could continue to go lower. The Federal Reserve is going to meet a week. Everyone expects them to drop the Fed funds rate by twenty five basis points. Maybe fifty basis points around the world. There's this is phenomenon of negative. Interest rates hasn't happened yet in America but Alan Greenspan recently just told CNBC. It's only a matter of time so rates. Could it keep dropping. What does that mean well. Ideally you could refinance your home. Get a lower mortgage. Guitar Refinance Your Car Loan Student Loan. Hopefully your credit card rates also get out so that's actually pretty good news number. Three bonds hold up depending on the bonds so generally speaking when rates go down bounds go up as we've seen that this year bonds actually made almost ten percent so far in two thousand nineteen which is a pretty extraordinary turn for bonds in two thousand eight when the S. and P. Five hundred went down thirty seven percent bonds. I went up five percent. The only thing is it does depend on the type of bonds treasuries do well corporates do generally okay but it depends on how far you go down the the credit rating. When you're looking at junk bonds they do not do so well. They lost twenty percent and two thousand eight so the more you are concerned about a recession the more you should keep your bonds to treasuries or highly rated corporates or maybe just play it safe with cash number four. The price of your house actually might go. Woah so I think a lot of us were stung by the great recession and that was really the first time when we saw a nationwide drop in home prices the truth is when you look at recessions historically home prices actually hold up well and there was a study by Mark Mark Holbert published in Market Watch we found that when when you look at the case Schiller Index of home prices that actually does better during stock bear markets than does during stock bull markets so historically in in most cases. Your House is actually a good hedge against the recession against inflation and its stock market drop however during the great recession what we saw last time that was not the case so there will always be outlived. Generally houses hold up pretty well number. Five inflation generally goes down so this is the upside of downtrodden economy economy. Prices generally do go down. So what does that mean for you well. It's actually a really good time to make a major purchase by a car. Get an appliance because all those folks out there trying to get consumers to come in and buy something so if you have the means and you're looking to make a good perk big. Purchase recession is actually a good time to do it number. Six employment goes up so according to the Washington Post the unemployment rate has risen two point four percentage points on average during the eleven recessions since World War Two so it goes up slightly but of course sometimes it could be worse. What was the worst since World War. Two was the last one the great recession unemployment went from five percent to ten percent on average. People were out of a job for six months so that's a good frame for what we talked about the Emergency Fund how much you should have and the way to prepare for this of course is to have the emergency fund but also keep your debt levels manageable because that's where people get in trouble to have high debt levels. They lose their job and they could no longer pay the mortgage or anything else so they they lose the house or they lose the car. So have the Emergency Fund and keep your debt levels manageable number. Seven employers reduce benefits so even if you are fortunate enough to remain among the working chances are something we'll get reduced. That's right. You may not get a raise. You may not get the bonus. Your 401k match might get eliminated. That's happened. Here is then the for kindly made up for it. Retroactively that usually does not happen so you'll see stuff like that. You may not have fancy holiday party at the end of the year might be in the conflicts in how we've done that too potluck instead of a fancy party downtown but so even if you do have managed to keep your job and most people will all you do have to expect that you'll probably have to tighten your belt a little bit somewhere another and number eight intersection stocks do go back up in the economy eventually eventually recovers so for those who have the cash on the sidelines and the guts buying stocks in the middle of recessions can actually be one of the best investments you ever made but you can't wait until the recession over is over because the stock market begins to recover before the overall economy but history has shown. US economy will recover you will be able to go back to the Fancy Politics Party at the hotel downtown and stocks will eventually they will recover and reach higher
The Fed was unusually chatty Tuesday
"The marketplace number oh, the day this Tuesday is five five members of the Federal Reserve's open market committee. That's the one that gets to decide interest rates. Remember five of them gave public speeches today. And believe me when I tell you for the fed that has a whole lot of talking central bankers have non at least historically been the most say, what's on your mind group of people that has been changing those we've been reporting and as marketplace's Mitchell Hartman tells us today, it has potential upsides and downsides back in nineteen Ninety-six. Then fed chair Alan Greenspan, uttered, the words irrational exuberance in a speech investors thought he was saying stocks were overvalued and the market tanked, probably not what Greenspan intended. But he did want to be opaque, says economist Frederic Mishkin, who served as a fed governor in the mid. Thousands. Michigan says one time after testifying to congress. One of the congress, people said that was very clear and Alan Greenspan, said, well, then it must have been a mistake. But under the next fed chair, Ben Bernanke transparency and frequent communication became guiding principles. That's continued under his successors. If you can get the markets understand how you react to future events that can actually make things monetary policy of warfare, active. A lot of what current chairman Jerome Powell. Communicates says university of Michigan economist, Betsey Stevenson is to reassure us that the feds got. It's all on the ball and on the news. Oh, and they're aware that obviously, the trade issues had the potential to have a big impact, so they're watching it really closely chairman Powell does have to contend with one communications challenge. His predecessors didn't says, dean Baker at the center for economic and policy research, and that's a president who publicly criticizes the fed POWs going to bend over back. Quds to say, we're not gonna listen to the present telling us to lower rates not Baker says, if economic conditions warranted Powell won't hesitate to cut rates and explain exactly why.
Fed holds line on rates, says no more hikes ahead this year
"And in a world filled with uncertainties that Federal Reserve gave us one less thing to worry about this week to no one's surprise. The fed kept interest rates unchanged. But came across as more dovish than most were expecting Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell indicated that they are unlikely to raise rates again this year, and maybe nearly finished with a series of increases they began within three years ago. In response. Stocks climbed briefly to their highest levels for the year and the bond market rallied higher across all maturities, the benchmark ten year treasury bond yield declined to two and a half percent. A new low for the year at a big positive for the housing market since mortgage rates loosely. Follow the ten year yield and mortgage rates fell sharply this week to their lowest level in fifth. Fifty two weeks in some the feds may name appears to be to do. No harm to the economy. The chairman pelvis was in a quote, good place unquote, while inflation continues to run below its two percent target. And in the absence of a sharp economic slowdown, which the fed doesn't see in the cards their forecast for gross domestic product growth was trained to two point one percent down from two point three percent while it's predicting growth of one point nine percent. Twenty twenty the Federal Reserve chairman recent actions are reminiscent of a previous chairman Alan Greenspan whose actions during his reign in the ninety s repoprtedly known as the Greenspan put leading investors to believe that whenever stormclouds appeared in the economy. The fed would come to the rescue with loose monetary policy. Do we now have a pal put well, a time will
"alan greenspan" Discussed on Biz Talk Radio
"They occur. And how they end. We're gonna talk about earnings and the ports of gaps. When companies report earnings gaps both up and down. Other things we'll be discussing today in the markets. Sector's cousin stocks. What's a cousin stock will explain and a little bit on relative strength because ladies and gentlemen, we think there are just too many definitions out there on what relative strength is in the markets. We will strip away all the myths. And explain. So again, we thank you for being here on this day. It's either a holiday or we are out and we want to start today. And it's something we've talked about a lot. We never really used to have to talk about it. Many years ago. Central banks. Their job was simplistic meet every month and not do much seriously. Many years ago. There were no central Bank people talking in between meetings. It was frowned upon. And then came the mid nineties for some reason, they decided they needed to be famous. They needed to be out there. All well and good. But something else happened. Back in the late nineties. There was a gentleman by the name of Alan Greenspan who believed in easy money policies and at that time. All it meant was lowering interest rates and keeping.
"alan greenspan" Discussed on WINT 1330 AM
"Past week to give you their opinion? I'm what is happening in the markets. Alan Greenspan had the nerve to come out China in this past week. The same Alan Greenspan that didn't see anything wrong. Then see the financial crisis coming at all. Idiots like myself saw coming byles away. One after another after another. What wisdom today provide? What are they portfolio managers came out this past week predicting a bear market is coming? Actually know what a bear market is. I get asked all the time. Oh, entering a bear market. Chris entering a bear market. What do you define this a bear market? Didn't even know what they're asking didn't even know what a bear market is there. A correction is most people have no idea even what a recession is how many people do here right now. But he was smart out thirty here calling for a recession. All I see recession coming two thousand nine hundred eighty two thousand twenty if that not that within the next fifty years. Is. It's static. It's noise. Guys coming out making the case for the balls. I think the bull markets can resume itself.
"alan greenspan" Discussed on Masters in Business
"Help especially this week. You can't help, but drew a line from Alan Greenspan and the post nine eleven pre-financial crisis interest rates straight to the boom in fracking. So the best compliment I could ever get as one of my books could be. Considered a beach raid. So I'm absolutely be. Oh, that's literally literally not just the beach read. But it was compelling in not like, I don't get to the beach all that early from from nine ten o'clock in the morning two to three in the afternoon straight through. It really was a great narrative. They're a great characters. And there's some really interesting insights what motivated you to to start looking at frac. Well, so I was always obsessed with Aubrey mcclendon being really couldn't be so Francis related to Enron because he's in similar part of the contract gas. I have an affinity for these these business these characters in the world of business who come along every so often who are larger than life, and who really proved the old adage that truth is stranger than fiction who could be stars in their own Shakespearian drama. Whether it's Jeff skilling, whether it's Mike Pearson. Whether it's Aubrey mcclendon, I find this character is just fascinating. What what drives them? What makes them tick why their excesses? So I so I was I was obsessed with Aubrey for for years. And then there was this dichotomy between these grand promises of how fracking was reshaping geopolitics with the fact that it doesn't make money that there's this deep skepticism about the industry and this heavy short seller interest in it because the companies don't produce free cash flow. And so I thought that is a dichotomy worth exploring that a business can be changing the world yet, not be not make any money. And so I thought that was that was worth digging into who I dude you in this direction who who said, hey, you should be looking closely salad. You know, John Hampton. I know the name Johns longtime pal of mine who lives in Australia round, runs Bronte capital. And he's the one who used to say that Aubrey mcclendon was the most important guy in in America with again, some degree of hyperbole. But John was the one who first got me interested in Aubrey. And got me focused on Chesapeake dire financial condition. So he's an interesting character himself. Speaking of interesting characters. Oh, yes. His writing is always quite fascinating. I get his regular missive. And they're always..
Three Factors or Events that Affect the Stock Market
"Nine hundred ninety nine when the market overheated bobble number one in Alan Greenspan was late to the game of raising rates. Finally, smoking the market and creating bubble number two in the real estate market. The credit crisis ensued killing the market in two thousand and eight we're now in bubble number three. In all likelihood this market needs to go lower reverting back to the mean the historical average would take the SNP down to a stomach churning drop of thirty eight percent. So it can go higher long term. If you have the time. This would take you back to September twenty thirteen wiping out five years of gains and the last third scenario where stocks are discounted for the prospect of a recession in the coming two years fears the most logical right now recessions typically reduce corporate earnings by an average of twenty to thirty percent such that a dropped from today's level would give the SNP downside of about thirty percent. If you're in this retirement, red zone of two to ten years for retirement, a falling market in the last few years before retirement or in your first few years into it cannibalize is your nest egg due to retirement killer, one sequence rest the secrets of when you take losses. Relative to
"alan greenspan" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"I'm Ed Baxter. We've been listening to an interview with Carlisle group co founder, David Rubenstein and former fed chair Alan Greenspan here Greenspan explains why he thinks he got too much credit for the performance of the US economy. So the New York Times quoting you, and you're in your twenties, and then you became a conflict. Well, known alternate well-known consultant on Wall Street and on the side, you become close to or get the know a very famous writer named Hyon rand and what was the appeal of her to you. Fascinated. Her heroes. When I read her books. I was caught up in that science. Which said, basically. You can't have anything rational about human emotions. And I had an argument about uncertainty around ever since I met her. I kept saying human values irrational over not conceptually put together. She then proceeded took me apart piece by piece. Shoring contradictions in my position. But did you think she was smarter than you should never been strategy were smaller than we actually become very close? You obviously built a very good reputation on Wall Street because Richard Nixon president United States asks you to serve as the head of the council economic advisers, and you actually had agreed to do. So. But then something happened, the president Nixon is that right or something. I forgot. Nixon resigned and for. President can president. Ultimately, you got to be close to president Ford. But Ford lost the election to my former boss Jimmy Carter in nineteen seventy six and you went back to Wall Street is that right here. Pretty prominent now is the former head of the couch economic advisers, and then ultimately, President Reagan says to you why don't you come in and be the chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. Did you meet with Reagan before you accepted the offer? Well, I actually had met with him. Quite often during his campaign. I was part of the Reagan for president campaign staff. I got to work with them fairly closely. So you take the job and you held the job for. Eighteen or nineteen years. Eighteen and a half years. You were called by many, the maestro. And you were given a lot of credibility for the US economy being in such good shape. Did you ever think that people were giving you too much credit for being such a great mice show of the economy? Or you think they were pretty right? Thank our said. White. Last. You can't. Popularity. Basically related to what it is. You do. If you know if you don't have one hundred percent control of what happens as a kind of doing your court by the fluctuations. My major concern. I was Curtly. As I was getting much credit too much of the credit for what actually was going on. Said. Don't worry about it. It'll come out on the side in those years people often. I would say that's photograph. Alan Greenspan walking into the Federal Reserve building. If he has a big fat. Set of books with them or papers. That means he's about to make a historic Assyrian. It'd be has nothing very much. It means no historic decision. So was that any truth to the validity of you're carrying a lot of things into the my briefcase briefcase? My wife made me run. So it really was nothing to that theory. Of course, that was Alan Greenspan speaking with David Rubenstein host to Bloomberg's peer to peer conversations and co founder of the Carlisle group just ahead.
Dow's drop marks longest skid for blue chips in 3 months, amid Brexit and falling Apple shares
"Of the day weakness in technology again, apple for example, down two point six percent. The NASDAQ one hundred index down seven tenths of one percent. Former fed chair. Alan Greenspan says a rising US debt-burdened could derail the card expansion and warned the tight labor. Market could lift inflation. I think it's a different. Recalled stagflation. Had some of the characteristics
"alan greenspan" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money
"Capital One, what's in your wallet capital? One in a. Okay. Ryan, here's where I wanna start in discussing whether or not the global economy will be able to fend off another recession. I think normally before the last recession DeWitt communists, used to think about this was the economy's not doing well looks like a recession is coming and so central banks would start to lower interest rates and in doing so they would make it cheaper to borrow money. Your argument is that that might not work as well. The next time there's a recession can you tell us why? Sure. Well, you're absolutely right. Like, we're all used to you know, things start to look a little sour, Alan Greenspan. Or Ben Bernanke your whoever coming to the rescue knocking down interest rates a little bit. And getting the economy going again, you know, the problem that we face not just in the United States. But but really all over the world is that over the last thirty years interest rates have crept ever farther downward and so very early on during the global financial crisis central banks around the world cut their interest rate. It's all the way to zero and what you zero it's really difficult to go much below that you can go a little bit into negative territory. But funny stuff starts to happen with the banks. Then. Yeah. And also because zero percent is literally free to borrow money. So if that's not working if that's not doing right exactly what we would have hoped would have happened is that we we have the global recession then growth springs back really quickly. And so then since we're able to kind of reload the gun, right and put interest rates backup. So they'll have room to cut them in the next downturn. Unfortunately growth over the last decade has been so weak that they really haven't been able to do that. And so even in the US where rates have gone up more than elsewhere. We're still only at around two percent. And that's just that's just not enough to get the economy going again when the next storm comes okay, so monetary policy might essentially be out of firepower. Let's now talk about fiscal policy. This is when the government either spends money to get the economy going again, or it gives people money back. In tax cuts and hopes that they spend the money and that gets the economy going, again, we'll fiscal policy be available to fight the next recession. Well, technically, it will be available. It will be an option there for governments. Most governments can borrow it super super cheap rates. And so it's not a huge deal for them technically to think about adding a little bit of deficit spending in injecting that money into the economy. The problem is that to really get a big fiscal boost. You know, you've got to have people in the legislature saying, all right? We think this is important. We're gonna pass this law. We're gonna pass this infrastructure Bill. If you look in the US, it's kind of a perverse that we've been running bigger deficits over the past couple years because right now the economy is sort of in in good shape. But those deficits are pushing up the amount of debt that the US government has has. So when the next recession comes around some people are going to be saying, you know, what we really can't afford this. And I I don't think that's right. I think the government can't afford it. But that political argument is going to be a lot more salient. The next time around. Yeah, that's interesting. So you're saying that because governments have more debt now that they'll be reluctant to take out more debt again when there's a recession to spend, and it kind of leads me into my next question, which is what about the debt that like people and companies have in other words, people in companies in the private sector, private sector debt as opposed to government debt. How does that influence the ability to fight the next recession? Well, it's another really big issue. Right. Because as as we said before the the way that a lot of this stimulus policy works is encouraging people to to go out and borrow and by that car now, but of households or companies are already really in debt, then it's going to be much less attractive for them to add to that that debt pile..
Talk of entitlement reform takes over as midterms near
"There were not politically, correct. But they've done what needed to be done in order to unleash the animal spirits. Alan greenspan's. Alan Greenspan, Stephanie. It's pretty tough to argue with him. Are you sure he said he loves the Trump tax cuts or you gotta sit there constructive. Now. He loved he loved it. They were politically incorrect. Now, what he doesn't love is that we haven't done entitlement reform to accompany them. I wanna you know, it's coming to that. But he loves the Trump tax cuts one of the things about entitlement reform that we need is it surprises me the young people. Don't get more engaged on the entitlement reform ya you know, they sort of latch onto issues that are very very popular in the news. Entitlement reform or something I think people should really care about. Listen, the issue with the tax cut is it's a clear positive for corporate America. The tax code as it was far too complicated. But the amount of taxes that they cut you could ask Jamie Dimon. He will say, listen, I'm glad we got the tax cut. We didn't need it to be as much as it is because we are facing a massive deficit, and as far as the tax cut goes we're seeing corporations do so well two weeks ago. I the business council summit there hasn't been a hundred fortune five hundred there tickled pink, and they're saying they're spending there investing hiring and even without the tax cuts. Deregulation has been a huge positive for corporate America because remember in the Obama administration. It was not a pro business administration. And even if companies weren't faced with new taxes, the threat of regulations of threat more could be coming down the pike was preventing companies from spending. You're definitely seeing corporate America in a very good place book at the stock market one of the reasons the stock market is doing so. Well, suddenly. Corporations have twice as much cash on the books. So it is a positive obviously have a very tight labor market time to see wages push up more than they have this far. So Stephanie role year in the second bluest bubble in America. I always think that silicon valley's a bluer bubble the Manhattan, but I just had Marsha Blackburn on she's had a nineteen point swing in her direction over two weeks, Heidi Heitkamp has fallen apart. And she did a pratfall releasing the name of abuse survivors against their will yesterday that is blowing up. You've got mic. Sally surging ahead of cinema. Do you sense that the blue tide is a thing of the past? And that in fact, we're looking at it read time, I've talked about this a lot. I've never seen a massive Blue Wave coming thing that distresses me isn't are we going massive, bluer massive read the thing that distresses me is the hollowing out of the center on both sides. That is what I think is the most concerning and I think we're seeing it in both parties. Did you read David Brooks piece yesterday about the eight percent on the left? China today. Oh, are you really? Because that is that's the most interesting thing. But the noise comes from those two groups, that's the note, and by the way, our cable channels both left and right that noise. I don't know how we're ever going to break out of this you you are one hundred percent, correct. On a us. An example for you on Monday when I woke up I wasn't on TV. I heard what not the media thought of what Hillary Clinton said on Monday on Sunday about her husband, and Monica Lewinsky. Okay, saying it was not an abusive power. So I said via Twitter take something clear what the president of the United States has a sexual encounter with an intern. It doesn't matter how she behaved, blah, blah, blah. That's an abusive pallet. I'm not saying I'm not saying it's a soft. It is an abuse of power. When I tell you, Hugh, I got a nihil lead on Twitter, and I should hold on a second. Because of course, I've wanted what about Trump what about companies both things can be true abuse. Power is not unique to one industry wants sport, one one nation or one political party. But the tribalism we are seeing the absolute forgiveness of one side and an assault of another. Stop. It's unreasonable. It is going to be very difficult to break away from the profit motive of super serving the six in the eight percent. But I'm glad you're doing the David. That's what that's why I watched up and he going do the David Brooks. Brooks column is the smartest thing I've read in ages. Hey, man payments. Definitely real good to talk to you s rule on Twitter American, of course on MSNBC. Don't go anywhere. I'm coming right back America time to keep talking about these midterms. The red tide is coming everything
Could Social Security Actually Run Out of Money?
"Ray Lucia show. And that is where I want to begin today. A brief discussion about social security starting with a brief history. And then we'll get into some of the other issues that I think are also important at least as it relates to your retirement is a social security and insurance policy or can it be treated as an investment? We'll cover that. Dr wait vows done a great job of this going back to two thousand fifteen he wrote a brief history of social security. There's no way I could do it Justice without stealing from his stuff. So I will. But he points out a couple of things that a lot of people neglect to realize and that is that social security benefits that are not just for retirees there's benefits for disabled workers. Spouses, young children of deceased or disables worker disabled workers spouses survivor benefits. It was not always that way. Remember, another original social security act of nineteen thirty five and it created retirement benefits. Only four the retired worker became eligible at age sixty five those ages have now changed to sixty six or sixty seven depending on how old you are. Right now. Younger millennials. Of course, we'll have to wait until they're sixty seven. My full retirement age is sixty six for social security purposes. Now in one thousand nine hundred eighty nine congress, then passed amendments to extend benefits to spouses and minor children. And this is what happens in politics. Once you start giving away benefits. The giveaways expand. I'm not suggesting that's bad. I'm just suggesting that it is a fact of life. And now, it's become a major problem. The nineteen seventy-five social security trustee report estimated that the old age survivors disability insurance trust funds would be depleted by nineteen Seventy-nine magin that we're in two thousand eighteen and it was a problem and seventy seven congress enacted amendments to deal with the impending financial problems. The amendments increase the payroll tax increase the amount of income eligible for the payroll tax and reduce the benefits slightly this fixed. The problem until the economic slowdown of the early nineteen eighties which meant the trust fund again faced a serious short term. Funding problems is starting to sound a tad bit familiar back then Alan Greenspan, who has you all know was the longest serving. Federal Reserve chairman. Headey commissioned to examine the problem in nineteen eighty three. The Greenspan commission called for and then congress subsequently passed into law a gradual increase in the full retirement age from sixty five to sixty seven as I just mentioned. They also increase the social security tax rates. And now, you know, where we stand today social security charges twelve point four percent. Medicare, of course, charges two point nine percent. Those numbers are split evenly between the employee and the employer. Meaning that if you are both yourself employed. You have a fifteen point three percent bogey on one hundred percent of your income up to nearly one hundred and thirty thousand dollars. Think about that one. You make one hundred and thirty grand any get clipped by fifteen percent of that ten percent will be thirteen thousand at another sixty five hundred dollars six thousand nineteen. Hey roundup. It's twenty thousand bucks in it increases every year with a little inflation. Bob. Think about a self employed one hundred and thirty thousand bucks twenty grand right off the top only half of which is income tax deductible. Is one of the reasons why we talk so often about incorporations and defined benefit plans. And all that stuff back. I've got an Email on that very subject. I'll go on it should come. As no surprise says Dr foul that funding shortages will happen again at some point. Social security. United States is meant to be a pay as you go. Meaning each generation of current workers pay for the benefits of current retirees three trends will make this task increasingly difficult despite the presence surpluses and those surpluses are dwindling. Sorry I had to get a slug of caffeine. I the baby boomer cohort is of unprecedented size and is currently reaching traditional retirement ages. Yeah, that's me. I should be retired. But I'm not gonna do it. Well, I'm sort of semi. Although it doesn't feel like semi. Although I, you know, I take a couple of days off here in a couple of days off there. But I'm still pretty much working. And that is the solution, by the way, keep working. Anyway, let me move on. Because this is interesting stuff. Second life spans are becoming longer. Meaning retiring baby boomers will have long retirements. That's right. Third fertility rates are decreasing during night of the baby boom women were having between three and a half and four kids on average during their lifetime. The thousand fifteen trustees report expects the long run for tilde rates, the United States to be just to know words, rubbing half as many babies, therefore that's half of many working stiffs paying for those of us that are theater, theoretically, getting a social security benefit. In two thousand there were four workers per retired beneficiary this had fallen to three and a half workers by twenty fourteen. And it's predicted that two point six contributors per retiree. By twenty thirty and other words for every retired person two and a half people have to go to work to pay for that person that is unsustainable with recipients of disability benefits added in they expect that number to drop the two point two percent for every working person that gets social security benefits. There will need to be two people working. Now.
Powell sets Fed's course with data-based judgment
"I'm Barbara Kusak And I'm. Charlie Pellett at Bloomberg world headquarters records on. Wall, Street as Jerome Powell was front and center at the Fed's Jackson Hole conference his first appearance at, the annual, event as. Fed chair and with more here's. Bloomberg's Vinny Del Giudice Powell said America's economic fundamentals look strong support the case for further gradual. Rate hikes he, said he sees no evidence of overheating, a comment some. Traders took his dove-ish Powell also praised the performance of former fed chair Alan Greenspan for keeping interest rates low in the, late nineteen ninety s Greenspan
S&P 500, Nasdaq close at records as Powell outlines rate-hike path
"Records on Wall Street as Jerome Powell was front and center at the Fed's Jackson Hole conference his first appearance at the annual event as fed chair and with more here's, Bloomberg's Vinny Del Giudice Powell said America's economic fundamentals look strong and support the case for further gradual, rate hikes she's no evidence of overheating. A comment some traders took his dovish Powell also praised the performance of former fed chair Alan Greenspan for. Keeping interest rates low in the late nineteen ninety s Greenspan spotted a productivity boom created by expanding use of. Computers before it was clear in. The economic
"alan greenspan" Discussed on WBT Charlotte News Talk
"News here on the financial symphony to grab a headline that's making its way around and toss it out to richard and get his take on the situation and see what his thoughts are here on the financial symphony richard former fed chairman alan greenspan says the us economy is out of whack and likely headed for another downturn do you agree with the the former chairman yeah i read that article and what greenspan implied was that we're moving towards stagflation he said demographic changes you know the omnibus spending bill and higher interest rates are are slowing the economy down despite the benefits that are being reap from trump's tax plan a tax cut plan all those regulatory rollback so you know i'm expecting a global financial reset at some point and i think that that will likely trigger a collapse in stocks and bonds and as well as the derivatives market in fact warren buffett referred to derivatives as a financial weapons of mass destruction but i also believe that the demise of our dollar is the world's reserve currency is a certainty at some point as well since the goal back into the dollar ceased in nineteen seventyone it's lost like ninety eight percent in real terms when measured against gold and franc's the dollars down like seventy seven percent since nineteen one so unfortunately the dollar it's backed by massive debts and in my opinion because of that it's living on borrowed time so you know i don't have a crystal ball but global events would indicate that something is amiss so it's better to be prepared than not being prepared you see most of you evaluate your portfolio based on your return you're asking the basic question you know did i make money while that's one way to judge your investments it's also important to evaluate the level of risk you incur when pursuing those returns and therein lies the problem you can't control for return but you.
"alan greenspan" Discussed on WAFS Biz 1190
"Of gunnison capital management we're always waiting for something in the market every single day right the markets on hold awaiting this earth moves that will bend the market wildly one way or another other well on might was the north korean summit today is wins day and it's the fed statement that they will make later on today our important are central banks around the world do the stock market and to the bond markets well it brings the whole market to its knees as they breathlessly await that statement from the fed will they change one word here one word will they become more hawkish meaning on the warpath the raise rates or will they become more dovish they'll become less apt to raise rates anytime soon well today we fully expect another point rate hike today and then of course everyone await chairman jerome powell press conference now that name doesn't roll off my tongue yet in my lifetime i've seen alan greenspan i've seen ben bernanke and i saw the woman who replaced ben bernanke janet yellen jerome powell i'm still getting used to this guy but i think he's pretty much a dove like bernanke like yellen will see what he has to say the bank central bank right now tilting toward four increases in two thousand and eight eighteen that's what some people say and they keep insisting no there's only going to be three so we'll see listen to every word hanging on every word when that compelling statement comes out later this morning well theresa may over in the uk hey narrowly devoid avoided defeat over the e you withdraw bill after conservative rebels accepted significant concessions from the government on the meaningful vote when it returns to the house of lords next week so interpreted that means brexit is still on as the u k will be departing and saying goodbye to the european union and there there are a one big jock me they're open borders all of this kind of thing we've got at least for now they're continue on their course of li ming core ppa now this is different from cpi cpi is what you pay what the consumer pays ppi is what the producers pay this is the inputs into what you buy ppi rises faster than anticipated may producer price index plus zero point five percent i gotta believe a lot.
"alan greenspan" Discussed on KBNP AM 1410
"Wilson bloomberg stocks columnist art now let's go to mr tom keene he is the host of bloomberg surveillance he's speaking with alan greenspan former chairman of the federal reserve in washington dc lengthy interview with alan greenspan of course the chairman the former leader of the federal reserve system and much more alan greenspan on the political economics the turbulence silence that we all see now across american politics for that matter the global economic system as well chairman greenspan wonderful to see you again i must flip here in less monetary and go immediately to the debt and the deficit has heilbronner would've called it of years ago of this nation you celebrate the life of pete peterson one of our leaders and saying watch out for the debt watch out for the debt and yet we went on and on a hundred and fifty five billion in one thousand nine hundred eighty seven when you took over a stewardship of the fed and now we're out two trillion dollar deficits when do they really affect america sooner rather than later important issues until it becomes obvious consequences such as inflation beginning to emerge the political system does not respond because confronted with a choice of increasing spending and cutting taxes or the reverse it's very obvious at the vast majority of the congress and the president usually come out in favor of one i would call loose fiscal policy and pete winston scrap to that one hundred percent why have we not seen that fear of inflation the fear of higher interest rates you've always been more balanced about an inflation east you've never been the doom it's right around the corner it's right around the corner but why haven't we seen it yet is we've migrated from four hundred billion eight hundred billion and now trillions of dollars there's always a considerable lag involved in it depends to a very large extent on what the state of politics when you have say conjoining republicans and democrats a specific policy almost respective what the data doing that kits implemented but today we have most severe differences differences about saying that i've seen back to the war but just been part of a book co author of a book on the economic history of the.
"alan greenspan" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The organization and she was appointed by president obama is not unusual though four let's say democratic president to appoint a fed share that may be a republican president comes in and he keeps that will fed chair two recent examples reagan kept paul volcker was a democrat and bill clinton kept alan greenspan republican so there is that history of bipartisanship with the fed which has always been regarded semi independent institution we do know their president then candidate donald trump on the campaign trail he often talked about the fat and kinda went after the fed so maybe were not surprised that he wants to kind of make his mark here right exactly he he said that two janet yellen is more political than hilary clinton so yeah so it's what so far though wall street has been quite reassured by his choices for the fed we've seen a make some pretty crazy picks for various cabinet posts when it comes to the fed it seemed as though he's been taken of a middle of the road approach we can see that with his jerome powell who is a republican but was very much of a sort of centrist figure actually worked for the bipartisan policy center before he joined the fed and was an obama appointee and trump is trying to elevate him and randall quarrels is wall street lawyer becomes onto the fed has isis vicechair of supervision and now we have marfan good french not yet been confirmed he's a very respected monetary congress from carnegie mellon university so these are all the kind of picks you know they have a republican tinged to them but they're they're nothing that's good alarm people like whoa the fed's going crazy these days so far exactly so far we trump has a history of making some pretty out of the box decisions and there is this re residual fear among people that he could set to revert to form the fed sort of ways treat other parts of government cut a blow things up well and you mentioned in your in your article you talk about john taylor who was who president trump is considering tax they've done the fat but he.
"alan greenspan" Discussed on Wall Street Business Network AM 760
"Not unusual though four let's say democratic president to appoint the fed chair than maybe a republican president comes in and it keeps that world failure to recent examples reagan kept called volcker was a democrat and bill clinton kept alan greenspan republican so there is a history of bipartisanship with the fed which has always been regarded as a semi independent institution we do know the president then candidate donald trump on the campaign trail he often talked about the fat and kinda went after the fed so maybe were not surprised that he wants to make his mark here right exactly he he said that two janet yellen is more political than hilary clinton so what did so far though wall street has been quite reassured by his choices for the fed we've seen a make some pretty crazy pigs for various cabinet posts when it comes to the fed is seemed as though he's been taken serve a middle of the road approach we can see that with his jerome powell is a republican but was very much of a sort of centrist to figure actually worth the bipartisan policy center before he joined the fed and wasn't obama appointee and trump is trying to elevate him and randall corals is wall street lawyer comes onto the fed has is as vicechair of supervision and now we have marfan good friends not yet been confirmed he's a very respected monetary economist from carnegie mellon university so these are all the kind of picks they have a republican tinged to them but very there nothing that's good alarm people like wool the fed's going crazy these days so far exactly so firing trump has a history of making some pretty out of the box decisions and there is this writ residual fear among people that he could sort of revert to form with the fed entreated so the ways treat other parts of government cut a blow things up well and you mentioned in your in your article you talk about john taylor who was who president trump is considering tax they've done the fat but he.
"alan greenspan" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"President obama is not unusual though four let's say democratic president to appoint a fed chair than maybe a republican president comes in and he keeps that world fedja two recent examples reagan kept paul volcker was a democrat and bill clinton kept alan greenspan republican so there is that history of bipartisanship at the fed which has always been regarded semi independent institution we do know the president then candidate donald trump on the campaign trail he often talked about the fed and kinda went after the fed so maybe were not surprised that he wants to make his mark here right exactly he he said that two janet yellen has more political than hilary clinton so yeah so so what did so far though wall street has been quite reassured by his choices for the fed we've seen a make some pretty crazy picks for various cabinet posts when it comes to the fed it seemed as though he's been taken serve a middle of the road approach we can see that with his jerome powell is a republican but was very much of a sort of centrist figure actually worked for the bipartisan policy center before he joined the fed and was an obama appointee and trump is trying to elevate him and randall quarrels is wall street lawyer the comes onto the fed has is isis vicechair of supervision and now we have marfan good friends not yet been confirmed he's a very respected monetary economist from carnegie mellon university so these are all the kind of picks know they have a republican tinged to them but they're they're nothing that's good alarm people just like wool the fed's going crazy tuesday sell far exactly so far we trump has a history of making some pretty out of the box decisions and there is this re residual fear among people that he could set of revert to form the fed entreat it's always treated other parts of government can a blow things up well and you mentioned in your in your article you talk about john taylor who was who president trump is considering tax they've done the.
"alan greenspan" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"He ran a global strategy for ubs before launching his own hedge funds in the early nineties when put up spectacular numbers felix also runs zulle off consulting out of zurich switzerland's he has been a member of barons round table for thirty years let's talk a little bit about the great financial crisis because what you said some really interesting things are both before and after and i i will discuss that a little bit heading into the crisis you were fairly bearish tell us tell us what the thought priceless was in the early 2000s before the financial well before we had a the asian crisis in the nineteen night late 1990s and the eu we had the alan greenspan running the fed and i knew alan greenspan before he became a fed chairman the he was an advisor to ubs at that time and we met there is three months to dishonest serve world affairs at the his focus will not that the appropriate but he he's a great the historian and i i detected because most of the time of the late seventies early '80s when we went from rising inflation to declining inflation and i ask the minutes of questions about deflationary processes and he was very concerned about the nozzle told maddie 1930's and from the on and you can really go back into statistic from 1987 on that trauma sought of guided monetary policy it was always too easy for way too long and this leads to the excesses that we have seen before id asian crisis then we had the 1998 with a big decline in the market and then we had the event as tcm russia and the.
"alan greenspan" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"He ran a global strategy for ubs before launching his own hedge funds in the early nineties where he put up spectacular numbers felix also runs zulle off consulting out of zurich switzerland he has been a member of barron's round table for thirty years let's talk a little bit about the great financial crisis because you you said some really interesting things brought before and after i wanna discussed that a little bit heading into the crisis you were fairly bearish tell us tell us what the thought priceless was in the early 2000s before the financial well before we had a the asian crisis in the nineteen 1990s and the eu we had the a alan greenspan running the fed and i knew alan greenspan before he became a fed chairman uh he was on at wiesel to you by us at that time and we met three months to discuss serve world affairs and the his focus will not that the appropriate but he he's a great a historian and icg to detach it because he goes the time of the late seventies early '80s when we went from rising inflation to declining inflation i ask them lots of questions about deflationary processes and he was very concerned about a novel told matty's 1930's and from there on and you can really go back into statistic from 1987 on that trauma sought of guided monetary policy it was always too easy for way too long and these leg the excesses that we have seen before id asian crisis then we had the 1998 with decline in the market and then we at the event as tcm russia and all at the an seven '98 your that's where i send undercover ed due to his fear he floppy uh lauded the system and and.
"alan greenspan" Discussed on WDRC
"For fifty per se meaning tax payers of paying for fifty percent of the taxpayers in the not paying taxes is that economically it is a mistake to deal which shop reductions in taxes now greenspan told fox business on thursday it said i quote we are we are a premature on fiscal stimulus whether it's tax cuts or expenditure increases we've got to get the debt stabilise before we can even think of of those terms greenspan said the that nobody is going to change what's going on in washington at this point you're not going to go to donald trump is trump i am alan greenspan you know hawaii us uh i'm a smart guy and i think you should listen to me i don't think we should give the american people i don't think we should give the tax uh companies the tax deduction we just saw what happened the g uh they they cut they cut the dividend by 50 percent so i think it was twenty five cents i think the cut a twelve and thirteen sand now that is a significant decrease they lost one hundred million dollars in market share 100 million die or more in that could be mistaken by that nominee but it was pretty significant village probably worse the number i'm giving you it said that stands in stark contrast with your jean please whole lower taxes by trump who during the campaign dodd himself as the king of how do you w self is the king of dat i quote trump argues that americans economy i called desperately needs massive tax cuts that's what trump is saying but how do we compete with the rest of the world that's what you asked asked the alan greenspan but alan greenspan as saying yes we have to compete with the rest of the world but we have to be smart about it and not on seed a tax deduction i don't see the deductions and spending that's going to solve this.
"alan greenspan" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The new iphones scheduled to be released later this year that news on apple has boosted tech shares across asia right now in seoul the cosby is they had two tenths of one percent in hong kong the hang seng better by threetenths of one percent in tokyo nikkei 225 higher by four tenths of one percent weakness though in china's main equity index with the shanghai composite down by one tenth of one percent and in sydney some of the week commodity sending the sx 200 down onehalf of 1 percent wti crude oil below forty nine dollars a barrel in electronic trading we are weaker by one percent to forty eight sixty six and the us 10year treasury trai leading in tokyo at a yield of two point two six percent he mini futures on the nasdaq one hundred given the news on apple are higher by seven tenths of one percent global news 24 hours a day powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries i'm doug prisoner this is bloomberg yeah come thales is a global economic advisor kim co he spoke about the economy with blueberries david gura and tom keene on bloomberg surveillance yucca mountain normal are we right now i mean we've got alan greenspan telling bloomberg did he he would call for circulars stagnation the idea of inflation dynamics growth dynamics what's the stories you see it are we in a time of recovering economic growth or not well tom i think we are in a time of recovery for global girl definitely but i also think we're still very much in the new normal anthony neutral that we've been talking about for years here at pivco so the new normal at the new truce really appalled low potential output growth and i see no signs that trend growth is picking up what we are seeing is a global cyclical recovery but not a recovery in productivity growth all underlying trend growth with definitely still in the new normal you neutral with respect to low inflation central banks us do struggling to get inflation back to target and that all translates into a very low neutral or equilibrium interest rate and i think that's fully reflected both in the bond market but also in the stock market because stocks wouldn't be up here if interest rates were not down there yeah compels are correspond on the front lines of the.
"alan greenspan" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Normal are we right now i mean we've got alan greenspan telling bloomberg did he he would call for circulars stagnation the idea of inflation dynamics growth dynamics what's the stories you see it are we in a time of recovering the economic growth or not while tom i think we are at a time of recovery folk lobi girl definitely but i also think we are still very much in the new normal anthony mutual that we've talked about for years here at pivco so the new normal at the neutral it's really about low potential output growth and i see no signs that trend growth is picking up what we are seeing is a global sick liquid recovery but not a recovery in productivity growth all underlying trend growth would definitely still in the new normal neutral with respect to low inflation central banks are still struggling to get inflation back to target and that all translates into a very low neutral or equilibrium interest rate and i think that's fully reflected both in the bond market but also in the stock market because stocks wouldn't be up here if interest rates were not down there yet compels are correspond on the front lines of the cold current see worth it said that's taking place here you file of dispatch you're from those from those frontlines he arkham give us a sense of of of who's winning we have this weaker dollar well clearly the trump administration is winning that code currency war you know it's a it's a code currency wall not a hot one because it's fought with words at with covert actions and i think markets fx markets clearly listened to the verbal intervention that we got from president trump from treasury secretary mnuchin from peter navarro trump's trade adviser late last year and early this year when.
"alan greenspan" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"That the as we were sitting here last year at this time we were debating larry summers versus janet yellen and at that did have an impact on the market is the market began to think larry summers might have a a different monetary policy approach us i do think there is a possibility here that the uncertainty is going to start to become a factor for the market but the point they think that's really important what you're making is that there's a link between paul volcker alan greenspan ben bernanke anke janet yellen in terms of experience policymakers people who are trained to do monetary policy which we might be breaking now and that is something which i think is important bruce liu history here this is before uh mr clooney this is look injured history scarlett okay i'll arthur our burns with colombia phd in as a real debate about how sherman burns did and then we guy who supported hubert humphrey supported jimmy car carter had a textron histories economic g will you miller nothing we've been down this route before in relatively recent history haven't we bruce well we've been down the road of having a fed chair sweb and succeeded in g william miller was one and was not trained as an economist i'd like to as a trained economists believe that that's the necessary qualification i don't think that is but i do believe experience and training do matter here and if we come with a new fed chair that doesn't have those characteristics as you were mentioning scout they'll need to rely more on the institution and if they don't they will potentially get us into trouble it's going to be interesting to see a good manager someone with financial market experience could do a good job at the fed but they need the institutional a backdrop to really rely on that was jp morgan securities chief economist bruce kasmin speaking with bloomberg's tom keene and scarlett fu coming up former whitewater investigator robert ray explains why he doesn't see any legal risk from donald trump junior's email controversy you can the all of leuver best stories at best go this is bloomberg skin from lyell honey he's still not smiling maybe he's not as miler here maybe he's just not a happy baby babies being a boy or maybe he's teething maybe it's this the face maybe he has autism.