20 Burst results for "Alan Blinder"
Bloomberg Radio New York
"alan blinder" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Big moment for the industry. Cannabis company cur relief CEO Matt Darren. He mentions restrictions. Cannabis companies can only advertise as long as they have a proper license passed through Twitter's approval process, only target jurisdictions where they are licensed to operate and must not target people below 21 years old. And that's not all. We're able to advertise certain products that are at a very de minimis amount of THC, things like our topicals. So most cannabis products can not be promoted. Still, most pot companies were quick to embrace the Twitter changes. Darren says, even with limitations at mark's real progress from when they couldn't advertise on any social media platform. Steve potus Bloomberg radio. And I am Susanna Palmer in the Bloomberg newsroom. China's GDP goal was not as ambitious as economists had expected. It's a modest 5% for the year. China's premier announced the goal for gross domestic product in his final report to the parliament which kicked off its annual meeting today. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were looking for a target above 5% following a rebound in consumer and business spending in China after the end of coronavirus restrictions. Alan blinder, Princeton University economist and former vice chair of the Federal Reserve is toning down his optimism on the U.S. economy. Blinder told the Bloomberg what goes up podcast that he's not as optimistic that the Federal Reserve can engineer a soft landing for the economy as it raises interest rates to tame inflation. I think they still have a chance, but it's a tougher chance. Than it was. While prices moderated in the second half of last year they didn't cool off as quickly as previously indicated by the numbers and blinders says that means there's reason to expect more rate increases. Still, he doesn't see the Central Bank hiking to 6% as some in the market are predicting. Former president Donald Trump said yesterday that he would not drop out of the 2024 presidential race, even if he was indicted in one of several investigations he's facing. Trump spoke with a group of reporters before his speech to the conservative political action conference in national harbor, Maryland. Ken stocks keep up the momentum from last week. The S&P 500 jumped 1.6% last week and marked its first winning week in the last four. But the consumer may be losing steam at this point, says Lindsey piegza, chief economist at Stifel Nicholas. We did see that pop in consumer activity at the start of the year, but at the same time we saw consumer confidence ticked down at the start of the year. So it doesn't appear as if the consumer is increasingly confident in their financial footing, it appears more as if we're seeing the consumers less stand, if you will, as households are drawn down the very last of savings, they're ramping up credit card debt. One of the things investors and economists will be keeping a close eye on will be the February jobs report, which comes out on Friday. Investors are waiting to hear what fed chair Jerome Powell has to say on Capitol Hill this week, but we're already getting some clues into his testimony. Bloomberg's Nathan Hager reports from Washington. The fed's semiannual report to Congress reiterates the message that the central banks committed to a 2% inflation target and that ongoing rate increases will be appropriate to reach a sufficiently restrictive monetary policy. The report also dives into why the jobs recovery has been so slow. It cites a higher than expected wave of retirements and slower population growth due to COVID and reduced immigration. In Washington, I'm Nathan Hager, Bloomberg radio. Global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. I'm Susanna Palmer. This is Bloomberg. But I know about hey
Bloomberg Radio New York
"alan blinder" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"No word on when the pipeline will be back in operation. Keystone carries oil from Canada to Cushing, Oklahoma, and then onward to Texas. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts and over 120 countries. I'm Mark crumpton, this is Bloomberg. Thank you so much, Mark. Coming up, we're going to talk with former fed vice chair Alan blinder about the fed decision next week as economic data point to increase chances of a recession on the horizon. This is balance of power on Bloomberg television and on radio. Markets, headlines, and breaking news 24 hours a day. At Bloomberg dot com, the Bloomberg business app and at Bloomberg quick tape. This is a Bloomberg business lash. I'm John Tucker in the Bloomberg news room with this Bloomberg business flash stocks are higher, but off the session highs right now, but did have economic data today, some signs the labor market may be cooling one of the key factors Federal Reserve's officials are watching to decide on whether or not they're going to be able to notch down their tightening campaign. The rebound in the S&P 500 follows a 5 day sell off, the put the gauge on the cusp of an important technical indicator its average price over the past 100 days. Right now the S&P 500 twenty points higher that's a half a percent being led by technology the NASDAQ 100 also up 98 points. That's a 9 tenths of a percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average 145 points higher. That was at four tenths of a percent. And the 30 year
The Paul Finebaum Show
"alan blinder" Discussed on The Paul Finebaum Show
"Are an auburn feel free to pull up in the feed of high house here, we'd love to have you and more eagle. Thank you very much to Conan. I think there's a reasonable chance we will be there early in the season. And you guys want to go to the house with me? Nothing like spending. Which house was that again? The theta, theta Chi. Yeah, we're all over in theta Kai. And I get myself into something I shouldn't be. Should I not be going to the theta Kai house? I'm going. I don't care what anybody says. Check out what Josh is. Pensacola. Hey Josh. What's going on? Hey, good afternoon. Hey, man. I'm just moved to Pensacola man just letting you know I grew up reading the Birmingham Birmingham news with you all the time. Thank you. Brody cool lived grew up at John croll's big O branch. Those guys are a great place up there. But more to talk a little bit about Jalen Melrose, I mean, you know, I think he's got outstanding upside, I know he's hopefully he'll get some mop up duties early. But this guy, I hope we don't lose him in the border. I think he's really can run with it can throw, what do you think, Paul? Yeah, I mean, everything I hear about him is going to Josh. Let me ask you a question. You grew up at the ranch. I sure did. I played, I played this. And I was a basketball player there. Played baseball with Brody there. Well, I gotta tell you. Josh, I'm sure you know John. John coral invited a couple of us up to the ranch for one day. This was about 25 years ago. And we were my wife was with me and a couple of friends. We were obviously very close to John and wanted to spend some time up there. So we got on a bunch of horses and I can't remember what part of the ranch the horses are. And let me assure you my experience riding horses was nil. So we all start galloping in my horse gets away from the pack. And I don't know where there's a highway near at some point. And my horse started running toward the highway. And I thought, I mean, what would you do, Randy? If your horse is heading toward a highway. I jumped. I mean, we were about a hundred yards. I just took a perfect and by the way, it was nearly perfect. I could have killed myself, but it was zero. I landed perfectly on a gravel road in my ankle gave out, and of course it smashed my head into the gravel, and there was blood all over me. But again, when you consider what can happen, jumping off a horse, so all of a sudden, the group comes back and John corll, who's an amazing guy. He said, you got to get back on that horse. I got, I said, John, I got blood all over me. I couldn't even see the blood was in my. I said, I'm not getting back on that horse. He said, well, you'll never ride again if you don't. I said, well, that's quite all right. But my question to the audience in the year, Randy is this. The horse that was trying to get away. Where do you think the horse was? A horse was standing right by me. The horse. As soon as I jumped off, the horse stopped. Which made me look like a complete fool. Turned out, I did have a concussion. I mean, they actually, I was like, I said, hey, John, I really was hurt. I have been on a horse since. But that horse really take me off. Why couldn't the horses kept going? You were listening to the Paul fine bomb show podcast. Going to have all you hear, Calvin is a New Jersey Calvin. Hey, Calvin. Hello. Hello. Good afternoon. All right, great fan of you, man. I appreciate you on by yourself. Perspective. But that one vacuum question. And I'm in Alabama saying, I ref Alabama every year, but I just recently found out that he never hires any black high position coaches such as offensive coordinator or defensive coordinator. In your elaborate on that? Yeah, this is always, I remember having a conversation a couple of about two years ago was Sylvester croom, who was who broke the color barrier in the SEC back in 2004. And he made that similar point, not specifically toward Alabama, but he said, he said, coordinator, you have to be a coordinator before you can be a head coach. That is normally the case. I am thinking through my head here on Alabama and I know his two coordinators, his three, four, most of those Korea, I'm thinking through it, as you speak, and I can't come up with one, but. I'm at a loss because I think your statement is correct. Wow. Now as soon as I say that, I ask you this. I mean, he may have, and I'm not talking about assistant head coaches because that is a different position than offensive or defensive coordinator. But I'd have to go back and check the year by year, but off the top of my head at Alabama. I don't think I can give you an answer in the affirmative. Okay. All right. You know, I mean, when I found that out, I was like, disturbed a little bit because you don't get any black talented players. I mean, I know we have white and black, but sure. Not to have black, but it brings up a question and I'm sure somebody out there is coming up with their own response, but when you look at somebody like Nick Saban, I mean, how do you differentiate when you're trying to make a value judgment? Because I would say about Sabin, I think his record on race is exemplary. Now. Could you find fault with a lot of people? Yeah, you sure you can. But should you, I think, is the question. Well, you know, I don't want to look for fault. Like I said, Alabama is my college team. But I was just when I heard. Well, hold on a second. I just thought of something. I think I have an exception, I believe Mike loxley was loxley, his offensive coordinate. I'm trying to remember, he may have been a couple of years ago. So I have to double check loxley's actual position, but I believe I believe loxley was the offensive coordinator. And not only that, and I'm not chilling here for saving, but I remember talking to my loxley a couple of years ago and he told me that he was a Maryland at the time and I believe he's a president of the black coaches association. And he had just pointed he had just told me that he had told me that day that Nick Saban had agreed to be on his board. So I don't think it's a fair statement so there is one. A couple of years ago, loxley, who is now the Maryland head coach. I hope that hope that clears up at least that issue. Well, you know, I mean, certainly it helps and I certainly appreciate that. Appreciate your insight and everything. But usually when you're in those positions. But let me ask you this question. Hold on. I'm thinking of another one. I'm trying to remember whether he was. He wasn't the coordinator, or was he the coordinator? Mel Tucker. No, I don't Tucker was on coach Saban's staff, but I believe Kirby smart was the coordinator at the time. I will tell you this and you can, and we all have, we all can find fault with Nick Saban. I would say that would be one area of Nick Saban's career.
The Paul Finebaum Show
"alan blinder" Discussed on The Paul Finebaum Show
"As former secretary Gates with the overhaul of the current model. But one story that really stood out that I wanted to ask you about is I think you did the first major interview with Kevin Warren as he was ascending to the Big Ten commissionership. And he has been so much at the epicenter of conflict and controversy starting with COVID. And now he is perhaps days away from the biggest television conference deal in the sports history. Particularly curious your impressions of him and what he has accomplished because that first time's article really seemed to set the tone and maybe drew a lot of animus from others around the sport. I remember we had a he and I had this conversation with not long after we became commissioner, but it was before he in the Big Ten made the decision at first to postpone the football these are not play football back in 2020. And then that conversation you're just talking about what are we like essentially to be the first black man to be a commissioner in the power? 5. We were talking about his background and how on earth he wound up in college sports because he's not a college sports lifer if you will. He came out of a couple of decades of working in the NFL as a lawyer by training and I found him to be thoughtful and engaged and interesting. Back then and I think that no one was really sure when he and I first talked of what would come of that football season. He wouldn't sure thank you wasn't sure no one was entirely certain how this was all going to go. I think that he is had quite a challenging couple of years as you alluded to. But I think that there's a sense out there that a new TV deal could do a lot to reshape perceptions of him because he went through a lot of grief after the decision to postpone the season and then revive the season. He found a big tin getting dragged into presidential politics with Donald Trump trying to claim credit for it. Just kind of the whole country has been in the vortex for the last two years and it seems like Warren was in a particularly dire just given the chaos all around him. And I mentioned now in his piece on Kevin Warren, I will also mention the piece you did on Greg sankey, which appeared right around the beginning of the college football playoff. I mean, it was an epic Sunday piece for The New York Times. And certainly it's someone you knew, maybe a little bit better than Kevin Warren, but I don't know, because there were so many things happening at that moment in time with the playoffs. I don't think we ever got a chance to talk about it. But I was curious and I think I am curious still about your reporting on that story and just your impressions of the commissioner of the southeastern conference, Greg sankey. I mean, we were in the story that thank you is known for being really strategic in this thinking. And we conducted a couple of dozen interviews for that story of people from around the SEC from around the country who have known sankey back since he was working as a compliance officer in Gulf Coast at northwestern state and Louisiana. And the consistent picture we heard of him was someone who doesn't say more than he needs to say. He's a long-term thinker. He's known for getting into the details. At the same time, I remember talking to one executive about him and the most detailed interaction. They remembered was about how he was an apostle for a certain brand of legal pads. That kind of told me, all I needed to know about was that he swept the small stuff, but he's also not known for big time theatrics and meetings or anything like that. Just known as an operator. He played college sports a little bit himself. He was a pitcher. Baseball player were in Texas. He understands the system he grew up in the system. So he's a little he's unlike Warren in that way. He really came up through the ranks of college sports. So you've got an SEC commissioner who is steeped in NCAA policies and procedures and history in a Big Ten commissioner who is for all intents and purposes and the new guy on the block or at least one of the new guys. And what I find so interesting about these two and they're at the epicenter of the sport, and there's this Titanic battle, at least among some of us watching for supremacy and of course Kevin Warren, as you pointed out, was a protege of the man who handed the gavel to Greg sankey, Mike's life. Yeah, I mean, he was when Kevin Warren was a young lawyer. He worked with 5. Quite closely. He still considers him a mentor. So in a lot of ways, the saliva legacy still looms over college sports, I mean, thank you was hired at the SEC by Mike slide. He was brought in to help clean up the SEC because he had this reputation as kind of a no nonsense compliance rules guy. In Warren trained, if you will, under slides. So in a lot of ways, like saliva still having enormous influence over college sports all these years later. We could talk about so many things and we'll continue this another time, but Alan blinder, I didn't want it to be make less or minimize the importance of your piece on the four Alabama players, but I did want to get your thoughts on some other very important issues. It's always great to have you on. Be well, talk to you soon. My pleasure. Thanks for having me. Alan blinder, one of the best out there from The New York Times, his peace on Alabama and the four players is really it's both fascinating and troubling all the same. We'll
The Paul Finebaum Show
"alan blinder" Discussed on The Paul Finebaum Show
"And we are back. Second hour is live. We still have a few weeks ago before the so called season. But a story today in The New York Times gave all of us a reminder to have difficult and cruel this game has been over many, many years. The headline of The New York Times, they made history at Alabama, but football stardom had a price, four fixtures of Alabama, including a former coach who replaced Paul Bryant. Had to deal with CTE and just an extraordinary piece by Alan blinder who cover sports these days, formally a new side reporter. He has been in Scotland recently covering the British open. He's covered to live tour. He's been the media days. And he joins us now. Alan, you've been busy. We appreciate your time. It's always great to check in with you. Hey, thanks for having me. Let's start from the beginning in relation to the story today. And how did you find out about this and obviously several of the families were cooperative in helping tell what is an absolutely chilling story? Some months ago that ray Perkins had died in December of 2020 and that his family had decided to donate his brain to a group of researchers in Massachusetts who specialize in CTE and the results came back in recent months and they wanted to come forward with them one of Perkins daughters Rachel actually works for a group called the concussion legacy foundation, which she became involved in after her father after he deteriorated after his death. And the family you wanted to come forward and speak in the times because they were hoping to encourage other people who had played football to donate their brains to researchers after their death because CTE, while we know a lot more about it than we used to, it's the disease that can not be diagnosed until after someone dies. So it's not just a function of getting an MRI or a CT scan or some blood work. The only way that researchers can sort out whether someone has a disease or not is to study their actual brain after death. So the family wanted to come forward to encourage other people to donate their brains. And in the piece, there's a picture of this team from coach Bryan and 5 different players and they're all well known in Alabama circles. In addition to coach Perkins, Ken stabler, Dennis homan, who was a fabulous receiver, Steve bauman, and Paul crane. And now three of those, if I understand correctly, Allen have been confirmed CTE. Yes, I mean, stabler we've known for a couple of years had CTE that was confirmed after his death several years ago. Ray Perkins, the brain examination results came back recently and they showed a CTE same thing with Paul crane, who actually died just before ray Perkins did in 2020. Steve Bowman had talked about how he thought he had CTE, his brain has not been studied as a part of this project up in Massachusetts. And Dennis homan's family believes he has given to symptoms and they intend to donate his brain once once he dies. And the family members in this in your piece were very clear. I mean, these are these are prominent families connected to Alabama history and you can't get any more prominent than being the family of the former head coach. But I'll let you tell the story, but it didn't seem like as disappointing and tragic as all this is. Nobody's playing the blame game, are they? No, no. I mean, what we are what we are seeing is that these are our men who came to play in Tuscaloosa, 60 some odd year, 50, 60 years ago. At the time before CTE was well understood as it is now. No one is playing the blame game at the college level of saying that Alabama knew something should have done more. Anything like that. In fact, these families have been pretty emphatic that they still revere football. They'd like to see some changes to the sport that I can see changes, especially to how it's coached and played with children, but they are quite emphatic that they still revere the game. They love the game. I mean, the Perkins family still goes to plenty of games and Tuscaloosa and Dennis homan, his grandson, the long snapper at Alabama. I mean, these are not families putting great distance between themselves at the sport. In fact, a lot of them say the sport is the reason their lives have been as extraordinary as they've been. Ray Perkins basically rose up poverty in Mississippi, came to play in Tuscaloosa because he wanted to play for Bear Bryant. And he goes on to an extraordinary career as a player and then as a coach and he coached to the Alabama he coached the New York Giants and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He had an extraordinary life in his family traces it back to football and they are, of course, deeply disturbed by the findings from this group in Boston, but they wanted to make them known and to advance research and encourage conversations like the one we're having now. Alan blinder was this covers college sports, among other things, for The New York Times. Alan, I wanted to deviate from your piece today for just a second because you've had a unique perch in college athletics being able to interview leaders such as Mark emirate, others who have been involved
Bloomberg Radio New York
"alan blinder" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Nominal neutral fed funds rate And then therefore into a restrictive policy stance are based on viewers that bed needs to get the nominal fit funds rate above the inflation rate they need to get positive real rates and that they need to get that above what we think a neutral setting is And that really that is the only way to be able to tame demand and inflation And if you look at our inflation profile in the middle of next year we have four PC around three and a half percent So in our view it means that at the very least the fed needs to get to three and a half percent on the fed funds rate our baseline is 3.6% but I think that there's risk actually stood higher Megan do you think that they could actually get to three and a half to 3.6% I think certainly they could And to Matt's point a lot of this is going to be conditional on the inflation path The way the fed needs to be thinking about this isn't real policy terms So if inflation ends next year at 4% for example above where consensus may be a fed policy rate of three and a half percent means a -50 basis point real policy rate And that's certainly not restrictive indeed It's relatively accommodative if you think that neutral is between zero and 50 basis points or so So really in our view it depends so much on that inflation trajectory If inflation comes in above where the market is currently pricing where many economists are expecting certainly that really does pose upside risk to where the fed funds rate could go Really posing again those upside risks to where economists are currently thinking fed funds could go and where the market is currently pricing it Hold on this is a really critical question that Megan brings up and Matt want to come back to you on this We caught up with professor Roma of NYU this morning And he said the fed should be targeting three to 4% inflation Do you think we get a feel for that in the news conference Not what they are targeting They'll say it's 2% I want to understand what they will tolerate Matt what do you think they will tolerate through to the end of 23 Yeah I think there's no way that the fed at this point during her in the near term suggests that they're willing to tolerate much higher inflation And the reason is you're an environment where we're worried about inflation expectations under unaccurate to the upside To suggest that because we have high inflation the fed is simply going to accept higher inflation That really would risk a cycle that inflation moves higher inflation expectations move higher And one that they can not control and would ultimately force a more forceful stance Down the road I do think that there may be an open question of if they are able to get core PC inflation bullets might have percent called two two two three And at that point that's where they face this recession versus somewhat higher inflation tradeoff Do they accept 20 basis points higher inflation for example I think that that's something that we could see And in fact you kind of see that from their most recent SCPs in March which is the underlying rate just kind of ticking higher They don't actually get all the way back down to 2% by the end of the forecaster I think as long as inflation remains 3% or above that's unacceptable from their perspective They can't tolerate that And they have to do what it takes in order to get inflation high Matt also to catch up with you buddy As always man there's only that of Deutsche Bank to Megan swiper Megan thank you Thank you for your time today going into this fed decision coming up at around about 45 minutes or so There's two issues on the table here What they're about to do widely anticipated to deliver a 50 basis point rate hike and a static QT Give us a date We'll work then out Then from there that's where the consensus starts to break down towards the back end of the year Tom Once they get back to neutral expeditiously to use their word they've all been using Once they get there where do they go next and what were they tolerate That it's about the data coming in and particularly the first second derivative and inflation as well to hear Matt was that he's saying 3% inflation is unacceptable is by the book by the UCLA book and his regard and other people saying they have no chance of getting their near term John where have we come from 30 year yield You know we don't look at it like we used to John years ago That was a benchmark in America I don't know if it was in England but the answer is coming off of the last fed meeting We've seen a ginormous move in the 30 year bond And if you extrapolate that same move to the next fed meeting John you come up with a 3.59% statistic Those are huge numbers How the long end behaves Lisa in the face of these rate hikes gets interesting I thought maybe the flattener was in Vogue going into April then that broke down And that yield on the ten year the 30 year broke out And a lot of that does have to do with the question that Matt Lizzie was trying to answer which is this idea of what is the inflation rate the fed will tolerate over a longer period of time and you have a growing number of academics and just an economist broadly saying maybe they should target a little bit higher and mount said he's saying they can't do that They will lose credibility It will become unhinged and you are seeing that uncertainty getting reflected in longer term bond yields Some fantastic guests coming up on this program including the former vice chairman Alan blinder will join him just next on this program and later we're speaking with JPMorgan's Michael Faroe and Priya misra of TD securities from New York City this is Bloomberg.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"alan blinder" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Country I'm Michael kassner Market analysis that goes beyond the ordinary Again I learned another function from Matt Miller today Bloomberg markets with polls weenie and Matt Miller Why is this stock so unloved Weekdays at 10 a.m. eastern on Bloomberg radio The fed is going to have to raise rates and reverse Q 8 And if they can they're going to try to slow down the economy enough so that 8% starts to come down over time I think people should take a deep breath give them a chance and I think they got to move I think the sooner they move the better deep breath and give them a chance The words of Jamie dime at the chairman of CEO of JPMorgan from New York City this morning good morning with Tom Keene At least Abraham and Jonathan farrow here's the price action in the equity market at four tenths on a S&P on the NASDAQ at four tenths of 1% also going into this fed decision a little bit later Yields come in a couple of basis points two 95 19 Do you think that's what chairman Powell's going to say to Mike mckie later Tom Deep breath Give us a chance Yeah well I think it's going to be there but I think what's interesting is sort of out of the zeitgeist just to see where the descent is today as well And I guess to what we just heard from Greg Staples is to the hawkish twist Of 75 basis points you really think John we're going to see outright dissent where people almost Bank of England I would say it's more likely down the road than today you never know I think there is agreement on moving 50 today going through all the fed speak that seems to be a pretty decent consensus on making that move Then things get more interesting We know where the consensus is We also know where the division is The division is about how far you go once you get to say 2% You know where Jim bullard would want that right Tom He wants a closer to three and he wants it pretty quickly Yeah it's going to be interesting to see and again our coverage at 1 p.m. folks we begin with Matthew lazeti of Deutsche Bank with a recession called the vice chairman Alan blinder will join us in Princeton John we have David blanch flower Dartmouth as well don't we Do we I believe so yes Very cool Looking forward to that It's going to be a terrific set He's going to say but I'm looking forward to that Yeah well we're going to say right now we're going to digress to the issue of the moment which is riveted America And what we do at surveillance as we've done with Ukraine as we've done with COVID is literally fine legit experts That would be a laying Mark Senior fellow at the brookings institute yes professor at Harvard but far more she is a student of presidential success and failure and a book of a number of years ago the end of government as we know it making public policy work allowing you wrote a definitive essay I thought very balanced for brookings yesterday on this raging debate of abortion And at the end of it you predict off of the mask experience of COVID a tsunami of fury When does the tsunami hit hello and thank you for having me The tsunami is hit yesterday It hit last night with the demonstrations outside the Supreme Court I think these will continue And I think what it's going to do is going to increase turnout for the midterm elections So a sleepy and kind of indifferent democratic electorate I think is gotten a big wake-up call And I think people are going to come out to vote in November Perhaps even upending some of those elections which we were assuming was going to go to the Republicans And Linda greenhouse among others have walked through the Mississippi circuit approach and what the Supreme Court traditionally has done is any of that nuance going to matter in this debate or is it so polarized and each and every American so decisive of their choice on the choice of abortion that all the niceties really don't matter It's an interesting question because part of what we're going to wait and see is how this in fact plays out There will be states that will still offer abortion but at 6 weeks or at 15 weeks okay So you know this doesn't mean automatically abortion disappears everywhere And the more interesting thing that's been happening is while attention has been focused on the states getting rid of abortion there are other states like Maryland Connecticut Oregon who are increasing their abortion workforce They are allowing non doctors other health professionals like nurse practitioners to perform abortions They are getting ready for the abortion influx So people are going to be traveling to get abortions Abortions will not be programmed but if people will be traveling as your map shows some will have to travel very far And this is going to like all things It will have a small effect on the well educated and people with money And it's going to have a big effect on poor women who can't afford to travel or who can't even get the information about traveling So it's going to have a very disparate effect but we will have abortion providing states and abortion banned states Here's a question about how this transforms the election heading into the midterms A lot of people saying that this was leaked in part in order to galvanize voters There's a lot of speculation all sides putting all that aside Do you think that this fundamentally reshapes the Democrats chance of actually being a little bit more successful in the midterms I think it does I think it's a fundamental reshaping Particularly in the Senate okay I think that the Senate races because their statewide races as opposed to districts drawn from one party or the other I think this fundamentally increases the Democrats chances of holding the Senate I think there's going to be real outrage at just the interference here in people's lives And the irony is that many of the same people advocating this rather draconian choice about what women should do with their bodies We're also the same people who are arguing for medical choice and medical freedom when it came to whether or not they got a COVID test or a COVID shot So this is going to really get people riled up It has already I think it will continue to rile people up all the way through November Elaine wonderful to hear from you this morning Thank you Ellen came up there of the brookings institution Something perhaps we haven't spent a lot of time thinking about at least through much of this year because through much of this year it was just seen as inevitable that we'd get this big swing in the midterms later this year And a lot of people basically counted out certain fiscal response to what we're seeing with supply chains et cetera because it was just not going to get passed given a divided house that I do wonder whether the shifts this at all given the fact that there does seem to be more voter turnout and it might favor the Democrats more than it would have perhaps in the past First and foremost sensitive to the nature of the discussion but coming back to what we do here looking at the market too early to think about market implications of a shift in the midterms at this point It's never too early to think about market implications It's a forward looking exercise I do think however what that response will be in terms of what will get passed given the fact that the uncertainty right now the band of uncertainty around inflation and basic economic growth is so wide it seems to be a little bit difficult for me to get my head around A very little uncertainty it seems somewhat you can expect from the Federal Reserve a little bit later at 2 p.m..
Bloomberg Radio New York
"alan blinder" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"And adjusted earnings of 32 cents a share Tom busby Bloomberg daybreak All right Tom thank you I'll oversee this morning shares of Credit Suisse or down more than 3% The Swiss bank posted its biggest quarterly loss in about four years in CEO Thomas gaunt Stein is warning that higher costs for pay and its restructuring will weigh on results all year We also included a new form of compensation in terms of our STP strategic delivery plan And this was very well received by our employees And Credit Suisse is very committed to play mark to pay market rates in terms of compensation Credit three CEO Thomas Scott Stein says the company is focused on implementing a new strategy after scandals involving artichoke capital management and green silk capital Shares of Unilever are also in focus this morning Karen they're down more than 3% in London The company warns that inflation will dent profitability for two years Unilever says commodity costs are rising by more than 20% across the consumer goods industry Well speaking of prices Nathan we're set for the next reading on inflation here in the U.S. the government relations that consumer price index for January at 8 30 a.m. Wall Street time Economists forecast a reading of 7.2% year over year we get more from Bloomberg economic correspondent Michael McKee January's consumer price index won't lead the fed to any kind of decision but it will offer guidance about what they'll need to do down the road Much of the jump in inflation has come from goods rather than services as Americans flush with stimulus cash stayed home and bought things instead of experiences The omicron outbreak last month probably kept that trend in place But we did see inventories rising at the end of last year which could mean some easing in transportation and bottleneck costs Economists will also check the reopening trade cars insurance lodging airfares and food to see if prices are still rising And finally housing home prices up 17 and a half percent through November 2021 will be feeding into the CPI for some time even if higher interest rates start to slow home sales Michael McKee Bloomberg daybreak Okay Mike thanks We're also watching the fed for another reason this morning history is being made at the Federal Reserve bank of Boston More on that live from Bloomberg's journey to young Good morning granita Good morning Nathan the Boston fed has named University of Michigan economist Susan Collins as its next president She becomes the first black woman to lead one of the Central Bank's 12 districts and will replace Eric Rosen who stepped down last year A Collins who earned a doctorate in economics at MIT drew support for many including former vice chair Alan blinder I certainly think she's in the mainstream among economists among liberal left of center economists but certainly not far left She's really in the mainstream And I think that's basically where the Federal Reserve is these days Former fed vice chair and current Princeton University professor Alan blinder says Collins has every asset for the job and no liabilities live in New York I'm ranita young Bloomberg daybreak Okay we're going to thank you S&P.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"alan blinder" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Good morning I'm Nathan And I'm Karen Moscow U.S. future is looking at stage a comeback They're rebounding off the worst levels this morning and moving higher We're coming up to 5 O one on Wall Street and we check the markets every 15 minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg S&P futures have 5 points down futures up 6 NASDAQ futures up 54 The Dax in Germany is down four tenths of a percent and your treasury up 6 30 seconds yield 1.84% Nathan Karen stocks did sell off overnight after yesterday's hawkish tilt from the fed but U.S. futures are bouncing back from session lows J Powell signaled a march interest rate hike but also stoked speculation about more aggressive policy in the months ahead I think there's quite a bit of room to raise interest rates without threatening the labor market By so many measures historically tight labor market With a yield curve flattened on the heels of those comments from Jay Powell this morning two year yields are rising while tenants and 30s fall former fed vice chair Alan blinder expects a rate hike at every meeting this year Think about where we are now We're almost at a zero rate of four rate hike puts you just above 1% That's hardly a Central Bank that's trying to clamp down on its economy Former vice chair Alan blinder says the fed will continue to be data dependent on this morning money markets are now pricing 5 rate hikes from the fed this year Nathan U.S. stocks sank after the fed decision and that trend continued overnight with heavy selling in Asia We get the recap from Bloomberg's Juliet Sally in Singapore Good morning Julia Good morning Karen the MSCI Asia Pacific index posted its biggest drop since February to hold at 14 month lows as a number of indexes in the region teetered on or entered bear market and correction territory China's CSI 300 filled 20% from its February peak to enter a bear market South Korea's Cosby also entering a bear market Australia's ASX 200 was down 10% from its August peak to enter correction In Singapore Juliet sali Bloomberg daybreak All right Julian thank you So how much further is the Federal Reserve willing to let stocks slide We have a prediction from the world's biggest hedge fund Bloomberg's who need a young joins us live with the details Good morning Good morning Nathan It's the burning question of the moment for market watchers and Bridgewater associates co chief investment officer Greg Jensen says the fed could let stocks drop as much as 20% more That would put the S&P 500 below 3500 near its pre-pandemic level Justin says so far the decline over the past few weeks has been mostly healthy because it's deflated some of the bubbles like cryptocurrencies live in New York I'm ready to young Bloomberg daybreak Renee thank you Stocks are also under pressure this morning from earnings including disappointing results from Intel that ship makers out with a weak profit forecast for the current quarter and we get the story from.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"alan blinder" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"This is Bloomberg best on Bloomberg radio This is Bloomberg best I'm Ed Baxter And I'm Denise Pellegrini Do you some people think the fed needs to get more hawkish And one of them is former fed bank of New York president Bill Dudley for sure And here's how he puts it with Bloomberg's Tom Keane Lisa brambles and Jonathan farrow I'm sure it doesn't make people there happy but the reality is I gotta call it like I see it And what I see right now is a Federal Reserve that has a very benign forecast relative to what's actually happening on inflation If you look at their forecast that they published at the December sea meeting they have inflation melting away to 2.1% in 2024 even though they don't take monetary policy to a tight setting The end of 2024 the federal fund rates 2.1% below what they think is neutral So how does the inflation magically disappear if the federals are not all too tight That's the question I want to raise in this piece Bill Dudley Alan Greenspan in 1998 at least talking about the measurement and measured in the idea of a graduation a step by step approach Alan blinder in an essay in 2005 said the Greenspan standard is suspect Are we going back to Arthur berms burns in the pipe smoke where we're going to lose quarter point measured and start to see some real jumps I think they're going to go fairly slow at first but because they think that the inflation pressures that we're seeing right now are going to subside as we go through the first half of the year But the real new information is the tightness of the labor market and the fact that that tightness of the labor market is resulting in higher wages wages above what's consistent with 2% inflation So I think even if the initial impulse of inflation turns out to be transitory it now have a problem because the labor market is sufficiently tight that wages are going to continue to accelerate Bill you reiterate your call for three to 4% as the potential and a rate for the fed funds I'm struck by the fact that you include the idea of an end rate for inflation at two and a half to 3% which is actually a commonplace suggestion What happens to risk markets if the fed funds rate gets to three or 4% Do you think that this economy can sustain that Well I think that's the fundamental question In 2004 2006 the economy sustained the fed taking the federal funds rate from 1% to 5 and a quarter in 2016 to 19 the college didn't do so well with the fed taking the federal fund rate to up a little bit over 2% So I think that's the fundamental question How does a market reactive heighten I think that right now this idea though that the fed is a small amount of tightening is going to cause markets to go down precipitously and that's going to cause the fed to stop I don't think that's the most likely outcome If you think the inflation subsiding at two and a half to 3% would result in what could be a crippling fed funds rate that are you saying that we need an inflation rate below two and a half percent to have an economy that is sustainable over the next decade I don't think a three to 4% federal fundraiser is crippling it in any way It's only an unusually high relative to the last ten years It's actually a pretty low relative to the last 30 or 40 years So I think the economy can do just fine with a federal fundraising that range I think what markets are really pricing is the fact that the fed is actually going to have to move to monetary policy setting at some point The fed has turned more hawkish in the very near term So a lot more heights are being priced in in 2022 But the terminal fid fund rate the market's expecting is still very low only around 2% or so Bill what's important here and I think to summarize the message you think for inflation to come lower the fed needs to engineer kind of financial conditions Bill I'm trying to understand from your standpoint when you think that tightness begins Where do you think it is One and a half 2% two and a half When does it start to become restrictive and where we can sit here and say the fed is now tightening I think it's when the market starts to price in more tightening than what they've priced in at this point in time I mean if the fed just delivers what's priced in today I don't think markets react very much because it's already priced in So the Federal Reserve essentially has to go farther than what the market anticipates for the markets to react I think what will happen is the first finals will go out further privacy biennials in the two and a half 3% range And as once we have higher ten year treasury note yields that will start to weigh on the stock market a little bit more and other risk assets like say cryptocurrencies for example But what you just said though the original piece of this is that you think when that happens the fed doesn't back off It's not the old playbook Well the fed has to do its job at the end of the day I mean if you try to defer the fight against inflation all you do is get more inflation So it's not like trying to be a nice guy get through it for a better place We sort of saw that mistake in the early 1970s So I think the Federal Reserve at the end of the day will do its job I think it's a slow I think to realize right now the consequences of the tight labor market which save engineered at this point Which moves quicker the Taylor rule coming down with all its moving parts or does the fed move up at a greater speed Well I don't think the Taylor role is really that relevant to what the fed is doing right now I mean listen to cheer Paul He talks about the importance of financial conditions And I think the key issue the financial conditions today are extremely accommodative The slow the economy down the fed needs to make financial conditions less accommodative How do they do that They raised short term rates they raise short term rates more and faster than what markets expect Though how does balance sheet reduction play into this as well From your standpoint Well it's interesting that there seems to be a growing sentiment that the balance sheet reduction is going to happen sooner than last time Not just in time but also in terms of the level of interest rates where the fed is going to start the balance sheet finalization process Mary Daley last week talked about getting going after a couple rate hikes I find that a little bit surprising given that the fed officials have also said that they want the federal fund rate to be the primary tool of monetary policy Well if you want the federal fund rate to be the primary tool of monetary policy you need to get the federal fund rate up So it can actually react to adverse shocks in the economy so you can push it back down I think the case for being a little bit more patient with the balance sheet is still pretty strong What's your sense of how much they should raise rates this year I think they should go faster than what's priced into the market I mean obviously it's going to depend a bit on how the economy revolves They need to do at least four or 5 rate heights this year And when strike me at all if we get into an every meeting kind of cycle at some point But what went wrong for this Federal Reserve Let's finish there Well I think there are essentially four mistakes that were made Number one the way the.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"alan blinder" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"This is Bloomberg best on Bloomberg radio This is Bloomberg best I'm at Baxter and I'm Denise Pellegrini Do you some people think the fed needs to get more hawkish And one of them is former fed bank of New York president Bill Dudley for sure And here's how he puts it with Bloomberg's Tom Keane Lisa bramlett and Jonathan farrow I'm sure it doesn't make people there happy but the reality is I gotta call it like I see it and what I see right now is a Federal Reserve that has a very benign forecast relative to what's actually happening on inflation If you look at their forecasts that they published at the December sea meeting they have inflation melting away to 2.1% in 2024 even though they don't take monetary policy to a tight setting The end of 2024 the federal fund rates 2.1% below what they think is neutral So how does the inflation magically disappear if the Federal Reserve is that not all too tight That's the question I want to raise in this piece Bill Dudley Alan Greenspan in 1998 at least talking about the measurement and measured in the idea of a graduation of step by step approach Alan blinder in an essay in 2005 said the Greenspan standard is suspect Are we going back to Arthur berms burns in the pipe smoke where we're going to lose quarter point measured and start to see some real jumps I think they're going to go fairly slow at first but because they think that the inflation pressures that we're seeing right now are going to subside as we go through the first half of the year But the real new information is the tightness of the labor market and the fact that that tightness of the labor market is resulting in higher wages wages above what's consistent with 2% inflation So I think even if the initial impulse of inflation turns out to be transitory it now have a problem because the labor market is sufficiently tight that wages are going to continue to accelerate Bill you reiterate your call for three to 4% as the potential and a rate for the fed funds I'm struck by the fact that you include the idea of an end rate for inflation at two and a half to 3% which is actually a commonplace suggestion What happens to risk markets if the fed funds rate gets to three or 4% Do you think that this economy can sustain that Well I think that's the fundamental question In 2004 2006 the economy sustained the fed taking the federal fund rate from 1% to 5 and a quarter in 2016 to 19 the college didn't do so well with the fed taking the federal funds rate to up a little bit over 2% So I think that's the fundamental question How does auto markets react if that tightening I think that right now this idea though that the fed is a small amount of titanium is going to cause markets to go down precipitously and that's going to cause the fed to stop I don't think that's the most likely outcome If you think the inflation subsiding at two and a half to 3% would result in what could be a crippling fed funds rate that are you saying that we need an inflation rate below two and a half percent to have an economy that is sustainable over the next decade I don't think a three to 4% federal fundraiser is crippling it in any way It's only an unusually high relative to the left ten years It's actually a pretty low relative to the last 30 or 40 years So I think the economy can do just fine with the federal funds rate in that range I think what markets are really pricing is the fact that the fed is actually going to have to move to a policy study at some point The fed has turned more hawkish in the very near term So a lot more heights are being priced in in 2022 But the terminal fiddle fund rate that the market is expecting is still very low only around 2% or so But what's important here and I think to summarize the message you think for inflation to come lower the fed needs to engineer kind of financial conditions Bill I'm trying to understand from your standpoint when you think that tightness begins Where do you think it is One and a half 2% two and a half When does it start to become restrictive and where we can sit here and say the fed is now Titanic I think it's when the markets start to price in more tightening than what they've created at this point in time I mean it's the fed just delivers what's priced in today I don't think markets react very much because it's already priced in So the Federal Reserve essentially has to go farther than what the market anticipates from the markets to react I think what will happen is the first finals will go out further privacy biennials in the two and a half 3% range And as once we have higher tenure treasury note yields that will start to weigh in the stock market a little bit more and other risk assets like say cryptocurrencies for example But what you just said dog with the original piece of this is that you think when that happens the fed doesn't back up It's not the old playbook Well the fed has to do its job at the end of the day I mean if you try to defer the fight against inflation all you do is get more inflation So it's not like trying to be a nice guy gets you to a better place We sort of saw that mistake in the early 1970s So I think the Federal Reserve at the end of the day.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"alan blinder" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"I'm Ed Baxter And I'm Denise Pellegrini Do you some people think the fed needs to get more hawkish And one of them is former fed bank of New York president Bill Dudley for sure And here's how he puts it with Bloomberg's Tom Keane Lisa Abramovich and Jonathan farrow I'm sure it doesn't make people there happy but the reality is I got to call it like I see it And what I see right now is the Federal Reserve that has a very benign forecast relative to what's actually happening on inflation If you look at their forecasts that they published at the December sea meeting they have inflation melting away to 2.1% in 2024 even though they don't take monetary policy to a tight setting The end of 2024 the federal fund rates 2.1% below what they think is neutral So how does the inflation magically disappear if the Federal Reserve is acting in policy type That's the question I want to raise in this piece Bill Dudley Alan Greenspan in 1998 at least talking about the measurement and measured in the idea of a graduation of step by step approach Alan blinder in an essay in 2005 said the Greenspan standard is suspect Are we going back to Arthur berms burns in the pipe smoke where we're going to lose quarter point measured and start to see some real jumps I think they're going to go fairly slow at first but because they think that the inflation pressures that we're seeing right now are going to subside as we go through the first half of the year But the real new information is the tightness of the labor market and the fact that that tightness of the labor market is resulting in higher wages wages above what's consistent with 2% inflation So I think even if the initial impulse of inflation turns out to be transitory it now have a problem because the labor market is sufficiently tight that wages are going to continue to accelerate Bill you reiterate your call for three to 4% as the potential and rate for the fed funds I'm struck by the fact that you include the idea of an end rate for inflation at two and a half to 3% which is actually a commonplace suggestion What happens to risk markets if the fed funds rate gets to three or 4% Do you think that this economy can sustain that Well I think that's the fundamental question In 2004 2006 the economy sustained the fed taking the federal fund rate from 1% to 5 and a quarter In 2016 to 19 the colleague did do so well with the fed taking the federal funds rate to up a little bit over 2% So I think that's the fundamental question How does auto markets react if that lightning I think that right now this idea though that the fed is a small amount of titanium is going to cause markets to go down precipitously and that's going to cause the fed to stop I don't think that's the most likely outcome If you think the inflation subsiding at two and a half to 3% would result in what could be a crippling fed funds rate that are you saying that we need an inflation rate below two and a half percent to have an economy that is sustainable over the next decade I don't think a three to 4% federal fundraiser is crippling it in any way It's only an unusually high relative to the last ten years It's actually a pretty low relative to the last 30 or 40 years So I think the economy can do just fine with the federal funds rate in that range I think what markets are really pricing is the fact that the fed is actually going to have to move to a policy study at some point The fed has turned more hawkish in the very near term So a lot more heights are being priced in in 2022 But the terminal fiddle fund rate that the market is expecting is still very low only around 2% or so But what's important here and I think to summarize the message you think for inflation to come lower the fed needs to engineer kind of financial conditions Bill I'm trying to understand from your standpoint when you think that tightness begins Where do you think it is One and a half 2% two and a half When does it start to become restrictive and where we can sit here and say the fed is now tightening I think it's when the markets start to price in more tightening than what they've breaks in at this point in time I mean it's the fed just delivers what's priced in today I don't think markets react very much because it's already priced in So the Federal Reserve essentially has to go further than what the market anticipates to the markets to react I think what will happen is the first bond yield will go out further Pricey biennials in the two and a half 3% range And as once we have higher tenure treasury note yields that will start to weigh in the stock market a little bit more And other risk assets like say cryptocurrencies for example But what you just said Doug the original piece of this is that you think when that happens the fed doesn't back off It's not the old playbook Well the fed has to do its job at the end of the day I mean if you try to defer the fight against inflation all you do is get more inflation So it's not like trying to be a nice guy get through to a better place We sort of saw that mistake in the early 1970s So I think the Federal Reserve at the end of the day will do its job I think it's a slow I think to realize right now the consequences of the tight labor market which save engineered at this point Which moves quicker the Taylor rule coming down with all its moving parts Ernest the fed move up at a greater speed Well I don't think the Taylor rule is really that relevant to what the fed is doing right now I mean listen to cheer Paul and he talks about the importance of financial conditions And I think that that's the key issue The financial conditions today are extremely accommodative The slow the economy down the fit needs to make financial conditions less accommodative How do they do that They raised short term rates they raise short term rates more and faster than what markets expect Though how does balance sheet reduction play into this as well From your standpoint Well it's interesting that there seems to be a growing sentiment that the balance sheet reduction is going to happen sooner than last time Not just in time but also in terms of the level of interest rates where the fed is going to start the balance sheet finalization.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"alan blinder" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Audience worldwide on TV and radio the president of the United States nominating chairman power to a second term as the fed chair Nominated governor Brian at fed vice chair This all the colleagues of White House in the last couple of moments let's get some market reaction for you from Kathy Jones of Schwab She joins us Kathy great to catch up with you Your first reaction please I think this is a don't rock the boat move It's consistent with the long history of the fed usually fed chairs are renominated And it looks like probably there was a thought at The White House that this fighting a battle perhaps over brainard was not worth not where the fight worth having at this stage of the game You can't see let's talk about the move in this bond market ten year yields up four basis points pushing one 60 again The more interesting move for me is pushing 60 basis points to the front end on twos up by 5 basis points to 56 Early days knee jerk reaction may be but Kathy what's your initial response to sing that kind of move off the back of this decision Yeah clearly the market is looking at the likelihood that the fed will increase the rate of tapering and move up the timing of the first rate hike Now that Powell has been renominated and you've kind of cleared the decks in terms of policy decision making going forward And I think that that's a reasonable expectation given some of the comments that we've heard from various officials and the fact that inflation has been higher and more persistent than expected The fab really shouldn't have any reason to be buying bonds at this stage of the game It's not really contributing much and it could be doing some harm So the faster they taper the better news it is in terms of getting the inflation picture under control Kathy Jones with us here right now in Alan blinder scheduled to be with us here in moments Kathy look at the bond market I look at all the uncertainties forward and what we see without question is a wall of savings of liquidity a buoyant holiday season for the consumer is well What is the Schwab call on the American consumer next year the chairman Powell and vice chairman brainer will confront Now we're pretty optimistic about the consumer You know there's high levels of savings the job market is very strong wages are rising particularly for lower income workers All those are really positive for the consumer Obviously it's going to be something of a constraint of energy prices stay high because that's a particular pain point for consumers But by and large consumers are in good shape So we're looking for that to continue to drive the economy going forward Kathy stay close for the market action your two year yield this morning up by 5 basis points One head down to D.C. and catch up with Bloomberg's Anne Marie Houghton our Washington correspondent this is also about confirm ability Can these decisions actually be realized Take a listen to that famous quote from senator Warren in the last couple of months on what she thinks of this chairman.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"alan blinder" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Gold 1754 the ounce crude surged one and a half percent $80 52 cents a barrel I'm Charlie pallet That is a Bloomberg business flash This is Bloomberg sound on with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg radio I want to dig a little deeper into this question of getting rid of the debt ceiling Imagine a world in which we were not having this conversation right now Or next week or next month Replacing it may be a better word than eliminating the debt ceiling as we consider the Democrats strategy this time around in the reluctance by this White House at least at the moment to talk about alternatives to raising or suspending the debt ceiling the treasury secretary Janet Yellen was to ask about this because she has indicated support for getting rid of it who could blame her Asked about if I George Stephanopoulos here on ABC this week Listen We've had deficits for most of the post war period And that means raising the debt ceiling It's a housekeeping true There's really we should be debating the government's fiscal policy when we decide on those expenditures and taxes Not when the credit card Bill from comes do It's coming due on the 3rd of December Bloomberg politics contributors Jeannie chanson and Rick Davis are with us for the hour As we assemble the panel thanks for being with us on this holiday both of you I know you work every day but thank you anyway Jeannie We've talked about this before but to actually hear the treasury secretary articulate that Why not make that the long-term strategy You get legislation put it in reconciliation lift the debt ceiling and then announce to the world That we have saved you forever from the debt ceiling Wouldn't that be a great world and happy Boston Marathon day Joe Oh and you And you know I think the get part rule that Ed talked about is one that many people have suggested of late we should be revisited It was 1995 when it was repealed but it was in place from 79 to 95 but you know there is a flip side to that that other people have talked about And that is the fact that that would make a lot of sense if Congress was very strict in terms of what in fact the cost estimates were so they were binding in other words that treasury couldn't borrow more than Congress said So there's other aspects of this But indeed it seems you know to people you know who run their households It seems crazy that we do this in this weird two step process of spending and then allocating spending and then two years later another Congress has to come in and authorize the raising of the debt ceiling I mean it's ripe for what we're sitting through now Rick Davis it was only two months ago Alan blinder former vice chair of the fed of course wrote an opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal a simple rule could end debt ceiling shenanigans it was the very one that you're talking about So why not Yeah why not I mean you go through all this effort to pass a budget The budget by its nature as approved by the House and Senate carries with it spending that by definition unless it's someday a budget that is actually less than current spending which it never seems to be Then it's going to require debt ceiling increase So why don't make it automatic That's part of what the get part rule wanted to do in the house But that's just a house It still takes 60 votes in the Senate and that's where we got bully stuff last week So I think you're right I mean I have a surprise to learn and I thought I'd been around to track a few times to know better that we're only one of two countries in the world that continue to require a vote by their legislature to increase the federal spending over a certain debt amount I think we ought to just get with it swallow the poison pill of debt It's all political And the only reason they haven't done it already and I think maybe now is the time to take a step back and say you know what let's shove all this into that reconciliation And be done with the politics of debt limit increases Isn't there an opportunity here though Rick for Democrats to do something as the majority party now and take credit for it You could run this in ads forever Well you know maybe I mean like I'm not sure the American voter wants to see an unlimited credit card given to their federal government And look at the conduct that majority leader Schumer did when 11 Republicans change size and voted for the consideration of the debt limit increase He viscerally attacked them So I would say if there was an effort to try and solve this problem in a bipartisan way it had a huge setback last week And so you know maybe the Democrats have got to figure out another way to do it Reconciliation seems to be the only alternative and maybe they ought to swallow the pill and fix this for good I wonder if you see that's the kind of inevitable ending here Genie and how you feel after a weekend of political commentary just about the politics We went from feeling good about something happening I felt like the end of last week to really come and back into work with a hangover this morning and boy we're gonna do this all over again here can infrastructure and reconciliation be handled at the same time as this conversation we're having No it's Groundhog Day You know we're in 5 or 6 weeks out of doing this all over again and you know I think they could There are so much that is up for grabs here You know you just talk about you know reconciliation in this build back better You know you hear Bernie Sanders and Joe Manchin sniping at each other You know Sanders saying one or two people are stopping Democrats from moving forward Manchin saying this isn't in entitlement society How do they bridge that gap that you add to that You've got to now lift the debt ceiling You know there's just so much on their plate And as we've always said the longer this goes the more chaotic it is And I would just point to the latest quinnipiac poll This has got to be a real concern for The White House and for Democrats as we march into the midterm election and of course the Virginia governor's race is coming up in just a few weeks We're going to get sort of the preview of what this is likely to look like The chaos that the Republicans wanted is actually in Washington right now Glad you said that Jeannie.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"alan blinder" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"And yes, there was a value story that was floated quite a while ago and every now and then you might see those come in and talk about why stocks to be worth. Way more than it truly is, But no. Usually it seems like it's more fun and games and almost joking around and I don't want to throw out the word manipulation. It's not necessarily proof of manipulation, but it's the idea that they understand that if they get together as a force They can move markets. So okay, So that's the reddit side of the markets here. How about just the market overall? Just get the equity markets here off. 1% is just a Natural pull back after the trying to consolidate maybe some of the gains we've had, or is there something else driving this market? Right? So it's very much likely. I will say, though, if you look at volume in the market right now, volume for the S and P 500 currently 77% higher than what the average has been over the past 100 days. The past 100 days have not been a quiet 100 days. We've already seen elevated volume so volume is even more active than that. Now there is some conjecture that we might be seeing var drawdowns right now so value at risk and that there might be some institutional players. Who are having to sell to make sure that they have enough cash on hand to meet demands. So we don't have proof of that quite yet, But I've seen a couple traders and investors float that that might be a part of what we're seeing right now. Surely though I mean we have the S and P down down more than 1%. We have the NASDAQ down eight cents of a percent of the time the NASDAQ was down about 2% or so so. We're well off our lows of the day. But at the same time, it's true. You look at where benchmarks are standing still training your record highs. It's not unusual or unhealthy to get a correction of this sort. Still, though, it's hard to reconcile when you see the S and P 500 down 1%, and then there's a Goldman Sachs basket of the most shorted stocks. In the Russell 3000 You look at that, and that's up close to 10%. So you see this massive massive divergence where these small are not even small anymore. But highly highly shorted. Companies are just surging. And then yet the broader market is coming under pressure. Yeah, It's really phenomenal. It's such an interesting market right now. You know how many indicators of frosts are there out there At this point, Sarah, I don't know. We can count the froth markers that have been sighted one. We have the emergence of the retail trader, but that has completely taken a mind of its own. It's a new entity and a new venture. What we've seen in the past week or so. On top of that you have specs you have I oppose doing phenomenally well and popping on their first days. You see different measures of sentiment. For example, City panic euphoria is often cited pretty much going off the charts at record highs. So there's surely plenty of froth markers that professional investors are citing this point in time. But as we all know the party Congar Oh, on much longer. Then you might expect it to All right. Well, we shall see. Certainly not much of a party out there today with indices down, Wanted to have percent of peace, Sarah poems like cross us that reporter for us at Bloomberg News. Thank you. Another treat for us. Now we get to talk, fed with Alan Blinder of Princeton University professor and, of course, former Federal Reserve vice chair. He served with Janet Yellen of the Fed's board in You know, recent decades and Is also a co author of a book with Janet Yellen. Cold, Fabulous Decade Macroeconomic Lessons from the 19 nineties that was published in 2001, Alan. Thank you so much for joining first your reaction to Janet Yellen as now Treasury secretary, the first woman Treasury secretary of the United States of America. Well, I'm pleased this punches you can well regarded well understand. It is a landmark to have the first woman sitting in the secretary of the Treasury's Office. She comes very well prepared. Not all secretaries of the Treasury do you may recall without naming names. Some do some Don't She comes very well prepared both understanding markets and understanding. Washington and understanding the Treasury's business and especially obviously understanding the Federal Reserve. When you're in a crisis situation such as we've been in for a while. The Treasury and the Fed, regardless of who's sitting in those two chairs have got to be in close collaboration early and often, and this is just gonna be so easy. With Janet Yellen and Jay Powell. So, Professor. How do you expect or what would you like to see in terms of fiscal policy? Monetary policy here just where we are right now. It seems like we're in a way we can look to the other side of this pandemic. But there's still a long road ahead. What would you like to see? Yeah, I think monetary policy should be sitting Right where it is, And that's of course, what the Federal Reserve thinks this is no news and then but I just might say that's in a hyper expansionary stance. So it's not like this sitting in neutral or something like that. They got the interest rate to the floor. They're buying. Securities make, uh to increase the size of the balance sheet and so on. They should stay that way for a while. It's regretful, and I'm not sure the legal status of some of these That Secretary Mnuchin saw fit in this closing days to cut cut them out. The feds emergency Uh, lending facilities. I'd like to see Janet Yellen put them back to the extent that she can sum that may need congressional action, which is harder. Whatever can be done by Treasury action, I think Should be done Just because you want them. There is a backstop. The argument. Diminution made the world We're not using these Let's throw them away. Is exactly the same as saying I haven't made a claim of my fire insurance policy from my home, So let me just cancel it. Yeah, For sure..
Bloomberg Radio New York
"alan blinder" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"You're listening to Bloomberg, Best on Bloomberg Radio. I'm Ed Baxter. And I'm Didi's Pellegrini Ed. One of the things investors are watching very closely here as we move through the first week of the Biden administration is the relationship between the Fed and the Treasury Department. Yes, correct. And some say it might be smooth sailing Denise on that front this time around. Partly because of President Biden's pick for Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has been a Fed chair right, so she has strong relationships with some people there and some who will be there as well. Now we had a chance to hear from Alan Blinder all about it. He's professor of economics and public affairs at Princeton and Bloomberg's Amanda Lang and funny Quinn Ass splendor about Yellen's transition to Treasury. Let's listen in scenario Secretary Treasury understands Very well on understands Marcus Well, but it sat there sat there in the seat that Jay Powell now coupons and so you're just gonna have completely smooth. I think it's something very weird happens completely smooth relationship in the Treasury. And a head, which, by the way, we're in a crisis we really need, But that's her. How much resistance will she meet from Republicans and from say, you know, Mitch McConnell on drying Tiuna, an act some of the policies that she's clearly an agreement with President elect Joe Biden about Will that be a problem? I think it's likely will be a problem. And you will see. Maybe the Republican Party has had an epiphany of decided to be cooperative and actually help the country. Get out of this next. Then we're in. I haven't been very cooperative in the past something that I wanted, you know, He's not a highly political yes, political views, which is about 100 political version, So you know we shape for the whole game personal, but we have to see Whether the Republicans are going off with absolute collaboration to the binding ministrations of the way I never get to the Obama administration. She mentioned that the case shaped recovery that some economists talk about now was already a K shaped economy before the pandemic. It just wasn't talked about enough. If the 1.9 trillion doesn't materialize, what can she do with a lesser amount to target? Those? Minorities, Those women and those people that are on the bottom end of the K that she talked about in her testimony lesson that she needed a lesson about choices will happen. The bottom part of the cane is dead within the 1.9 trillion, for sure they'll be looking to give up very much of that. We'll see. A lot of that agendas maybe left for whatever the fight administrating like it's staged to build back better. We are starting to get more information on the top part of the K two. Alan. We certainly knew date in Canada show when I think the echoed in the U. S, which is We're not just seeing the bottom part suffered. The top part is disproportionately seeing job creation and income growth, meaning excess tax capacity awaits. Ah, wealth tax is obviously a potential agenda item. What's your understanding of what this Treasury secretary would do with that kind of an idea? Be surprised They haven't given an indication that they're going for a well, fax. It would be surprising every a lot of resistance to it. I don't think it's a terrible idea, frankly, but there'll be a tremendous amount. Resist Ruth there a lesson things you could do that may be easier to just the truck with taxation of capital gains of death. Wouldn't be a bit surprised that we were fighting in this nation later on, not not right away, but later on, they will break. It's one of many Ideas and, of course he wishes and will propose it to Don't do the trump passports. At the other end. He's been very careful that is the president elect will be very careful. Let's say people on the 400,000. An annual income, which is almost everybody actually look at the numbers will not have their own taxes rate. So Alan, you know she was very aggressive language on China. But we also know that just as an economist, she's a proponent of free trade. How do you imagine on to the next administration with Janet Yellen as Treasury secretary? China relationship gets managed. But he said all the continents eventually believers in trade. She's a believer in training. She also noted quite correctly that China doesn't really play by the rules. It's not only a trade issue, it's stealing intellectual property that the first lady Train, But there's really someone different. For example, it'll sound that I put it in town on Fun of something. So I think the one commonality between the Trump Administration on the Biden administration won't be made, but one commonality will be to work on China. Try to get her to behave. Uh better. Not. Incidentally, we let Trump let the menace chance of doing that Go by the first day of his presidency. We pulled this out of the TV thing. Was an agreement where China was out, and I was almost certainly gonna want a comedian it inning. You know, knocking on the door and we might have got some behavior changes for the better, but that's water under the bridge now and what? We can't go there. Playing 17. That was Alan Blinder, professor of economics and public affairs at Princeton and coming up even as we grieved, we grew. Yeah, the words of 22 year old poet Amanda Gorman, Plus what next for Former President Trump will be talking to some who correctly forecast the Capitol Hill riot year, listening to.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"alan blinder" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"You're listening to Bloomberg, Best on Bloomberg Radio. I'm Ed Baxter. And I'm Didi's Pellegrini Ed. One of the things investors are watching very closely here as we move through the first week of the Biden administration is the relationship between the Fed and the Treasury Department. Yes, correct. And some say it might be smooth sailing Denise on that front this time around. Partly because of President Biden's pick for Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has been a Fed chair right, so she has strong relationships with some people there and some who will be there as well. Now we had a chance to hear from Alan Blinder all about it. He's professor of economics and public affairs at Princeton and Bloomberg's Amanda Lang and funny Quinn Ass splendor about Yellen's transition to Treasury. Let's listen in Secretary Treasury understands. Okay. Well, um, understands markets well, but it's out there that sat there in the seat that Jay Powell now coupons and so you're just gonna have a completely smooth I think it's something very weird happens completely smooth relationship between the Treasury And a pair, which, by the way, we're in a crisis you really, But that's her. How much resistance will she meet from Republicans and from say, you know, Mitch McConnell on drying Tiuna, an act some of the policies that she's clearly an agreement with President elect Joe Biden about Will that be a problem? I think it's likely will be a problem. And you will see. Maybe the Republican Party has had an epiphany of decided to be cooperative and actually helped punching it out of this next, then we're in. I haven't been cooperating with the past. Certainly not appointed Janet. You know, he's not hardly political friendship, political views but about 100 political person. So you know, we shape for the whole community personal, but we have to see Whether the Republicans are going off in the saloon collaboration. Being binding Administration of the way I never get to the Obama administration. She mentioned that the case shaped recovery that some economists talk about now was already a K shaped economy before the pandemic. It just wasn't talked about enough. If the 1.9 trillion doesn't materialize, what can she do with a lesser amount to target? Those? Minorities, Those women and those people that are on the bottom end of the K that she talked about in her testimony. People listen to what she needed. A lesson about choices will have to rename the bottom part of the King is dead within the 1.9 trillion, for sure, nobody loves to give up very much of that. We'll see. A lot of that agenda is gonna be left for Whatever the binding ministries like it's staged in the mill back better. We are starting to get more information on the top part of the K two. Alan, We certainly knew dating Canada show what I think will be echoed in the U. S. Which is We're not just seeing the bottom part suffered. The top part is disproportionately seeing job creation and income growth, meaning excess tax capacity awaits. Ah, wealth tax is obviously a potential agenda item. What's your understanding of what this Treasury secretary would do with that kind of an idea? Be surprised they haven't given any indication that they're going for a wealth cracks. It would be surprising every a lot of resistance, but I don't think it is a terrible idea, frankly, but there'll be a tremendous amount of resistance. But their lesson things you couldn't do. That may be easier but just constructive taxation of capital gains that debt. Wouldn't be a bit surprised that we were fighting in this nation later on that not right away, but later on, you know, it's one of many Ideas and, of course he wishes and will proposes to Don't do the trump tax cuts. At the other end. He's been very careful that the president elect is very careful. Say people on the poorly the 1000. An annual income, which is almost everybody, you actually look at the numbers. I will not have a very important taxes. Right? So, Alan, you know she was very aggressive language on China. But we also know that just as an economist, she's a proponent of free trade. How do you imagine on to the next administration with Janet Yellen is Treasury secretary. China relationship gets managed When you say all the panels eventually believers in trade, she's a believer in training. She also knows quite correctly that China doesn't really play by the rules. It's not only a trade issue, it's stealing intellectual property related. Train, but it's really someone different. For example, you don't solve that's like putting a town on on something. So I think the one commonality Between the Trump administration on the Biden administration won't be made well. One commonality will be could work on China to try to get her to behave better. Not incidentally, We left for Trump let the medics chance of doing that combined the first day of his presidency. We pulled this out of the TV thing that was in agreement with China was out. It was almost certainly gonna want a comedian in any, you know, knocking on the door and we might have got some behavior changes for that. But that's what our end of the bridge now and what we can call that Playing 17. That was Alan Blinder, professor of economics and public affairs at Princeton and coming up even as we grieved, we grew. Yeah, the words of 22 year old poet Amanda Gorman. Plus, but next for Former President Trump will be talking to some who correctly forecast the Capitol Hill riot year listening to Bloomberg.
Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
US consumer spending sinks by record 13.6% in face of virus
"Aniela let me start with you and With the caveat that we're GONNA have Nancy Marshall Genzer here in a minute talking about personal income. I want to get your take as the trained economist in the room on the on the thirteen point something percent drop in consumer spending in the past month and I want you to frame it in terms of well. Consumers are basically this entire economy. Now what do we do right? The consumers are the engine of growth for the economy but the consumer has been staying at home. Many of us are under lockdown orders. That are just now starting to ease and so what we've seen. Is this phased in transition from a near lockdown of the national economy in April to a phase reopening That's happening in stages in so consumer spending is under the weight of that lockdown in terms of. Well there's nothing to spend our money on besides basic goods But also Some fear about re reengaging with the economy without social distancing protection and so the key to the recovery will be that consumers feel healthy both physically and financially to get back to spending at their normal levels. And we're GONNA talk about that a little bit with with Marshall Genzer Minute Gina As sort of along those same lines Fisher J. Paul did a thing today with Ellen blinder at Princeton Sort of a Q. And a. It was. It was a very nice little chat with those guys who've obviously known each other forever. But one of the things Alan blinder said. He's a professor of economics at Princeton. He said look. You guys are crossing some red lines in this crisis and Powell came back and said. Yeah you know what? I'm okay with that because this is different. I thought that was a remarkable thing for the guy running the American economy to say remarkable. You know basically said emergency unlike anything we've ever seen before if we didn't cross the red lines we'd have to explain ourselves to the American people and say why. Why didn't you do everything you possibly could do to save. The enemy was a remarkable statement. I think it's it's really interesting coming from pal too because he has historically been particularly concerned about crossing. Some of the red lines at the Fed has crossed one of them for example is fine municipal debt. You know. That's that's something Derek opt to start doing. It's something that he's been asked about four in asked he was always very quick to say. That's a lie. Don't Cross picking winners and losers This crisis Bonilla's so Senate Majority Leader Mitch. Mcconnell said today just sort of on those along those lines of this being you know an unprecedented crisis senator. Mcconnell said today you know the next relief bill whenever it comes Is probably going to be the last one you buy that now. Not at all because we're still in the early transition of the of the economy. The second quarter is supposed to bear the brunt of the economic toll of covid nineteen remember. We've already seen a five percent decline and US GDP just on basis of two weeks of a shutdown in late March. So imagine what the second quarter is going to look like and you know. Much of the stimulus has come at a time when people can't spend because they're at stale they're staying at home so I expect that there will be more stimulus. We may see some some green shoots of recovery in the second half and it's likely that we will but that's going to be in the midst of an uptick in bankruptcy says firms struggle to make this transition and some longer term effects in terms of the forty million people who are now seeking or have Unemployment benefit so. There's a long red to recovery and I don't think we get it. We get out of a relief effort from the from the government that quickly so junior. You did a piece of honestly and I apologize. I don't remember if it was today or yesterday about the shape of this recovery in the line stuck with me is v stands for very unlikely which I kinda love. Let's riff on that. Green shoots thing What do you see out there that gives you hope if anything right so I think if there's one hopeful take away from that road it's that we're not in for an out so it's very unlikely the growth just fell off a cliff and it's just gonNa stay low forever and that's it because what we're seeing is that activity is picking up in an starting at certain improve as we kind of get used to living in this world at a one thing that's important to note? Is that activities picking up in places that have reopened not really markedly different way than it is in places that have reopened more fully at While to sign of green shoots. I think it's also reason to be modest in our expectations. What's going to happen? As we reopen doesn't seem like he blurts pouring back into their lives with unbounded doozy Azam. Here nearly you by that. And what green shoot do you like it if any well I? I think it's the preconditions that we were. In prior to the pandemic. It's important to remember. This is a a biologically triggered downturn that the economy wasn't broken Going into the outbreak in the pandemic and so there are several things that were already in place like a healthy banking system that can support some pretty intense and aggressive fed action through the banking system. That wasn't the case in during the financial crisis the banks were the problem. We've also seen consumers have relatively healthier balance-sheets than they did during the financial crisis in terms of them out of debt relative to their income. So some of those conditions will help with the economic toll. But right it's going to be. I think a slower road than a V. shape And it's going to be based on biological and medical advancements not just reopening alone
Planet Money
Where Do We Get $2,000,000,000,000?
"Keep reading this number with an astonished voice but I feel like I have to do it every single time to it two trillion dollars just like it just stops me every single time. It is a lot of money. Obviously if it saves the economy from collapsing into another great depression it is worth every penny so the number one question. I think that a lot of people might ask when they hear two trillion dollars. They know that the federal government does not have two trillion dollars sitting around. The federal government is already in debt so way. Are they going to get the money in the next few weeks? So okay we can think of this in terms of two buckets very very big buckets. One bucket is money that basically already exists out there in the world. The other bucket is money that is going to be created out of thin air. The magic bucket. The magic bucket was afraid. You were going to say that. Let's start with the money that is already out there in the world basically the US government is going to borrow money by issuing treasury bonds. This is something that does all the time. If you have money in a retirement account you are probably lending money to the US government whether you know it or not investors all around the world are all the time lending tons of money to the US government but these are not normal times the US economy is functionally shutdown. I worry about the integrity of the US government. Why would investors around the world still give money in uncertain times to the US government? Why would they lend money when they could just sit on cash by golder? Yes so Robert. When we set out to work on this show I called up Alan blinder. He was the vice chair of the Fed back in the ninety S. He's a professor at Princeton. And he's he's one of the smartest people I know on this stuff and I asked him that question like why would people buy treasury bonds right now. There is a huge market for. Us Treasury debt for the simple reason that it's considered the safest asset money can buy and this is a time when the safest asset money can buy. Sounds really good. You Bet you know I understand this Jacob and we say this all the time the strength of the. Us Treasury bond is that it is the safest asset but in my heart. I do question whether there are two trillion dollars worth of takers out there. Ready to stand in line for this asset when we need it the most. How do we know it's still true? You know the answer say it you gotTa talk about interest rates. You Bet so right now today the. Us Government can borrow money for ten years at an interest rate of left than one percent a year right so this is trillions of dollars of smart investor money begging to lend money the government at a super super like historically low interest rate basically giving the government money for free because they trust the government so much because they are desperate to lend to the US government because if they were worried at this point like literally if they were worried today about the US government they would charge a much higher interest rate. And you only have to look back at the euro crisis in Greece When Greece needed money investors demanded a very high interest rate the same with Argentina any of these countries in trouble. If you're going to lend the money you're going to ask for ten fifteen twenty percent return if you're asking for less than one percent return you know you're gonNA get your money back. Yeah it is still one of the safest loans you can make on the planet even with all the debt people trust the US government with their money. And if I were to wake up one morning during this crisis and find that the. Us Treasury interest rate had skyrocketed. So that is probably not going to happen. And the reason it's probably not going to happen is actually like the next hole sort of chunk of the show their big thing. Oh it is the other bucket yes. It's the unfortunately named magic bucket right. That is the money created out of thin air bucket. So so now is the part where we talked about the Fed the Federal Reserve America's central that the Fed the Fed cavalry. So you and I did a show last week about the Fed rate so just to be clear the bill we're talking about today the two trillion dollars. That's Congress right. Congress is in the middle of passing that Bill. The president is almost certainly going to sign it. That's like one whole set of things k. The other big thing going on in the world the other big response to this crisis in America at least economically and financially has come from the Fed The feds doing a bunch of things. But what's important for? This show is the Fed is buying tons and tons of treasury bonds which is to say the Fed itself is lending hundreds of billions of dollars to the US government. And and you know one question. I had here for for blinders. Wait if everybody around. The world is so eager to lend the government. Why does the Fed need to be getting in on doing it to the Fed is GonNa do that? To the extent it is necessary to keep interest rates from going up so in other words if everyone in the world is clamoring to lend money to the US government interest rates. Stay low. That's great but if people get nervous about the United States then the Fed is there to keep buying to keep that rate. Low argued example if you went back to World War. Two which is the last time really. We had a mobilize the where we have to mobilize now. It does feel like right. I KEEP COMING BACK TO WORLD WAR. Two I you should so in World War Two. The Fed was very explicit that they were going to keep the interest rate on government bonds. Very very low for the duration of the war. And that's more or less what they're doing now. Is this time. It's the war against the virus. Yes hopefully well. It'll be a much shorter war but it's hope so yeah The Fed has said it's going to lend money to the government without limit. Bright more or less. Where does the Fed get the money? Oh that's the neat part about being a central bank. It doesn't have to get the money. It just creates the money something you and I wish we could do but only the central bank can do that so all of this money these hundreds of billions of dollars the Fed is going to essentially lend to the government by buying bonds. Is that like new money that the Fed is creating new money. That's why it's sometimes we still sometimes use the phrase printing money but this is electron. Ix handover dollar bills to exchange for pieces of paper. That money will be irrelevant to this whole thing. So to recap the two trillion dollar stimulus. Rescue package is being paid for by investors like you and me investors all over the world as well as the Fed making sure that everything runs smoothly and interest rates remain low. Yeah and and what that last part means is the Fed creating hundreds of billions of dollars out of thin air and using them to buy bonds. Now this is where I start to worry a little bit because I remember when I took high school economics. Which was my last sort of formal economics. Train Ish The one thing. They taught us the one thing they taught us was. If you print too much money as a government the thing that inevitably happens is your money which is flooding into the system becomes worth less and you start to see inflate hyper even this. Is The story APOR inflation? They always tell the story of Germany in the nineteen twenties wheelbarrows full of money. Zimbabwe with its trillion dollar bake notes hyperinflation that cripples the entire economy. You can't even put a price tag on an item because it'll go up in two minutes and I mean the short version of what happens is ordinary investors. The people in that first bucket get scared about lending money to the government so the central bank that second bucket they start printing more money to lend to the central government and then investors get even more scared so the central bank prints more money and more and it and it turns into this spiral where inflation just goes up and gets totally out of control and completely destroys money. Basically and that's where you get this crazy. Runaway inflation with prices doubling every week and the value of money completely breaks down. So that's the story and I want to say just as clearly as possible. That is very very very unlikely to happen
Fox News Sunday
Coronavirus infects U.S. economy; millions face financial ruin
"The tri state area has now seen nineteen deaths from the corona virus outbreak New Jersey governor Phil Murphy said today have a total of nineteen hundred and fourteen people in New Jersey have now tested positive for the virus twenty people have died there New York governor Andrew Cuomo said New York has seen one hundred fourteen deaths and over fifteen thousand cases Connecticut has seen five deaths from the virus governor Cuomo today called for the federal government to invoke the defense production act to get factories to make masks ventilators and other medical equipment he says the situation is dire this they cannot manage it states all across the country can't manage it certainly the states that are dealing with the highest caseload can't handle it but you're hearing it all across the country from states they just can't deal with finding the medical supplies that they need on CNN this morning mayor bill de Blasio said sixty people in the city have died from the virus eight thousand in the city are infected his forecast was Graham the truth is and new Yorkers and all Americans deserve the blunt truth it's only getting worse and in fact April and may are to be a lot worse right now we are a third of the cases in the country that's going to get worse for about two thirds or more the cases in New York state that's going to get worse the U. S. is entering a recession the ultimate fear is that it could last a long time and that has some worried about a depression some prominent economy watchers including former White House chief economist Glenn Hubbard and Kevin Hassett and former federal reserve vice chairman Alan blinder have drawn comparisons to the Great Depression although they have stopped short of forecasting