3 Burst results for "Aberdeen James"

"aberdeen james" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

06:27 min | 2 months ago

"aberdeen james" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Good morning and thank you The latest coronavirus wave in the U.S. is taking its toll on some states intensive care units Several parts of the country are seeing outbreaks than are as bad as ever In 15 states patients with confirmed or suspected COVID are keeping up more ICU beds than a year earlier Michigan now has the highest coronavirus Kate race case a rate per capita over in the U.S. Tens of thousands of European Union citizens are still applying to remain here in the UK Months after the government's post of Brexit deadline it's a sign that many businesses may be employing people with so called a settled status People are finding out they don't have the right papers when they start traveling again or trying to change jobs And UK based atom bank is moving to a four day working week One of the most dramatic flexible working policies introduced by a finance firm since a pandemic up ended office norms the FinTech which has 430 employees says contractual working hours will be reduced by three and a half hours to 34 hours per week with no change in salary Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quick take powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries I'm neon guerin's this is Bloomberg Anna Leanne thank you very much for that Let's take a closer look at the markets then this hour I'm pleased to say we're joined by James athlete Investment director at Aberdeen James really nice to speak to you and I want to start with a very short term question I suppose but just because it's been perplexing me a little bit this morning why quite so weak across European stocks this morning Why quite so much Risk aversion do you think Is it to do with COVID but that conversation hasn't necessarily moved on in the last 24 hours or is it to do with more slightly more hawkish commentary from the ECB and whether the ECB has the markets back What's the story James Nice to be here Yeah I'd go to the last side definitely think those comments In general has been somewhat all over the map We've heard a heck of a lot from him In recent weeks and months and is used to seems to vary reasonably significantly from one week to the next But everything that he said yesterday I think would have come as a bit of a cold shower for the European investors who had allowed themselves to believe after the most recent ECB meeting but maybe the pressure on the ECB internally and externally to take away the punch bowl was significantly lessened and then Billy's comment yesterday really did push back against that motion So I think it's a combo right We've seen similar moves in the U.S. and so I think broadly speaking an particularly happy risk environment right here right now Right it's a sort of a tighter policy or tighter financial conditions fear that's kind of across the Atlantic isn't there So just to just for everybody to know it was a governor ECB governor of eloy who said that the ECB is serious about ending pandemic bond buying that the difficulty of space for European stocks is that that came just at the same time as the U.S. market started to factor in tighter policy there and also at a time when Europe is fighting COVID Do you get a sense that that COVID wave is something that could steal impact ECB policy and the extent of its generosity Or do you think that actually that ship has sailed We've learned to live quote unquote with COVID sufficiently that these further lockdowns should not affect too much the economic economic agenda as devastating as they offer people's lives It's a really difficult one As a general law my very glad heuristic for analyzing central banks over the last ten or 15 years has been if there's any excuse to be dovish they would take it And there is no Central Bank that embodies that more than the ECB Mainly for political reasons and just keeping markets from falling out of bed The environment we're in at the moment is significant inflationary pressure but lots of evidence to suggest that at least a good proportion of that is very specifically related to the pandemic the lockdowns and then the stimulus recovery afterwards Then you get the potential for another lockdown potentially without so much stimulus trying to disentangle supply shocks and demand shocks and have any idea about where inflation is going I think is next to impossible I think what's probably the easiest thing to do is say that well if we go back into lockdown there's probably some negative demand effect How that plays out over the more medium term very uncertain but I'm sure the ECB would look at that as a reason to be cautious in the very near term with respect to policy changes We're not expecting them to stop asset purchases to march anyway Okay yes absolutely worth remembering Are we up against the limits of forward guidance or what have we learned then about forward guidance and its utility through this period James Because I mean you know maybe we all expect a little too much of central bankers these days because they've been so prone to forward guidance we're now slightly addicted to it and expect them to be able to tell us what's going to happen in their crystal balls Absolutely 100% agree I don't see forward guidance as being as being anything positive and it never has been For me is this fault there's a false economy You're either making conditional promises in which case they are useful only to the extent that your forecast for accurate and history suggests that nobody is very good at forecasting leads to central banks Or you're making sort of irresponsible promises you're sort of saying well regardless of what the data does we're not going to change policy And I don't understand why that would be a good idea You should surely evolve policy in line with your economic thinking and obviously the evolution of the data So you bind yourself into a situation which actually can create even more volatility in damage when you then have to abandon that later The most egregious and extreme example would be the SMB when they have flaw in the Euro Swiss rate and you saw 25% sort of instance movement in that cross when they were forced to abandon what was an untenable policy It's similar but less dramatic with respect And I don't see that it really adds anything in terms of desirable stimulus So yes central banks are definitely got themselves in a pickle Through their attempts at using forward guidance No doubt theses will be written on the use of Ford guidance over the last ten years or so And what it's brought to the brought to the table or not Let me ask you about these rising yields then this rising yield environment And of course we're in Thanksgiving week so volumes can be a little light and then.

ECB U.S. Anna Leanne James athlete Investment Aberdeen James James Nice UK guerin European Union Bloomberg eloy Michigan Billy government Atlantic Central Bank Europe James
"aberdeen james" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

08:51 min | 2 years ago

"aberdeen james" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Advisory assurance tech features negative nineteen right now I'd also note sterling comes in in in John we don't even mention the bank will roll over Deutsche Bank you know not near record lows but I'm sorry movie there rapidly it doesn't look good it doesn't look good a told if you took a long weekend you've turned up for work this morning exactly what's been going on in the last twenty four hours to do my best to break it down to about thirty seconds we came into the week looking for try talks to restart the Chinese report be looking for now what deal the president thank you professor brought of one then the news ready started to ramp up China effectively blacklisting U. S. basketball team for supporting the Hong Kong protest the United States blacklisting attorneys tech firms for suppressing religious minorities in China and this morning on thing down in Washington reporting that the administration is moving ahead with discussions around possible restrictions on capital flows into China focusing on investments made by US government pension funds I have no idea if that was thirty seconds or not that's kind of a rap in the last twenty four hours the equity market is completely held hostage by the story James and he joins us now senior investment manager at Aberdeen James one on the U. to ahead of us try to stay morning John yeah I think I mean it's difficult to buy anything government it definitely has escalated in the last twenty four hours but essentially the escalation is in line with Molly coal field I think actually most investors because he certainly if you sort of just listen to the conversations out there in the false with your teeth them have come around to the conclusion that this is a home for like an inverted commas which is not going away anytime soon which is more than just about trade in the bilateral trade deficit all calling account deficit and it is more a question all for you know two super powers who have some structural issues between each other that needs to be resolved that's no bipartisan issue in the US we got the short term escalation yeah of course sixty three price but realistically equity happen in almost twice the perfection of life will poems I think of seeing a more realistic outlook both economically and politically slash geopolitical hasn't changed my view a motivational tool because up in defense position or yeah Texas on the specs on the equity market SO one thank comment that we were halfway through the correction and Tom and I were talking yesterday off with water I mean I guess my definition of a correction is five percent sure with two and a half percent from an all time high with half way through but we have very very close to all time highs in the S. and P. five hundred despite the fact that this is the third market scare of the year we have one in the early June we have one in early August and we going through one right here right now James just have defensive do you think the set up is at the moment what is interesting is that because I think a lot of this in a lot of discussion on the law of observation about defense strategies within the equity markets are six allocation sector rotation where we sing defensive quote unquote defense insects have become very expensive at the expense of more complex that some degree is a defensive position but recently the defensive stocks and I pricing a more negative outcome you could very well see a situation where they under perform if we do go into US because that's where the heavy positioning it sucks to me that's not sufficiently defensive for what I'm for what I'm expecting this is the heart of the matter into every listener doesn't matter with our U. S. based or international do I want to be quote unquote defensive or is the best defensive cash yeah I think that's a very good point I mean essentially enough to a mall you to to sort of criticize somebody alarm box is going to be much longer track record that only do investing tools tools of conditions and if you look at the amount of cash the Bosch analyze accumulated has historically been assigned he sees no value in the market for he tends to to to to act in a day for people to be able to have like cash to pick up bargains and they appear and I think that's absolutely a sensible strategy certainly as well when you see the U. S. yield curve inverted you're actually getting a lower yield for investing for a longer period of time relative to invest definitely it's all different flexibility in having an allocation to cash a considerable allocation Catholic from me treasury's cash that's the end of the spectrum that you want to be invested at the moment because again you're not going to market to the office and to me doesn't feel a hopefully through the correction that feels like no he's not on X. something much more and I for the coming just a benchmark of peas price earnings ratios of twelve thirteen being value and maybe fifteen eighteen being what someone would call normal and now we've got this new regime of P. multiples due to lower rates for the reciprocal great what what's James F. these normal P. E. now is it just a permanently not absolutely no I think when we get into those conversations that's normally a sign that we are at the top or a bottom when we sort of feel that things couldn't possibly get any worse so when we fail but we found a new paradigm in the we can buy you competitive cemex I think the first thing to observe is pro forma earnings have a lot going into them which is not necessarily sustainable not necessarily indicative of the underlying profitability of the phones if you look at the data that's produced by the P. if your academic analysis in the U. S. they do is they were school for example whole economy profit not just companies reporting for the S. and P. five hundred and it'll be a bit more lodging but it's a better read about company profitability in the U. S. across the whole economy this is P. ten two thousand fourteen and if you look at the data on who has been buying it please enter the last decade essentially old groups of roughly flatten allocation and corporate sales point point back has been the only game in town and the combination of these two events will be Tuesday to fear is tells me on the nature of what we see in terms of price for both former reported earnings if you know the major corporations in the U. S. there is a much much weaker profitability situation today with my economic forecasting is going to get worse I don't see that getting got a which answers to some back the envelope portfolio construction this morning is one of those mornings where doctors fund portfolio is treating you well the bottom portion is bad the equity portion a self within the fixed income allocation a core fixed income allocation talk to me about what you want to be on the car in treasuries at the moment given how flat back of his right now and we've had this conversation up in the polls children up and running today the centennial year and haven't really worked tile and I think there's a number of reasons why hasn't worked out so much to do with machine transactions certainly the sort of reactive nature of fed policy rather than proactive nature I think some of it is because a lot of investors competition but I still see value in running that co sleeping position I still think that the front end of the U. S. you he's actually very cheap relative to the like keep off federal reserve policy but obviously if you're not allocate you Alan okay market value Tennessee you get a lot more duration but being further out because of I think the thing you would need to be concerned about to know the value even Hey in buying a ten year treasuries some sort of big inflation chocolate I don't think inflation is dead I think this is sort of structural if you like supply shock that we had a total of twenty five thirty years will eventually run its course and inflationary pressures will return and I think that you want to be alone correction I just don't think we're quite there yet and I think you're gonna see value in longer dated US treasuries until we sort of get to zero in federal reserve portions of when something clicks with uncle thirty seconds on the clock but just a quick question for you to say the front end of the yield curve is very cheap that implies that you think the fed funds right got it zero percent in the next two years a day yeah absolutely I think before the end of next year the fed funds right back there are only six of brexit we don't even get a soul thank you James just just put the phone down James and run baseman manager and admitting some cable to coat this is so important folks from the buy side from conservative money to hear that but John this goes back to that without question the essay of the summer yeah I'm always at JP Morgan on that vector below zero percent on the ten year yield it was not a forecast it was a model but people are still talking about that you yo this morning on a ten year one point five two percent becoming three basis points on a two year note one point four three six percent we coming around about three basis points as well outside of that it is risk off in the bond market bones bit him the equity market equity self that low on the S. and P. five hundred by eighteen points with down six tenths of a one percent in foreign exchange a strong Japanese yen from Washington with some came from New York I'm Jonathan ferro this is Bloomberg surveillance will live on Bloomberg radio.

U.S. blacklists Chinese AI firms ahead of trade talks

Bloomberg Surveillance

01:43 min | 2 years ago

U.S. blacklists Chinese AI firms ahead of trade talks

"We came into the week looking for try talks to restart the Chinese report be looking for now what deal the president thank you professor brought of one then the news ready started to ramp up China effectively blacklisting U. S. basketball team for supporting the Hong Kong protest the United States blacklisting attorneys tech firms for suppressing religious minorities in China and this morning on thing down in Washington reporting that the administration is moving ahead with discussions around possible restrictions on capital flows into China focusing on investments made by US government pension funds I have no idea if that was thirty seconds or not that's kind of a rap in the last twenty four hours the equity market is completely held hostage by the story James and he joins us now senior investment manager at Aberdeen James one on the U. to ahead of us try to stay morning John yeah I think I mean it's difficult to buy anything government it definitely has escalated in the last twenty four hours but essentially the escalation is in line with Molly coal field I think actually most investors because he certainly if you sort of just listen to the conversations out there in the false with your teeth them have come around to the conclusion that this is a home for like an inverted commas which is not going away anytime soon which is more than just about trade in the bilateral trade deficit all calling account deficit and it is more a question all for you know two super powers who have some structural issues between each other that needs to be resolved that's no bipartisan issue in the US we got the short term escalation yeah of course sixty three price but realistically equity happen in almost twice the perfection of life will poems I think of seeing a more realistic outlook both economically and politically slash geopolitical hasn't changed my view a motivational tool because up in defense position

President Trump China United States Washington Senior Investment Manager Aberdeen James Professor Hong Kong James John Twenty Four Hours Thirty Seconds