3 Burst results for "25 Chairs"
Bloomberg Radio New York
"25 chairs" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"I think we are very much revisiting the more normal dynamics now. The fed probably won't need to be raising rates as much as they are telling us we need to worry about. That doesn't have a responsibility here to try to preserve market functioning. When we look at recessionary bear markets and we do think we have a recession this year, they tend to be deep and they tend to be very long. What scares me is really the pricing in of the soft landing that has happened since the beginning of the year. This is Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Keene, Jonathan farrow, and Lisa Abramovich. Good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Jonathan farrow, Lisa Brahman, Tom keen on radio on television on a Friday setting up the weekend in the path to February 1st. Lisa Brown was I think in transit, maybe we'll get a maybe we catch her in Davos here before the helicopter takes her out. But what's important, John and you nailed this earlier, vice chairman brainerd spoke about the uncertainties the ambiguities for this weekend as we get to February 1. See what risk management risk management at the Federal Reserve. So when you start to get a little bit more conservative Tom, you go a little bit more slowly. And that's what they're expected to do to drop down for 50 to 25. Chair Powell would talk about walking around a dark room. You've got to be careful. And I think they're worried about the balance now between two risks over doing it. And doing too little. And that's become more balanced in the last few months. I would suggest it's uncharted territory uncertain territory. They're making it up as they go in their data dependent and they saw some lousy data. Data dependent short dependent on what data. That's what we need to talk about. Jobless claims are a 190,000. Unemployment is a 3.5%. Can we continue to see a deceleration in inflation as softening and wages without the deterioration in the labor market so far so good? Can that continue? And how do you compare what you're seeing in claims of what you're hearing from corporations, large multinationals, Google? Making big cuts. Yeah, I agree with that. It'll be interesting as Michael McKee said, this claims day to the shock yesterday of good claims is in the non firm payroll report that I believe we see February 2nd or third. It's right after the fed meeting, but John, to your point, I think this is so important is where are we on the inflation continuum, we've made some headway, but there's still a long way to go, witness Japan. With that 4% CPI. So we've got the BHA still to come in March. We've got to go to the fed and the ECB first. Tom, if there was something to worry about in the data, it's a sub 50 ISM manufacturing and services. And it's kind of odd to see high yield rally in the way it has done to start the year in the face of sub 50 items. That's kind of strange. I look at it as a disinflationary tendency, you go to the work of saint David Rosenberg and you've got in place disinflation, but it's the calculus of at the rate of change of it to get to Q two or Q three. And everybody's got a different opinion on that including John Gollum. This would be hard enough. It's made even more complicated by the fact that China is reopening. And you've seen the Rana yeon, the rally in commodities, copper and crude. Back through weighty on WTI, the rally in the miners, Rio up aggressively, BHP up aggressively from the October lows and the deceleration of weakness you've seen in the dollar story as well some. That's all complicated in the outlook. I don't know what we look like by the time we get to yearend. Just since last hour, the ten year real yield at 1.201 .21 is now one point one 8%. There's something being said there about inflation and in the fixed income space, the gyrations of the week, you wonder where we are Monday or Wednesday of next week. To get you some price action, the ten year right now, three 43, yield time by three or four basis points. You're just a little bit higher this morning across the curve. Outside of that in the foreign exchange market, Euro dollar 108 20 negative tenth of 1% there, Tom. And futures advanced by a third of 1%. Up a third of 1% on the S&P and Tom, I've got to squeeze this in crude, had a little look at AC one earlier. Yes. $80 88 right now. $87 on Brent crude. Foddy B roll, I should say, most eloquent with IEA and Davos with francine and Lisa here in the last couple of days. This is important. It is that every equity strategist has a certain style. The acclaim of Jonathan Gollum and Credit Suisse either courageous bowl or right now with some real reticence is he dives into sector analysis over on page 5 and page 6 of his reports he darkens the door. This morning, what is the sector analysis tell you right now? Well, we put out a note this morning on earnings that we're having a margin problem in the vast majority of the sectors with the exception of surprisingly consumer discretionary is better energy is better and industrials, but short of that, you're seeing margin contraction. Everywhere. But if there's a big sector story, it's a tech is really weak compared to everything else or broadly defined tech. And that's just not something we're used to. The tech is the, this earnings season, if you take tech out or broadly fine, you have a 5% EPS growth this quarter. I mean, who would think that tech is a thing that's holding everything back? And I think that this continues for longer than we think. And this is a hallmark of Credit Suisse. This is linkage between strategists and your securities analysis. Do your tech people as a whole feel news making layoffs can adjust those margins. Can they heal that margin deterioration? And we were talking before we went on air, but what's going on in terms of layoffs and young people coming into the labor market. A lot of this was an over exuberance when we went into the pandemic and things were so strong for tech demand. The company's hired as if this was a new normal of really of strength and what it really is. And this is why tech's having a hard time. It was a pull forward of activity and everyone believed the investment community bought into it the company's bought into it and now it's unwinding companies are laying those workers off. So do we work through this? Yes, but we saw this with Y two K, it doesn't happen in two or three quarters. It takes a little bit of time to work through and that's a few things now. Y two K, pull forward and you talked about this can go on longer than people think. So let's build on that. How much did we pull forward one? And what gives you the sense that this can go on a whole lot longer than people think. And when you say that, what kind of duration do you thinking about? Oh, maybe this ends up being a 6 to 8 quarter period. I mean, just think about this. You know, you bought a laptop because you're now working from home. When you buying the replacement for that, not this year. You went and my mother started using a streaming service for the first time. And she's signing up for the second streaming service now if she wasn't new and or the move towards global advertising, which was, you know, kind of got pulled forward. And so it's not as if the long-term trend is necessarily a negative one, but there was definitely a bit of exuberance as we went into the pandemic. And it just takes a little while. We're also as an investment community. If you look at hedge funds in particular, growth in tech has been such a huge win from the time that the iPhone came out in 2008 to now, everybody staffed up their tech teams. Everybody built processes around it. Nobody wanted to be a value manager. Everyone to be a growth manager. And so it takes a little while for this to kind of get used to this. And you've mentioned this. This is not what we're used to, and with that in mind, this is the question at the moment I think for a lot of people, how compromises the index story, because what we are used to and what the condition by is just sitting at the index on the S&P, passively, and being very rewarded for it. How compromises that index story going to be for how long? I'm not sure it's compromised. I'll tell you. So yesterday, last night, I had dinner with head traders at some of the bigger shops. And I said, if you were a choice between buying the tech basket, cap weighted or the tech basket equal weighted, how many would buy the cap weighted? What did they say? Not one hand went up. How many would you buy the equal weighted all ten hands went up? And so there's a lot of great names. So if you're if you're trading, if you're looking for individual securities, there's
WFAN Sports Radio_FM
"25 chairs" Discussed on WFAN Sports Radio_FM
"It's time for a green party. Connor Green is in this morning, which means it's a Green party and we did this story yesterday for stunt to a news. This kid in Arizona didn't want to go to the tire shop yet again for works. We faked his own kidnapping, complete with calling the authorities and they're being taken to the hospital and then realizing you have no injuries. And so Connor is here to tell us the three best things about faking your own kidnapping. Connor, take it away. All right. D a number one is the most simple of them all. You just get the day off. You know, sometimes you don't feel like going to work. You're tired. Maybe you had a little too much to drink the night before and you just can't do it. So why use one of your vacation days? Save those for the summer. Instead you get some duct tape. You get some zip ties. You get a Sharpie and pretend you have a black eye and bam! Enjoy the day. Take a load off. You can sit down. Watch some daytime TV, Maybe a little Jerry Springer crack open a nice cold Capri sun. You conduce you whatever you would like. And you know, back in the day I was a cabana boy at the beach, A cabana brochure and I prefer to be called a cabana man. But that's neither here nor there Some days it would be scolding hot. You're sweating. You're tired. And then some guy would show up with a family of four. And for some reason, he would need 12 umbrellas, 25 chairs and seven tables and I have no idea why. I wish I knew. Then what I know now now, I wouldn't know what to do. They say Hey, Connor, can you come in tomorrow? Now? Sorry. I have plans to get kidnapped. I can't do it. What about next Wednesday? Sorry. No, I'm feeling a hostage situation coming on. I can't come in. Being bang boom. I'm out of work. And instead of working at the beach, I'm hanging out on the beach with a pinnacle autumn. Be a man. I'm feeling a.
Xtra Sports Radio 1300 AM
"25 chairs" Discussed on Xtra Sports Radio 1300 AM
"A green party. Connor Green is in this morning, which means it's a green party. And we did this story yesterday for stunt to a news. This kid in Arizona didn't want to go to the tire shop yet again for works. We faked his own kidnapping. Complete with calling the authorities and they're being taken to the hospital and then realizing you have no injuries. And so Connor is here to tell us the three best things about faking your own kidnapping. Connor take it away. All right. D a number one is the most simple of them all. You just get the day off. You know, sometimes you don't feel like going to work. You're tired. Maybe you had a little too much to drink the night before and you just can't do it. So why use one of your vacation days? Save those for the summer. Instead you get some duct tape. You get some zip ties. You get a Sharpie and pretend you have a black eye and bam! Enjoy the day. Take a load off. You can sit down watch some daytime TV. Maybe a little Jerry Springer crack open a nice cold Capri sun. You conduce you whatever you would like, and you know, back in the day I was a cabana boy at the beach Cabana burst, and I prefer to be called a cabana man. But that's neither here nor there Some days it would be scalding hot. You're sweating. You're tired. And then some guy would show up with a family of four. And for some reason, he would need 12 umbrellas, 25 chairs and seven tables and I have no idea why. I wish I knew. Then what I know now now, I wouldn't know what to do. They say Hey, Connor, can you come in tomorrow? No. Sorry. I have plans to get kidnapped. I can't do it. What about next Wednesday? Sorry. No, I'm feeling a hostage situation coming on. I can't come in. Being bang boom. I'm out of work. And instead of working at the beach, I'm hanging out on the beach with a pinnacle autumn. Be a man. I'm feeling a hostage situation coming up Con agreeing Cabana man, It's coming. The theater's director blew right, actually. A.