The sting in John Bercow's resignation
Just before we start listening to this podcast reminded that we have a special subscription offer he can at twelve issues with the spectator for twelve pounds as well as the twenty pound Amazon voucher the go-to. You spectator dot com forward slash voucher. If you'd like to get this offer hello and welcome to coffeehouse shorts aspartame aged eighty and these days Davey today. I'm joined by chance aside for an Jason Stein. Special Advice left a in the twentieth Friday. Just suck leaving Saturday evening designed now. We've had a morning post. Oh cost ready but looking forward. The Big News in Westminster. Carton is the fact that jump back the have common speaker has said that he will not be seeking reelection that he is going to stand stand down as speaker and he's given to dates if MP's vote for a general election tonight as the government hopes will do he will resign immediately if if they refused to do that he will stay on to thirty fast October James in number ten ligament popping out the champagne. I've been a stay in the tail burqa announcing because no one expects house going to vote for an election tonight and it's highly likely the house comes can so we don't have the thirty first. I bought means that the newspeak would be chosen by this house. I'm this House of Commons is into again pick because this house is obsessed with Brexit more than any other topic comes is again likely to pick an activist remains speaker now obviously Boris Johnson were defining election winning thumping majority of the <hes> the speaker would would be a minor irritant to him. It's the hung parliament that is given Berko so much power an opportunity the defense but I the government will probably have preferred for book of simply just stood down when the election came meaning but the speaker will be Chosen Avenue House of Commons Jason. Your former boss amber rod some he's referred to jump back as an active speaker use of workplace if the One Nation Cokes Focus Group of conservative. MP's tend not take the same approach to Johnson on Brexit. Do you think there is some conservative. MP's who'd be sad to see John Burke ago absolutely John Burke has always been a thorn in the side of the government really and I think they will be James said desperate thousand comments to get someone like Harry Hormone where she'd be available someone like that who will take the same approach to for straightening the government and frustration brexit frustration convention Osberg dead. I think it will be quite something anyone to match the lengths that John Berko has gone to say but they wouldn't have to match them because he is now creating precedent yes in the the way the the way the British system works berries now precedent for the next week the next week. You won't have to change the rules next week. We'll just say well as as as happened previously and I think actually one of the great tragedies of John Burke is and this is a highly unlikely scenario to vote but let's imagine that Brussels and came back with a majority which is a a slight structure in the moment and then even even biggest rush a big enough majority to do what he wanted. I think if I was a Tory majority of fifty plus which is we get into the realms of highly unlikely the first act because of Berko the first act of government or the first actively government our strong majority is going to be applying speaker in evacuating because Berko GEICO has basically so expanded the powers of the speaker by any government with a big majority is going to say right. We want someone who's just going to be on and do our staff off will do it straight away when the House Commons comes back and the hope but new did acted. MP's will be more inclined to defer to executive. I mean I I think the what John Tuck has done for. Speakership is absolute tragedy because you could argue about the exactly more sponsored palm. You can only give it the balance it's that poems had ceased to be the copy of nation that too much stuff was happening in the newspapers raw than in the Commons chamber you can make all of those cases on Huntington thirty to all of them but what the market has made the role so point is on in how it is conceived. He's never come on procedure. He's never surprised anyone finding procedure in suddenly suddenly breakfast favor which nobody expected has he and I think he's from. I also think there was a massive problem which is when. MP's said we're going to leave on buck in place despite the Cox report into bullying what it said about beneath an urgent need for new leadership because breakfast is more important I mean not just an absolutely awful message but essentially these issues all minor compared to these big questions of state and I mean that I mean that was a very bad message to send. CHANC- thinking charity will be restored good. I mean it's very hard to see how neutrality is restored because this is what's so tragic at the office. We live in highly polarized times right. Whatever the result of that action the next ex government is going to be a fairly polarizing government I would suspect and because he has made the office pointers on Vats not going to be getting that neutrality back doc once lost is going to take a very long time now on the subject of an early election Jason you set the cat among the pigeons today and an interview prior to this interfered. I didn't worry want the first which she suggested that there's been polling in number title polling number ten seen which are desolate whether an election did tweets are actually lose seats. Can you tell me about that. Yeah I mean I'm surprised at this because firstly polling as potentially be pointing out. Is that be beaten. This is is a projection of what would happen if election took place under the current circumstances in the current conditions as we know elections and campaigns completely change polling that was done prior to this shows number ten no that we are going to lose a party seats in areas that we he picked up in two thousand fifteen because our message simply does not work in its current format in areas that David Cameron took from the Lib Dem's and band is to say I'm. I'm surprised that number ten onto the pushing more the fact that they will be able to outperform this on the key to that of course he's talks you get the election election first place. I think number Tan will still be able to manufacture an election in people versus. The establishment people versus parliament conditions. I think they will be able to do that and do you think that the Conservative Party party in its current trajectory so appetizing. It's leave credentials can make up for the seats. They use just released. I think those people say you name places like Scotland Metropolitan Areas Skeptical about a to have what I call a Bolsover I approach it didn't work in two thousand seventeen although it would be done on steroids in twenty nineteen. I'm not convinced there are forty to forty five areas of this country desperately waiting to vote conservative that have never vote conservative before but frankly I'm waiting to be proved wrong. Theresa May in two thousand seventeen much much week accompanied too much week. A message was able to win areas like stoke on Cleveland in these areas so theresa may can do boardrooms do a better job of it James in your son call them at the weekend he wrote. It's about how one of the reasons that there is a sense of unease in the conservative party at the moment even if a number ten they're very focused is ministers and MP's. Don't not necessarily feel like understand the strategy in terms of the seats. They're going to pick up. Do you think it is is becoming clearer. We can expect more clarity over the coming days. The number turns Rushdie is essentially to run the twenty seventeen strategy better. They've got so much better. Campaign intrigues may not gonNA come up with Dolph. Manifesto has lots of e agrees proposals easels in that people don't like and this time unlike in twenty seventeen brexit forget the phrase but is clearly endanger is quite clear. The mind joined the Tories do not win a majority or do not win a majority in combination with the DUP brexit ain't going to happen because you are in a situation where the best result also break stay could hope from from the next parliament would be a second referendum and it would be a second referendum wave votes for sixteen yards votes. EU nationals you name it all these things stacked act into the deck to try and ensure of the result returned was remain so in a way but is your message honey number ten is a twin track strategy of in those Labor leave seats rates. BREXIT's endanger the establishment trying to steal it from me. You've got to go out and vote for again and by way same time. Have you seen all spending review winnowed party. We're going to spend more money on the jess. We're GONNA spend put more money into your Oh kids school. We're going to put more police on the beat clamp down on crime then I've an attempt to hold onto those seats vote which have harmed portion of <unk> remain voters. Tori voices award about no deal is essentially to say this election is about whether you want Boris Johnson Attorney Corbyn Prime Minister and you might think no deal is going to be economically disruptive even but have you thought about how economically disruptive Corwin government is going to be and remember that the coping governs economic disruption. It is easier to make the personal to people because it's going to come in the form of increased taxes on you personally. That's claimed to wear number ten looking. I think thing is getting to a majority. The Paul is hard. I was looking to one poster whose judgment I respect act. He said they'd run the numbers and giving the essentially the tourist the Tory stretches essentially sees them full back to probably about two ninety and then they've got a basically he come back up. We're not going to find the gains to get back over the hill. They're all a few ladies which are quite easy pickings with small majorities where the Labor rampage standing down essentially indicates that confident of holding onto the seat. This posed was saying that they'd run for they worked out where they fall things were and they come up with tourism. The DP combined free shorts from majority and that person was assuming that essentially number ten campaign framing what so getting a majority is going to be hard having one of the reasons why two of the reasons amber rudd resigned from the from the gum and she objected to being taken away from twenty one tory. MP's one of the reasons number Tan belt where they had to do that is they think that if they win a majority it's going to be a slim one and they cannot tolerate a situation where they win a majority and then they come back and end up in the same situation that they are now because they have fifteen to twenty two ramp up saying well actually on not with you on Brexit so I'm going to vote with the oppositional not one on this why the Labour moderates are absolutely mad not to be taking on Corden because in an election in the produces results similar to what you diagnose James Coalition talks are dead on arrival. If Jeremy Corbyn is the man who who was the replacement minster but this is what I mean this is what I would criticise about the twenty one Tory rebels and amber rudd to be frank which is British politics politics. Essentially this is the choice choice Boris Johnson Attorney Gordon and you pay your money. You takes the choice this whole idea. There isn't some magical third way auction. I Eh people aren't going to get to suddenly make somebody else. Prime Minister in it is however fracture of politics is I find it very very hard to imagine that someone someone who isn't either the leader of the Conservative Party over Labor Party would be the prime minister after general election now talking about Casey prison focus about scenarios where someone's going to be prime minister for three or four day. Maybe that could be someone who's not believe if we can so it's not I doubt even that but the idea that you're going to have a long-term occupant of number number ten who is not believable. Conservative Party not believable party strikes me slightly for the birds and I think people who own reflect on that aren't being serious. Now finally parliament will be provoked night. The government have announced and that means that poem suspended for several weeks before returning mid October before we get that there every few plans the opposition. MP's have in mind given the brochures and doesn't have a working majority and one is a humble address. Try and get the communications on no deal between several special advisers and politician James what they're trying to do here trying to Barris the government. They essentially want to show that. Perogie was about brexit not about according speech. I even have argument that they can then say that Boris Johnson has misled the house because he said it was about Queen Speech Rollin about Brexit. This claim is in this Hubbard is audacious to say the least it is essentially seeking everybody's private messages whatsapp Taliban especially the C. exactly it does remind me of a story that one special adviser before Jason's time told me that he was used to read the reports on terrorism some cases because he found that the ways they found communicating an untraceable ways but very useful. He's what's on the web. Having a geometric you never actually sent the g mail but you let other people look into it and and read it in the draft but there was never any record of it actually having been said so. I would be surprised if this address were succeed and I think again. There's even a suggestion that transport cost comes but it's too much even for John Burkett even John Burqa would regard granted this one. I was having this again this humble the address the very bad precedent government legal advice. I think there is a justification for the government keeping that confidential sure I mean this is a kind of again David. This is particularly sensible situation Jason. You've very recently been in government. This is an attempt to get hold of what Zaps of various communications. How'd you think you would if this had happened to you if it was on my work phone I can tell you that thing thing is was only ever used a torch. It was never used to communicate so I would say if the rebels trying to get hold of people's phones have not specified whether they personal or work votes. I'd say the stuff is could get round that by hunting in the workfare which will be completely clean because no one does anything on those as for handing ending in personal fans. I wouldn't want my what's up history. Necessarily read out to the House of Commons buzz. James says loads of the trick nice ways to get around these things confirmed sources and methods shouldn't be discussed by intelligence agents. It will wind up this podcast episode. We make it much harder to do our job. Thank you James. Thank you Jason <music>.