Effectively Wild Episode 1586: Duke it Out

Automatic TRANSCRIPT

Hello and welcome to episode fifteen, eighty, six, effectively wild a baseball podcast fan graphs presented by. Supporters I am Ben. Derek Ringer joined by Miller of ESPN BELOW SAM. Can I give you my favorite phone back today sure. The giants and the brewers currently are tied in the standings. They have slightly different winning percentages because they play different number, but they're they're tied in the standings and like maybe a half game out of the playoffs each and if you were to take the brewers team leader in opie s plus he would rank ninth on the giants. The giants we're talking about the giants here. We're not talking about the dodgers. We're not talking about the Yankees were talking about the giants have eight hitters better than the brewers best hitter this year while yeah. We've been calling them the chaos giants on the Ringer Milky Show because it just it looked like they weren't going to be very entertaining. You're very. Good and then they just keep winning and they blow people out and they have people having all of these really surprising seasons especially offensively, which is what you're talking about. So I don't know what to make them, but it's pretty wild season. Can you name to giants relievers? I, mean, can you name one but can you name to giants relievers? Oh Gosh. no. No I mean really I come from a I come from giants household I live in the West Coast I have a lot of acquaintances who talked about China if anybody should sort of like Kinda know the giants bullpen, you know I it should probably be me and You know you got your Tony Watson and you got your trevor got and then and then, and then it kind of gets a little like Juan de Peralta is on this team and he's thrown sixteen innings in relief person named Caleb Bara Dr Never Heard of Sam Selman Scott My name never heard of him. Connor Minez has pitched eleven innings for them Tyler Rogers who is the less famous rogers twin song that team Harlan Garcia I, saw yesterday for the first time on this team another Sam same coon rod anyway. Yeah. The bullpen is the reason that they're tied with the brewers Kaz. The bullpen hasn't been very good but eight hitters better than Christian. Yelich this year. Well. Evidently. It's kill a barrier I believe hardly a household name anyway. Yeah. So I've seen a couple of fun facts that sort of entertain me this week to both home run fun facts which really have become a lot less entertaining in recent years because people have sort of abused them, there have been so many home runs hit that they're constantly records being set and so it's not much fun. Anymore we've talked about that before and a couple homerun fun facts that actually did make me say in both of them were courtesy of Jeremy Frank at MLB random stats on twitter and the first one was. laid August August, thirtieth he tweeted that the cubs were the first team since one, thousand, nine, hundred, and likely be history to have all three starting outfielders hit multiple home runs in the same game. Yeah which surprised me and I had to think about it a little bit and when you think about it, I, guess it's not that shocking. 'cause you know in order to have all three starting outfielders hit multiple home runs in the same game. That's six homers by one team in the same game that's fairly rare or had been until pretty recently, and then they have to be those three specific. And granted the corner outfielders are among the likeliest skies on a typical team to hit multiple home runs but maybe not the center fielder. So all those things have to line up, but still there's so many seasons in so many games in so many teams that I really would have thought that that would have happened. So at some point. Okay. So I just WanNa clarify here that your your the reason that you liked this fun fact was not because you think the cubs did something particularly special but rather. That thing that they did, which is what it, what it is. It had never been done before. It was the fact that we made it this far without that specific thing happening right because it's not more impressive than three other position players, multiple homers in a game but just you'd think with enough repetitions that just happened twelve point. Yeah. So let me ask you what if if the leftfielder second baseman and Catcher had done it and that combination had never happened would would you have been interested properly not know What you're getting you're getting soft in your old age and you're getting duped. This is you know that there is nothing particularly notable about the outfielders a unit it's just a collection of three of the eight positions. They have that happen to be sort of along the same line in the field but you know they often talk about them as a unit though, let know best outfield fastest outfield whatever. But we we do. Right. There are. So there are let's see. There are three hundred and thirty six combinations of three positions. If you exclude pitchers hand exclude the ages which you you could include the ages but I'm not so three hundred, thirty, six possible iterations of this trifecta and three players on a team have homered twice in a game only sixty times in major league history. So this is. What the cubs did is kind of rare 'cause that that fact only three, three, three players an Elena homering twice in a game only happens every other year kind of rare and the fact that it was left field center field right field. You've already granted me is not that interesting yeah. Well, as you say I'll fun facts lie and this sort of Hawaii it's not really a lie, but it's maybe a little deceptive or. Distorts things just because you're grouping together three positions that have some significance together and yeah. When you think about it a little more you almost WANNA retract your well but I already said well, so I can't take it back and this is the other one and this one lies I. think a little more even than that one and this was something that MLB tweeted or shared that the braves made history because for the first time. A team went with back-to-back three homer games by individual players. So the braves got back to back three home games by Adam divall and Marcel Zona or the other way round, and that was the first time that had ever happened. The Yankees apparently had done it on back to back days in one, thousand, nine, thirty when Babe Ruth and Lou Garrick did it but there is a double header so there is a game in. Between and this one sort of made me say, wow, because again, you know three home games are pretty rare but the fact that that has never happened in back to back games surprise me at first although as I have seen, some other people point out there has been a team that had multiple players hit three homers in the same game, which is in a sense more impressive rate but that happened in two thousand, one, Richie. And Jeremy Permits both hit three homers in the same game for the brewers. and. That fun fact is omitted from the other fun fact because it would sort of take away from the specialness I mean who cares about back to back days if? People in the same game sat game. Yeah. Yeah. I I. I. Mean I guess it's still sort of surprising that it hasn't happened in backed back days as well but it's twice as likely in back to back days. Yeah. That's true. So I guess it is even more surprising that that hasn't happened and yet somehow less special because it happened in the same game. So who cares about fact back to him so they both either omit something or distort something in order to make it. Work but both of them achieved their goal of making you say wouldn't have expected that I truly believe that what you are really identifying that you've reached a point in your career where you're you're more in need of content it is hard for you to find fresh content that you feel the burden of repetition in your life and you are sort of your falling for the pundits fallacy now where where you are just in search of of really anything that is novel you, I don't. Think. That two thousand, sixteen Ben would have said, wow. Either of those things maybe that maybe I'm listening to I, think you might be by the way I my query was complicated by I. Did it wrong? So in fact, twenty times, three players in the same lineup have homered in a game. Twenty not not sixty. Okay. Well you know as long as we're GONNA be talking about our own kind of personal weaknesses when it comes to new content creation, you know, I'm going to give you my favorite extra innings game of the week. Okay sure. This was two days ago the Astros and the Rangers were playing, and so the Rangers start with a runner on second Shinsu Chew Ground's out to second base and the runner goes to third and everything I'm going to say today about this game in the next is, is all based on again this expectation that I had coming into this that we were going to see a lot of repetition, a lot of groundouts to second base and a lot of sack flies. The extra innings we're GONNA seem formulaic and predictable, and so here we have ground out to second base runners at third. Now, here's how the rest of the game goes the runner on Third Scott Heinemann. He fakes steal of home causes the pitcher to balk then. So now the rangers have the lead Isaiah of FALESA grounds to short Carlos Correa. kind of perhaps frustrated doesn't feel that with much urgency throws in the. The ball is not scooped by the first baseman runner on first now, and then a popout Senate to outs runner on Joey Gallo up with one run lead Joey Gallo bunce, Joey Gallo bunce with a runner on first and two outs, and the Bundy is not that good. but Martine Maldonado calls off the pitcher runs out to feel that throws it down the line kind of scores from I on this wild throw and the Rangers get two run lead next inning. Forget something happened. But anyway. So that's it fake steal of Home Bach and then showy Gallo bunting with two outs and run I leading to shockingly a throw. While throw the allows runner to score. So is it like a shift beating because? Before I mean it's conceivable that he was thinking that. But even even with two outs, you wouldn't expect it with Joey. Gallo. He ended at right-back to the pitcher. It wasn't a particularly good could but I mean, clearly, it was a shift beating bunt I mean what else would he be bunting for so? In that sense yes it was probably an attempted to shift beating done. So the the lack of particularly and so then a few minutes later, the cubs and the pirates were in extra innings and the Ho- Harvey by as was the runner on second and there's ground ball second base and buy it goes to third and then Jason Heyward flies to right field and scores sacked fly in. So that's the sort of predictable thing that I was dreading but in between Willson contreras batted and Wilson Control as grounded to first base. The first Baseman muffed it. The ball went to the second baseman Harvey by as held it third until the ball got away and then he started to go home. The second basement picked the ball up through the ball home buyers had gone halfway down the line stops in a panic sprints back to third catcher Jay stallings gets the ball, but can't get a good grip on it and doesn't throw and so in between the predictable ground at the second and the predictable sac fly to right field there was a four three fielder's choice in which controls reached and Baya's didn't score and that just goes to the second thing that I've been saying which I just want to reinforce is that something about this situation causes teams to? Lose their minds everything is so sloppy. I'm probably imagining it or I'm probably just noticing it more because the stakes are so high. But when you start watching these players play with the runner on the go ahead, run on second base or third base you see how many mistakes they were I mean you know a Bach a box, and then a throw down the line on a bunt and then and then this weird four three, four fielder's choice where nobody is retired and it's all it's all wild. So extra innings continues to work. You truly are the best spokesman. For the automatic, Renner, if the extra runner had somehow hired someone to make the case for why this rule is great, they could that be doing a better enthusiastic. Than you are with this rule, everything happens everything happens now it's fantastic. It's opening up it is opening up sequences baseball that just don't. Exist. So, there's automatic runner rule email that we can segue into in just a second. I just wanted to say I've been reading all these remembrances of Tom Seaver who died on Wednesday at seventy five and of course of the remembrances have the incredible stats and how he was during his career in at the end of his career up to that point, he was probably the best pitcher of all time and they. All go through the three Cy Young Awards in the three hundred eleven wins and on and on and on. But all of the memorials include they all touch on certain highlights. You know most of them mentioned obviously the nineteen, sixty nine season and how important he was to the miracle mets and than the nineteen seventy eight no hitter with the reds and then winning his three hundredth game with the white sox and. Every moment. Every milestone in his career that happened happens with that team and at that time, just almost as a result of complete chance it was just like a fluke of timing that he went where he went when he went there because of when he arrived, which is true for any player at any time I suppose because you have free agency and you have the draft and everything and players don't really. Control where they end up and where they build their legacies but I don't know if for any inner circle Great Hall of Famer and of course, famous for having the highest percentage of support on Hall of fame ballot to that point I don't know if any player like that has had a clear illustration of the way in which players are just sort of at the mercy of whoever signs them trades for them. Whatever is happening at that point in their career because of course, he was drafted for the first time in nineteen, sixty five, which was the first year of the draft. So if he had come along a few years earlier than who knows what would have happened, someone would assign them he would've gone there. He might have been bonus baby or something he might not have spin met I mean the mets weren't. Around before nineteen sixty two but you know maybe he would have been nicknamed the franchise no matter what franchise he went to but he's so closely associated with that one and he ended up with the mets just really I mean totally as a result of chance there is this whole controversy where he he didn't sign when he was initially drafted and then he did sign but there is this big buckle reading from. Stephen Goldman's piece at BP here after his Sophomore Year of college, the dodgers selected him in the tenth round of the nineteen sixty five draft. That was when he declined seaver went back to school after his junior year the brave selected him in the now defunct January phase of the amateur draft. The braves took their time about sending a contract but seaver did sign before that though USC played a couple of. Exhibition, Games SEAFORD did not participate nevertheless a forever unnamed representative of a team called the Commissioner's Office and pointed out a rule that said, no college player could sign wants his school season had started and his school season technically hadn't started but nevertheless, Lee, macphail propping up empty suit commissioner. Spike. Eckert voided the contract and so he could have gone back to school for his senior year but then he was ruled ineligible. So so sorry. Okay. I don't know this story. So yeah, he was drafting the secondary phase which means basically the players who didn't sign in June were eligible for the secondary phase which happened in January and you're saying that because his team had played some exhibition games in the middle of the winter, it was deemed that their season had begun. Yes and so this the braves signing him was ruled void and and this ruling that he was. Ineligible for the draft was not made before the draft like it's poor braves because when when someone tells you Tom seaver is eligible for the draft you trust that they're telling you the truth I mean nothing could be worse than trapping player and then having someone go we didn't we didn't tell you he's not even eligible well, I think they drafted him before those exhibition games happened and then they took their time they didn't send him. Okay. Sign immediately, and then there were these exhibitions. Oh. That seems fair. Then because the US, the exhibition games didn't happen in in the middle of winter they had. The braids happened after that trap the point is of the rule might. Is partly to keep teams from waiting to see how you look in a game before they sign you maybe then that seems reasonable to me. I I actually Kinda think that. That's a good ruling. Well, I mean the exhibition games were exhibition games. So I mean yeah but they hadn't really started us. He didn't play in any way. So it's a it's a I it seems fine to rule either way. All right. I'm sorry I know I know the deals. So then he was ruled ineligible to go back to school for his senior year because. turned pro because. He had signed that contract and even though that contract was voided, he was now locked out of the NCAA as well and so the the compromise that they came up with was just a lottery a seaver only draft that any team other than the braves and the dodgers I guess who had drafted him in that first draft any team that was willing. To match the braves negotiated bonus package of fifty, one, thousand dollars Steve says, it was any team that matched that could be in this lottery and just be eligible to get safer by chance and only Cleveland, and the Phillies were interested initially and the mets scouting director at the time thought that seaver lacked stuff. So initially, they weren't interested, but then the. Other members of the front office persuaded the GM to participate. So the mets and these other participants were in this Derby perceiver they literally put names in a hat and pick them out and so that's why Tom seaver was a met. So the whole legacy of Tom seaver being met and being the best player in that franchise's history came about because of. A random drawing of his name from hat. Wow. Yeah, and then after that. So the reason why he didn't spend his whole career with the mets and transferred to Cincinnati in one, thousand, nine, hundred, seventy, seven, he was traded by the mets to the reds, which was a huge deal at the time that they had done that and one of the reasons or. The. Main reason was that he was kind of in a contract dispute with the team because he had signed this three year contract with them, and then all of a sudden free agency started and even though he had been the best pitcher of his era, he was suddenly leapfrogged by a few other guys in salary and you know he had argued that. He deserved more than he got before. He actually signed that contract, but the Mezzo wouldn't give him more and then suddenly free agency happened he sort of missed out on that initial boom and so he wanted to renegotiate his contract because of that the mets said, nope not interested and so they traded him and so he went the reds in nineteen seventy seven. Again sort of a fluke that free agency just happened to start at that particular time and that he was moved indirectly because of it, and so if you go on Youtube and watch his low no hitter in nineteen, seventy, eight with the reds which I was just watching some of myself it comes not with the team he is most associated with. That game was like just a little over two hours long by the way I was just watching it and they're no graphics on the screen which I find very distracting. Now, I'm so used to just seeing the count and the outs and the score and the the base out situation and all of it on the screen, and there's just nothing which I guess. What you see when you actually go to a game, but now to me, it's distracting not to see all that stuff but I will link to that go check it out, and then his one of his signature moments has his three hundred. Th Win comes with the White Sox and he was chosen by the white sox from the mets. He had gone back to the mets and nineteen eighty two in a trade, and then the white sox selected him as a free agent compensation pick. So there was this free agent pool at the time and He was left unprotected in that pool, which made sense because he was thirty nine year old pitcher and the mets didn't think that the white sox would select a thirty nine year old pitcher in this process and so they protected a bunch of young players in their pool and instead they took Tom Seaver, which seems like it should be a violation of some sort of unwritten rule of transactions f you should be able to to take the guy named the franchise in a draft this if he's thirty nine years did name for different franchise though. Wells, I mean, he he was with the mets at the time with the mets. So yeah, I feel like you should just leave him with that franchise. So anyway, that pick was so embarrassing for baseball that they did away with that pool plan I think not long after that. So all these moments like whether it's the the six nine world series or the no hitter or the three hundredth win they all came about because of the structures that existed in baseball at the time that hadn't existed for long before seaver in some cases didn't. Exist for long after seaver and he was just kind of buffeted by these rules and transactions that He really had no control over and you know again, probably just would have been at inner circle. Great. No matter where he was playing or when he was playing. But the way that we think of his career was so shocked by these circumstances that he really had nothing to do with, which is Kinda the case for most players. I. Suppose. But I don't know that anyone is sort of a a better example of that than Tom seaver. and. He didn't pitch. You said, he didn't pitch in the exhibition games his team played, but he didn't play in this right? Okay I'm back to now. Yeah. Yeah. So again, what was he supposed to like he was on this team that scheduled some exhibition games I guess he could've quit the team or something, but I mean what a team really like if you really had a sinister coach, what the coach would do is, yeah schedule an exhibition game the after the draft and then right your your players. If you don't WanNA, lose your players to the majors. Then you just have an exhibition game happen immediately. No time for him to sign. Anyway. That's one of the things that struck me about Tom Seaver is I was reading these things and I will link to some of them because I am too young to have seen Tom seaver pitch his. Last season was the season just before I was born and he was really good even then in his forties in fact, he was so good. Then he was still like a a league average pitcher at that. That he was traded in that season at that deadline, he was still good enough in his final season for team to want to acquire him and it was the white sox who had gotten him in that pool that we were just talking about they traded him June twenty ninth nineteen, eighty six to the Red Sox for Steve Lyons and something that I hadn't realized that Joe Sheehan mentioned in his piece is that you? Could have a scenario where seaver was facing the mets in the nineteen, eighty six playoffs and that would have been amazing and Joe rates unfortunately a knee injury prevented him from pitching in the playoffs leaving us with the tantalizing what if of Tom seaver coming out of the visitors bullpen at Shea Stadium in game six or game seven win a couple of shutout innings could have also changed baseball history so that would have been something. Yeah. Cool. By the way the Rangers were up to case now you got to the bottom of the tent and now I remember what happened. So can start with a runner on second and Michael Brantley singles to a little flair to Centerfield and Jose. altuve has to to hold to wait to see if it's GonNa land, and so he gets a late break and you know his his run doesn't matter they're down by two and so normally he. Would play it safe and stay at third. But for some reason, he decides to go home even though again, his run doesn't matter and the center fielder fields it throws home seems like he's got his shot at altoona and again normally since two as run doesn't matter, you wouldn't even pay attention to him because you'd want to keep the runner on first but it seemed like he actually had a real shot at Altoona and then the. First Baseman Yu Audio Rivera who had just entered the game and is not a regular first baseman he sort of like in my recollection he like flies across the Infield to cut the ball off and it looks sorta awkward and wrong and that maybe cost the rangers a chance of getting an out at home on to say in this weird scenario where there would never normally you would never have a play there because the run doesn't. Count and there was this long discussion about whether he did the right thing whether they had a chance to get to look like he did. But on the other hand, You keep Michael Brantley at first and then on the next pitch, Yuli Gurriel grounds into a double play and so the decision to cut the ball off turned out to be the correct one even if it was maybe done seemingly done incorrectly by an inexperienced first baseman perhaps. All right. Well, I'm glad you went back to that because now I can transition neatly to this email Mrs from Adam who sometimes helps us with stat plastic and he says I was listening to Ben and Sam's recent discussion and starting run second in every inning. Of maybe the biggest reason it wouldn't work. So we listed like seventeen recent why? Didn't seem like a good idea to have the extra innings role in every inning and we missed this one. Which I think is a good one having a runner on second would dramatically increase the run-scoring environment leading to fewer close games. So the reason why we had this automatic runner rule to end games more quickly by having these imbalanced run totals that would also have an effect in. Earlier innings to and you just get fewer close game. So Adam says, I, did some simulations using extols probabilities of scoring x runs given the bay state from historical data with the normal format and games with a runner on second to start every inning in the normal game. Thirty percent of games are within one run after nine innings if you had the runner on second in every inning. That would be only twenty two percent. If you had the normal rules forty-seven percent or within two runs with the extra runner ruled that would be thirty six, percent normal sixty, two percent within three runs not normal forty, nine percent within three runs normal seventy, three percent within four runs normal sixty percent within four runs. So you just get a lot less suspense and a lot fewer close. Games at the end and Adam says I do have a suggestion on one possible rule change that would add strategy without drastically altering the run-scoring environment what if each team could choose a single inning of the first nine where they could start with a runner on second teams would have to choose when to use the runner. If they used I, they could engineer it. So the best hitters. were up with a good base runner and get out to an early lead or they could save it for a leverage inning. Late in the game, what do you think of this rule in? How would you use it? All right. So let's put the rule aside for a second. I think that I don't think that I missed Adam address, but the Games wouldn't be as close on the. Scoreboard but a three run lead would be a lot less if you start every inning with a runner on right like as a team that's trying to come back if you are down three in a much higher scoring environment than you're more likely to come back than if you're down three and a lower scoring environment and so I think that he's correct to that if you increase the Amount of scoring, and then you are naturally like for the same reason, a that the teams are less likely to be even after one extra inning that same forces are more likely to cause a greater spread of runs over the course of nine innings, and so you're more likely to have less close games but also part of that is real part of that is just an illusion it. Looks like it's not as close because you're down by six but down by six doesn't mean what it used to mean or what means under the current rules and that's I think that that is both correct. But that comes up anytime you talk about changing the the run-scoring environment anything that Major League baseball could ever do or or that happens naturally to affect the run-scoring environment like for instance. The, the juice ball makes it less likely that you'll have a close game in the ninth inning, but it also makes it more likely that if you're down in the ninth inning that you'll be able to come back and there's that there's that balance you want to find that balance because if you make it too hard to score, then you're definitely going to have a close game but well usually but. You're also GONNA. Make Games that are three to nothing in the fourth inning seem out of out of reach I think Adam is probably right though I think that there would be more games where it would feel like a comeback was less likely but I don't think it's like a huge thing now as the rule where you get to pick one inning where you can do that, what do you think? Well I think it would add some strategy and that teams might play it in different ways, which is interesting. More strategy is good but again, I think I would be against it just because. I don't know it would seem sort of arbitrary or just to have you know all of a sudden here's the automatic runner rule. It's only one inning I guess, just my reservations about it in general would apply to it in this case too, and it would add sort of an element of randomness surge or something to the game that again might add some strategy and may make it more entertaining, which is what we've been talking about this whole time with this role. But to me I think it's sort of upsets competitive integrity in some way. Yeah I don't necessarily see a solution that it is solving or a purpose for it's being there. If if they played baseball this way for one hundred years than we would definitely have internalized it and be happy with it, and if you recommend taking it away, people would say, how can you take it away? It's great part of the game but a change, it is not one that I see a great need for and it feels a little weird. Okay this is a question from one, Sam? Miller who submitted any mail for the show and said the other day a team was up five to one and the broadcaster said they were looking for a big insurance run and then in a different game at was up to one and the broadcaster said they were looking for a big insurance run does any run by any team with a lead count as an insurance run or does the lead have to be within a certain range? What about to qualify as a big insurance run? Could. Question Yeah. I think technically any run by any team with the lead counters and insurance, right? Okay. So I thought that we might say that but. Really. Like the giants, the other day were up twenty to to yeah and then they scored three more runs you would consider those insurance runs. Because, what the point of insurance is that you are at risk well, okay. If something bad happens to you, you're not going to be able to handle the cost of that bad thing happening. So someone's going to take a little bit of your money to give you protection now. If at a certain point, the thing that they're insuring you against is so unlikely. So to so as to be unrealistic, then it's not really insurance anymore it's conway like if I give you if I give you for Instance Dragon, insurance and I and I say if a Dragon Burns down your house tonight then I will I will rebuild your house and all you have to do is make you know monthly payments of eight dollars to me. You wouldn't consider that dragon insurance you consider it my dragon scam. Yeah. So I think that in a K. I think at a certain point you're ensuring what are you ensuring against your insuring against an eighteen run comeback in the ninth and also if you give up eighteen runs in the ninth, your probably giving up nineteen like whereas like it if you just map out the scenarios of what could happen in the bottom of the ninth inning, there's a lot of scenarios where you give one run but not too, and there's a lot of scenarios maybe where you give up two runs but not three and fewer the more. The higher up you go the less likely it is that you're going to give up you know three on the dot four on the dot five on the dot six hundred it's extremely unlikely that you're gonNa up eighteen on the dot. You might like there's a about a one in ten billion chance that you give up eighteen on the dot but very, very, very slim like the odds are if you've given up eighteen, then you know well, you're probably not giving up eighteen and if you do, there's a pretty good chance you're giving up nineteen anyway. Because you are in freefall whereas, I think that's quite the case with a one run lead where the market is quite slim. I don't think anyone's GonNa say in twenty two to game unless they're joking. So that's kind of a an academic discussion which I guess is the kind of discussion we often half year but I think it's not technically incorrect like if someone says that's an insurance run I I wouldn't save. No, it's not. It does I mean you know maybe to an infinitesimal degree it does make you more likely to win or less likely to give up a lead that you have. So okay but obviously, there's a a threshold. The benefit is so low because you're so close to being assured of winning already that you just wouldn't say insurance run unless it was ironically, and so I guess the question is, where is that threshold and? Stop saying big insurance run and. I think five one might even be see the thing about five one I guess is that you are still a grand slam away from Taika right so I guess in that sense that you could conceivably lose the lead with one swing maybe you could still make the case that it's still. Within the realm of reasonable to say insurance run at that point. But that's probably even bigger margin than I would say it I think I would be most comfortable saying it within Gosh I don't know if I would say with more than a two run lead like after that, it's just I don't know it's just tacking on it's just it's lead it's just a bigger lead I don't know that I would use the term insurance run unless. Close Yeah Yeah it almost has to be big for me. So you're saying that not only would you not use big insurance run for five one, but you probably wouldn't say insurance on you'd say just adding on. Yeah. Yeah unless lengthening early, I just use some other words so. I think it would be like. A one or two run margin for me to say it, and I might not even say big because for me it's almost implied that when you're saying it, it's big. Say that a big insurance run has to be one or two probably but I would feel better if it were one because one, you really you guarantee that the tying run is up the entire next inning to you. You don't guarantee that. So you can make a mistake and it doesn't matter how big a mistake it is. You make a mistake next inning and still have the lead if you're up by two that's not true if you're up by one to me, that's a significant difference insurance in a lot of cases in real life is for one mistake like. Your house doesn't burn down twice. It. Burns down. Once. You get in a car crash like like once that's what the insurance is for your thinking. I'm not going to get in a ton of car crashes but I might have one bad day and make one bad car crash. So the insurance run protects you against the one mistake and so I think I I think I would try to hold it to just that one for big insurance. I. Would try to hold it just that one run lead. But if you have say the top of the order coming up the next inning, maybe I would I would stretch to two run lead if you're really nervous if in Colorado that sort of thing. Now, that's for big insurance I think that insurance. Run can go if it takes it out of a safe situation if you don't have to use your closer or if you're closer is gonNA come in with a non save situation to me that it is a kind of an arbitrary and misleading line, and yet it's one that we all recognize where the difference between a Foreign Lena three run lead is enough that we have different statistical language for it. So I would say that if you have a three run lead and you make it a foreign leader that would qualify as an insurance run, but not a big insurance run. You can now put your reliever. You're reliever back on on on his on his bottom and bringing a different reliever. Okay. Do you have a stat blast. It's dumb. Yes. Okay. Well, here's the step last song cover of the week by Michael Temple. It's an instrumental version which has been one of your favorites so far. Who? Des. Just. Curious Ben Tom seaver retired with one hundred and six war with three hundred eleven wins. If you knew someone was going back in time machine to change the officiant schedule to make sure that he would be a brave. And so he's going to be a brave. Now he's not going to be met everything else in the world up to that point is the same. What would you say is his median war expectation And you know it's Tom Seaver you still know that it's like you know that it's all the same ligaments and brain cells. Yeah. But he's now playing in a different universe, a different scenario, different team, different player development but also just different rolls of the dice yeah Gosh I I. Guess I would say that when you have a that great you have probably ended up with an upper percentile outcome for what your career could have been. You know maybe he would have been even better somewhere else but odds are that if you changed anything, he probably would have been worse if anything so I guess I would say that maybe it would be like Eighty or something like I still think he'd be great obviously. But who knows you know he's pitching in a a different game he's hit by a comebacker or you know he he gets overworked and he hurts his armor. Who knows you know he's in a different place at a different time. He suffers some off the field accidents or something. These are all like involving injuries, but it doesn't have to be an injury. It could just be a developmental thing. Yeah. I would go as low as maybe thirty five. well, yeah I don't think I'd go that low because it's not like he was a project is pretty great from the Gecko like cues college pitcher than he had one quite good season in triple a in nineteen, sixty six, and then he was rookie of the year with the mets in nineteen, sixty seven. So I sorta suspect that if he were that Greek right away, probably would have been great right away wherever he went but I don't know if this is the case but I think the fact that he ended up with the mets maybe made him more special in the sense that he transcended his stats in a way because. He was so significant to an expansion franchise that had been pretty bad up until that point, he made them respectable. He was the you know the face of that franchise he won that nineteen sixty, nine world series. He meant so much to many mets fans in Yorkers at the time. So if you transplanted to another team or teams and he is just as good as he was with the mets, probably things don't shake out in quite that way and maybe you'd remember him as an all time. Great. But without some of the emotional resonance that he has for for fence of the mets. All right. So here's my bad stat blast has had. Tom seaver I heard a baseball anecdote the other day about a manly who was one of the co-owners with his wife EPA of the Newark. Eagles in the Negro National Leagues and the story goes that he was watching one of his hitters. Foul off a bunch of pitches fighting to stay alive and it back and. He sees everyone of these foul balls, go into the sands and he knows that like he's paying for those foul balls and so he sends a message down to the manager that that batter needs either strike out or put the ball in play that he's got a quick fouling the ball off or he's going to start getting fined. For every foul ball, I don't know if that story happened but I would say that other than the modern American. And National Leagues of the last twenty, five years every other baseball team and league throughout history has had some concern about the expense of baseball's the expense that frequent use of baseball's adds up to and so like our friend. Theo at the stompers they had a a they. They would. He was obsessed with how many baseballs they were using, and so there was a thing where a foul ball went out of play A. Fan could bring it back and exchange it for like a like a box of milk duds or something the because a box of milk duds costs the Oh like two bucks, but the baseball cost him four fifty. So he was always trying to get those balls in play and various. I think a lot of actually a Lotta Minor Leagues Actually Mine Teams do that today as well our pal. Dan Evans. One time told me that I should the article he wanted me to write was figuring out when first baseman started tossing the ball into. The. Stands on their way back from the last out of the inning because he remembered earlier in his career that you never did that you would a first baseman would never be giving away a baseball team needed those baseballs. They didn't want WanNa go to that extent and the other day I think it was Tony Gwynn I saw in an old article was saying that coming out of the strike that had changed I think that that's what you can trace that back to. So I think post strike when teams really saw getting a lot. Of Baseball's into the stands as being away of doing fan outreach I think before that, even the major leagues was a little bit protective of their baseball supply, and so anyway, that is just all to say that whenever a batter fells of all off, it costs team a little money and a about that a lot of balls off cost his team more money. So I want to see how big the Rangers how much an expensive player costs his team in foul balls and who is the most expensive hitter in baseball on foul balls alone. So I took last year's hitters I took their number of foul balls, hit and their number of home runs hit to see who who put the most balls out of play, and then also to see who had the highest rate of balls put out of play, and so the answer is first of all that Freddy Freeman cost his team, the most money in baseball's Freddy Freeman. Input at least six, hundred, fifty, one balls play between his foul balls in his home runs. No. I am not counting various other balls, put out play that batter might be responsible for. So a batter that has long at bats, for instance, is probably more likely to just by making the pitcher throw more pitches they're also GonNa may be more pitches in the dirt pitch in. The dirt has to go out to play a batter who hits more ground balls is more likely. I think to put balls out of play because if a ball hits the infield than it also goes out of play I, think a batter who I if I'm not mistaken a batter who makes more third outs as a proportion of his outs would put more balls out of. Play because usually the ball disappears after the end of an inning. So those are all things that a hitter might also be responsible for but I don't think that the team executives would blame the hitters for those quite much as they would for the balls that are directly out of place. So Freddy Freeman six, hundred and fifty balls put out of play last year that's six hundred. Thirteen fouls thirty eight homers sorry six, hundred, fifty, one total. So he is the foul balling is home run. Hitter in baseball hand by my math or I should say by Theo's math that would cost the team two, thousand, nine, hundred, and thirty dollars. Probably just release them that point. It's. It's an expense. Okay. It's a real expense if you were to look at rate because not everybody has many bats Freddy Freeman than the highest ball out of play hitter in baseball. Was Jeff McNeil Twenty, eight percent of the pitches that Jeff McNeil saw ended up being replaced because they were either fouled off or hit for home runs just a lot like almost feel like I should redo that seems like a ton twenty, eight percent how much they say I said twenty eight percent, right? Yeah Twenty eight percent. So average Jeff McNeill had back produces a souvenir which is considerable. Compare that to the low end of the list. The bottom of the list is Derek Fisher who only put eleven percent of balls out of play eleven percent compared to twenty eight percent. First of all, that's a lot right like over the course of a Game Jeff McNeil puts three more balls out of play than Derek. Fisher over the course of four plate appearances. That's three more balls that Jeff Fisher are that Jeff. I've gotten my name's. Jeff? McNeil. Steph McNeil cost three more baseball than Derek Fisher. Costs. There's nothing else in baseball I don't think where the spread from the top of the leaderboard to the bottom of leaderboard is that extreme? That's three baseball's that he's. Four Times Baseball's. It can't be my math has to be rolling. They're going to be four times the baseball's. Times the rate is it. It's only three times the rate. Oh, it's not four times. Baseball's it's it's three times the baseball but four and a half baseball's compared to one and a half baseball's that Jeff macneil uses. So over the course of the season that means that Jeff McNeil costs his team two, thousand, four, hundred and thirty dollars more than Derek Fisher would cost if they played every day two, thousand and four, hundred, thirty dollars, it doesn't seem like that much but to theo. A lot for. Theo yeah. It's probably a lot for the Wilpon to. Their dead, right. So anyway, so I guess to answer that question, there's a pretty big difference between the the the worst offenders in the rest but the cost actually is is not that much unless you're working on a a fairly small profit margin which most baseball teams throughout history have been but most current, American and National League teams are not all right. Well, Jeff McNeil gets traded. Now you'll know it's because the will come. To this, and they realize how much he was costing them in foul balls. Aright. A quick one this is from Dj. Sort of a step plastic question Cameron Maven was traded by the Tigers to the cubs this week for Zach Short, this would be a trade that wouldn't normally receive much notice for me in this case was alerted to the fact that this is the third time that may have been has been traded away from the Tigers previously had been reacquired by the Tigers in November two, thousand fifteen and traded way to the angels a year. Later, most notably as a prospect, he was a major piece of the twenty seven trade that brought Cabrera to Detroit and know that many players get treated numerous times over the course of their career especially someone with me bins. Profile a guy with the talent to be helpful but never quite good enough to become a piece for a team to build around still having one team, acquire a player three different times, draft trade free agency, and trade them away. Each time seems quite unusual. Is this the case has there a player traded away by the same team more often than may been if not are there other notable examples of player being traded multiple times by one club does this happen more often than I expect and it does not happen often I got a list here from dinner shift baseball reference. So there have been a handful of other players who have been traded three times so it is maybe and pinkie. Bucker. SAAG. Rich Hinton Ed Levy Dick Scofield and Cardinal. However, there have been four players if you include purchases, which is basically just a trade but for money instead of another player than there are two. Who have been traded or sent away for cash by one team four times one of them is Bobo newsom who played for decades and decades like from the twenty s to the fifties. So he had a lot of time for this to happen and the Saint Louis Browns kept requiring him and getting rid of him again and again but do Carmel who I mentioned he. was traded three times by the cardinals, but he was dealt four times because he was also sent away via purchase one time and I think he takes the cake here because do Carmel only played four years in the major leagues, he only got eighty one plate appearances in the majors for the cardinals who kept requiring him and traded him away and I think that's because. He had the misfortune of being left handed outfielder first baseman at the same time as Stan musial as Dan Hurst, point it out. So you know as we were talking about circumstances of a team in a time, can really dictate a player's career and that was probably the case for Carmel. So Do caramels transactions log on baseball reference goes before the nineteen fifty, five season. He was signed by the cardinals as an amateur free agent nineteen sixty he was traded by the cardinals to the dodgers a couple months later, September nineteen sixty purchased by the cardinals from the dodgers. Then may of the next year nineteen, sixty, one traded by the cardinals to the dodgers. Again, he was like the the Oliver Drake of his day before the nineteen, sixty, two season. Sent him back to the cardinals in an unknown transaction. And then in March of that year nine, hundred, sixty, two, he was purchased by Cleveland from the cardinals before the sixty three season he was sent by Cleveland to the cardinals in again and unknown transaction, and then July of nineteen sixty three, the cardinals having gotten him back after that traded him to the mets for Jackie, Davis and cash, and then finally in nineteen. Sixty. Four he was drafted by the Yankees from the mets in the rule five draft and that was the end of his career. He played briefly for the Yankees in nineteen sixty five and he was never in the big leagues again. So cardinals really had a thing for to Carmel, but not enough to keep him very long at all what do you think is going through their? Heads when they're making when he's making his decision to join the cardinals for the fourth time and when they're making decision to acquire him for the fourth time because you're right that it doesn't make much sense for him to be on the cardinals. So they keep trading him but it takes more effort to reacquire him than it does to trade him in. You would think that. You would be doing some of that calculus when you're doing it and then you would think by the fourth time he'd be like four times shame on me as well. So I wonder if it like he just lived there in Saint Louis and and it was this was his home base and when he needed to Kinda reset, he would just WanNa go back to Saint. Louis. Because he he's a New Yorker and after his career, he went back to New York according to the Bullpen became a salesman for a liquor distributor and is still with us and still a New Yorker I believe so. I don't know maybe we should talk to Carmel quite a career. I, think the cardinals were interested in him though because he was sort of a minor league, slugger nineteen, fifty seven, he led the Pioneer League with twenty nine homers and in a thousand plus O. P. S. Nineteen, fifty nine in the minors for the cardinals he hit twenty three homers with nine hundred plus O. P. S. nineteen sixty, four AAA with the mets thirty, five homers with nine seventy seven Oh pious say he was kind of a quadruple A. Guy or maybe just sort of blocked and really get enough playing time to show whether he could translate it to the majors not. Yeah I guess I was so heated I mean I I feel like it's sort of silly because of course, he wasn't making the decision to go by this was nineteen, sixty, five, there was it's not like signing as free agent he was being traded back there. So it doesn't matter whether he had been fooled four times he did not have the. Right employer rights that players would come to have later. So forget that I said that but still interesting that the cardinals would keep going back to that particular Carmel well. Maybe, they were they getting did every time they traded him they maybe they were just I I've told this story before but one of my friends I might have told this story I don't remember if I told the story totally honestly the first time but one of my friends had a John. Nineteen ninety leaf that had a crease right down the middle of it, and he would trade his whole thing as a kid like basically his job, his income as a child was to trade that John All root for something good and then like a great. Trade by the way you know, I'm glad that you didn't mind the crease and then the person would see the crease because you couldn't see the crease. It was really hard to see the crease unless it was at the perfect angle and then the person would get all mad and he'd go. Well, I mean I'll trade you back something else for it. So then he would trade less. So he just kept on basically trading the donal rudely for value and then trading for it for the discount and doing that over and over and over and over again. So I wonder if something like that was, let's see. So Joe Cop John Glenn Got John Clinton. Pretty good. And Check Jack With an e Davis. These are particularly story baseball players that I know of. Let's say John John Glenn Played Thirty two games for the cardinals after they acquired him. Joe Cop K. O. P. P. E. HE played no games for the cardinals after they acquired him Shack Davis played no games for the cardinals after acquired him. So they were trading them for they traded him they traded and three times. Four if you count the unknown transaction, whichever it was, they traded him three times for a grand total of thirty one plate appearances from the other players that they hired. And he barely got more than that himself for them so. Yeah, that is a a singular career I. Think I found a blog post about him here that mentions that when he briefly played with the mets in nineteen, sixty, three Duke Snider was on that team. So it was a double Duke Lineup and also you mentioned in Balfour. So quoting here, he went to spring training with the bombers in nineteen, sixty five amid much fanfare in. Paul Fort Jim Belton Sardonically notes that he was supposed to be the next Joe Damasio cording about and he struggled in camp and Whitey Ford consoled him by suggesting that he just couldn't hit in south Florida. When he continued to play poorly in Tampa weighty amended his remarks you're just not Florida. Hitter of course Duke then faltered in a few more games further north prompting the Great Yankees Pitcher to say it looks like you just can't hit south of the Mason Dixon Line. But he didn't end up hitting New York either. All right. Can I give you a a quiz too end on here I've prepared a little quiz for you. Okay. If you'll play along this is prompted by a question from Nathaniel and he says so phillips vowed as just through twelve changeups in a row. Dennis. ECKERSLEY. Unheard of and even said, he'd never thrown anyone pitch twelve times in a row. Is this a record? If not what is the record for most of the same pitch in a row and is it smart fouled as got the better on a high fastball but was he lucky? So I have here courtesy of Lucas layers of baseball prospectus the most times consecutively that every pitch type has been thrown. Yea. In the pitch tracking, arison. So since two, thousand, eight. So I've got eight pitch types here. Oh, goodness changeup splitter curveball slider sinker cutter for seamer knuckle later. If, you're if you're willing I'd I'd be interested in you taking a stab at putting them in order The numbers. So I'm just guessing the numbers I'm not guessing who did it no day I don't expect you to guess that but yet. So we got four seem to seem splint change curve slider knuckleball. And what's the cutter? Did you get those cutter Okay Okay Yeah Okay so I'm putting them in order the loss of longest streak and let me give You a little. We're going to do a little production here. We're GONNA do some editing. I'M GONNA I'M GONNA disappear for a minute. Okay. Okay. Okay I'm ready. Okay and I will a few details here because they affected my guesses here these are limited to. Single appearances. So I think the I would have had cut her higher if I could have on multiple appearances in a row because I would have guessed that I could have gotten like a run of multiple Kenley Jansen or Mariano Rivera appearances. Then, if it's one outing and then also this is since two, thousand, eight I think if it were. If we could go back to say the eighties I would have put splitter higher than I do. But just because it's only in the past thirteen years, I, don't think that there are enough split-finger pitchers that I am that confident then there would be a ton. So I'm kind of on the fence about anyway. All right. So here I know this could've looked up across multiple outings but I I think it's more interesting this way right and because I think part of the entry that you're throwing the same pitch over and over again to the same on the same day, which you know that's daring to do that. Whereas if you're coming back on a different day, maybe it's different team entirely they haven't seen those previous pitches anyway. All right. So how am I? How are we doing this? Just I. Guess. Guess the the first longest streak that you think in Okay and how long you would guess it is all right. My first longest streak I have knuckleball at eighty nine pitches. Okay. You are corrected is indeed knuckleball, but it is one hundred, four pitches. So come on did you that's pretty good? No, it's. All right Dicky. Was the record holder on April eighteenth two, thousand, fifteen he threw a hundred four knuckleball said I'm just trying to see any through a hundred four pitches that day so he nothing but knuckleball. Okay. All right I get points. Okay. Now gets harder next I'M GONNA say to seamer at forty four. I don't know how to. Give away just tell me tell me what number two seamer is. Tell me what rank to seamer is okay and then how many? To seamer sinker is actually the fourth most common only and it's thirty nine. Okay. That was Derek Lowe in two thousand ten. Okay. So I was pretty close on the on the number but not on the rank okay. Yeah. Well, all right. My number three was four seamer which I had forty one of okay for seamer is next after knuckleball actually fifty six Daniel Cabrera in two, thousand, eight Daniel Cabrera just through a lot of fast balls didn't really work out that well for him I don't know if he didn't have good breaking baller or they just didn't tell them you should throw more breaking balls but he had a lot of outings. where he just through very very heavily fastballs. Okay. Next I have cut her but my number's going to be low I know that because I know it's ahead of two seamers. I have cutters twenty nine. Yeah. Okay. It is cutter. It is forty six by Lenny Dinardo in two thousand nine. Wow. Really have you noticed that a lot of these are in two thousand and two thousand nine do you think that it's early pitch affects the pitch classifications aren't as could be these are I should've said, these are based on the Pitch Info classifications. Harry Potter so they should be better than just the the standard automatic MLB once. It is possible. Of course that a a pitch could have been mis classified at at some point and I guess maybe it would. have been more common at that time maybe just when there was less of an emphasis on mixing pitches and throwing certain pitch types more often than they used to be thrown. All right. Now, we get to the the the moving stuff on number five curve ball twenty four. You nailed the number. EF, which I don't know if you do that. Yeah it's the. Nicole Nicolas's out of October twenty seventeen. But that is not the next pitch, right? Yeah. My goodness. Okay. So I had number six I had slider but I had I had it down to fifteen slider is twenty nine Brad Lidge Brad Lidge is pet nick. Check in two thousand. Twelve He really through a lot of. I would like to that me too, and then here we this is where I I am going to go. I'M GONNA go seven splitter with thirteen. It is splitter with Seventeen Edward Mujica two, thousand thirteen, and then I'm GonNa Change Up at twelve. Change up thirteen Houston Street in two thousand fifteen. So ECKERSLEY was right to be taken aback by this and he saw twelve changeups in a row that is one short of the highest number that we have on record here and Lucas and I guest before he ran the numbers and obviously you guessed to that change would be the shortest long streak which makes sense because a change. Like, you think you could get away with it for a while with a really fast hard pitch because you've got control of it and it's just hard to catch up to or the knuckleball obviously because it's random and unpredictable. But with the others like you know sliders and curves there had to hit the they bend a lot too. So you could in theory, get away with throwing more of them in a row whereas with changeups and splitters, which you're sort of similar like changeups on their own are not great change. The whole point of the change is that your changing speeds from the fastball, but it looks like something else and then it's Not, and it's not as unhittable on its own merits as a breaking ball would be. So you would figure that yeah. It'd be pretty hard to throw changeups thirteen times in a row because at that point, it's not even a change up really that's that's just the the baseline and everything else is that change up from that. So to do that anytime soon, row that's that's risky but Houston Street had a good one. All right. Now, I have a quick quiz for you in two thousand eleven one of the maybe like the second or third article I ever wrote for you was about how Bartolo Cologne was doing these long stretches of nothing. And he he has the record for like Maastricht stir does yeah. But also he was throwing light long stretches of just fastballs and then I wrote about how I was really looking forward to seeing all fast ball game and then that day that very day at Ran Justin masterson actually had a day that he only through one non fastball in an entire start just crushed all the other games that fastball heavy games that we looked at anyway. Do you remember the headline that you gave that are. You don't know unsurprised I. Okay. What was it footloose and fastball free? Pretty. Good I guess. Okay so we will. Okay that will do it for today. Thanks as always for listening. You can sport effectively wild unpatriotic by going to patriot dot com slash effectively wild. The following five listeners have already signed up and pledge some small of the amount and upkeep the podcast going it get themselves access to some perks enter stockman and wine Aqui KANTER. Myers is Cannella and Doug Graham. Thanks to while of you, you can join our facebook group at facebook dot com slash group sash effectively actively wild. You can rate review and subscribe to effectively wild on. spotify other podcasts platforms, please replenish our mailbag, keep your questions and comments for me and salmon neg coming the email at podcast dangerous dot com or the paycheck misting system. If you are a supporter thanks and Higgins for his editing assistance and we will be back with one more episode before the long weekend talk to you soon. then. You would you Stated Legacy. Toy? Birthdays functions. Thank you.

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