Lockdown, reopen, repeat
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Five million confirmed cases four states, hitting one day records nearly ten thousand positive tests in Florida almost two thousand new cases in Georgia in Arizona this weekend, almost one in ten testing positive, but the trump administration is still super excited about states reopening, we have made. A truly remarkable progress in moving our nation forward. We've all seen encouraging news as we open up, America, get more than three million jobs created in the last job report. And the president's top economic advisor Larry cudlow says the risk of more Cova deaths is just the cost of doing business. We're GONNA have hotspots. No question we have in now. You know Texas and parts of the South Carolina's Arizona. we'll just have to live with it, but local leaders are sounding the alarm. We're going to have to dial it back because of what we see with the data. and. We're going to have to dial it back. Because I wanNA, make sure. That if we have to help somebody that we can help somebody. Right now team reopen, everything seems to be winning Dylan. Scott has been covering the reopening for Vox Florida Texas Arizona in particular are the places that people are watching closely now because they have a number of worrying trends, it's not only that their raw number of cases are is increasing, but they're also seeing increased hospitalizations, and they're seeing an increase in the number of tests that are being conducted. That are coming back positive. Is that to say, this can't be explained away just by having an increase in testing exactly there is some truth to the idea that if you start conducting a lot more tests, you're gonNA find more cases especially with the disease like this where a lot of people experience milder, even no symptoms at all. What's concerning and what we're seeing in some of these states is when we're either maintaining the same level of testing or increasing testing and the level of positive tests coming back as increasing. That's what suggest to experts that the virus is actually spreading in the community and more people are catching it. Do, we know why this is happening. Can we peg this all the reopening in the last few weeks? So it's difficult to ignore that this started to happen, you know a month or so. After states started relaxing their stay at home, mortars, allowing businesses and restaurants and bars to reopen as any good scientist would tell you, correlation is not causation but I do think a consensus starting to form that as people are starting to resume daily life coming into contact with more people. This virus is finding a way to. To spread again and to some extent, this was expected. But what's concerning is when you start to see hospitals in in the Houston area most recently I saw over the weekend and some in California that are starting to reach you know their maximum capacity in terms of the patients that they're able to accommodate, and once we start to reach those levels where the health system is at risk of being overwhelmed. overwhelmed. That's when public health experts political leaders get worried. Is it possible that some of the mass protests we've seen over the last month. Have contributed to the surge to the data, so far is is inconclusive or an and seems to lean. No. I spoke last week with a researcher in Minnesota. Because it seemed to me anyway that Minneapolis would be one of the first places you might see any kind of. Of New surge as a result of protests since that's where the protests started, and she told me that there really hadn't been anything. Thus far the public health experts I've spoken with have said in terms of just the number of exposures in the level of exposure all this reopening activity people going back to bars and restaurants and businesses and the number of people who are going to be doing that far outweighs. Whatever number of people went to a protest for a day or two? That was outdoors when they might have been wearing masks. You know it's hard to draw. Equivalents between the to the level of exposure that were risking through reopening is much higher than what people wrist by going to the protests. Is this surge the same as earlier ones? Is it still mostly affecting older people? So it does seem like the virus is now spreading more among younger people as opposed to older people compared to some of the earlier waves of the virus. I've never seen anything that is so prodian, its ability to make people sick or not. There's no other infectious disease that goes from forty percent of the people have no symptoms to some having mild symptoms to some having severe, some requiring staying at home for weeks some going to the hospital, some getting intensive care some getting into baited some getting ventilated in some dying. There was a really interesting study that came out of Tennessee which is one of the states. People have been watching closely where they described their cova case mix, and basically what that means is, they looked at you know how many people had been infected, and as a result how many people you would expect to end up in the hospital based on what we know about this disease, and in the early weeks of the pandemic, the case mix clearly skewed sicker like more even more people were ending up in the hospital than we might have expected based on the raw number of infections, and what's happened over the last few weeks. Is that has flipped and now slightly fewer. Fewer people are actually ending up in the hospital than you might expect based on the case numbers, and that with that seems to indicate is that it's younger healthier people who are more resilient against the disease compared to the elderly. Are the ones getting sick? A lot of young people do end up in the hospital I know somebody or another reporter in DC. He had caught the coronavirus said it was the sickest he had ever been in life, and we're still learning a lot about the long term complications and the potential permanent damage that might be done to somebody who does recover from Kobe, but that doesn't mean they're necessarily going to be completely healthy at least right away. I think what we're missing in. This is something that we've never faced before. Is that a risk for you is not just isolated to you. Because if you get infected. You are part innocently or inadvertently of propagating dynamic process of A. And I talked to a Harvard professor a week or so ago, asking about this very question you know. Have we seen as infection start to pick up in the younger population? Are we seeing any corresponding spread to more vulnerable populations? And he sent me a trove of links of new outbreaks in nursing homes in Arizona and Florida and California and Tennessee and I think that is. An indication of how difficult it is to completely isolate the vulnerable populations, and once communities spread picks up. That also increases the risk that the virus is going to find its way to the people where it can do the most harm. You mentioned a place like Houston where the hospital system is close to being overwhelmed. Is Texas is Houston taking any measures? Any more serious measures now that the virus seems to be spreading so intensely? Yeah, I think a good indicator of the seriousness of the situation. Is that Texas governor? Greg Abbott has reimposed some restrictions that had previously been lifted I believe he closed all the bars. Again in Texas and come Monday, restaurants have to go from using seventy five percent to fifty percent capacity, and lastly outdoor gatherings of one hundred four more people must be approved by local government in Abbott, because all of this has to some degree become politicized, Abbott and his team were always pretty gung ho about reopening and believing that they could allow business to resume while containing the virus, and so I think the fact that even he has seen the need to reimpose some restrictions tells you. How worried people are about this spiraling out of control? Is it possible for a state to have a second shutdown at this point? Is that politically feasible? That's a great question, and I think the big unknown is whether a state. Would we willing to go all the way back into lockdown? Stay at home orders? Almost all businesses are closed clearly for right now. States are trying to mitigate these new spikes with some targeted restrictions closing bars. Maybe limiting restaurant capacity. Restoring bands on large gatherings are delaying the openings of places where there'd be large gatherings like California has delayed the opening of Disneyland, and so I think for now. Everybody wants to see what happens if we take some of these more targeted measures, are we able to start containing the virus? Keep our numbers and check keep some health system capacity to absorb new infections, knew hospitalizations and see how that goes. I think that's sort of the question that we're all wrestling with right now is can we manage the virus while maintaining some level of activity again or is the only way to keep this thing in check to have stay at home? Mortars closed restaurants the really strict social distancing that we saw in March April May. After the break. Why the lockdown reopen repeat cycle may just be beginning. I'm no. 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All you have to do is put in the offer code explained at checkout remember, that's ten dollars off a purchase of twenty dollars or more with the offer code explained download caviar on the APP store or Google play store and use offer code explained. Essential talks is a brand. New podcast brought to you by S A. Leading Global Hygiene and Health Company in conjunction with the podcast will release early twenty twenty pre pandemic survey which asks people. How worried are you about the following threats to public health where you live, if you're curious, the top three answers back then were the pollution of oceans, rivers, and drinking, water, government, corruption and climate change. Pandemic outbreaks fell all the way down to tenth. Tenth Place, but since then everything has changed due to Covid nineteen today, health and hygiene are now crucial parts of our everyday lives and the impact. Today's policy decisions this shift, and so much more will be discussed in essential talks, first episode, hygiene and Health in times of Corona listened to essential talks to hear more on how pandemic has changed perceptions and behaviors, regarding hygiene and health on spotify I tunes or wherever you get your podcasts. Dylan, we've been talking about the latest massive surgeon Kobe cases and most of these have been in states that didn't really get a surge the first time around, but California had that surge back in March I think Governor Newsom, even imposed the first statewide lockdown back then there's a mutuality and there's a recognition of our interdependence that requires of this moment that we direct a statewide order for people to stay at home. What happened? How did California dropped the ball? I think what's happening in. California is too large degree the same story as Florida and Texas. Let's call it. A calculated risk as the state began to reopen more businesses, state leaders expected cases to rise an hospitalizations tonight both are happening in leaders say they're concerned. Officials there have pointed to relaxing social distancing businesses reopening. They've sighted people. You know maybe not being as diligent about wearing their masks as they should be, but I don't think that there's any great mystery. I mean, it's a big state ton of people. A large, susceptible population, and it like most of these other places has started to ease up on some of its social distancing restrictions I don't necessarily think of it as there's anything unique to California's situation, other than it's sort of reliving something that other states are now going through for the first time, but it does indicate you know some of the risks of reopening and potentially portends some of the actions that will be necessary to contain some of these new outbreaks. What's going on in California as sort of warning from the future for other states like New, York New Jersey Massachusetts. These places that had a big surge is the first time around and kind of managed the spread, but are now reopened. Of confounding factors with all the stuff I was looking at this before we started talking and I think hieaux actually an interesting corollary to California because it's another place that was. Had some pretty sharp increases. In the early days. that caused them to take aggressive action governor Mike DeWine. Especially, among Republican, Governors was one of the first to impose a statewide stay at home order and the virus you know grew very slowly kind of plateaued through that that lockdown period, but now as they have started to reopen, they're starting to see the same kind of increase in new cases and hospitalizations, and I saw that governor dewine has been talking about taking actions very similar to what governor Newsom has done in terms of identifying particular cities or particular counties where the numbers look a little bit scary where we're seeing. Potential problem areas or problem areas we're GONNA work with the local officials, and in conjunction with them. Make decisions about what else needs to be done, so it seems like for the time being we are GonNa see if we can't. Have these really narrowly targeted interventions and hope that those are able to contain the virus. When you talk about targeted interventions I just think about what Ruth Bader Ginsburg said after a key part of the voting rights act was struck down. She said something like if you're out in the rain with an umbrella and your dry, you don't just say Oh. This umbrella clearly isn't doing anything. You keep the umbrella the at and I think that's what we're discovering right now. It was something that public health experts were at work cognizant of even before. To, stay at home is really were imposed. Was this there's this sort of paradox public health where if you're of intervention is really effective than it's going to seem like you over reacted because you know the worst never happened because the intervention you took, and so there became a lot of energy and pressure around reopening. Because obviously, there's been a lot of economic can even mental health pain from people being forced to quarantine, and why certainly understand that instinct? It does not comport with what we know about how disease outbreaks were, and now we're seeing that if you give the virus more vectors with which to transmit, it's going to take advantage of that, and now we're. We're seeing the. The consequences and those consequences could be felt by states that are reopening more slowly right as long as there are places in the United States where a virus this contagious is still spreading, that means that the whole of the United States is to some degree vulnerable unless we're willing willing to build walls between North and south. Carolina are between Ohio and Indiana, or what have you? There's no way as you say. to totally protect against the virus, finding its way back to some of these other places, and so as we see the virus continue find its way to new places. It is a reminder that we're all connected, and unless we're willing to take steps to protect not overly. But people. The virus is going to keep taking advantage of the opportunities that we give it a few months ago. I kept hearing that some experts were saying we're just GONNA have a series of outbreaks followed by lockdowns followed by. Followed by lockdowns and It seemed Kinda hard for me to believe that that would happen. If we have outbreaks, we should follow it by lockdown, and then we'll be fine. It's starting to see more likely to me, I mean. Does that seem like the most likely outcome in the end that we're just? GonNa have a series of outbreaks and lockdowns. Until we get vaccine, it does seem like this cycle of lockdown outbreak lockdown. is going to continue until there is some kind of permanent solution to covid nineteen whether a totally effective treatment or a vaccine. We're GONNA keep kind of turning the dial to try to figure out if there's some. Happy medium we can find where. Some amount of daily life is allowed to continue without the virus, spreading out of control and risking finding its way into nursing homes, or risking too many people getting hospitalized and the healthcare system, being overwhelmed but right now. What's I? Guess a little bit scary is we're in the middle of that process and we just don't know, and it may turn out that lockdowns really are the only way. To Keep Cova, nineteen contained, and that reality is frightening, and its own way given the level of economic pain that we've seen in just the sort of social toll that quarantine places on people so I'm good answers for you know fortunately because it's a it's an unprecedented situation and and the only thing we know for sure is that you know we're going to be living with this this virus and the necessary effect that has on on our society in our everyday lives for for quite a long time. One more time before you leave rise dot, com is an all in one system that makes online training easy to create enjoyable. The take and simple to manage rise makes training so finding. You're going to start watching training videos in your free time. You'll start posting about it on social media. You'll start proclaiming your love for it. On daily PODCASTS, you can create training from scratch. You can customize hundreds of prebuilt lessons, templates and sample courses to build training even faster. See why you'll love rise by starting a free thirty day trial at rise dot com slash today. No one would have ever thought an entrenched Jimmy entity like Hollywood can let someone come in and completely disrupt the content. I'm Ronnie Mola and I'm Peter. Kafka and we're the host of the new season of land of the giants. The NETFLIX's effect. We're exploring all things. Net flicks by talking to the people who started the company will get into their bruising battle with blockbuster was twenty times larger than us, which is not a good place to be okay, so in many years. why I feel like so randomly lucky to have survived. We'll look at the mistake. Mistake that could have ended the company. In hindsight, it was incredibly tone deaf, and it blew up in our faces s it should have and we'll talk about how Netflix took over our screens, and how they plan to win the war for our attention Linda. The giants, the Netflix effect from recode in the box media podcast network first episode drops June twenty third. Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts, spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.