TimeformUS Pacecast - Episode 27 - July 30, 2019


Hi everyone welcome to the July thirtieth tradition at the time formulas pace cast on David Aragon and I'll be join the justice second by my co host cousy on the podcast. We're going to take a look back at two massive speed figures earned at Saratoga last week <hes> one being <hes> a Sunday's Amsterdam which is won by chance lot in just a runaway performance and then on Saturday imperial hint when he said that six furlong track record in the Alpha Dream Vanderbilt those were just two of the stake races at Saratoga last week also discuss a couple of the travers perhaps most notably the Jim Dandy one by tax as well as the curling stakes which was run on Friday will travel out the del Mar discuss some of the grade one action that took place last weekend will also mentioned some impressive two year olds that raced around the country from the past weekend and we'll wrap up by discussing a new feature. He took time formulas past performances at the end of the show so craig. It's a pretty big week for you ready for that big Saratoga trip. I am as matter of fact soon as I'm done here. I'll be packing up in hidden heading east to join you so yes a definitely looking forward to that looking forward to talking about some of these two races we all this weekend yeah. It looks like a good week. There's a little bit of rain predicted tomorrow but you never know what. It's going to be up here but it looks like a pretty nice week after that <hes> with the Whitney stakes being the big race on Saturday but that's upcoming next week. We're going to take a look back at the racist from this past week and I think we'll begin with those two massive speed figures that I mentioned at the top of the show beginning getting with Sunday's Amsterdam which I think was the race that everyone is talking about now because it's the one that occurred most recently and sort of a race the performances that we saw on Saturday for everyone's minds minds for a brief moment because chance a lot I mean what was this. I can't recall Cedric three-year-old take this kind of step forward in a long time this horse course he's pretty special. He is I mean it was an amazing performance. I was actually watching this in my car. After I went to a movie I generally don't do a Lotta of course playing on Sundays but I am always sure to tune into the big race and I did make it a point to to watch this one and wow I mean not not sure what to say. <hes> just opened up on a bloom away with was unnecessarily asked through the lane. I'm not sure what that was all about but a to win by twelve well when a half and a six and a half furlong race against competition like this. Is this something you're not going to see very often. Sometimes we see inflated margins route outreaches where pace dynamics kind of set it up for a superior horse but that wasn't really the case here. He was just that much better than everyone yeah yeah. I watched this race from the grandstand. My father is visiting this past weekend. We were sitting together down about the about the eighth pole watching this race and you could see the horses coming around the far turn and he just opened up this insurmountable advantage. I mean it was a foregone conclusion that he was GonNa win at that point but he just kept opening up to the stretch and you look at the time for U._S.. Pace figure tiger line for this reason people are going to see that there's that blue color coded fraction for the second figure and I think that might be a little misleading disarm because people will say well how could forty three and four be a slow pace but what it really illustrates is not so much that he went slow for the second quarter it illustrates how fast he went at the end of the race because he was on pace as based on the half mile to get about a one twenty eight time from U._S.. Final figure if you'd kept up that pace but he actually quickened up relatively speaking through the final two and a half furlongs of this race to get a one thirty seven final time speed figure <hes> just an amazing performance I was walking around Saratoga at the track after that and it was starting to empty empty out because they ran this race ridiculously late on Sunday <hes> but the people just look dumbfounded <hes> you didn't know what to make of performance like this. He just ran and so fast. I do want to talk a little bit about the speed. Figure of drew was a little difficult to make and I know some people thought it would be a little bit higher than it was. Always you talk about that yeah. It's argue a few points. I saw the buyer team gave it a one twenty one or one yeah one twenty-one which would equate to about a one forty forty one on our figures <hes> we gave it a one thirty seven final time which is buyer figures our final time so I'm not going to quibble over four points we knock down a little bit because of the peace down the ones thirty three but it was a tough figure to make I kinda made it nights ovation because the the prior desert race race eight was just the little bit too slow to be believed in you couldn't possibly group that race in with the other sprints on the day it would just it would inflate all all the others unnaturally unless you thought those horses were just awful in heaven watched the race. I'm not buying that. They were some pretty decent horses in there. I'm not saying there any champions champions but the figure out I had to give them if I use the same variant for race eight as the other races would have been ridiculously low so maybe that held the figure back a little. I I do want to note the point you make about the boy. Fraction is a really good one. That's simply an algorithm that compares the final time figure to the piece figure and if the gap is a so so much at all highlighted in blue with it so much either way at all highlighted red looking at the chart you can see the two through five finishers all team from pretty far back anybody who within earshot of that piece I dropped off the map so it's not so much at the pace was slow as it obviously wasn't it was slow for the final time that chance at ran for the other horses not so much as obviously it was just too much for them as they all just fell out of the race I I know we're getting a little in the weeds to discuss figure in too much detail. I looked at the buyer I looked at your number. This is one where I don't really have a strong opinion either way. <hes> I think the question you really have to ask yourself as you take shots lot out of the race because chance lot basically was running into a different race from the rest of the horses and you just say to yourself well did nitrous and honest Mr really run better than they did what he stevens. Did they run a little bit worse. Art figure has running just a tiny bit worse. The buyer has running just a tiny bit better <hes> I think it's it's really really hard to say and it's <hes> I could go either way on this one and I think it's a good point you make about about race being a little bit problematic. <hes> it is a problematic. I took a look at it for a while or rather I should say problematic time compared to the rest of the day because it was a weird race a race that a horse that was not expected to run as well as she did <hes> <hes> looking at just got off the board and was very live and ran a race better than she had ever run before and the rest of the field they had formed that was kind of up and down on all over the place <hes> the second place finisher actually <hes> one of her past figures. I was one that I struggled with a long time for a long time just seeing it really made sense ends and I was looking back at it to kind of remind myself and if she actually rammed that number the second place Finisher Queen of everything her prior big figure on the same day that army mule ran his huge figure in the Carter order so it was kind of funny that these two figures were sort of connected in that way <hes> but no chance a lot he's he's something else and if he can run this race back in the Allen Jerkins I think we'll have to start calling him. The best sprinter in the country. We'll talk about divorce coming up next imperial hint who also ran a big figure on Saturday but chance lots performance was pretty special speaking about that vanderbilt imperial hint broke the track record and I know some people sometimes make a little bit too much about breaking breaking track records because it really does depend on the speed of the racetrack in the circumstances and sometimes track biases but this six furlong track record at Saratoga. I mean all of the top almost the top sprinters in the history of horse racing <hes> have run six furlongs at Saratoga and none of the front faster than one away spikes town untied at once this was Spanish riddles record going back to nineteen seventy two <hes>. I know I've been at Saratoga for a lot of A._G.. Vanderbilt's and some really top sprinters of running them come. I'm close. They've never surpassed it. I know the track was somewhat on the quick side on Saturday and Sunday but imperial performance was still pretty special it was he got Outta. One thirty six said time for U._S.. Speed figure one thirty nine on final time again knocked down just a little bit because of the slow pace and again that slows relative tipped the final time but this another jaw dropping performance is eastward says we're coming off earner. It was obvious he was going to win easy. He just looked like the old imperial hint the one we saw as a runner up in the Breeders Cup a couple years ago the one who's the one in I think it was the same race a a couple of years ago. Maybe it was the Vosper I can't remember now but where he just one with ridiculous disdain where he was your down for the final basically quarter-mile <hes> so yeah he's back to form after Dubai. No doubt I do think we gotta talk about the track on Saturday in the context of this race in how much help them them and how much did it hurt. Horses like Matola and forensic fire who kind of moved to the rail for some unknown reason but this just another really big effort Urda. I do like this one just a little bit more than chance a lot in the fact that he showed he can sit off the pace a little bit but again the all these has to be weighed in the track. I think the bias this was that strong on Saturday that just has to be part of the discussion imperial hinges such an easy horse to root for because you see them in person. He's just this tiny little L. thing. He doesn't look like he stacks up from a physical standpoint against the other horses in the race and coming through the stretch you could just see his little legs. We're moving so much faster than everybody else's because he's got to to maintain that speed and he's just a really likable horse and while he had never run a speed figure quite up to this level before he had put forth some really nice performances in the ask you mentioned his vosper last year he arguably could have run a much faster final time that the ended up doing and it's just great to see him get back had hinted in Dubai that he might be on the right. I track again but you never trust those words coming back from Dubai especially with layoffs <hes> but <hes> this one came back and did well as you mentioned the track while while it helped imperial hint don't allow them to run faster what it did was it really compromised his main foes forensic fire who you mentioned especially Mottola who it was really compromised by his draw in this race because you kind of knew that mottola would have to overcome some adversity going in a given the way the track was playing because you could see from early on the day that we still had that dead rail situation. That was something that you really just couldn't miss on Fridays Card Fridays card which we'll get to in a second was one of the worst ed rails that I think I've ever seen Saratoga and Matali. They had to write him aggressively. I don't think it would have been a good strategy to take back trying to get off the rail. <hes> he just played the hand that was dealt Elton and he couldn't do much about it. I don't think it's totally surprising imperial hint showed up and beat Natoli who also showed up and ran fine in this race. He got a one twenty seven a time formula speed vicar which has nothing to sneeze at. It's just there was no way he was going to be an imperial. Hint under these circumstances yeah totally agree with that and you know one wanting to keep in mind you made a good point about the figure not being inflated because it didn't make him run any faster and while we do look at all the horses in a situation like this the figures figures are largely based on horses run their their best races which imperial hinted were were not gonNa look at Matola and assume that he ran his best races which is is in the low to mid thirties and base effect varian on that. They're just another figure making thing there that as you say it didn't really help him run and faster but it probably heard a couple of the others yeah we'll move onto the other stakes race <hes> the sandwiched between the two on Saturday the turf stakes the bowling green going a mile and three eighths for the older horses and kind of frustrating rates to watch unless you've got the winner channel Cat. It was a big price in this race because it seemed like they were few possible speeds feeds on paper including horses like Cacho and are gone who seemed like he was in the race to be the speed for whatever reason neither of those horses went and Lewis. I think accents what was happening from his outside post position had a plan in just sent channel Cat to the front and made all the running through pretty moderate I'm definitely going to be making a Lotta trip notes for this one yet. The disappointment in the race I think was channel maker who was a little bit wide around both turns but that's a trip that he can deal a wet. He was up close to that place and he didn't really have the energy to finish it off. The Way Channel Cat did <hes> so he was sort of the disappointment. I don't know what the excuse was for him other than the wide trip trip the horses I think we're compromised by not getting clear runs are Clo- who got clear in the last eighth of a mile but he's a horse that needs to wind up a little bit he doesn't have the best turn Senate foot and he didn't get to do that having to wait behind horses at the top of the stretch and the horse that was really compromised to my chagrin was with savage joy. I love Sadler's joy and I I think he was really ready to go off the layoff here but I mean a horse like him. In a payslips race the last place you want to see him is just stuck on the rail behind a wall of horses and Hotter Casto they just really had nowhere to go until about the final sixteenth and even then he was trying to rally through a position on the rail where there was just not really a whole there and <hes> he's a horse that I think you can give a passport in this race and he'll be better for it when they come back for the store dancer that said I'm not sure that this is the strongest group of horses overall and I know we talked talked in the past about bricks and mortar being division later. I don't know if I'd be that afraid of bricks and mortar stretching out longer distances like this if you've got if he has to face these horses because they're okay but I'm not sure that they're really the kind of great types that used to in this division. No the winner got a one twenty six which is a weak grade. One more like a great do type figure and I really think that's what we're looking at like you said maybe with some trips I totally with you on sidewards joy actually bet them in here and and you know kind of pulling my hair out at the trip but no no blaming the jockey there which is sometimes you just get unfortunate circumstances. I don't think there was a whole could do in this equation but I agree with you. Bricks and mortar still lead the division I I wouldn't have any problem better against these forces at eleven furlongs. I assume he's GONNA show up in the Arlington. Only two million have been tracking it but at some point I imagine they're going to want to try him longer. G. As we get to the Breeders Cup either go a mile or a mile and a half. There's nothing in between we so I'm looking forward to see from him. Yeah with him. I think either they run the Breeders Cup. Go the Breeders Cup turf the mile and a half or they just skip it and do something else i. I'm not really sure I see him going into Breeders Cup Mile but that's Chad Brown's decision so we'll see what ends up happening with him move onto a couple of travers. Perhaps that were run this past weekend at Saratoga the most notable one of course was the Jim Dandy which was on Saturday and some of the top players from the triple crown trail where we're back in this Jim Jim Dandy and a little bit upset as tax got the victory here another one of these races though that was definitely affected by the track bias and the horse that got the the most savvy ride. I think is the horse that won the race. Oh no doubt I love the ride by Rod Ortiz here. When I I watch that I thought maybe Kinda China snookered war well a little bit but as I watched a replay I think were a will was just to Kina and <unk>? The rider had no choice but the let him go. I'm not sure why he moved over to the inside. That was a little puzzling but tax got a good position off that bad rail. He looked like the tax that we saw back in February march and April roll not the one that we saw in the Derby and we did see signs of that in the Belmont where he ran a pretty good race but this was the good acts I know Danny Garg ahead been saying he expected the big effort that he was training like a new horse like the develop and and he really ran well him and Tacitus both got one twenty five time form U._S. speed figures. I will admit this. This was an easy speed figure to make it's possible. It's a few points too high at. I don't think it's too low by any means but it it was a good effort and I also think there's some trips in here from one like I said were a will was really coon in here <hes> global campaign. I have no idea what they we're thinking with them. I believe he was taken back off. The face and somebody actually twitter sent me a video where the trainer said that was the plan so oh you can shake your head and that's why why you'd WanNa take speed Orson Igam off of the I have no idea but acid. This is certainly the horse that I think most people would say ran the best race <hes> believe it or not. I actually think it has more to do with running on the the rail. The majority of the race in it does start. Obviously the start wasn't ideal but I you don't think it was as bad as people are making it out to be made that ground up really quick. He was right back with the pack a few strides after it so it's just such it's obvious trouble that I am not going to put as much stock in it. As give wary was positioned during the rates you could give an entire seminar trip handicapping just based on this one six six were raised because there was a lot going on in terms of the trips and the break just because you were mentioning that I think one of the reasons that it didn't hurt Tacitus as much as it might have is because they just went so slowly and that opening quarter mile and allowed to get back into the race quick more quickly than they otherwise might have been able to because there are a lot of games going on on on the front end. I do think Iran Ortiz who I mean whether he came to to this knowledge is on his own or whether they'd connections told him to ride this way who knows <hes> <hes> you clearly did not want to be on the rail and I do think he sort of laid a trap for Tyler Kathleen Board will buy buy store securing the lead men taking back which made war of will get keen and he ran outside of him and I agree with a bad move to go to the rail on Tyler appleans part after that <hes> but <hes> I read Ortiz definitely want to get outside and he got that position the the move to put tacitus on the rail from the back of the pack was pretty puzzling because he had any option at that outpoint when you're behind horses you can just on the outside not take dirt on her face and lose a little bit of ground but sit out in the best part of the racetrack and he did not take that path he it went down to the inside and got into some traffic trouble and was on the dead rail which is not really wanted to be. I mean tacitus on a fair racetrack. I have to think would've won this race multiple links. I don't think there's really any doubt about that. Nothing against tax taxes a good horse but I mean you gotta take into consideration how the track was playing and more of will is a horse that I think people are going to be really down. We'll after this race and he did not run nearly as badly as it seems he actually ran fine all things considered because he spent more time on that rail than anybody else <hes> going down there after two furlongs staying there for the entire race and you just couldn't do that and be successful on Friday or Saturday at Saratoga so these are horses he were and Tacitus but I would definitely give a pass to if they're showing up in the traverse again. It's going to be a really wide open travers because a lot of these horses since the triple crown running very similar speed figures years they've been taking some small steps forward and I think it's going to be a fundraise to handicap and we can move right onto the curling because I think we saw some forces on Friday and this <hes> listed listed stakes race that is that can be players in the travers as well potentially. They've got a little bit get a little bit faster but highest honors endorsed and especially looking at bikinis are all horses that I think are very interesting moving forward yeah. The KIRWIN didn't get as big a figure in deservedly so the winner got a one seventeen endorsed endorsed the one sixteen it wasn't expected to be as good a racist the Jim Dandy it never is but I thought we had some good in a good quality effort here once again like you said Friday I think the track was derail as we've ever seen and I think that played a huge part and looking at bikinis race. I'm willing just to put a line to do that one for him now whether that makes them a player in the travers or not is debatable. Kinda depends who shows up how much other speeds in there and you know the trek certainly helped the top two finishers but eastern enough efforts but if I wanted one outta here will probably be looking at Clooney's <hes> Rowayton hopefully their experiment lament with him going long as over. I don't think this one's any parts earn so looking forward to him. Cutting back sprints where I think he shows some promise I after what we saw some from MHM Sansonetti may not want to come back in the Allen Jerkins. Is that might be a futile effort but now decent race but I think it's what we expected. It was probably on the grade three level avoid a progressive agenda Andy which is great one great a racist Ami year with solid efforts yet looking at bikinis was all is a horse that I know the barn really thought highly of off his allowance when last time he was two for two coming into this caroline and he's one that I would definitely get a pass too when I really do you hope the Chad Brown considers running them in the travers because it is a wide open race and I love to cause any clear leader. You have to be afraid of in that race I mean maximum. Security is the division leader at this point but I think it's a tenuous lead at best and <hes> it's it's hard to quantify how detrimental the rail was in terms of <hes> seconds or lengths on Friday but all I know is watching the racist throughout the day and especially watching the headlines of the racist which I think is really informative courses that spend a significant amount of time either in that first PAP or even in the second path just one off the rail <hes>. We're just nowhere at the ends of these races. I mean some of them. Were even eased. I mean you just look at this race. I direct order was a long shot but direct order was the only other horse race on the rail and he didn't even finish the race. I mean he had to be eased after about a mile because you just could not continue galloping down on that rail position and for whatever reason I guess how your Castawano wasn't clued in or didn't know he had rental ridden a whole lot of races on Friday and he just sent him down there and it was a disaster I mean I don't think it's a stretch to say looking at bikinis would've won this race and would have won it easily. <hes> had he been outside read <hes>. I really don't think that's exaggerating at all and this is a good horse and maybe it's going to be too soon to run in the travers because he's only had three starts but <hes> he's a really talented two three rolled and nothing gets highest honors endorse tour are nice horses also and they are. They're also pretty lightly raced can move forward but looking at Bikini says one that I still be very high on out this race yeah totally agree and like. I said that this was not a reach as good as the gym the that's why I'd be very lukewarm about a year the op too if they show up in forever's. I'm not saying they shouldn't take shot. I mean why not you got a good three year old. What better reached the point too but I just don't think they're of that quality but looking at Bikini certainly gets an which use an inner this these are the kind of days we complain about them as handicappers but they really can offer the most value going forward? If you just make good notes stay in deepening their records and you know we're talking about the bias now but two months from now if you don't do your homework people are GonNa Forget they just look at the past performances NSA's lines. I intend to go off though so while it's not fun on those days when you bet horses out our own a bad rayle at certainly can provide some payoff going forward Gordon and I actually liked the strong by stays for <unk>. I totally agree with that. They're having some of these races back there. There are a lot of horses bet back in the future sure and I'm sure I'll be highlighting those in the weeks and months to come <hes> we'll discuss some of the other races that took place on Sarah at Saratoga last week briefly <hes> the promise was was run on Wednesday and it was a big upset as minutes to start him. Who I believe is the longest shot on the board? <hes> got to the front end somewhat surprising rising fashion over mischief and was just able to control this race on the lead. The fractions were not that fast compared to the final time and nobody could make up any ground in the stretch. I I know this horse hadn't really run quite fast in the past but she'd always been a decent sprinter and I think she just found the right circumstances in this promise is she was a horse on our a pace project. They're certainly look to have a shot. We didn't have much beaten here. We had our I think sit and second in the base projector in a rates that we thought would fever always eat and it just came down the mischief and it looked like to me. She's a horse who just is over the top by. She ran a huge race on on Derby weekend where she she popped it. I think it was on Derby Day itself. Got a nice one twenty five and then she came back and won again with a one eighteen but that was a really tough race where she go with the super fast of fifty for a long time before finally putting her away and she just looked like a horse that those two races had taken something out of her. I'm not a big bounce skies is i. I don't like to call it a balance. I think it's more reforms like oh you're on Derby Day and I think she might be on the downside and when you get that from from a heavy favourite favorite like this a kind of opens up the the race the other horses a champion ran a good race to be second. She was second in the Breeders Cup this. She's always going to become in late. I'm sure she'll appreciate seven furlongs a bit more than six but he's a horse who's never run particularly fast and in the end the one fourteen the winner got is it's just so so it's not really a great to figure even for Phillies of mayors and I'm not going to be too anxious about any of the horses back <unk> Outta this yet mischief <hes> I was a little disappointed in And for whatever reason they seemed intent on taking her back behind minute to start in this race. Ricardo Santana was not really asking her out of the gate and seemed to want to get into that pocket position behind the leader <hes>. I don't know why that was the plan. I never liked that speed horses when you're sort of half links the three quarters of a length back inside of another horse. I think that's always just a difficult place to be and it didn't work out for her. <hes> I guess unsurprisingly maybe she is telling off. I think that's valid. She certainly did not seem a sharp as she she did on Derby Day <hes> but performance to back to back in the rocks Alanna it wasn't bad she had a really difficult <hes> pace to deal with that race in held on well <hes> <hes> but <hes> we'll see if she can bounce back future. She's a horse that is really gritty when she gets in a dogfight. She tries really hard. She just seemed a little bit dull on this race and maybe that was due the tactics. Maybe she's not doing well. We'll see but I hope she can bounce back in the future because I I do think she's the best of this group <hes>. She just didn't show it in this race right now. I'm totally with you on that trip by the way there's no trip I hate more than being on the rail but not quite in front with another horse distant. Oh a half land or three quarters in in front of your horses hate that trip it and it certainly could have been the case here. We'll talk about some non stakes races that took place last week at Saratoga starting on Wednesday with an optional claiming race that was won by annals of time now annals time <hes> really taking you back at a time machine to remember when this world has really good got I think he won the two thousand sixteen <hes> Hollywood derby a grade one out there <hes> del Mar and it's taken a long time for Chad Brown to sort of get him back in the groove Movin. Get racing consistently again. He's a six year old now but based on this performance he could step right back up into graded stakes company. Perhaps grade one or grade two accompany the very competitive 'cause just from a visual standpoint I mean he laid over this field and he was really impressive. Come into the land he was. I mean he's clearly a grade. Read one horse when he's right. He got a one twenty three time formula speed figure for this race like you said there wasn't a whole lot of competition if he came back and form and he ran into it you want as easy as a good you know could have but you have to be weary of a six year-old that only has seven starts in our past performances are lots of red blinds for a off so this was a fairly all lay also so maybe Chad was able to figure something out with them and keep them going always hope for that. We need more horses the running these days are running and more offense so hopefully he's good but you know I'll just wait to see where he shows up and if he can stay together yeah chapter did say immediately only after the race that they're going to the store dancer next and based on the booby saw on the bowling green. I wouldn't be surprised at times after the favorite in the store dancer because he does have that potential to be that kind of horse and based on this performance. It's a logical next step. He's just gotTa stay sound as you were saying because that's always the concern with these older horses her so lightly raced but when he's right he's very good. <hes> we'll talk about two two year old maiden races that took place last week <hes> on Wednesday now there was a lot of weird bedding this week at Saratoga but perhaps the weirdest of all and there was. They got bet down a lot that I didn't expect that happens happened. Some time to time at Saratoga horses have good workouts and they might be live and sometimes you don't know until the day of the race but one of the most bizarre horses that I saw go up at odds was another miracle who want a Wednesday maiden race based on his excellent debut at Belmont courses like him usually two to five a three to five in their second star in Saratoga somehow he went off a two to one but he won like he probably should have been two to five yeah. That was a strange when I was watching that day that was a little shocked by this actually off the turf race. If I remember right and a Lotta horses scratch <unk> didn't appear to be much left in there and he was actually coming out of a race we talked about in this segment last time as being a strong race. I don't remember the name of the winner of Atma head but it wasn't any slouch racing racing in he ran a good second day with the ninety three speed figure he got a one or two for this effort. I won very easily and I actually think both the top two are are very good. Horses Irish Miss. I thought ran very well. Kinda broke bad. The pace wasn't all that quick and still made a big run late for a trainer. Ingraham motion doesn't usually have them cranked up. I I'm out so both of these newer ones. I WanNa see going forward. Yeah WanNa say the winner of another miracles IOS debut was a horse named green light go for Jimmy Jerkins who might be one of the favorites in the Saratoga special if he's still trading towards that race because he was very impressive that day and <hes> another miracle <unk> logical next step board in this race in one. I'm not going to be surprised if he ends up on from the future because he was entered for tour from this race and he's a son of American Erkin Pharaoh whose progeny do seem to be doing quite well on the tour of and he's got enough to pedigree on the damn side so I know that's the intention lupus horse surprisingly fast off the turf race often you see these off the turf races get lower speed figures than the schedule dirt races but the horses in this race really seemed to handle the dirt just fine and I agree with you about the second place Finisher Irish Mia's for Graham motion who <hes> His dad is actually a half sister to Irish war cry so he did have dirt pedigree and he did welded up for a second enclosing into a pretty moderate moderate pace after a bad start. Both of these seem like really nice horses on Saturday. We saw what looked like a loaded two year old maiden race but it didn't really turn out that way as shoplifted got off. The board is part of an entry he was the Steve asmussen trained have been todd pletcher trained runner did didn't run that well as his his stablemate late but <hes> shoplifted was on the best part of the Taraq because this was one of those bias days he was short of between horses into two path early and got out into the four or five paths in the stretch and once it got to the best part of the race track. I really thought shoplift shoplifted finished off the race really well he did he certainly ran well. He got a hundred times form in U._S.. Speed figure as you say. There was no doubt which half of the entry was being bad here. If you've followed Saratoga the last couple years as I think I mentioned on twitter twitter someday. We're GONNA see a thirty for thirty on whatever happened. The Todd Pletcher is I'm not really sure what what is going on with him but shoplifted brand very well like you said out in the middle with a track but he was clearly the best horse year. Everybody seems to know it is the worst wound up going off at three to five and I hope to see this one back. In one of the stakes races they have coming up at Saratoga. Yeah just a quick shout out to the runner up Kowalski who took a big step for debate Lucas second time out Peter brant owned runner. He was is on the rail for a good part of the race especially around the far. Turn is about the two pattern the stretch <hes> so he's a runner that was a little bit compromised by the track and one that probably will take another step forward next. I now possibly more distance so I think both of these top two finishers our good horses <hes> what's the Delmar to discuss them the races that took place near this past weekend <hes> there were a couple of grade one events <hes> beginning with the bing crosby which was run on Saturday and <hes> sister on horse that we've talked about a number of times on the podcast ask <hes> they got him back on going back to late winter and it's just really turned his career around <hes> you WanNa believe a great to race going all the way back to March and <hes> he think he was second the San Carlos in May and got his grade one victory here in the bing crosby seemed like there was a bunch of speed on paper but he was a little bit faster than the other the horses early and held them off late Yellen Tie Foam U._S.. This source almost look like a layover. Sometimes it works out that way now that said it didn't turn out to be a very good race for grade one. He only got a one seventeen time for U._S._B.. Figure I think part of that is the tepid base that he got away with a he did turn back from seven furlongs last time where where he was involved in a brutal Dole assist Ron. I'm talking about but you know to be honest. I wasn't blown runaway by this win. A desert wall was making up some ground late despite that slow pace and like I said over all that one seven figure is more in allowance type bigger than a great one so I'm a little iffy on this racer and where I stand I think system probably has a little more in the tank but this wasn't wasn't blown away at all and the rest of the field was disappointing. That's eight of yeah. I think the real disappointments were the horse ship Denver this race like I believe A.. Recruiting ready particularly who was the favorite in this race coming from the East Coast for Stanley off. He just didn't seem to have as usual early speed and was was really done a long way out so I think without him. Performing the race did get a lot easier at it made this drought task easier because he was the main base competition and it just didn't turn out that way a cool story nice horse one that was originally turf wars ends up being best on the dirt but I agree with you not really a typical grade one type of speed beat figure <hes> we did see more of that though agreed one type of number in the Clement Hirsch on Sunday as a really nice battle between all these Candian secret spice took place <hes> all his candy as a horse that had really been more of a turf runner throughout the majority of her career think this was just her second start on the dirt. She's now two for two on the dirt but she was really really game to battle back inside the secrets by slate yeah. I thought this was a really good effort. Always Candy is just say she won this summer oaks as a three year old with a nice one fourteen and then she moved turf inch Watchi- rent some good races. She seemed to get pigeonholed into being a turf force owes licensee or back on third in into back that up. We don't have the official figure yet. My partner does all the figures for California. He's actually out in Los Angeles and but he tells me it's going to be about a one twenty three and looking at the piece of the race. It's a <hes> the piece was pretty darn quick. I imagine most of the figures are going to be read read the pace figures <hes> so she told opened up and was game. I think she actually got passed a little bit by secret spice but I think both of the top two ran very well here and M._b.. Contenders in that division secrets by seems like one of these horses. That's just a true miler. It seems like once she gets that even that last sixteen going farther than a mile. It's just a little bit too much for her to handle. We saw that <unk> the Balaj Orion when she was second to she's Julie She just bay this big move off the farm. She was going to win easily and then she just couldn't quite carry it forward over the past the final furlong and kind of the same thing here. She looked like she was not one a five win the race at the Eighth Pole and all his candy got game and came back but secret spice just couldn't quite carry forward that momentum at the end of the race and it's difficult for a horse like her because most of these top races are at a mindless extent or a mile and a half of not sure she's the kind that they could turn back to seven furlongs and she just seems like she's a little in between distances. <hes> the big disappointment of the race of course was paradise woods who just is not the kind of horse that she suggested she might be three bad gor going all the way back to a three year old <unk> season. She's just so up and down and she's just all or nothing kind of horse I mean she she shows up with these big efforts one day just doesn't show up with them. The next day and most of the time she's just disappointment yet and I think this is at least twice in a row where she hasn't broke particularly well when she's a horse that needs to be rig right up owner near the lead runner best and to me. That's never a good sign. When an older horse starts having gait problems eight usually is the beginning of the end so these a horse had always gets? It's bad I I always try to beaters. Sometimes it works and for to be honest most times it works the rights for his. He's still being bad off at San Benito where she just Maoist yield in people keep open for a return to that but it just never really happened. One of my favorite courses in California is super the second winter campaign who is just one of these horses who wants to run all day. He's got no speed at all. He's going to drop way out of his races in the early going but I'd be they've got a ride in quite a bit to get into these races. He doesn't do it on his own but once he gets there he just sorta relentlessly grinds down these fields and <hes> this is just just his specialty kind of race. This mile race on the dirt and campaigns always going to be topping races at this distance yeah. He was a horse that I actually thought shoot a one. I think it was on Belmont Day when he shipped in L.. Mine just just had a rough trip. He looked to have this field over. A barrel wits in the post was the only really Orson his league. If he <unk> and to his credit he ran quite well campaign. If you watch system bedroom at three to five you had to have some anxious moments as with about three furlongs to go he looked done and dusted to me. I thought he was going to get but the jockey Barranco just kept jumping on him. Kept working didn't give up on him and he finally they kicked it in it and at the end he was really running. It wasn't just that he wore down at tired Eighteen at a mile and a quarter to a one in the Finnish though this is sue who looks like probably the further they go to better and unfortunately for him. We don't go much further otherness very often but he's a horse can just run all day at the beginning of the yard is wondering if he might be one of those horses they could improve enough to contest racist going like a mile and a quarter. I know we tried the Santa Anita Handicap. I believe although the pace of that race just didn't sit up for him at all <hes> but he probably is not really Breeders Cup classic kind awards they think that competition would be too tough for him but there are plenty of marathon races out there these days they are planning on the East Coast. I'm not sure if there are any more out in California I know run marathons stakes which used to be the Breeders Cup Marathon and I'm sure that's on the schedule for him but it does seem like he's a horse that needs at least a mile and behalf to put forth his best effort. Yeah no doubt we'll move onto the final race. We'll talk about for two actually two more races from del Mar the final <hes> allowance race <hes> were leading score made his return for Bob Baffert now. This is a horse who is a half brother Indian blessing. I think he's either a five five or six year old now and this was his first start since November. Twenty seventeen didn't really take any money you went off at nine to one in this race <hes> but he earned a pretty high time informed speed figure mostly due to the fact that he set a really fast pace he did. He's a horse set showed some potential but he's another one like you said he's six years old he he hasn't I've been able to make it to the track. Very often layoff lines had to do a double take. Oh we actually show the number of days in our past performances awesome for him. It was six hundred twenty five days so this is a good effort to get a one twenty-one eat figure in here at stakes level speed figures but we'll we'll see if he can stay on the track and see where he turns up next have a hard time getting too excited about older horses like this hopefully does put it together. He's in the hands hands a Bob Baffert who certainly knows what he's doing and has kept together before so it will be interesting to follow if he can stay sound. I know a lot of these projects auditing midnight lute or like these big black giants <hes> these dark bay giants they'd be they just look <hes> like bigger than the other horses around them. That's definitely the case with leading score and I would imagine it's Kinda hard to keep a horse like that sound too <hes> just carries that much size weight and <hes> that he's clearly awesome ability. I thought it was a little curious. They've started back at a mile that seems like a really demanding distance for a horse that had previously run his best speeds shorter <hes> and he might want don't do that in the future but if they could keep going kind of like annals time he's a horse that could be sticks level or graded stakes level. It just might be passed as prime. We'll see if they can do it but he's definitely needed time between races in the past and we'll speak with the bomb one more thing I wanted to say yeah. This is a horse that like I said earlier. I'm not a big bounce guide but if ever a horse is going to bounce off an effort this is where this coming off that long layoff and then getting in a hard fought race he's worried doled with another horse going really fast thoroughly though I would definitely be leery of the source at the windows if he came back with probably in the next four or five weeks yeah I I would agree with that. You kind of walk horses like this what having a little bit of time between starts and we'll see what happens <hes> but he definitely does have some ability in there somewhere are Bob African extract it <hes> sticking with Bob Baffert horses will wrap up del Mar from this past week with the first race on Sunday Bayden events that had some people buzzing thing as immediate impact a two year old filly. She's by into mischief <hes> the damn side. She's a half sister to arrogate so she's definitely whitebread to be a star and she looked like she might be one in this debut not sure what was behind her but she certainly with a lot of these she did it again. This it came from that Sunday. Don't have the official figure yet but but my assistant tells me the race will get about ninety three so nothing to were shattering on the figure front but I'm not answer that really matters in a race like this I she clearly had plenty left. Is I think she almost surely wants to go further though I don't even think that ninety the threes a bad thing it's I'm not going to be lining up to bet against her. If she shows up in the del Mar debutante the next out or a similar stakes raise so good the effort in an exciting one the foul yeah arrogant was known for that big reaching stride and well well. This doesn't seem to have the same size as him a she does have a nice stride honor a as far as I could tell making out from the replay and she was really finishing strongly and if you watch the Gal about she put about fifteen lengths between ourselves and the rest of the field so she was still galloping out strong after the race but probably no surprise that she does want to go farther based on pedigree and one to watch. We'll see if BOB BAFFERT has its many bullets to fire as he good last year at del Mar where he just seemed win every year old made it race in <hes> I guess he's getting off to the right start again but it seems like a potentially good one based on pedigree and we'll wrap up by sticking with the two year olds going to Ellis Park another race that had a lot of people buzzing was Saturday maiden win by Dennis's moment omen for Dale Romans <hes>. This is a horse that some people might remember was supposed to make his debut. I guess he did make his debut. At Churchill downs a couple of months ago and had <hes> just things didn't go right at the horse vetoed Raanan coming out of the gate and I think he actually lost the writer maybe a furlong out as they broke for the clubhouse turn and <hes> just a total disaster what you WanNa have happened while highly regarded horse but he got to run second time out and boy. Did he ever run yeah hi this is this is pretty amazing. He got one eighteen time for U._S.. Speed figure which I went and I searched all the way back the twenty fifteen and it was the fastest fastest two year old figure I've ever made through July so I checked through August. It was the fastest through that any whore to your own at ever run through August I didn't even even moved it to September in the only faster horse and that was just by day was Bolt Doro last year and I think it was the front runner at run that big big but somewhat more controversy or one twenty five time form U._S. speed figure that day so this this was a special effort in if you watch it it's this visibly unbelievable achievable. I mean who knows what he was against. He said a relatively moderate East but this is clearly a horse with some serious ability. I know they'll Romans. Romans at Brainer said he thinks it's the best horse he's ever had. The horse wind up going off four to five off a crazy eight to one morning line as a hype was out on a source. I everybody kind of knew about it but if you haven't watched it's race. It's worth going to watch because this looks like a season four year old to me more than a year old the away he raised in the way he finished all through the main almost had to do a double take to make sure that this was not a three year old horse Mitt breaking his maiden not a two year old because you don't see many horses going seven furlongs two year old and and finishing the way that he did I mean he ran the race like he really does want to run all day and you look at his pedigree and he's supposed I want to do that because he's by his now who who's getting up there in years as a sire but he's still cracking out some good ones from time to time in the Tis now's can definitely go longer distances in on the damn side sidewalls down hasn't produced anything except him yet <hes> the dams have two times mistress who was a multiple stakes winner between sprint distances going all the way out to a model as woolas most happy Fella who is a lot of people will follow New York racing remember. He was sort of a a mile and an eighth on the dirt specialist. I think he won a bunch of races doing that. At Saratoga <hes> not really up the stakes level but sort of at the allowance level <hes> definitely a stamina influence there so <hes> Dennis's moment is a horse that should be just fine going as far I they're gonNA races as a two year old based on this figure. He doesn't have to get any faster to be winning some grade one races pretty soon so <hes> it seems like Dell Romans has a very very special horse on his hands he does. I should mention that it was a one eighteen overall speed here but the final time was a one twenty four again knocked down a little bit because of the the figure he got to the half mile and how fast he finished off the race but like you said that one eight whether it's a one eighteen or one twenty four he's GonNa Tower over whoever shows shows up against next time it's a matter he can reproduce it and you know I want to mention it. I watched P._T._i.. Most as they do an over under if you had set the over under at point five on the number of times that we talk about L._S.. Park on this side of probably taking the under so clearly a special reach for Morris like it does have a talking about a maiden race for mallets. It's del Romans that brings us there because I didn't a couple of years ago. He debuted that were not this time. I want to say that was pathetic. Name <hes> who yeah it was so good and second to classic empire in the Breeders Cup juvenile before he was retired tired so <hes> del Romans does send some good ones to Ellis park once in a while but we're not accustomed to seeing it that often so funny that the good horse come from anywhere anywhere apparently that's the racing will discuss this week. Let's just wrap up the show by talking about a <hes> an addition to the time for me mess P._p.'s that you might notice in in the future. I don't think you're adding retroactively. I think you said but it's something we'll see going forward and <hes> that's a new code to what was previously termed a question mark eight years and you might remember going back years if it used the time for me recipe is maybe three years ago you sometimes we'd see a question mark next to the speed figure <hes> which would neom that it was a figure that we didn't have full confidence in or that was created under not circumstances that were not ideal and one that we want to monitor moving forward <hes> but it didn't give a whole lot of detail about why that determination was made <hes> and now we have some codes with letters next to the race rating in time from yes P P is that will allow you to see why a speed figure <hes> might not have our full confidence <hes> the one that you might see quite often is a be next to the rating which means that the race was broken out from the other races on the card because otherwise they would not have made sense in the context of the day and all you talk about a craig a new code is being added to that list the B you mentioned like racy at Saratoga on Sunday will be a perfect example. I'm almost sure I used it there disease. He is a pretty simple when it's one. I'm using where we don't have a S- figures for racists that actually had caulking stake in trustworthy hawking's but we're using it for setups that are basically new detracts where the running the distance they have run before like for example Worrell this year started running six and a half furlongs along again a distance they had run in many years probably at least a decade. They don't really have a baseline yet to make these figures. We're going to see get more often on turf where rails move around the lot runups change quite a bit and you don't WanNa make pace figures for example say at Gulfstream in May run a Mile Milo sixteen threes with Rayo at seventy two feet with a hundred foot run up and all of a sudden they start running with a two hundred foot run up so you really don't WanNa use the baseline from the other wind so sometimes there's just nothing to go on and I'd rather give no figures than give guesses or bad east figures than those spots ought so all disease telling you is it. It's either a new setup or one. That's very rarely run usually like at least n data points in my database Abass before route established a bee's fine upper preferably much more than that. I mean there's there's some tracks for example. You know six furlongs at a place like mount on the year. I might have thousands so you know it's just a way of saying hey this is a race where we just didn't have enough data to make figures yet. I think you might see sometimes the the lack of pace figures running line and think oh. Is that a mistake or or why is that the case and this will tell you that it's it's intentional to leave them out because there's just not the data Ada to have any confidence in what otherwise would be there under the circumstances so just a little something to to sort of the alleviate some confusion that might be there otherwise so it's all we have for this week Craig all you get on your flight and down your way to Saratoga looking forward to seeing you later this week and we'll aplenty to discuss when we do the podcast to get next week because it's a big week of racing coming up by the Whitney stakes on Saturday is the future about their other races on that card <hes> graded stakes events. There's also a continuation of the gets Neemrana I believe it's the Turf Trinity and the Turf Tiara at Dumb Ida Saratoga Saratoga Oaks on Friday and the Saratoga Derby on Sunday so some big cards at Saratoga next week. I'm will discuss the other venues as well <hes>

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