April 2, Hr 1 Dr Michael Busler, Professor of Finance at Stockton University
This is mornings with Kale. Fueled BY GREAT WESTERN PETROLEUM. Only thirteen ten. Kfi ON ERO. Got Town phase out man well as were all adjusting to normal. The numbers remain mornings. Okay L. Thirteen ten. Kfi A thirteen ten KFI K. A. Dot com live local ish. I'll explain later. Fueled by Great Western Petroleum. Yes we're all practicing social distance. I'm broadcasting this morning from my Home Office now. I am just a fine but just taking those precautionary measures. So how you holding up nine hundred ninety three five three thirteen ten eight seven seven three five three thirteen. Drop me a text at three one. Nine nine six you know. We're all trying to fill the time. Stay at home. Order has been extended in the State. No surprise there trying to fill the time and try not to go just a little bit. Stir crazy and any number of options. I mean. Good luck. Finding a jigsaw puzzle these days because well that's Kinda gone the way of toilet paper but talking with them. Thomas from snowmass village. Good Morning Thomas and Thomas had a great suggestion in terms of staying in touch with your friends and with your loved ones as well. Sure there's social media there's facetime Google hang I mean there's just all kinds of options Social Media Wise available to us but I thought he had a great suggestion. He said you know. Just write a letter. When is the last time that you wrote a letter well? Armoured Hallmark is making a little bit. Easier on you as hallmark is giving away two million free cards to help keep us all connected because well now more than ever. We all need to lean on our family and our support system our friends for much-needed supports and so in effort to make our lives just a little bit brighter. Aulmark is encouraging you to connect with loved ones near and for our with an unprecedented card giveaway. So this actually started. I believe a few days ago but until supplies run out anyone can visit hallmarks care enough website. Just fire up that Google Earth as we're all doing these days but you can visit their care enough website to sign up for a free pack of three cards which include cheer sayings like I believe in you and UNICORNS. Yeah that might get a little bit of a smirk right here here for you here for everything. Oh that's a nice sentiment and there's a surprising amount of love in this folded piece of paper. There are no additional requirements. All you have to do is type in your name and address and the cards will be shipped as soon as possible again. It's hallmarks care enough website. Well the rest is pretty much up to you. You can write well wishes to friends and family or you know depending on how close you are. And the extent of your friendship hadn't snarky be yourself because I think that's what's so important is in these times of uncertainty and anxiety and just as we're navigating the ground rules of what the new normal is we need to hang on to who we are and perhaps discover our best selves in the process. So you can write. Well wishes to your friends. Your family check in on older relatives. Maybe take this moment and turn it in to a teachable moment. For your kids this as. We're all homeschooling these days. Right about how impactful the small acts of kindness can actually be. You can fill cards with encouraging messages to seniors. And that was Thomas from snowmass villages. Suggestion is if you do have elderly. Neighbors practice safe social distancing but reach out to them might be alone. They might not have any relatives nearby. Reach out because it's going to make a real difference but what about those on the first line or the frontline? I should say why. Not Reach out to healthcare. Workers First Responders law enforcement teachers local businesses or any frontline worker that is working to make all of our lives so much safer healthier and happier now. Hallmark had temporarily closed a number of their stores. But they are doing what they can as. We all are to lift spirits through a very very uncertain time. It's a hallmark. A handwritten card is paper. Hug and really in that what we all need right about now so why not sign up now and spread the love Dan? All you have to do is go to that hallmark website. I think it's a great idea. It's their care enough website. You can sign up for that free. Pack Three Cards six twelve now thirteen ten KFI K. Thirteen ten K. F. A. dot com mornings. Okay all live local ish again practicing social distancing doing the show from home. I'm fine don't worry about it and I hope you are fine as well. All right. We got a lot on our plate to share with you this morning as concerns over. Kovic nineteen escalates. Well market turbulence continues. Not a good first day of the second quarter this as the Dow plunged nine hundred seventy three points yesterday after plummeting. Twenty three percent in the first quarter of the year. That was the worst quarter since one thousand nine hundred eighty seven so it begs the question. Is this so-called black? Is this a so-called Black Swan event is Cova Nineteen a Black Swan? Myklebust slur is a public policy analyst. He's an economics expert and a professor of finance at Stockton in University in New Jersey New Jersey very very hard hit by the covert nineteen outbreak. He'll join us this morning right around six thirty five then as we're trying to share the light and lift your spirits. Well Fort Collins. Nonprofit Crossroads Safe House is hosting. Its very first couch concert tonight. from six to eight PM since we can't go to the venue they're bringing performers to you now. This will not only support the community and raise funds for their mission at Road Safehouse To raise funds for Domestic violence but it also carries a very important message because these days staying at home isn't safe for everyone. Jacqueline Tyler is executive director of crossroads. Safehouse and she'll weigh in with all the details at seven. Oh five now. We touched on this yesterday. The fact that Any number of US have a multitude of questions about a Cornucopia of things particularly those stints. Stimulus checks this from that Two point two trillion dollar cares bill passed. But who's eligible for these checks and what about retirees well talent of HR block of really? Well help us sort through it all when he joins us at eight thirty five six fifteen now. Thirteen ten K. K. Thirteen Ten K. K. dot com this time check sponsored by caring hearts home healthcare serving northern Colorado since two thousand and one. We're patient here. Always comes first nine seven three seven eight four nine or caring hearts H H DOT COM. All sports story in northern Colorado state in the country tune into the whole show weekdays noon to two and thirteen ten KFI K. Better News for you on this your second date of April but the numbers are pretty grim relative to covert nineteen six twenty three now thirteen ten. Kfi Thirteen ten K. F. K. A. DOT COM. One is Gail live up local. Fueled by Great Western Petroleum. Yeah indeed Infections fatalities continue to escalate across the nation on Wednesday as a result of Kovic nineteen and spread with the number of confirmed cases rising above two hundred thousand the number of deaths surpassing five thousand. The fatalities for just yesterday alone topped one thousand and one day toll more than double that usually recorded for lung cancer and influenza combined this according to a piece out of USA Today now some researchers predicted US corona virus deaths could surpass two thousand per day by mid April exceeding daily deaths attributed to heart disease now amid the climbing numbers five more states to include Florida Georgia Mississippi Nevada and Pennsylvania. Well they added or expanded. Stay at home orders. Well let's stay at home order of course in Colorado expanded as well while Michigan proposed a seventy day extension of an emergency declaration that had been set to expire April seventh for example Brian. Kemp governor of Georgia said now is crunch time for us to lessen the peak to make the bullseye a smaller. And yes social distancing does indeed work and I know how different and how difficult it is because we're social animals. I mean we loved interact with each other right. But here's the thing you have to remember this novel Corona Virus. It's it's a parasite it needs a host and sadly well we're the ideal host so the more we can minimize contact with one another at least for the foreseeable future the better. Meanwhile back to Governor Georgia Brian Camp. He added that the next three weeks were critical for Georgia indeed. The next three weeks critical for the entire nation and that Residence at need to hunker down. You might have heard some rumors to the effect of that The president was considering a nationwide quarantine seemed to back away from that discussion. President trump has insisted that the states the states need to be free to determine for themselves which safety measures to implement and he went on to cite disparities and how states have been affected by the outbreak. Basically stating the obvious president trump told reporters on Wednesday this according to the Associated. Press that there are some states. That are quite different than others there. Some states that indeed don't have much of a problem now not even second place in New Jersey by the way looking forward to our conversation this morning with policy and economics expert professor of finance at Stockton University in New Jersey. Dr Michael Buster Get kind of a bird's eye view of what's going on in New Jersey but not even second-place New Jersey with more than twenty two thousand confirmed cases of the virus came close to approaching first place. New York which continued to lead the nation with nearly eighty four thousand cases New Jersey also trailed far behind New York in the number of deaths with three hundred fifty five compared to more than two twenty two hundred in the state of New York nonetheless. All fifty states grappling with a situation that members of the president's corona taskforce confirmed. This week would get far worse before it gets better with Deaths and we've talked about this at great extent. Deaths of one hundred thousand two numbers boggle the mind don't they one hundred thousand two hundred and forty thousand. Americans expected in the weeks ahead. Despite the varying intervention measures meanwhile closer to home county started April with more than three hundred positive cases of corona virus and adept. Count at a thirteen. This according to numbers released just last night from the county health department. Were Front piece out of the trip by Angelini. The Weld County Department of Health and Environment reported a total of three hundred thirty one cases cases reported by the county. Wednesday are an increase of thirty five over Tuesday and an additional two doubts. Colorado ranks fourteenth nationwide and numbers among states reporting this according to figures from the US Centers for Disease Control. Colorado's reported two thousand nine hundred and sixty six cases That that's the number of cases total in the state this according to the CDC As of Wednesday evening the CDC reported more than one hundred eighty six thousand cases nationwide again with more than three thousand deaths in weld county females continue to comprise a higher number of the total cases as of Wednesday. There were one hundred and eighty four women as opposed to one hundred and forty seven forty seven males who indeed had tested positive for Cova nineteen the fifty to fifty nine year old age group also continued see the highest number of cases according to county figures nearly seventy people in that age group are among the confirmed cases with over half of those being women while public health officials have warned. Older individuals are among the most susceptible to corona virus particularly those with underlying conditions in recent weeks. Well there's been stronger. Warnings much stronger warnings for younger people to be aware and to take proper precautions. Well County figures back up. Those claims individuals forty to forty nine years old and those thirty to thirty nine are the second and third highest age groups to contract This novel Virus Corona Virus countywide both with more than fifty cases and both surpassing older patients from ages. Sixty to ninety nine on the county chart so when scan standard ice prevails. Just stay calm? Wash your hands and we'll get through this causing it on six thirty now. Thirteen ten K F K A thirteen ten KFI K. A. Dot Com has the Wall Street casino continues its tumultuous ride well. How long is this going to go on? And how low can it go? Professor Michael Slater who is a professor of finance at Stockton University in New Jersey ways in in just a few six thirty now thirteen ten KFI KIA ROBERTA'S TO UNC. Bears target game coverage lives on thirteen ten. Kfi Well News continues to be grandma's those jobless numbers that just came out six point. Six four million has compared to the estimate of around three point. Three million six six thirty seven thirteen ten. Kfi A thirteen KFI K. A. dot com mornings. Okay all live local. Fueled by Great Western Petroleum This as a stocks stumbled to start the second quarter as the number of covert nineteen cases in the US. Topped two hundred thousand. How low can it go? Join this morning by our good friend Dr Michael Butler professor of Finance at Stockton University in New Jersey. Dr Presler welcome back to the show morning. Gail how are you? Thanks for happening by pleasure to be here. I so appreciate your taking the time first things first. I Know New Jersey second to New York in the number of cases of Covet nineteen. How're you doing? Well I'm doing okay. New Jersey is Has a very high number as you mentioned but Almost all of that is in the northern part of the state and part of the state. That's around New York City. I live in southern New Jersey. Just their city Down Beach Atlantic City Atlantic County. Here we only have about thirty five cases And NO DEATHS. I don't think There may be one so it's not too bad in this area in North Jersey though or have a lot of friends and associates Things are pretty bad up there. It's almost as bad as it is in New York City absolutely terrifying isn't it certainly certainly so is looking at the Wall Street Casino. These days as I mentioned in the urban as stocks opened the second quarter well they took a pretty hard fall in stocks are going to fluctuate wildly And most of it is due to whatever news happens to come out that that day if things are going to start to look negatives As it did when they said look the number of deaths as a result of this and likely to be around one hundred thousand could be as high as two hundred thousand catastrophic levels that sent the stock market really down. Now it comes out in the next day or two that Well the number of that because Not as bad as we thought and a number of new cases seems to be going down a little bit. I don't know if that'll happen in the next couple of days but when it finally does that good news will trigger exactly the opposite. Mostly the stock market measured by the Dow. Go Up. Perhaps a thousand Points in a day. I think that yeah go ahead. I was GONNA say. I think the most likely scenario seems to be that the number of cases won't peak somewhere around the second or third week of April. So we're probably about two weeks away from the peak If the peak turns out to be not as bad as some of the numbers are talking about and It it looks like by the end of the month. We can start bringing some companies back to to work. The stock market will respond to that. I think very very favorably and yesterday's tumble of what nine hundred seventy three points. Four point four four percent S. and P. Five hundred Nasdaq composite. Both down four point four one percent. Well that only adds insult to injury after we saw the worst first quarter since nineteen eighty seven. I believe Yeah. It was a disaster. I mean the the stock market at the worst dropped From the peak to the lowest dip dropped about thirty seven percent. That's a huge drop Now let let me also say that. The history indicates the stock market tends to recover relatively quickly For normal bear market where the market goes down by about ten percent or fifteen percent usually three to six months later. It's back up to where it was before even in two thousand eight when the market dropped fifty percent fifty percent drop in the value of stocks it took about eighteen months for that to get back to to where it was so I think and I tell people that are very nervous about their retirement plans in particular. I tell them. Look just. Don't look at the stock market. They don't look at your portfolio. Don't look at the values come back in about sixty days and take a look at it Then I think will be on its way to recovery and I think by the end of the year maybe early part of next year We'll get back to the level. We were before. I expect a very strong robust recovery. One all of it. A Corona virus stuff is put behind us so you. You don't agree with Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren who called Kovic nineteen a black swan event. No defined that for us. Yeah so Black Swan when things. Everything goes bad and you could eventually get into a a very severe recession. Perhaps even depression. I don't see that happening For a couple reasons one before the this virus get January and February. Were generally very strong months. The economy was headed for three three and a half percent growth or better this year so the fundamental research unemployment was as low as we've ever had wages or calling up inflation is low. Total incomes are are going up or adding manufacturing jobs. Construction industry was doing well so everything economy was doing well up until this. This happened because the government Passed this two point. Two trillion dollar stimulus package which is both a good thing or a bad thing about that. But on the good side it it's GonNa make up for all of the income that People will lose as a result of being laid off. And there's been about. Ten million people laid off in the last two weeks. That's about seven percent of the of the workforce so you're GonNa see the unemployment number Spike But I think once that the virus tweaks which were hoping is within the next two or three weeks and the number of new case starts to go down and maybe by the end of April it'll be subsided enough that we can start to open up Parts of the country. I don't think we'll open up everything at once. 'cause areas like New York and North Jersey And California and then some of the other big cities I think they may be slower. Salt were to come back but most of the countries should be able to Start to come back and I can't wait for the day when I see in the newspaper. It Says No. New Cases of Corona virus were reported today so once we get to that point. I think the economy will rebound very quickly and very strongly. I expect this. That third and fourth quarters of this year Starting in July August June July August and September October November. Those two quarters. I expect them to be very very strong. So the second quarter. We're going to see a big drop. There's no doubt about it but once this thing gets over and we can return to normal. I see a big fast recovery both in the economy and the stock market. So I don't see any real negative Things happening the second quarter. Gdp will be awful I don't know whether technically it probably won't be a recessional. Though they make a call it that but it will be relatively short lived and I think the rebound will be very a quick and robust six forty five now thirteen ten KFI K. Eight not Michael. Butler is a public policy analyst economics expert and professor of finance at Stockton University in New Jersey. You know I wanted to pick up. I wanted to pull that thread. You were talking about the return to normal but I have to wonder as we've all had to adjust and adapt and hopefully advance Through the nightmare that is cove in nineteen that's affected our lives on just a multitude of levels is normal going to be different post Cova nineteen. Well I'm not sure now I'm from A. I'm not a psychologist but from a psychologist point of view you don't know what kind of Long term implications this this will have I mean essentially wool gone about six weeks Not Being able to touch anybody at the same that to hug people And Congregate so I. I think one of two things can can happen when when the government finally says it's okay to go back to normal people may say well look we've been In bad condition for so long. I WANNA go out and talk to want to go out to restaurants. I want my life to return to to normal as as quickly as possible. If that's the case you'll see a quick recovery and more quicker return to normal on the other hand if people start to get used to not being around other people and being very cautious and that tends to linger I look to the future that could have very negative impacts will have to talk to the psychologist maybe and ask them out. Which one of those two are mostly right? But you know it's funny. I think it was Charles Pain on Fox business talking about the workplace and the fact that you know so many of us are working from home while we've been headed in that direction for quite some time and I said something to the effect of well. This will be the new normal. It's only happening faster than we thought it would. Yeah I agree with that too after Essentially six weeks of everybody working from home. We're going to start to realize we can do a lot of work with technology the way we We're we're having professor they. They closed the school down after Tom Brady. And we're doing everything online I don't think the online classes You get quite as much out of it as you do face to face because there's a lot of active learning that occurs face to face so I think that's a better Experience however we're finding out that there are subjects particularly some of the introductory subjects. That don't require a lot of class discussion Some of those subjects can be very easily caught Online and people are saying that they can work on crime today to through things like zoom in these Goto meeting kind of thing. Where meet the People Online And you're saving a whole lot of time and money so I agree with Charles paying that This will Speed up the transition from the everybody in an office the people working at home I think it will speed that up A little bit and I think that will turn out to be positive because I think the low improve efficiency. One other point We've relied on China for a lot of products for decades mostly because almost entirely because their wage rates are so low there and the workers are fairly productive. The cost to produce is so low that we make so much over there and we can bring it back over here to sell it and sell it at a lower price. The problem is some products like antibiotics and other medications. That are made there It's very vital that we have those things and maybe it's not such a good idea to rely on China for that so I think what's going to happen is you'll see a lot of manufacturing leaving China and come back to the. Us now in order to do that. And to keep the the cost and prices to the public reasonable We'll have to eliminate China's advantage so China's advantages low labour costs. What's going to happen? Will bring the manufacturing back and instead of it being labor intensive manufacturing it'll be capital intensive which means instead of hiring a lot of people to work in a factory. You'll have just a few number of people and robots and automation and artificial intelligence That way we'll be able to produce as cheaply as we could Using the labor intensive methods in China will be able to bring manufacturing back fortunately when Congress cut taxes and twenty eighteen. They cut taxes not only for the middle class the stimulate the economy and help people that need it but they also cut taxes for the upper class and for corporations that creates new capital. So what we're bringing this manufacturing back. There should be plenty of new capital available to build these Capital intensive plant. And I think you'll see we have much less reliance on China going into the future. You know the other problem is when Chinese officials are talking and flapping their guns. They're probably lying. And of course cove in nineteen came from. Wuhan all right in the minute or so that we have laughed. We touched on that. Two point two trillion dollar stimulus our own representative congressman. Ken Buck very vehemently vehemently opposed that for the simple reason. How are we going to pay for the stimulus? Package is a good thing and a bad thing. It's a good thing it'll help. People get the economy back quicker all that stroke however we had a one trillion dollar deficit before this. We just added two point two trillion to the spending and that's GonNa take the deficit up over three trillion plus because everything shut down for these six weeks. Tax Revenue is going to go down where we're looking at probably three and a half to four trillion dollar deficit this year. There's no way that can be sustained. And now they're talking about another stimulus package which there's no way we're going to be able to afford that so agree with The guest you had on That this is not a good thing. I'm not so sure I was in a position. I would have voted for Interesting Professor Michael Ostler. Public policy analysts economics expert and a professor of finance at a Stockton University. Thank you as always for your insights especially now Where can we learn more about you and your work? So my twitter account where I post all my columns at 'em Butler that's at M. B. U. S. L. E. R. And if you have a facebook page just search for funding democracy funding democracy by Patriot. Pop up I'd be happy if you followed me Professor Bass Larry. Thank you so much. Please stay well. Thank you six fifty to thirteen ten. Kfi K. Guy Burst UNC bears targeting game coverage lives on thirteen ten. Kfi K. Thirteen ten KFI thirteen ten K. K. A. Dot com six fifty six sports story in northern Colorado state in the country tune into the whole show weekdays noon to two and thirteen ten KFI K. Six fifty eight on your Thursday morning thirteen ten. Kfi A thirteen ten K. A. K. A. Dot Com Morton Sagale light local fueled by Great Western Petroleum. All right many of us are expecting a check from the federal government in the next several weeks. This as part of that Cares bill that stimulus package intended to provide the country financial relief as Cova de Nineteen stresses physical and financial health around the world retirees and those who claim a social security are indeed part of that group though? They may face says some complications. We're going to work through that with a tie. Allen of H and R block of Greeley when? He joins US this morning at eight thirty five but coming up. Fort Collins. Nonprofit CROSSROADS SAFE HOUSE WILL HOSTING. Its first couch concert. It's a facebook event this evening from six to eight. Pm and if you're tuned in you can enjoy live music now. The invent will serve to support local restaurants by encouraging takeout. Orders to enjoy while. You're sitting there being couch potato and also raising funds for crossroads as safe. House is a nonprofit serving victims of domestic violence. They need help now more than they ever have Jacqueline Tighly From Crossroads Safehouse ways in when she joins us at seven. Oh Five. Abc News than local news. Coming your way in just a few thirteen ten K. APP K. A. Greeley loveland burst. Unc bears target game coverage lives thirteen ten KFI K.