Marketers Live Sports Ad Spend, Twitch Ads on Amazon Advertising and OOH Ads in Q2 | Oct 13, 2020


So. Like the ad you know you're going to get that viewership on the game but a lot of times they're paying because there's a lot of coverage of advertising in the Super Bowl and a lot of chatter whether it's on the internet or in trade publications that I feel like your reach is much greater than just what you get from. A. It's Tuesday October Thirteenth Ross Oskar listeners welcomes conversation that covers all the digital media advertising immersed tech news is the behind the numbers daily an email to podcast sponsored by new star Marcus. Johnson. Your host executive producer and I'm joined by three folks we have with us our senior analyst covering TV and video is Ross Benesch Marcus. Hello there also joined by forecasting analyst Eric Trump thanks for having me hey chap and senior forecasting analysts Oscar a ROSCO joins the show. Thanks for having marks. Hey, buddy today's topic marketers spend on live sports ads. As marketing dive notes quotes. Marketers have spent almost one hundred million dollars to advertise during national broadcast of live games as professional sports return to TV after temporarily suspending seasons due to the pandemic over five hundred advertisers spent that amount during the NBA MLB an NHL Games according to research from. Media. Raider close quote let's go through some of these leagues including the NFL of course but we start with the NBA so Jimmy Trainer of sports illustrated lists the numbers for the first couple of games in the NBA finals, and so we're going to take just the first three games for now. So I we games the NBA finals between the heat and a my Lakers game One seven point four million viewers game to six point one million viewers game three five point nine million viewers. So basically, Games one, two, three, it was between six to seven million viewers and he knows that those numbers are for game two three are all time lows for the NBA Finals for context says game to took place on a Friday night the NBA Never Plays Finals Games on Friday nights because viewership for Friday's is terrible and game three to place on a Sunday night going head to head with the NFL which obviously normally doesn't do. He says, the real issue is that the first game drew seven million viewers last year's finals between the warriors and raptors. Fifteen million viewers guys was he make these NBA finals numbers? Well, there's a ton of different things going on first off. As you mentioned, these Games are going up against the NFL they're going against up against Friday nights they're going up against. All these other sports including a the MLB playoffs as well. So there's just a lot of competition right now right college football. Yeah, and at the same time to receive increased cord cutting, you know there's fewer people who have access to pay TV that's required to watch these games. So there's really just a whole group of things and not to mention that we're in the middle. Of election and they're also going up against various you know debates and just general news stories as well. Right? Right. Yeah. For me it's a couple other things as well. I think it's definitely covid related just people's routines going used to be going to work coming home you know having dinner spending time with family watching the game everything is just been flipped and everyone's routines are. Just, so different now that it's people might be watching television when they can or when they're able to less. So you know about sitting down after meal and watching the big game at the end of the night something like that. So that's playing. That's a big part of it as well I. also think maybe you guys disagree with this but having no fans in the stadium. It just makes it feel like the Games aren't as important or there's something about it that might be turning people off a little bit. It's definitely lots compelling fans. Yeah. I'm curious what you think because a Lakers fan. So I'm going to watch it because they're in the finals. But if you're not a fan of the two teams you're watching for the playoff atmosphere right finals atmosphere. Missing a little bit for sure I. I noticed this I'm a big football fan just not having the the fans in the stadium for certain teams to get teams like the saints or the cowboys I mean it just doesn't feel the same. You know right there was some research on that Maggots has been research showing eight, thousand, nine percent of respondents to the survey said, they would enjoy watching sports played with no fans in the stands. So most said, they would enjoy it regards however in the beginning I remember when they were asked before sports came back. Would you prefer? Fans or not emotion I'm not watching it unless there are fans and then beloved league said we have to have no fans and said, okay, fine. I'll do it because I'm desperate for sports. So yeah, I think as we get closer to through the playoffs towards the finals of leagues, fans matter more and more. So I think it's a fair point I mean it's any live event. The US Open ship was down pro wrestling viewership is down like Oscar said it without the fans if like you're kind of watching a scrimmage, it doesn't seem like you're watching like the NBA finals. And there's a few other things too I want to add one of them is like the in particular it's Kinda hard to like get the season when you have the season going and you stop it for like a few months and then it comes back a weird altered form in MLB like it's only sixty games this year instead of one, sixty two. So there's just Not The buildup the playoffs usually get monster ratings compared to the regular season. 'cause there's a build off you're watching the wild card race or you're watching the playoff race for like multiple months, and you have all these great players who are playing with some of them have opted out. There's a lot of weird stuff going on that like I feel like there's like ten. Different reasons why the sports viewership is down and People WanNa Kinda single out the NBA but it's really across basically every league and it'll be kind of parse out because of the regional sports networks in less national TV ratings but basically, sports ratings are down ton of nuance. That is yeah. I mean also kind of touched on this with God's to people's schedules change but. Ross. Umeda points me area where email back and forth saying that the way people watch things have changed normally you want with people. Oh yeah, definitely. Yeah. You're not going to watch football with your buddies bar as he says, the fact for sure my girlfriend doesn't like really want to watch sports at me so I watch it lasts if I can't go happens to meet to. Really I was actually gonNA bring up exactly what you brought up. There's no co viewing now there's no parties. There's no you know just watching these things at a bar and you know having a beer wall, the game's going on. So that has to also factor in as well a ton. So I'm a baseball fan I would say I watch baseball. If my team the dodgers make the playoffs and then I typically don't watch them that much because they always lose you really like. Don't you do indeed. Yeah you. Have to have no choice for a secret reason, I won't tell you later on in life but they were saying about you mentioned about the condensed sixty game baseball season and I was wondering baseball fans I, know there's a couple of guys who follow baseball here is that made it more attractive or less attractive because it sixty games as opposed to was at one, sixty, two you getting Extended playoffs there's more teams in the playoffs the normal it feels like similar to American football. When reason they're so popular is because there are so few games and so every day matters that much more wash your guy's opinion on baseball the season in the new format as a baseball fan to be honest with you. I like the longer season because it's kind of difficult to watch single game. From start to finish, but it's really easy for me at least to. Watch parts of games over the course of the season. So maybe just have it on the background. I'm a very passive baseball view or at least during the regular season, and then you get Kinda start again to these story lines where. The Yankees First Baseman is hurt but they have a new backup who is doing really well, and he's on a streak and maybe it'll take a while for pitchers to figure out you know his weaknesses and it kind of goes on and on and on. Whereas in the shorter season, you just haven't had those same kind of longer terms I'm using the term story. Lines yeah. I totally agree the Eric actually for me at least then for many fans baseball's so much about the numbers and statistics. I, mean you know to a certain extent but it is such a long season you you are looking for trends. Our pitchers Er as doing seasonal to some guys are better in the summer than they are in the cooler climates batting averages. It's definitely injuries as well. Part of that is being missed, and that's no disrespect to what the MLB day and had to do i. do think you know I. It's different way of viewing the season but that big aspect of baseball it was definitely missed this NBA. Playoffs up during prime time not up, not much during day games the number of US over over the playoffs down some. Different ways though if you look at the pent up demand, how much people wanted the sport back, they really did number of people who into MBA Games over the twelve days since play resumes the couple of weeks when they came back forty, seven, million, fifty percent higher than those who chewed injuring the I twelve days of the season and that's coin to neo sin. If you look back over the last couple of decades since two thousand, the NBA playoffs typically average north south of fifteen million viewers. May Playoffs About fifteen million peaking at twenty million for the warriors. cavs battles in two thousand, sixteen, Seventeen when cows one, twenty sixteen and then joined the team and the war is won twenty seventeen is now a seven million. So it is down a fair amount Ross. You'd also been reading some speculation that some of this is due to I love the political commentary or social movement stuff that you're seeing as povey NBA. A lot of chatter on twitter and like in local newspapers like the columnist for the Nebraska. Hometown paper that my parents read labs about this a lot. But I I just don't really buy into that because the ratings are also down in these other sports. It's a convenient way to to say, oh, they're doing something I don't like they're making a stand therefore they're taking but we've already laid out about eight or nine reasons why all sports are being affected right now not just the NBA but. That's something that's happening in sports media. Twitter's you see in that accusation a lot I mean, the election as a whole saw data point earlier that said that the two thousand sixteen election there was a fourteen percent drop in NFL ratings at Tony Sixteen that was pretty much the main sport at that time. So you know politics I think the election as a whole is definitely has always had an effect kind of so maybe we should give it a twenty twenty, a little bit of pass. The. Pandemic, news. meteoroid on state was showing that most top brands that advertise with the NBA. NHL Mlb. Games ready to continue their marketing activities. Once things came back but NFL Games made up forty seven of the top fifty, forty seven out of fifty of a top telecasts last year according to Nielsen data cited by CNBC. So this is the NFL season viewership Ronnie a couple of weeks into the season but NFL's ratings for the twenty twenty season. We're down just five percents year on year with viewership increasing each week leagues overruled deliveries through week three. So week one through three average to about fifty million viewers representing a five percents year on year. Percents your thoughts on how the NFL's done so far I mean that five percent dip isn't too far off from the expected dip in total pay-tv households. You know obviously not one to one, but it's kind of interesting that they're pretty close. Yeah. Well, I mean on that Eric Speaking of pay TV. What are we seeing with regards to court cussing because sports that huge factor with people with The Gospel. Subscribing to pay TV the most important factor according to a study from March to June by a media consulting firm, we mentioned the civic science things that news is actually the main reason thirty percents of that three thousand Samples Sang. News live. Sports had twenty two percents of bit behind that. But regardless is this sore it's news. Both have been affected this year someone in some way shape. Or form the Sheriff People Eric who said they cut the cord from q two to three coin to this study from civic science went from thirty to thirty, five percent. So a slight increase, the share of those considering cussing tick down the bit how do we expect to the current sports scheduling to affect code cussing cord cutting is really driven by a number of things including sports scheduling I would. Say That's actually more of a minor thing to keep in mind but you know we are expecting about a seven and a half percent dip in traditional pay TV households this year an even when you add back in Kinda, the VP's your Hulu with live TV's sling TV's YouTube TV's digitally delivered players were still expecting about a six percent drop in total. Okay. There's definitely such a shift to. Streaming live sports right and this is hitting close to home because I'm currently really excited about international break for soccer all the countries play each other and it's just unbelievably difficult to watch games. Now, are there just you know on so many different services and so you know there's definitely that shift to delivering sports over the top like that. It's new revenue streams for these services, but you know things like Fubo TV and. Eric ready mentioned slaying but even things as specific as UFC fight pass for you have see in MLB TV there's so many ESPN plus so that's definitely an emerging trend there. So, cable just a nice. It's just nice kind of catch all. The. As if you leave cable behind, you still have to do the research of can I'm surprised lobby services aren't marketing themselves like showing if you're an NBA fan, we've got it all if you're in the NFL fan we. Need to watch those games because that's still within the bundle though I mean, you know if you want to watch all the Games you can watch on cable. You're still going to need to get the MVP D, which is going to cost you just as much almost as traditional cable. And is knowing like true over the top you know Ala Carte sports and there's a ton of reasons for that to be honest like even like ESPN pluses very limited MLB TV's very limited. Yeah. It's just it's tough out there especially for you know someone who might WanNa Watch all sorts of sports you just have to sell out money or keep paying for cable, and then you definitely have to add different tiers of channels through. These are the guys that I can't get rid of cable yet right I mean who does Say who live sports. Now, big marketing campaign that they've got my question is which one's well, they're just the same ones as well. You'd get on cable it's essentially a digitally delivered cable package with Hulu, right but some of them don't write some of them won't have some of the packages don't have ESPN or at least they didn't in the beginning of John More now all the does they don't have like some of the more specific ones like I think NFL networks not on. Hulu. Live TV but they have okay on. ESPN for a while it does now. ESPN TNT ABC like do you have the channels which are gonNA hose bounce cable? Do you have the CBS Fox sports that host of football I guess a lot of them do now but still some element of research to make sure that they've got the challenge that you want at Youtube TV just dropped a bunch of regional sports network yeah. They dropped allowed the ones who carry a baseball, which is funny because baseball season's over you know at least in terms of what the RSN's have. So there's nothing really air I. Know they dropped Yes for example also okay. Second Matt to football for a second the ratings for the NFL's opening weekends were down three percents from twenty nineteen we showed up at three weeks down five percents but yet not terrible or things considered Jensen wants. To pivot to the Super Bowl, for a second, we'd cover this news before but I want to get your guys opinions on this Oh Viacom CBS looking for around five and a half million dollars for each thirty second commercial spot during the twenty twenty one super bowl coins the wall. Street. Journal Shade off of Twenty Twenty s price for thirty seconds of Super. Bowl at times the price is pretty much the same, but it's down a fraction. From that price, the average price of an in game super bowl ads has increased every year since two thousand eight overseas is a very different time, very different year, but it's still important. I think looking ahead to the super bowl because of the size of audience that it does provide what are your thoughts at this point about the price of super bowl commercials advertises commitments, something like Super Bowl, and what kind of audience it could potentially. Rack up more of the benefit of a super bowl conversation happens around it. So like the ad you know you're GonNa get that viewership on the game but a lot of times they're paying because there's a lot of coverage of advertising in the Super Bowl a lot of chatter that comes like whether it's on the internet or in trade publications that I feel like your reach is much greater than just what you get from the game People who really don't care about the game end are excited to watch the Super Bowl just to see the ads. It's maybe the only event around the in the year that leads to that kind of sort of viewing. But Yeah, the Super Bowl is completely exempt from everything else that's going around does not surprise me that prices are higher than last year riot. Do we think the Super Bowl is going to happen though who? Asked the question that Are asking right and they're saying they want a ways out they want to be able to back of those super bowl commitments, which seems as though CBS is saying that you can you will be able to, but they're making sure that they can just in case it doesn't go ahead. I mean we've seen some of Kobe Cases Star to pop up in the NFL starting to delay games and push them back but the NFL. Money beyond spending this is these numbers from Kantar in the Wall Street Journal TV AD bending regular season for the NFL was a regular season three and a half billion postseason one and a half billion thus basically five billion college football in second place distant second just over a billion so they're going to do everything they can to keep the NFL alive, right. And and make sure the continues NFL also fortunate. They have one game a week like MLB had a ton of cancellations with the MARLINS and the cardinals one I. Think the cardinals had played like ten fewer games than everyone at the beginning of the season but you know those teams are playing four games a week sometimes so right I fell your GonNa. See some. Cancellations and some you know major players get Cova but I think it'd be a little easier to avoid light major disruption because you are so spaced out with your games right and I. Guess There's only one final game. There's no series. Yeah. This new series of getting my concern is that you know the Tennessee titans have now break right now now only can they? Not. Play, Games. But everyone else who they're scheduled to play with or going to be forced to take by you have an outbreak. It seems it with the New England. Patriots were a couple players have covid. They just played. You know the champion Kansas City. We'll see if they contract anything I. Mean you're talking about a relatively small league with one playoff team being. Playoff team from last year being sidelined for part of the euro already men potentially two more teams being significantly. Impacted as well, and that's what we know. Right. Now, obviously more can come out soon. Yeah, and looking at College Football Panic twenty-one College Football Games Thomas Recording and been canceled or postponed. Choose the players testing positive for the corona virus that was questions whether they be able to bring back all of the kind of power five college football conferences they have. Now all agreed to resume some sort. Of Modified play this season, all of them they have a modified seasons right there. Some kind of shortened version. Yeah. A lot of non conference games got NFL slush. You're talking about college football right? Yep Yep Yep College football. Yeah. Like pretty much those big conferences are playing very, very few non conference games. Most of them aren't playing any non conference games. Even like the big twelve which reduced its schedule less than other conferences, they're still not doing like three non conference games and the realistically be some cancellations along the way. Now I don't think anyone's going to like play their full slate schedule, right? Yeah. Lost you already happened cancellation. What am I able? Yeah. Yeah. They've been handful. Bringing in is the mentioned overbuilding one point seven, billion in national and spot TV AD revenues coincidence Kantar media in second and back to the Super Bowl for a second. Yeah. Tim McGovern President of Optimum Sports Sports Marketing Group Com group saying that there is no plan B when it comes to super bowl hundred, two, million viewers tuned into the twenty. Twenty. Super Bowl on Fox network and its digital platforms for last year Super Bowl and I think CBO. Has of the top twenty most watched shows ever mash finale is the only one that breaks into those top ten. It also could be one of the few big events. This season these next day twenty, twenty one is the pandemic seems to have affected the Oscars. That's being pushed back as well as a bunch of other events, Fox Super Bowl, AD revenue, half a billion dollars. So Yeah. Definitely. Money the to be able to make sure that they pull in and make sure that advertises can spend. There was some country on what's going on with NHL. Sang that the stacking of NHL Games throughout the day up to six. Sometimes likely helped build the audience there Dan Loving executive vice president of CEOS FM NBC sports. Group said, it's kind of like a march madness. Almost people are loving in getting hockey whenever they want however the first three rounds of the Stanley. Cup Playoffs were down twenty eight percent year-on-year. The finals was down fifty five percents guys any thoughts on hockey and just not Being a march madness I felt that way with the NBA I literally watched every single game of the playoffs for from everything but I will say about the NHL is at the do you have smaller audience than many of these other sports leagues, but those fans are very engaged for the most part. So that makes complete sense to me that you'll have significant people who will watch every single hockey game all day. If it's six or seven games and just add the few casual fans likely to potentially be watching other sports at the same time. Right. So that's likely why we have that fifty five percent drop in the ratings from last year. So that's that's the story I think with NHL. So to close out the lead story, guys to advertising spending from March through May to Kline's blind nearly fifty seven percents compared to similar period loss jake year, into standard media index demand did pick back up in June Ross TV and video analysts what your thoughts on kind of the State of TV advertising the minute. In the context of the live sports in us that we've been talking about. Yes. So TV Advertising GonNa take a pretty strong hip like you said, you know sixty billion. Previously expected closer to seventy billion new sports outside a lot I. think it's really just cord cutting with bad advertiser in. kind of around the industry, the up fronts are finally starting to wrap up. But those are also significantly down it just a lot of people trying to figure out how to reorient themselves. You know a lot of innovations being forced into a tight window. Right so we got time for the story. Thanks gents. I'll see you guys in the other side of the ad reads I. Quit Message From Las Vegas a new start, and then we'll be back with another news. During a time of unprecedented disruption, we could all use a bit of guidance join Usta brave new wells twenty twenty, which is a brand new annual summit where they'll tackle some of today's tough marketing challenges and you know what? It takes to be a true the high impact future forward. Grand. You can register for free a brave. New Star slash marketer. This brave New Orleans starts any USTA slash. Folks whip back today in other news facebook just announced that it would temporarily holds all poets go ads in America after the election twitch is now selling entry on Amazon's advertising platform and advertising was down forty five percents in Q. Two. Story One facebook just announced that it would temporarily halt social issue electoral and political ads in America after the election polls close on November. Third Facebook said it is doing this to try and reduce the confusion about the results of the election. The bylaws for at least a week for facebook advertisers know when it has been lifted. Your thoughts you cover advertising for us. What do you think you know I? It's a no brainer to be honest with you. I think that the issues around facebook advertising facebook political advertising are fairly overblown for the most part but as much as they can you know kind of remove themselves from this whole conversation after the election where there's probably not a whole lot of money to be made anyway makes a ton of sense good comment from BBC news cyber reported Joe Tidy, and he says how much of a problem was paid for advertising really going to be at that stage in an election. So yeah, I think overblown is fair in. The Best of times, and now this is going to be post-election. So yeah questions of how big of a deal with this really is in September Google made a similar move Jeff Horowitz of the Wall Street Journal noted that the new announcement facebook drew praise from civil rights groups that have criticized facebook for failing to police voter suppression intimidation efforts in September facebook noted that were not allowing you political ads a week before the election existing ones can still roll through and it wouldn't allow premature election victory ads story to recent walk. Oscar explains that quote Amazon is bringing twitch inventory into the mainstream nosing that the game streaming service is now sending imagery on Amazon's. Platform as ad week explains by as canal by twitch audiences alongside Amazon Amazon. Of course, owns twitch Rossio thoughts it makes a lot of sense for Amazon to bring twitch together with this other offerings. Amazon's really building out a pretty big video ad business right now with you know every the negative fire TV their DSP IMDB TV. To have twitch option, it just seemed very sensible coins, extreme elements and ask nor G G time spent watching gaming contents onto it jumped fifty percents for much tim just march to. April in two thousand and twenty we estimated twitch would reach Costa thirty eight million viewers in the US this year but are updated figures throw an extra four million on the pile reaching forty, two, million twitch viewers and twenty twenty that's up from thirty three last year's thirty, three to forty, two in just a year's time, which is non gaming categories of seen. Huge growth is live events were canceled musicians artists performed at to find a new home music and performing arts viewership nearly quadrupled from April. Twenty. Nineteen. To April Twenty, twenty viewership of that. Just a category also spiked story three the Advertising Association of America Oh Aaa said the out of our -tising was down forty five percent in q two and down twenty five percents in H-. H. One despite this thirty one of the top one hundred out of advertisers had increased the out of home spend from Q two, thousand Nineteen Oscar. Your thoughts on this album advertising number being down forty five percent in q two well yeah it's it's great timing actually because we've. Just. Updated our own emarketer out of home at estimates. Yes. Exactly and you know whenever I can mention any of our numbers I do but you know this. So the source of the Outdoor Advertising Association of America is is a major indicator for us, and so what we have is a full year estimate estimate and we believe that overall o h out of home advertising will decline about twenty two percent in twenty twenty and it's it's really no surprise I mean when we consider just dependent make affecting. People going out essentially the impact on closures everywhere retail stores to malls with we just talked about sports or Arenas, and stadiums, bars and restaurants even just public transportation less driving. It's no surprise that these budgets might be shifting somewhere else probably digital. So these numbers are not surprising by any means. So as we know digital out of home is is a major driver of the total category but according. To the Outdoor Advertising Association of America Digital's out of home share of total out of home actually drop to only twenty percent in q two from thirty percent share adding Q. One. But that's likely because digital transactions like these advertisers can much quicker cancel vs versus just your traditional campaigns. So this is likely why we've seen this drop but again, the digital out of home category is really what's driving. Just all of out of home and so yeah, we'd had our for mount spending in the US fooling percent Oscar you saying that these numbers are going to be a lot worse now and Russia mentioning because we've got more data than we had back in June when we lost update whose figures. Yeah. When we first update them, we make a little bit more of a projection the effective out our home hat on these companies, it takes a little while. To show up because out of home advertising, usually sold months in advance of when a campaign ran. Right. So the first quarter after the pandemic didn't really give a full picture. We wanted to be kind of conservative to not overstate things. But now that we've had more time to pandemic has been pretty lengthy and we don't really have an idea of when it's going to end. We revise them downward. Okay. Yeah. We've plugged in some some Q. Three numbers. To, give you a revised figures on advertising, check them out if you're a pro subscribe, the Oh aaa also noted that quote due to the nationwide closes a movie. Cinema and spending reported in Q. Two of the place base locations was the impacted by significant closures limited operations such as retail stores, shopping malls arena stadium is restaurants and bars and health clubs. Close quote you can check out Rossi's US dish to advertising spending twenty, twenty, covid nineteen dampens outdoor advertising reports on emarketer pro just notes that the numbers in there have been updated you can catch an email to pro not now surely in the next. Week or so they'll. They'll pair on the platform on my nose numbers will be a lot worse than before as we got time for for this episode. Thank you so much to my guests. Thank you to Ross Bass Farkas. Thank you, Eric. Thank you. Thank you, Oscar. Thanks for having me. Thank you to everyone listening. If you WANNA say hi emails at Kasey Mocked Dot Com you can listen tomorrow for the behind the numbers add platform show. PODCAST sponsored by new. Style

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