The Tom Dupree Show 8-9am 3-14-20
Winging paid program on six thirty wwl a this is the time to free show on newsradio six thirty WWL AV and WWL. Ap Dot Com. Well I guess you alive not a on your shades. You know what the call if you want it. You welcome to the Tom to pre show. What do you got a little bad finger there? Yeah that's a good intro Yeah just a little bit. We got some things we're GONNA talk about. Obviously we've been in a very bearish scenario with stocks. Horrible things going on in terms of the corona virus and preparations for that. But we're going to talk first about Some things that you should know about bear markets. And so this week. Let's let's recap this this week. Real quick we need to redefine the WORD RECAP REDEFINE RECAP REDEFINED. Recap right after this war. Yeah Yeah Recap I don't know what is a good word is right so it started on Monday. You had the surprise announcement from the Saudis in Russia. You had everything going on there with all price. Oil prices so pre-market trading they have circuit breakers circuit. Breakers that go on during the day with trading too which is it stops the market from trading when it hits the circuit breaker. Right exactly it halts for a little while so you had a limit down which is five percent pre-market Sunday night. Then you had a limit down Wednesday night right then. You had a limit up Thursday night right so I mean they're just incredible volatility You know Thursday was though the biggest. You know that there's been headlines. You know biggest point drop you know since such and such Thursday was a new one. I mean that was a ten percent drop. That's the biggest percentage drop since nineteen eighty-seven so it was a big drop Thursday Yesterday we had almost. It was over nine percent up up yesterday. That's after trump's announcement that they were gonNA commit fifty billion dollars to the Corona virus effort. Yeah and he had all the CEO's of the different pharmaceutical companies in Walgreens. Getting like that and government officials right and getting the testing out there which wasn't even after it guy and I were sitting watching tracked end of trading as each CEO is being introduced the more it was just ratcheting up like a straight arrow. This isn't against trump. But we all know you know when he came on the air on Wednesday night was it Wednesday night. He gave the talk. It was in of course. Thirsty was just horrific. Yup and they said a lot of people are saying like what trump had to say Wednesday night he was just wasn't real confident firm and his plans were Kinda vague etc etc. But when he started speaking yesterday. Elizabeth. I headed up on the big screen. And we had the market index right next to it the the market dropped about three hundred points but then when all the CEO's were being introduced engine stepping up and what they're going to be doing in the unity and the collaboration you know it was just out in the market went up. What seven hundred fifty points or something during his talk right? Yeah and it closed up. You know nine thousand nine hundred points for the day. Yeah something like that yesterday So I mean it was just it. Was You know a big day up yesterday? Now what we've been seeing volatility. There's a measurement called the vix volatility index and the volatility index is just been you know at levels not seen since. Oh eight zero nine. And and that's why we're seeing these big moves. Exporting Real Quick Mike the Volatility Index for the listeners. That don't know what that is Vicks. It's it's like the market land. Basically you WanNa get on what the market's going to do. It's kind of like betting on a football gang. Exactly call in Vegas doing the same thing. Is that correct right? And and IT MEASURES OPTIONS. And it's just it's the expectation of volatility and you know expectation of volatility translates to real volatility right So you're seeing the volatility spike part of that. Ver- her on interesting statistic over it's between sixty and eighty percent of daily trading volume is algorithm computer trading. Big Point not being done by human being done by human beings by think about that do you. Ge- amounts of volume money. That's just sloshing around in the system when you have volatility like this that that amount of trading adds to the volatility. Well it triggers it. Doesn't it it triggers and then it feeds on it it feeds on itself which bigger now nowadays because that model was not as active in my understanding correctly like an eight or nine that model of the algorithm triggered trading was not like it is today so even fueling it more than what was going on a no eight absolutely hence the reason for the circuit breakers that you were just talking about right right. Those weren't in place in La Donna at that. I'm not sure I'm not sure if those were in place at that probably were. I can't I can't promise you on that. But the the computer trading that can be these these programs will trade on anything from the smallest inconsistency on pricing on treasuries or on certain sectors very very miniscule pieces of the market and kind of dark corners of the market. They'll trade on but it just it just fuels that volatility right So it's it's interesting you look at what's been going on and the The people are not trading on fundamentals and this volatility based on fear and Simply just sell everything at this point. Sell every out. If if if a certain level is hit the computer says self certain levels hit the computer says by in that creates volatility now where that steamrolls into the the average investors you see this volatility well naturally emotion kicks in and then you have selling on top of that so I if if the market's going up you'll have buyers. Well I'm I need to get in because I'm GONNA miss out if it's going down so the market is dictating the direction that a lot of people are trading right now but when you look at the fundamentals most things are not trading based on fundamentals. They can be extremely cheap based on the underlying business and what's actually their revenues. Were the question is now at this point with shutdown. There's obviously going to be a lowering of expectations in terms of earnings right. Now right right. And that's what the market trying to gauge Is what will the actual earnings look like when they start coming out? Yeah and so. You've had this knee jerk reaction that you know sell now ask questions later and once earning start coming out. You'RE GONNA find that equilibrium You know earnings leader be worse than what the markets expect. That are better Or you know so your that's one. It'll find footing and you'll see more Pricing based on fundamentals. Well you know it's interesting when you talk about the earnings piece that we're approaching everybody's expecting that but yet people are spending buddy like the world is. How many pictures did we see this week of empty shells? Every store across America is just these runs like Oh my God. We've got a snowstorm of three weeks. The coming now there could be something underneath that. What's the impact going to be as it relates to the media industry the Sports Industry Entertainment? They seem to be the areas that are really being paralyzed absolutely. Yeah it's interesting You look at. Let's go and take a break here. Okay okay it's time to pre show newsradio six thirty wwl. Ap This is what's happened to run a virus. Pandemic to prevent the spread of this disease has several measures proved attest warranty check in throughout the day. Losing schools no sporting events hair and take precaution with newsradio. Six thirty. Wla Hi this is Tom. Debris junior if you have your retirement savings in a 401k or four three B plan your money is in a mutual fund more than like in a Mutual Fund. You invest with a group of people and you are affected by the group with which you invest if they are withdrawing money while you're holding tie your investment performance could be affected negatively at the pre financial group invest every account individuals. That means each client owns his or her own group of securities which is unaffected by the behavior of other invest. It is not a pool to camp for Free Review of your retirement investment holdings called the Pre Financial Group at eight five nine two three three zero four hundred and make a no obligation point. Also be sure to listen to the Tom. Depre- show on Saturdays from seven to nine. Am That's depre- financial group at eight. Five nine two three three zero four hundred and DuPrey financial dot com. This is the home of the wildcats. Six thirty wwl a pass back on the Tom. That ratio ten things you should know about bear markets so we've not been in a bear market since the financial crisis eleven years eleven years battling anniversary of the bull market. Was it thirsty or went Tuesday? The all was at Tuesday. I think it was Tuesday. Was the eleven year anniversary. Yeah thank you. Dottie Arabia and Russia just made the Black Cowboy Boulder out one thing. Real quick Guy. You're just talking about the consumer being strong people spending money you interesting to Statistic Household Debt Service Ratio. Which is how much of your income's going to service debt on average the the consumer right now As of the fourth quarter of nineteen stood at nine point seven percent back in fourth quarter of seven right before the financial crisis that was closer was over thirteen percent going all the way. Back to nineteen eighty. It's not been below ten percent points because those people have the cash flow you know they've the consumer is not leveraging up you know you have You have student debt car. You know auto loans but you know with interest rates being low like they are they can service that debt better so that was just entering much more than they words other day. Yeah and one other thing because we talked about it at the beginning of the hour. Kudos to the House of Representatives twelve thirty eight last night. Yes past the the the bill for eight which I think is going to be outstanding and I don't know about you guys but I have received it four or five different emails from utility companies gas electric. You know all these services that we all use in require need daily saying we are here for you in the event that you lose your job. You can't we're not going to turn off your electric or cut off your gas or any of those things. I love seeing how this country is coming together to help each other absolutely in a time of uncertainty absolutely so. Let's let's talk about things that happen. Historically you know in a bear market. Let's put some of this in perspective here because a bear market is a drop of twenty percent or Fr- that's when you trigger a bear market from the most recent high so technically we are in a bear market now with zero debt. Feel either though does it. So you mean well bear bear market kind of Lazy Sleep. They sleep for a long period of time. And they're Klatten. Unassuming is not being the some key things though. Bear markets are normal Since Nineteen Twenty eight there have been twenty five bear markets in the S. and P. Five hundred During that same time there's been twenty six bull markets You break that down over the last ninety one years Bear markets of comprised. Only about twenty of those years put another way. Stocks have been on the rise seventy seven percent of the time. In general long-term stocks have gone up over time So bear markets are normal. Bear markets are corrections bear markets. They're actually healthy for yeah markets because it it weeds out fluff if you will. It gets things to real value. And that's when you know. Long term investors have opportunities Bear markets tend to be short lived The average length of a bear market is about ten months And that's significantly shorter than the average length of a bull market which is on average about little less than three years. That's a that's an interesting point right there. Average bull a little less than three years in. We're coming out of an eleven year bull market right. This one's interesting since World War Two Bear markets have been less frequent Before World War Two There were twelve bear markets About every one point four years since in seventy four years since the war ended there have been thirteen or one about every about every six years. Five point seven years so part of that has to do with information flow. I believe you know the the speed of information. Now that can add as we're seeing this week. Things will react more quickly. When news comes out. I think But it's just interesting. You know the It's been extending out That in the duration between bear markets since World War Two A bear market does not necessarily indicate a recession There have been twenty five bear markets since nineteen twenty nine but only fourteen recessions during that time. So what about fifty percent of the time? There'd been we'll have a recession this time well and and there are in it we could. We could because a global recession is a slowdown in economic growth. So if you have things shutting down you can have a technical recession but that doesn't you know the market's already pricing those kinds of things in to to a large degree And you could have a when well. The market is a leading indicator. So you typically and this this is. This is interesting here. Half of the S. and P. Five hundred strongest days in the last twenty years occurred during a bear market during a potential recession because the market will move twenty percent before. There's actually before that says. Hey you know. We're we're in a recession before. It says the recession ends. Yeah so it moves quicker. It moves quickly and I think you know the economy is so strong right now. The economic indicators are still solid I mean we've got a corona virus. Yeah Yeah which is GonNa you know if the reset we do have a recession. I think it's going to be one of these. Real short lived recessions just because of the corona virus effect on earnings. It'll just slow companies. Just enough my God. We got zero unemployment gas. It's right people are working. They've got cash to spend and they WANNA spend it and you know there might be a whole nother piece to this. Now get to my fantasy mind gets to roll. Thank about the IMF the psychological impact of this self quarantining. And when we come out of IT WOULD WE GONNA. WanNa do stuff stuff. That's right we're GONNA WANNA suspend and don't do stuff and travel at goal. Is this looking at me? Like he's debts on thinking let's Go let's go rock and roll which well when you don't know the markets despise uncertainty exactly. Yes don't know the impact that this virus is going to have. You don't even know this virus Yesterday we're getting going down the rabbit trail one of our fellow employees. I'm sure as listening. It said what makes you all in authority to talk about Coroda. Lot of impact on the market right now but It it's just the cause and result and the unknown of this virus. I was listening to another doctor last night. Talk about how to prevent getting it. And he's saying it's airborne somebody else's saying it surface. They don't know where it's coming. What it's you know so many uncertainties so we just need the battened down and use good judgment and that hope that it goes quickly doesn't have the economic impact so by can bounce back quickly right in. Bear markets are part of investing. You know how this is not something that's new. We're going to have a bear market again at some point in the future but the important thing how we invest. We're not because we don't know what the the economic impact in the short run is going to be from this. You know you can prognosticate on what things are going to be. You're going to have far lefts. You know projections far-right projections. You know optimistic pessimistic. It'll probably be somewhere in the middle And the market is has been it. Looks like reacting very pessimistically very conservatively? You know meaning sell off but when you look at the long term this is when you know you do your research because we don't know what's going to happen with the market so you have to fall back on something which is research yeah You know it's it's interesting you know you look at Jason's week did an article This was actually last week. But what what Benjamin Graham would tell you to do now look in the mirror This is something that you can control. You can't control. We can't control what the stock market does. But there are some things that you can control which is more the psychological side of things Andrew Investment Approach And I love the way you know he puts what Graham you know he summarizes it says forget about the start what the stock market is going to do instead. Focus on what you as an investor ought to do There are the the the the quote from Graham. The investors investor. That's that's key. Here not speculator. Investors primary interest lies in acquiring and holding suitable securities at suitable prices the speculator on the other hand mainly cares about anticipating and profiting from market fluctuations. So the long term investor. You know you he you know Graham. He came up with you. Know he's us. Mr Market The personification of the stock market and Mr Market every day offers to either buy or sell your stock or or sell more stock to you and Mr Market always wants to trade much of the time. The prices are sensible but a lot of time. They're ridiculously high or low and it's interesting. It's a paradox. But when when Mr Market says you know I'M GONNA I'll sell it to you at a lower price. More PEOPLE WANNA TRAE when prices go lower. More people trae those. Y'All that don't know who Benjamin Graham is. He's the father of value investing he is Warren Buffett's mentor. Wrote a book called the intelligent investor worth reading. Stay with us. It's the Tom to pre show. Newsradio six thirty pay. Morgan and Morgan consumer message every home built before nineteen seventy five has cast iron pipes that are failing. Have you experienced water damage? Slow drains or water stain walls. Did your insurance companies say that. Your claim was excluded because the damage was long term or over. Fourteen days are attorneys. Have been successful in overcoming this exclusion. Let our turns review your claim or free if your insurance company denied your water loss. Play all US immediately. Morgan and Morgan Offices Lexington help wanted LEXINGTON DOT com salutes. The employee of the month. The one employee you complete without the others. Let's just call them? Dave what are you doing? Dave we need help with payroll doing squats. Mr Employee of the month. I'm taking your advice. I'm working my butt off. 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You'RE GONNA have markets that go down and we've we've been saying that you know for the last several years you know you're gonNA have markets that go down. You have to know what you own why you own it and what the company does and how. They are financially right. When you know those details you can keep your emotions more in check when you see something like what happened yesterday. Happening where you're seeing stocks down ten twenty thirty percent. That's when you can say okay. You know Mr Market. Right now is willing to pay me the say. Let's say for my house. You have one hundred thousand dollar house today. That'd be great deal but let's say you had one hundred thousand dollar house. Market's willing to pay you seventy thousand dollars today for it. Am I going to sell it to them? For seventy thousand. No way no what it costs to build the house. I know what it's worth. So it's no different with a company with the stock when you see the market doing something like that you say okay. I I know what I have. No what the company is. And in our case the companies we own the companies that pay dividends. The dividend hasn't changed from what it was a month ago. Now whenever you get big dislocations in the market sometimes there are tangible things that have changed like with what happened with oil prices. That was a fundamental shift. Know because you know oil prices being at thirty instead of fifty. That's something that has changed as so what we do. We went back. And we're reviewing our exposure to energy and identifying areas that potentially. Let's say they say they do have a dividend cut. What would the potential impact be? Had this conversation with Someone yesterday when we're when we're putting together a an income producing portfolio say you have thirty different positions? Every one of them are paying. Dividends every single company in in our in our portfolio pays dividends. We know at any given time. There's a potential for some a couple of those companies to not pay a dividend unlikely but possible because dividends aren't guaranteed but in a market. Like this where you're seeing big sell-offs with cash and bonds were able to buy more or new companies that are also paying dividends so the net effect on the portfolio is to keep that income stream. Moving up yeah. So diversification different industries and keep the income that's coming from the portfolio to our clients increasing. We talk a lot about this. At Pre Financial Group in our cl- our phones aren't ringing that much because our clients have been very much so educated. And we like to talk about how we are. We EDUCATE AND WE'RE GUIDE. We empower you to enjoy your life during retirement. But when you think about Benjamin Graham and what his principles are he wrote this book fifty sixty years ago. Seventy two seventy two okay. This is a long time ago. We didn't even have a cell phone in one thousand nine hundred seven okay. The Internet didn't exist. You know or had not invented it all all right. Sorry that he want to silence made that even funny at your expense but says he says you should reconcile yourself that the probability rather than the mere possibility that stocks will fall by thirty three percent or more at least every five years. Now I want to share something with you guys. We're in market economy now. That information is instant right. Yes my son who is works in the government works in Frankfurt. He asked me to sign a sit dead. You won't keep up with the What's going on with Corona virus? And everything he said. You need to sign up for this twitter called bluegrass politics. I said okay. That sounds fun. You know so when the governor comes on and gives an announcement about something you can tweet. Now I've never done this guys. I'm I'm from the old generation. This was a new experience for me and I want you to now this past week. I probably got four thousand two hundred twenty three weeks ago and I wanNA tell you some- every one of those tweets terrified me. They created fear and anxiety in this was just about the corona virus. Okay now imagine if I'm invested in the market Elizabeth's over here and I'm in the markets and I'm paying attention to all this news. What's going on in Wall Street in this is hitting me. You would expect taft your investment population to be institutionalized right. It's like a flock of squirrels coming from about fifty direct. A keep calm. Be Calm tune out like I said. I'm not going to sell my home that I spent a hundred and fifty thousand dollars to build for seventy thousand. I'm not GonNa do that but back. God sure left getting my rent. Check every month right. And that's exactly what our principles are. That's what Benjamin Graham's principles our value investing absolutely and one of the things we've been able to help people with so much is a lot of our clients you know they they were coming from a 401k or some company retirement plan and those plans are great for accumulation. Because it those that's what they're set up for dollar cost. Averaging you know the problem is they're not set up to for the distribution phase in life and there's no person to talk to you're GonNa talk to an eight hundred number and they're gonNA give you know they a lot of times they can't give recommendations They'll just take an order But they won't give recommendations and it's times like this where you need somebody that you can trust that that you have built that relationship with you've put them to the test and you've been through ups and downs with and that you will go with them through ups and downs. That's when it's important to have that kind of a relationship as is to help. Keep your emotions in check you know. Philip talks about this lot on the show that you know. It's like a marriage and an our clients and the relationships. We have our like marriage and when I get fearful or concerned or anxious about something it's it's very comforting for me to be able to talk to my wife about how. I'm feeling and you now and just Kinda get it out of my head because sometimes when you live up inside your brain can become a very dangerous dark neighborhood and forty two hundred tart at all. It was vacantly crazy but you know when we do the same thing. Depre- you know in some clients did call you know. And they wanted to know what was going on. But absolutely you know we have this partnership this this forthright ongoing relationship that you know positive yesterday. This one of our sweet dear customers brought us to packages the most delicious muffins. And instead of US saying are you. Okay he was. He was thinking about us that we had had. But that's a relationship that we've developed and he's one of our our customers that takes the market pretty seriously And that that was spoke volumes. I'll I'll love our clients. I mean you're talking about that example. I had several of them to just talking to them on the phone. First thing they say are you all doing. Yeah and then you know we get to talk about the portfolio. What's going on in the market but and it's not just a formality. Hey how are you? It's like really you know interested. How are you doing you have a relationship? It's not just talking about business. Yeah Yeah and so that. That's that's what we want to build with our clients And it's it is a business relationship obviously but there's that personal side of it too that's right half of the S. and P. Five hundred strongest days in the last twenty years occurred during a bear market. It's right was in. That's that's why it's so hard to try to time. The market because inevitably the market will do the opposite or at the different time than you think it will if you miss out on and going memory here but if you miss out on the ten best trading days over a long period of time it reduced your total return about almost fifty percent right. I missing ten days. And that's why we we fall back on our research. Hold the companies that even if they're down in price hold onto him unless something has changed with the business and if something changes with with the underlying business will sell it in a heartbeat. Because that's when you don't want to hold onto something just be holding onto something And it's it's it to. It's incremental moves We're not market timers. And but we were looking you know back in January. Some companies that had gotten expensive. They weren't paying much in the way it did is because they'd gone up in price. Well we were selling them Trimming some selling all the positions of another We did that again. Few weeks ago. and it because we didn't know what the market we didn't know it was. GonNa do this. But valuations looked expensive And so the net effect was you know we we have cash had and still do have cash but it's small incremental moves over a long period. It keeps you from doing something drastic. Either JUMPING ALL IN. You know if you know. Go One hundred percent you know. Hey I'm GONNA put one hundred percent of my cash that I have right now in the market. We don't do that you know I was sell everything. Go to cash. We don't do that. It's incremental moves along the way and that is in our opinion the most prudent way to manage a portfolio. If somebody does call you. Oh Yeah it's always always their money and you can give them your opinion but ultimately if they want to go to all cash than than they do. It happened this week. Sure and yeah and that was okay. Go ahead and take a break here right. Yep You listen to the Tom to pre newsradio six thirty WWL EP. This is what's happened to run a virus. Pandemic to prevent the spread of this disease has several measures proved a tessler shaky and throughout the day losing schools no sporting events here and take newsradio six thirty. Wla Hi this. Is Tom Depre- junior if you have your retirement savings in a 401k or four three B plan your money is in a mutual fund? More than likely in a mutual fund you invest with a group of people and you are affected by the group with which you invest if they are withdrawing money while you're holding tie your investment performance could be affected negatively at the pre financial group invest every account individuals. That means each client owns his or her own group of securities which is unaffected by the behavior of other invest. It is not a pool to camp or free review of your retirement. Investment Holdings called the Pre Financial Group at eight five nine two three three zero four hundred. Make a no obligation point. Also be sure to listen to the Tom. Depre- show on Saturdays from seven to nine. Am That's depre- financial group at eight. Five nine two three three zero four hundred and depre- financial dot com. This is the home of the wildcats. Six thirty wwl. Ap Okay back on the Tom to pray show strategies going forward so this week well really the last couple of weeks Like as talking in the last segment we had sold some things that had gotten expensive. weren't paying as much in the way of dividends. Raise some cash So we are holding you know the the positions that we have currently and then slowly deliberately Diligently you know adding small amounts to certain areas that look attractive Things that have been priced like in an Oh eight oh nine scenario and are still paying good dividends. You know what you could get with a four percent dividend two weeks ago now as a six percent dividend or something like that so we've been slowly adding some positions for the long term hopefully appreciation in price but mo- most importantly for the long-term income for clients and it's cost averaging right mike the when the interest goes up it's not because the company's paying more dividend it's because the value of the stock is down stock prices gone down because of what's been going on in the market now in in a quarter six months time somewhere around there some of these probably they're going to be paying a higher dividend as well so if they're paying a dollar a share in dividends they might be paying a dollar ten in dividends because a lot of these companies have long histories of doing that and will probably continue to do that so it's a combination of the lower price and probably Johar dividend payments coming out right Assuming a fifty year investment horizon you could expect through to live through about fourteen bear markets. That's as much that's right that's right. Yeah Yeah I mean it is. It's a bunch. And that's there's there are a lot of Investors managers. Now out there right now that have never been through a bear market. Haven't been through one That's a good point. There's a lot because it's been seven years seven years and what a blessing that's been ooh You you have to be prepared emotionally and you have to have done your research going into a market like what we're in If not you're scrambling you know. You're you're saying you know you're you're saying oh my gosh what what has what is going on you know emotionally you weren't prepared and you're scrambling trying to get data on what what's your clients own. You have to do it. You have to do your due diligence constantly for environments like this can possibly have conviction in what you own and the competence to if you I don't know I really wonder would have been interesting to be in some of the other offices where the research comes out of New York or London or wherever and and how they I mean you think that we were uneasy knowing what we know and being invested with income based products that the customers are still going to be able to pay their light bill and whatever and they're not watching their life savings plummet without having income coming back in but I the having that conviction is absolutely key Absolutely yeah and Because Tom you've talked before you know when you were you know at another firm you know long. Long time ago they had the the the guru that was recommending. These things in win the market went the other way silence. Yeah there was. There was nothing you couldn't get the information from the source right. That's why we do our own research. Yeah that's the source. Our clients can access the source of the information. There's an ability speak in a research. I didn't have this last week and I wish out did that. I hadn't had time to do. The research did some research this week and I'd like to share it with our listeners and I think it's appropriate and it's something positive versus negative So I finally got an analysis of how the market his done after every epidemic. Pandemic that we've experienced going back forty years in corona virus like the corona virus. You are all in very surprising this is the SNP okay numbers HIV age. Now this is after the first case was announced okay. June of eighty one six months later the market was down point. Three percent twelve months later was down sixteen and a half percent in. Y'All know that was probably the most has been the most deadly pandemic we've had. It's still going on today. We still don't have a cure so I'm not surprised by that number. Let's go to SARS skip. Some of these SARS was a big deal. April two thousand three six months later the market was up fourteen and a half percent twelve months later. Twenty percent the swine flu April of two thousand nine six months later the market was up. Eighteen point seven percent twelve months later. Thirty five point nine six percent and then let's go to murders in which was may of two thousand thirteen. I case six months later market was up ten percent twelve months later almost a seventeen point nine six percent so I don't know most recent was Zeke. A virus which was January of two thousand sixteen and the market was at twelve percent six months later and then seventeen and a half percent twelve months later. Think this Cana- tailing and the reason it's telling to me is simply this. These are scary things for anybody. Sure correct in so the emotion that we were talking about with Benjamin Graham really feeds into these this analysis. You know once we get an idea what we're dealing with you know and let's let's look at the facts right now. We understand what this disease is. We know how to treat it. We know how to prevent it. Okay washing our hands and social distancing and all these different things. I don't know that we do completely understand because I keep like saint earlier. I've heard it's airborne of heard it surface based and I. I don't know that we understand what I do. Think is that it is going to the measures that the government and the public have come together. I think that it's GonNa come to a an an NCAA as painful as that was for. All of us sports fans hobbling the tournament. Those kind of measures I think are going to really cut down in the education once again. The public has been educated about isolates public. Or what is it social discourse social distances thing? I think that the other countries where it's going rampant. I don't think that they have st- because it seems silly. Why did they cancel the final four? When that's what three weeks of why? Why are they that far out keeneland? They've suspended for a couple of weeks. That starts April. Why are we? Why are we doing this as far out? Well IT IS PREVENTATIVE BEFORE. It is an epidemic in this area correct and nationally. So I'm not as concerned from that. Were getting ahead of it we are. We really don't know what we're dealing with if we don't take precautions. Yeah I mean as far as a vaccine. We're not there yet. They're looking probably a year so right on a vaccine. But we're like you said we're we're taking the measures the social dissing the self quarantine all those things to help. Contain it and thank God. They're getting the testing out there on a mass scale now. I do think that that's something that should have been done three weeks ago. Which is I do think God. They're getting it out now yes. So there's there's good news yes things. You're going to get better not worse run. That's my message. Well in in from the market perspective I mean. Obviously we have to caveat. No past performance is not indicative of future performance. That's correct but the companies themselves. What has changed with them right? That's you know that's what we're always. We're going back and challenging feces and You know communicating that to our clients. Hey everybody I'm going to close it out today. You've been listening to the Tom debris powered by depre- financial. Hey give us a call. You can find us on facebook. You can also look at our website at DuPrey financial dot com. Come see us. Thanks for listening right now.