Tuesday 16 June
You're listening to the briefing. I broadcast on the sixteenth of June, two thousand and twenty on monocle twenty four. The briefing is brought to you in association with Lance. As part of the programs partnership with audience, we bring you stories that demonstrate his commitment to securing people's lives. After all for one hundred and thirty years all around the globe, Alleanza has been working hard to do just that to give courage to its customers for what's ahead. Because, `alliance knows how important it is to have a fair partner, your side who provides solid and sustainable solutions. Leon strives to do it right we've. Passion every day. Stay tuned to the briefing. Dear, exactly how allience does it? An alien for life. Hello and welcome to the briefing. Coming to you live from studio one here Midori, House in London I'm Andrew Coming Up North Korea not content with suspending communications with south. Korea blows up the building in which they were supposed to take place. We'll have the latest also ahead. We do not want to impose our vision. Our approach others at the same time Lee would not like when we are imposed corologis. Corologis they're our society. Nation does not suppose we'll hear from Poland's under secretary of state as the president. His party supports ramps up his anti lgbt rhetoric. We'll hear from Al Bureau. Chief as the city decides whether to keep its governor and hello. I'm fitna was device share. Kanobi here, telling you why? The Oscars had to change the date, and if that's going to influence other award shows like the granny's. All that coming up right here on the briefing on monocle twenty four. And Welcome to today's edition of the briefing with me. Andrew Miller last week North Korea through one of its periodic tantrums in the direction of south. Korea announcing that it would disconnect various avenues of cross-border communication today North Korea has underscored whatever its point is rather more dramatically blowing up the building. Nikei Song, which contains or perhaps more accurately contained the cross border liaison office. There has been a concurrent. Concurrent uptick in bellicose language from Pyongyang as well, the morning edition of road on Sinmun, faithfully reports that our army is fully ready to go into action as well as harvest in full swing and John, Yang Vegetable, greenhouse, joining me now to discuss the former Rav of the latter is gone Everard UK Ambassador to North Korea John First of all. What was the Crossbow Liaison Office in case on? Eight was. The September twenty. Four south agreements to facilitate better contrast between North and south There was supposed to be all kinds of corporation projects. New Relevant reports on the new roads to I'm so that there's a small bureaucracy was set up to to miserable. This I'm that was to be based in case on so the big full story building to take officers and a fifteen story building next to it to provide comfortable fats for the South Korean officials who positive process. I. I commend listeners to lost tweaks foreign desk, explaining which outlined the origins of the current row, which is over activists, using balloons to float anti-regime messages from South Korea into North Korea. How did we get from that to this? I. I think you'd take it one step back right at the beginning of run at the end of May. It became clear that north. Korea, after a long period had actually works out its new foreign policy at any given up on South Korea. It hoped that under these ten twenty eighteen agreements putting simply lots of money would be coming its way, but the South Koreans could the projects because of the United Nations sanctions to which schools that balance like everybody else. The North Koreans got more and more more and more angry and I think a big launch of balloons carrying not just. What the North Koreans, called propaganda while the loan. Just call information about North Korea and. baas chocolate. I'm thinking bills into the northwest. That was probably just a law. Stroll a the North Koreans will be getting more angry the for a long time and the clan a week ago that they regard the south now as an enemy. That's to say that the sometime period is to the. So where is North Korea going with this now? Because the the balloons for example seems to have been down, or at least South Korea has wearily promised that they will take steps to stop the balloons. Obviously a significant escalation blowing up liaison office possibly more well as symbols go, it's. It's kind of tough to beat A. Where does North Korea want to go with this? What are they hoping to accomplish? Firstly. They do want the blue largest to stop and I think if there. Is We can expect to see further resolute action is north like to quit against South Korea. The problem. This is how we balloon launches. Although. Peasant Mundi signed up. in the Pyongyang Declaration to stopping them. In fact, he cont feed them. Expression is enshrined in the South Korean Constitution and several attempts to make it illegal to look the north of founded. The people wouldn't get passed by Congress so it's a tight and the organizers of these launches have already said that Bam `fiddlesticks, they all the blues they like. What's this space, so we know how to do with the. Building that the north I think is just trying to wind the south up it hoping that it can break the the South Korean government. I'm force it finally to break United Nations sanctions, and to give the north all the money it was promised in the Pyongyang Declaration the noises coming down to South Korea fought in response to blowing. The there's this suggests that the north may have miscalculated. It is of course very far from the first time. That North Korea has thrown a fit of this magnitude in the direction of South Korea, so it may be tempting to think that we have seen in heard all this before, but there is a distinguishing feature I think of this particular one, which is the increasing prominence of Kim. Jong Eun Sister Kim Yo Jong. What are we to make of that? Do you think? Basically the questions. No, Iraqi House theanswer. Chairman Kim Commute trouble on. The public. Asians like politburo meetings for months and months now lots of speculation. He's sick recovering operational, whatever it might be used to go around on the spot guidance diversity. He's doing that and instead his sister keeps issuing these statements, so she has grown immensely empower whether she is becoming a rival to Kim's on whether they've worked out as a brother, Sister Double Act or whether she is essentially an insurance policy, just in case for some reason Kim's on departure scene. We simply don't know but. The statements putting out do suggest that she's in any way a soft touch, but just as a final thought they as you correctly pointed out South Korea's options in terms of. Stopping. The balloon launches may be limited, but assuming they are interested in trying to persuade north. Korea to walk back up from where North Korea has got to what diplomatic options does. South Korea have right now? Not a whole lot. The one thing that would probably caused the north to back would be to get moving on one or more of the projects promised in the Pyongyang Declaration give the North helped to revive is decrepit railways roads. They're supposed to be building ships in the North Korean port of Nampo together. Any one of those projects I it came to life would probably save the north-south relationship, but they would of course reach United Nations sanctions the southwest corporate in Iraq and a hot place John ever thanks as always joining us. You're listening to the briefing on monocle twenty four. You're listening to the briefing with me. Andrew Miller. One of the many events postponed by the COVID, nineteen pandemic walls, Poland's presidential election, originally scheduled for May tenth, and now occurring on June, twenty eighth the campaign, the incumbent Andre Duda has done little to reassure observers already concerned by the illiberal nationalistic turn Poland has taken on his Walsh, and that of the ruling law and Justice Party depressingly unsurprisingly. President Duda has decided that it is politically profitable to take a hard line. Line against lgbt rights, which he has compared to quote a foreign ideology, unquote, not usually rhetoric, which goes anywhere good. Well earlier I spoke to village Blonde Ski Under Secretary of State at Poland's Ministry of Foreign, affairs began by asking about Poland's response to covid nineteen especially in the wake of a statement by the European Center for Disease Prevention and control to the effect that Poland and Sweden of the only two EU countries who have not yet passed the covid nineteen peak. I don't think desertion is quite correct. While trend, itself might not be declining as fast as we would like it to see. It's worth considering the number US and the numbers intolerant or the low, if you compare it to most of the out big European countries. Still Below fifteen hundred of active cases and we'd never therapy. TOUSANDS thousand skate cases overall so now it's less than half of its of the active cases which we manage to do from the very beginning is to introduce the restrictions which were very strict at first days, so that we do not have a spike in new infections, and that was a that that approach was quite successful. Of course, it takes longer than we would like it to, but it's still the daily numbers that the record number was a thing on the six hundred and we are are quite stable in. In regards so in general the way we approach, it is considered a quite positive. Well. One of the consequences of Poland's lockdown was of course at the presidential election was postponed. It is back on June. Twenty Eighth D. think polls reassured that be safe, not just a vote, but to attend any pre-election events is. Is it something you're going to be able to do? Without risking another spike would definitely will be advising to take all the precautions necessary to wear face masks to keep distance in public to use senator gloves or infections on the spot and police stations and in general. We have been lifting these restrictions older public lasers like in shops, churches faces where people gather, and it seems that is relatively under control, so whether on concerns Kohl's and that's why we introduced on the much larger scale than before vote by mail mechanism, and if anyone is concerned, they are able to exercise the rights through post office, so we think it should go more or less plan and the basic. Basic Rights of of the people to exercise their right to votes would be observed as an under secretary of state at the Ministry for Foreign Affairs. Do you ever find yourself getting help to put a nervous about? The image of Poland gets projected abroad during Polish elections in particular when I think it's fair to say some of the Lauren Justice parties. Less tolerant attitudes tend to get spoken out loud. I mean not that concerned about this. Because I know that many of the reports are accurate, all Cimpian true, so I'm not Sur really that much bothered by. It's of course I would like it very much to look different, but at the same time I understand that when our government is a conservative government and most of the governments in Europe and also the. The media that torture the the politics are liberal. There will always be some form of criticism. So this is politics, and we have to live with that. The Media Vo Accurately reporting. ARE THEY NOT President? Andre dudas remarks about Polish schools teaching LGBT issues. He talked about gay marriage, being part of what he called a foreign ideology. What does he mean by that? I didn't really hear remarks about foreign ideology, but I definitely show you that in the Polish constitution it's expressed their heads and we have. Established, a marriage as a union between men and women, and this is all the efforts to protect the constitution perfectly in line with this basic regulation. So when we speak about any attendance ads trying to circumvent, it's this would smeets and from from our. Perspective this will not be approved. Does it not concern you though that? Poland does end up getting perceived as somewhat illiberal and unreconstructed, especially in the context of Europe, where even countries which had a similar conservative Catholic heritage to Poland say Spain Portugal Ireland have got past this. Must what exactly this is this past? This strange hang about which people can get married in which people can not. I think this is quite clear. From from our perspective, free believes that the values on upon which our Constitution is based should be protected that we should not be changing this and. Most of our society supports it so I. Do not foresee any change disregard. We understand that there are different approaches are across various countries, but we do not want to impose our vision. Our approach others at the same time. We would not like when we are in I. That our society nation does not support again. Returning to how Poland is represented overseas as a consequence of the way that your party has governed. Do you get worried for example by Poland? Slumping in measures like the World Press Freedom Index. It was eighteenth in the world in two thousand fifteen. It is now fifty nine, and that is a collapse which coincides precisely with your party's time in office. It is true and again. This is unfortunately very biased very inaccurate, and this was a debate about this about this chart about the striking. Prompted a couple of weeks ago, which is funny, because when in twenty, fourteen on twenty thirteen? Exactly A- which that happens, we actually had very serious problem sweb freedom of speech. We have media officers raided by police or why prosecutions office when certain newspapers publishing reports critical of them of done ruling party of than governments, and despite the outrageous events, Poland still was. Tire was still we're still I. think maids. It's one point tire in the in this chance. Currently we have not suspicious. Our government is criticized on daily basis we have. A to ninety percents of the media against US everybody's allowed sex assigned the right to freedom of speech. New Media critical of government creates database. Nobody is having any problem with that of course I would like. It's very much to be different. I would like the media landscape not to be biased as it is, but that's the facts, and then we are being criticized as a country in which the free speech is somehow endanger. This is completely not true just as a final thought I want to look. Look at how you see Poland evolving over the next few years, and how you see the law and Justice Party evolving D think it's fair to characterize Lauren justice yet as an out and out eurosceptic party you will, of course be aware that the relationship is not good. The European Parliament's repertoire on Poland Sophie has said Poland has become a travesty of democracy I is this a an argument that you are going to keep having or do you think Lauren Justice and the EU can be reconciled? I don't think there is a need to reconcile between law injustice, or between Poland and the year I. Think we speaking about euro-scepticism. We might be a little Brussel skeptic at times. Especially, we can be skeptic about approach that certain institutions of you are exercising the competences, but in general it's difficult to find more tro European society done that Poland's and this has been a constant for last decade in half and I. Don't see any changes in dot coming anytime soon. In fact, any government that would be a unser European that promotes dissolution of European neon are leaving year in Poland. This government would be ousted in the week. This this would never get any sports of course in politics. You never. You're never able to agree on all issues, so we have. With with Brussels Alderman, other member, having a having them their issues as well on monetary issues on the economy, another another things, but this is just how how this works and I think this is good for Europe in this dialogue in this constructive conflict signs, but this is still something which which which brings us forward and I think at some points. Everybody will get used to that. This is politics. You need to fight for your rights. The Paul Blonde Ski Under Secretary of State Poland's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Earlier. You're listening to the briefing on monocle twenty four. As part of the programs partnership with Liens, we have bringing you stories that demonstrate alliances commitment to securing people's lives. Often. POLLYANNAS has been working hard to do just that. To give courage to its customers for what's ahead. Because allience knows how important it is to have a fair Paul at your side. Stay tuned to the briefing to hear exactly how. Does it. An alliens for life. You're listening to the briefing on monocle twenty four in a parallel universe. Tokyo Governor Eureka. K. would be look looking forward to welcoming the world for the Olympic Games next month. She may still get the chance on July fifth. Tokyo's voters will decide whether to extend the tenure of the city's first female governor on joined with more on the campaign from Tokyo by Monaco's Asia editor and Tokyo Bureau Chief Fiona Wilson. Festival Fiona two, the governor's current record before the pandemic struck. How will she thought be doing? Well. She's A. She's a French character very strong personality she's. She won by a landslide in two thousand sixteen, so she did win the popular vote and she's often seen as quite popular structured. I mean so very interesting career a politician for a long time in the same parties Shinzo up, as she resigned to stand as governor, and the party did not endorse Oh. There's always been this tension ever since between her and Shinzo Bay and the LT P, the party they shared, but looking further back in her career, she started out as a journalist. Arabic speaking journalists. She interviewed all sorts of interesting people, so she's had a very very long career, but she's also very good communicator. which is where she She usually wins out I, think! In the pandemic, obviously a huge challenge for government at all tees in all kinds of places, but in a city like Tokyo as vast and as densely packed as it is a particularly stiff one. How has she responded to it? Well I think the general feeling is. He's done very well, and certainly she seems to have done better in the public's eye. Then Shinzo. Abe She was very decisive early on. She was calling to the citywide lockdown Shinzo up. On bit uncertain I think he was a bit hesitant about shutting down the economy, whereas K. was just absolutely no qualms. We need to shut the place down and as you've seen the the the result seemed to be pretty good Tokyo's really go with very very low numbers. Of Infections and continue to emerge now slowly, and it's a situation. She's also controlling and she's trying to keep a sort of iron grip on it, and she's also saying that will be off if she's elect reelected, that would be part of her program to to prepare Tokyo for another wave. On that subject of the relationship between her and Shinzo by you're quite right that there has been a degree of tension. Does that still exist because? The noticeably not fielding Challenger. Absolutely does exist, and that does no point in them fielding a challenger. She's you know she's. She's a conservative. She's not coming from us. Sort of left wing radical point of view. She's definitely she shares a lot of the same views as Shinto. Are you know? Fairly nationalist on certain positions, so she's not that different in a way and I think the feeling is. They don't want to be trounced by her again. She one very very decisively over the LT PS candidate in two thousand sixteen, against should very well in the two thousand seventeen assembly elections I think the LDP thinks that the moment they've got to be seen to be focusing on handling the pandemic situation and getting involved a spot with the governor of Tokyo would be would be pretty unseemly, but sadly I wouldn't say that they've made up those two. Definitely, the tension is is crackling and you know I. She spoken about in the past. She said I feel like a middle manager. Sometimes, in in fact, she's running this enormous city and she doesn't want to be patronized by. Shinzo obey so. She's talked about the the iron plate of Japan rather than the glass ceiling. We'll just as a final four. Don't if she's not going to be running against the EPA. Who is her most plausible challenger? Well. It has to be said she's very far ahead. I think she probably will win. But those Kenji to nominee. It's an Amir. WHO's a lawyer He's being supported by opposition parties. You've got the former vice governor of Komotini Prefecture in the south, pretty effective, interesting wildcard emerge jus-. Just this week is Taro Yamamoto. Who is an actor who's become a politician? He's a real firebrand ferry radical anti-establishment. He said the first thing he would do if he's elected is canceled. The Twenty Twenty Games so that that was his position, so he's setting himself against Koi K. right from the GEICO I mean he would win, but it's interesting I think there is a bit of a mood. People are fed up with the establishment and he's the anti-establishment candidate. Fiona. For Joining Walls Monocle Asia editor and Tokyo Bureau. Chief Fiona Wilson. You're listening to the briefing on twenty four Time now to get the latest business news on joined once more by Bloomberg's and pulse you and the global stocks roller coaster continues today. It's going upwards, I think. Yes is last week we saw a bit of a pause in the rally era listeners. You haven't been paying attention. We've seen a tremendous rally in stocks since that massive sell off at the beginning of the pandemic, the off bottom now to the end of March, roughly coinciding with the UK went into lockdown, but April may source stocks, so we had a better pause today stocks up heavily and the start for roughly the same reason they've been up most the time which has to do with stimulus. Bloomberg's being reporting. The trump administration is preparing a trillion dollars in infrastructure spending the idea being that you can boost America's infrastructure crumbling in many places and also. The economy, which has taken a massive knock from the corona virus. Now we, the the Department of Transportation would reserve most of the money for traditional infrastructure like roads and bridges, but also setting aside funds for five G., wireless infrastructure and for rural broadband, the president trump understandably keen to rev up the American economy the strength of the economy. The great jobs market was a key plank of his reelection campaign in November. Not As gone rather badly. Recently, the polls nearly all the national polls the moment showing Democrat Joe Biden, the presumptive nominee ahead of president trump including in a number of those key states, the president trump unstoppably CAIN to get the economy going again. One of course key problem is how to how to pay for this There's been talk in the past of an increase in the federal gas tax, but that's very controversial. Americans logic there because and not used to pay very much tax on their petroleum. So. Congress so far. not showing too much concern about the trillions of dollars of extra boring, but we'll have to see how this is painful, but stocks rallying today, but there's some less welcome news here in the UK. Yes some pretty grim economic data out of the UK today, jobless claims in the United Kingdom more than doubled to almost three million joined the virus lockdown. Some one half million people claiming jobless benefits during just April and May almost all of those people choosing to become inactive, choosing becoming inactive rather than unemployed the lockdown, actually surprisingly leaving the unemployment rate the headline on Paul. Unemployment rates unchanged. We had GDP data recently, showing the UK economy declined by twenty percent. In April in what could be the deepest slump for three hundred years here from the Bank of England later on this week they're expected to announce a further expansion in their assets purchase program, but some pretty shocking labor also separates numbers today on the number of people being furloughed nine million jobs in the UK currently furloughed. That's around forty percent of all private sector employees, currently having the wages paid by the government and another two and a half million self employed people also receiving support that's a total of eleven and a half a million people and the cost of that so far. Has Come to twenty eight billion pounds so some pretty stock numbers on the UK economy today you in parts. Thank you as always. That was Bloomberg's you and listening to the briefing. This is the briefing with me Andrew Muller now. The two thousand and Nineteen two, thousand and twenty. In fact, that's what year it is is relation of the Academy Awards was one of those marquee events, which by dint of happening in February just made it under the descending covid. Nineteen Portcullis much like Indiana Jones escaping the booby-trapped Peruvian temple, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has nevertheless chosen not to push. It's luck further, and has preemptively decided to pump next to us. Distribution of Oscars to April the eligibility period will also be shifted well, joining me with more on. This is Monaco's awards desk chief Fernando. Augusta Pacheco Fernando. What changes are the Oscars making? Well entered. The main change of course is the eligibility of film so for example for you to be well for him to be nominated. Next year we're has to be released from the first of January this year to the twenty eighth of February next year, and a reminder that original date for the Oscars next year was the twenty eight February, and of course this happened because so many films. have been delayed so they. Kademi decided to open an exception. Even though that's not the first time they had to delay, but I mean for completely different reasons one year nineteen, thirty eight. They had flooding in La. A think. The Oscars, this was supposed to happen on the day of the assassination of Dr Martin Luther King and the final one was when there was an attempted assassination of President Ronald Reagan so they kind of know the deal, but it's the first time that this is happening because of a pandemic and also Andrew the academy wants to be more diverse so there including a few changes so for example for best film now there will be ten nominees for best film every single year before the number. Number varied between six and ten, but you know every year was was different, but this year decided you know what let said the number ten, and hopefully the nomination would be more diverse as there are other changes to come, but for next year those are the main changes. Do you anticipate a more widespread Risha drooling of award season? Because they do tend to all happen more or less the same time, everybody else will be thinking about this. Will others go where the Oscars have led? I was thinking about this thing. The film awards certain in the Golden Globes. I mean. I, don't think they said anything officially at but the grammys in the Amazon things a different story, first of all the Amazon supposed to happen in September, and it's still going ahead I'm sure there'll be. You'll be a different show than usual and the grammies. Usually happened earlier in the year as well, but but I think the world of music was not as impacted as being quite a few albums being released of course, it changed live performances, but not the way artists release their music so I. Think we're going to see a big impact on the film awards. You. What do you think is the right way forward here? Would you have kept the original date? Well, I understand why they changed the date. I think it's commercially would be better for Dan, but to be honest. I was kind of excited if the Oscars kept the date, because y because I think they would be almost forest to be a little bit more experimental because there's been some good films being released this year, we have films like buck without invisible man, the five bloods assistant. Many orders, but they are quite a lot of. They're smaller films. So perhaps the Oscars were thinking more. You know the commercial sense of things to be honest. Andrew I think. I would have kept the original data again. Nothing against the new, but you would be an interesting year if they haven't changed Fernando Augusta Pacheco Out, words desk, thank you for joining US studies all for this edition of the briefing. It was produced by Reese James and yelling go found the research was Charlie film mcchord and managed today. We'll SAM, impey the briefing tons tomorrow at the same time midday London I'm Andrew. Thanks for listening. MM-HMM!