Super Tuesday Recap: And Then There Were Two

Automatic TRANSCRIPT

A chair tax on tap with David Axelrod and Mike Murphy. Hey Acts Murphy here so excited we can talk all about the new resolves. We were going through here two days ago on very super Tuesday but I thought we could make a little news because I think I have found the macguffin. I think I've found the secret reason that Joe Biden came back from the dead and one we. We got a team of mathematicians at the University of Southern California. We pulled them out of the rocket lab and we got the Cray supercomputer fired up when we look at every single veritable of every single candidate. Yes their performance and guess what we found out? We found the determining factor. If you don't do the X. Files you literally combatants dead in surge out of nowhere who become runner the Democratic nomination. So it's the curse of death my friend if that must be thank you. I appreciate landscapes back to send them back to the rocket lounge way so I apologize to our listeners. We would have been on yesterday the day after Super Tuesday but we were busy burning all the old recordings of Downplaying Joe Biden's chances over what? What was that man? Have you ever seen your you know? We're a bunch of old codger. I've never ever seen anything like well. My soul on Tuesday I would say with. Of course the benefit of an eraser machine and Hindsight but seriously you know we both been at this. A while and there has been a pattern in the past and the old pattern. Was You breakthrough early? You ride a media wave if you can operate calls her and you sir forward less on advertising and money but more on success in the early states which is why people spend so much time and money in the early state so you know the guy who did. The most of that was mayor. Pete who came out of nowhere to win Iowa but he had that lightning bolt reading any credit or press attention for them. And then amy usurped. What looked like a big impressive media? Wave coming win in New Hampshire and then the media got a little bit hustled by Bloomberg. Who was a hypothetical candidacy? There was no voting involved but they saw the money and he got a lot of that media. Let's just the media. I mean it was polls as it was polling is well the media gotTa Hustle by polls. Yeah Yeah but the media's as we both know always more interested in polling numbers than anything else is kind of a weakness of the system. I used to joke around allowed. Fire ahead a red Chinese intelligence. I spent all my time. Bribing media pollsters. Because you totally can jerk Washington opinion around every every single day but anyway to get to my point then Joe who had a base his relationship for which I think he owes some thanks to President Obama and some tremendous thanks. Jim Clyburn with the African American Voting Block in South Carolina which showed up by the time the others had kind of been strangled out of money and Joe. Who was dead. Got That fifty thousand volt shock so this was just different than the past. Although you can't draw parallels is you know better than anybody. The two thousand eight You know another race where if you can split white voters and have strong strong African American support you do tend to do well in the Democratic nomination process so I think there's a new map going forward. That will be less about Iowa and New Hampshire more about a nationalized vote and blocks particularly African Americans. And maybe the Latino vote will become that you know homogeneous eventually The give the nomination. Okay everybody. That's it good night. Thanks for tuning. Sorry that was a little long no I I. I agree with With what you're saying. Let's let's let's take apart so let's do a little autopsy on how this all happened and then let's talk about What it means first of all. If you could trace a set of events the overarching thing I think is a really really do want to beat Donald Trump. I think Democrats are very focused on that Biden. Was The guy who they thought early could do that. He had a huge advantage. In that regard he started looking not very formidable and and and he was sinking After his After his Poor showings in in Iowa. New Hampshire then came the data And Nevada made a huge difference in two ways one is Bloomberg had to step out from behind the commercials at that debate Elizabeth. Warren eviscerated him He the the air went out of his very very expensive balloon. and then Bernie Sanders ran away with Nevada. And you'd think well that should have been a key success. No what it did was completely Hannah. Scary completely panic. Democrats who feared Bernie Sanders didn't support. Bernie Sanders worried about Bernie Sanders ability to win and they looked around and all of a sudden Joe Biden started looking better and they just needed some sign that he could do this. then come. South Carolina Biden had a decent debate in South Carolina. But also he got the endorsement of Congressman Jim Clyburn which turns out to be one of the few endorsements that one can confer or the few people can confirm endorsement in this country and actually command a measurable effect. I think he probably doubled. Biden's a lead in South Carolina also had this extraordinary moment in South Carolina when a man talked about his wife who had been killed in the mother Emmanuel Shooting in his empathy Was in full display. It was Biden at his best. We've talked about that last week. And and then all this wave of people dropping out in his favor. You know one thing as you'll remember with a great deal of anguish back to two thousand and Sixteen. Republicans didn't do was consolidate around a candidate and to take down. Trump cancelled. Trump ends up winning the nomination with less than the majority of Republican voters behind him. Democrats did unify a mayor Pete Star at the mayor. Pete dropped out door. I by AMY closure dropped out endorsed Biden Beto O'Rourke showed up on the stage in Texas and endorsed Biden. All of a sudden Biden looked like a safe harbor So in addition to everything that you said which is the he did do well with with Waitz one whites everywhere but Vermont in the aggregate. He did do well with rural conservative. Whites were Bernie had been strong for years ago. He dominated fifty six to seventeen among African Americans. And He. He did well. Enough among Hispanics in the states where that mattered. So now it's a whole different deal man. Yes yeah and I look I. I agree with your run through. I just add one more thing which is Biden deserves credit for his resilience and for a few of those moments of South Carolina and for cultivating that long trusted relationship with Jim. Clyburn is the new Mayor Daley but on election night I think he forgot to think. The HUGE TITANIC FORCE AND. I I just say this tongue in cheek of not burn no absolutely because a lot of organizing force of the wind. Kurds was not burn. He between that South Carolina African American voting block and just hanging in there even when there was barely Paul's became that guy as you said the others consolidated quickly. And so you know we found that something we have also said here. That Bernie has a bit of a ceiling was true. And so now you know as the guy especially a. Bloomberg getting out. He's a pretty strong position. Although I'll keep saying there was a reason. Joe Lost some of those early primaries. It didn't have African American voters in them to other white candidate so now operation by two point Oh has to continue in full swing kind of speed. Their operation up to the opportunity that they they clearly have. There are a lot of reasons to believe that he's on a good path. Now and Bernie Sanders. People are not going to be happy when they hear me. Say the next thing but they should remember that I was saying I was named saying Joe Biden and he took off like a rocket. So this harbinger that get in on that. I predicted Bernie can never win Bernie's collapsing. So I'll talk like there. But there are so many signs that should be worrisome to Bernie Sanders and the biggest one is how much he's underperforming where he wasn't two thousand sixteen even in Vermont. What he was in the in the fifties in terms of vote he got eighty six percent in two thousand and sixteen in his home state. And a lot of this I think is a measurement of how much flow to him as a result of antipathy to Hillary Clinton. And you know. They're going to try and replicate that now intern. Biden into an exemplar of a failed establishment. Status Quo Bernie signal very strongly that he's going to go a on the offense there. What's different this time as you have the specter of Donald trump hanging over this whole absolutely absolutely and buy it? Looks like a winner again which that empathy is finally found is who he is and he's got his process message against you know I'm now the winner against trump. It's a strong a bunch of cards to halt Leno. Want to go through a few states here because I think there are a couple of things we can point out. Let's do the right Massachusetts. Can You believe at one Elizabeth Warren Third Place under all the rules of this that we grew up under it is time Elizabeth? It's time to get out. There's no candidacy there. She's going to get herself a primary for Senate. Well I think you know we. We may know by the end. We may know by the end of today. Yeah man by winning. I mean you know go Joko and of course Minnesota where I think amy help but I also think again not not Bernie help to laugh at. That was a win. You know people say well. What did the Buddha judge and closure exits mean if you look at polling in those two states before before those guys got out? Before South Carolina Joe Biden was nowhere. He wasn't in the picture There is absolutely no doubt where you see it in particular Massachusetts is in those suburban areas upscale suburban areas We're close we're we're we're close and particularly Buddha. Judge were were running a their their best And Biden beat sanders soundly. There and not just there but in in in in suburban areas around the country which has been a problem for sanders. He hasn't solved it just as he hasn't solved this problem with African American voters. Yeah no I totally agree but it and even the margins even out here in California. Where there's still a couple of zillion ballots well over a million to count from our mail in system. I will bet dollars to donuts at the last. Huge Chunk of late held absentee ballots. That were mailed member. You just have to post Markham. They don't have to get there in time on Monday on election day or even walked and dropped in those those are going to inch forward a bit for Biden. I doubt it will have a big delegate impact simply because we have this bonus delegates system. Here that you know is is Not Worth a lot of explaining other than if you win a big democratic. Cd like a Pelosi one. He gets seven. Dell's you win a Republican CD. Kevin McCarthy's you get four so Bernie will do well in some of those. What Biden will do well like the Karen Bass district down here in la which African American? So I bet. Biden picks up another point on his margin gets up to twenty six in. California which is a lot better than where he was. I think that actually the thing that saved sanders from more abject. Disaster was early voting. And you could really see it. Yeah you could see it in Texas Where the early vote came in first and he had a significant lead a on Biden and then as the evening wore on and same day voting started reporting the gap closed Biden past him. I'll give you an example. A friend of mine in El Paso home of Beto O'Rourke told me that Biden get seventeen percent of the early vote. That was what reported I. He got thirty nine percent of the same dave old that is a pure measure of the South Carolina and Post South County South Carolina Bounce for Biden so totally what saved Bernie Sanders In Texas from a deeper defeat what saved him in California from an even tighter raise was the fact that many people cast ballots early. And Look. I've been a proponent of early voting because I want to make it as easy as possible for people to vote but we see the downside of it as well. There are millions of people who cast ballots that probably they would not have cast if they had known who was viable. Come Election Day. That is totally right. There were people showing up at Lama. These early voting states I know in California wanting to like recant their ballot and switch. Which once you mail it does not happen. How about poor Mike? Bloomberg I guess poor and Mike Bloomberg or not to two words that you should probably us together you spend upwards of half a billion dollars all you get is American Samoa. Hearty Handshake Anna. Thanks for playing. It's Kinda. Yeah and by the way a northern. Mary ANA is coming up so I hope the Bloomberg guys remember. Turn off their machine. They're GONNA get an invoice for four hundred million more and another delegate so yeah I'll give Bloomberg one consolation prize. He did a Classy Swan dive. You know in terms of two minutes. After this thing happened he was out in behind by. Yeah which was the right way to do it. You know as opposed to going to confirm his advisors for a week and check the bumper sticker supply and all that crap he He took a fastball and got where he should be. Yeah Bloomberg was the most pronounced example of this consolidation affect among Democrats driven by trump. Right right by the way what a horrific week for trump he. The guy buys himself and impeachment trying to find out of the race You saw by the way that the ours in the Congress now said Oh. We're going to dust off the old uh hunter Biden invent very trouble at and had a good day very troubled. Apparently the deep deep deep threatening nature of Hunter Biden's relationships reoccurred to them about two. Am on Wednesday morning and now we're going to have a series of hearings. It'll be interesting to see how that all plays out in how people process that But it gets back to the point of again. Joe Is done really well here but JOE needs to up his game for the handle the legacy of what he's winning because some of this were forces these kind of like the guy who was in the In the row boat and the massive tidal wave picked him up and he wet but unvanquished. He wants up twelve hundred miles away the next morning. So yes it's an amazing survival story but it's not a tribute to rowing in. So he's got he's got to get ready. Look no one was harder on them on his campaign. On on the day of the on the day of the South Carolina Primary Jim Clyburn and many others have made this point. He needs to tighten up he needs to augment his campaign. He needs to us he now. Has this incredible array of surrogates and they need to be deployed because Biden snack and be able to carry the ball on his own. And what are the advantages? He has as there's some pretty powerful voices out there now who they can deploy. They have to do that in an organized way. You know what I'd I'd pitch if I were them. I'd put Smart Young Pete. Buddha judge in charge of the campaign who is politically very smart and capable and sends a nice generational message to and I think gets the voters. Joe Isn't getting. I doubt it. But he's got the skill set and he and network to help do Joe 2.0. That is what's needed so I tweeted that and I got a couple of letters stop. You're ruining my life. You know not from him but from other supporters but it would be good it would be in theory in practice the hard thing for anybody you know Anita Dunn there. Now she's capable But you know Biden has a very tight core people around him and this has been true for thirty or more years. I mean his sisters one of them Valerie and And Steve Rochetta's former chief of staff and Ted kauf Manley former interim senator who plays by. Who's been his friend for Forever Mitalent who's brilliant You know a a but but you know their relationship is such that. I don't know how much might can tell Biden Biden has the sort of core of people around him and everybody else to serve in the next ring. And so he's GonNa he's GonNa have to trust people more in. Yeah exactly that and Old-school Paul's are always like that and look for a good friend of mine. I think a lot of them. I think a lot of Donnellan. There's a lot of talent there but they just need to be honest and change their model in a in a fast evolution To be able to exploit this. And that's Hillary. It was hard to get her out of her on. How THAT WORKOUT? So well she built. She built concentric circles around her circle. Right right and that is That is always a little cumbersome thing so this is this is a test but I have to say you know by now As reading this morning he has to. He has to win fifty four percent of the remaining delegates to to get a majority and that didn't seem possible a week ago and what seemed almost certain a week ago was that Bernie Sanders would be a delegate leader and that Biden would be in. The question was how close could Biden? Stick to him now. It looks like Biden could actually achieve a majority of delegates to get fifty four percent of the rest of Sanders would need to get fifty seven. That sounds like a negligible difference. It's really not. It's SIG significant difference. And when you look at the array of of states ahead ackley California Texas were the states were Biden was really going to run. I mean Sanders was really going to run up his numbers. The fact that Biden one Texas and is hanging close in California is really the worst news out of a super Tuesday for standards because from arithmetic standpoint. Not Clear where he's going to pick up from here right. Exactly when you look at that counter you can see that. Biden. It's a better calendar theoretically for Biden Than Bernie and it was funny when we were talking on a after a Sunday after South Carolina. You know the the old conventional wisdom was. Oh Bernie's GONNA rope three hundred delegate lead and we're both suspicious about that and I was saying eighty to one hundred twenty. I think delegate lead and I thought it was going way out on a limb and I think you were kind of in the same place that would be a lot less than three hundred and you know what felt like going out on a limb before Pete on Sunday now looks like way too conservative. And if you look at this counter. I mean people are GonNa say Oh Bernie one Michigan. Which is I think the biggest thing coming up but yeah you WANNA by about eleven votes against Hillary and I think now you've got to give the advantage there to Biden of course Mississippi. The advantage is going to be Biden and Missouri. I would guess the advantages by maybe Washington state for Bernie but next Tuesday looks like more momentum to me unless something huge happens in the race. What what's your take get? No I agree with that. I think everybody's GonNa be watching Michigan. Because it is a midwest industrial state this the argument from Bernie Sanders has been. He's the guy who can carve into these states because he reaches into the white working class communities more readily than other candidates. The fact is that wasn't true on Super Tuesday by the way Gretchen whitmer the governor of Michigan Endorsed Biden today. So the -dorsements parade continues. We will see what that means but And you know something else occurred to me today. Which is Well let's talk. I'll make this point after after the setup a lot was made on election night. About how Little Biden had spent in the Super Tuesday states? What we really what we really saw. And it's not the first time because Donald trump proof the same thing if you can command if you get on an earned media cable TV. Social Media Wave. That completely overwhelms paid media. Only you're on the other side of that in two thousand and sixteen and certainly the Bloomberg folks saw that here that you know that the compression of the schedule from Saturday to Tuesday and you know the huge amount of coverage that Biden. God Was really really important. I wonder a Mike As this sadly as this corona virus thing Ratcheted up how you know how much coverage this race is going to get a moving forward as compared to where we just were. I mean I may be wrong about this but I that's a disadvantage for Bernie Sanders. Yeah because it tends to freeze things in place. I want to hang a lantern on that because we know the model is generally ride the wave and while that was out of favor as I said before in Iowa New Hampshire for various reasons it sure worked in South Carolina Rolling into Super Tuesday where earned media swaps advertising. That's one reason. I always thought the Bloomberg strategy of start late was so hard to do because it's hard to win the Oscar when you're not in the movie and the movie is the big four states in Nevada and South Carolina. This time became that that media generator and that the name. Id that you can build with. Advertising quickly melt away and I think I think that happened to Bloomberg so I'm with you now that we're kind of falling down the stairs here with so many states so quickly. I mean I think we got about nine hundred delegates in the next two Tuesdays. I can't imagine unless Biden has a nuclear level gaffe. Anything happening dramatically upset the race. I mean there might be stories at the margin. That'll that'll you know tip. The North Dakota primary a little more Bernie's way or whatever but I think it's hard to have another moment. Like key. Didn't South Carolina just by the way the the the counters and the other thing I'd say and I'll bet you're gonNA agree with this because we're both media hacks I can't turn on cable. Tv network. I work at the network. You work at An exception we're polluting the airwaves. Or maybe a few other practitioners. All I ever hear for Year is. It's all about the organization troops on the ground so it's massively underrated and yet again it gets disproven. Joe Biden was winning. States barely flew over. Yeah let alone did anything there. But for some reason the process media won't let that go the cynical may say that's why he well in those states but I think that's unfair but the no. Listen I said the other night on. Tv Organization is like the kicking team. It's like the field goal team In a campaign you gotta drive the ball down far enough so that the kicker can actually kick a field goal and and everything else is what drives the you down there. You Organization won't save you. Organization could make the point or two difference between winning and losing right and it's an amplifier it. When you're doing well you do weller. It helps success grow by the way on Bloomberg to wonder how different this race might have been if his people had not joined that debate if they just would not adding until after March third I wonder if his run would have continued It certainly might have been a different picture right now. But that's campaigns man they dare on things that in the moment don't seem as momentous as they will be but that that that is that will go down as a decisive decision that he'll help Joe Biden in his race in his race. Here let me just chime in with that. I think that's true about the debate. But fundamentally as long as a resurgent Biden was in the race off South Carolina Nevada. The curtain was dropped for Bloomberg. Even with a better debate. He might have won a few more votes. He made a big bet. Yeah Billion Dollar Bet on Biden failing by neg zeal exit exit Bloomberg. So let's talk about their strategies. Moving forward Bernie was. Can I erupt you for one? Minute acts I literally have a NEWS FLASH COMING IN ELIZABETH WARREN JUST ANNOUNCED. He's dropping out so she got our memo. And you gotta give her an a plus for fighting. She never gave up. She's a contender and early on. She she did it well but that second. Look at the insurance plan Didn't do it so this was inevitable. She had to do it. She clearly wasn't going anywhere in the race and losing her home state. Badly Was a clear sign of that. But Elizabeth Warren ran a remarkable race when she was written off early. She is a brilliant person. She developed some very very very interesting policy she ran into a buzzsaw call. Bernie Sanders couldn't outmaneuver him for the leadership of the Left. But Elizabeth Warren ran a very good race and everyone should recognize that. Yeah look I thought. At the beginning she had a pretty good stranglehold on the race which she created herself and put herself in a great position to win but that second look on Medicare for all put her on a downward spiral. I think there were some strategic mistakes and she could never quite get out of it sometimes. She was a little too clever cynical by half. I think she was a contender. And I my head tips to anybody with the guts to go get on the ballot for president. So I doubt we've heard the last of Senator Elizabeth Warren. Well we have it because the most important question now is who will. She support moving forward if anyone if she goes with Joe Biden out be tremendous boost for him but signifying a figure from the left. Yeah embracing him If she goes with sanders it could enhance his His his move to broaden his appeal. So we'll wait and see huge point. It's either a real a real signal. That Biden is the person if she goes with him or she goes to Bernie. He's got a new very effective attack. Surrogate just ask Mike Bloomberg. So we're wait to see what happens. so moving forward Bernie. I was about to say about it. Settle as far spacesuit a very clear on election night. I haven't heard that one before how he was going to proceed. He he's getting out the Red Hammer Biden's now the corporate tool and you can tell. He likes Joe. So it's hard for trade. The bankruptcy bill which warrant criticized by non but not lately. Social Security. He's already running. Ads Attacking Biden for suggesting The freezing of social security part of austerity measures in the in the past trade big. You know he's going to go after him on that and being supported by billionaires argument that let's face it may be abetted by spending that. Mayor Bloomberg will be doing in the coming months to help to help Biden. He also did a curious thing which is the day after he got his butt kicked again across the country among African American voters he start running an Obama and words of praise from Obama for Bernie Sanders from. I don't know where and a montage of photos of them together. He is courting a story here because in fact it was true that Bernie Sanders was looking for an opponent. Barack Obama for President Obama in two thousand eleven And he And he you know I mean they they were they worked together and many things they were but they also had deep philosophical differences and sanders made that clear and wanted to primary punt in two thousand eleven so the fact that he's now running Obama ads. It's curious to me and I wonder whether he's going to buy some trouble with curious. The Great Political Word Kid. I find it curious. Well perfect topic for you and Joe to discuss on the X. Files see I'm trying thanks. We buried something on Warren. Apparently no endorsement in her withdrawal is that right. I haven't seen the I haven't seen the details. I just know she's out but you know that's a that is an interesting tell. Yeah Yeah you know speaking of the X. Fight No Pun intended. Bernie's GonNa try to start with Biden you know. Some of those things can cut like social security. What's your view on? How Biden not handle it? Because Bernie has an army of precious millennials. Who you need in the general election. Think JOE IS MR old politics. So you've gotTA somehow slight Bernie down without tear staining the Shaker Vera hipster liberal t shirts at populated army. Because you don't want those pouting voters to to hate you as much as trump what would be your maneuver in the jungles of the Democratic primary to try to pull that off. Because I don't think Joe wants to be a punching bag on social security no but you got be a little careful with Bernie. 'cause you attack his voters. You're buying long-term trouble. I poke out my way through it. I wouldn't get into it. I just say because the fact is nobody really believes that Joe Biden doesn't support social security or believe in social security. Not Just bogart my way through it and say Look I've always supported social security And I WANNA make sure that social security is is strong available abundant for You know for for generations to come and that's a solemn pledge and it's been my work for fifty years you know and let Bernie I mean I would not I would just reassert my commitment. I wouldn't get into well. What what I meant then was out. I was Biden given his instincts. Goes to Goes to defense goes to the defense posture. I would not do that here. That's back to my point about Biden to point out to show little phonetic as Joe will be happy to give it to our speech on his simple historical legislative positions on On Social Security. And why once in a while he and the Republicans thought it was a good idea to slow it down so this is GonNa be a good test. Better Biden March fifteenth. There's a debate on CNN. Presumably everyone will show. They both will show up. It may be the last debate if Biden smart because if the DNC is smart if all they're doing is facilitating Yup Hand to hand combat between the Democrats. That probably doesn't serve the purpose of the of the larger question for you though just quickly on that in terms of DNC politics is. I don't know this in the actual Democratic National Committee those members which is a large and occasionally ungainly organization compared to the Republican National Committee which is smaller and just crazy But on the DEM side how many Bernie people do you think they have on the DNC? That'll put pressure on the leadership for more debates because there could be a politician politics. Yeah because they yeah they could. They could so that'll be you know you'll have to handle that. That's a terrible job chair. Always Hoping Committee so he'll have to. He'll have to navigate that just on the larger point of how by needs to appeal to some of these sanders voters. I have a concern and I've said this publicly About kind of in crushing sanders that you not crush the aspirations of these millions of young people who have responded to his message these kids and I work with them every day. And you do too at a you know you at USC at the University of Chicago. These kids want to change the world and they wanna to ch then they more than wanting to change the world. They feel a sense of urgency about things like climate change about inequality which growing inequality about social injustice You know frankly about the cost of education of a higher education. There are things that they feel a sense of crisis about and they feel like the system has not responded. And that's why they're so They'RE SO RESPONSIVE TO BURN MESSAGE. You don't have to adopt. Bernie's prescriptions. But you should adopt his sense of urgency because these are serious problems and you know so the message that I sent from if I were Biden to these young people is I share your sense of urgency and I share your sense of cause and that 'cause we'll continue and we will We will work with the You know with an urgent need On these things where we're not going to shove them aside. It's really important to I think. Show respect to these young people because they are providing some a moral leadership here In terms of some very very urgent very urgent problems young agree with that. I mean the greatest issue is Bernie has a cause based movement and Joe Biden has a campaign so joe needs to have what the European parties would call a youth effort at. You've campaign which isn't just tactics but it's to adopt the romance of a cause and make sure he's always shows a legitimate you know ear and listening to their concerns. Or He is politics incorporated. He's the man and then after the revolution fizzles out the next step is to just turn away from politics. And that is both morally to get the votes UNITA's president to govern and tactically to get the votes. You need to win a big deal for Joe. So they've got to be careful in how they handle this. I couldn't agree more. And he you know look. I thought the reason. He was so good in South Carolina in that speech that night he won was that he lifted it to a high moral plane. He talked not in sort of you know prosaic terms but in poetic terms about where we as a nation. Mario Cuomo said you campaign in poetry and govern in prose sometimes after all these years of Biden Biden resorts to pros And starts talking about the Legis his legislation and this subsection in that and so on. This is not a time for that. There's a sense of urgency here. That people feel that he needs to capture that and if he does that I think he's going to do well but the bottom line on all this is that He is a reflection of just. How dynamic this system is and you know one thing we've said we have said consistently is what this process requires humility two weeks ago. It looked like sanders was the clear front runner for the nomination and it looked like Donald Trump was sitting in a pretty good spot for reelection. I still think trump is formidable for reelection but look. He bought an impeachment as I said earlier to try and stop Biden. They don't want Biden. If Biden becomes the nominee I think that poses some real problems for Donald Trump. I agree with you but I think trump is L- little more vulnerable because I think the country wants to fire him and a less sticky candidate like. I'm hoping don't know yet. But Hoping Biden two point. Oh can be is is a very good thing for the Democrats very bad thing for Donald Trump. We should talk about the corona virus story which is obviously going to get worse. You know presidential campaigns Turn on things. You can't predict Barack. Obama got elected. I believe between September Fifteenth Two Thousand and eight and note September twenty six. When they had the first presidential debate September fifteenth was the day that Lehman Brothers collapsed and the financial crisis announced itself to America and how he handled that in that moment and how a John McCain handled it was very important and how that race turned out. People are watching president trump right now and how he handles. This is going to have a material effect. The impact on the economy also will But this could be very important and he's discovering that the old playbook may not work against a pandemic yacht. It's a little different opponent. You can't just have hannity come out against science. I agree this could be. And here's one just for you Jane Burn in the snowstorm Yes massive incompetence in issue that matters to people every day. We should set it up for people who aren't yet grappling with the social security issue In their lives Jane Byrne was the Was was a insurgent mayor of Chicago. Challenging Democratic Machine in nineteen seventy nine actually covered that race and She was considered the longest of long shots. And then it snowed for forty straight days in Chicago. And the you know the city that works didn't work right and Trying to clean up the snow couldn't clean up the snow so this is a really tough challenge for trump You can't tell people who are sick. You can't tell people who have lost a loved one that this is fake news. It's not fake news right and it's competence and that's where trump's biggest weaknesses because one. He's trump in two and you can ask anybody ever worked for him and business and to. He is surrounded by in many cases. Real drags or incompetence because real people either won't take the jobber. Trump won't tolerate them so the government is going to be stressed test. A little bit on what it can do. And why don't think it'll be a complete disaster. It's going to be sub par and that's GonNa reflect directly on the PODCASTS. Just at the time that a that a Democrat who you know at least can point to a long history and politics of having an impact and and you know not being incompetent is going to be. Most likely were see the opposition. So it's a bit of a perfect bad storm for the. Let's just add because I know what people are going to say and I and I agree with it. No one should root for failure on this. No one should failure. I hope that's I actually hope trump surprises on the high side. Because there's a lot of fear out there and there's a lot there's a lot of pain and there's GonNa be a lot more and what we really need now is sort of the thing. We don't expect which is a competent response and and truth and facts right the most important thing about a public health crisis and I worked at the White House through some of them. Is You need to let the experts speak. You need to give people the facts they need. You can't minimize This I'll have something say more to say about this last call so I hope they get their act together. Because there's a lot at stake here right and won one silver lining in this. Because we we don't want there to be any more pain than there has to be is one the. Cdc has not been political enough to be on trump's radar screen so it has not been molested by the administration and in many cases the frontline world here is going to be the county and state health departments which reflect a lot of essentially competent governors of both parties around the country. So I think. Luckily it's not all on the president's shoulders He's got some help which is good and as you said I agree. Let the pros do their thing. I I don't. I don't doubt that there are tremendous professionals in the government. I've worked with them on these public health issues. The questions just whether they'll be allowed to do their job and whether they'll be allowed to share news that the president doesn't want share for political reasons that that's going to be very important with that said Be well out there. And now we've got to pay a few bills so let's go to our sponsors all right. That was the magic jingle. It is time for the mail bag. I question from Baabda accent. I what happens to the delegates that a candidate has earned when the candidate drops out. Big Question yet. Is You know. These delegates are pledged And but if a candidate drops out there is a conscience clause in that would allow delegates to To switch their commitments at the convention So for example the Bloomberg delegates if if they if they exercise that they could vote for Biden. The warned delegates could vote for Bernie. But let me just say this. This was a really good question Probably Forty eight hours ago It seems to me that it's much less likely now that we're GonNa have a contested convention and more likely that there's going to be some sort of coalescence around a candidate and that game will have a majority Going into into the convention. I mean like all other predictions gigantic caveat associated with that. But the odds have gone up that you'll have more traditional Convention come and Milwaukee in July yet sure. Looking that way I'll I'll I agree with what you said. I don't know the democratic rules as well. I gotTA look at them. They're all freed in this on a second Palette. If there ever were a second pallet right also on the second pallet peruse that Bernie Sanders supporters helped right you The the super delegates come into play That is the seven hundred or so elected officials and party officials around the country who are essentially ex-officio members of the of the convention. It would be very advantageous for party harmony. If if Joe Biden is the nominee if he doesn't have to rely on super delegates to secure the nomination again I think it is increasingly likely that you're going to have a more conventional convention as it were in a in a first ballot victory for the nominee with everybody dropping out you know. Yeah and that's an important point of the super delegates. Come riding in from the political elite to Smash Bernie because he doesn't make it on the first ballot by one hundred votes That will be as we say in. The business bad optics. I'll just make a footnote from Republican. Land I have not yet studied up on my democratic delegate rules. I'm finishing Daas Kapital I but in the Republican World People Assume. The delegates are loyal to their candidate and a lot of states. The delegate bodies are elected by one process and then the primary tells them how to vote on the first few ballot so back to go back and she history back in the Dole days when I worked for him. We're always worried that a lot of the delegate bodies that were pledged Dole from primary results were actually Pat Robertson people so on a third ballot when they get the vote what they want. They weren't our people so there's some complexities in these open. Conventions about what the delegates hearts and minds versus who went to primary that instructed them to vote a certain way on the first ballot. All right so Allie has a question for you Murphy. Despite what seems like a preponderance of data. That photos are not ideological preferences. Eg voters suggesting that Burns their second choice to Biden or other saying that they want a woman at the top of the ticket while pundits including you guys always revert back to ideology as the guiding principle when discussing scenarios. We're not all pundits old pundits. There's a difference. The truth is off. Voters are unique so some people vote because they like the bumper sticker logo but generally ideology along with age and gender and race. All these things can pull on voters in different ways because it's a human business how they reacted the candidate. We just find. Historically in primaries voters do tend to have more ideological interest indefinite though trump blew that up our thing because he was more of a populist and a conservative and the old rules were the the conservative on the Litmus. Test issues would have an advantage with primary voters. So I think there's some slack in the system I think one thing the punditry world has gotten a bit wrong. This year is the kind of current fascination with gender as a driver of voter behavior. I mean more than half the the voters democratic process so far have been women but if they were voting on gender. Amy wouldn't be out and Elizabeth. Warren wouldn't be getting out today. So voters are more complex and sometimes the template that particularly inexperienced people doing punditry project on that one. I think one thing that needs to be studied as how women react to women can rights and whether there is some gender bias among some segments of of women to a female candidate school up. There's the music it's time for last. Call what he got X. so earlier I talked about how trump was handling the crisis. Last night he went on Sean Hannity's show and Ney said what the World Health Organization said their calculation that there would be a perhaps a three point four percent mortality rate associated with this corona virus. Which is a staggering number in a in a in a disturbing number and trump said. I don't think that's right. I don't believe that I think it's going to be much better than that. And this is what I was talking about. There is no value. You can't spin away a pandemic and Tr what has worked for trump in the past won't work here at he can actually do material damage. He encouraged in that same interview people to go to work his. If they feel sick his experts have said if you feel sick. Do not go to work. Because you'll spread this virus to another hundred people and so this is really serious and this is one you know you. You just pray that Donald Trump can put the country in public health ahead of themselves here and stop trying to spin the facts in a way that aren't warranted. Because there's there's there's real dangerous Jose with that couldn't agree more. Narcissism does not mix of science. The president needs to get out of the way and let the professionals handle it. My last call is just a quick comment on this new kerfuffle between the Democratic leader Chuck Schumer and Chief Justice Roberts of the Supreme Court the Chief Justice on behalf of the institution admonished Schumer for holding a campaign style. Event were invoked. The names of some of the Justices and talked about a pending vote. Schumer has been criticized for that. A politicizing the In a personal way the members of the court Schumer's defense is well trump. Does it all the time and I would say the Senator Schumer? You're you're right on that point but imitating president. Trump is not a step forward for anybody so I think The senator ought a step back and think that well he can say that yes. I'm being as bad as trump. That is not the appropriate way. Let's I think I think humor can do a better job of being more adult than the president and Making him is no step forward. So score me of Roberts on that and I wouldn't mind Robert Standing up for the court against the next time. Trump goes after Elena Kagan or somebody on the left. I agree with everything. You're saying Mike. I just a wish that the chief justice a were as mindful of all of and he has spoken out at times. I mean I give them credit for that. But no one has done more in terms of trying to of under my Undermining traditional integrity than donald trump's rue enough and he deserves to be called on it again and again and again our I brother well onto Ought to Super Tuesday to next week. We've got. We've got a series of Super Tuesday's here Super Tuesday so big. You can't even have it on one Tuesday. It is GONNA be incredible. We've got Idaho Michigan Mississippi Missouri Washington State and we will have the facts from Fargo North Dakota as well next week on another big Tuesday in the presidential race. Thanks for tuning into acts on tap X. Great to chat thanks brother next time

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