The Bettors Box MLB Betting Podcast August 15, 2019


Let's say you just bought a house. Bad news is you're one step closer to becoming your parents. You'll proudly along and see if anybody noticed you mow the lawn. Tell people to stay off the lawn compared to your neighbor's lawn and complain about having to mow the lawn again. Good news is it's easy to bundle home and auto through progressive and save on your car insurance which of course we'll go right into the lawn progressive casualty insurance company affiliates and other insurers discontent available in all states or situations well. Let's get everybody and thank you for joining me in the betters boxes bendable dot com and it'll be bending podcast for thursday august fifteenth. I'm your host. Adam burke this and every edition nations better box presented by our friends over at d._s. Ice sportsbook b._t._v. the number two hundred is that promo code one hundred percent deposit match. Most of the sports book one hundred percent a deposit match bonus for the live casino at g._s._i. It's only a game until you bet it well. We have been doing the monday thursday format here with better as fox but with the return of our daily shows beginning on monday the better sparks will only be on mondays over the next few weeks before we get into the n._f._l. N._f._l. regular season after that it'll be a lot of football on radio. I'll chat about baseball as i can on the shows but going forward here betters there's box on mondays before kyle hunter on the twenty seven or on the eighteenth. Excuse me the twenty fifth than also september first after that. We're taking a look at the n._f._l. And all the things going on with that on monday so the batter's box will be winding down here a little bit. No more thursday shows just on mondays sundays before kyle hunter until we get into the n._f._l. Regular season so hopefully you've learned some things better box over the summertime. Wish the picks in the article. Oh had been doing a little bit better obviously but lots of thoughts here on the better spock's week in week out. Hopefully you've been joined the shows as i've been doing them not going away just yet but i'm going to be scaling back here a little bit without the thursday shows so this is your last thursday edition of the better box so we got the full shows are begging radio starting again here on monday betters box and kyle hunter on monday brian blessing ralph michaels on tuesday wednesdays. We'll have brian leonard back thursdays. We'll have brad powers back. Fridays will be doing some different types of things. We'll do some u._f._c. with christian. Pino will do <hes> the the segment with brent from the sportsbook the odds report now. Let's get into the n._f._l. Season we doing our super contests segment as well. We're in the circa million this year. We're going to be in the near future here. Then also the golden nugget ultimate football challenge so very very busy times right now at bangor book dot com on facebook radio tons and tons of stuff going on. I'm going to be updating my college football power eating here within probably the next week or so. <hes> obviously got games coming up here on august twenty fourth. I've got a preview up for the florida and miami game. We'll be writing a preview probably tomorrow four arizona and hawaii you can check that out over at the website we zero the opening line report will go up on monday week one opening line report <hes> probably late next week so get very very busy time of year. Make sure you catch the job everything that you may have missed over the book dotcom danny forbes's division by division n._f._l. Season win total write ups where he's got. His model spreads fifty eight percent on all picks side and totals for danny over the last two years over at the websites. That's fantastic checkout n._f._l. Preseason game previews going up up two or three of those a week for me also some more from one of our affiliate partners and charles j <hes> so you can check those out nascar w._n._b._a. Soccer tennis hell. We got everything going on over at bang book dot com right now a great golf review for this weekend's event from james missoula one more event next week the tour championship he'll preview that at one for us as well then the president's cup then a little bit of a break from the gulf side of things but still very very busy plenty of contact going up on the daily over rat bang the book dot com. I mentioned the super contest. I mentioned the circa million was we're going to get in for instance on your all season. Also the golden nugget ultimate football challenge. If you wanna get get into any of those football contests out in las vegas vegas mattie football contest dot com should be your proxy for that. He's been our proxy for the last several years. Very reliable does a fantastic job. Matt tony do such great work there with football contests dot com check them out. If you want to get involved in those contests and you do not live in the state of nevada or do not have access to the west gate at four putting in your super guy does picks you have to use as a proxy so biggest mattie antoni over at football contests dot com are your preferred preferred choice for those upcoming football contests out in in las vegas super contest weekend coming up. That's a week from saturday all the handicappers. We'll be down there at the super book lots of stuff going on of course you know checking out the circle the million you can sign up for that at the d. or at the golden gate casino began if you're not a resident of nevada and don't have access super continents only believe only the super for context can be put in via the app so if you're not out in nevada just easier to get a proxy let vegas tony over at football contests dot com. I'm do that for you all right. Let's go ahead and go beyond the boxer here to start things off down the lines. Give you a couple of picks for tonight's action and then preview the weekend and the head so let's go beyond the box store with a look at this red sox and indian series lotta questionable decisions for the indians in this series some extremely extremely ill advised sacrifice bonds. Some questionable pitching changes from terry francona. The red sox had thirty three at bats. The runners position in this series series indians only had twenty one. This is a tired indians ballclub right now. You're they kinda. Rode the wave of taking three out of four from minnesota getting that went win on monday against boston the walk off win with the carlos santana homerun after that they showed some fighting game to give them credit for that they got buried early on in in that game but this kind of dot on wednesday and this is an indian team that has had one scheduled off day since the all star break. They got an extra off-day with the rain out against texas at home but then played a double header and then played the four games against the twins so physically and emotionally drained ballclub right now to make a big run in june july to get back into the race and then now here in august. You'll play teams like the angels the astros the rangers the the twins the red sox now they take on the yankees and the mets. We're going to stay in the same hotel playing in the bronx and in queens seven seven games over the next eight days they do have monday off but a very unique situation remains baseball. You spend three or four days of the city and you move on for the indians here eight days in a row really nine days in a row in the same hotel there in new york so that's a real big challenge. I'm jay real different kind of setup for them here this week playing against the yankees and the mets so this is an indian team. I'd be very worried about here over the next seven games tmz their gas a little bit. They need a chance to catch their collective breath when they get back home. After this set a series of new york they play the royals so maybe that's a spot for them to catch a little bit of a breather gives some guys some days off stuff like that but keep a very very close eye on the indians here over the next week as far the red sox go you know they're still gonna hit pitching still a question mark over all. They're not a playoff team. They're not going to make the postseason this year so obviously they're a little bit of a tough team to gauge is right now because they just don't have the same level of incentive that they usually do what i really want to look at. Here is the indians and just how emotionally and physically draining this team is they've got eight or nine relievers in the bullpen at any given time and yet they still wind up having a tired bullpen so you know we'll see how they do here at yankee stadium william in a series. I'll talk about a little bit later on in the show speaking of the a._l. Central the minnesota twins with their series with the milwaukee brewers as the teams traded bullpen disasters astor's in the two interleague games here ryan harper and then josh ater on tuesday so twins blow a lead hater gives it right back to them twins win that game then on wednesday sergio robo he blows the save brewers pickup that win with a three run shot in the eighth inning what the brewers had a lot of chances the runner in scoring position early on in that game yesterday couldn't get the big hits instead. The twins were busy hitting. Solo home runs off of gio gonzalez. The twins are kind of in a similar boat to the indians in that. They've played a lot of close emotional games. They felt that pressure of the indians catching up to them in the division that eventually passing them on monday for sole possession of first place by half a game now the twins back in first place a half game but still you know the twins are not accustomed into being in this position and really ironically enough neither of unions because unions have really dominated this division over the last three years to the point where they haven't had head to play meaningful baseball in the month of august the twins playing meaningful baseball in august now for the first time in a while as well so kind of watched them a little bit here to do they do have a much easier assignment. They go down to texas and take on the rangers who are not playing very good baseball right now so easier spot for the twins but again both the indians and the twins playing a lot of important games here of late. Maybe we get some down from both of those teams here. In the near future. The national swept the reds red's tremor power blasted in game three of that series which i had stuck with my fate of power. I guess i got scared off by his performance against the cubs in his previous start gave up nine runs in four and a third only struck out for the nationals here in this series fourteen for twenty three with a runner and squirm and they were ten for fourteen eighteen in the finale yesterday as they banged out seventeen runs. The nationals bullpen did make game one interesting. They had a big lead kind of gave it back. Hug on for the victory. Couple nice wins on tuesday and wednesday. The nationals look strong again. You'll want soto is okay. Everything came back fine with the the reviews his leg injury as drew cabrera swing and good sticks and they picked him up with a nine eighty p._s. And a limited sample size nationals look good and the reds really don't you know the bullpen has gotten a lot better or the rotation. Excuse me has gotten a lot better under west johnson they have the twenty ninth ranked think fifth in terms of bullpens in the second half. They've also had some issues in the e._r._a. Department with their bullpen as well so that's been a a problem and the starting staff what well they've been better. There are a lot of guys in that starting staff that do have substantial platoon splits with they're pretty good against righties and really struggle <hes> against lefties. There are limited team right now. I mentioned that they were the highest team and second half batting average on balls in play so the offense could probably regress a little bit as well. The reds are in a tough spot right now back to seven games under five hundred and i'm just not sure they'll get over the hump the rest of the way but again the twin or the nationals excuse me looking very very very strong here. In this series the rangers took the first two from the new york madison my brave second-half just season win total bat looking very strong right now dallas kyko getting through six yesterday figuring out the third time through the order penalty a big deal for them because once again this atlanta bullpen even though they've won two games here so far in this three game set shane green gives up runs chris martin mark melanson giving up runs green with a decent inning and last night's escape but again struggling in game one. This bullpen is still a mess. They just can't get is comfortable out there. Maybe they have to start putting green and melanson some lower leverage situations elevating guys like nukem back up into some higher leverage roles luke jackson same thing for him. They're trying to figure this whole thing out. Brian snickers vickers trying to put it all together but fortunately for the braves. They've won the first two games here in this series and as you look at this one for the mets. I think the mets have had their. They're fun. I think they got back into the race. You commend them for that. I think they're going to kinda hit a little bit of a wall here now and one of the big reasons. Why is the injury to geoff. Mcneil led the team in f for versatile players played three different positions for pretty good sample sizes of innings so far this year and he's been one of their better defenders overall for all eight. Three ninety two weighted on base average top fifteen in major league baseball. I know some guys yesterday. We're on the braves probably because again again keep in mind that when guys are in and out of the lineup their numbers reflect that because they've got models that spit out expected runs and things of that sort based on the lineup that's out there well without mcneil the mets going with that ahmed rosario in the leadoff spot. He's got like a three nineteen on base percentage. That's a mistake from manager. Mickey callaway neal's a big loss offensively for them. He's the table center the guy that gets on in front of pedal on so this is a problem for them going forward. I'm fading the mets here today. I'm backing julio tehran tonight against the mets and and marcus stroman but i think the mets have had their fun. I think they're big regression. Get it like they're a team that you wanna look to fade while this mcneil injury is happening and mcneil a guy with a long injury history throughout his career as well so hopefully this sam string doesn't linger for his sake but this could be something that does last a while for the mets. We're quickly thing to point out here from the phillies and cubs series. The cubs are the only three runs in this series shut down by jason vargas in game one aaron noah twirls gem in game two. They were down very big very early in that game so they kind of punt in a little bit <hes> in game two but still only scoring one run their off of noah and the phillies bullpen jose cantata struggle struggle fourteen in game one for the cubs. They wasted that start then they get shot down by noah. We'll see what they do today against drew smiley but this cubs team you once again and really this has been the story for the central in general so much inconsistency just. I don't know what i'm getting from the cubs day in and day out. I'm just not sure offensive offensive. They've got so much personnel. The pitching staff is talented but also pretty inconsistent kind of a jekyll and hyde pitching staff there for chicago. They're hard team to back because you just don't know what you're going to get day in and day out from this team. You know too much talent to be struggling to put teams away in the n._f._l. Central here but you know we look at these two games and we kind of understand the reasons why all right something. I want to talk about here today and i'll tie this all together at the end best lineups against what i considered to be elite velocity of ninety five plus miles per hour. This is looking at results per baseball savant per stat cast data on pitches his off ninety five plus miles per hour the dodgers the best lineup in baseball at four zero nine. That's woven a four nine mobile weighted on base average yankees at three. He's seventy eight twins three sixty nine. How about this one. The anaheim angels three fifty six so the angels are very good job against elite velocity file file that one away in the back of your mind cardinals three fifty one against elite velocity they hit literally nothing else other than fastballs but they hit velocity pretty well a three fifty one woah in that split and they do face louise casio here this weekend so maybe that's something where you wanna look at eighteen total over a game over i five over something like that but you know the dodgers yankees and twins not a big surprise at all the angels and cardinals hitting velocity does surprise me a little bit as far as the rest of the top ten goes to mariners at three fifty one frames at three fifty nationals three forty seven the mets three forty six and the padres padres at three thirty nine so the padres a team that does swing and miss a lot but they swing a mess a lot on off speed pitches and breaking balls. They will hit fastballs. They will hit high-velocity fastballs as they ranked tenth in wilbur in that department so again best lineups against elite velocity pitches of ninety five plus miles per hour dodgers yankees twins angels cardinals or the top five mariners braves nationals mets padres six through ten the bottom five white sox blue jays marlins reds and detroit tigers the best lineups on elite velocity of ninety five plus plus miles per hour from right handed pitchers only got ninety five plus mph pitches from right handed pitchers dodgers at four zero seven yankees three seventy five twins three sixty four the angels make another appearance three sixty four and this is particularly interesting because because they've got a fairly right handed heavy lineup they do have shohei otani but beyond that a lot of right handed sticks. They're relying on to do some damage and of course that it has been the case. They're a top ten offense against righties. <hes> not so good against lefties then the nationals at three fifty four the bottom five four of these will not surprise you the white sox at two fifty seven blue jays to sixty reds to eighty seven marlins to ninety seven again had elite velocity ninety five plus mph pitches from right handed hurlers the bottom four white sox blue jays reds and marlins the team that ranks twenty six in weighted on base average against pitches of ninety five plus miles per hour from right handed pitchers the houston houston astros at three o seven how about that and elite lineup no doubt about it from a talent standpoint simply elite they are twenty six in weighted on base average against right handed pitchers on pitches of ninety five plus miles per hour and this is a very right handed heavy astros lineup so that is part of the equation here and a lot of the guys the astros other right handed batters against right handed pitchers take kind of a right center opposite field type of approach. It's harder to drive the ball that way so this does kind of make some sense here in that a lot of times you hit for power by pulling the baseball. The astros do like to go to right center and right field a lot of their right handed. Bats do like like to do that again. This also speaks to how right handed heavy that astros lineup is this is particularly relevant. If the astros run into the indians in the playoffs playoffs now. Do i think the indians hit the astros pitching staff. Hell no not at all but we could see a lot of low scoring games against clemenger against bieber. <hes> you know obviously for the rest of the rotation. They don't throw his heart begins clever and beaver. I'd be looking for some unders in those types of matchup so keep this in mind with the astros sure when they faced guys with a league velocity from the right side they are not a good lineup at all since definitely worth considering here as as we go forward best line against elite velocity of ninety five plus from left handed pitchers. These are extremely small sample sizes here so take this substantial grain of salt. There's very very small the cardinals and the best in baseball four seventy eight but only thirty eight results there so remember i mentioned the cardinals were fifth if in wilbur on elite velocity but their name a four seventy eight war against left handed pitchers in thirty eight results so let's skews the numbers a little bit. It's a very small part of the sample size but against righties. They're probably not a top five team as we just talked about their. Probably you know seventh or eighth something like that so keep that in mind. This is a small sample size but it's probably enough to skew the data just a little bit dodgers at four forty five once again. Only only thirty eight results there the mariners three ninety five with sixty results twins three ninety three with ninety five results the yankees at three ninety one with a hundred and thirty five results one of the biggest the biggest sample size off results against elite velocity ninety five plus from left handed pitchers so that one's probably big enough to have a little bit of to it so the yankees very good against elite velocity from left handed pitchers the teams that are not the pirates to fourteen sixty eight results marlins thirty five and fifty two results giants to forty five eighty seven results tigers to forty six six and fifty two results the as to sixty six with forty two results so sample size much much smaller here the primary take away the yankees are very very good against lefties and the giants aren't what they big well. They fairly decent sample size there of eighty-seven results in play now something else i wanted to look at your your team weighted on base average against left handed sliders and curve balls pretty good sample sizes here so these are numbers you wanna keep in mind might again team weighted on base average against left handed sliders and curve balls the astros number one at three eighty six so they don't hit high velocity ossie from righties but they hit virtually everything else in particular hitting lefties very well with sliders and curb balls so we get a left handed pitcher against them that likes to the throw a lotta sliders and curve balls probably not going to have a lot of success in that particular match up diamond backs three sixty four the as three forty three how about these last two the tigers at three twenty nine and the rangers at three twenty three so the tigers and the rangers fairing pretty well against left handed breaking stuff off with those sliders and curve balls the bottom five here again these are pretty decent sample sizes overall the reds at two thirty five royals to thirty seven and giants to forty four mets to forty eight and how about this one the chicago cubs at two forty nine so the cubs not hitting lefties well this season in terms of sliders and curve balls so something for you to factor into the equation and i'll tell us together here in in a couple of minutes finally team against right handed sliders and curve balls red sox three thirty seven yankees three fourteen astros three return dodgers three. Oh six indians three oh five the bottom five here and he's a very big sample sizes padres to forty nine royal oils to forty nine mariners fifty one as two fifty six reds to fifty six so the as don't hit sliders and curve balls well l. from right handed pitchers. This makes sense. They're very right. Handed heavy light up padres right handed heavy lineup royals their best sitters sitters are right handed mariners right handed heavy lineup to a degree. What are their best hitter are right handed so what i think all of this means to me is that this may be my strategy next year instead of digging deep into the sabermetrics instead of looking at things for me regression analysis standpoint standpoint. I may just look deeper into the match. Ups based on pitch types play a lot of i five. You're regression analysis. I it's too finicky nikki and you know i'm starting my wife last night about the tough baseball season that i've had and look i'm picking it about a fifty percent clip which isn't very good especially junior playing favorites which is why i'm down such a decent amount for the season but she asked me why you know what's what's not working. What's not playing laying out the way that i would expect it to and as i started thinking about it in talking through it with her look when you talk about regression analysis right guys got a three thirty e._r._a. In a five ten fifteen okay in line for negative aggression you know it. I know the betting market knows it but keep in mind ride that when you talk about negative progression three earned runs over six innings is a four fifty e._r._a. Is that a bad start. It's not great but it's not bad. I mean it's called a quality start for a reason right well. That's going to be negative regression with a three thirty e._r._a. And a five tenths dip any <music> game line within your over three thirty is negative aggression so in that respect. Maybe i'm barking up the wrong tree. You'll a lot of these things used to work and maybe some of these things are priced into the line as some of these things are taken out <noise>. Excuse me by the overnight line movements that are there but i think it's just finicky. I think the expectation of aggression is fine but the degree korea regression is completely unknown so this year because things haven't worked out the way they used to. I've been a challenge myself into looking at things is a little bit differently and it's too late in the season for me to do it now with football season coming up with all the planning that goes into that and all the additional work that goes into that. It's it's too hard for me to pull a complete one eighty now but i think this will be a thing next year. I think i will look a lot more into matchups based on pitch type and success zest on particular pitch types based on pitcher handedness because you know i think that regression analysis degrees of aggression are too hard to pinpoint so all of this stuff team logo against right handed sliders and curve balls t. mobile against high-velocity all the numbers i just i gave you. I think that's my plan for next year and it will require some more infrastructure. It will require. You know doing some similar research. Maybe putting together more spreadsheets stuff like that but i think this is going to be a better plan of attack looked back lineups when they're going up against their strengths or look to back pitchers when they're going up against lineups don't succeed in certain types of ways because all this data is out there i would. I like to think that smart organizations and the majority of them are smart now when it comes to analysing the numbers. I think it's smart. Organizations are going to look at these types of splits wits and tell their pitchers. Hey look you know you're facing the padres. You're right handed typically your fifty percent fastball guy. We want you to be a forty percent fastball guy or thirty five percents fastball guy in this start attack them with sliders and curve balls and that should be the plan of attack heck. That should be what teams do so. Maybe that's the trick here. Maybe it's to think like you're doing a scouting report. Maybe it's two-point you put yourself in the mind of that team of that pitching coach of that battery of how we're going to attack these hitters you know if you're facing the astros and and you throw ninety seven throw fastballs men pump fastballs at that lineup. Maybe that's the way to have success when it comes to betting baseball so i think maybe i need to take more cerebral approach in terms of looking specifically at the match up at the personnel and trying to figure out how these pictures going to attack these teams. I think that's exactly what they're looking at. I think that's the way that i need to look at things as well so this will be a learning curve for next year but this is what i'm going to look at on a game by game basis. Regression analysis helps i. The expectation of regression is a good starting point but i need to piggyback that. I need to add more data to it. I did do a little bit more again. Well yet from a matchup chop. Standpoint is going to be my plan of attack going for next year so as i mentioned in my picks and tips piece today i gave a lot of consideration yesterday to shutting down the article. We're digging a deep hole. It's not good for me. It's not good for the site and it's obviously not good for my readers either. I'd like to incorporate some more of this stuff. I will be looking more at these notes running for baseball savant queries as time permits. We got with baseball season coming up. It's hard to make this complete. One one hundred eighty degree change so what i'll probably end up doing is look at these teams that are really good at this. Look at these things that are really bad at this. You know based on the match up. That's coming up and just have lists. Have spreadsheets have things that are out there that i could access very very quickly. They make it find someone to help me scrape this and do it from an automated standpoint but i think that's the plan going forward is to do more of a match up analysis m._l._b. Handicap looking looking at strengths looking at weaknesses and expecting these teams that should be smart enough to interpret the data to do what needs to be done and then hope that the pitchers execute properly so it's going to be a complete change for me. It's going to be something completely brand new. I think it's still going to give me an agile agile there in the market because i don't think a lot of people are going to be doing it in this manner but that's my plan for next year and i'm gonna try to incorporate some more of this the rest of the way but this is kind of an epiphany tiffany. It's kind of a come to joe boo or come to jesus baseball jesus moment here where i need to change and that's what i'm going to look to do here for the rest of this season and the upcoming season as well aren't so down the line to take a look at some moments that have happened dating back to tuesday here well some joe ross money hit the board for the nationals <hes> again there matchup against the reds joe ross getting a little bit of a bump now out there in the baseball community pretty throwing his curveball more. He's had good success good results with it as the nationals made that usage change jeff zimmerman tweeted about it others tweeted about it see a fan graphs bumps sometimes from that it was after ross assert will see if he takes the money here in his next start which i believe comes on sunday. If not monday sunday saw some marlins money on jordan yamamoto against dustin may that wound up being a loser there in that one that gallon took heavy money flipped into a favorite at chorus field yes jeff hoffman and colorado rockies saw fayed of you say kukuchi and the mariners that was against the tigers and matthew boyd gucci and the mariners a winner in that one boy knocked around again coochie much better this year against non a._l. West teams like night night and day better a huge difference there <hes> so that was something that's kind of stood out to me. A little bit didn't do the article on tuesday. <hes> maybe that would have been a play that i would have. We've had going against matt boyd there with you coochie but in any event keep that in mind for kukuchi starts against non division teams the rest of the way heavy jack flaherty money hit the board before the cardinals against the royals and glenn sparkman not a big surprise there heavy astros money on zach granny against the chicago white sox that one <hes> what's what's again not a big surprise wednesday we saw some heavy robbie ray money against kyle freeland fade freely that chorus field diamondbacks bullpen winds blowing that one for everybody that was on the arizona side saw some stephen strasburg money last night against trevor bauer that was clearly the correct side of the nationals rolled to a seventeen to seven victory clayton kershaw money drove him up into a three dollar favorite role against the marlins and the as our hernandez yesterday not a big surprised there and that one getting seeing these big favorites take money very very often here get big favorites very profitable major league baseball over the last several years sausa- sean reid foley money for the blue jays gets colby allard and the rangers at one did not work out as the rangers victory in that one wade miley ali pumped up into more than a favorite for the astros gets ross detweiler and the white sox that was one rare instance where a big favourite lost as the white sox came away with that victory there in the plus two sixty ish range heavy mark gonzales money against edwin jackson and the tigers yesterday that did not work tigers came away with a victory there in that one over the mariners and left-hander marco gonzalez thursday not a ton going on here as of yet seen some yu darvish money kind of leak into the market against the phillies andrew smiley sauce marcus stroman and mets money early on. I disagree with it. I'm on the brains tonight. In the minus twenty ranch julio tehran's been very very good this year and also the mets without jeff mcneil. I really worry about them. Offensively don't love stroman with the mets in in that poor defense so give me the braves tonight as one of my place some heavy alex young money on the diamondbacks the giants and derek rodriguez. I'm on the i five five and that one i have no interest in back in the diamondbacks bullpen one in the first five online but ahead at the article and the show going. I'm sure the first five or online is out there now. I talked about minus one fifty five for the money line in the article. I run line. Maybe a little bit better to reduce the juice. I do like alex young and i don't like their rigas in that matchup otherwise pretty quiet thursday out there in the betting market. Thus far are bunch of serious talk about here as we head on into the weekend we start with the indians and the yankees 'em put code chad green and the first one errands volume master here up to knock on the second. One zach police act james paxton on saturday. Hey mike lemon juice d. c. Samatha on sunday the indians little bit tired with that schedule you gotta fly ball guy in getting the start here tonight that that concerns me quite a bit and then command guys with maybe a lower margin for error in errands delay anzac police on friday and saturday. I do like tanaka a little bit on friday night with a splitter. The indians have not hit changeups well all year long so like tanaka a little bit against volley there on friday of course we'll see what what that price looks like in that one the astros in the as you got anibal sanchez mike fires tonight got a piece of that one check out my tips and my picks and tip spy's overpaying overpaying the book dot com to find out what that play is berliner and roark on friday to determine at chris bassett on saturday zak cranky brett anderson on sunday europe kohl on the shelf for the time being but the astros integrate position to give him some time. Let him he'll up. There's a tough series for the as though sanchez ver- lander grinky all great off speed stuff from the right hand side berliner with elite velocity as well. This is a tough match-up for oakland. I would not be surprised is if the astros take three out of four and a minimum in this series so we'll see if there are two prohibitive for price standpoint but i do like the astros in several all of these games here in this series cardinals and the reds michael walker sonny grade tonight and wainwright lewis castio tomorrow miles nicholas anthony these funny on saturday jack flirty alex would on sunday cardinals giving three right handed pitchers in the first three games that can shut down there right head right handed heavy lineup. They get a lefty on sunday alex would jack flaherty has been great of late. That'll be overnight line mover there on the cardinals on sunday with flair taking money against the left in alex wood so maybe get out in front of that one is what i would recommend miles. Nicholas has been better of late so we'll see the reds. <hes> coming off of that sweep against the nationals didn't play particularly well. Let's see what they do against the cardinals here in this series brewers and the nationals adrian hauser patrick corbin on friday jordan lyles animal sanchez saturday chase anderson eric feddie on sunday jason anderson. It's been great here of late. I may look to play milwaukee on sunday day. We'll see how much bullpen usage they have. In the first two games of this series wiles versus sanchez pretty intriguing not a whole lot here on friday night <music> but getting we'll see what sunday sets up looking like for that series dodgers into braves and man. We got some good series here this weekend on my mic saroka friday eight hundred mike fulton every saturday dust and may max freed on sunday shame on major league baseball because on sunday night baseball the cubs and the pirates. Nobody wants to see that as far as this series goes. You know a big spot here for mike fulton avenue. Obviously we'll see how he does against a very good lineup kent on my eight. I has struggled here of late. Dustin man max free looks like under game on sunday. Perhaps dodgers forty games over five hundred now heading into thursday's thursday's action finally the padres and the phillies chris panic vince velazquez friday denison limit zach f. one saturday joey lucchese justin vargas on sunday sunday padres getting a lefty on sunday so that's a decent spot for them. We'll do casey on the bump for them. They don't limit steam probably comes on saturday. The padres do to avoid aaron nola wonder if the i five is a good look on i five under excuse me on friday night with paddock and velazquez velazquez pitching a little bit better here of late right handed heavy padres lineup. He's terrible against lefties. Maybe the first five under consideration here for friday lots of stuff on today's show adamant banged the book dot com via email to sign up for the notes for the program. I think i sent out mondays. If i didn't i will do that with <hes> the notes for today's show but again talked about a lot of stuff great weekend baseball and also some food for thought on how i'm going to change my personal handicapping you have see with christian pena on friday betters fox and kyle hunter on monday brian blessing ralph michaels on tuesday will figure out the rest of the schedule as it closer to the return of the daily shows of banged the book radio out there for me. They can switch for listening everybody and remember that you'll never strike out when you're in the better spock's get old baby right now. All jeans are on sale up to fifty percent off from fifteen bucks for adults ten bucks for kids. 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