Players To Target - 2019 Fantasy Football
Welcome to the n._f._l. Talking heads fantasy football show here. I'm your host jeff. Carrier did seth law. Hey everyone welcome to the n._f._l. Talking heads fantasy football part is seth lol here with my co host jeffrey carrier jeff back at it one. I want to get right into this opening question here. You know we've been following player movement. It's kind of really volatile right now and and one player that seems to be kind of settled in as an early second round player nick chubb average draft position to oh three. What is your thoughts on nick chubb as far as value. Do you see yourself having any shares of him. I don't think i'm gonna end up within his shares in nick chubb but you know so if we're going to analyze the recent change in departure of duke johnson. I think that's a plus for him. I know that they have another young long running back. There believe hilliard who anticipate being the pass catching back and fill in the duke johnson role but it's just a good sign of confidence vince that nick chubb is going to be their main person even if they spell out a little bit for hilliard interviews not necessarily getting all the past catches me many times where they're gonna audible out from you know vice versa you know. They thought they were gonna run. Then they're gonna pass and he can get a dump off pass in that direction. He's going to be on the field. You know snap percentage wise a ton so i like the move. Obviously everyone likes the offense. We're anticipating you. You know a big increase in production from that offense but his as you mentioned the incline the increase of a._d._p. Has gone from a two point ten in less than two weeks to two point zero three and that's that's a pretty massive move in such a high draft apps spot so i think for that reason i'm gonna just slightly miss out on him where i think i'd i really really liked to take him is right in the middle there <hes> <hes> two point zero seven even two point ten where he was going now because there's not a lot of running backs going in that early second round. He's probably probably just gonna be just out of reach but i do like him. Though i the loss in the browns trained do johnston's huge for me. Nick chubb did still have twenty catches last season season in his rookie season with nick with <hes> johnson there compared to somebody like sunny michelle who had seven catches who literally will not catch the football at all so so twenty catches is pretty solid considering a rookie and he dealt with duke johnson who is one of the top specialists you know for for p._r. Purposes says so he's definitely somebody that i like a lot. At that middle part of the second round he somebody that depending on if i'm picking nine overall in the first round <hes> or tenth tenth overall i would be very very comfortable taking nick chubb early in the second round too. I just think he's he's a bell cow for what projects to be a really good fantasy offense without duke johnson so i i like it yeah and do last year. Head is worse receiving year <music> out of his career so far he only had a sixty two targets came out the solid forty seven receptions so it's hard to gauge what percentage of that is going to go oh to possibly chubb possibly hilliard in the first eight games obviously hunts impact afterwards but you have to believe leave that as long as nick job does everything on the field correctly. It's going to be hard to necessarily have the browns as you know. Take them off and re really reduces load and come to a complete timeshare running back by committee so eight-game sample tube before kareem hunt gets back that that's a huge part of your season right so and even if he's dominant for the first eight weeks and then definitely takes a step back. I mean those first eight weeks. You could put yourself in a position for a first round bye or whatever it might be so. I still like it so little rich but i nick job. I like the departure of dick johnson he definitely this is definitely shaping up to potentially be or nick chavez potentially shaping up to be an elite league fantasy player speaking of elite fantasy players. I mean we're gonna. We're gonna have some positivity for the podcast today. We're gonna talk about players that we want to target. We're gonna save players that we want to avoid and all that all the negativity for another podcast. We're going to focus on some players that we that we really liked that. We see ourselves having multiple shares of we're going out and we're we're going to go get <hes> now. We have the league. Is we have the middle middle tier guys from the late round players. Let's let's start with some of the elite players now. Obviously you know the top ten players. We like all of them just to varying degrees this who are some elite players that you see yourself having multiple shares of or that you're you're going out of your way to target yeah as you mentioned and these early players so obviously it's hard not to like a lot of them but players on i'm going to potentially draft much higher than their a._d._p. Or or make sure i go out of my way to and you could say in a good reason to maybe pay attention to this. Too is if you're an elite get to choose your draft selection. You know this. This becomes really important so just going in terms of a._d._p. Order i'm still kind of surprised i haven't seen him. Go into the first round. We talked about it weeks ago when he finally the n._f._l. Came out and said his suspension won't be he won't have suspension tyree kill for the kansas city chiefs. There's there's no reason why not to love this guy. He was number one or two receiver last year. I mean you're getting him on the turn. Turn everything that offenses coming back there. I mean what is there not to lake in. This draft spot was between him and you know maybe outside. Andre hopkins who everyone include myself has as the wide receiver one was. You're not to like so loved harry. Kill at to a one. I liked tyreek hill law too. I think in most years i i feel like even though he's he's not getting suspended. I feel like that off. The field stuff is still hovering over his his fantasy value for whatever reason because in most years he should be a first round player. If we're going strictly off of his numbers the offense offense he's in. I would have to assume a lot of people look at last season and they look at pat mahomes. It's fifty touchdown passes and they think he has to regress a little little bit. You know maybe it's even it's forty. Touchdowns tyree kills twelve touchdowns. Is that take a hit so i liked. I recall when when you're the second round you you're looking for players that have a ton of upside. <hes> in tyreek hill checks all the boxes the offense he's got as as much upside is any wide receiver <hes> it just it's great value which is part of the reason why you and i always say we we really don't want to at least i think think i'm i don't want to speak for you but i think you agree. We don't wanna be picking in the seven to eight to nine range necessarily because you're in a position where you potentially actually have to take de'andre hopkins not that you're really overdraft de'andre hopkins but you can get tyreek hill in the second round which is just greater value and you know i know in the last episode talked about our draft strategy in you haven't listened to that. We really kind of breakdown. Maybe the parts of the draft to kind of go after each section what we like back in. I talked a lot about being the upper end of the draft and then you can obviously make the argument you're doing now. Which is you know why being the middle. If a lot of the players in the middle was basically where tyree kills at the end of the first round early second in the middle of you can kind of feel like you're stuck in no man's land potentially with david johnson's johnson's the world's levian bell and whatnot so so yeah i mean i agree the next person on the list. A lot of these are kind of bunched up so maybe i'll just do. Do you know i'll do the next one here who's risen extraordinarily. I guess you know the settlement has come off of todd gurley <hes> <hes> we preached it just absolutely a weeks ago about drafting him in the late second round. I don't know i guess as we get closer. There's no hasn't really been news on either side. Some kind of kinda surprised at the same sense that he's moved up so much. Maybe again is because because there's not that many early second round running backs of really target and there's so many wide receivers in that range. I don't know i've liked him. I haven't been that scared tired of running back of his caliber. Go ahead and spell him. Give him less work if i'm going to get him in the second round and he's getting the touchdowns on the rams offense who you for the first you know what before target went down there with the number one offense scoring or two or three behind new england and casey. Give me that all day you know assuming that he doesn't lose goal line duties and they kind of keep them fresh. I'm cool with it. Too is definitely getting at the top of the the range there but again. We're still talking about todd gurley. The rams offense so i like it. I'm still targeting him heavenly and as as you mentioned you know maybe you try and strat- strategically pick your spot where you picking in the first round. If you know you wanna kinda get an early round running back and someone. I talked early in the early second kind of fit that bill all right. Let me ask let me ask you a question. I agree with you on todd gurley. I liked him even better when his a._d._p. Was sure sure that goes without saying right so now. It's getting a little a little bit i want. I want to say too close for comfort because i still believer in the value for todd gurley close best player and fantasy but so let me throw a couple of names that you the thing with todd gurley is no one questions his upside <hes> we've seen him do it for the past couple of seasons john's but when you're picking in the early second round where you're going to have to be picking to acquire todd gurley. Are you taking him over tyreek hill now. Are you taking them over juju. No are you taking him. Here's here's a question. Are you taking him over. Mike evans. I am see i that's where i think i'll lean towards my evans and you said you tyreek hill over over girly. Mike evans evans now. They're both going in the same round that doesn't fit the same player different round criteria but we're talking to mike evans one less catch tyreek hill more receiving yards and obviously tyreek hill had the monster year on the back of pat mahomes with fifty touchdown passes tarik twelve touchdowns with gas at eight. Mike evans just does the euro era. They're not exactly the same even p._r. Which i recall was a number one wide receiver standard and by the way all these eighty ps and everything we're talking about terms of targeting targeting is full point p._r. So we're clear in tyreek. Hill was number. Three mike evans was number nine. There was almost a solid three points per week difference so they're close. Which is why they're going in the same round but you know we had to nitpick here. In terry. Kill is still in the better offense <hes> <hes> i can i can. I can expect more what to get outta tyreek. Hill this year and girly. I think is so close to mike evans that i think i default default position with that. Maybe this is just like my value at two point to point away right so you're very close yeah. I look at tyreek hill season last year. Do you think he's gonna have a better season this year or worst season you think last year's numbers is if you were a betting outing man and we we know you are. Do you think he has more touchdowns this year than last year. Stats real quick twelve touchdowns last aasiya you think he has more than twelve touchdowns. I do not i don't either. Do you think he has more than you think he tops. Fifteen hundred receiving yards man is yards per reception seventeen. I think there's a shot he can get past <hes> fourteen seventy nine yeah. Let's see like i look at mike evans numbers and i i think last year i was probably arguably the best year in his career you could say the two thousand sixteen was a little better because the touchdowns announced but bruce arians with no adam humphreys into sean jackson not to belabor the same points that we always make but it's it's worth being throwing out there because the fact remains better coach less options is just him and chris god when they throw the ball unexpected goodyear names winston i love mike mike evans value and and i look at his numbers and i'm like he he's good he could be a double digit touchdown guy. So what are we arguing here like the value or picking todd art girly over my i would take over todd gurley okay well. Let's let's get to the next to people in the elite section here because this is going to be important. The next person is someone that actually surprise has not gone out of everyone that we've liked. We've talked about they just seem to keep going up people alaric coming to the realization that they were undervalued but this person has not if anything he might have slipped a couple pegs. That's juju sucessor two point zero three absolutely enamored with the upside and the percentage of target's guy could get is just an enormous yet twenty four percent target share last year. There's no reason why with antonio brown limited with the no twenty four percent that that can't creep up to almost dirty already granted. They threw an absolute ridiculous amount last year but you know i don't know i can't expect to really go down too much still gonna love you on bell their first full. I guess both first full season entering the season without levian bell. They're going to have to throw a ton on the guy at one hundred eleven catches with antonio brown. I mean yeah you could say maybe their offense won't be as efficient because it's hard to imagine them being more efficient with no antonio brown but just the sheer volume demands that juju be like he's a borderline first round right. Oh absolutely me and i guess he is there as well. L. and i'm so high on juju that again this is why i don't want to be in the middle of the first round necessarily especially six seven eight range but i have juju as my second overall wide receiver him entire. Kill cannot decide but i have him that high so it would almost like if i got stuck stuck in in the seven spot i might have to do. They're just to prove a point just a tape player i want because when you're i mean that's what you should do. Don't go off eighty ps and just because you know julio's going higher or michael. Thomas like someone is idea what do do so much now. I hope i can get dude you in some of these wraps. I don't know i feel like it's going to be difficult. I might not be in the back end of the first round early seconds and now we are also playing with a lot of people that listen to us so i can imagine that's gonna make it even more difficult if i can call dibs right now and are real men's league. That'd be great. Give me juju. I call dibs on that. <hes> <hes> just super high on juju. I mean i just i don't know what else to say. Here's the thing about juju and we we. We've just been talking about for for a while l. Now the middle to end of the first round. It's like it's completely anything could happen right so de'andre. Hopkins has one point zero six. I think most people would would agree the a he is the consensus you do you take deandre hopkins there even though the gap between him and juju wide as as a lot of people think adam seven i'm fine fine taken atoms over juju and then out even even be receptive to the to hearing the argument okay. You take bell eight because he is probably the last. Did you know his upside whatever bell but as early as one oh nine juju or do michael thomas. That's a good question because i think i would lean to. I think i'm leaning towards juju there in four full point p._p. Are you have to do because of the receptions. I mean he had a hundred eleven catches last last year with antonio brown as you noted. I think that you can definitely start getting closer to a different argument when you start getting into the standard because michael. Thomas is catch as many balls as ju just so but how many catches did <hes> michael thomas last year. They spread the ball around there so much. Let's look it up now. I mean obviously we're talking or even half point p._r. Think you'd probably go schuster yeah. <hes> it's a matter of preference. You really can't go wrong either one hundred hundred and twenty-five catches for michael thomas okay. It's the touchdown the effort to nine nine nine touchdowns thomas seven for juju so pretty close there. I think if you're making the case for juju you're saying he's you know we're we're getting handed the keys you know antonio brown the upside of what could be with juju this year and what the offense might look live with him as the focal point is is intriguing rigging and that's why you know a lot of people are one of the reasons why people love juju. Here's a crazy question again. I love michael thomas. How can you obviously not but i mean is it. Is it out over the remmel possibilities that no jews you also get. You don't even know what i'm going to say but he does. He get like fifteen touchdowns because they don't have to throat anyway these crazy numbers but in that spot. I like everyone's floor. I like judas floor. I'm just going to upside there. I feel like when michael thomas when it gets on the great. I'm going to get something top three top. Four guaranteed might be a little bit more downside juju being the number one receiver there but i'm going for just complete blow up in that spot. Here's a crazy question. Are you taking juwono seven. Could you see yourself doing that. Yeah i just yeah you know unfortunately like i don't wanna get stuck in that position because i'd take him to five spots later so that obviously means i would much rather pick later and be happier so the next the next person on this elite category of only got four three of them wide receivers person. We were just mentioning mike evans. We are two point zero eight zero lot to distinguish the difference between him and terry killed. Not really you know we got we. We got tons of targets that have left that offense. I think everyone's kind of talked about this. Tampa bay offense including us to nauseam what brasilia's comeback vertical passing like who cares what they are win wise with james winston but mike evans should have another great year and if you can get him i'm to combo him with one of your top four wide receivers potentially. I mean running backs an atop of the i four picks. It's just such a great combo yeah. That's my that's my dream combo in all the best ball drafts that i've done at this point. Mike evans is always the the guy that i target you know when i've been picking the four to five range and several occasions. I've missed out on him. He goes the pick or two before me but he's he's an awesome second round player like you said if you get the zieger david johnson or kamara in your lucky enough to have mike evans fall to you. That's that's the ideal scenario yeah because all the time what happens in in the second round here is that the by the end of the second round. You've got people who have really good upside but you know maybe they have a lot of question marks. Maybe they haven't done it. So many years years in a row like antonio brown type of player would be a great example of someone that would be typically going late seconds or so and with mike evans. I feel like besides maybe the one year that was really kinda disappointing and he didn't score a lot of touchdowns. He's basically a stud veteran at this point and you could say that his numbers could even get better because maybe the offense is more efficient this year yep i am i am. I am firmly on the mike evans bandwagon. I could see myself. We've got a few drafts coming up. I see myself having at least two or three shares and mike evans at the end of the second round. It's like you feel so good about the start of your draft. I mean you just feel so good about it and this is it doesn't mean very interesting with me do in our drafts. It's like where do we end up. In the second round you know because obviously we know we both targeting mike evans and so and that's why i love the idea of getting a running back early in the first round and then if you can parlay that with my gavin's in the second round you kind of i feel like you've got somebody who's not doubt much below. The andre hopkins around later like the under hopkins is a little better but he's not that much better outta the mike gavin so my guns in the second round is an absolute home run any other elite players were leaving out or is so i've comment a lot on david johnson the past and the reason he's on this is because i don't know how you really target someone who's going one. Oh five. That's like that's like saying target. You know alvin kamara i i don't i don't know i like david johnson lot. I don't i don't i don't. I don't think he's one of those top four ronnie bags to be honest but when we started talking about this two months ago david johnson was also going at the back end of the first round so things have completely changed right now with zeke disappearance. David johnson is going forth overall because people don't want to take that risk so he's slim to the fourth hole. I like david johnson so if i'm suck there in the middle i mean i had to take him. I'm taking david david johnson over juju not moving through that much. That's you know other than the top five or start the the top five or starting to take shape here we i mean it's saquon mccaffrey kamara david johnson zeke in any particular order with john hopkins being the east kind of he's in a six tall. He's not going anywhere unless zeke drops depending on how that situation unfold but right now. I think he's you really can't picture. Che's e falling out of the top five all right fantasy football fans listen up. 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Maybe the you know the players players going fourth fifth six rounds somewhere in that range <hes> you know where you when you're picking in the first and second and even third round. You're starting to what kind of some of your picks at least some of the pick that i've been making some of my best ball drafts on draft have been influenced by some of the players that i know i can get in in the middle rounds you know some of those middle round players for example you and i on our last podcast. We talked about how much we like some of the wide receivers that are going in the middle. It'll rounds and why that has led us. You know as part of our draft strategy in the draft. We wanna take running backs in the first round if we can so when you look at the middle rounds who are some of these players that you're you know whether it be in best ball drafts you you've been seeing yourself multiple shares of you're taking <hes> who are some of the really good players that have really good value. Let's start with some some running backs there any running backs in the middle rounds all right off the right off the bat in the early early fourth-round definitely good if you get suck with the end of the first round there early second late third early fourth kind of turn is josh jacobs typically set. You and i aren't really big into rookies but that's a lot. That's usually has a lot to do with their value. Sometimes being over hyped now. I watched the first episode of hard knocks. I didn't see josh jacobs anywhere. Which i thought was surprising so hopefully i'll see him in the next one or so just just just to get a look at him but first round rookies having control of essentially the entire backfield for the most part jalen rashard is still going to catch the ball again. I'm fine with that they're going to they're going to throw enough. They're going to be behind. Their defense stinks as long as he is getting. The majority of the workload goal goal line carries specifically. I i like it. You know i mean the upsides pretty high for parable sake other previous rookies royce freeman last year when it three oh five kareem hunt when it to oh seven a much better offense they head coach was known for using running back really well and that was after of course spencer ware went down and there was literally no one else in the room on the roster christian mccaffrey two point eleven year before that delvin cook get three point on three acres going behind all these players in some cases. He was drafted higher than them so i i like it. I don't know what do you. What do you think they are especially. If you're looking at wide receiver i mean i mean in general i like for the most part rookie running backs value because i always say this is the only time you're going. I think the only reason you're able to get josh jacobs. This year in the fourth round is because he's a rookie if he lives up to his his draft value where he was drafted in the first round and he projects ax to be this this guy who's gonna get a lot of touches for oakland. This year is upside is pretty high if he does what a lot of people expect him to do. You're not going to be able to get them in the fourth round next year. We look at some of the players you mentioned like kareem. Hunt you know more than lived up to his draft capital. You spent acquire him same thing with christian christian mccaffrey daban cook had the injuries and royce fremaux is a little bit different. He wasn't drafted obviously as high as oakland draft. Josh jacobs and i don't think anybody would argue. Royce freeman had more talent than going into his rookie season then josh jacobs has so i i just like think i love the fourth round for josh jacobs. I think he has a ton of upside and he's you know i i like it. He's a player that i i could see myself having multiple shares of yep next. I'm gonna combo the three wide receivers together because they're all going pretty similar again. We've talked about the fourth round specifically the wide receivers our previous episode draft strategy so i want to cherry pick a couple of them just because you know we talked about liking so many of them so just kind of narrow it down a tiny bit more <hes> and this is coming probably a little bit more on my side of things since i put this list together for the most part <hes> brandin cooks four zero five chris godwin at four hundred eight and cooper cup at four twelve you you know i think you have specifically with the rams guys. You have someone really high floors assuming that cooper cup healthy which we've seen this injury people come back from from pretty quickly eshelman last year so cooks was wide receiver eleven fifteen the last two years respectively. He's coming off the board. At wide receiver sixteen sixteen. I understand ceiling isn't super high thus the value but you know one of our sayings gimme points and so depending on how your your team shaken up i mean i'm not going to be ever worried about putting in my pocket two hundred twenty plus points from a wide receiver and it's essentially essentially what you get from cooks most likely from cup a little bit later. Cup seems to be really well utilized around the red zone last year before going down he he was ranked fourth wide receiver n._p._r. Through the first five weeks before his injury fourth overall unsustainable probably for the touchdown pays of course but but again that offense both these guys command over twenty percent target share and then godwin over two hundred targets gets are gone from that offense similar thing mike evans the you know just ahead ninety he went. He had a big jump last year up to ninety five targets chris godwin. He's is going in the later. Half of the fourth which i think is still pretty reasonable for someone who's got some decent some considerable upside. He's got a big body guy so it's not like he's as a only person. He could definitely get upwards of eight touchdowns. Maybe a little bit more depending on how well james winston plays plays so i like all of them. There's a couple of other guys in the area but specifically those three. I think i'll probably target more heavily than others. Then i like all like all those three virtually the same i mean you know top robber woods and brandin cooks and all the rams receivers. I like basically i. I love them. Equally godwin's i think godman to me is i like him a little bit more and i think if cooper cop had injury he was going in fully healthy who was on a monster tear at the first half of last season so <hes> but that isn't the case obviously coming off the injury so i'd have to lean towards godwin but when i mean like goblin obviously a lot more when he was in the fifth round was great valley for him four point -o eight not terrible also not in love with it. I just i i wanna see him. Put put it all together. Even though it's definitely shaping up you know everything's kind of aligning for him to have a pretty good season yeah and of course you know wait until a week preseason game two and three and we see cup out there making cuts. You know you might wanna kiss this a._d._p. Goodbye as well as we've seen with everything else so next person enlists another running back go from four zero one two five. Oh one completely opposite this is for p._r. Only should have probably had ryan on this episode to let them know where to draft. Wrath james white right ryan's ryan is was ahead of his time with that with that james. Where do you take him the third round or fourth round 4._0._1. Where josh shake gone so so true so you should've taken josh jacobs. If dross jacob was there but that's that's where he took him james white right now at five a one. I wouldn't take them any earlier than this but in the fifth round for a team that just lost wrong wrong. Josh gordon is in flocks mikhael. Harry is a rookie wide receiver which we've seen how well that works with the pats as well as his current injuries new england and through for an has been over thirty percent to their running backs in appear full point. P p are basically league getting a wide receiver. That's going to get seventy to eighty catches in the running back spot so you can't go wrong especially in this range at the fifth in the fifth round around so i like it i the floor with because of the catches keeps them relatively high from week to week in the fifth round. I think defeat had any other kind of rushing touchdown upside. He obviously go a lot higher but yeah. I mean what are your thoughts taking james white in the early fifth. I i think people forget how ridiculous has numbers where last year i mean if you just look at james wide receiver which we probably should at this point and you look at total touchdowns anything he does in the rushing game is basically bonus twelve touchdowns twelve toll touchdowns for james white last year going in the fifth round if you can put up with some of the is anyone going into fifth round or later that had twelve total touchdowns anyone. I don't think so. I don't think so either so i mean if you can put up with some of the the game script stuff in some games where james why is is maybe going to be nonexistent. I just sunny. Michelle is an injury waiting to happen. He's not catching the ball and neither is naming harris and they don't really have only person catching the ball is potentially rex burkhead whenever he's not injured <hes> just because he might be a little bit more balanced per se or they think that he is then james white white gonna catch at least seventy balls. I think james white is is a good example of a player that you it's really important before you do draft to go back and just look back at all these players numbers because we think about james why you're like. He's one dimensional. He doesn't run the ball a lot. He's a running back but doesn't run you think kind of like duke johnson a better version do johnson and then you look at james wise the numbers and you're like okay. I'm just going to forget about the fact. These are running back. If anything that's that should be a luxury having him as a running bagging. They're hard to come by this going to be a lot more receivers available double so you can get a running back that basically puts up wide receiver type numbers on offense like new england where they're going to have to. I don't want to say manufacturer offense this year because i still zovut slava good offense but no gronkowski eshelman what thirty four this year and battled injuries the james white skin. I should be in line to get a lot of at least a lot of targets in the passing game. Eighty seven catches absurd twelve toll touchdowns. I mean mm-hmm bonkers next to again similar type of rain here so tyler boyd at five point oh seven d._j. More five point nine basically contracting type of wide receivers seth european tyler boyd person pull out some numbers is with them without green for half the year almost identical twenty three percent target share with him twenty one with how wide receiver twelve with why received sixteen without what if anything these numbers kind of say hey a._j. Green taken coverage off tyler boyd make some actually a bit better. We have the new offense going in place in cincinnati. That's a little bit exciting right. We don't want to see this. Marvin lewis led offense or whoever was still calling the plays out there with his production last year. We're going in the middle of round five again. You can't go wrong definitely more of a full point p._r. Person and d._j. More someone. I think that we typically wouldn't necessarily really like maybe i'm a little bit higher on him than you are. South ten out of fifteen games with more than five five or more targets targets so two out of every three games essentially ten out of fifteen games five or more targets he had with a rookie as a rookie he had over eighty targets and over fifty receptions. Those are good numbers any way anyhow you slice licensed right i mean over eighty targets as a rookie going in the the middle of fifth round and to the fifth round they lose devin funchess. He only had two touchdowns last year so these got room for improvement there. If christian mccaffrey takes any kind of <hes> <hes> backwards you know doesn't catch and good as many targets it could go to d._j. More i like the upside they're potentially. I know the carolinas not the best passing team and and cam newton but they got no one else yeah. I mean i'm i'm not i don't hate d._j. More and if somebody takes him i'm not going to say oh. That was a bad pick. I mean but at the same time. I don't see myself really having any shares d._j. More because i always feel like number one there's always somebody or multiple in any league that are going to be much higher more more than me and he's the kind of player where you wanna be earlier to the party then too late so somebody else might pick him before me and he and he might have a really good season he might get over a thousand yards. Seven catches are so and you get up to six or seven touchdowns and that's fine. I'm i'm not going to be the one as early enough to the party on d._j. More i just i don't like the offense i don't like cam newton cam newton for quarterbacks but i don't like a receiver that's in an offense led by cam newton because of the inconsistency and his accuracy issues and i just think like you said the d._j. More is going to have real issues catching touchdowns. You really need need d._j. More if you're taking him in the fifth round over you know some of the other players that are gonna be in somebody like a jarvis landry. You really need d._j. More to make the jump to to at least seventy five catches right well. I mean we're talking about the middle of the fifth round me he if he went up to seventy five catches that's that's a huge homerun mid to get to get return on value. I could say a just a modest increase would probably do it at the fifty five catch mark three more touchdowns in the same numbers as last year might do it. Carolina only had one hundred less passing yards then then new england last year with thirty nine hundred forty three carolina align was a fifteenth with thirty eight forty seven so you know last year with north turner chris mccaffrey. I think they got a better offense and we all remember now. All arguments you made are usually ones that come out of my mouth right like i don't like carolina and i don't like cam newton. I don't think decorated a passing quarterback but we do have to realize from fancy standpoint. Which is what. I want to try and do what i tried to do. Better better at this year being objectively looking at some of these numbers. There's no way to slice it that d._j. More could be on the verge of over twenty percent target share because if no what else pass to greg olson is another foot injury away from not being around any super old. He's like at least thirty. Five punches is no longer there. I mean they have have cursing meal the christian mccaffrey yeah. Here's a question and i've had a couple of basketball draft where i've been in the position of maybe aby taken d._j. More and i'm taking off the neck ler over him of reached a little bit off. Find myself reaching a little bit on awesome eker because at the point you know somebody of the players that are going in that area. We're talking the evan ingram's the mike williams lamar miller l. sean jefferies. Maybe like a quarterback and one quarterback league. What are your thoughts on. I mean i know you're pretty much your little higher on d._j. More than me would you take him over austin actor assuming the news melvin gordon is still he's. He's not coming back for a while. Yeah no i probably wouldn't i'd probably take equity yeah. That's that's kind of where i'm out with with d._j. More as i i respect i respect the opinion that he's he could have a breakout year and then he has a lot of things working in his favor. I'm just i don't want to try and catch lightning in a bottle with d._j. More i would much rather take a a more proven commodity austin necker who oh i know i can use as a running back especially when when running backs in that range are very few and far between it's kind of a scarce a scarce commodity. There's not too many running backs after the fourth round that i really like yeah i mean i i would take over him as i just mentioned so that you know there goes with that in but i think at some point to remember that if you just keep on getting a bunch one hundred eighty two two hundred and point players then are you really capping off the high upside of your not. Are you really elevating your team because a lot of times it's easy to find one hundred sixty two hundred eighty point playoff a waivers so i think the fifth rounds a good. It's bought take a couple of these shots finding lightning in a bottle or things a little bit of an aggressive statement for someone who had over eighty targets and over fifty catches last year here. I feel like in most cases. If this was a player on a better offense i mean we we saw what i think. Amari cooper had a better year but we saw what amari cooper was going after his rookie year and and so forth so. I think that maybe you can make the case that because of his offense that's kind of baked into his a._d._p. Lasts in terms of the middle ground is awesome. That cler talked about it on the last episode. I believe is the opening question question as the best deal and fantasy right. Now i do realize is a big risk because melvin gordon still has several weeks come back but but if we're in the fourth round i mean what do you have to lose. You potentially getting an rb one that late. What do you have to lose again can going for upside awesome. Necker had nine touches a game with melvin gordon in twenty. When melbourne wasn't playing you know he's going six. Six point zero six to me that is such a no brainer and that's going up by the day literally by the day. I'm surprised it hasn't gone up faster. I'm willing to take him over. James is white five. Oh one right now. That's where i'm at with the nectar. So what's your thoughts on my comment on over james wet at five a one really tough. I wasn't prepared to answer that question. I don't know they're they feel like completely opposite. The types of players like awesome clara is is more. I mean kind of on a lower ceiling higher floor variety james. Why is somebody who has an extremely extremely low floor but somebody that you you could see after a week four or five being a top three fantasy running back. He has that kind of upside because of the monster games he's capable of having in that offense and it's gonna feature him early and often in certain situations so i would probably disagree. I would probably lean towards james wiping wipe it. I mean there. It's the gap between the two of my is razor thin there. I don't know it's like the very close yeah and that's probably the spot that i definitely anticipate actor moving up to if you're if you're drafting labor day weekend and and you know gorn still not back and it still news of him i mean you can make the argument. That echo is going to be the third round i mean. Do you know like the end of the third around guests. This is this is a a._d._p. That is still not you know that's kind of in the middle like people are like okay. I'm gonna take a little bit of arrest but not too much of a risk because if gordon's not there and labor day weekend in game is next week and digit in echoes going to get fifteen seventeen touches again. He's off by two rounds for sure. I think the one arguments we may james favors. We already know what james white is and it's kind of like the good thing about also the bad thing bound the bad part of it is he'll have those games where you know he's just not as effective because he's not going to run the ball but we also know is upside is attributed mainly to the fact that he can be an absolute p._r. Monster whereas austin ecuador ecuador austin i mean and what if justin jackson comes out and just looks like a better version of austin equitas awesome do one thing really really really well. James white has an elite leap fantasy skill and that's why in the fifth round right now i would lean towards james white close. Call indefinitely could happen happened with justin jackson. I mean have you got going on especially because of where you're starting these draft capital just jackson in the ninth tenth round is an an easy other person and pick up. I don't think justin jackson. I watched the first preseason game the ones out there. We'll all the ones that philip rivers looks great in the past. Now justin jackson might end up winning goal line situation which could cause an issue. I am definitely aware of that but in that offense with philip rivers there's enough touches to the running backs just like new england them new england the chargers. There's new england saints. They just use your running backs and they're going to be a lotta. Hurry up situations where they pass down to the five yard line of hurry up my already already be in the package offers. A package might stay in there for an inside handoff draw so anyhow late relate rounds. I guess we'll look okay kind of middle of the sixth round on property. You know a lot of ground to cover their obviously but i guess when we look at the late rounds. Is there any player that you know. Maybe it was going much later a couple of weeks ago that has seen his stock rise in similar ways. The tar girly stock arisen or kerryon johnson stock has risen as a late round player that you really liked or or have light for a while that stock continues to rise in this kind of edging into the middle middle round range yeah the one person that has been disappointingly going up as christian kirk again just a month ago. He was going almost a full round later. He's crept up into the six round. He was kind of towards the back end of the seventh round was a month month ago earlier. In the season. I mean he was much later and of course you know we're doing. We're doing podcast offseason so you know maybe can't realistically think think of something. That's happening in in june to stay status quo. I don't really know what information has come out to lead. This big. Rise is maybe people are just getting more excited for the cardinals and the offense in general. I watched the ones on their first preseason game. Come out kamari looked good had full command of the offense commentators even mention and this is sometimes gray white listen to some of the local colored people that they have some insight in terms of the day-to-day and training camp practices that we might not here on national radio and they were saying that there are several times even during practise at color murray was telling larry fitzgerald where to go because remember this same offense from college. Calamari is familiar with phillips clings berry. That's why they brought him. In so calamari has full control of this offense almost from the get-go even to the point where he's controlling doing larry fitzgerald and you know the natural spot to go would be a guest the second year player who had a pretty decent year <hes> <hes> one of the reasons why i liked him and i still do. He's going six point twelve. I will not take him in the sixth round our only take him after the sixth round right now the big run-up is a little bit of a concern but you know i still like him. The arizona cardinals threw the ball only four hundred ninety five times last year. That's at four hundred ninety five times the fourth lowest in the n._f._l. Compared to a team like pull up the pittsburgh steelers because they were one of the biggest people passing the ball in terms of targets philadelphia was over six hundred twenty kansas city. He was over six hundred and thirty for example eating cleveland over six hundred and in arizona was under five hundred just just as an example so there our natural like his natural inflation of just more passes going out to the offense without any increase in targets here percentage which which is fourteen will automatically make his numbers go up just run them passing the ball five hundred seventy five times now ler chelsea going the full round later and and obviously it's a thousand years old but across the board is numbers were borderline significantly better than christian kirk if the pass is do go if that number does go up the offense is an offense this year. That's going to throw the ball. Mourners plays more tambo do you are you pretty convinced. Okay christian kirksey better than bits gerald. No i don't. I don't think you could say that either. I mean when i did the numbers and the projections one of the things that i quickly realized to buy just keeping up up larry fitzgerald's percentage was that he's going to have over one hundred targets himself. I think this is a great wide receiver combo to consider after. I don't know how many touchdowns you're going to score so that would be the biggest concern of getting too too wide receivers and same offense but in terms of maybe not knowing if if one of these players will do really well if christian kirk will take the next step or flerfu shows still command a lot of target share percentage but to your point clean you know just giving even larry fitzgerald a natural increase in in targets and keeping the same targets here percentage looks good too yep. I agree with a one question on. We're christian kirsch going so will fuller go and seven oh six. We both have talked about will fuller laura lot. Are you taking christian cars over willfuller a super tough question. I'm going to take christian kirk fuller probably half the time like if i had the opportunity i don't. I don't think i want shares of i._m. Like every single time but it was really hard for. I mean and put willfuller on this list because he has been kinda. Someone i've been targeting but then i quickly realized that i've been targeted best ball leagues for the obvious reason of of you know whenever he's healthy. He'll play when in various blow up game great auto puts them in in a season long league. You know he played fourteen games aimed. We then tendon seven. I think whoa fuller is a great like if you don't get d._j. More maybe go after have to walk fuller for a big blowout season but i'm definitely concerned with the injury factor there and so decided not to add to this list. I don't know i don't know if he's necessarily surly someone. I'm going outta my weight target which was essentially what i wanted this list to more or less be any anybody else for late around receivers that you're targeting before we wrap up yeah so when you start getting past the eighth fish round ninth round. You know there's so so many people that you could make an argument for i guess i i don't know i mean <hes> so my the person is marquee value scanning green bay nine point zero. Three kinda surprised that he wasn't going a little bit higher. <hes> drama alison seems to be going ahead of him. M._v._s. s. is ben listed as playing with the twos and too wide receiver sets retu- much into that because green bay obviously is going to come out and a lot of three wide receiver sets. It's the slot has been a good position. Which is why maybe drama allison's. A._d._p.'s a bit higher of course you know in our draft grid if you haven't downloaded that we talk about combos to get drama alison n._b._s. Especially this late in that type of offense is great combo to get so he had a lot of games where he just didn't show up because of a rookie situation or non he had he had eight out of his sixteen games half of his games with three or fewer targets so you know snap shares an issue getting on the fields maybe consistencies in issue with route running but it seems like he's playing well. Aaron rodgers is taught them up. He seems to be playing with two receivers sets so i see that maybe the inconsistency not being as much of a factor so yeah definitely definitely a good potential obviously obviously the upsides there and that offense but also if you're in a league with a keeper where you can keep one player at the round you draft him marquis marquez velez gambling n._b._s. c._b._s. Is a not a bad player. I mean this is point in the draft especially if you're in keeper league where that kind of factors in if all things are equal to players <hes> i want to ask you if you take over vallas gambling <hes> nicole hairy going ten point zero two. Would you take him over scandal. Yes or no or taking m._b. Almost zero interesting to kill harry at this point. I don't know i just emmanuel sanders the opposite of of scanlon when we talk about our ben strategy and this is the point draft where you're trying to fill out your bench manual sanders more of the higher floor solid week to week variety eddie less volatility know to expect sanders or scheduling. I'm most likely going to take scant ling sanders definitely a good plug and play a bench guy as we talked about in our last episode listed on our draft read but i don't think he's necessarily got enough you know. I don't know excitement or juice for me to take him over n._b._s. Like i could probably still replace sanders. A couple rounds later so i'll be i'll be l. Let sanders fall on my lap and that's typically what you want to do with the plug and play guys all right well that wraps up the late round players. We've uncovered the elites. The middle rounds and the late round players more to come sure these you know this is going to be very fluid situation. Everybody stock is moving up and downs. We'll have more more communist for sure going pretty busy next two or three weeks but you want to add anything we less yeah. Just just want to follow up. You know thanks for everyone to who has gone on in downloaded the draft grid you've gone to talking heads nation dot com or you just click the link from our website n._f._l. N._f._l. Talking heads dot com. You can join and get the draft bread with just released releasing to point out by the time you hear this. You might get 2.0 viewpoint. Oh draft grid. It's a step by step guide who to take and what rounds who to avoid. It's got the q._b. Strategy when to take the the q._b.'s in one q._b. and q._b. Leagues everyone from the elites streamers as well as our bench tragedy which we've talked about the plug and play the high upside aside in my new wave liquid bench assets so <hes> go ahead and download that talking heads nation dot com and you also get to join our private group message so draft season is almost here nothing better than preparing for your keepers. You're in sees in the middle of a draft. You can message set and i are private group message. We absolutely love helping out everyone seeing a lot of new names. Come back to the group which is exciting writing. Go ahead and download enjoined that again at talking heads nation dot com. We're the n._f._l. Talking heads and thanks everyone for listening. Thanks so much for listening to this episode of the n._f._l. Talking heads fantasy football podcast show with your host jeff carrier and seth while we'll catch you next time.