Sanders could overtake Biden's hold on the black vote

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Welcome to the live from meet the press I'm carried in. Here's a number of the day for you. It is somewhere around one third. That's how much support we found. Among black primary voters for both Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders according to new data from our latest. Nbc News Wall Street Journal Poll and that is a big deal because up until pretty recently Joe Biden was leading with black voters by a huge margin and sort of the conventional wisdom was at sanders past struggles with black voters in two thousand sixteen could be his. Achilles heel in twenty twenty. Now you may be wondering wait. It's a pull. Why give me just kind of big numbers? So here's the deal. This was an oversample of black voters which means we sampled more than we normally do in a national poll that means a larger sample size which means a lower margin of air so we had a total of two hundred and fifty two registered voters were African American in the sample that yielded a margin of error of six point one seven percentage points. That's pretty high but it's lower than it would be in just a regular national poll if we wanted to look at black voters. But here's the big bud. Among just black primary voters in the Democratic primary will there were only one hundred thirty nine respondents which made the margin of error eight point three one and that's very high so high that it's really difficult to draw too many conclusions with a margin of error that big the difference between say one candidate getting four percent in one candidate. Getting six percents is pretty much meaningless so we kept our data released pretty general for that very reason. Yes in our coverage. We did publish that. The pull found Joe Biden. Got The support of thirty one percent. Sanders got twenty nine percent but that includes a huge caveat that we can't be that confident about the precise level of support that either candidate has. But here's why we reported these results at all. What we do know is that these numbers represent outside the margin of error. A huge boost for Bernie Sanders. Who Trailed Biden as much as thirty points in all the data that we put together from our polls in two thousand nineteen and that's important and consequential enough that it's definitely worth talking at least generally about these numbers with black voters even if we can't be super precise about the horse race and we can also tell this from the data no other candidate in the poll really showed any signs of life with black voters at all. The one possible exception would be Mike Bloomberg. Who's maybe got a pulse butts? I will note that. This poll was in the field before the democratic debate on Wednesday when he took a lot of incoming over the issues of race so there could be some fluctuations in the future now also in this survey we learned that black voters overall are not pretty keen onto Democratic candidates in particular. I mean closure and Pete Buddhist those voters overall now. We're talking about the larger sample here of two hundred and fifty ish black voters rather than the smaller one of one thirty nine who are voting in the Democratic primary but those voters were actually more likely to express discomfort with the candidacies of Buddha Jr enclosure then comfort with them which is a really bad place to be a week before the South Carolina. Primary and we can change until Super Tuesday. What's does all of it mean. Well bottom line. It's just very good. News for Bernie Sanders who appears to turn things around with a huge voter bloc. That picked Hillary Clinton over him by something like a three to one margin in two thousand sixteen. And it's tough news for anybody else except for Joe Biden because there are challenges ahead in the diverse states in the primary to come. That's for us. We'll be back Monday. If you'd like to hear more of this free audio briefing you can always l. at us on favorite podcast APP. Hey it's MSNBC's Chris as this week on my podcast wise is happening. I'll be talking with the hilarious and brilliant writer. Daniel lavery about his new book about life as a trans man growing up in an evangelical household. And the thing that I was so grateful to all these trans people in my life for was this like. We have all tried this. No one will ever be able to tell you to your satisfaction. If you are or you aren't you can try to chase that dragon but there will not be that moment so you can investigate these questions further. You can consider the options that are available to you. You don't have to do anything if not doing something becomes unbearable to you. You can try something but it really is. You will have to be the person who makes that. Call this week on. Why is this happening search for? Why is this happening? Wherever you're listening right now and subscribe.

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