Getting Ready for the House to Return

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The welcome to this week's episode of Blue Skies Strategy Groups Canadian. podcast what you need to know about this week in Canadian politics. I'm Alison Fair and joining me. This week. My colleagues Cameron Hallstrom Neo Brody and Jeff Turner Morning morning a- rate we are the final week of they break Before the House returns yesterday was kind of a political news. Drop rate as we were all kind of leaving work and all that it Kinda went back to our conversation last week about the Conservatives neo. Want to start with you. How disappointing is it for the Conservatives to have peer step boat note and how to have this candidate used to be a staffer out on public television saying what he sitting on helpful being honest with themselves? Listen a full respect to appear He does have a young family notionally looking at me. He said on his His statement yesterday looking ahead. He's he may be out of the house for the next eight years Starting on June twenty seven whenever even before that because he's gotTa start campaigning for the leadership so him him Not Running. There's a bit of a surprise of especially when he built up a team. Well you know going back to Mr Sheer step down. I think every conservative understood that there were two two heavyweights lurking out there. Rana and Run Ambrose and Peter McKay and with Peter Mackay in the ring You have to as a candidate before you put down two hundred thousand dollars as one hundred thousand dollar refundable fundable deposit see a path to victory And you have to want to go through the six months of leadership campaigning which are two separate things pillow? They're linked And shelling out two hundred thousand dollars for a clear path to victory and spending six months of your life working around the clock seven days a week to convince membership to to support you and your bid is is something you don't take on lightly I I read in one of the newspaper reports yesterday. This morning that The Joe Clark leadership campaign campaign the entrance fee was five hundred bucks back in the seventies You know I don't think you'd get away with that now because you'd have six hundred people perhaps running. I'm sure or you could buy a house with that in nineteen concert maybe maybe elsewhere. But you don't just throw two hundred thousand dollars away frivolously So it's it's it's a bit disappointing to see the the field narrow if I can say like that we have there's a candidate who's been on TV. well as I said last week's podcast there are three types of candidates. They're the people who could win. The general general election perhaps not win the leadership. People could win. The leadership necessarily win the general election. And then there's a wires and as we've seen with Pierre the era and And some other people who've said that they are considering running there's considering running and then there's actually as I said laying down three hundred thousand dollars with with three thousand signatures and Nothing it can't be done but those are hurdles Jeff. What do you make of yesterday's development? We'll just picking up on where we just left off. I think the important thing and I and I saw all name micro Mike Moffitt. This morning was asking these questions and as material guy they resonated with me. which is? Is this the tenure Granik Allen of the federal race until Doug Ford would not have one that That leadership race two years ago the thirteen percent of of of the ninety seven percent of tenured. Granny gallons vote went to Doug Ford which ultimately was just enough to be Christine Elliott. So while while this guy is on outlier and as being roundly criticized appropriately including and and and I will I will appreciate by conservatives and more principled conservatives who are trying to bring this conversation Into a more sustainable political place Going forward from two thousand twenty It's not to be underestimated that. I don't think he's running win. He's running to make a king and The movement that he is saying is behind him is fine without and we'll fund that and we'll so help him get there and the question will be whether whether he turns around well whether the eventual winner and turns around and then ignores them and has a schism awesome that follows like in Ontario Context Patrick Round before him and Doug Ford after him. So is this. Just a repeat of traditional cycle is what I'm kind of wondering But I just. It certainly isn't helpful. But at least I mean maybe from the outside and and the the opponent opponents point of view I do hope that this is actually just helping the Conservative Party really understand what's at stake going forward from two thousand twenty on in their political image Mitch political man if I remember correctly When Pierre the whole notion of peer running you a lot of liberals in the office we're going yes for sure for sure? There's no doubt that Pierre Paul is vicious political animals and so his ambition obviously obviously got fired up immediately and to your earlier point. He assembled a team. I've heard it That he actually had a venue booked for the Saturday to launch his campaign. Yeah so you know It's clear that either he had that sort of You know really make or break it moment personally about whether he was into this this or not appealing bag. It has his ambition God and a little bit better of him when he actually took a look at his family's situation and what that meant But yeah that's hard when you assemble the team of not just like one or two people who are out singing your praises every once in a while because they already had a TV spot. But you've got John Baird to compromise his integrity on his reporting. You've got Jenny Byrne you've got you've got all these people who've lined up behind him who are heavyweights. They must be feeling a little bit of a sting of disappointment to Especially if they've put their reputations in the life of the guy so so I'm curious to see whether this is the end of that story or whether there's a bit more that comes out and buy more I mean well. Is that other reason falling behind another candidate totally normal. Hello Is another reason Something else we'll find out something else. Cam where did you make of it. I I've had a couple of thoughts on this play. Apostate now Now I'm one of the I'm new view of the belief that I'm taking someone out their word when they say it's family because I've been through three these races. I felt burned three of them. I've I've seen the toll that it takes on a candidate and I understand people's view on that and it's not that I don't want to believe Mr Pov. It's just that egg egg jeff pension attention. There was a venue booked for tomorrow book for the weekend. That's laying out his laying on expenses. You've got Jenny Byrne you've got you've got John Baird. This went somewhat further down the road than most would at this point and I would I put that together with something else. That happened yesterday Alex gone of global found online. That they're on youtube the Josh Array hacked she posted a video saying that he was in that was up online for full hour for it got pulled because with after he made the announcement he was out so obviously again he laid out money. He paid a production studio. They did the video. Didn't both they went all the way down the road and all of a sudden Yankees. He's out that's too you know it's starting to honestly this racist starting to get weird to me because it's like it's almost like a real bad b movie movie Bat. Be Bad murder mystery movie severance all together in a room and they don't know each other and all of a sudden body start dropping and everyone has their suspects send. Next person goes is the suspect that turns out it was some but it was it was some bellboy named avenue. All of them out to get them but it seems like it just makes no sense of all. These people are dropping like flies in this race and so to me. It's good for the for the for the part of those looking to have some renewal the other side of this. This is a and I couldn't help remark on this yesterday. You've had a leadership race that's been set up in a way. At least it's it's worked out so far. Where people like Rona Rona? Ambrose Josh or a pure Paulie Gee I'll feel can't make a run at it or they don't feel they don't feel they should be in that race yet. I'M GONNA he uses name. Michelle did Kerry feels that. He's at home but he apparently feels okay to be in this race. I would take that as a problem. I don't see it as a good thing for the conservative moving because if you are trying to move into this next into into into into the present and have that evolution. This debate probably shouldn't be happening. And while I really appreciate officiate. What basically every everyone in the race came out and denounced this gentleman when it happened? Good on the Michelle Garner. I loved her comments Giddy up. I agree with her. She should the race but I but other because Geoffrey touched on it he pointed the Boiler Doug Ford and Patrick Brown Andrew Scheer last time it was Brad trost the same thing and who is behind Aka Brad trost himself is chairing the campaign and fundraising his former campaign manager ten. Grand counts warmers. Calm calm person is on there. They brought the band back together. And what and the one thing that bothers me about this is that a lot of the candidates came out and denounced him and rightfully so. Oh but not a single one of them came out and said not a single one said if you support him. I don't want your vote because this this is gonna be a ranked ballot and the old show the door speech door somewhere in the spring that nobody got shown but not not only really do I denounce you. I don't want your backing if you feel you should support him. I don't want your vote but no give Nielsen time. Kingmaker possible really no. No liberal in DP leadership candidate has ever pointed the finger at You know ANTIFA or Communist nist people in their own party and said if you believe in Bringing down the capitalist society by putting a mask on your face and throwing stones at the police in downtown on Toronto. We don't want you actually actually actually. I've I've been campaign that's done. Just stop by but to your point the differences the socialist caucus quote quote unquote. ADP is nowhere near as well organized or as coherent as the conservative movement and can be both a principal at a tactical thing. I if I could step back up a little higher level listening to this I think we all are familiar with the term the nature of Horsley vacuum right. And I think what we're experiencing. I think it's short term. We're experiences the short-term vacuum there's these SPEC disease gravitational forces out there that are the the the Ron Ambrose Asia rays of the world and Peter Mackay who tweeted that he's in a week ago and nobody's heard from him since which is odd supposed installers? And that's what it is too. Yeah no need for him to jump into the middle of all all this craziness. This week I guess but anyway nature evacuating what we're experiencing right. Now is the vacuum of those those big players who have been trying to get attracted in which begs the question of wiry sorry experienced in this vacuum. Why are some people saying out while some people getting out and behind the scenes? My only estimation is it means that somebody is either either. This is going to be a pure McKay coronation and they're are doing that work right now. The submarine warfare. We talked about last week to get The various ships to head back to harbor so that they don't get sucked And or there is another other person out there making calls and letting it be known that they might be interested in the scaring people away. I'm not gonNA use the name is. It's been reported this week but I I don't think that's true but I I really wonder. I think this is more. This is more that something is happening where somebody is coming. I think with all of these big names now being out of the fold. I think this is now becoming a Peter MacKay coronation. They're going to be sensitive to that So but but sensitive means you either like you embrace it and you take it to the finish line and you get coronated and it's awesome and then you just keep that momentum going to try to win as prime minister or you're worried about trying to stack somebody else so you have a couple of foils to work against and who a few commend folding into your camp to me. That's the only scenario under which you avoid the kingmaker scenario with Mr dicarlo. Yup is that if somebody went on the ballot because whenever they brought the table didn't matter because someone else else carried more than half the vote in that honestly got much more like in the scenario. Because I don't you just look at the numbers. Just the math of what it takes to win a leadership race like this. It's hard to put. It's hard to put someone eat enough that vote to keep Peter Mackay under fifty percent right now neil for this all this going in the Conservative Party. What what did they do for this? Take this and go into the House of Commons. We got everyone coming back on Monday. What did the Conservatives now need to do with all that's going on with the leadership race and folk turn to the focus in the House of Commons leaning to fulfil their role as the official opposition Mister Trudeau Trudeau has set out today. a guiding light of whatever he's talked about it yesterday compromise and consultation and sunshine China blue skies. I think it was a wash. Rinse repeat of his two thousand fifteen caucus Message before the house comes. Got Back to work after the last election It'll it'll it'll remain to be seen whether he actually follows through on that Make sure that Piece of legislation or piece of policy. Also that are trying to be put through the comments that the Conservatives may have legitimate gripes against that they hold it up with every tool in the in the opposition toolbox box in a in a minority parliament and And get through really truly. Just get through to the end of June when a new leader emerges Don't don't don't break anything. Don't break anything. You breakage. Bought it true that Jeff. So we have the leadership race with the Conservatives Neal's neal's At vices to just stay the course until June twenty-seventh what do the liberals now have to do as government Coming into this Correct that's a good rule to follow for all all government activity. I guess so coming into this week so it's back to school season And I think members from all caucuses got a little taste of things in December but I would just call that a little taste of things that was a a flash in the PAN for a a couple of days. Everybody was still very fresh off the election. So now we're into the real now we're into the real school year And so a couple of things one they we have a throne speech at Sylvia's be passed. That confidence vote. We all seem to sort of forgotten about it but we'll be I believe probably priority number one. They have to finish debate on that before they can move on much else And I think it just begs the question. We all have a presumed outcome The block of made their friendly noises But that was also almost two months ago and so I'm just curious to see whether that debate takes a weird turn Or whether it just continues and finishes as expected so people can get on other issues. The legislative docket is not going to be happy. Can't be happy for for reasons. I think our listeners understand which is if you put a bill on the table you lose control of it so you better have your ducks in a row in terms of WHO's going to support it or you're pretty darn close with some amendments that you might make once it's on the table but you need to know that a bill isn't just going to take on a life of its own and then pass it a form that you don't like as the government because it it got hijacked by other people's interests So legislatively. You'RE GONNA see very few which means house won't have a whole lot of debate. I don't think actually I think they're going to be quite thin on those things. I'm curious whether there'll be more recesses and stuff which people might actually get behind wind because the other thing. That minority parliament does put butts in seats and And just you know our listeners. Speaking from some experience and working in the in the beginning minority thirty years and then -tario serving cabinet ministers in those capacities. I had a boss WHO's ministerial office was five blocks away from Queens Park and that he didn't set foot in Senate for a year and a half except after seven PM. Because we simply could not do a stakeholder meeting we couldn't do we can sign. Correspondence couldn't brief the minister on on subjects. Unless it was coffee shop nearby that you guys could meet. It was in the lot it was in the line of the legislature Or if we were lucky and I know West blocks is a little short on these things that meeting room nearby so members and ministers are going to have to get a new way of operating that they may not be used to after a term my majority government. I think that applies opposition members as well because they got to be in the seats to and for ministers. It's a little bit more difficult because ministers have obviously additional duties in a regular member And when you're in a minority and you need to make sure that the all this is coming from a place where you can't have any websites you can't lose emotion. You can't have a bill. Bill voted down at bare minimum. It's just embarrassing. And you'll be you'll be criticized rightly for it for days or weeks to come absolutely so so you can't make that mistake because I mistaken either just embarrassing best-case scenario worst-case scenario can drop the government I think that's where the conservatives coming and trying to make sure that they're disciplined enough to actually actually accidentally caused the fall of the government. Same for the new Democrats or anybody else for that matter but this is a numbers game at the end of the day. It means that there will always have to be you just one more liberal member within fifty meters of the Chamber at any given time than there are opposition someone who watches it at allow me to figure out a WHO's who in the House of Commons because we'll see a lot more cam. I WANNA get your take. What is the new Democrats have to do coming in? Starting Monday I visited Democrats. It's one one of the big things it's going to be cutting through the din right now because being the fourth party it's trying to make. How do you stand out in the agenda because obviously the the conservative leadership race taking up a lot of the debate a lot of the area now in the room Nafta two point will become four. Parliamentary government's said they're going to do the ways and means motion on Monday in Jerusalem. The bill on Wednesday so that'll be relatively consequential in that. Debate comes forward. So what do you do to try to cut through and still try to advance your goals and we've got a good clue that yesterday The MVP DP announced they're going to be bringing forward a bill on national farm Macaire renounced stats going. Outside doesn't matter the point is that you're putting you're putting it on the agenda and they have a private member's spot in the first fifteen it'll come up right away and that will that will help push the trial would get their way through this. I think what's going to be interesting for them. How Oh you stay disciplined your own message what you WanNa do not get caught up when everything also tap? I think that's one of the hard things in a minority because things do just go sideways some things do get out of hand and it just part of the nature of the beast and I think Jeff's point about counting counting heads and making sure people butts in seats. I personally what I expect to see happen. I expect the government to be more aggressive at this point because they know they've got six months where the Conservatives are really gonNA wait not to bring down the government. We saw this with Mr Match. He became leader of in the last minority. Where the the Liberals put for this beautiful approach of we're GonNa vote against you just not enough butts in the seats to actually take you down? And and that spawned one of the greatest peace political satire in in history in my view of Rick Mercer bringing full Baptist choir singing back debt backing down and loving it. It was but that's what it was like. We're going to oppose you but not so far as to risk ourselves and when you tell the butts and seats piece that also one of my favorite moments in the house Back in two thousand nine One day one day in a house we notice that the Liberals had very few members actually in the House so pat Martin at the time raised raised up in the house and moved a motion to formally make Jack late and literally official opposition for the day and it nearly passed because the liberals were sent scrambling back into the room to stop it right but the fact is stuff like this can happen now as you kinda have to be on your toes and be well organized and yeah. If if you're if you're in DP and your position you have more power in that sense but you have to be dishes and how you use it. Yeah and some silly fun too. Who I think is what your example just highlights there will be those those silly fun moments and there will be the We're actually trying to put you over Put you over on something that you don't want to talk for both Mr Mr Blanchette it's continuing the momentum that they got in the in the election You know if we you can cast our minds back to the end of August. People were predicting the end EP. Getting zero seats and through the sheer power of Mr Personality which nobody had seen up until the election. Actually I don't think we'd see during the leadership but disappeared shortly thereafter. He whether he brought the party back from the brink of destruction. Or Not that I that I. That's probably too strong a phrase but again Mr Blanchette as well he You know the Bloc Quebecois always essentially gone and through a variety of whatever reasons as a some of it being his personality They became the third party and And for the Liberals going into this next Next section of this parliament arledge. He's caucus management It's been Eight years majority for for the Conservatives for for the Liberals There's a certain Lackadaisical equalness if I can say that of worrying about the what goes on in the House of Commons and what goes on your own caucus when there's a majority and there's no real fear of of losing anything anything Getting new MP's and new ministers accustomed and all the MP's and the minister oldness sorry experienced in peace and experienced ministers there's back into the mindset of every day counts. When you wake up in the morning you have to have your head on and and come to the House of Commons because there is the work work of governing to do which is maintaining an Blah with block? I think we need to keep very conscious. wiki pointed them as a wildcard. This whole setup. What they're gonNA do legislatively is going to be for me is going to be fascinating because naturally with to make someone who would oppose this Nafta bill coming up yet? Francois go formula goes where he said. Don't don't you dare you back off right and see so. They've always taken the approach while we follow the National Assembly. Well if the national do the buck the trend here do they. Not I think this to me is a real wild card. This whole thing which really is going to make it interesting to see how this how this parliament actually survives I was involved in a podcast yesterday with Another partisan group and the serve on the panel said. He was putting money on the next election. Being made you you know what was the block and how they operate I can see it because they're the ones who least want to go to an election have the the most to lose because they have the lease organization lease ability and frankly they're happy where they are and they have most wiggle room to actually make it happen because they the there are so many me thinks they can vote on that are very inconsequential to their voters. Just have to see. I'm looking forward to the mall coming back. I'm actually looking forward to hearing from all again. 'cause it's been quiet Royat. I mean just seeing the prime minister out and all that kind of stuff. So it'll be nice to see sheer in saying and launched in May everyone back in the House of Commons so that'll be exciting and learning all the new. MP's on a permanent basis. So Jeff Cam Nealy thank you so much again and thank you to the listeners for tuning into blue skies strategy groups team of political observers for this week's a Canadian. podcast what you need to know about politics this week in Canada Louis. Guy Strategy Group is one of Canada's leading public affairs firms for government relations lobbying strategic communications advice across Canada visit I blue sky strategy group Dot blue-sky Strategy Group is a proud member of the Global Communications Alliance

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