Betting the Board with Brian Blessing Tour Championship & NFL Preseason Week 3
Overpaying the book dot com or your one stop shop for sports betting news and information. I posted my updated college. Football power ratings yesterday. Today i posted my top three over and top three under season win total best. That's also a college football situational piece for the week. One matchups will have a great tour championship preview preview from james mazzola later on today. We've got a ton of n._f._l. Stuff from danny borg's. I've got a couple of weeks. Three preseason previews up as well we've got w._n._b._a. It'd be a <hes> soccer. Tennis will have 'em leader next week. There is no m._m._a. About this weekend what nascar later in the week as well so plenty great stuff going on over at the book dot com one thing. I want to mention here real quickly. The topic today show is that when it comes to the playback of the show if you go through our blog talk radio dot com account. You're just going to get the unedited version of the program that also goes to i tunes. We also have a set up where i cut the show into segments which go on speaker spotify google podcasts. I tunes iheartradio. Those are edited a little bit for some additional additional volume and things of that sort so the uncut show. Also i do this via blog talk radio. The segments go to itunes as well as google podcasts spotify iheartradio all those via our spreaker account. Everything posted over at bain dot com. I don't know what the times are like for everything to pop up on those different podcast outlets but you can get the full show and the segments right away over at bank dot com right after the show so something for you to keep in mind there as you know this edition of the book present by our friends over at the sl sportsbook b._t._v. and the number two hundred is that promo code one hundred percent deposit match bonus with a sportsbook arts book one hundred percent deposit match bonus for the live casino at bet the sl. It's only a game on until you bet at two guests on the program here today. Hey we start things off with brian blessing the host sportsbook radio and vegas hockey hotline right. How's it going today man. I'm good at him. How you doing buddy here we go again. Uh yes sir absolutely i know that <hes> it's balls to the wall nose to the grindstone for us here for the next several months with football and then of course basketball and in college basketball running so deep in the month of march and april so i guess alaska this man <hes> the lead up to all of these seasons all these different things going on. How crazy busy has it been for you lately. Oh it's different. There's no doubt i mean you go through a couple of months where <hes> you know baseball baseball baseball baseball <hes> but then you know i guess you get into july and all of a sudden odds to win conferences and divisions and things of that that nature and then you start doing your college previews and you start talking about football again. When football's is the vapor trail so it's fun to start talking football again and you you know now preseason football and <hes> we got the college football games on saturday night here we go well speaking of those previous over on our bang book youtube page brian's been nice enough to be doing conference breakdowns for us s._e._c. Coming either tonight or tomorrow over there and he'll have a preview for us of this tour championship get chip event and brian. This is much much different here this year because we have such a dramatically different format for the tour you're championship in two thousand nineteen filler listeners in on what's so different about this year's final playoff event. Well basically what they did. <hes> they made all the points throughout the course of the year then trim the four playoff event down to three quadrupled what drubel the points in the first two and then now at this late number one who's justin thomas will start the events at ten ten under parts and he gets a two shot hit start on patrick kelly and all the way back to the thirtieth competitor and the those guys guys at the bottom. We'll start at even par so you know you're rewarded for what you've done. Most of the season but the reality of it is the playoff convent's are so big where patrick read and even can't leave the swoop themselves way up top because points were quadrupled old in the two previous tour events so it it's interesting now. <hes> and i think these are kind of some of the things we always talk about adam in terms of trying to get the best the number and we did this in fact i. I'm pretty positive <hes> on our video last week bankbook. I was not crestfallen westfalen but disappointed patrick canley. He played great. He could've won that event. Justin thomas was just ridiculous <hes> but last week we said hey listen. You know patrick canley <hes> he is. I think he was fourteen to one to win last week but if you better than this week you should bet him next week as well because if he's there and global hold it's what happened. <hes> can't leave <hes> i bet can't last week at eighteen to one four to win the fedex cup and basically by having the runner up finished can't leave who's now four to one <hes> this week. I've got two eighteen to one to win the fedex cup so it's almost like shopping for numbers or hedging the future of forgiving yourself a chance to get an overlay price and i know he did that on the video last week so knock on wood coming in. I've got can't lead to shots off the pace if he's able to win this week instead of getting four to one. I'm getting the team to one yeah. You've got justin thomas here as you mentioned. Starting at ten under can't way eight-under brooks kepco seven under patrick patrick read excuse me at six rory at five and a handful of players at minus four cooter shaath way simpson simpson rom and abraham answer who's had a nice little run here of late but as we look at the osborne justin thomas plus two fifty at ten under with that built into shot lead over can't lay can't plus four fifty five kept about five to one worry about seven to one nobody else under fourteen to one here so the question obviously becomes this brian i mean how do you approach this thing in a vacuum this week. I know you've got can't lay at the great price. Is there anybody worth taking this week that can go and run down justin thomas at a decent price. I played two guys <hes> nothing outlandish <hes> but again thirty guys there is no cut yeah and basically i think what happened in the final round. Last week is conceivably. What could happen here. I <hes> i can really see the this'll bent having a bottleneck going into the weekend because when you're thomas intently arguably <hes> ten shot lead or eight shot lead over guys at the back of the pack you're coming out of the gate and what is your mindset. I mean are you flag hunting. You know when you're thomas specifically. I mean out of the gate of he's gonna wanna see what guys are doing. Are you making a move at him because last here's what happened last week he has a six shot lead going into sunday can't lead close to two and had all the momentum minimum and now all of a sudden through twelve thirteen holes justin thomas was asked to i gotta flip a switch again and he hit one shot. They won the tournament and he the leader gotten cuts to hit a bad drive. In from ruffy stiff one made birdie <hes> in can't we lipped lipped out a birdie and slid in eagle just by or that would have got really interesting at the thomas very deserving winner but the mindset of the guys at the top you know we're we're trying to shrink here but i i would think out of the gate. Thomas intently would be thinking okay. It's kinda matchplay all over again <hes> what shoot at the middle of greens and see how of course the set up but the guys that are ten shots bag are going to be flagged on so <hes> you yeah. Some guys will shoot themselves out of it. They'll be a guy or two who's aggressive that plays well and can get right back in it and then it turns into a golf tournament head into the weekend yeah the two guys i looked at and i thought it <hes> twenty six to one. I think sandra's sharply is a guy who's won this event before. I think you could take a long hard. Look at it again. He's got four days. You know shape to offer day <hes> you and you're right there. <hes> the other guy that i think had a balloon number. <hes> is kevin kisner. Jordan speed is been a basket case this year because he's just playing military ball. You don't know where it's going left right left right but the one thing about speed is i mean he he hangs around because he's rolling conforti orders the two best putters if you ask me from long range i can't remember seeing a guy this year other than speed that bold in in scares the whole every time some forty fifty feet and that's kisner. I and he's a steely. I kinda guy so i shall flee and kizer or the two guys all played coming coming into this event. I've already got canley and then the other way to play it. Bud is to look long and hard at match ups and i match ups are are going to be very intriguing in this event again based on the mindset. Don't don't forget your <hes>. You know. I didn't know the exact number you senate yesterday. In fact they gotta try to pull it up but it's like just making the top third by y you know and that's what i loved about the events last week. Oh forty guys forty second. He gets a birdie. Oh he's he's moved within thirty third and that's that's a tournament within the tournament because <hes> if you make the tour championship the guy who finishes last year's cashing three hundred thousand dollars just for putting a pagan ground yeah yes yes three hundred ninety five thousand dollars prize. I four finishing thirtieth here so you know as you mentioned just getting here is certainly more than enough and you know i it. It's such an interesting handicapped because you have no margin for error here in terms of taking a look at some of the longer shot so you need dudes that can go out there and post back toback sixty. Three's unique guys can go out there. You know golly jon rahm for example got robbed. Go shoot a sixty two or sixty three but what does he do the next day. Can he be consistent hideki matsui yama same thing last week he had to phenomenal rows made. Every putt just was awesome off. The tee. Also approach coach is other two rounds. He wasn't particularly good so you guys that can consistently go low here and also you said for a matchup standpoint look. If you're at the back of the pack here you are in the middle of the pack. Really you have to play very aggressively to try and make a push here on thursday and friday. Sometimes aggression is good. Sometimes congressional can be bad so i agree with you that even though it's hard to find equity futures price here matchups are definitely the way to go this weekend and there could be a lot of good angles with those yeah. You know i think part of that is the demeanor of the guy you know. Middle tier guys are gonna listen. It's like the world series of poker. I i think if you finish eight is that right if you finish gate you're a millionaire. Eighth-place gets a million the bucks this tournament. It's not so they're big balloons on line here you know so there'd be guys that are thrilled to be here and you say oh. I you know every shot. I made <hes> guys are being aggressive in fallen by the wayside. You know guys look. I'd walk should sixty nine four days in a rolling out finish ninth and it's like winning the tournament you know in ninth place finish means a lot to certain guys. Other guys could care less. They got more money than they'll ever know what to do. With all that matters to them is winning so a lot of it is you're trying to get between the years of these guys. What's the motivation well and that was something me you and i talked about. I know we chatted a little bit on sunday and you were talking about. Maybe looking to play against justin thomas in a match up because you know he had the tournament one as long as he didn't fall down. It was kind of like a horse. It's got a big lead as long as he doesn't fall down. He's got this thing one. He tried his damnedest to fall down but the guy he didn't have to play aggressively so wrong. Don't match ups against guys with incentive. That may be a situation. We get on sunday in this thing as well well listen. The oddsmakers aren't stupid. I mean it was it. Was you know if you're willing to let you know thirty cents and there's so many plus prices that are out there but the reality of it was what what what were the odds makers telling elliot dustin. Thomas had a six shot lead. He's playing lightsout in patrick can't leave minus a dollar thirty on the sunday matchup because thomas was going to be as he should have been shooting at the middle of brains. It can't was going to be more aggressive and you. You can't leave easily won. The match are so as we transition away here from the gulf and talk a little bit of n._f._l. It is week three of the preseason. This is is the week that matters the most in the preseason because a lot of the starters play at least a half usually ended the third quarter. The backups will play the remainder of the game so you don't have to worry yeah about you know undrafted joe. Who's not going to have an n._f._l. Job in a week closing out the game for you so it's a little bit of a different type of dynamic here this week. We kind a see that with some bigger numbers out there for week three as well but ryan in terms of your handicapping mindset for this dress rehearsal week. What are your thoughts on what we've got going on. The preseason is always going to be buyer. Beware of that doesn't mean you can't have firm opinions and ended upon the short side of things. I one of my favorite places. The preseason was the over in the first arizona first game arizona and the chargers was because tyrod taylor was gonna play the first half and he'd go up and down the field 'cause it was important for the chargers to get an action. He took him right down the field. They went eighty five yards in three minutes. It's first and goal at the two in the running back fumbled the football all right one play and you'll play in the over in the first half of that game. It was a loser because then the cardinals cardinals come out and took seven minutes off the clock got it out with a forty five and pundit and it ended up being seven seven at the half and it was over twenty and a half. They scored twenty the eight points if that running back didn't fumble the yard line so there's always those scenarios that can bite you in the butt. <hes> there were a couple i you do look at at the numbers and there's some things that you look at week one indianapolis i don't i just don't understand <hes> the numbers to be honest with you week. One in these playing at buffalo no walk. It's percents the bills at the number two defense in the league last. You're at it all over and it's all about you know the josh allen in matt barkley's really good back and they've been in the like the game was over over they could move the football to save their life and buffalo won easily and i didn't do anything i like confounded by that but i don't know it looks well. The next weekday come back. They do the same thing but browse look great in their first game and they make n._b._a. Three point favorite against the browns. What am i missing here like the wrong. Team is favourite eight. Cleveland won the game twenty one eighteen and they're doing it again. The indy it means a four point favorite against the bears again. It's all about motivation but if i'm sitting there looking at a quarterback rotation of trubisky chase daniel in tyler bray i wrong teams favors. I mean i could be wrong but i you know what i've seen through two weeks so there's nothing changed in that regard art yet they keep betting indie well and that's something is interesting here about week three as well you know if you're into a lot of times people like to back those ooh team is because they think well they wanted to get some sort of positive feelings going especially here in the dress rehearsal week so maybe they'll show up and actually play a little bit here and then also for the home team's maybe there's a little bit more of a buzz because the crowd is going to be a little bit bigger the crowds and be a little bit more invested with the starters playing and there's some i'm incentive. Maybe a little bit of pressure in some instances from ownership from the g._m. From the business department to put your best foot forward here in this home game to to sell tickets sell merge drums interests all that kind of thing so there are some of those factors as well but then there are also some coaches out there that just don't give a shit whether it's week three the preseason or not so i think there are that's a land mines and a lot of options to look at the rams. I mean mcveigh spent few if you spend a half of a quarter on the headset on the broadcast. It was talking on the broadcast. He'll i wasn't even coaching the game. I mean he. You don't care the the drew brees the saints won. The game is the day before the game in san diego. Drew brees is hanging out del mar betting horses. I mean you know the general rule of thumb and i go all the way back to my days. I was there every they <hes> during that stretch in buffalo when the bills with the four straight super bowl it was called club club. Mars you know the first game. You could've put your house on it. They did no one that mattered was going to be anywhere near the field and the bills would get mauled in the first preseason game when they went a super bowl four years in a row. The general rule of thumb is good teams and true contenders. All they're trying to do is get to the bill starting gate with their place. It's like trying to get a horse but a started game future and the kentucky derby. The hardest thing is to get be have one. That's in the top twenty in the ah the good teams don't care about staying healthy. Yeah and you certainly can't blame them for that and obviously there's been a lot more traction here for you know going from four preseason games down to maybe extending the regular season. Maybe doing some more joint practices as opposed to preseason games so you can hit somebody other than your own teammates. Maybe we do see some changes here to the preseason as we go forward but one last thing i want to ask you about here. Brian and we'll look at one game specifically you mentioned indianapolis line moving and one that maybe you don't understand but as a general rule. What do you think about why you're specifically for week three of the preseason oh you pay attention to it but i again like anything some of them. Some of those moves can be misguided and and i'll just go to those two indie games. You know like that things moving a certain way and i'm going. I what am i miss it. You know or like anything you had the handicapped the line move to go oh well. I understand why that's the case <hes> but i you know i just just like any aspect of preseason. Football buyer. Beware in the line. Move could be just completely misguided all right so one game. I want to take a look at here specifically civically and and maybe this comes from you know a buffalo point of view because you are a buffalo guy here but i do know that you've followed the bills closely in their two preseason games. James gunn detroit friday night on the road at ford field. That was a one point favorite lines whip now buffalo minus one not like this is a substantial line moved by any means. These are two teams that have dramatically different in the exhibition season well. I i will tell you that yesterday morning. I was doing a different podcast. Not this is not my favorite one but the numbers came up and i and i just looked like you gotta be kidding me. Detroit opened a two and a half point favorites and in the meat of this podcast. I'm going the wrong team sabre. Do you know what happens remains to be seen but the wrong team is favored. Detroit spinners dog's breakfast. It will sure enough. This thing crosses all the way back detroit open two and a half now buffalo's one. I bet you the thing goes up to two and a half at least <hes> here's the thing both ways only only preseason so it's a bills fan but i am objective because betting the bottom line things buffalo is looked phenomenal opiates in the preseason for a number of reasons. They had the number two defense last year. Everybody's backing they added at all. <hes> and their backups have been flying around and making plays i mean on the defensive side of the ball they got incredible debt and in the off season they went and got john entire new offensive line but they've been mangled by injury but the big thing was and this is what you do in the pre season you'll do for defying quarterback battles <hes> <hes> you know maybe the fourteen to play the total because the only way you can evaluate a quarterback is to throw the football buffalo had every play josh allen made made last year. He made running for his life and doing it himself now. You're watching these games. There's a pocket. There's an actual pocket there and they've got they've got seven eight. These wide receivers fighting for six bucks and these guys are all making play. They've they've all come and a good wide. Receiver is going to get cut from this football team but the biggest addition has been copiously and if you watch their games you think edleman got got traded to buffalo and so she looks like a completely different guy or he is pocket. He's looking down field and seeing if there's the stretch plays they're anti ah it's not right out of the gate. Keep quickly looks for the check down on beasley who's running against the linebacker and it's four yards of separation. It's like any moves you eight yards. Every time he had five catches for forty four yards in their two series against the panthers. The offense actually looks pretty doggone good and then on top of it matt barkley who beat the jets forty one ten coming off the street last year in a regular season game. It has a full year of knowing the offense matt bahr barclays been the lights out in the two preseason games and in the second half. You've gotta be you. You're going to be looking at matt barkley. Who's gonna go up and down the field and maybe do some good things. The scary thing is if it comes down to the fourth quarter and they put high every jackson and the you know he could do something stupid and blow blow. What's been three quarters of good work for you but i mean from what i've seen. The bills are are playing at a really good level right now. Be preseason in the lines. Get out of their own way one as you look at the lions here big question us to whether or not we even see matthew stafford this week if we don't the bills are playing to n._f._l. Quarterbacks and the lions are essentially playing zero because david fales josh johnson are are you guys that are behind stafford stafford yet to play here so far in the preseason as i mentioned so. I don't know if he'll go this week. I guess we'll find out but you know matt. Patricia patricia hasn't really played anybody. Kennedy golic and played marvin jones hasn't played danny. Amendola has been hurt. Kerryon johnson only had three carries last week. So you sort of wonder i mean does he flip the script just because this is the third preseason game and put everybody out there or to see as you mentioned earlier just worry about getting two week one intact as healthy as you possibly can cause the last thing you wanna do is trot matt stafford out there because you're supposed to in the dress rehearsal he takes the sack and the bills i have five of them so far in the preseason and then he's down for week one and possibly more so i think the wind moves correct and quite frankly even at the minus one price or even maybe all the way up to minus two and a half. I think buffalo's still decide here and i'm gonna i'll throw one one goofy one at you just as a point of conversations and yeah. I'm yapping about the bills but that i watched every play play the preseason. I'm in dire need of getting a life but this i and i'm telling you i don't understand it at coachspeak run. Stop the run you know in in all things coaches say but they three pretty fast but for the game offense defense special teams there is no number in the wagering wide built in not ever for special teams and i i think is it an intangible thing maybe to a degree but i think there should be because if you sit there it through week seven and some teams is like just the absolute drags on special teams or team is the best where our they're they're constantly teams inside the pointy or they're getting fifteen yards on punt returns and the special teams winning the field position battle. That's a big deal and there's no number for that and buffalo has been an absolute unmitigated disaster on on special teams yet go all the way back to terrence mcgee <hes> when he led the league in kickoff returns. They been a disaster. You know what they did this year they win. They got this andrei robert sky from the jets. Who's a beast <hes> kickoff and punt returns kick off ninety percent of them. They kicked out of the end zone but i'm telling you special teams is actually going to be a positive factor for the bills this season and and there was another weapon that in a preseason game or guys running down there trying to make a tackle and just make the team you get crazy goofy breakdowns and lanes i the other thing is i. You know you've got this. Andre roberts probably in the first half returning punts. He could bust one for a touchdown yeah well. That's a good dogs. They're especially the special teams plant something that i really don't think that we talked enough about in the n._f._l. And and we certainly should and maybe we'll do that some more here on the show as we go throughout the season but brian with just a couple of minutes left. I want to ask you about college football. I know you're a big time n._f._l. Guy golf horses for college football. You've been doing those video previews over on dr bang book youtube page doing some research with that you know in that type of way. What else have you been doing here to get ready for the college football season which kicks off on saturday oh i i think that's one of the beauties for doing a daily radio. Show doing your podcast and things of that nature <hes> tonight. I'll be <hes> on visa in <hes> with kenny white <hes> so and tomorrow night with bruce marshall two guys that are amazing and couch surround yourself <hes> and the minute. You think you know everything you know. Nothing you've just you'd have to be a sponge and you take it all in and at the end of the day you gotta make your own decision and pull your trigger <hes> but you just take it all in <hes> and i think the other thing i would say to you adam like like saturday night. <hes> i got nothing on the florida miami game but honestly i mean the arizona hawaii game see them. Scoring two hundred points i mean khalil tate was hurt last year. He was able to play but he he wasn't the stool threat running all over the place. <hes> in the mcdonald kid the first month of college football last year. It was insane what he was doing and then he got hurt and he played her all year long. These two kids coming in healthy. I think that game flies over the total the total seventy four more so the the other thing. I would say those you do all this reading and you have all this information but it's on paper you know no. I mean it's not like pre-season n._f._l. Where you get to see snippets of things that you can apply and i'm a big eyeball guy you know like if you watch should game and in the first half team moves the ball up and down the field three times in turn it over inside the red zone twice and settled for a field goal <hes> you you know they clean it up in the second half and they're catching points because they're down. You know you gotta watch these games with gameplay wagering and i do believe <hes> that the first full weekend the college football. I that's what i'm going to be doing. I'm going to be like a traitor. I'm going to sit here and i'm gonna watch a lot are these games and as the game's going on to form an opinion. I kinda see what's going on here. It's not the guy got information. It's a guessing game that i'm going to do the majority of my plane so i know what i'm see him <hes> in in play or with second-half wagering the first week. Maybe even the second week college that's for me. That's how i'm gonna approach it brian blessing who as he mentioned going to be on visa in tonight and tomorrow and filling in a little bit over there but then you also your daily shows sports radio and also vegas hockey hotline how people check out those programmes bryant a sportsbook talk radio dot com adam and believe me going through the summer months. There's been a lot of talk about hockey. It's been wild <hes>. I've never seen anything like that all the years fifty the years of follow in this game. I've never seen anything like it. Where always restricted free agents haven't signed yet and everybody's bogged down salary cap wasn't what they thought it was gonna be and everybody's waiting for the shooter drop and it's not just about the restricted free agents is once these guys signs teams know where or they stand salary cap li- some ridiculous deals are going to have to be made so this is gonna be wild month coming up in hockey. We talked about that a lot today. On sports radio tony nevels sportsbook director great guy treasury is going to be in studio for an hour so you know we get the whole the top sportsbook directors in vegas on on the show and it's great to get that thought process from the other side of the counter so new to to <hes> weekdays pacific time k._f._c. h._p. Dot com you can listen. Do it live all the shows are archived sportsbook radio dot com and as always make sure you check out brian on our bankbook youtube channel and follow him on twitter at brian blessing passing by brian always a pleasure. Thank you so much for joining me. We'll talk to you next week. I look forward to seeing you this weekend. Yes sir there you go. There's there's brian blessing and host of sports radio and vegas hockey hotline ks h._p. Dot com sports radio dot com app brian blessing on twitter speaking of that.