The Six Groups Within The 2019 Democratic Party
You know, Donald Trump. He embarrasses us every single day. Trump told the working people of Iowa and Vermont in this country that he was going to stand with them. I know it will shock you. When I tell you. He lied. The president is not white supremacists. Not sure how many times we have to say that say spoke for people that have very very serious problems. I guess if you look at what happened in New Zealand, perhaps case condense an evil and bigotry, and we will continue to do. So people should feel safe in places of worship. Hello from Lanka is. I'm leon. Welcome to Trump has once again, great to be with you that does begin at least for a moment in the world of fiction, the final season of game of thrones will begin in less than a month. It will be a reckoning to be sure as a big fan of the show. And I am a big fan of the show and the books as well. I hope it's creators have the courage to end it in fittingly trudgy way, you might think just being cruel. But think about it this way reality actual reality is a punishing thing. My problem with fantasy and full disclosure. I've written a fantasy novel. I Porras of hunters novel way back in two thousand and five that I'm still very proud of the problem with fantasy is that its authors usually struggled to give the characters they create week create the tragic fate these characters would probably face in real life. Most-fun-to see authors. Just don't want to kill their darlings J K Rowling didn't do it. And it made me very angry talk in barely did it in the world of the living. If odds are against you chances are you will not find happy ending. There are no miracles. There's no magic. Sadly, there's no dragons, so I hope that once game of thrones. And we will have witnessed all of the characters confronting their fate. Even if that means heartbreak for the audience, which brings us back to another reckoning that's coming and that in many ways, he's already here here in the world of fact, there are some who have already faced their own reckoning or reckoning of sorts at least Paul Manafort Trump's own version of little finger is going to jail for seven and a half years. It should be only the beginning. There is little doubt that the report will open the America's political landscape. The question is how and by how much, but I think it's a safe bet to assume that even in smile this form the report will push the Democratic Party and congress to finally confront the possibility of impeachment. What kind of Rick owning Donald Trump face? When all of a sudden, some Democrats seem to think that Trump should say impeachment. No matter where the famous report. Reveals are they right speaker Nancy Pelosi clearly doesn't seem to think. So in a recent interview Pelosi put some distance between herself and the idea of Trump's impeachment. Why well because she thinks that the real reckoning Trump should face. They one downfall that is worthy of this character ISA reselling electoral defeat in two thousand twenty. I don't disagree. Pelosi knows that is the democratic candidate is to beat Trump. The president shouldn't be given any claim tomorrow Trump deserves at defeat that does not polarize the controver, but rather reinvigorates the democratic process. This is what Nancy Pelosi seems to think it's a complicated and controversial position to be sure. Especially because Pelosi's party, we should be lowly aligning behind one common electoral objective, easing danger of drifting apart of fracturing. We will talk about that very very interesting topic when we return. And now the tweets. Judge spoke to marry Aguirre c o of General Motors about the Lord's town, Ohio plant. I am not have made that it is closed when everything else in our country's booming. I asked her to sell it. But this thing quickly. She blamed the U A W union. I just wanted band that big beautiful plant in Ohio opened now close planet, China or Mexico where you invested so heavily pre Trump, but not in the U S, a brain jobs home. The bring back judge Janine the radical left democrat working closely with their beloved by fake news media's using every trick in the book to silence majority of our country. They have all out campaigns against Fox News. Those who are doing. Box must stay strong and fight back with bigger. Stop working so hard on big, correct? Which will only eight continue to fight for our country. The losers all watch. What you don't give it these strong and prosper? Stay true to the paper. Got you thick fighting for and fight for judge. Ginny your competitors. I challenge one. Don't add them on a silver platter day and be you can only be interesting. Perry. Bacon, junior writes about government and elections for five thirty eight dot com. Recently published insightful piece about the different groups within the Democratic Party debate that will likely shape not only the future of the United States. But frankly, also the world Perry. Welcome to Trump cast. Thanks for having me Perry before we get to the Democrats. Let me ask you about the Republicans. You began your recent piece by saying, and I quote that our political reporter could write Democrats divided or Republicans divided story virtually any day of any year. So let me begin by challenging that just a bit at the current political moment are Republicans, truly as divided as Democrats. I don't think they're as device. Well, actually, I'm not sure I think both parties are pretty unified in a certain way, the Republicans are unified largely around Donald Trump. But you saw this national emergency vote were twelve Republicans voted against the Trump positions. You have some individuals on the public side. And then the. Democrats have different factions different wings of power. But I still think most Democrats both in the electorate congress are pretty unified around the idea that they are opposed Donald Trump. I think we have pretty unified parties broadly with some divisions in both things stand. Now. Is there any chance you'd think that anyone within the Republican party will challenge Trump's claim to the party's nomination in twenty twenty independent? How you think of like a primary challenge will anyone actually formally run a campaign against Donald Trump. I think the is that are low, but I do think the governor of Maryland's name as Larry HOGAN. He's going to New Hampshire next month. He's been to Iowa ready. He's been writing up is criticizing Trump. He's already essentially running for raising his hand to run against Trump. And I think if the poll show enough support or of the Muller. Education has some really strong findings. I think Larry HOGAN is basically already running quiet under the radar campaign against Trump. It don't they become a former campaign if he can really see how he can win. But basically a symbolic position for now for now, I think Trump is likely to be uncontested. Yes. So in any case, even if the Republicans have their own set of fractures, they pale in comparison to what we've seen within the Democratic Party. Could you run us through the six wings as you? Call them the six wings of the Democratic Party recently wrote about so what I described was what I called the sort of super progressives, which I put Alexandria Keizo Cortes, probably the most notable person net group we define an informal ranking. We were disturbed to find them as people who are pretty liberal on with all economic issues. So let's say Medicare for all, but also pretty liberal on issues that are sort of non directly onomic, so like us. Approximate as sort of the people who favor abolishing ice less Subaru abolished ice Medicare for all. We said kind of very progressive or people who are probably like left on the economic issues like Medicare for all maybe not as left on the identity, cultural issues. I put Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders in debt bucket, we call the National Progressive, not super berries of the progressives. We said there's a new guard progressives who are liberal on those issues of any not as liberal on economics or cultural issues, we gave Kamla Harris and better work, and Stacey Abrams is among the examples of that we then had a group called old guard progressive, which is Nancy Pelosi Chuck Schumer, and the thing we distinguish there was we were talking about the fact that those people are pretty left on the issues too. But they're pre published on electability and the Democrats present themselves as acceptable to the middle of the country. So that ends up making them less liberal sounding than other Democrats. And then we talked abou-. The moderate wing of the party, which we can in by people who are in congress mainly in the house. A lot of the members elected in twenty eighteen we said of moderates people who are going to vote against the liberal wing and Ken of our critical of the liberal wing. And there's a lot of New Democrats in that group. And then we finally said conservatives, which is like, I think the most prominent I would argue sort of Joe mansion of western of the Senator who is a hostile to abortion rights and pretty conservative on a number of different issues. And so those are the six blocks super progressives. Very progressive progressive old guard arrest of new guard moderates conservatives now one of the central park docs, is facing the Democratic Party heads into twenty two is the party's left-wing. What you call the super? Progressives are driving the conversation at the moment. All of it seems like Alexander has taken the role of sort of a gatekeeper at least when it comes to the younger generation younger boat. And yet as you point out, and this is very interesting there. Are actually very few elected officials who could be considered super progressive so way, these still is a minority within the Democratic Party. Yes, I we argue the people who are sort of abolish i-is Medicare for all green new deal that might be ten members of the house. And maybe I don't think there's any Senator I put that group. I'm not sure there's any governor at the democrat. But that said, I think the important thing the left has going for it is it has a lot of aggressive policy ideas and a lot of energy in. So in some ways, the sort of more right were part of the Democratic Party. Don't have those really strong ideas. So a lot of times what you see is the more conservative part of the party says that's unrealistic. We can't do that. This not are particularly compelling message. That's not going to drive the arguments. You have one side saying climate change is an extant crisis. And we have this big bowl plan to solve that. And the other side of saying will your plan is not realistic enough without Nestle having its own. The plan. So you have one of the party this driving a lot of the ideas and one wing this reacting lot, and whenever you're reacting you're off in a place where you're not leading the discussion. So it's ten members of the house. It's a very small percentage of the democratic majority. How strong is the super progressive cloud within the party in reality is hit an exaggeration. You think to think of Okasha Curtis and her peers as kingmakers during the party's of coming primary? Yeah. I don't think they're gonna kingmakers. I don't think that, you know, having ten people in Norse, you will make that big difference. But would I rather have Alexandria, ks ios or design -dorsements or Chuck Schumer's endorsement, I'm not sure, and I think I might rather have Alexandria case your cortisol endorsement than Chuck Schumer's because I think that captured a lot of what's going on the party right now as I do think the young people the activists wing can bring you fundraising and bringing doozy. Azam for us. I think there is some usefulness and some excitement that when you're the party, even if. Most Nestle the voters are not really there. I've interviewed a couple of democratic politicians in the last few weeks. I've noticed feel an obligation to either endorse the agenda of the super progressive. You're describing or they tiptoe around any sort of criticism of that platform, given the on the Niable impact that the super progressive have in social media and the new cycle as a whole, even if they are very few in numbers, you think this could turn into a sort of a tyranny of the minority scenario within the Democratic Party. I mean, it's not like these health members are being held at gunpoint and being asked support the new deal or new deal else. I think they have choices I wouldn't use that framing. But I do think that they are feeling pressured, but again Destin part because what I would argue is that the cannot Obama view of politics, which is that the Democrats should try to be toward the center and look to work with Republicans was basically invalidated by two thousand nine to two. Thousand sixteen the kind of let's have a centrist approach to climate change didn't convincing Republicans to come on board. So I'm not surprised that there was a push for more liberal to say, why don't we try more left wing approach because compromise is not working anyway. So I think that that is not surprising to me by think there's sort of a rejection of Obama ISM if not Abam himself, but I think is really important here. Let me ask you about the man of the hour and probably the man of the last four years or the next three years. At least Bernie Sanders since Hillary Clinton knows the election, you'd think of Sanders has very progressive group that currently includes by your own categorization, Elizabeth Warren and New York mayor Bill de Blasio. There are those who say beginning with Sanders himself, of course, that the party has actually moved to the left since twenty sixteen and that the very progressive are now actually the mainstream ideologically speaking when it comes to democratic agenda. Do you agree? I don't because if you look at like right now, the Democrats control the house, they're not pushing Medicare for all they're pushing basically keep the Affordable Care Act in place as they're not pushing these boys they're pushing these sort of modest bills on gun control. They pushed a big voting rights Bill, which is important but not particularly bold in the Bernie Sanders, mold. So no, I think that the center of the party. Is because Nancy Pelosi as speaker Chuck Schumer, the democratic leader, those people still have a lot of power. And I would argue they are so the drivers of the Democratic Party on actual policy. If you look at most governors who actually again, implement policy themselves. I don't think you have a lot of Bernie Sanders style governors either. So I just think that maybe in the sort of like narrative Bernie Sanders has pushed the party left, but it's still not a Bernie Sanders party by any means, I'm working on a really exciting seperation with a friend. And I kept waiting for him to send me back later situation. Kept waiting. I kept waiting EMA have eventually I heard back with one of the best excuses. I have hot. His populist poet has leapt up was stolen. His life is incomplete disarray. It's such a good excuse. I'm not to believe him. But it did make me think about how horrible. It would be somebody broke into my home things of my take and the sense of elation. I would that's by. I have been thinking about Simpson. Simplisafe office twenty seven home security with no contracts catch believe, a safe space on earth should be yours. You should feel protected every time you shut your door. And he for work at you is at night moving Friedman people already feel this way every day. Thanks to simply get SimpliSafe, just go to SimpliSafe dot com slash Trump cost to get started. But SimpliSafe dot com slash Trump cost TI MP CAS St. to protect your home and family today. Simplisafe com slash. Perhaps the most interesting group in your six categories. He's what you call the progressive new guard that you describe for us few minutes ago includes people like cameras Harris, Cory Booker and crucially now since he'd announced his formal candidacy, bitter O'Rourke these groups faces curious paradox, in my opinion, it might be the most numerous in congress. But it also lacks it. So narrative, what story are they going to tell in the election. What do people like Harrison O'Rourke actually stand for doing? No. So I think this is tricky because I think that they have a problem of what are they actually stand for? So what do they stand for it? If you figure out what is Barack Obama's issue ex. You probably know what Beto and comma Harrison Booker for they're pretty similar to him in terms of ideology. So they're like left us center. But not really like deeply progressive. I don't think I only a great mystery. They're like the story of saying that is going to be hard though. Because that makes it sound like you're basically the Canada the democratic status close hard to be. Like Begnaud and Harris and Booker these sort of youngest dynamic people. But I think their message does not project it, I think that's going to be hard. I would've assize one thing about the people. I put in that group is most of them are either pretty young themselves or their women are non white, and I think that's important part. Because I think part of their kind of liberalism will be a liberalism of culture ama- fresh voice, I'm liberal because I'll appoint lots of very diverse cabinet. I'm a diverse person myself in a certain way, I think part of their liberalism is a projection of who they are like Beto became famous or defending these NFL players who kneel during the national anthem. I think that's a form of liberalism that maybe is not the Bernie Sanders kind, but is a kind I think response to the Democratic Party, which I would argue has become liberal on racial in gender issues as much as unpopular shoes. But that sounds superficially, no way, no, not really substantial in policy. I think it depends on. The issue. But I think in general, yes, I would make the case that I might think voters are at some point superficial in my guest is some of the candidates think that too, and I think we might be right. Let me stay on. This story question that I find the fascinating. I actually think it's the central question for them across party in twenty twenty the question of narrative, the problem of a lack of convincing narrative seems even worse with his progressive old guard, which includes again crucially, the other man of the hour, or at least we expect he will be common of the hour fairly soon. Joe Biden vice-president by them. Currently the favourite win the nomination. If you believe in very early polling. What story will buy them? Tell will the argument for a pre Trump Obama golden years restoration be enough yet. That's the argument. I think that's a pretty good argument. I mean, Trump is opposed by fifty five percent of the electorate, so yeah, I actually think Biden's candidacy will be about very little of him saying, Don. Donald Trump is kind of outlandish and crazy, and I will bring things back to normal. And I don't think that's a bad message. That actually might be a pretty good message. I think these rings so stories perhaps the central question Perry. What do you think will win in the end? I think it certainly, of course, maybe ask you this question. But I would like to know your opinion the narrative of revolution from the super progressives or the story of restoration and moderation from people closer to the center. I think I'm not trying to cop out here. I actually think something in the middle is the way to go here. I think the candidate who was Barack Obama two doesn't it was he transformative candidate in terms like he was able to convince some voters. He was even though I would argue his actual public policies were extremely close to Hillary Clinton's in. So my sense of it is that a candidate. Who's successful is going to be able to present a kind of new age. I'm revolutionary. I'm different message. While maybe not on the details. Embodying that like if I had to bet Sanders or Warren or the rest of the field. I would bet on the rest of the field are more people obviously in the rest of the field. But I also think that generic I'm a democrat. I'm not racist. I'm nice restoration out think about Medicare for all. But I'm not committed to that. I'll think about a wealth tax, but I'm not committed that I tend to think the democratic electorate has a fairly large moderate group in a fairly large nap, particularly ideologically more, and I think Sanders in warrant gonna run into that pretty hard. And so I would not bet for them. Sanders could win particularly he is strong base. And a lot of candidates in the Beal. But it's hard for me. If it gets down the two candidates seeing Sanders winning if he's facing the more. Generic Obama's message from the other person in twenty sixteen with only three candidates people remember too there were actually three candidates the Democratic Party almost collapsed. I remember being the convention. The convention was actually very stressful. And we now have close to fifteen candidates. We might end up with close to twenty candidates on that stage all of them, quite large political personalities, representing these six wings of the party that you have described for us today in Trump cast, what are the chances appear you think of real fracture within the party, whether the chances that these very clearly divided party, or at least with so many choices will end up fracturing in the prolonged fight for the nomination at try to blow predictions on the hell helpful predictions are. That's it. You know in twenty sixteen Republicans thousand candidates be contested. And it really wasn't. I think what unifies today's parties is negative partisanship. Meaning the Republicans at some point. Or like, we don't love Trump. But we really hate Hillary and we have lost twice in a row and we want to win. And so I tend to think that at some point Democrats really hate Trump really wanna get rid of him. I think there's audience that the party will be more accepting of Sanders of he won. I think a Harris are Biden, obviously, very acceptable to the party. So I tend to think this'll be resolved. Like if Bernie Sanders one he picks say Stacey Abrams as his vice president. I think that sort of papers over mostly devise he picked Joe Biden. And he picks Elizabeth Warren. I think these divides are not that severe and will be addressed by the urgency. Democrats feel about getting rid of Trump now when you look at the country as ole and you do very well and five thirty they'll come specializes in this sort of analysis when you get the country as a whole and you take into account that for most of them credit voters. What's most important is electability someone who can actually beat Trump when you put those? Do things together. What kind of can't it is the ideal candidate to actually phase on Trump, not ideologically? But who would have the actual best chance of beating Trump someone who can appeal to the rust belt and the sun belt is there such a person. I'm not sure, you know, these people have not run the president for us. I'm nervous about predicting. Liz. 'cause I think we're gonna do a lot of like, you know, a lot of that white candidate expl-. I think a lot of it is a little bit fraud. What we do know is of the people who voted for Barack Obama in two thousand twelve but voted for Hillary doesn't sixteen you still some drop off from the people who voted for Obama do voted for Clinton's most people voted for Clinton. But about nine percent of the people who voted for Obama and twelve voted for Trump in sixteen about seven percent of the people who voted for Obama didn't vote it all in two thousand sixteen and about three percent voted for a third party who voted for Obama and twelve voted for either Gary Johnson or? Or Jill Stein and sixteen. So you have a block of people who are sort of the Obama Trump voters. You can tell us to let's say Joe Biden, and Amy klobuchar might be aiming for, but you also people who didn't vote at all and those who are disproportionately black and Latino so you have different potential case there. So you could see and I'm also not sure politics is dynamic. So I think the parties are changing in the sense that the white worl- areas of coming more Republican, but a suburban areas are becoming more democratic, and I think there are very few swing voters period. So no one agrees when I say this, but I tend to thank Joe Biden, comma, Harris Sherrod Brown better work will basically get the same voters to vote for and against them. Because they're Democrats come cast is brought to you by Spotify. The story of the clash is the story of a band that changed everything their music transforms into protest it stands against racism and fascism. It fights for those who can't. Fight for themselves. And it inspired a generation to join them. And do it loud as hell. The class are banned that burned so brightly they eventually burned out but their light still shines today. Now, they're fascinating journey. Spotify original podcast called stay free story of the clash hosted by hip hop icon. Chuck the and pretty with the BBC's stay free. Unearth. Rare interviews that chart the clashes legendary rise and fall, and why they're music matters. Just as much in twenty nineteen as it did in nineteen seventy nine it's the clash in their words. And like you've never heard them before listen to stay free the story of the class, it's free and it's only on Spotify. Young voters, as you know, have moved to the left in striking fashion. Actually, if you believe in recent polls, hell important will they be doing the democratic primary thing that the young voters will actually decided them create primary this time around on where they go. But I mean what you saw in two thousand eight was like young voters iota under forty. Let's say where a very big part of why Obama did. Well, and while he was able to beat Hillary Clinton in sixteen. The fact that young voters were so firmly behind Sanders was a big reason why the campaign was so close. So I think if you're looking at the Democratic Party, I mean, the the groups I think everybody's watching are sort of what I would say is if I was in divide the lectern, the three groups I would say I would watch for like white Pete white voters were over forty five white voters who are under forty five and then people of color, particularly African Americans are big part of the electorate and some of the states in the south. So. I was looking those three blocks, and you could say under forty five was very strong for Wiesner forty very strong for Bernie Sanders in two thousand sixteen of he can keep that base. That's great. I think Beddoes and be very competitive there whites over forty five polling suggests that's very strong for Joe Biden, but right now, but I think he he hasn't really visa run yet. So I think he'll be you'll pay some challenges there the African American. But I think it's like an under the wildcard I think the assumption is like Harris Booker are black Canada's this true. But I think Joe Biden is doing very well. And polling among black voters. I think Beto could be competitive I think we've a lot of their candidate. So I think that these groups are important, and it's hard to say which group is most important without knowing sort of where the field breaks down. I think it's fair to say that in twenty sixteen long fight between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders ended up benefiting Donald Trump all of us in the media thought that it was going to be the Republican party who were going to have the longer more difficult. Primary battle body in the end it turned out to be almost the exact opposite. The Democrats had a very complicated struggle even leading into the convention. Do you think that I I e and tension within the Democratic Party improves or decreases Trump's chances at reelection? I'm might disagree with you the democratic primary lasted very long in two thousand eight and Barack Obama had huge victory. So I'm skeptical that the link to the primary necessarily tells us that much or the divisiveness of it because I think the democrat party was pretty United around Clinton by the end, I think, but most Republicans a lot of swing voters shows Trump, so and not sure. Like, I said, I tend to think that the key questions about the twenty twenty general election are these voters who either the sort of reluctant Trump voters who people who did like Hillary didn't like Trump and Canada sided let me try something different this time, this right tend to think is the big battleground is as his election is much more about the the democratic candidate will probably sound like a democrat. And so my sense of it is like the questions like these the people who voted for Trump last time where they now had they view him because the Democrats would be running basically who they are as a sort of anti Trump Canada. And that's going to be a big part of the message. And I'm curious as no where Trump is at forty percent approval right now, if you look at most polls if he's pulled against Bernie Sanders tends to be the Trump is at forty five a certain number voters who don't approve of Trump, but are going to vote for him. And I'll be curious how big debt number is with. Is going to be a fascinating marathon, very junior writes about government and elections for fivethirtyeight. Come very, thank you. Thank you. And that's how we're show for today. Please tell us what you think I'm at Laon corral. Leo n que array jozy E ON Twitter and Instagram as will the show is at the real Trump cast and one more thing, please please sign up for slate. Plus thirty five dollars for the first year. It gets you on of slate. Spot guests at free evolving roster of ever enticing, perks, and most importantly yours. Supporting our tireless work, go to slate dot com slash Comcast. Plus, that's dot com slash Trump guests, plus our show today was produced by militia, captain with hip from my titan and Indiana real Gian. Domenico is always voice of Donald Trump. You can find him on Twitter at at Johnny Twenty-three. I'm Canosa from Los Angeles, California. Thanks for listening the trumpets.