Better Rivals Ep. 282: Mailbag Time!

Automatic TRANSCRIPT

Can. Welcome in this week's edition of the Niners nation dot com. Better rivals podcast. My name is Oscar, yo and this week, it is a mail bag episode. We've got hazy as locked loaded and ready to melt away, all of your plot armor. And with me this week allowed out of his dark room for just two hours before he has to go back into his shell David Newman. Hello, well gone. It's going. Well, we've got two different versions of hazy. You've got one from two shoots. I've got Sierra, Nevada. I feel like that one. I feel like I got better end of that deal. But did. But you know what I'm going to allow it because it's free. Yeah. Hey, you know what? Free beer is the best beer. Unless someone tries to ICU or give you Zima in which case leave. So let's start with the rundown. We've got a couple of news stories off the top, I think this is going to be a very, very impactful signing if only because he immediately. Also the top of the all name team, the forty nine or sign Levin, Toilolo tight end too. To the to the team. And that's really I can say about that. I think it's Levin. Thanks for your missing either now. There's definitely an either. No, it's Levin, Adam LeVine lead singer of maroon five he's no lead singer. I'm hoping that he comes with the chest and belly tattoos, as well. Oh man. He's got some Inc. I mean, I have no idea. Oh, oh, she's the most interesting thing live talking about the Cipolla bag on Adam Levine's chest. Yes, yes, I am. Yeah. So the heat now is the team's fifth Stanford player pop quiz, hotshot, who has the second mot which college university has the second most players on the forty Niners behind Stanford. Yes. I, I've no idea dig one. Guess an SEC team? No. That would be a good. Guess iowa. Oh, they've got more players. All right. That makes name them. I don't think I can name them either to. Yeah. I mean, I think everybody can get to, and it's, it's the three three in the four that are really complicated. But Toilolo did spend two years Shanahan in Atlanta, including that Super Bowl year in two thousand sixteen. And I mean, really I think all you can say about Toilolo is that he's probably going to replace our favorite wait. Isn't that a Harry Potter character Roswell? Maybe if he's lucky I'm not going to hand him. You got to come in here and earn that job. All right. No one comes in and beats dwelling. Yeah. You just don't replace dwell at his own Harry monitoring. Honestly, I think this is going to be one of those signings where he's another big dude that isn't really a contested. Catch guy doesn't have a ton of red zone TD's, but he was a marginal deep threat when he played with Shane handing average like twenty yards or whatever that year. A reception. But he only had like twenty receptions for two hundred and someone yards. I don't know that he's much of any, he's a guy like beyond that I don't know. Yeah. I, I mean, he's never really been much of anything just besides like a depth. Roll tight end. I think yeah, there's maybe. Some more receiving ability. They're a little bit than like he's not a stellar blocker or anything, you know. So I don't know. I think it's mostly just they need some tight end depth and competition can't bodies in. He obviously knows the system having spent time with shannahan in Atlanta, and I think I like nothing more to it than that. Exactly, as a reliable guy that's going to be near the bottom of the roster. I think, hey, why the hell not I think tied into is more than likely going to be our draftsman Stanford. I think that's going to be that's going to be fine. But the other story in the rundown this week. Peter King ranked the forty Niners. Seventh in his preseason. Power rankings. Seventh top ten the forty Niners, according to Peter King, one of the preeminent football writers in America, literally, the name of his column is ranking the Niners in the top ten, how do you feel about that David? I mean, I think it's a it's, it's tough to go there quite that soon. I can see why though I mean, I think what it comes down to you. Right. Is that if you believe Jimmy Garoppolo is a very good quarterback. It's not that far fetched because the most important thing to being a top team is having a top quarterback. And so if you are a believer that he is that guy in it is that caliber of quarterback then sure, yeah. I mean the rest of the stuff I think there's obviously a ton of holes in question marks and things that we still need to figure out about this team kind of up and down the roster. But the reality is, if he's very good than a lot of those things won't matter, as much the other thing that he added in his in his column was that, if the defense kind of comes to form and they do get better because of the pass rush. Or if the secondary takes us at forward, then he can really see the whole team moving forward. And I mean, if, if those two things I think one of those two things one is more likely to happen than the other. And so, but I do think if that defense takes a step forward and Jimmy Garoppolo ends up playing top ten it's I don't know the manager necessarily top ten but they're certainly in the mix the end of the year if you can get average play from your defense. I don't think that's that crazy with having a head coach like. Kyle Shanahan where you know the offense is going to be good. And then having that significant of an upgrade going to Jimmy from guys like third and Mullins. Yeah. I think it's very plausible that they have one of the best offenses and football just from having those to be a part of your offense. So, yeah, I think defense is largely a little more volatile from year to year. So you know you do see teams that you're either very good. Don't stay necessarily very good. The next season teams that were very, very bad usually get a little bit better in the subsequent seasons. So I think, yeah, I can see it. I'm not ready to go there just yet. But I mean how you layin there. But, but what I do like is I do like how much there is a lack of hype around the Niners this preseason because last year. Of course, Jimmy Garoppolo is like on the cover of Sports Illustrated or something and the Niners where the trendy hot pick. And I think that those expectations all of a sudden, make the year feel I mean the year was crappy because Jimmy Garoppolo goes down. But I do think that not having the weight of being the preseason. Darling and having those expectations can work in the team's favor. And so I'm ready to just kind of fly under the radar until we may start weighing games. And then if we don't well today your expectations weren't lifted. I just wanna just wanna watch some good quarterback play for once. I know we had we had, we had a glimmer of it just a glimmer. Well, let's get to the mail Bank, because we are cracking open the mail bag and taking your questions. We had a threat opened on Niners nation. We also had some Twitter questions. You were hitting us with questions, the left and right. So we're going to jump right in right out the top. Ralph Ralph for some difficult to say just like the Rogers the lead question here. Are you in the best shape of your life? You know, I don't want to say that I've peaked this early. You know, we're really we've been building from the moment that last season ended. I've just really been motivated by not finishing at the top. And so, you know, from the moment last season, ended, I've been on my game, working hard, and I feel like I'm gonna peak, I haven't hit my best yet. I'm gonna peak right before the season you're gonna you're gonna you're gonna ride that peleton you have right into the top shape. Status, right. Into. It. I'm really curious the position of your peleton. Is it in your sunroom? Is it on your fancy deck is near celerion? I mean, I have none of those things in my house. So does make it difficult to find that optimal spot? But yeah, it's hard. It's a hard knock life. But you'll live am I in the best shape of my life. Absolutely not. I'd probably say, I'm in, like the lower third of my life, all things considered. But you know what I lived through it. I'm just I'm on the struggle buses all no big deal. Let's get to some forty Niners related questions though, pass defense that we had lots of variations of very, very similar question. And really, I think what people wanted to get out was, how does the secondary shakeout who's gonna start who's gonna play nickel who's maybe moves inside of Nikola Brett pans out? And how do you think ultimately that that unit is going to play out? So David, why don't we start with who you think the starters will end up being on opening day? So I think first off, we're going to call starters, five defensive backs. Yes, that is the NFL how we're going to roll with that. It's I think, yeah, I mean, there's, there's a lot of guys that are that are right there. I think ultimately, you know, Sherman, obviously is going to be one of the outside Cornerbacks. I think you're looking at either a Keller Witherspoon Jason Brett as the other outside guy. And then I think you're looking at likely Kwan Williams as your slot cornerback, though. I think you're gonna see DJ read, and then possibly even Jimmy ward. I kind of hope that they end up really having him focus on free safety and see how that goes, but could see him being in that mix. But I think one Williams right now with an indie J reader are really the top two guys in one of them, we're likely going to be starting slot. I did see several people ask basically does direct kick inside. Right. Is is it something like where, you know, variet- and Witherspoon or your guys in base downs? And then whether Witherspoon comes in and direct kicks inside. He's not a slot corner. He's going to be on the outside. He's on the outside. So I don't really foresee that hap-. Winning. But I think those are your Cornerbacks, I would lean probably I dunno Witherspoon Brett is tough. I think variety is clearly better player. I've are more likely to be a better player, I think but his health is obviously a huge concern. So I think it's just. Tough to know who to pick their until we get a little bit more information. Safety wise. Yeah. What are you thinking there? Well safety, I do think that Jimmy ward ends up being the starting free safety. I think for whatever reason the team seems to love them. And I hope that with one year at dedicated play at that position that ends up paying off, for him in terms of being able to just stick in that in that role going back to corner though, I think, not just starter the five that are on the field opening snap. I think maybe who ends up with the most snaps at that position over the course of the year, and I could see a world where the honestly they'll likely outcome of the world is one in which Jason read is the opening day starter at outside corner. But by the time we get to week five, it's a killer Witherspoon because Jason verbs injured and then a Keller Witherspoon ends up with closer to six seven hundred snaps over the course of the year and ends up with two or three hundred or something like that. And so over the course of the year, it's Witherspoon, even if the opening day starters at safety, I do think Jimmy wardens winning I think Do Quoc tart ends up being the in the box safety and Marcel Harris becomes as primary backup and then you've got Colbert, who. Primary backup at free safety. And I think I wouldn't surprise me though, to see Colbert win out over ward, only because I think the team might all things being equal if they're dead even have Colbert ended up being the starting free safety, and basically revert to the same plan the same in my opinion. Not great plan. They had last year which was to have Jimmy award be the primary backup at every single spot. Right. Yeah. I think that would make a ton of sense or at least it would make a ton of sense for them to land there. I don't like you said, I don't know that that's the best use of ward. And I think it would be nice. Let him try to stick a position but yeah, I think the I think the only set in stone spots in the secondary right now, assuming health, of course, are Richard Sherman on the outside to quality. It is your, your box safety. Yup. Beyond that. I'm not really ready to make a ton of any other addictions that I feel super confident. And so one of the other questions that we have been getting a lot. This off season is around the ski. Team or the type of players but type of plays really that you'll see from the forty Niners secondary with new defensive backs coach Joe woods. And so we got a question from Caleb about whether or not, we're going to see the cover three type scheme this year, or whether we're going to see more of Tampa to mix. And then, of course, maybe I'd extend this question to you man demand versus zone. We know that Robert Sala is more heavily zone guy, but he played about twenty five thirty percent zone last sorry twenty five to thirty percent men coverage last year. Do you think that the, the scheme or the tendencies of the team is going to change very much this this off season? I would be surprised if we started seeing things like more cover to or anything like that. I mean, the system is still the system. They're still going to be largely in single high looks, and I don't, as long as Robert solid. They're like, I don't foresee that changing at all. And so I think you're still looking at predominantly covered three when you're in zone and then cover one man. I think the hope is that we see a little bit more man to demand. It's the man thing is, is, I think tough because on one hand if the corners are really that bad, you don't want to put them in situations. Let's expose them on the other hand, I think you've got to try it out. I mean last year zone was such a problem for them. They just had so many bus coverages in zone and had so many wide receivers running free down the field. And so, I think there is an argument that with, at least some of the corners, like, actually, maybe all of the non Richard Sherman corners, that there may be better man-to-man corners in the zone corner. So I think that's something worth it because the lowering lettuce, ISM is one of the reasons why they probably end up being better in man to man. And then we're games last year that we broke down where they leaned into man-to-man, especially early or coming out of halftime and the Niners performed well and they did. So what was interesting? I thought was they did so more when they were going up against wide receiver wide receiving corps that was that we're not. Well, that didn't that weren't great. So you think of the game against Green Bay. And when we face Green Bay, it was they were not going up against number one wide receivers at that point, I think they were going up against Marquez vol, this Gatling. And you gotta think that Roberts, all is looking at that depth chart and thinking. Yeah, I think my guys might be able to take that. And so you play a little bit more man. And it ended up succeeding until of course, you have that the boggle there at the end because Greg mavens in, because of a Kella Witherspoon coming out. So I do hope that is the case because at minimum it puts the defensive backs closer to the wide receiver which puts them in a position to make a play, which is not always a place. The Niners found themselves in in the secondary. Exactly. I've, I think one of the benefits of planes zone, is that typically you limit big plays a little bit more. So like the advantage of man to man. Right. Is that? Like you said, you typically have your Cornerbacks in closer position to the receivers which gives them a greater chance of making a play on the ball. And also makes throws a little bit more difficult for the quarterback. And so you. Largely see lower completion percentages, all that kind of stuff against me into man coverage. But you see, generally more big plays because when something goes wrong and man, there's nobody to cover up for you generally. Right. Like maybe you have to one free safety back there. But odds of him being in position to be able to cover up for you aren't always great. And so if one guy fails and man to man and they exploit that you're looking at a very big play possibly a touchdown. So that's kinda the risk reward. You play zone is a little bit more safe. You, you're giving up some of that underneath stuff giving them higher completion percentages. But the hope is you have kind of that lid on the defense. Right. On the on the top of everything. The ovens trying to do you force them to throw underneath come up. Mc tackles the problem for manor is they played a lot of zone. They still gave up a lot of big plays. And so it just wasn't a great combination for them. Defensively last year. So thank yeah. You're, you're hoping that no matter what they do. The basic thing is that they can at least get on the same page from a communication standpoint have fewer bus on the back end. Have fewer big plays that you're giving up? But yeah, I think ultimately, it's worth trying a little bit more madman coverage. See if some of your corners are just better in that type role. And I do think that the addition of Joe woods and the departure of a half Li Jeff half Li the, the former defensive backs coach, I do think that will be addition by subtraction. I one thing that bears is interview that he had on the show, a couple of months ago, really reinforced for me that kind of forgotten was just the importance of position coaches and how important they are to put the coaching of the individual players and how those players perform on the field, and I've got to think that the person who's in charge of making sure that the team knows what the coverage is. It doesn't screw up the communication, a lot of that really isn't on Robert Sala Robert solitaire, to design the plays to call the plays and it really moved the chess pieces around. But ultimately communicating that teaching to those individual players the coach that spends the most time with those defenders is the position coach. And so I've got think Joe woods is going to be a bit of an upgraded. I think we'll see some. Improve communication even if the players stay exactly largely the same. But let's get to another question about the other the forgotten defensive position group in your mind. Dave and linebackers Hans Komarom says I get linebackers had become less and less valued. How does it get along with a short and intermediate inside passing game, getting more and more important? Well, I think off the top linebackers have to be able to cover because the intermediate areas are now fodder for quarterbacks like braided succeed. I think a lot of the value conversation with linebackers comes down to a couple of things. Really one is that the NFL has shown that they don't value linebackers as much. So the part of the issue with quantum Alexander Wright is you're giving him a premium contract at a position where not a lot of guys get premium contracts, essentially. So, you know, you, you do have some linebackers that are very much worth it. And it's because of what they bring from a coverage standpoint, guys like Bobby Wagner, guys like Leuke cly guys like Dion. Zones that have this tremendous impact in the passing game. Those guys were the linebackers that are valuable, you know, this was the reason that we were on board with potentially taking roquan Smith, right? Because the potential for him to be one of those game changing cover linebackers was there and be and just like you mentioned the question teams are taking advantage of the middle of the field. More in having guys that can cover in the inside of the field. Not just your outside corners, is more and more important today's game. But you also again, it comes back to with the value thing, not wanting to outbid yourself. You don't wanna go toss premium dollars at this position in less. You have a guy that's absolutely worth it. You have one of those top and players. And so, I think that's kind of the rub right? You don't wanna be using really important resources that you could be using to help more important areas. If that guy isn't truly one of those top guys, I think the reason that the intermediate and short area of the field has been. A place for quarterbacks. Target is very much precisely because linebackers are there. And so, I think what's then the natural reaction to that. Well, it's to find a coverage defender that can be in that area and still provide run support, but then also be a solid coverage defender in that area. So you look like you look at someone like Derwin James, and he's someone who you're not going to let him out at corner. He's not. He's not, although he probably could plans, corner decently, well enough, but he is really an emiddle coverage defender in the truest sense of the term that is I think where teams should start to throw really like what are they should really start to apply resources? This is where I think Jakubowski tart can be a valuable piece for the forty Niners. If Marcel Harris, you know, actually plays. Well, that's the kind of player, you would hope he would become. And so, I really think that how does how does the whole line like the reduction of the importance of the linebacker square with the increase in passing of the middle, it's going to be in the shifting of what a linebacker actually looks like and feels like and. The days of the two hundred and sixty pound linebacker are gonna be an are almost all the way gone, you're not looking at two hundred and thirty pound linebackers not being like oh, he's not that terribly small like as long as you can run sideline to sideline. You're probably fine. So I think the position shifts because what we asked the position to do is shifting because of the inefficiency that good offenses are taking advantage of right? I think that's, that's one of the other parts for sure. Is that there are fewer linebackers on the field? You're gone from days of having three possibly four linebackers on the field depending on what your base defense was to now. Only having two on most down. Sometimes even one, right? So you just have fewer of those players, which decreases the value because you don't need as many of them on your roster. But yeah, I think you need to be able to one recognize that. Yes. This having defenders in the middle of the field. No matter where they're coming from whether you want to call them, a linebacker safety is important, but you also need to recognize where the rest of the NFL is at so it's. I would say, like write a good thing. If the forty Niners decided that, like, hey, we want to start drafting and signing a lot of these players that, that are really good cover players in the middle of the field. That's great. You don't wanna go and start giving them outside corner, money or something like that, right? Brian, nobody else's willing to do that. That's that takes away your advantage. Right. Because you you've seen that this is a position where we can get some value. But a lot of the value comes from because you get that at a lower cost. And so you want to still maintain that lower cost and not go out and overspend. Because then you lose your value that you could be getting because you're not able to spend spend those resources that the positions that the NFL does pay a lot of money to. Yeah. You think of like it's like a fixer upper and a really good neighborhood. Right. That's the market inefficiency. It's a crappy house. You're going to have to fix which is why you're getting it under. What a fully like furnish built out house would be. You don't want to go to that fixer upper and say, like, I'm gonna give it two hundred K over asking that doesn't make any sense. Why are you bidding? Against yourself. Stop doing exactly. So let's get to wide receivers because that was another common area that we got lots of questions about. And I, we've got lots of variant questions that pretty much what the same as corner, really like who who starts here. How who do you think they kind of? Or where do they shake out? So let's start with the same question, who was the who are the opening day starters at the wide receiver position for the forty Niners. So I'm going to start with receiver and say the starter is a worthless term. Unlike corner where, you know, if you have guys that are healthy, you're generally looking if you're playing five DB's, it's largely going to be the same vibe DB's that are out there, right? There's a little bit less. Even some teams will do it less rotation. Overall wide receiver, not the case, especially for for coach like Shanahan. It really boils down more to what is your role? And how often do we think that role will be used? Right. So I think you're looking at them likely I have to guess that they're going to keep at least six wide receivers. I think they almost have to at this point. Yeah, they've just got too many bodies there. I think it would be surprised if they kept any lesson that, so I think the ones that you're automatically looking at being they're going to be Pettus, going to be deebo, I think, Goodwin still going to be fine. After that, it gets a little more dicey. I think you look at guys like Trent Taylor and Richie James, potentially having the same type of role and then didn't. Yeah. So you wonder and even the fact that deebo can play a little bit inside as well as fine. I guess heard is going to be if you're gonna call him a receiver for right now, until he makes whatever transition, he's gonna make he's going to be one as well. So I think what that's four locks that you're likely looking at and then two other guys ago there, I think Pederson deebo or or the guys that are your highest nap count guys that are getting most of the production. I would approach this problem the same way that I would the DVD's, okay. Who's going to end up with the most snaps on the year because I agree. I think that these starter is based on game script. What's your opening formation? That dictate your starter. Right. And sometimes it's one out one receive around the field. Sometimes it's three sometimes. It's two sometimes it's a heavy package. Sometimes it's not it's going to depend on on the player that or on the on the game script. So who ends up with the most snaps? I. Think it's the top three snap gutters for the Niners are going to be deebo Pettus and Goodwin. And I do think Goodwin is going to be relegated a little bit into not quite Taylor Gabriel. Gadget level but he will go back to having a defined role and he will not be one of the primary outside of wide receivers. But I still think that he will be very, very valuable because he has shown to have a rapport with Jimmy Garoppolo. So I think that's going to be your top three and then I think Jalen hurts effectively locked and the team will probably have some packages for him specifically at wide receiver and then the other two I'm probably looking at some combination of you got four guys. Right. So, yeah, you spots, you've got Jordan Mathews, Kendrick born Trent Taylor. Richie james. So you're getting likely to net from that group. Yeah, I think I mean the team has shown an affinity for Kendrick born, but I think one of those spots is going to be taken up by Trent Taylor or Richard James because they offer I think a different type of receiver a short area. Quickness wide receiver. That can again. It's a backup to Bill or vice versa. So you've got some versatility there. And then I think it's curse or born. And if born wasn't able to break through last year with a decimated wide receiver core and despite the fact that he led the team in receiving yards. I'm not calling that a breakout season. He still had like, did he really? Yeah. Other than kettle. Yes. Wide receiver that live team. I mean he had something like four hundred zero did was not a lot, but he if he couldn't break out last year. I'm not super confident that he's going to be able to hold off a veteran who's born veteran, this point too. So I think maybe curse ends up as that kind of big slot maybe outside receiver, Jordan, Mathews, Jordan, Matthew sorry. And, and that's that. Yeah, I, I don't know. I I'm less sold on the last, but I agree that it's most likely going to be one or the other for Taylor James. I think it would be a little surprising this year, if they ended up keeping all if they don't end up keeping seven. Right. I think that's the only scenario they keep seven wide receivers which seems like a pretty long, pretty big long shot that would be the scenario, but if they keep six I don't think they keep both. And yeah, I don't know that there's like a clear front runner for that last. But I also I'll say that I don't think it matters that much. Yeah. I mean at that point if that player at that they're looking at they're looking at special teams and their injury kind of their injuries sport. And so at that point, you look at their versatility and I think Matthews provides a bit more versatility because he can't play slot. And he can't play outside although his best position is in the slot as a big Sean, I think it would be, I think the more interesting thing about which one of those is less like one player is clearly better than the other or something like that. I think which one they keep says two different things about what they might want to incorporate in the offense. Born is very much a backup to guys like Pettus and deebo on the outside. Right. Math. Us would represent this player that they don't really have is that big slot type of guy and they haven't really had before. So I he him, I think that would be an indication that they're looking to incorporate a different type of slop player that they've never had. I would disagree a little bit. I think that I think they probably want to incorporate a bigger slot. And I think that deebo and heard, and Jordan Mathews can all play that bigger slot role, although deebo plays it in a very, very different way. But I think hurt him. He played most of his snaps out of the slot. Yeah, I wouldn't. I wouldn't call deebo a big slot. Yeah. He's a very different player than somebody like Matthews. They're not exactly when similar, so it does feel like the Niners are trying to get bigger at the slot position. And I think if you look at depot, I as an outside wide receiver, but cou can also play slot didn't the two players that you identify as that. Big slot are really hurting Matthews and that's probably why end up leaning Matthews a bit because I think the team is trying to get a little big there. And then they also have their smaller shifty slot guys. Well, so I. I think that's probably where it ends up because Goodwin can back up on the outside as well. And that seems to me like a wide receiving corps that is both complementary, but is also versatile enough that it can withstand injuries, if they do go that route. Yeah. Yeah. I think that's fair. Yeah, we've got just one more question in this section. But before we get there a brief word from our sponsors. The on say, Arianna Guerande and Drake are talked about ad nauseam as celebrities. But there's one thing that's rarely discussed their music on switched on pop. We go deep into the sounds of pop music to explain what it means. How it's made and why it's so effective. We talked with some of today's greatest artists producers journalists to decode the musical logic behind our modern soundtrack and understand its role in our culture switched on pop. Won't reveal for you. How secretive Swedish producer is behind many of the top ten hits of the past twenty years, and we'll uncover the ways that song writers embed their political activism into today's most popular tracks, we'll show you the surprising musical similarities between Cardi B and Taylor swift. And we'll even dive into the classical pass to hear how the Jonas brothers MIR Mozart's youthful party days. I'm songwriter, Charlie Harding, and I'm musicologist Nate Sloan join us on a journey through the world popular music by subscribing to switched on. Pop on apple podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast up to get you up every Tuesday. Hey, I'm Spencer hall. I'm Holly Anderson. I'm Ryan nanny. I'm Jason Kirk, and we're the hosts of the shutdown full cast your avengers of college football podcast. It says here in the script onto riff on what that means and basically, what I mean is, it's all spoiled every Tuesday, we talk about everything from cooking. Disasters to pro wrestling, too unfashionable pants worn middle school. We also do talk about college football every now and then, like mascot fights announcers, fleeing the booth early and unfashionable pants that coaches where now if you want to college football, exactly as seriously as it should be taken subscribe for free on apple podcasts or in your favorite podcast app. Final question in this area from reconsider in the Niners nation comments does heard have the ability to become a number one receiver in this offense. Or will he be a gadget hitting option? Number three. None of the above. What's the number one receiver? Yeah. Now, I I my guess my short answer would be. No. I don't think he has that kind of ability to be a top receiver to, to be. Let's say number one will define right now is a top producer for your offense. I do not think that he has that ability, I think that he is someone who potentially offers some versatility that can can allow him to be a useful player in certain packages. I don't think that usefulness turns into an overwhelming amount of production eating point. Yeah. I think I would really interrogate the notion of what you mean by number one receiver, right? Top producer would be one. I you could also define it as a wide receiver who dictates coverages or who teams. They have the double team or who they game plan for there's lots of ways to do that. I don't know that like if it's can he be Julio Jones? No, that's the answer. I think that can. But I also don't think that he's just like a gadget I think you probably will be used in some gadget type stuff. But those aren't the only two outcomes for Jalen hurts career there's a lot in the middle there that I think can still be very fruitful and still be very good for this team that isn't just are you, Calvin Johnson redux? Or are you a larger Taylor Gabriel? And so I would say very much TVD. We talked a lot about Jalen Hurd, but I think he's got some stuff to work on, but he's got some promise and if he's able to turn that promise into something then good for him. But at least right now, we're slotting him in as like the fourth or fifth wide receiver on this team at best. All right. So let's get to general twenty nine thousand offseason questions friend of the pod, David Campbell. He's probably one of the better questions that we've got because I think it allows us to focus on some of the good stuff. He says it's natural for us to critique all the front office decisions. Let's focus on the positive what move acquisition decision are each of you. Most happy with this offseason, David, from one day to another go. Man. I guess I've I don't know. I feel like this is kind of a cop out in some way. But I think by far the best move is you said getting Jimmy Garoppolo back. I'm gonna kick you on the dick. Oh, no. That would have been a good one. Now I'm sad. I didn't think of that. I would say, honestly, Nick Bosa at number two like I it seems very obvious. So I think from the, the reason I land there, right from a free agent standpoint. I don't know that there's a ton that I loved there. I think there's, there's some good stuff. I think Jason Barrett right? Is probably my favorite signing from value. Upside potential impact standpoint, but I don't think that by any means I'm ready to say that, like that's the best thing that they've done this off season. I just think there's too many question marks with his health there to, to really Bank on that. But I think even with the draft even though I would have maybe preferred they traded down or done a little bit more from coverage standpoint staying at to taking the best player in the draft best non quarterback in the draft at a position that is a value in that was something that they needed tremendously. I think is by far the biggest like homerun decision that they made this offseason. And it wasn't a tough. decision but it was one. Yeah, I have a different decision because I agree. I love the decision and I love it. I get to watch him play football because that's going to be a lot of fun for, for as much for football as as we watch. I think for me it's going to be Jason Barrett because of the value that he provides for the team. And my, my sincerest hope is that he ends up recovering and having a fantastic year because what that will do is. I think it will incent the team to take fliers on players out of position like corner where they should in that value area because if Rhett works out, and we end up getting a compact from, if he leaves, or if we signed him long-term, if he stays. I hope that, that's the team, I hope was thinking, the right way about it by saying, like let's go ahead and take this flyer on this upside player, that's showing that he can produce it a really, really high level, but just needs to overcome some injuries, and that they do that more often with players that are veterans that have shown that they can produce a really, really high level because. If they can start doing that. That's where they're going to have to turn when they start getting closer to the top of the salary cap, they're gonna start having to make those value picks. And if they get positive reinforcement of about a pick like that, I think it could be good for their overall decision making process. So that's why it's happy. It's a happy meal for me. But because if it works out, I hope it alters, the course of what they are able or willing to do what positions like that. In the future. Yeah, I, I will say that, that one if we're talking like, okay, if we assume that each of these moves were to work out, positively, which one has the largest impact. Yeah that's that's the one. Yeah, absolutely. So let's get through some predictions Alexander Bali asked with with the seat with last season obviously, being marred by injuries and the staffing changes as a result. What is an ideal record this year? Let's start there because he's got a couple of other questions. And let's well we'll get to break up players in that. But all right. What do you think? Let's talk about the ideal record this year which my ideal record would be nineteen. Now mean. Sure. Yeah. I know about choice, the idea, I go ahead and start in nineteen. No, the only ask the realistic question of all right? Just knowing what, you know, now, obviously injuries preseason things all that still to come. Where do you think the Niners line in terms of record? So I, I would say that, you know, if Jimmy Garoppolo stays healthy and plays sixteen games, I would have a hard time seeing them finish with a record below five hundred just assuming Kyle Kyle Shanahan Jimmy Garoppolo there for sixteen games. I think that at least gets you eight hundred or five hundred eight if Jimmy Garoppolo plays a full season and the Niners ended up with six wins. What do you think happens? Like literally everyone else got hurt. No all the rest of it team. Let let's say that we're going to get to an injury question here in a minute. But let's say that the or I guess, perhaps, the better question is, what do you think happens to Shanahan and Lynch? I think Shannon's probably find still. I think they do likely look at having like someone has to take the fall, I would be surprised. I mean, it would I don't know if it would be encouraging or not. But. I would be very surprised if everything kind of stayed the same, and they were able to buy another year of, like, you know, we're still building this thing, the right way and all the law that they've been tossing out so brick bro brick by brick. I, I don't know that they consider that it worked the other day. And I know. Oh, yes, I totally did. Absolutely. And the thing is, is no one else that I work with all my team really watches football I work in a software company in the nonprofit sector. They're not like sports heads. And even if they are they don't watch enough forty nine or stuff to know that as the catchphrase, but I totally dropped it colloquially in a meeting, and I was like, yes, we're going to go little by little brick by brick, and then I stopped, and I was like, what? Oh my God. That's incredible. Yeah. It happens. Yeah. I just so. So I think that something some change would have to happen. I think Kyle Shanahan likely makes it through. I think he's the one that's probably realistically in charge here as far as how this thing's going, which should be. Yeah. Yeah. I think that's, that's a very fair point. So I think Lynch would probably be the guy that you know, took the blame essentially for for having. Bad season and Monday night football gets a part of the new crew with what, what they put him in a book and test. That's right. What what we what we call. He doesn't have a cool nickname. You can't really short and has already tiny names. Lynn. No bug. Intestine lynn. No. There is nothing about that. That that rolls off the tongue. Not a single in about that situation is very good. And not at all. All right. Let's get to a question in Cali another friend of the but I think to wrap that up is far as we didn't get to, like realistic record. Oh, yeah. Yeah. I think the right place, assuming reasonable health, right? We're not saying everybody's staying healthy. That's not not happening reasonable health. I think you're looking at a nine ten win team. I would maybe lean ten just because I think Jimmy Garoppolo second. Yeah. I think you'd you for me. I think aids the over under right? That's that's where you start I think seven and nine would be a disappointment based on talent offense head coach and quarterback. I don't know. But I do think the range of outcomes is between like eight and ten. I think a lot of things would have to go right for them to get to like eleven wins and at eleven wins, you're talking about a, a lot of things breaking right in the secondary and Jimmy Garoppolo absolutely playing to the level that we think he can play. And that pass rush also being formidable and I think it's the circle of feeding would be the coverage forcing the quarterback to hold the ball. Just a little bit longer, which would allow the patch rush to get there as opposed to the other way round. Yeah. To get to get to, like, over ten wins to like, say win the NFC west and be a potential contender in the NFC. I think you're, you're looking at that defense just everything needing to break. Right. And they go from essentially the worst defense in football to like a fringe top ten unit and that would be that they would need to make in order to I think, get there. I think Jimmy and then very good. Offense can take them a long way. I don't know that they can take him to like eleven twelve I think if they get the defense gets to middle of the pack. I think at that point you're talking about a nine wins. I think of that defense gets up to like. Maybe top ten at that point, they just need to not be terrible, and I think they're over five hundred. They can not be like one of the worst defenses in football. Yeah. They're going to get over five hundred because I think their offense will be plenty good enough. It's just the once you start needing to get higher than that, and really becoming a team that can compete with some of these other teams, the NFC you need a defense. It's a little bit better than all right? Coli. We put you on the back burner. Now. We're back Kelly asked which player fans are hyped about is going to disappoint them. The most. All right. So I guess my first question is. What players are? We have about. Yeah. I guess I haven't been paying close enough attention to know if we've got a good list here, but go for it. All right. So I think Kendrick born lots of people get hyped about him. And when he gets cut people are gonna cry. And then I think Jalen Hurd, is, is I people, I think are getting kind of hyped about him because of a lot of reasons. And I think there is some reason for excitement there. I don't know that he will necessarily disappoint because I do think that even people who think he's very good. Generally think that there's some things he's got to work on things. But if a project man number one don't know about that quality Sander deformed Nick posted, deebo Samuel. Kevin coleman. That's kind of the list, I came up with and of those of those, I think the likeliest disappoint is, honestly, Kevin Coleman, I would say mostly because I don't know that anyone's going to focus enough on quantum Alexander's game in order to be able to be like he is trash, or he is great, and I think is going to be fine. Nick is going to be fine deformed will be in a much more advantageous position now, because of Nick Bosa, and I think Kevin Coleman is going to get like maybe one hundred and fifty snaps. Hopefully. And so that's going to be like, all right. You careless whisper? Yeah, I, I mean, I think you'll get more than that. I don't. Yeah. I don't think I would include him. I don't know that the hype is like that much, though. I did see an article that asked whether the foreigners had the best backfield the NFL on I like nearly lost it. But I to me that they might but and now they don't I mean that's absurd. And also, who cares? Well, that's, that's more. My point. My point is like cool. You have the best of the least valuable thing in the league dope. Yeah. I mean they definitely don't but the two names, I think, from that list that I would look to or or. Yeah. Quantum Alexander Jalen Hurd, at least to me like from what I've seen it which is granted a limited amount. And maybe he's just not getting as much hype as is what he is getting in my mind, but if people think that he's going to be a legitimate impact player in year one. They are going to be wrong. I'm going to throw that out there. I just don't see that. I think he could maybe develop into something. And I think yeah you can see a little bit. If you're taking an optimistic view, see why Shanahan would like him and I wanna give Shanahan every single benefit of the doubt. When it comes off into skill position players because offense just sets them up to succeed. Over and over and over again. I still just don't think that there's any chance that he is some big like game breaking player for this offense. That's just not happening. I think the only other player that is obviously part of the hype train is George kit. But he's gonna be fine. He's, he's gonna that hype train as well where he's not going to disappoint tight on the NFL follow up question when Kelly what is or who is your favorite long shot to make the team? And I mean there's a couple of old name ones that jump out, first of all, willy beavers. My name is willy willy beavers. Willie Beamon is when it comes can't stop because you're not supposed to. But I did in scrolling through the roster. And I can't can't say that I actually knew that he was on the forty Niners roster off the top of my head. But there is a player named jemele Garcia Williams. He may be the new gutty Guillaume because he has a double L in his name twice and Garcia and his name. So if it were to pronounce his name, it'd be Jamaica. Got THEO we. Uh-huh. Really, you pronounce it as the why. Even at the end like that. Yeah. Of course. Why not? No, no. Not at all, like, no. That's why I'm asking you use a Spanish speaker in English. It's just Williams. Right. But in Spanish, the double L is always, right. That's what I'm asking. Like the end of the first name, though, it gets the, the y sound there, I don't know that in Spanish that there is a word that ends into ELS in Spanish, if you wanted to end Djamil it'd be one L. Right. I mean, like, I'm, I'm no I'm no Spanish of Grammarian. Right. But nor am I an expert. I just kinda speak. It loosely. And yeah, I'm honestly why? We're not trying to be accurate. I'm just trying to say jamais fair and then got know got blown up. Oh, no. But okay, but frills I think there's one player for me as alshon year, actually, I think, just because of his story, I would love him. I would love for him to make the team if you haven't read about his story definitely do. So if you just Google his name Z's, I'll shut year as H A, I R ESPN there's a beautiful piece written about him and ESPN he when he was fifteen he was at his grandmother's house and his house started burning down, and you had to run in and save his family. He basically then was he was living in a one room motel with his entire family, and he slept on the floor to the point to where his high school coach started kind of taking them in and like feeding him and having them state his house, he would by choice sleep on the floor instead of the bed, because that's where he was more comfortable and it's just stuff like that just kind of breaks your heart and apparently, he's just stick to our bus rides to school because he would take his his brothers and sisters to class and he would drop them off. First, and then he would go to school, and then it would fall asleep in class, because he was so, damn tired, but he persevered one Florida Atlantic lane, kiffin loves them all those coaches love them. They say he's a hard worker. And I think he, he ran with an injury, which is why is forty time is slow. But apparently, he's a silent a sideline player and he has the will at least to succeed. And so one of those positive stories that you kind of know idea if you actually will. But if I'm looking for a long shot. That's the guy hitching a horse to. Yeah, I hadn't heard any of that. So I mean, I would absolutely root for that guy to make the team, I was going to go with no one. I'm just gonna shit on the little guy this year. Because none of these guys really stand out. But that seems like a better alternative. We shot are shot with, with Trent Taylor. And with Matt and breed, Breda, man, I got mad Breda. I'm like, I'm out on these undrafted guys for like, at least another five years. What pain that record? Aftermath Breda, the stated position of the perils podcast is that undrafted players never matter. Like that's the one. Get was the one guy. He was the generational talent in. We hit on that one or on to the next. I actually it's, it's possible that Matt Brita is a long shot to make the Russell at this point. He'll make it. I hope he does. I really hope he does. But, you know, Devin Coleman hype train, I don't, I don't want to start another hype train I only have one hype train for map Breda that you. All right. So j Patel. Another friend of the pot asks, and this is actually a good one. I'm glad that, that Jay Patel, asked this, but for the past five years, it seems like we've been an injury. Hell and every year here on the pod, the injuries will regress towards the mean but that isn't happening. Is it coaching location training, too much, not an a practice luck? I really love the fact that he put location in here like something about Santa Clara. It makes you more injury prone. I want to explore that as upset they area air that just fucking with them. It's just the depression from having, like two story just constant ranch, homes and staccato all like at equal level. Like shit. I'm an NFL player and I still got seven roommate's like this isn't cool. I'm surprised. She didn't catch me things to KADO instead of stucco staccato is not the word I was looking for payment. It's probably for the best. All right. So football outsiders. So I think some context because let's let's actually confirm the fact that the Niners have been an injury hell because it seems like we've been an injury help, but a lot of times when it comes to stuff like this. We lose context around these ideas or around these feelings. So let's go to football outsiders. And let's go to their AG L or adjusted game loss. Metric, which is a really good way of measuring injuries to a team basically what they do is they take the number of snaps the or not that players are starter. And the number of games of that player ends up being out for is. And they adjust for a couple of things as your adjusted games lost that way you're not penalized for having some scrub who was never going to see the field get injured as opposed to your starting quarterback. So it's a really, really good metric to measure injury impact on an individual team. And they did do a couple of tweaks to their formula this year. But this year they saw the highest number of injuries ever in the NFL and injuries have been slowly and steadily climbing with. Eighteen of course setting the record. So injuries have been on the rise. And this was one of the most injured years in the NFL, but even then the Niners have been pretty terrible. When it comes to injuries, you look at their age EL ranking in two thousand eighteen it was twenty ninth twenty seventeen. It was twenty-third twenty-fourth twenty-seventh, and then twenty third. That's the last five years, they've never ranked better than twenty third in the last five years in adjusted games law. So I would say it's kind of pretty accurate that the Niners have been pretty shitty. When it comes to injuries over the last five years injury. Hell check. Yes. So what causes that and are the Niners primed for kind of a regression to the mean. And then there's a couple of things here I think one absolutely it is luck, but too. I think if again, this is completely subjective just thought, but I do think injury to a certain degree of skill. There's some injury luck that is there. But I do think there is some players that are. Consistently injured. Jason Brett Jimmy ward two players that come to mind when you are constantly taking gambles on players that are injured or have a history of injury. Then I think you increase your likelihood that those players will be injured in the future. Yes, there are the Frank Gore's of the world who have a C L surgeries and their shoulders or ripped to shreds, and their thirty six years old and still play in the NFL. But gore is the outlier. I think overall if your strategy is to draft players and try to get some value from drafting injured players, then you shouldn't be surprised if your team is consistently injured, right? Yeah. To me. I think those are the two things that I would point to, I think one, yes, it is. The, the majority of the explanation here is that it is just a really terrible run of luck this shitty luck like injuries all of the evidence. We have about injuries suggests that no team is consistent. You know year after year like this. Right. You have random stretched like this. Like, I remember the giants, I believe it was also like had a terrible run. Three four five years, where they also finished among the worst in the NFL in terms of Jessop games, boss, like you have those random teams like this. I feel like right before this stretch. We actually the forty Niners had the opposite. They have hundreds of. Yeah. Like four out of five year stretch where they were one of the healthiest teams in the NFL. I don't think you can pin a ton of it. I mean again without knowing in the some of the same strength and conditioning staff that were under Jim Harbaugh made it through a lot of the other coaching regimes when those injuries flipped. So it's not like Jim Harbaugh. Some magic sauce that he was so good at football that he had great strength and conditioning coaches some of that staff went through and was also part of the strength and conditioning staff that was bad under Tom sue, and Kelly. Right. I was going to say, like a lot of the coaches they've had of been very health focused. Right. Like you think it chip Kelly, especially right, all of the stuff that was made a big deal of like with the sports science stuff, and everything that he had been, you know. Eating into practice to try to limit injuries. I think Shanahan has mentioned things like that. They're fairly light on practices, like trying to really go out of their way to keep guys healthy. And ultimately that just hasn't come to fruition. Right. So I think, yeah, part of it is just some really shitty lock. And then the other part of it is like you mentioned taking maybe more chances than your average team on guys who have had a history of injuries. Right. But they are a little bit more apt to signing players drafting players with an injury history than other teams. And I think that hasn't really worked out. They I I don't know that you can point to really one example of a player that had a major injury history that they've taken a chance on that is suddenly been healthy in a big impact player for them. So contagious streets still has time. Sure, I'm sure that'll be fine. Yeah. I think overall it is probably a combination of bad luck. I do think you'll see probably some uplift here. I do think the other part that impacts our perception of these injuries is the precise position that is injured. I think the last couple of years, you've had injuries to of course, Jimmy Garoppolo but I think calling cabinet pours head injuries. And you know we had to endure Blaine gabbert for the length of time that we did simply because Colin Kaepernick was injured. And so the last two quarterbacks that we would consider franchise quarterbacks have been injured for long stretches of time. And I think that also kind of skews perception and affects the team in a way that isn't affected that running back injuries affected too. Right. So sure, I think those all those things you put them in a bag and, and yeah, I think that you probably will Steve will see some regression to the mean but I think you're not going to see, you know, all of a sudden a long stretch of the team being, you know, one two or three because the other thing here is that, that yes, they've been bad. Last five years, but they still haven't been worse than the league in any one of those five years, they were last year in terms of injuries lost. They were closer to middle of pack. They're closer to eighteenth. Then they were close to Tampa Bay which was the thirty second ranked team. They lost like over one hundred sixty games to injury and the Niners lost like over one hundred like they lost shit ten games. Yeah. I, I think it's still been very bad, right? Like you don't necessarily have to. This is an area where you have to be the worst into like truly be in pretty bad shape. And I think they've been like part of the issue too, is that the injuries have been so spread like you looked at last year specifically they were near the bottom in both offense and defensive Asia. Right. So it wasn't just like one side of the ball. It was affected. And you still at least have your healthy core on the other side to hopefully carry you, like they weren't as banged up across the board and think that's really tough to overcome, especially in a team that was rebuilding doesn't have a ton of depth writing. And so you have very few. Quality high end players to begin with. And if some of those guys start to miss time, it just has an outsized impact on, on your ability to win games. And so I think this year though I mean, again, the thing won't change like if we do preview before the season and we're still going to be talking about, like look injuries like history tells us that they have to get healthier at some point just by sheer luck. Right. And I think we're gonna see a lot of stories like the most likely outcome is that they will be healthier. They'll at least get back somewhere to middle of the pack, even if they're not the healthiest team in football, and people are going to say that, oh, this new training staff that they brought in was the reason for that. And that won't be true. And then they'll go on and next year they'll either be better worse again. And it's going to have really nothing to do with that stuff. It's just like injuries are largely luck. And that's just unfortunately how it is. I will say this. I think the the best teams have or have the ability to weather the storm of injuries. I think the, the best example would be what the eagles were able to do where like, yeah. You have some injuries, but they've got a plan and between coaching and having a player that fit your to weather that storm for at least four games, and that's all you need. Especially for on a run. Really, really good rosters or able to weather injury storms. I think unless you know your injuries at quarterback. And that's kind of a different thing, which is why maybe heels is a bad example. But overall injuries are going to be effective life in the NFL and solid rousers top to bottom are able to find ways to weather that storm until they're really really good players. Come back. And so when the Niners have a much more complete roster. I think their injuries won't be as felt I think by the fan base if Jimmy can stay healthy. It'll be fun. All right. Let's get to a quick lightning round really, really quick one two or dancers. And the questions are hopefully, structured that way. This isn't gonna work. I know isn't never works out. Got damning RI David lightning around for question go, if you are a very God trainer and you granted a season of health, and you could only granted to one player, who would you granted to Jimmy awarded Jason Brett, Jason Brett agreed. There was an MBA lottery, talk in the comments should the NFL moved to a lottery style draft to prevent tanking. Yes or no, not the prevent tanking. But I don't know why not. That would be it would be absolute bedlam could you believe if you find trading picks would be Hillary? I don't know. I haven't thought that much about it. I don't know. Like if there's a really strong counter argument to going lottery style, but seems fun. I think the counter argument would be that you don't actually prevent parody because then you have what happened in the NBA draft this year, which is New Orleans getting the first overall pick cool. Don't reward shitty teams. I am. I am in favor of not rewarding incompetence like flat out like dynasties everywhere it's not even dynasties like playoff teams are still end up at the bottom right playoff teams aren't part of the lottery. It's only your non playoff teams. And so, at least that's how it is the NBA. And so. Yeah. Like your odds of a decent like fringe playoff team. Like, imagine if a fringe playoff team was able to add Cuyler Murray, a team that had like a fairly good Rosser, but was had a shitty quarterback middling quarterback that they can never get out of wouldn't it be more fun for that team to, like, get a good quarterback and be good and fun team to watch than having the like allowing the jets to luck into Sam darnold and fucking ruin him like yeah. So you don't want to adjust lottery, you want to you just want to relegate teams. I mean don't reward shitting and incompetence. That's all I'm saying. Let's let's, let's create a relegation system. Let's put them all on the af and then make you watch them all. Dear got. All right question. Three vans. Donald has some hands. That's the username CS. Yes. I love that. That's why I wanted to read the whole thing. It's great. It's fantastic username on nation. Who do you think we'll be the biggest surprise cut? And also the biggest long shot to make the fifty three man roster. Oh, god. This isn't lightened around all longshot. We already covered yet. Shitting on the little guy. I got nothing for you. There surprise cut. I don't think that there's anybody that is that big of a surprise. It's not good enough for surprise cuts. Yeah. These years going to be the longshot, I think, surprise cut. I'm probably going to go with born and I mean my my, my other is going to be tunnel Coleman. All right. I mean, that would be would be a little surprised that. Yeah. I think though the top three random Baxter and B find looking quickly at the roster. Yeah. I mean, I think maybe. Maybe born maybe I don't know. There's not enough good players that are going to be on the cut, like all the cuts are going to be expected, who leads the team in sacks? Who I think we've mentioned this before at some point, I'll lean slightly towards d Ford because I think that there is a very good chance that he gets the most an advantageous opportunities to rush the passer most one on one opportunities with Buckner and Bosa spending a lot of time on the same side on the opposite side of him to kind of draw a lot of the attention draw the slide protection their direction. So I think it will be set up for him to get the most, I'll go him, if the secondary is at least decent and the pass rush meets the highest petitions for twenty nineteen do the forty Niners have the offensive pieces to win a championship. Defenses what decent yet? The secondary is at least decent and the pass rush meets the high expectations for twenty nineteen. Wow. So great pass. Rush average secondary probably puts you above average defensively. Sure. Why not? Do they have the offensive pieces twenty championship? Yeah. I mean, I think again, it comes down to like the rest of the pieces, it's all a swimming health, of course. But again, I think if Garoppolo is good as we've think he is. And I think that there is legitimate, like top five potential with him. They're playing especially playing in Kyle Shanahan offense. I think the marriage of his skills, and what this offense asks is very, very good and is set up for him to do very well. And if that's the case like that is by far the most important thing to being a very successful on championship, contending team. And if you have a defense that is above average to go with that. I think yes sure yeah. I think it'll be, I think this is where the margins really matter. When you're talking about getting into championship kind of level. And I think on offense, I think, on offense the thing that, that leans me in the direction of possibly just call Shannon like that. That's the one thing where it's like, yeah. That's probably the most important piece. If you're looking at offense and other than that, I. Think. Well, yeah, because the thing is, is like I would say that I don't think the defense will be that good. And so it's more likely that they're not at that level. Right now is like how I would would look at it. Realistically, but again defense is volatile if everything or at least a lot of things break. Right for them there. And they ended up having that good of a defense then yeah, I think I think it could happen. And now we're gonna get to the game of thrones portion into the podcast. I think that wraps up all the forty Niners stuff we're going to spend the last couple of minutes on game of thrones recap in the last couple of episodes talking, but about our feelings answering one nine or, or one football related game of thrones questions about wins above replacement. But if you have no interest in game of thrones now's the time to hit festival down. Time to check out. Thanks for listening. You can always follow me on Twitter, at better rivals. They fall you at PF underscored David and as always go Niners. Let's talk. But thrones. All right. So Kelly, he says, which remained in game of thrones character had the lowest a wins above replacement score. Oh my God. Who is the running back of game of thrones? Now currently rate currently remaining character, the who am is the running back. I would say, okay, I come to mind. Great worm. You that seems harsh? Not as harsh as a war crime. I mean. Yeah. Do you was a little angry? Imagine. You know you're mean you can't you can't just got her head chopped off. Can't put Tyrian not on this list. Tyrian has had some pretty shit moves last. Yeah. I mean what are this kind of bullshit? But Tyrian as he currently stands is probably they're like he's costing his team wins. Like he negative war, like, like, basically, if you were to replace Tyrian with a, a hand of the king, or Queen that you signed off the street, could you get better advice? The answer is probably, yes. The answer is probably, yes. It is sad much like the writing for the show. Yes, because it's strong strong. Yeah. Fucking terrible. It sucks, man. It's so bad. They've the thing that frustrates me. The most is that and I think they said it best on the ring our podcast, but it's like we're reading the Wikipedia entry for the season as opposed to actually watching this season because they're just zooming through everything because they, they did not leave themselves enough time. And the importunate reality is that HBO this HBO's cash cow. They were like. Yeah, absolutely. Here have more money ten episodes. Go ahead. You wanna thirteen episode season. Go right ahead. You can do it too left. Exactly. And bending off and Weiser like now we're done. We always said it was going to be seventy three hours and that's what it was going to be. And it's just it's bullshit because they are zooming through way too much. None of the character turns feel earned it feels like you are throwing away character development and creator artists that have been in the works for years, and you're just left with this empty what? The fuck dealing episode after episode. And it's like I like, oh, yeah, I think I mean by far the largest mistake was the point at which they finished season. Five and basically decided. Excuse me, season six and then decided that we've got to shortened seasons to go like your decision to do that was bad. If you if you wanna maintain control of the show that decision was poor. So if you wanted out like I can understand that sure you've spent like what a decade at that point like on this show, you want to do something else. Cool. Turn it over to someone else who wants to do it, and by all accounts. There were several reasonable candidates that could've taken that over that we're very interested in bested in the story and these characters that could have done a much better job at running out and given time that deserves. I saw a really interesting threat on Twitter, though, that I think actually Chris Brown smart. Oh, yeah. About the mayor's is the rational actor. No. It was this idea of like a essentially getting different types of writers. Right. So the it kind of boil down to all writers fall, into one or two buckets. Right. You're either a plotter, or Pancer, which I've never heard these terms before panther like flying by the CD your pants or. Oh, okay. So. Powders plotter, is, but Pancer, right. So plotters like the dichotomy essentially plotters are writers that plan everything out in advance and have an idea of where the story is going start to finish before they really get going. And then it's just a matter of kind of connecting the dots. So a lot of times with them, you get a plotlines that are very tight, but you can maybe sometimes lack on character development because they're just they already know where they're going, and they're not always necessarily making decisions that are true to what that character would do. At least it can feel that way at times Panthers are very much what George. Dr Martin is, which is, I don't necessarily know where I'm like, I may have loose idea where I'm going, but I really am figuring this out as I go. I'm putting. Okay. Character in this position what do I feel like the character would do here and I just keep following these threads and following these threads based on what the characters what I feel like they would do? And so there, you usually get very, very good characters that you feel like. And so I think for five. Seasons six seasons. They were going off the George Martin's script, which was written in this specific style. That was like very deep complex characters. Things actions have meaning all of this type of stuff that, that if you love game of thrones you liked about store, and then basically off wise are plotters. So you had this switch into a condensed time line, where you went from one type of storytelling to a different type of storytelling, and condensed it all into thirteen episodes, and then as a as an audience, you that's very jarring. Right. And I think that's kind of what everyone is really experiencing. I think it makes sense. I don't think it necessarily justifies what they've done in really fucking being terrible this season. But I thought it was like a really interesting perspective on, on kind of why some of these changes because they, they essentially, right? If you look at it from their perspective, George told them where he thinks that it's going, they had the end game in mind. And they're like, okay, we've committed. We have thirteen episodes. We know. You need to get here. Let's make it happen. And so all of a sudden characters at that point, are no longer being like true to the actions that we would expect them to have based on what we know about those characters they just got to get from point A to B to C so we can get to the end game. And that's really, what has happened. But I think part of the mistake is, is if they are indeed plotters, and they were like, all right. We know exactly where this is going to go, and we're going to have our actors do that from and have that in mind from getting the end. That's the part they missed Danny had no idea that she was going to have the turn to the mad Queen because I think Emilia Clarke is fantastic actress and she is literally turning dog shit into something. She's literally on a mechanical dragon showing emotion, and you can actually see that emotion. She's working with a dog shit of a script, and you're actually able to put some stuff together, if they were to have told her from the get-go, look, your Aric is that you're eventually going to go crazy, and you're going to commit genocide, then the things that she did in season. Two. Three four and five. They would contribute to the ultimate turn. It wouldn't be a two episode turn. So I don't know that you're that you're selling me on the idea that they're plotters. So I think they're plot. Like when the story became there's right was after season. Six I just think that I think it's only they only plotted that time the rest of the time from one through six, they're working off somebody else's plan. Right. They don't have to. They have the script there for them. And then now you get two seasons where they had to be in charge of what happened essentially, they had to make up the story they no longer had source material the build it from. And that's where they became the plotters that they actually are. And so they said, this is how much store we've got this is where we need to get like let's fuck and make it happen. And the result is just like this complete jarring experience. That's untrue to everything that we learned through the first six seasons, but I, I'm not even convinced that they're necessarily good writers like when you look at their actual credits. Like I was looking at Ben. Obser- when I'm looking at Benny credit list, Reiten, okay. Twenty fifth hour was pretty good. Troy was a fucking abomination. It was awful. And so, because the argument that I think I would be most sympathized to is a little similar to the argument, you're making, which is their great adapters. They're terrible creators. So when they're adapting story, they're very good. But when they're creating something new, they're not able to do things in the same way. Twenty hour was, I think his master's thesis, and it turned into a actually a pretty good movie with Edward Norton. It's been awhile since I've seen it but not bad from what I remember but Troy was awful. That's an adaptation, and that was an adaptation, that was complete that's been complete review that was years, actually, like it's the exact opposite of George Martin. And so I think that I'm just not convinced that they're necessarily good at the actual thing that is writing because you look at, at Weiss and he's got okay, confederate and Star Wars on his game of thrones. And it's always sunny on Philadelphia. I don't think that that's an argument that. They're good at being plotters. I think that's just more what they are. Right. It's, it's like Nick Mullins is a quarterback. He may not be a good quarterback. But it's what he is right. I think that's kind of more the argument. Yeah. It's, it's not that they like were put in a bad situation and you should give them the benefit of the doubt. I think that's just kind of a bit of what the reality is. And that is led to some, some kind of, like really shitty effects as a as a viewer, but there are so many just basic things that they don't that they don't grasp it grab the they don't actually work for anything mean agree, I it's, it's awful. I mean, the Jamie character. Arc even in the one episode is awful, the Bryanne thing was useless. I think things been used evenly good moment of this entire season was Brienne getting knighted. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Well, I, I would say the conversation between Tyrian and Jamie in the tent when he frees them do when he tells them like the only reason that's what my chance because of you I love that was pretty good. But that's mostly it. You look at Benny offs writing credits. And you've got the twenty fifth hour. Troy stay. I don't think I ever saw that didn't see on the non drill over the kite runner. Loved the book movie. It was not good. X men origins, wolverine brothers. It's always sunny game of thrones like there's one thing on here and I haven't seen stay or when the nines, roll over. So if you've seen those and those are masterpieces let me know maybe I will rent them and I will dive deep into the filmography. But up until now I just I don't know the very good because it is they are destroying this show. And the only thing I think that we can get out of this is at George Martin says they absolutely aborted the last two seasons of this show. And so let me go ahead and actually fill in the blank. Wchs. And actually write a good story in whatever years, he's got left. Right. I think that's the toughest part. Right. Is it's, it's the story that for, for me at least that I like love right? Like this is maybe my favorite story ever like I've, I've read the books multiple times. I've watched the show, you know, a bunch of different times with each episode. Like this is other than football as far as like from an entertainment perspective. Like this is probably the thing that I've spent the most time on in my free time, like over the last, however many years, it's been in so like carrying about the story and then wondering whether it's going to get an ending the books and knowing that this might be the only ending it just it sucks. You know, it just it sucks to see it end this way and be just kind of a terrible final way to go out. And so, I think, yeah, the one thing that would save it is, if it does motivate George and have to be like, okay. People hated like they finished before me, but every. One hated it. I can still do this, and this is the motivation I need to get it done. That would be fantastic. But I mean who knows at this point? But you know what we've got memes, and the means are holding the mean the meaning is wrong wrong. Absolutely. But all right. This is going to be our final. We're not going to have show next week. So this is going to be our final show before we see the finale, what are your predictions for the finale other than it being steaming, hot pilot garbage God that I'll make it through awake. I think who ends up on the iron throne. No one. Yeah. That's my that's my death pool bed. So I think yeah. I mean obviously, it's set up for for Danny to go down probably die. I guess I don't know what they would do to her. If she doesn't die, how I don't know how they would remove her from power and not kill her right, essentially. So, I think it'll be laughed everybody'll, of course want John to do it. John won't want to do it because he's John. And it'll be left to basically no one. I think if they wanted to have. Brand plate any sort of meaningful role in this entire season. There's potential there that likes so there was, I guess, I think it only happened one time in western SE history, which is the great council, which was essentially things were so fucked that all the high born people got together, and like picked a ruler somewhat democratically. And so maybe you get some sort of ending like that where brand proposes that and that's kind of where we leave things is that they're going to establish a completely different type of government to rule over west rose Samuel Charlie's evalu- pig here. He is the guy's gonna gives you like probably a long shot. But if you've got money on them I hope you're getting your return. I think it would it would be really annoying. If Sansa ended up killing denarius as well. She's just I'm curious. How are we going to get? I mean, you know what's going to happen? We can't like have the season and we're not going to see Sonya and all the people at winter fell again. So exactly he's going to get they're going to somehow get altogether. I think this is going to be funny saunas my other favorite standup up on the iron throne. I think basically John ends up, not once so Danny dies. John's like he recites one of his three lines that he has in the show. You know, she's my Queen I don't want it. Don't want it. What's the other one? I forget, there's only those that pretty much wraps it up. Belkin hate dire wolves. Might as well be the third. But I think he ends up probably like leaving north and saying at this noise and then saunas left, like all right bitches, I told you, I'm, I'm the one, and then, are you runs the army and off you go? I will leave it with this. The only thing that I want to happen in this final episode is for aria to kill Danny wearing the face of a dragon. That's that mean really really got me. It'd be a hell of a power move, but that actually officially does it for this extended episode unexpectedly extended episode of the better rivals podcasts, thanks for tuning in, and as always go Niners.

Coming up next