Ep. 2: High Expectations, PECOTA, Lineup, 1957 Cubs and Braves, Goldschmidt
Woah to. Welcome to the new best rivalry in baseball. All right. So we're back for episode number two ninety miles podcast covering strictly brewers and cubs ninety miles from Wrigley to Miller park. This is Jesse. I'm over here. Ryan are you with the I'm here? Yeah. Welcome to the new the next episode. Yeah. Welcome everybody. It's gonna be fun as we talked about last time. It's all about brewers cubs. We kind of covered that a bit today what we wanted to focus on a little bit. Because there's been some moves, you know, specifically the Bruce picking up Mike moussaka. So we wanted to hit a little bit of a lineup projection. Speaking of projections to I heard the I heard pagoda seem to have something pretty accurate for the cubs. Is that accurate? Oh, not not even close to accurate will obviously be talking about that. That's no, it's ridiculous. It's pretty ridiculous. I, you know, there's just no way thought it looked pretty pretty normal. I thought, you know, especially after moussaka stocks. They knocked a couple more winds off for the cubs. But we'll get into that more. What we really wanted to touch on today was kinda Delvin in and looking at these two clubs lineups these two clubs. I believe are going to be pretty darn stacked. How do you feel about your cubs lineup? I feel pretty good. I mean, there's a couple of question marks in some of the players that maybe underperformed a little bit last season. And also some that are on the cusp of of a potential breakout. And also, you know, a continuation of real solid seasons that last year in particular Byas. So I think in that all kinda ties to another piece we're gonna talk about as well, which will will dive into his regression progression to the mean. We're gonna talk about. Yeah. Because. Yep. Yeah. I think so you look at guys like bias brewer fans are gonna argue he way over performed probably won't match that again cubs fans argue there's no way yelich does that again. It's the first time. Oh, yeah. That no gonna be it's going to be interesting. And with fans, it's it's one of those things they start seeing these things they want to predict what's best for their team you project onto the opponent that the guys that did real well for you last year can't possibly match that meanwhile, we always liked to ignore the guys that underperformed on the opposing squad while we talk up our guys that stunk. You know what I mean? So you start looking at for me on my side the brewers lineup. Cain yellow bronze Shah, a yeller grand. All new stocks are see something like that is what is probably gonna shake out to being your starters. If you're a cubs fan, you want to say, there's no way Cain. Does that again? No, no. There's no way yellowish does. Absolutely not. With the LX that's an anomaly, but I wouldn't say that you know, as a fan base coming over from the Marlins park. He would hit for more power. He absolutely did his swing became grooved towards the end of the year. Absolutely. Do I hit him to expect them to hit? What was it three twenty six again? Probably not. Okay. So there could be some regression there. But Nord what gets obviously ignored by a lot of people. Is guys like Orlando arsia? He struggled all season last year until the last month he at three regular season home runs. I believe including didn't he hit one in the 163 game. Anyway, he three postseason home runs. The guy is capable two years ago. He hit fifteen home runs batted somewhere in the two seventies. If you're a cubs fan, you're looking at her Orlando or you're saying light hitting shortstop he can't come back from that. Well, the guy spent the first half of the season around them in does align but still managed to finish to thirty six. Now. I actually like I like that you're bringing up maybe someone that you think is is still underperforming. That's more interesting. It's almost like you're conceding that other players did over perform, so. Oh, I'm not conceding. No, no. No. No, no. You know, we aren't relying on somebody like Kris Bryant to have a great season this year. Oh, I think our lineup is deep enough that we don't have to have one guy come back and perform like he did two years ago before he got well, you know, what I'm saying. I'm just but you got to remember the comes didn't have a bad season last year. They won they won ninety years. Yeah. Yeah. And that's without Kris Bryant, so and and I'm not talking about Kris Bryant needing to overperform just talking about performing normal at nor his to you know, progressing to his mean, which is certainly higher than what he did last year. Are you be so, yeah, I would think so. Well, so you how do you see the top portion of that lineup shaking out? How do you see it coming together Bryant Rizzo by as I mean, they're the meat of the order. No doubts. That's going to be probably two three four would be my guest many games by as being I wouldn't say he's a huge question Mark because although he really did great last year. It wasn't it. It was just a the slightest tweak to what he normally has done before. So I kinda see it as his his evolution his natural evolution. So I I would say it's not unreasonable to say he'll perform similar this season. You know, whether he matches it or slightly below it even slightly below would be incredible, especially if you got a healthy Kris Bryant in there. So you know, I think the big question Mark is leadoff leadoff hitter. Which of course for the cubs. That's been been the case for a few years. You know, two thousand sixteen we had Dexter Fowler. Had a great season there. Then he went to Saint Louis, and and was terrible. Which is fine. Well, yeah, I mean, sucking is contagious and Saint Louis. Yeah. Yeah. Well, at least we can agree on that. But so it's hard to say, you know, I think mad and he likes to really play with his lineup. I hope he doesn't as much as he did last season or actually as much as he had to last season given the injuries. But I think Ben's Ober might be up there a lot. I I like him. He had a great year last year as long as if if he can just eke out one more season like that. I mean, he's getting up there in age at this point. But but he really had a good good year last year. And he's he's a good patient. You know veteran hitter. And I'd like to see him see him at the top of the order. I think the other question Mark two other players on. The cubs lineup that you know, I think underperformed last season or just haven't quite broke out to their potential, and that would be caused Schwarzer and Willson Contreras had an off year last year. I think if you know if they they kind of well contraire skits cut back on track what he had done before. And if shorter breaks out, I just think he really got derailed with that injury and missing a season. And. He's I think Schwarzer still dude needs to be in the American League. And playing h he he's new I I don't think your argument for that. Is that he's not that good of an outfielder? But I would argue he he's got a good arm. He's got a good arm mecca. He's got a good arm, and he actually played at average level. If you look at the stats is fielding stats. He played at average outfield. Now if you couple that with. Real good real good offense. You know? I think he could break out quite a bit of yet to see he's he's a very patient hitter. I mean, he has a great OB percentage. He'll take walks is batting average wasn't what I would like to see last season. But when it wasn't. Let's see it was like to. I just had that up here. I want to get really sorry. Number two, thirty eight he batted two thirty eight. He had three fifty six base percentage, though. And he was he was still good for twenty six home runs, sixty one RBI's. So okay. So I mean, I it's it's sort of like, you know, he's got the patience. He he's got the I think he just need a capitalize. What he's swinging the bad, you know, little more. And and I you know, I could I still see some good things happening. And I don't I don't agree with a lot of people saying that he's a liability and outfield. He really he really was at average numbers for most fielders now. Yeah, I'm going to agree with you is not an exceptional outfielder. He's probably not going to win and go glove. But yeah, no. He's not going to he's was much as a lot of other players would. Out there. Yeah. I mean, you're fielding percentage is don't always take into account lets you get into the advanced metrics ho few balls you're getting to in comparison to somebody. That's got a little more speed. Yeah. But I think you know, his numbers still still are at average. He has a great arm. So he he does get those, you know, make some plays there. And then when you couple that with twenty thirty home runs and sixty or more Rb is, you know, I I don't I'm not as much, you know, along the lines of him needing to be DHA in the AL. I think I mean, there's there's not much more tie. I mean for him to really he's gotta start putting it together Scott start executing at a higher level. But I think there's he's at maybe at some kind of a threshold. I think he really got set back by that knee injury that took him out for for a year. So let's see what happens this, you're so. Yeah. Well, you. Wanna talk about him progressing towards a higher mean? Right. You're. Yeah. Scheduling in that we haven't seen the ton of evidence for I'm just saying. Yeah, there he has capabilities, but you're you're projecting him to be better than he has performed previously. And you're hoping for an explosion of them. Right. So many years in that top five or six do expect to have that happen without other guys coming down. Where's your progression toward his higher mean? Well, his regression candidates. Well, I think shorebridge isn't, you know, isn't so much an example of a progression to a mean, but rather an evolution. As a player a growth as a player, you know, which is which is a little different view towards establishing. What his true mean is? And I guess that's getting into so jacking a little bit. But yeah, no, you're projecting. And that's the thing is we like to project for own players to improve and make these improvements because we see the talent there, we see the ability there, and then we like to turn around and tell other teams your guys can't come back from that. Right. That's what I was getting at his fans, we always sees things very rosy for. But we won't admit other teams can do better. Right. Oh, yeah. Let's be lucky to hit hit three ten. Lucky to hit three. Okay. Let me let me pull something up here. Okay. Christian yelich Christian yelich career numbers has three seventy five on base percentage has to ninety seven batting average. And that's going to include some years in Miami. Where he wasn't that great. His batting average was two eighty two and seventeen to ninety eight and sixteen three hundred twenty fifteen right. You might be right. So where where's behind accurate for him? Does that so? Yeah, that's that's regressing to the mean. I would agree. But what isn't being taken into account is the improvements in this lineup. Top to bottom. Right. When Lorenzo Cain came over on that same day that yellow did he was told you're going to be our leadoff guy. And that's where his numbers improved. Right. So he knew what his role was being would be in Kansas City. He had a little bit of a different role. He wasn't usually in. The he wasn't always in the leadoff spot. He spent time there, but he'd hit three hundred twenty seventeen to eighty seven and sixteen three. Oh, seven and fifteen. So his three oh eight is not an abnormality for him by any stretch, his three ninety five on base percentage was an increase right? Maybe that dips a little bit. But the thing about it is he's setting the table and came in with a role where he's taking pitches to hit in front of yellow to hit in front. Lebron's shaw. Ayar. These are all guys that are capable of hitting for high average. Now Shah an egg egg hit two seventy five Shah, maybe he's more of a two fifty hitter. But then you. Add the death of lineup grand all move stock. As two guys that leave him around to fifty. There's literally seven guys in this lineup possibly eight. That are capable of hitting twenty home runs. This is a deep deep lineup. And it's got interchangeable parts that can be moved around. I'm really excited about it. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, even if there's regression I don't care if regression from Canaan yelich because I expect for Gretchen from Bron come up from two fifty two a career three hundred hitter dang near and he's jesting swing. He's gonna hit for more power this year. I suspect Shah actually headed down here. Nobody in cubs land is actually looking at Shaw having been down not so much up, and you replace Pena's numbers with grand dolls, and all of a sudden, you've got a lot of pop, and then I expect our SIA to pick up some of the slack instead of being a two thirty six guy or a two seventy six guy that he was two years ago to fifty out of him perfect with that gold glove kind of caliber shortstop I'm pumped about this line. Oh, yeah. Well, no that that's fine. I mean, I, you know, and I guess that might bring us to talking about who has the better lineup, which I think, obviously it's going to be pretty obvious. Who would opinions we're going to have on that? But I mean, I think the cubs like like the brewers have a lot of interchangeable pieces as well. Alba elbow Maura. You know is another one Jason Heyward. I didn't even bring up. I mean, he did hit two seventy last season. His on base wasn't as as high as I'd like. But you know, I he's continuing to two things the first yet a good first half last year. And if he can dial that back in and then he Ian, have Ian hap-, I think as a lot of potential as well, he could he could really break out. He's he's pretty young still. But he's he's a real good hitter. I think, you know, fix evolving rights, and yeah. Yeah. And rizzo. I I don't even need to talk about Rizzo. He's he's solid as a rock season after season. So you know, he'll he'll continue to kind of anchor the lineup. And and so I mean if Bryant is healthy and has a normal season for him at his mean, you know, that he's established as a as an MVP. You know, which that's his mean being of course, not quite that high. But somewhere, you know, the mean of his season by season performance. He's gonna progress if he's healthy he's gonna he's gonna perform more Rizzo. You know, he performs at his mean almost year after year. So so that could be expected yet again. And then by as I think like I said, I mean, the I don't think last year was a fluke. I I don't either. I just wanted to give you some crap. Okay. Well, that's no don't expect him to be. I wouldn't expect the same level. Every year could go down a little bit just like yelich probably will a little bit. I don't expect it to be. You can't have an MVP caliber season. You're after year after year typically, that's pretty rare. Well, I mean, he he even though he had such a breakout eerie mostly it was kind of because it was not as expected. But in a way, you know, he he didn't have like a, you know, a low everyone away, you know, kind of a year. I mean, he let's see he did he batted two ninety OBT was still low three twenty six. Hundred sixty seven strikeouts. That's obviously something there. He's gotta work on he hit thirty four home. Runs hundred eleven RBI's. You know? So I mean, it's. I think looking at him specifically, it was huge. But it wasn't. I mean, I think he has even bigger seasons in him in his your weather. That's not. Oh, yeah. Yeah. I definitely think. So whether it's this season or in another year or two I mean, it's hard to say. I mean, you know, he's twenty five years old. So yes, that is young and yelich isn't much older than him. And yelich ding near won a triple crown last year too. I don't expect the triple crown type level every year. What you're saying to me is by was close to that to other than the batting average was low. I I don't know how you can expect more out of him is there room for girls. Sure, I suppose I mean if he's going to turn into a hall of fame caliber guy, which isn't impossible. Well, I mean better than last year seems push. Yelich? I'm not necessarily saying better than has to come down. Okay. Continue sarah. I'm not necessarily saying better than last year. I'm just saying I think similar around the same slightly better slightly worse. But in that same kinda area I in if if he can improve his on-base percentage than than definitely better. I mean, he isn't a bad batting average. I'm okay with two ninety. It's more the strikeouts. That's something, you know. And I know I know he's interviews. He said, you know, that's he's well aware that something that that he's working on. So he's he's trying to get the patience and the mentality to not get overly aggressive and chase stuff that he knows. He can't hit that you know, his weak spots. You know that pitchers are continued to try to explain but even as much as they try to exploit him last year. He still hit two ninety. But yeah, if if he was we'll see what happens. Exactly we will. And it's going to be a good time. So in the end, you seriously gonna tell me that you think the cubs have the better lineup. I think the brewers obviously have the better lineup. Now, you can argue some things about you know, they're talking about moose stock us at second base. Which is interesting to say, the least, and it's something we're gonna get into much more later in spring as things shakeout show or moussaka second. How much does it really hurt? You these two managers though, they're both tinkerers they both like toy with the lineup. They're going to be doing a lot of double switching and the bench that these two clubs have our deep. Where's I I'm projecting? Something like a Kanye bronze Shaw granddaughter moussaka see type lineup. What are you projecting for the cubs? Because I want to hear your concept on wear. The cubs are actually better than the brews in that lineup. As far as do. We want to go by spot buy spot in the order, maybe not necessarily. I'm just I'm just wondering I think the brewers have well Bryan potentially the best lineup in nationally Ryan Rizzo by as two three four. Okay. I wanna focus through three. Let's look at two three four that those are fairly that's fairly likely, and let's talk about two three four Bryant Rizzo Byas. And and who who did you say you're projecting to three or four for the brewers? I'm probably looking at yelich bronze Shaw, but Bron can be flipped with Eddie Laar in the five hole. So it could be something like yelich egg Yarsha. Yeah. We think we know. We may. I mean shock could that's fine there that? Yeah. It's not going to be. I mean, Bryant and Rizzo are likely going to be right in there by as it's hard to say. I mean, it may depend on who's who the starting pitcher is and things like that. So that's understandable. But just a narrow it to who are your three horses. Well, that's gonna be probably yelich Aguilar. And you know, could be moussaka sun one day, Sean, another I think the horse that you're forget. Well, no, you focus that the two three four and really this. Bruise lineup starts at the one whole. That's the problem. You're you guys are very iffy. On your leadoff, Lorenzo Cain is what kicks this off. Okay. Well, that's fair. Okay. So one through four you're talking Kane at one, which certainly you know, does something to that lineup. I'd agree. Yeah. The yeah. I mean when you've got yellow in the two hole covered with either Braun or yard depending on who's hot. And then probably a lefty in the forest Bod if you're against right handed pitcher. Yeah. So I would say normally something like Cain yelich Braun and Shaw makes sense Brun only play one hundred games though. So let's go Kane yelich Aguilera Shaw. Okay. Because really eg is gonna play a lot more games than Broncos. Okay. Well, I mean, I have to say Kane. I mean, you probably got the one spot in the Burs lineup as a little better than the cubs. Just because it's kind of a question, Mark. I mean, some projections of saying Benz over I think it's going to vary significantly. I mean Rizzo led off a number of game last year. So. So it's really hard to say. But but yeah, just while you tried to cut the one spot out. I get it. I mean, I kind of see the I can kind of understand the philosophy of the leadoff, maybe not necessarily. Maybe being as important as the game used to be played the past remember leadoff hitter. Always was agree with that. Yeah. I mean, you always had someone with a lot of stolen bases high. Batting average high on base percentage, you know, so. Obviously, that's a little little different. But but yeah. I don't know. Well, I'd I'd say the brewers win the one spot. Kane is an awesome person to have their high on base percentage. Pretty good OB p to not VP but Opie s as well yelich in the two hole versus Bryant in the two hole. Regression the mean for normal performance from Bryant puts them pretty pretty level. But some pretty arguably. So I mean yelich found is power grew last year veasley coming from Marlins park Miller park makes a difference. But he's a young player developing power. Bryant is already a little more advanced on the power side. Yeah. Let's like he's tweaking some things as see tweaks and things it's odd season. And obviously I mentioned last last episode, you know, about his launch angle. Was was it changed something with the shoulder injury something he there, and he's he's spent a lot of time on that. So it's gonna be interesting. Apparently, I've said some some interviews and things like he's he's got his power stroke back. So that's gonna make a big difference in my book. I still give yelich edge because we know he's improving. He doesn't have an injury history. That's my opinion on it. You'd probably arguably disagree or say that could be about even the three hole sh you know, Aguilar versus Rizzo. I probably give you a little bit of the edge on resumed. Okay. Okay. His I don't know if you have his numbers up or not I can try and get egg LARs numbers up. We've got last season. You know, he was hot as heck to start the year last year didn't finish his hot. But he came back around in the playoffs the postseason. He was pretty solid. There are some moments that weren't so great, but thirty five bombs. To seventy four batting average three fifty two on base percentage. So that put him with an obese which is on base plus slugging for those of you that aren't aware eight ninety and I think that's one of the most important numbers in baseball. I think it gets overlooked when you're trying to talk about the potential explosiveness of a lineup. I think Opie s is really kind of where it's at for numbers. But we've talked you'll look at Rizzo. Yeah. We've talked a lot about Opie s you know, Rizzo last year he had he did have a little slump at one point. So last year was just I you know, in some ways touch below normal. That's why Madden slaughtermen the one spot in the lineup there for bed because for some reason that seems to take Rizzo out of his slump. I don't know why. But I something. Yeah. I don't know what that is kind of your Joe Madden magic. I guess but his his opiates numbers. He was eight forty six last year. Eight ninety nine the year before nine twenty eight. In two thousand sixteen when they won the World Series shirt. You know, he's usually kinda to ninety ish batting average or so he did only hit twenty five home runs last year. Whereas the previous four years he had over thirty home runs. He's usually good for around one hundred to one hundred ten RBI's every season. So so he started his decline is what you're saying. I wouldn't say decline. I mean, he's twenty eight years old. That's not. Oh, I'm kidding. It'd be twenty nine this year. He's he's. Yeah. So right and on the opposite side of that you'll ours been a late bloomer last year was by far is best season as his first really full season as a starter. He didn't even start the first month of the year. Remember themes was getting most of the starts. So that thirty five home run. Mark could be even better. He hits for good average. What if what you're saying about he was an MVP candidate? First half. What you're saying about bias and his potential for improvement. I think there's room for Jesus to improve as well. Yeah. Then cases could be a real player. I think I'll give you the edge with Rizzo just based on history. And you know, if you wanna talk defense, maybe a little bit too. Although Aguilera's cat lake at times. But yeah. Yeah. Those if can, you know, hey, sues hits that to seventy Mark. With forty home runs. I'm golden eye. That's great. That's great production. So for the I guess talk about that. I mean by and you're you're saying, well, probably little interchangeable, depending. But who who would you want to put put against by as in the four whole, well, you know, it's going to be a mixture of and that's the hard part with this bruise lineup of her focusing just at the top. We talked about it before the show too. It's really struggled to go. Just the top half of it. I would probably. The end up putting Shaw or Braun there depending on who's doing. What's it could be grand all stock stocks? But if you wanna go Shah, well, if you wanna mix their numbers. In some way, you to or if you wanna look at one of the very similar. I is my expectation. I still think bias edge on that. Yes. Yes. Although it has been only one great year. Right. This is that I'm. We are very talked about that again, progression regression, baby. Yeah. One ever Lucien and growth. So I mean. That you get to use it for bios. I'm gonna use it for hayseeds now. Okay. Yeah. Well, anyways. So obviously, we're we're a little biased as far as some of these. But I you know, I mean, I think it's a pretty good matchup generally looking at kind of that top half of the order. I think they're pretty. Pretty evenly matched, you know with with some give and take on on either side here and there so sure and the, and you know, the hard part for me is arguing top half versing versus the entire depth of the order. But we'll get into your the second half a year order later this as as we go through the spring, probably. Yeah. I think obviously we still have those who may be kind of more in the lower half of the order most often and also bench players. And so let's cover those later this spring for sure. Yep. And I think it's pretty obvious. The Bruce have the better lineup. So. Yeah. Okay. So something that's kind of stirred up a whole bunch of stuff on Twitter. And specifically cubs Twitter would be the pagoda prediction to our tweet of the week. This week comes from Len Kasper, of course, the great cubs announcer. Pagoda isn't a bunch of people sitting around a table throwing out random predictions for fun. It's a system of data that spits projections. You can be angry at it. All you want or ignore it. But it's not some anti cub conspiracy. Biggest sake way is the division is a beast. That's what Len Kasper had to say about it. Yeah. Why those of you that aren't aware? Yeah. I'm just going to run out. The what the predictions from KOTA are currently so pagoda in the central has the brewers winning eighty four or eighty eight games and winning the division Saint Louis to eighty six Cincinnati and Pittsburgh eighty one in eighty respectively and the cubs after the mistake assigning dropped to seventy nine and KOTA. Is picking them to finish last in the division. Your thoughts. Well, you know, algorithms can only do so much. I think there's there's so much nuance and complexity, and and so many games, and and, you know, one pebble on the infield deflecting a ball a different direction, and it just so many things it's really really difficult. I think for these algorithms to get anything, right? So and you know from experience a prior year with fan, graphs didn't favor the brewers too. Well, so I think it was the previous two seasons. They had okay. Under eighty wins. So yeah, they weren't close either. Yeah. Yeah. So I mean. You know, I think I you know, what's interesting is is what I've been reading is the cubs players in the team itself is actually laughing at it and taking it as inspiration to to really push the season and to prove it completely wrong. So actually in in some interesting ways, I mean, I think that's part of the thing how humans can can react differently. And and you know, a computer might project something algorithms all say one thing. But then we can react to it. And kind of you know, I think if it lights a fire for the cubs than it it in a way projection like that has the opposite effect, and and the you know publishing the projection can actually make the projection less likely to be true in some ways. Okay. Well, I look at it from a different perspective to the brewers were predicted by fan graphs when it. Finally came out to finish last in the division. And cubs fans thought it was hilarious on Twitter. I noticed that the Burs really didn't react at all. Which I think was perfect. They won ninety six games last year won the division. And you know, it's an algorithm and fan graphs has been off the previous three years by a mile is just funny that one side the fan graphs had the brewers last the cubs. I cubs fans found that amusing Prokhoda comes out cubs fans flipped their lid because now their last in the brewers are I these things are like you said algorithms, they are not perfect lot of things change things. I think they do an okay job projecting some individual things. But you really I looked at fan graphs and thought there's no way that they're the algorithm is off they've been off the last three years. They must be not taking into account something in the bullpen. The the way council manages or they just shoot low every year on brew production. I don't know what it is. But yeah, we all as brew fans kinda reacted to that. What I did like is opposed of the cubs. I'm sure the cubs are getting peppered with questions more than brewers players where different media market. But there was very little reaction to it at all. They're just going about their business, which is perfect. So that's what I was happy about. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I'm not overly worried about it. I don't think the cubs are worried about it. I my understanding like I said is there just laughing it off and saying, well, we're we're nothing else. That's just even more fuel for the fire to really really do some things this year. I from what I understand. I think pagoda was somehow somewhere in albums they they're taking into account age of the players and regression progression. To the mean, I guess and, you know, the means of players at surname ages and so forth. So I mean, however, that's working. I mean, I think they're expecting. Less than stellar performances by like Lester and Cole hamels this season. So I but leave seen it throughout baseball history. You know, I think even older players veteran players can really surprise us sometimes. And I I don't know that you can just look at an age and say, well, there's a regression automatically. I mean, you know, now, I'm not saying either of them are like Nolan Ryan or something like that. But, but obviously there are examples of pitchers in throughout history that have even progressed, and and became even better as they got into the, you know, well into their thirties. So I don't know. We'll see and that's true. But now the general consensus they do start to decline. I don't know. I don't I didn't think hamels had been great the last couple years. Leicester's been very solid talk more about the pitching. Yeah. Yeah. And upcoming up us. Yeah. Yeah. But. Yeah. As far as that goes, the whole pitchfork nation reaction to these types of things. It's silly. It's predictions by machine have some fun with it. I heard it had gone so far as you know, there's rumored to be, you know, nasty grams and hate mail about this come on. It's just a prediction you poke some fun at it have some fun with the opponent. But really just leave the machines alone. They don't care if you hate them. Yeah. Whatever. That's that's pretty soon. Yeah. It's it's one of those things the whole conversation. We've had is. You know, my guys that sucked will get better year. Guys that sucked won't. That's really what this is boiling down to. It's a lot of fun. I think these two lineup should be very interesting. I think those predictions are probably going to end up being off in the end. It'll probably be the healthiest team that wins. That's normal. That's why love the Bruce depth. I'm curious to see what the cubs have for that. But yeah, anything else to add before we move onto maybe the seventh inning talk a little history. And I I mean, not really I mean, I think I think that kind of covers covers that I, you know, I don't want to dwell too much on the on the pagoda stuff. They'll be wrong. They'll be way off. I mean, even you can admit that it's unlikely the cubs will be last in the division. I don't know. All I remember is getting texting at looks about right when the fan graphs thank. Anything? I don't have to admit anything. Okay. All right. All right. All right. So seven seventh inning. We're going to take a look at some classic lineups. We were we were looking into some historic lineups just for some fun. And since we're talking lineups today with that it would make sense. So we're talking nineteen fifty seven we were looking at. Yeah. So I guess, you know, given this is the ninety miles podcasts. Now, some some some may it's interesting how people separates should briefly touch on that we're looking at Milwaukee baseball. So that doesn't have the necessarily the specific brewers franchise of today. But rather we're gonna sometimes if we're diving back we might be looking at the the Braves. Yeah. That's what what we're kind of looking at a little bit today. The thing about Milwaukee baseball, Milwaukee's always been a baseball town. I did live there for peer to my life. I don't currently which is not a big deal. But I spent some years down there and the roots in that town run pretty deep for baseball fans. I had some older friends that would talk about the Braves of the past the Milwaukee Braves specifically. No in a franchise moves in some sports keeps the history takes it with them. You really don't take away the city's history the Milwaukee Braves, they weren't there forever. I think it was actually kind of a shorter stint. The Braves were in Milwaukee from I believe, oh shoot. Where did it? Go. See? And this is stuff that I'm learning about to. They were only there for about fifteen years, but the nineteen fifty seven squad is amazing. And what we wanted to talk about a little bit today. Is that Milwaukee Chicago rivalry? It's not. This is brand new. These two cities have played National League ball against each other before. And that's really what I wanted to kind of look at there's the nineteen fifty seven Braves Milwaukee Braves ended up winning the World Series. And that is the last time the city of Milwaukee had a World Series championship so up until twenty sixteen Milwaukee had by above fifty years of more recent World Series championship than Chicago Cubs, which is fun. But now, it's, you know, getting to be a little bit of a long term thing getting into the lineups. So we kind of picked out one game came from may twenty fifth. Nineteen fifty seven the Braves at cubs Wrigley field. There's some funny things about this game. You start looking. There was four hall of fame players on this brave squad that ended up winning that World Series. Some very big names. Obviously Henry Aaron everybody knows Eddie Mathews who we're going to talk about a little bit and talk about a little bit about Ernie banks. Warren Spahn, the great left handed pitcher, and the wrench shown dice red shown dice also was on that squad hall of Famer when you start looking at those lineups. It's amazing. So you know, you get into the three and four hol you've got Eddie Mathews followed up by Hank Aaron followed by Joe Adcock. These guys were power hitters. They're great ball players. You know, did you wanna take a look a little bit at that? Cubs lineup. You've got your side pulled up for that. Yeah. Yeah. I mean. The cubs in nineteen fifty seven. I mean, they weren't necessarily real good team. They're pretty bad. You know, they they did have already banks. He was young. He was twenty six at the time. In other than that. I mean, you know, they're still kind of they you know, they were kinda in that lovable losers. This is a good ninety fifty seven was ten years out from there. Little over ten years since their previous World Series appearance. So this is in the, you know, they've had a decade here of championship drought, of course, as the first of of another few decades, but know. We were they the lovable losers before WGN picked him up. I mean did that kind of developed later, you know, said something we should cover. We go into that history. I think the lovable losers things really came came about, you know, I'm trying to remember I seem to remember it as long as I've been alive, certainly it was around in the eighties, obviously. And with WGN. Yeah. We we could dive in some other history to at another point on that. But but but yeah, yeah. It was I'd like to talk. Go ahead. Well, I mean that's season already banks. Like, I mentioned was still kinda getting really getting into the meat of his crew. He's he did hit two eighty five. He had hundred to RBI's and he did hit forty three home runs. So it really was kinda. You know, that's pretty strong. Oh, yes. Really strong. Yeah. Absolutely. You dig into that lineup that the Braves had at the time. Like, I mentioned that three or four five role where you had Matthews Aaron. That was a heck of a lineup the year that that happened. I believe that's your hand won his MVP. He batted three twenty two. He hit forty four home runs. You know, number forty four hits forty four pretty cool guy that doesn't get as much love because nobody really thinks back in Braves history and things about Eddie Mathews because the majority of his career was as a Milwaukee brave people, remember, Hank. Aaron obviously, breaking the babes record, you know, getting into that kind of stuff, but Eddie Mathews was a monster. And you go and dig into him, and I'm not trying to short change Henry Aaron here. I think we all know about what we don't all. Remember is the the quality that Eddie Mathews brought to the table he spent from fifty three to sixty five in the Milwaukee Braves uniform, and then sixty six they went to Atlanta, and then his career kind of tailed off. There's nineteen Fifty-three hit forty seven home runs three. Oh, two. Batting average Opie over one thousand nine hundred fifty nine forty six home runs Opie nine eighty three this guy just racked up monstrous numbers in the end, you know, his career batting average. Let's take a look here if I can pull it up his career batting average only ended up to seventy one, but he hit five hundred twelve career home runs. That is a monstrous number. In fact, I think it's if I'm not mistaken his numbers, we looked at them really pretty comparable the Ernie. Yeah. In fact, we were we were looking at that and around kinda similar era. I mean, fifty seven was was Ernie banks. It was his fourth season. He he did have a good start. He did win rookie of the year or second. Sorry is second place in the voting rookie of the year in nineteen fifty four. He was an all star though this. This would aband- fifty seven was his third trip to the all star game having gone the two previous. But it was fifty fifty eight was fifty eight and fifty nine whereas MVP years. Sure. So this is just prior to that. Although he did have some monster years. These first few years, you know, including Fifty-seven was was a pretty decent year. But you know, eighty five to ninety seven to ninety five I mean to seventy five those first four years, but nineteen fifty eight he batted three thirteen yet. A six fourteen slugging percentage nine eighty oh PS forty seven home runs. So which which was he led the majors that year. In fifty eight. Mhm? So you'll yeah, we were looking at that. And it's very interesting. How similar they're probably it'd be fun to dig into some anecdotes or anything as far as that robbery with those players in particular because they would have rights face face each other a lot that -solutely. Yeah. That Milwaukee Chicago rivalry was developing already then no in a way. Obviously the times are very different. There's probably a lot less travelling between cities by the fans, which is obviously changed the current rivalry. But you go back fifty seven fifty eight fifty nine that means I think if I'm not mistaken Henry and in and won the MVP and fifty seven Ernie banks in fifty eight fifty nine many of the a lot of great baseball players playing each other in this series. Then you mentioned Ernie's third all star game was fifty seven that was Eddie Mathews fourth all-star game. Yeah. These guys the way their numbers lineup. I think if I'm not mistaken Ernie have the same career home run number v. Five twelve it's just really fascinating to look at some of the parallels from way farther back in the history of these two cities as far as baseball goes. Yeah. Obviously, Milwaukee lost a couple of teams Chicago Cubs stayed in Chicago. But. Yeah. It's pretty fascinating something we want to talk about more and cover more all the time. We will we will be bringing up as much as we can. And I think we just wanted to look at one one game that season in particular that they played each other. Yeah. You know, which was that may twenty fifth game fifty seven may twenty fifth nineteen fifty seven at Wrigley field. The game duration is three hours. Twenty four minutes. Day game, obviously didn't have lights at Wrigley you. So a long time. No lights, right? So. Yeah. That was an interesting lineup. Bill Bruton for the the the Braves here. Dick Cole Eddie Mathews in the three hole. Aaron and the four whole Adcock in the five hole. Like, we talked about it turns out some things that happened which are interesting with the pitching staff it ended up being a seven to six Braves victory. But the cubs ran out and they were up three nothing after two they're up five to one after four. And that's when the Braves started coming back. That means we always talk about how pitchers used to go the distance. And you know, they were tougher back. Then you know, things like that. I think the Braves used one two three four four pitchers five pitchers. Six pitchers in that game. Six seven two six ballgame. That's quite a few. Yeah. The the weirdest part about it. Everybody remembers Warren Spahn. For being a great starting left-handed pitcher. He closed this game. He got a save. Yeah. Looks like one out save he got there. Yeah. So which is just bizarre to think about he started thirty four games that you're made thirty eight appearances. So this is one of the four relief appearances for Warren's Bon which is kind of fascinating little curve all in the the game. Yeah. Takeaways you had just kind of looking at the box scores and thinking about how this might all gone. You looking at the box score you'd think this was a game played today. Like you mentioned with the pitching changes. But part of it. I you know, there probably were they some of the pitchers weren't finding the strike zone. And we're given up hits. I see looks like. Oh, let's see dick Littlefield. He was the third pitcher. Well, Don Kaiser started for the cubs. You know, he'd through five innings but gave up six hits three runs four walks than this looks exactly like a box today. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I mean with. With you know, kind of both teams just to the pitchers struggled a little bit. And boy Taylor Phillips for the Braves looks like he pitched two innings and gave up four walks and two bras. Yeah. That's not not his best outing now, probably. Bob, you'll made it a whole inning and a third. I don't know. Maybe that was but he gave up gave up six. He started the game. Give up six it's three runs two earned. So I think there's an Eddie Mathews air in this game after I talk them all up. Yeah. Right. Ernie Johnson comes in and gets the wind late goes three and two thirds still goes up three hits run one earned. That's not bad over three innings, and then spun comes in to get the final out and picks up a save. It was a high scoring game. Both teams use actually did both teams use six pitchers each it looks that way. So twelve pitchers used in this. So let's not always, you know, dig ourselves a hole and say, oh, they never use pitchers like they do today. Yeah. Yeah. All these changes it happened. It definitely happened. They did some different things at times too. You know, you would never think Warren Spahn coming in for save would be normal because it's not. But right it happens. So yeah, I just thought that was that was a fun game to kind of just look into cover and these types of things we wanna do in that seventh-inning. Yeah. Kind of historical segments. Do a lot more of this than in other episodes, because that's you know, that's fun stuff. I think the history is is one of the. The, you know, I mean, baseball's the greatest sport. And a big part of that is it's history to such a long rich history. And it's fun to to, you know, take a peek at at low moments like this in a magic sitting in the bleachers at Wrigley and in nineteen fifty seven watching this game. You know? Oh, man, if I had a time machine. This may be one. I'd check out. Yeah. Yeah. Cool. I might opt for one where the cubs win. But, but yeah, this would have been. Well, we can go for two games vote that will find one where they go back to back. Yeah. Anyway. All right. So I guess that brings predictions, right? Yeah. You're supposed to have kind of a fun fun. Yeah. Okay. Let's do it. So I am going to go ahead and make prediction, everyone knows about Anthony Rizzo as tendency to be, you know, he really crowds plate. So more often than most players. He tends to take one take one off the arm. You know? And so I'm gonna go ahead and predict that in the month of April. He's going to be hit by a pitch. Oh, I've been trying to determine the number. I'm gonna do it on the spot here. I'm gonna go ahead and say. I'm gonna say seven times. In april. Seven times in April. It sounds funny. But I looked up his splits and in the month of April. Now, remember this is including those couple games at the very end of March. So so let's just to clarify its from the very beginning of the season through the end of April. So there's a couple of games there at the end of March. But. Last year. He was hit seven times. In that same Breuil in April. So your prediction than is seven or more times hit by pitch in the month of April. So when we're watching games and checking things out watching box scores will kind of be updating how many times Anthony Rizzo getting plunked. Yup. That's actually pretty fun. You know? I would definitely not crowd the play that much anymore. I've seen some of those bruises guys get on those ninety five mile an hour, plus fast aches, he's gonna Pat on his arm there, and oh, yeah. Sure. He he's crowding the plate so much if it's coming in. I mean, he doesn't really have the time to move. I think he's he's developed a technique. In ways to take it. Although he's still winces every time. So I can't imagine even with a pad that feels very good. But but I mean that would that would be bad. Yeah. No reason from the STAN I mean, at least he's still doesn't mind hanging in there. Actually, you know, it's interesting two thousand fifteen and two thousand seventeen he lead all the major leagues in hit by pitches with thirty and two thousand fifteen and twenty four and two thousand seventeen he had twenty last year which included seven in April. So I'm actually it's not even that crazy prediction, but it's just an odd thing to predict I guess, so right. Well, seven in one month. I mean, that's an awful lot. Because you figure you play about a six month season any only ended up with twentieth. Sounds like April minutes a lesson last year. Yeah. That was April was certainly as for some reason, he really got hit a lot of times. But maybe it's maybe it's because pitchers are still trying to find their control early in the year. I don't know. But I I'm gonna go ahead and say seven or more that's right in line with last year. But we'll see what happens. All right. Well, we'll Mark that one down. We'll keep track of these. We've got a we've got a file where keeping track we're gonna look and see if there's a way we can get some of these predictions out of the the ninety miles podcast webpage. You can always check us. Oh, yeah. That's yeah. That's a good idea. We'll put up we'll get a page on there. So ever can see ones that have been put out there and ones that are have come to be and who was right or wrong, which is the funnest part, you know, 'cause I plan on light much more often than you are so well, you know, I don't think that'll ever happen. Right. More often than you. So. Things will change. Okay. You know, there's no regression to the mean on my predictions, right? Yeah. Well, getting to what I was supposed to be was the little bit more serious. Although yours sounds like it hurts a lot more than mine does. Yeah. I've been I've been a big proponent of the on base plus slugging stat being a very important one. In like, I said earlier talking about the explosiveness of a lineup, and how strong and powerful it can be just to give an overview what is on base. Plus slugging in case, you don't know your base percentage is your total hits and walks. Divided by your at bats or actually. Yeah. That's it's at bats divided by hits and walks. So an at bat isn't counted. If it's a walk. So you're on base percentage is usually higher than your batting average unless your hobby by because he never walks anyway, that's a different story. Just kidding. All right. And then plus slugging slugging percentage is your total bases divided your at bat. So let's say you're one for four with a double that's two bases over four at bats. That's a point five zero slugging percentage. So to break it down Opie s is those numbers combined. The brewers last year had four guys over a point eight or eight hundred percent on base. Plus slugging yelich Aguilar, Shah and Kane were all for over eight hundred that is a very large number eight hundred is an excellent season. It means you're hitting for power you're providing runs you're getting on base. You're generally hitting for a decent average. I predict this season with this lineup. The brewers are going to have seven hitters over that point. Right. Eight hundred seven it's crazy. It's not okay. Seven hitters seven. I'm predicting not going to predict which ones are which so we're gonna say seven qualified hitters. That's just qualified. So just last year. It was yelich show. Sean Kane Ryan Braun who had a very down your only fifty four with only three thirteen on base percentage. Still had a point seventy to opiates. Okay. I expect his go over eight. Okay. And then I also expect grand all to be over eight because he was gonna six. Okay. There's there's six. Yeah. And all you need is one more guy to qualify to have enough at bats off the bench to actually produce that seventh guy a guy like Eric Fame's. If he gets enough at bats things like that. So right, seven guys the qualify. That I write down seven hundred. I just seven qualifiers. Now. That's a stretch. It's not impossible. But they have seven guys I expect six I honestly expect six so this seven the full regular season. That's what we're talking about here. Well, regular season on base, plus slugging. Okay. I seven hitters of. Okay. No, no. I'm not trying to qualify this. But it might end up being where there's a guy that is close to qualifying. But isn't but it's over eight hundred I expect six guys the qualify over eight hundred. Oh, so you're modifying. I didn't mean to I think. When I'm looking at qualified numbers. Six qualifying hitters over eight hundred over eight so should be six qualified eight hundred. And I think there'll be a seventh guy that is over eight hundred that may not have enough at best to qualify when I hit the non I hit on the stats. I'm looking at anyway doesn't matter. Okay. I think they're going to have seven guys over eight hundred and six of them will be qualified hitters. Okay. Well, we'll see what happens. If they have that they're going to be the best offense in the National League. And I'm kind of expecting that now. Okay. That's okay. All right. Well, we'll we'll write it down. And we'll we'll see come out of the year. We'll we'll watch you know, in some ways we could look at some numbers. Do some math and see it's even mathematically possible as we near the end of the season. But that'll yeah. Yeah. We'll be projecting that throughout the year. Because I think that's I think that's gonna be the telltale sign on a very healthy offense. We should also speaking of healthy offenses, we should probably talk a little bit about our central breakdown. Yeah. This week. We're gonna talk a little bit of a lineup breakdown for the cardinals. And what we're kind of looking at their well in particular, one one addition they made which we're not real excited about seeing a lot of. No, no, nobody's excited about seeing a lot of Mr. Goldschmidt. But that's that's the nature of the game the carton. Yeah. Yeah. Better. You know, they did. You know, do you have anything pulled up on Goldie that we can talk about right off the top. Well. Yes. I do. He's a career to ninety seven hitter. Like had a five point four war last year with thirty three home runs. He's arguably probably festively one of the best first basements in the National League. If not the best. Well, that was after last year's numbers were after a terrible terrible start. He was Mendoza line for a month or two. I think so. Yeah, he was at that two hundred Mark for a long time. And he ended up at two ninety seven while. Yeah. Yeah. Well, two to ninety last year to ninety. Okay. Well, shoot doesn't matter that he had. Right. So. Yeah to he was thirty three home runs to ninety nine twenty two s that was last year. What I was looking at some splits and. Let's see if I had that pulled up here. He was was quite a monster in a way games, which is a little scary. So you know, it's gonna be interesting to see how he plays in Saint Louis at the whole park. Well, that's a. Yeah. That is that is scary. If he was doing that on the way game snow some of those away games were in chorus field in the rocky mountains. But also a lot of those away games were in San Diego and Los Angeles, not exactly hitters parks. So you're plugging a guy like Goldschmidt, basically, he's a plug and play and your three hole. Right. So you're looking at maybe projected lineup looking something like Matt carpenter Paul diong, Paul Goldschmidt, Marcello Zona who had a very down season last year coming off a very good year in Miami Yati Molina in the five hole, then you're maybe a baiter Fowler. Colton long kind of six seven eight. Now, you're looking at the top the top five of that lineup. Stacks up with anybody as well as or anybody in this division, pretty darn well five where where the brewers and cubs are going to have to take advantage is going to be six seven eight because I don't see baiter baiter actually baiter could be really good. He's excellent in the field Fowler has been down Colton long kind of an average second baseman. But when you lead off with carpenter and diong Goldschmidt. If Zuma bounces back, let's say that, you know, let's say two years ago was more the Marcelo Zona that is real. And last year was more of the outlier. This lineup gets scary. However, I think if I'm not mistaken with Marcello. Who has won a gold glove in the outfield, which is kind of funny to talk about more of his seasons have been closer to what he was last year not so much what he was two years ago with Miami. So I don't know if I see all of this progression. That these cardinal fans are seeing with their particular players, right? It's all back to that regression progression to the mean, bringing Goldschmidt in bringing Goldschmidt. And he's going to be probably over three hundred hitter. Because last year was just I think that first couple of months was just an outlier that is not Paul Goldschmidt. Well, them just I was just pulling up some splits. And and he's sure likes Miller park or whatever it's going to be called Miller park. Still right. It's Miller park. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. How's he in Wrigley, by the way, not as good as he was Miller park? But well, the wind blows in once in a while. No, he has home run up the brewers in the. Yeah. He he his batting average at career Miller park is four twenty. Limited at bats Zona. Bozo. PS one point three. That's that is a total of eight at bats. Okay. So it's not that limited actually. Yeah. Career that's career mind you career. Yes. The last couple years he hasn't done quite as well against Milwaukee. He was beating up on some lesser teams at one point. But he has been a brewer killer in the past. No doubt about it. It's not a favourite name that I like to see come into the division. I think I go look at it. And you look at the NL central across the board. He's the new best first baseman in the division. I don't even think it's really all that close. Joy was amazing. I'd probably put him in its second. But vowed owes a little older he's on a little bit more of a downhill Goldschmidt has absolutely been a beast. The National League West was not disappointed when he left you can't overlook Rizzo. They're quote, similar in some ways. But yeah, I think Goldschmidt has has a a little bit of an edge. You know? But we'll we'll see. Yeah. And and I yeah, golden and that lineup though is is pretty scary. So we're, you know. I think adding. It's going to be pretty interesting to see how that that unfolds. And and I think the both the cubs and the brewers are really going to have to. Pay attention to their their matchups when they're playing the cardinals. Those are going to be some really important games this season. Oh, we'll no doubt. I mean, this is going to be the best division in baseball. And these games are going to be tough battles. I look at it Goldschmidt. Also improves their defense. We talked about last week. Yeah. This whole this whole thing is a big lift for that Saint Louis team. There was one point where the Goldschmidt ad may have made them even a favorite because they were only a few games in the end behind last season turning him into that lineup makes a big difference. But anyway, that's. That's the kind of the heart of their order. I think you know, I think it's still the brewers and cubs as the leaders, but Saint Louis very serious player. If there's going to be a wild card out of this division, which we talked about last week is going to be tough. It could be them. Instead of the cubs are instead of the Bruce. There's no question in my mind. Yeah. Yeah. Well, at least we can both agree that we hate the the cardinals. And hopefully, we do hopefully they just really have a lot of games not go their way, especially when. Well, yeah, I look at their lineup. The six seven eight spots are not as strong. They've got pretty good starting pitching. But we'll save pitching for later on. Yeah. So we're getting towards the end here. Yeah. You know, just enough of it. I don't wanna talk about the cardinals that much. No, no. That's enough. Let's let's yeah. Let's move on. So basically, you know, that kind of wraps up the episode for the most part. Yeah. Next week. We're going to be talking about. I think the cubs in brewers opens very very offers spring training game coming up here. Yeah. That's going to be that's going to be a lot of fun. And and it happens to be the cubs brewers playing each other. So we'll get some I yet early peaks some maybe an at bat or so from some of their projected starters and starting lineup and and maybe get an early look at some of the pitchers. It's obviously going to mean a whole lot. But it just might be fun, especially see some of the new player. No. This is huge this way. Big this game one sixty four you need revenge. I should be pumped about I have a feeling they're not gonna be playing it as if it were game one sixty four, but you know, or managing, but we'll we can pretend but think this'll be. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. It'll be good. And it'll probably be more accurate than Makoto or fan graphs can time. It's all said. Yeah. So that would come in. Yeah. Yeah. It's gonna be awesome. Yep. And so that was. Well, again, this is just episode to ninety miles podcasts that we did talk over each other a little bit at the end there. Whoops, but go to the website ninety miles podcast dot com. Check it out. Anything you want to wrap up with anything? You wanted to mention. Well, the Bruce suck the cardinal suck. The cubs are the best. I don't know that you had you had one third of that. Right. Okay. Well, three thirty three is still a hall of fame Famer. So, but but I I know I better percentage than that on those. So we'll see. Oh, okay. Yeah. Okay. I was wondering where you're going with that. All right. Well. Yup. Give us a follow on Twitter again too. To editor crew fan Brooker winning at Bruecker winning. I misspoke last time at crew winning his me who are you at wraps cubs win, and you can get to salt through the ninety miles podcast dot com website as well. We also got Facebook page, that's all linked up on there. So you can you could actually just go there it links to the ninety mile podcast at ninety mile podcast, which is the our Twitter for the podcast. But from there you can link out both of us individually. Let us choose episode. And you know, like our Facebook page follow us on there and interact. We're you know, anything we brought up chat about or disagree with especially if you disagree with Jesse let us know. Somebody's gotta get after you once in a while with all your oh the best way to the best way to interact with us on Twitter at our individual handles. The main podcast handle is a little bit more oriented toward just let you know an absence drought. But if you really wanna know an episode drops extracts, clicking subscribe. And that's the best way to do any. All right. Anything else? I think that's good. That's good. That's wrap it up and move CNN's week. Yep. Cub suck dober-. The.