Guessing 2018-19 NBA Over/Unders With Joe House: The Ninth Annual Edition | The Bill Simmons Podcast (Ep. 427)
Today's episode, the Bill Simmons podcast on the ringer podcast network brought to you as, oh, as buyer friends, ZipRecruiter, you know, it's not smart, not listening to house than I an NBA over underwent totals. We had an off year for us last year and it still was not a losing year. This year will be a winning year. We feel very good about this year. You know what else is smart jobsites overwhelm you with tons of the wrong resumes. Luckily there's a smart way, ZipRecruiter dot com slash b. s. they find people. The rights goes for your job. Actively invite them to apply by listeners can try ZipRecruiter for free. It's crude dot com. Slash Bs. They are the best. They're rated number one, ZipRecruiter the smartest way to hire. Meanwhile brought to you by the ringer dot com. And the ringer podcast network and ringer preview palooza because that's happening. Oh yeah. On Tuesday, this is one of the best things we've ever done at this company and even like ranks up there with some of the grantland stuff to very ambitious all day affair on Tuesday, videos, podcasts, live watch on YouTube, the whole thing more details to come on Monday as our prepare you to ruin your day on Tuesday. If you love basketball, speaking of ruin your day called Jacko for the ringer mobile show to talk about the Red Sox Yankees in the Yankees demise. He was surprisingly level-headed. Normally we would have put it on this podcast, but we were just stacked. We had russillo and Kevin O'Connor, and I try to figure the NBA MVP talk to John C, Reilly. He was great. We still never for Jacko we, we moved our routine over to the ringer, a mobile show. So if you wanna hear us talk about that great. I might actually hop on there with my dad potentially to talk about Red Sox. Astros. It's great. It's baseball feed. We've put a baseball podcast, why not use it? So that's been fun and then bring her NBA show. We've been previewing the league for the past couple of weeks, Kevin O'Connor, Chris Vernon, finally, cannon named their podcasts that seems like the mismatch good times there. One shining podcast, the mailed Tate sixty boxes cheese. It's Kyle and cookies. Cow gotta tattooed. Tightest is coming LA. There's a world tour four cities in the mid west coming up next month. So they're having a break out good job by them and then last but not least on the podcast housekeeping front house. And I are also going on against all odds with cousin, Sal, and we're going to run that we're, I think we're gonna put that up Monday, but we're doing NBA futures on that. So that's MVP rookie of the year. Who's going to win the Taito. Finals, ma- finals matchup beds, all that scoring, title. All that stuff is going to be on against all odds with cousin sow. So if you liked that stuff, I would hop over there subscribe or keep an eye out. I don't know when that's coming up. Probably Friday. Maybe Monday were taping it today right now house and I, it's time. I don't know. This is like the eighth year the ninth year. Can you remember how many years we've been doing this NBA over under win totals answering important questions, like who the hell is Lloyd Pearson? What team does he coach? We're in find out that up right now, but fire Pearl Jam. Hello, my friends want a great show. We have on the house of that pack. Joe houses here though. Do you like my Joe hasa per station? That was that was your house. And personally, I tried, I half asked it. I have. I have asked like how Jimmy Butler half ass this week when now he's all about winning. And yet the three teams here requested trades to or the clippers nets and Knicks. I'm pretty sure those teams don't win consistently. The clippers did for like three years, but if you're all about winning, why not? But it has for trades two teams that win the rockets that makes sense loss. Look, I'm very excited to be here today doing the podcast they were about to do because it gave me the opportunity to tell you to remind you, you f ING need me. You do a win without me. Should I do that Jimmy Walker and Jan voice? Should I try and Jimmy Butler voice? Am I more towns or Wiggins. I am either talented that guy doesn't give a shit or the guy who's not an out for Doug. Oh, wait. I'm neither. I don't know what Jimmy Butler is talking about. I don't know what he's one. He's bet on this podcast twice. I liked him, but he's carrying himself like keys, Kobe Bryant in two thousand ten. It's like, make. He didn't say I'm a winner. He said to them, you can't win without me. He said to them. I know he'd me he is right. They do need them. They can't win without him. Yeah, but here's long as tips as a coach. He's unhappy playing with these two guys that allegedly don't care about winning and are soft or whatever narrative he's crafting, but then he was upset that they didn't trade him to Miami. I just want to remind people whose on Miami, Hassan, Whiteside Dion waiters. Are these guys that are like winners? What? What's going on here house? How can you be? I gotta get outta here. These guys don't care about winning. I wanna play with sun Whiteside. That's my guy. He's just to be happy anywhere he goes. I think the Miami thing is all Pat Riley. I give any time anybody says anything about Miami. I, I assume this van golly has been weaving his. His magic and has you know cast his spell IVA feeling? I would no inside information. I, I still feel in my bones that the rockets are going to. I think Miami thought it was going to be Miami a thought they had the best assets for trade other than the clippers clippers didn't wanna put Georgia's Alexander out there. Gilbert's Jill, just click it that run for the next five years. They don't wanna put shea in the table, which is fine, sir. Practive Miami had the best assets to make a trade. It almost happened. It fell through for whatever reason. And now because of the way the NBA works with these dudes that start texting each other. If Chris Paul and James harden get into this, hey, man, him envoy will. Let's get you here we, we can make this happen. Go blow up your Minnesota's situation. And then all of a sudden Darrow swoops in Erik Gordon, some picks maybe they sand Brandon nights contract, which is two years left for dang. Contract, which has three years left. They just kind of basically make it easy for Minnesota to get fifty cents on the dollar. And then they hope that Chris, Paul and hardened can corral Jim Butler does. The go-to you? Well, it makes sense with one exception. Tibbs appears to be a stubborn mother effort. Yeah, an old school. By the book, he's he stressed out a central casting for hoosiers. He could go if they remade hoosiers. He would be my number one. You know, recommendation for coach while he was single is single, like Norman, Dale. I mean, I just don't see him yielding he somebody would have to intervene and, but by the way I agree with you and I think he's right because guess guesses getting fired after the season. If if none of the stuff for out Tom thibodeau that's happening. So he's better off kind of doing this game and chicken with Jimmy Butler. And either his value goes up and December January, February. When people start becoming happy their teams or Jimmy Butler just stays either way. It's a better situation for him in his doer die years coach than fifty cents on the dollar and a trade. I think really, truly interesting intrigue there is whether or not he gets fired ahead of time because the owners just says, I'm not going to abide this. I want to get wherever I can for Jimmy Butler. I don't want this guy. I mean, there could be an owner overrule, right? Yeah. And the owner is has been a train wreck for twenty five years. The Butler towns Wigan situ. That sounds like a train wreck Butler has now been unhappy three different times in the past three years. It's in Minnesota, which you know is kind of funny in itself because the people there are probably just care about the Vikings and you know nobody wants to make a trade a week with the week left in the season. Nobody wants to shake things up. There's not the right assets out there. Can we all agree? It's much more fun if he just stays. That's how I want this to play out. I went to season start which himmy Butler in open contempt of towns in Wiggins, and they're all playing on league pass. That's what I want all for that. I have every limb of mind is up in the air right now. I have my both hands up. I have my later can stick in the air is up, right? So for that proposition, I asked her love personally. This is one of my favorite things as as a human being with weird. Weird pick billows. I love the people who carry themselves like there's something. Better than they are. And this is really a rare moment where we have is celebrity. That's not very self-aware who is doing this Amal about winning. I'm put, meanwhile, like part of winning is being a good teammate in being a leader and not just blowing things up the first chance again, which is what he's done. Now. I have just such a guy in my life here and I don't want to say any bad things about them because I'm going to say very many, very good things about him. But that's you just described John wall to a t? Yeah. Part of leadership is being a leader and being good teammate and not causing drama, and, but to be fair, like where would somebody like Jimmy Butler or John wall have had the opportunity to that that experience, they wouldn't. Right. All he doesn't have the experience. He doesn't know like the best part and his team. The first couple years he was in Chicago is was Derrick rose. Who's you know? They're not exactly making sports movies about all the great speeches, Derrick rose cave over his career. Like he's just it's a lead by example thing in a lotta ways to and I'm not sure, but there's may be seen the best examples. I think he's really proud guy. He's really stubborn. He works his ass off like the key thing. He said that Rachel Nichols interview yesterday was I'm not the tap most. The guy in this team towns is more talented. Wiggins has everything you'd want from player, but I worked the hardest, and that shouldn't be the case. It's like, all right, technically, you're right. But Wiggins is twenty two and towns is twenty two or twenty three wherever they are. They're not finished products yet. You actually can really help these guys. You could be their leader. The way to lead is not by just berating them and making them feel like shit and make them eight you. You're not Coburn. That's an extension of his head coach. Who has all of the traits and attributes that you just described? Right, which is dry. Grinding guys down, you know, coaching with with an iron fist, you know, by by all appearance isn't by reputation. The thing that I I'm interested in, we were together in Las Vegas. We had a podcast where that included some forecasting on how the league might change over the next couple of years. I really feel like the idea of the individual teams being run more like businesses where the leadership comes from an institutional culture kind of thing because we still have wide disparity a huge discrepancy between individual franchises and how they conduct themselves. The Spurs who I'm going to tell you right now, look very hard at their over notwithstanding the injury to the way. Yeah, I, it's institutional. It's a leadership by by inside from from a culture that they instill and how. The other teams in the league can't figure that out is just beyond me. There's not a lot of teams with the good infrastructure but asked, I think we're, this is the generation, the twentysomethings. I say this endearingly because a lot of them were. On the millennials aren't, you know these are millennials? This is like the submarine ios? Oh, they it's a little bit. What about me? What am I getting? Where should I go? I'm that happy ago here. It's it from a sports standpoint. It doesn't seem like anybody ever stays happy. Everybody's always thinking about asked, there's gotta be a better situation. Take a look at Butler. Butler is playing with towns who if we did the trade value list right now would be in the top eleven. He's playing with Wiggins who was really disappointing last year obviously. But you know, still has potential if he the, I wouldn't rule Wiggins out yet and they have some good role players. It's not a bad situation bothers making it see my keys on the Titanic at if you just go through. The league, like like there's real buzz now that Durant, my leave Golden State, and he's time for his next journey like this is coming from every circle of the NBA. Now it's not just like this is not just gossip. This is like this is very, very reminiscent to last year with LeBron's leaving Cleveland. It's just starting to feel like this is his last year there. To me, it's crazy. Why would he leave? He is a chance to potentially win. Four titles are three titles in three years, but they would be four and five. They would be on the shortlist. Of the greatest runs we've ever had in the league Russell south Dix the words winning four and five, the bulls winning six and eight and whatever the Mike ins Lakers did in the fifties. Like now we're talking about real history and you would leave that that seems weird to me then joined in the words in the first place. My crazy, no, and and you know, there's only a couple destinations that make sense. It does seem like with this generation of athlete, and we're not talking about sub twentysomethings anymore. Now you're 'cause we morphed into, you know, a player that's wanting to define a legacy. The only place he can go is the next any sense. What's the next? It has to be the next and has to be the Knicks. And by the way, it's actually a pretty good narrative for him and I get it. I understand it because if you, if you're, you know, obviously I've gotten to know bit not that well, but if you're starting to feel like I can't win in in, we can keep winning title. I'm always gonna take shit from people. And if you if you care about that, which I think he does the way to flip that is to go the next like, all right, man. You wanted me take a challenge. Here we go. This is this is the black sheep of the league. This team is was the first NBA team we had and they've won two titles. This team has not been relevant this entire century. This is the mecca. This is the biggest city in America. I'm gonna come here. I'm gonna bring you title. That'd be pretty ballsy. I don't think he should do. I don't think you should do it. Well, I'll tell you right now. I'm rooting for it. I'm rooting for it because I like the MBA when the Knicks irrelevant. I love MSG when MSG is bumping me. I mean, we've had, you know, just these little teasers with Madison Square Garden, getting fired up for individual players who gone on individual runs. The Lin sanity was such a great moment, but like the last extended great run at MSG the last, like you know, five years or so, it would be more finding the. League's more fun. If the Knicks are gay and there's a world in which. Next year they have RJ Barrett, Kevin Durant, Kevin Knox porzingus, and that's their nucleus like it's actually not unrealistic. Vicky also, don't. They have the money for one more free agent and they, they would have to frame tomato. It would for murder something. I don't know, can't rule it out. All right. We've we've digressed enough. We're gonna take a very quick break in United bang out our favorite podcast of the year NBA over unders. I'm super excited. I brought you here to win Joe house. So you about winning you about winning these over unders. 'cause I'm only about winning right now. I'm only with house. I don't want soft ass players around here. I'm here to win. I show maybe play renewed me these over others. I'm here to wed. Quick break. Talked about hotel tonight. Here's a little insider travel secret from our friends at hotel tonight. Tons of empty rooms at they're still available still wit and be booked at hotels hotel tonight. His partner with these incredible awesome hotels taught them. So they're unsold rooms, which means you get great deals. Forget scrolling through those never ending lists of worship. I stay what's this? What's this? 'cause just don't do it anymore. Hotel tonight shows you a select list of incredible deals, a cool hotels. They think you love the give short profiles. Of each hotel complete with all the info. You need pictures of the rooms really look like, even though their name is hotel tonight. They're not just there for last minute. Bookings book advance, spontaneous weekend getaways three day weekend, staycationing whatever you want. I am actually using hotel tonight this weekend because I have a soccer game with my daughter and a far away location. I love hotel tonight starts going amazing deals, incredible hotels. Go to hotel tonight dot com or download the app right now. I were back over to the east. I we're gonna try to do this one podcast. It might end up being along one, but what do you want from us? The Eastern Conference the Celtics. So basically what happens is Vegas sets an over under for the winds for the year you can you the bed over under house that I liked to do this. What we're gonna do is we're gonna pick over owners for each team. We're no have between five and seven best bets. Overs are under that. We love. And in some cases, like with the Celtics here, there's been enough action on one side or the other that they skew the line. So the Celtics the over unders fifty, nine wins, but the money line of the the money on it is minus one thirty. So it's not an even bet if you bet the over, you're risking thirteen hundred dollars to win a thousand, if that makes sense. So when I say something like buying us one thirty minus one, twenty five, that means there's been action on the over. So here the Celtics fifty. Nine wins over under there were fifty five. Last year there minus one forty to win the division minus one twenty to win the conference. And I think you and I are aligned on this one as a best bet they went fifty five vice chair. They're getting a healthy kyri Hayward's back whether he can be even eighty percent of the guy. He was two years ago where to find out he's the big x factor on this team Tatum year to Jalen Brown year three, Marcus smart n Rosiere off the bench Rozier in a little bit of a contract, semi contract ear, Marcus Morris, coming off the bench. They actually have a real bench. They have the best coach in the league or maybe top three at worst, I would have him as the best Cleveland is out of the division coli. Leonard is back back in the division, but LeBron Zada Cleveland. I cannot see a roadmap where this team doesn't win at least sixty three games. I was shocked at this number was under sixty. I'm removing on my Celtic phantom. I actually. You think this has a chance to be a really great regular season team, whether this will translate to the playoffs. I don't know, but the depth that they have the scoring options. They have the ability of the lineups that they can go big or small like three point shooters out there. They put multiple guards there, whatever you want, they can do it. They have the ability to have kyri rest for a night. Third game in four nights, Kerry. Take tonight off. We'll just play Terry Rozier forty minutes who by the way played was the starting guard of too little must've been the finals last year, just a lot of options and they're in a bad conference house, a making it a lack. I'm going over with our first one. I don't know how to avoid this. I mean, I, I don't mean to come on here in the in the in the usual ass kissing lackey kind of mode. I mean he did give me to podcasts. We've had lots of great meals together. You pay every time we're together. I just can't come up with an argument against the Celtics. I absolutely love the over. I can't believe the number wasn't like sixty two, but don't get it in and just to give people, you know something to really think about fifty. Nine is four more games than they won last year yet and they have they're, they're the only weakness on the team was their their offense. They were a middle of the road offense and and the two guys coming back are outstanding across the board in every kind of offense of category that you want. The thing that is so compelling to me, the Celtics fifty nine and fourteen over the last two seasons against teams under five hundred don't lose too bad teams. There are a bunch of bad teams in the east. The sixty wins feels delightful. I am banging the over. I am joining you in a lock. It reminds me and I, you know, the warriors in fifteen. Mean, I think from a talent standpoint, they're actually pretty close to that team. You know, the differences curry is gonna end up being one of the best twenty players ever twenty five, whatever it is. I, I don't think anyone in the Celtics roster has the ceiling that curry has as Alzheimer's, but that year when the when the warriors the first year when Kerr joined the team and they kind of took off and they really kind of found themselves and they kinda relish kicking ass night after night. The Celtics team has done that yet, and they haven't had that the depth that they have the fact that their bench is going to be really tough and be able to come in and actually swing games like they're gonna be they have, I would say the one of the top three starting fives in the league, and then you bring in the frigate Marcus's who are just easy guys. All right. We were stabbed. Great. The bummer for me is there's not a bet who's gonna finish with the league's best regular season record for somehow. There's a million frigging MBA props and that's not a bad. I don't understand it because I think part of what's going to motivate this them this year is trying to get home court because that's their one chance against the warriors in a finals. They have to get the home court and youth. The warriors will take nights off. They'll do what they always do. They'll talk about, oh man, this is such a grind and so tough. And you know, maybe they settle in the low sixty somewhere last year. They're only fifty eight it. It's been proven. You have the power with call up our POWs in Vegas and get get one of the books to to give up that prop the problem to be oppressed going to be. That's not going to do it for even money. It's gonna cost. You have to pay to get that. I still well, if you look at the over under for win totals the Celtics do not have the highest over under. I know Golden State does, but on state does Golden State is. Sixty three. So I think they would be the prohibitive favorite for homecourt advantage. But I, I think the Celtics have a real chance to get it. Let's move on. We talked about Celtics too much Toronto's at fifty five and a half there plus two fifty to win the Boston's division plus four hundred for the conference. Last year they went fifty nine games. They've flipped the Rosen into Kuwait Leonard. They have OG Nabi who a name on their ribbons, say healthy this year, two years off knee surgery. They're expecting good things from him and a new coach. They got rid of our boy doing Casey. I think out of all the teams in the east, there's two teams that I think have a chance to get to sixty and it's Boston and Toronto. I would not bet on this. I still don't know forgetting eighty two from coli. I'm gonna go with a very half ass tentative squeamish over pick, but it's t- too much in the air with. Why? For him play nine games last year, where do you have? I had the over as well. Good track record in Toronto. There is a culture of winning in Toronto one more than fifty five games in two of the past three seasons. They've hit the over on this Wintle thing. Each of the past seven straight years, and I really like the the core that they have. They demonstrated such a deep bench in such a in a an ability to we've guys in kind of seamlessly. This experiment this season will be a chemistry experiment. How does coli fit in? There's no reason that he cannot come in and immediately kick ass when he also has. He also has a the Toronto fans. They have really good fans. I like the Toronto fans unless LeBron is in there just there. So. I'm with you the tea. That's great. Unless LeBron's there, then the the t. dot gets very Blair. Witch goes just looks in the corner turns around and get super scared, but Kawai knowing that he's in a contract year, I think it's gonna be a love fest for that dude this year. And I actually think he'll like it. I think this is the most attention he's ever gonna get a wire. I already told you the the biggest factor for me. The one of the great intrigues of the season is the Drake affect on Kauai. Oh yeah. The find out whether or not quite likes to rat because Drake is going to invite them to the studio. We're gonna see so much Drake and Kawais spending time together since Araca, whatever is Drake's biggest challenge. She's been the most useful. The last decade, but this is a much bigger challenge. Exactly, right. I'm ready to unleash my imitation of coil laughing. Go ahead. Now it was worse than that. Okay, park another. It was the one of the weirdest sounds a human being is made slight over Vern Toronto. We both think they have a chance collide plus nine fifty eight MVP that was russillo favourite pick. There's a world in which he comes in kicks ass and they go sixty two and twenty. I don't see a world where they're in the low fifties or even the hi four days unless he gets injured and that's pasta, which is why we don't bet this. Where would be. Where would amusement it's an over. We're both in agreement that it's an over and we're both in agreement that it's not anything to lean into too heavily, and we haven't talked about this next one. We're still in the Atlantic Division. Philly fifty. Four wins is the over division is plus four hundred. I would not bet this one either. I think it's a stay away. I'm going under on this. I. There's some stuff that there's some red flags with Philly. I think pe- people are treating them like their contender. Meanwhile they won five playoff games. We haven't seen them be play, you know, for them to for them to go fifty five and twenty seven fifty eight and twenty four, whatever. They're going to need twenty one twenty two hundred minutes from Embiid. This year they're gonna play seventy plus games. They're going to need him to play thirty two thirty three thirty, four minutes a game. I'm not saying he can't. We just haven't seen it yet and this is year five for him. So that's a red flag. They lost ballot, Ellen Ilyasova their benches and his good. They're relying on faults in a way that makes me nervous. Their their attitude is let's throw him in. We think we might have something or I actually would bring him off the bench and ease them in as a six man. I don't like the spacing with faults and Simmons and Embiid all at the same time. And I think there's going to be some hiccups expectations. Embiid and Simmons as they both get more and more attention. Just some tiny, red flags, nothing major other than beat south, but enough to make me think low fifties, high forties for them. What do you have? That seems right to me until somebody can tell us how many games and be is gonna play the Sixers last year were forty and twenty two when Embiid played more than ten minutes in a game. Yeah, translates into a fifty to win pace. Wow, that makes sense to me that sixty two games that he plays in that fifty two wins that's under. Yeah. By the way, I'm surprised to hear that I would have guessed when he played that they would be on a pace that would be higher than this forty four fifty four win over under. So even when he played, they were under that pace, man, I'm starting to think this might be a lack. I gotta think about it more. I'm a, I'm not gonna lock because every one of the points you observe could go in the other direction. Embiid could play. Twenty one hundred minutes this season. He could of any player that that's prepared to make a leap. He could make a leap. I'm I like I'm gonna look at his odds. I haven't yet for MVP on. I have them for you right now. And by the way, I think this is a better bet than there are runner. He's fifteen two one win the MVP and there's a world in which he plays twenty five hundred minutes. He plays seventy seven games. He puts up some early Orlando shack season like he he has like twenty eight and twelve and Philly wins fifty eight games and he's the MVP. It's conceivable. I don't think it will happen, but it's about teen to one. I I like that. That's the way that I would bet this. You know, I, this is this number fifty. Four is a stay away to me. I you go under. All right. So you're alive and under under just miles on the bench. They replaced a Ilyasova embel- Anneli with Wilson Chandler and Mike Moscow, woah, yet. Next one is another upgrade. Next one's Brooklyn thirty. Two. Wins. And let's brush over this because I have no f- inclu with what's going on with them. They have some players they elect Sean marks doing a great job Sean marks. It's really rebuild, Brooklyn, give them hope. Again. It's like who's they? Why won't you trade care sliver for Jimmy Butler that really on the table? Can you do that? Well can kit. Here's the thing. Can I treat everyone in my team for Jimmy Butler and just have Jimmy Butler and free agents, but cap space. This is the first time since two thousand thirteen? Yes, thousand thirteen Bill Simmons. Yes, that the Brooklyn nets are going to enter the off season with their own, pick with their own first round pick that's either their pick or they don't have to pick swap it, which is how they lost the Tatum pick. Yeah, they have their own pick. So we're aligned. I I'm I'm going under because it makes sense for them to be not good this year. If they're ever going to say this, the be goods and their thanks Kenny Atkinson Hasim playing hard and none of these guys. Jared, Allen diangelo Russel, Spencer Dinwiddie. They're not going to like they're not. Rollovers. So this was interesting. I was looking at the make playoffs bets Cleveland out of the playoffs. There's a spot open for the eight seat and the candidates are like Charlotte who will get to Detroit, maybe even Cleveland without LeBron little tiny, junior Ewing theory moment or somebody has to be the, we can't enter the plastic seven teams. Brooklyn's playoff odds, Brooklyn to make the playoffs is only plus two eighty five. That tells me Vegas thinks there's a world in which they actually make a run for it and try to be eighteen. I think that'd be ludicrous that that's just the terrible move. Just bottom out for one more year. Have your cap space go nuts. So let's go slight under on this, but I don't feel good about it. Sure, agreed. Next one is the Knicks I've no feel for this when either twenty nine and a half over is the number plus one fifteen. If you go over, that means everyone's bang in the under on this. They are plus six fifty to make the playoffs. I would guess we won't see Porzingis if he's not ready until January February and they decide they wanna tank very excited to watch Kevin Knox. This year I got. I gotta say I was shocked by how high this over was. Kind of threw me off. I would have assumed it was twenty five twenty six. They're basically the Knicks Mike o. thirty and fifty two. If is Dale? I don't know what. What? What are you confused by? Well, I in twenty nine games. Last season singer is out until February and maybe the whole year games against the raptors, the Celtics and the Sixers. That's their division. Yeah, it's be terrible and they should be terrible. Deficits sense. What about Fidel you're not worried about him trying to win games. Who's he gonna win with Tim Hardaway junior. Right? We're going to see a ton of Mitchell Robinson and Kevin Knox which makes all the sense in the world. They're very best move is to lose as many games as possible to add one more enticing gift to the pot by way of the draft and then try and lower a free agent or two in I, I mean, I'm they either way all over. Go ahead. No, I'm sorry. I meant I didn't mean are up to I. The funny thing is I agree with you. I think the Knicks fans will be up for because now the Durant cared is being dangled and that's all they're focused on. So if you're ever gonna tank, this is the perfect year the between Kevin Knox who we all think is going to be good. I'm excited to watch him between him and the Durant possibility. Just the perfect gift for them. The tank take away who cared go away. So right. Here's my thought instead of buying out Joe came Noah or whatever staredown was going on right now. I'd bring him back and play him. Oh, you're out of shape and you have bad knees. As you're playing forty minutes today, let's run the student in the ground. He could help us tank washed up. Joking knows their biggest asset this year. That dude should be out there. Guess who else should be out there all time. Frankie Knittle Akina who is by all accounts. One of the worst offense, appoint cards. We've had maybe not Quinn Buckner bad, but kinda one, maybe Lindsey, hunter level. I would have him out there. I'll be running pick and rolls with Frankie Frankie nicotine and jokey Noah. That's my go-to play. Bring him these these names that you're saying in this rationale? I don't. I had this written down in bright red. Under it's all cats. It's an all caps under so terrible lack. That's a let a Joe house lock. All right. I can't. I don't know if that's a lack for me yet, but I'm gonna under as well. All right. Censure division. This is going to be locked for me. This is gonna be a pull my pants down and just pee in the air. I'm so excited luck. Like my eight year old kid. This is where Tom's bachelor party in succession right now. And I'm just so excited just so excited. No, because no. 'cause I met a girl and bub-bubba Tony's. It was at the soup of spilled so hot right now. Joe house just hot MU walkies over unders forty, eight wins. They won forty five. Last year with Forrest Gump is their coach. They traded Eric Bledsoe, they trade for blitz. Midway through the season, they fired Jason Kidd brought him Forrest Gump. They had Jabari Parker plan on one leg who was just furious the whole time that Yana said stolen the franchise from him. They played with a really slow pace, which Kevin O'Connor broke down perfectly in his piece about yada s and how you might make the leap. Everything, everything. Everything is pointing to the bucks making leap this year. Everything is pointed to a possible MVP season in for Jaanus which is why he's my favorite bed at five to one last year is twenty seven, ten and five. If they increase the pace all the sudden that might start to look like thirty twelve and six, which is MVP numbers. They added brick Lopez that are really liked. I don't know why the Lakers didn't sign him Ilyasova at least you know he can be a rotation guide be semi reliable and. I gotta be honest. I think this team could land in the mid fifties. Coach bud is a real coach that guy that guy won sixty games with the hawks. That is not a joke, not a lot of coaches of one sixty. I am making this a simply safe lock. What how my house is losses? I have sympathy. Yeah, they didn't even know. They know they're in this podcast simply say, how about that? We should have the simply safe. Lock of the of the sympathy onto is lack to is, is in win with two is win over. What do you have? I don't have anything to say, I'm joining you joining the lock. I think that Milwaukee is loaded for bear one interesting thing to me. I think you can guess though, get them around twenty two one. What are what are they. To to win the fifteen to one to win the conference. That's kind of interesting to me. Well, even more interested in that. Bucks now that they're less than fifty to one win the conference, but bucks. Where's a bucks? Worriers finals right now is twelve to one. Bucks Lakers. What do you think the odds are for that. A thousand to one now. All right. You're, I hate doing this with your sometimes. I mean, it's ridiculous bucket. Lakers is not going to be the finals. It's one forty to one. It's not going to be the finals hundred forty. We'll be thousand to one Jaanus versus LeBron completely unrealistic to you. Completely unrealistic. I can't overstate how unrealistic that is. We're going to get to LeBron in the second half of this podcast, and I just really hope he's taken notes. I really hope he is heard. I'm going to save it, but I really hope he's listening to the narrative of he's thrown away this year and he's in the west. It's over. I didn't who said that. He I saying it. Lack more Ocoee, lock forty, eight wins lock over next one and you in you're in for a lock to. I am. I joined you on that lock. Relax, relax, let teams and I have three locks. This is like what? It's like when we used to go to strip joints twenty years ago, you would just immediately get your locks out and then you just be ready to go home. If Indiana I know all my money was gone. Indiana forty, eight wins. I people are very excited about tyreek Evans for some reason. Oh, no, he is that that is the opener. Did you watch any last night. I watched the second game. I didn't see a lot of the first game. I think our own Mark Titus is the. Esteemed expert on whether or not a player is fat. So I'd like to get his input on that. That's great. I wish we Mahlum who is it? Who's the player? Tyreek Evans, oh, he looked fat. You look fat to me anyway. You Louis techs, Titus and see if we tell them we made him the fat expert. And we wanted to know if tire expat, if he thinks tyreek Evans's fat. All right. We'll get a live update from Titus on this. I, you know, there's some. There's some positive stats for him like his his scoring efficiency. The fact that his three point shooting is actually pretty not even sneaky. Good. It's been openly good and you know, watching that Indiana team, how broken they were last year and how easy was to just take out all depot, putting three guys on them, and there is no plan b again, all the reasons I just him and McDermott. I don't think that's enough of an upgrade. I think the east got better. I don't feel like they're better in less this whole miles Turner. I'm in great. Shape. I'm ready to be the side kick for old depot. That's the x factor. That's why I don't feel that strongly about it either way. Forty eight actually feels like the right number. I'm gonna go just a shade under just a hair, but I don't feel strongly about it. There also plus thirty to win the division I should mention as well. We finally have a disagreement grain taking the over. I think they're going to be five fifty win teams in the east this year as a direct result of there being five, extra gobble ex- extra God execrable execrable. It's like having Trump tried to try to pronounce anonymous five horrendous teams in the east right here. So I think they're going to be five fifty. One teams I have Indiana in their at at fifty wins. I think there are surprisingly deep. I like the Kyle o. Quinn signing. I think that one too. I like that. It is well, and you know, I have to just have an opinion on miles Turner, and I think that the commitment to getting himself healthy in the way that he did, I'll I'll go ahead and and be a glass half full kind of guy about him making a small leap because he regressed last year. Let's be honest that team won. You know, hover many forty eight games last season. Yeah, and and he was not like a huge part of it. It wasn't because he made a giant leap. It was all a victory depot. So nice for fifty games. I guess my question with him. I'm still not a hundred percent. Sure what he does and you've heard me say this on pods many times what I mean by that he does stuff is out there is getting points rebounds, but like what's his elite? What's his elite skill? What is this is one thing. So one thing that makes him special. He on paper looks great, but then you watch you watch that Cleveland series in and you can't really post them up. He's not this amazing above the rim all the time athlete. He's not an amazing rebounder. He's not an incredible defender. He's just kinda solid. So I so even if he's in the greatest shape of his life, I still I, I guess I need to see what that means because I'm not sure that's going to help him demand to be double teamed in the low post. You know, we got an update. Well, I'm not. I'm not going crazy on my selection. It's a small over from a smaller them around way more important than this. I have a small underway more important. Mark. Titus has an update is Tara, givens, fat. I say, no, I think he just got a fat face and his beard dozen, no favors. Wow. Okay, great. Real time analysis from Mark Titus. You can hear him on the wind shine podcast. Next one up to trait, new coach tame Van Gundy by the way the best trade of the year was staying Van Gundy going from Detroit ESPN. I like him on ESPN enjoyed having a mind yesterday. Great treaty speed, great trade it even as a bad contract. Yeah, he's good. I, that was a great. What if for me we it was almost me him. Magic Johnson and Michael wilbon that I year I was on countdown and then David Stern stepped in and basically blocked the higher this happened. People think like, I'm I mentioned Santa pod five times. I don't know what these sports Boggs do. Like what? What makes good content like go research this this one hundred percent happened. He was signed. He added deal stay. He's talked about this and stern was like, I don't want to van Gundy's and just squashed it. He ended it in Jalen up getting added to the show like nine days before I show. And I remember sending John wild hack, who is the quote, unquote person in charge of content of the is pin at the time. I use the codes very small, but I was like, man, are we going to have like a rehearsal is liquid me? Jalen Wilby magic. Are we going to rehearse and he emailed back. It's not how you start. It's how you finish. And I was thinking like, I don't know that much about TV, but I'm pretty sure. Sure. It's how you start pretty sure. I impress fatter television, maybe a rehearsal help. Anyway. John wild heck is now an athletic director. So that's my ESPN story of the day Detroit thirty eight and a half wins over under. What do you think. Stake. They caught a buzz register of this up it. It started much lower than this, and for some reason there is it's all the way they had thirty nine wins last season. Yeah, I think they're right. Their sort of talent wise, not not a whole ton change. Their expected win total last year based on their point. Differential was forty one and they ended up at thirty nine. So both of those numbers are above thirty eight and a half. I'm gonna go slight over. I think they're the eighth playoff team in the east. It's just hard to to to point to anything on that team to get excited about. You mean Reggie Jackson Reggie. Bullock Stanley Johnson, Blake, Griffin, Andrey German does a gay excited deflect. Blake, Griffin's roast battle drove up their ads because he was so impressive battling Jeff Ross. That that was an incredible roast by the way, all props to play Crippen it was. It may be his singular best. He has a career after basketball. Yeah, and honestly might have been his his most impressive performance of the season? Yeah, at least three years I I'm going to go under. I don't feel good about it. I'm not betting on it, but. Okay. I'm not convinced by Griffin can play two games anymore. And once you remove him from that hypothetical depth chart. It's really mediocre team. It's it's an a five hundred team. I think it's worse mediocre. I also really don't see how German and Blake Griffin makes sense together on the same basketball team in two thousand nineteen. That's it. Certainly not where the league is heading, and I don't think they do. This is why Stayman gun is on television right now. Yeah, that's true. It's a great point with having said all of that. They only have to win the same number of games as last year and LeBron James is doesn't play in their conference anymore. Make play apps for them as minus one seventy five, which I was very surprised by. Yeah, that means Vegas thinks they are the eighth seed. I disagree. I'm gonna give you my see a little bit later. Next one is Cleveland. Cleveland won fifty games last year there over unders thirty one minus one twenty five, which means we've had a lot of action on the over there plus four fifty to make the playoffs. I gotta say like if you at gunpoint the charter Cleveland, I actually would probably pick Cleveland because of the infrastructure have not been context than have watched him a couple times in the preseason. He seems like a year away to your way to me and I know they're going to have to play him. That's that's the main reason I was thinking about the the under on this, but I'm not going to go under I I actually think they're in the mid thirties, and this number seems too low to me. They have a lot of guys. They've lot of veterans to know to play basketball, Kevin, love. Who is now going to get a lot of crunch time. Obviously, I think he's a really good offense of player. I actually thought one of their mistakes. The last couple years was not giving him more crunch time opportunities, Tristan Thompson, JR, Korver all these guys. We watched on the finals. These are all professionals at least. I don't know I'd for for whatever reason I'm leaning over. What do you think has no with good reason? The reason you just mentioned that's a good reason to lean over. I'm taking the over as well. I think it's just, you know, when you have that many guys that have been professional basketball players that have been to the finals consecutive years, yet the way that Kevin love and Tristan Thompson, JR Smith and Kyle Korver have those guys just, you know, know how to win basketball games. They're not going to be cowed by Eddie situation if they're healthy and George hill is a nice, you know, professional basketball, he's another wasn't yes, excite you. He, he was a afraid to win a game, and he cost us an interesting. NG NBA finals last year with that, missed free, throw chair. But you know, for the purposes of getting to thirty two wins, that's a competent basketball team. So. Around, but it's I it was plus three sixty for them to make the playoffs. I here's what here's what change my mind in them a little bit. They had the Celtics Cavs game. Preseason. I watched it because I love the Celtics team more than just about anything and the Cavs had like a little swagger to them. I'm surprised a lead to the JR Smith, Marcus smart altercation which was replayed and the sand social, but made me think like that. I think the cat, I think this is kind of a proud Cavs team, right? They made the finals four straight years. Everyone is completely written them off. And meanwhile, you know, they have a bunch of dudes on the team who are expensive for a reason. At some point, somebody thought they were competent Kevin love. I still feel like is like the twenty seventh best part in the league. He's in the top thirty. He's probably closer to the bottom of top thirty, but I, it's weird to me that they, they are eight wins lower than Detroit because I'm not sure there's a difference from talent standpoint. At least we know with Cleveland, they have some pride and some chemistry. So I'm going over on. That's not a lock from you though. Last. With you. Last one is the bulls, twenty nine f wins. Plus four fifty to make the playoffs for them minus one, twenty five for the over which means people are banging the over. Wow, I think this team is going to be a defensive shit show. It's my expert opinion the, I it, it's a proven fact. Yeah, I'm not really going on a limb, but if if somebody's scores seventy this year, this would be my number one candidate to be the the other team in the game that were somebody's court seventy. I would lock. I would like Chicago is a minus three hundred favourite for who who is going to give up a seventy point game to an MBA player. I would say Chicago is the minus three hundred favorite. They were in the bottom five last year in both offense and defense. Other than that, not bad. Yeah, they're the division that we just went through kind of murderer's row. Yeah. If both, Indiana and Milwaukee are around that fifty game win in Detroit is around forty. We think Cleveland's gonna be mid thirties as well. I don't know if I use the word murderer's row. I just think you know Milwaukee in Indiana. I'm just saying I wouldn't use murderers row. Okay. Cleveland in the traitor in that division come on as good point. All right, fair enough. Fair enough. Has a little bit of an overstatement, exciting, your exuberant? Well, I just think that that they're the right move for them is to lose. It doesn't make any sense for them to go win. They need to get a great asset to to to join. They have a real nice young core. I said, bad things last year about, is it a real nice around he or is it a real nice core. Is it could have a young a, a decent nice core because I think will Carter junior is going to be good though. I can't marketing could be good if you add one more piece. One of these do kids to those two guys. Now you have a nice young core. I don't. I'm out on on Levin. I'm out on done. Well, you can't be out on them because they bar just paid the Wien. They paid them like twenty million a year, either making twenty to paint my Jabbari like forty million combined. That's that. Why are they doing that? Why are you doing that? Chicago, I, I love window Carter junior, and I think he will be. I think he's gonna start. I think he's going to be heard of heard from I love this draft. I think it's going to be a really memorable draft fifteen years from now and and he's one of my favorite guys in it. And he's also a grown man already, which is amazing. He's just a big dude. He did a little ringer thing with us, but one of those guys who's big already, but you still know he's going to add twenty five pounds of muscle of next couple of years. I just liked that guy. I think he's a homerun pick for them, but there I just don't like the team. They put together and I think the east is better than people realize so I'm going under. I wouldn't bet on it only really locks on the for first Kogyo. Oh, coming up. We're going to talk about your favorite team, the wizards of Washington. But first, hey, we have a, we have a sponsor. This is you'll be excited for this own house. I wanna talk, but the action network which is run by a male friend, Chad millman so they have a free idea. Yeah. Chad moments bent on this, not this pod, but the other part. So that only do I love Chad. I subscribe to the action that works so money. If if I'd known that this was a thing I wouldn't have paid for it, I would have got it for free chat compass. What are you doing? So the action network has a free app. You sign up, you can put your bets and they can track the bets. They also have really good win probability for NBA. It's good. It's kind of good to have everything track like on the Bs. Pakistan went one and three last week. I, I'm five hundred for the season. I don't know the exact number because I don't track it. I should should've put him on the action network. Download the free app. You can follow my picks every week. I'm putting him in this week. I did a action, our dot com slash Bill. And you know what we should put in there. What these over under does. Why put I have three NFL picks this week? I think I had. I have Jacksonville minus three Dallas. I think Dallas, thanks the Clapper's going to get fired, and I don't think their offense scored twenty points against Jacksonville and Bortles will not be at that bad too. So I like that one. I like the bears minus three in Miami Amal in on this bears team against bad or mediocre offenses. I think their defenses can win single Hanley and then I have a parlay that's just about, I'm sorry. I've that the bears in a parlay with the Rams that's just about even odds. The bears are minus two hundred the Rams or like minus three eighty, but the view in Denver. But if you add them together, it's perfect. And then the third one I have straight up Cincinnati, minus two at home against Pittsburgh. What do you think of those picks Joe house? I like three of the four. I'm not gonna tell you which one I don't like because I still have to make my picks. Would they who you can make the pitch for this is the podcast. Oh, this is the picks podcasts. Now just like prepared for NFL. I'm just asking what picks you liked. Oh, I, I really liked the the Bengals this week against a at home me to do you like my bears Rams teas are parlay, bears have to win a Miami Rams, have to win in Denver. That's it. Nothing else, no points. Nothing. Home dogs went four, no last week, which means you want the regression that's natural, come home dogs this season or fifteen and seven. Yeah, I have both those stats off always fifteen and seven after five weeks. I think that's right. So they oh, and they tend to end up just a little above five hundred. So a regression is coming. Yeah, that would be my concern is Miami at home as a frisky home dog potentially against the bears because Trubisky never trust risk. I don't trust your bears defense bed. That's it. So listen, go to action network dot com. Slash Bill. You can get all these ads. They have a really Good Friday calm that I like to about with all the ads and percentages and stuff in there. So there we go. All right. Back to the NBA bets. We're on the southeast. We're on a strike. How long have we gone Kyle? Like fifty minutes. We are fifty. Nine minutes. Oh man. This is gonna be like a tuna fire pod. All right. Listen, got get the people what they want, sometimes Washington, but like to order some food. Now we'll we'll get it up. We'll be fun. Forty five and a half wins for your wizards. Dwight Howard strong preseason. He's already seen to back specialists and I think I think he's getting wheeled around in one of those things like the little bicycle wheelchair things. So he'll be fine. John wall is he fat? Is he trying to hat? Fat is a little fat. What's John wall's deal? All right. Go ahead. I just wanted to share this this factored speaking on the action network. Yeah, Matt Moore did a lot of hard work. I'm going to give a shout out to Matt more of the action that work since we're pimping them. I've enjoyed his comprehensive overview of of win totals this season. He shares his factoid teams that Dwight Howard has been on have hit the under in seven of the past eight seasons. The ones season that that is team went over was the two thousand fifteen two thousand sixteen Houston Rockets. And the reason that they hit the over is because Dwight only played in half the games. He played in forty one games. That's my pathway to get to the over for my Washington almost bullets. The we arts. I like forty, six wins for them. Okay. I liked it. It's a, it's a. You know info at all. It's just I just like it because Dwight Howard regression, that's your. That's your logic regression. They won forty three games last year with with John wall missing half the games. I'm saying that right Howard, the Dwight Howard is the Dwight Bola virus. This is actually the year. He won't be the Dwight Bulloch virus dies at your lawn saying he he could be Dwight boulevards, but he can't. He can't af- infect the team if he's not playing and it's possibly won't be playing because he's already has a but injury the most white Howard in Washington almost bullets injury ever. Dwight Howard has an injured buttocks, forty five and a half the I. This was one of the toughest ones for me. Yeah, I still think Bradley Beal can get a little bit better with good reason. I still kinda like your team felt like they underachieve last year and then and the divisions not good, just not or Landau an Atlanta near division in Charlotte while I kinda like Charlotte. Stink, but that's good. What most hurts my feelings is that you read Matt Moore's over under peace and didn't come up with your own ideas and your own work. So you got to live with that. I just shared a nugget. I have nuggets over the plan, read other people's over. I'd like to come up with my own ideas. I do have my own ideas. I was prepared to pick the almost bullets on the over anyways. I'm not doing any glass half empty Bs with my own team. They haven't played a single game yet. John wall, this is the season. This is really a career defining season for him. He's either going to show up and be awesome and not be an undermine or sabotage her. He's going to to somehow through. I don't know what, what kind of aas? Boasts? Maybe he can go go to business meetings with Ted Leonsis and see what a leader looks like. He I, but this is it. He either has to show up and lead this team and make Dwight Howard and his other teammates better or not, and leave be traded. He must be traded if he's not gonna come in and and and if they start off slow, I think this trading re, we'll start turning. He needs to leave. This is a nice window into your psyche because I've known you for thirty years now and. There are a couple of girls. You just stayed with too long. And we will go have drinks. We talk about it and then like another six months would pass and now you're married, but now John wall has become that girlfriend. You're staying with two long. Each should move. You should break up mentally with John wall is my advice you just heard me say, so I'm, I'm ready. I finally talked myself into it. I'm going. I'm going under. All right. I just there other teams, other teams in the east. I like more feels like a forty four and thirty eight or forty five and thirty seven forty six feels ambitious for the team. They have. Next one is Miami. This is tough. Miami's forty two and a half. We have no idea if they're going to trade for they're gonna get Jimmy Butler for Josh Richardson in crap protected pick like obviously that's going to be worth five or six wins. I can't believe there's this much debate about Josh Richardson. If if I'm reading Miami and Minnesota's like, look, here's what we want. We want Josh Richardson. We want top five protected pack and bam. Outta bail. I'd be like, okay, done. Let's call it the leak. Really. I get Jimmy Butler. I'd have to give up anyone who's gonna make all star team. Okay, good. Let's call it in. I can't believe that Riley has gotten this done yet. Just pay just go. Got Jimmy Butler. I don't care if he's crazy. I think this is tips. I don't think it's Riley. So you think tips is just stringing him along, but doesn't actually want to trade for? Yes, that's exactly what I think thousand percent. 'cause Miami doesn't have that really creme de LA creme first round pick to offer that makes it, you know, just too good at offer to not take for Minnesota. Well, I like the over there for the division plus one eighty Washington's minus one sixty for the division. They're intriguing division pick to if you've just banking on that. This other thing is a catastrophe Indians of going there. I just like some of the guys on the team. I don't care if waiters island is on fire right now is there's petulance and. Just people throwing up all over the island and things are going bad. They I, I just like some of the guys and the only reason just find it hard to believe Spoelstra is going to go under five hundred, which is basically when this thing supposed to has no track record of having bad seasons here here the competing factors Miami, they, they win. They've only one forty one games or less three times in the past fifteen years. So that is the place with with the culture of winning. We talked about institutional winning culture of of winning institutional leadership. Miami has they don't neither individual players to be leaders because the franchise provides the leadership that the the guys need. The only thing that I think can come up with him. I'm on. I'm going to go over with you. I'm going to join you on the over because I think forty three winds is eminently reasonable. The one thing that can sabotage this is his son Whiteside because they can't just bench him and not have him play because he's. Satisfied and play, you know, four with fourteen guys, they they can't de. So here's my counter that we, I think I think Miami is poised for some sort of trade in. Obviously they felt the same way if they're trying to get you. But the last two weeks, it's a, it's a roster that is somewhere like a smidge over five hundred. But I think there's a lot of different ways they can improve it and they're just smart and they always strike when there's a chance to add somebody who's really good. They have different types of pieces that are good in trade, like Dragages somebody you can put in a trade to upgrade to a slightly better point guard. They have Justice Winslow who I think is entering his restricted free agency year. He's tradeable bam's tradeable, Josh Richardson, people like I ten million. He's really, he's trade about ten million. Seems like a really fair price for me for him. They have their pick, they can kind of move around. They don't have their picking two thousand twenty, but. Olympics contract is not awful. The only contract they have trader goes waiters. Yeah, he's hopeful in the thing is the salary caps. One hundred billion dollars, and there's only thirty good players in the league at some point, Kelly Atlantic for ten million dollars. It's actually not the worst thing in the world. So I I like the over. I think they can make their team better. Yeah. Yeah, you just talk me and I'm not going to suggest that either one of us make a lock on this, but you know what I did. I got up my highlighter pen using a yellow highlighter pen for all of these ones that were. I'm going to bet my own hard-earned cash. This is one because I a thousand percent subscribed to the idea that they're going to make a trade over the course season. There's some sort of day three for one, three for one, four for two potential. And then Keating remember at them. They can't make this team better with. They're, they're not in the two thousand nineteen free agent game because they've already spent all their money. So they're in the same situation. Houston is in with Butler. You add, but if you can figure out how to get Butler, it's really your only chance to be in that kind of free agent possible all star game. And I think they're gonna eventually. They're gonna strike for one of these guys. All right. So Charlotte. Charlotte's thirty five and a half minus one twenty five. So there's been some action on it. Plus one thirty to make the playoffs. Fifteen to one. To win the division. They have new coach, James Borrego got rid of Steve Clifford. Starting five Kemba, but team Kidd Gilchrist, the ageless Marvin Williams, the Ardy bowl, bald Cody Zeller coming off the bench, Jeremy lamb, Maliki monk, miles bridges, Frank Kaminsky biz MAC Biondo. I even liked Wayne baked and a little bit, and then the not ageless Tony Parker because I think he's. Oh, sh. Well, I, I can't do it. I like this team. I watched him in a preseason game miles bridges has a little like steel of the out of the top ten of all the guys after the top ten potential. You know, I feel about mach. I just think he had the year from hell. Last year. I am still a believer Kemba in a contract year potential to either flip him or do something. They're big guys are all serviceable. None of them are bad. Like, you know, beyond Biondo has his holes. I completely overpaid, but he's not awful on the right team. We've seen him succeed in certain situations. We've seen Cody Zeller succeed. Kaminski's not a train wreck. I'd like Nick pa- tomb. He's one of those zigzag guys is like one of those quarterbacks. You never know what to expect your year. I liked the fact that they changed their coach. I like the fact that the all star game is coming there in February it. And I like the fact that somebody in the east is gonna come. Out of nowhere. We saw last year with Indiana. It happens every effing year. There's one team like, whoa, whoa, wow, they're twenty two and twelve. That's crazy. I think it's gonna be Charlotte. I'm going over and I'm going lack thirty five and a half. How about that? Joe house? Wow. Yeah. Yeah. Well about what are you waiting house? Because I like to win. You need me. You being all all they have to do for you to win. Your bet is to do what they did. The previous two seasons, which is win thirty six games, which is why the over here costs one, twenty five. I'm paying it. Here's the thing they have guys. If you go through their whole rotation, they have a guy Kemba is at least somebody who can create his own shop for them and crunch time to have a bunch of guys who know who they are. You know, they even kid go crest who I? I'm still not. I'm not cutting him out yet. I still feel like he's going to have a moment. 'cause he's. Oh, good defensively, and he's good, and he's a good kid. He's not that old. He's still twenty four twenty five. I just I like the talent on this team. It's it's not guide that there's nobody who's overrated. There's nobody who got paid doesn't give shit even Scibelli beyond bows overpaid. Like, hey, think he's a good teammate. I just think he was in a bad situation in Orlando is a weird team, though. Point guard. I like this team. Well, I haven't nugget for you. Yeah, two nuggets the expected win total last season based on their point of rental. They should have won forty two games. Yeah, the one thirty six. But here's the nugget in the last two seasons. They've been in fifteen games decided by three points or fewer. Let me ask you a question yet. Fifteen games decided by three points or fewer. How many of those games do you think the Charlotte Hornets have won over the vaguely remember this stat? It's like two and thirteen. Something like that. Actually one in fourteen very good. Yeah. Yeah. So you made that I talk you into it. I'm not joining you on the lock. I am joining you on the over because as we observe the very beginning, all I have to do is when the exact same number of games as last year and you win and I'm gonna tell you another secret service. I'm betting they're division at fifty one the, I think it's a good bet. I think anyone can win this division. Not Orlando in Atlanta, but the other three fifteen to one fifteen. David off the plus one thirty. I'm not joining you on fifteen to one Justin back to my team lose money. Orlando is thirty. One wins thirty five to one to win the division plus four twenty five to make the playoffs. The good news. There's good news. They actually have they. They made to solid draft picks in a row. That's all. That's funny. I got a question. Do you know how long ago it was listen to this team that they had Aaron Gordon after all a depot, Tobias Harris, and Jerry still out on l. for Peyton. But he was on this team. They couldn't be patient with that team. That team was was that that was who they had two years ago, but we love though the depot and they've ruined him and everything you could possibly do wrong with with him and sucked the life out of him and then traded him for when you're Serge Ibaka morons. I'd like this team. I still think they're going to suck. I agree. I like I like Bomba. I like Jonathan Isaac. I like Aaron Gordon. There's no earthly scenario where you can play those three guys together. They had the worst point guards in basketball to me, it's like inexcusable to have bad point, guards two thousand eighteen. There's a million point guards like Atlanta was you try and trade Dennis Schroder and where the fuck was Orlando and that I so thirty one to me. I think the east again is a little better than people think. And this is almost a lock for me. I need to think about a little more, but definitely definitely definitely under for me, I'm with. I'm joining you on the under. I don't know y- they'll need a shadow lightning to fr from the sky, poor Kevin Clark. They need now feel bad for him. They need some kind of extra terrestrial event to come, visit them and create the opportunity for them to to to change the narrative there, but that they're, they're just. Thirty wind team stare me in the face. I'm I'm joining you on the under. I'm not giving them as a lock. I failed twenty five fifty seven. My next one is a lack. The Atlanta Hawks twenty three and a half wins is the over. It's even so there's been a little action on the under. If you think they can make the playoffs, you can win eighteen hundred on a one under one hundred dollar bet. So I buy rice would be not to do that. Here's the case other than the fact that. They're going to be actively and aggressively in-intentionally intentionally terrible. They don't have a coach who's trying to f- up their draft position like they did last year with coach bud who wanna know part of a tanking situation. Everyone's on the same page. Now in this organization in, here's what they want. They want trae young to play a lot of minutes, and they wanna lose games and they wanna make the ladder again and get a top five pick and hope that Dallas does the same. And now they have trae young and to top seven picks or whatever it is. That's what they want. The agenda is very clear. Twenty three and a half. All they have to do is go twenty three and fifty nine or worse, and I'm in and I also think they can lock down the number one pick or the ping pong balls. We take about twenty and sixty two. I don't think anyone in the west is gonna get to sixty two losses. This is a lack for me. Joe house I'm lacking Elena under. I've been sitting patiently to to to join you here with an unbridled, enthusiasm and exuberance. Interesting bet to me is what's trae Young's rookie of the year. Odds. What would that? Well on the cousins, how pod we'll talk about it. Oh, against all laws. We're going to talk about rookie of the year. Trai. So, yeah, let's let's keep going. We have too many teams. We have to get to the west. It's only been four hours newsflash everybody Atlanta's gonna suck. They're going to be really bad, but the enders so I have from my lacks Atlanta under twenty three and a half in these Milwaukee forty. It wins over in Boston. Fifty, nine wins over you had those three, but you also had one more. What was your fourth one? Toronto. The Knicks are the Knicks the Knicks under twenty nine half and you're hoping for a joking, Noah slash Franken, Italy, elite Italy, Kinko. See like too much to ask for, yeah, you're hoping for a little pick and roll action with them. Quick break to talk about our friends at propercloth, finding address shirt that fits is nearly impossible. Something is always off the collar of the sleeves. Thankfully, ordering a custom fit shirt has never been easier with proper cloth. You can easily create a custom shirt size in seconds by answering ten simple questions on propercloth dot com. Choose from over twenty collar styles, ten cuff styles, five hundred fabric styles from classic to business too casual, completely customize your shirt. Get the style you want. They work with the best fabric producers from around the world. They only buy fabric that meets their high quality expectations. Each one of their shirts goes through extensive quality control testing. So you're getting the absolute best quality and craftsmanship, best of all proper cloth guarantees a perfect fit. Many of somehow your shirt doesn't fit perfectly. They will remake it for free is a risk free process. It's the future shirts shirts made comp-. -pletely custom for you. Starting at just eighty dollars. Look stop wearing shirts that don't fit. Just stop. Start looking your best with a custom fitted shirt. Good or proper cloth dot com slash Simmons today. And if you enter give code Simmons, you save twenty dollars on your first shirt. Once again, propercloth dot com. Slash Simmons gift code Simmons Western Conference on the southwest division. I Houston fifty six and a half wins. They went sixty five last year. This is a slap in the face. This is this is a big bottle of water just being thrown in the face Darrow. Maury, who I think is at the over pretty much every year this decade except for maybe one year every year. Now he's in the classic. Nobody believes in a situation. There's some real Jimmy Butler trade potential. And yet it kind of seems like the right win total for me. Fifty six and a half seems fair, and I don't know what to do. I'm going to follow your lead on this one, Joe house. It's a slight over to me just because you're talking about an eight gray, an eight game decline, which seems like the right number for the direction. They went defensively the the losses of Reza and Ma MU ta I and I just, I don't know enough. I'll have to find Daryl in a quiet moment when I can pick his brain and understand sort of the cap dynamics in the contract stuff, but defensively he was so great on the perimeter last year and they are they. They made the decision that they couldn't afford to keep him. They're the real loss to me for the rockets. And the reason that that fifty seven feels like the right. Number the real losses is how do you say Jeff? Dezelic Dezelic? Sure. The defense coordinator retired. Yeah. And you know that that's that's the the loss of those two human beings plus the guy that they entrusted with, they were pretty damned good defensive efficiency wise last season. Now they, they were really able to compensate for what harden, because harden to fifty fifty guy only only half of the times down the court is he gonna actually play any defense, but they were able to compensate for that. Yeah, the the, the reason to go under fifty six and a half would be a distrust and mistrust of Chris, Paul's health. That would be the reason to go under, but I like them for a slight over. I like them for the over as well. And as you were talking, I remembered how good pawn heart and where together and the regular season when they were just both out there and the infrastructure. You were talking about the Spurs infrastructure and we're about to get to them. I actually think Houston is more of an infrastructure right now just because they have a specific style, they know what they're doing. The really good at it. Harden is though a five guy in his prime. And I would just be surprised if they. I, I don't think they'll win sixty five. I think they're going to drop off, but to me it feels like a drop off to fifty eight and twenty four type range. You know, it's tough. It's tough to lose ten wins in a season. That's just a lot. All right. San Antonio. It was forty five and a half wins just a few short days ago. And then Murray went down and it dropped two and a half wins to forty three, which is. Easily by far? No question about it. The lowest number we've been doing this over under pod for, I don't know, nine years, ten years. We're doing this shit when people were were terrified. Again, bling kudos to us. Forty, three wins see. The NBA. You can go on NBA dot com and play an over under game. Yeah, we speak and relatives an artist shit. Yeah, give us world sees. So what do you have house? You still like the over. Don't you. I so the the, the thing is the over still has them outside of the play offs. And I think as much as it hurts my feelings to say this, I think they're going to miss the playoffs, but they won forty seven games last year with quietly playing nine. And you know how, how, how big a off between Murray, what you lost by by Murray's, the gains he made last season and Derek Whyte who showed a little bit of signs. Couple signs still have all those. Those veterans with pride. This is palca sols- last stand. This is Rudy gays. Last stand. They wanna prove this is Marta rose and is going to try and burn the Western Conference down out of anger for being separated from his best friend and from being separated from the t. dot and be and and really losing all that studio time with Drake and Bella Nelly. Is is you know, interesting right. They're veterans and they have in a culture of winning. I only to take a slight over for them. I don't like their team. I understand. I think you need point guards in today's NBA is one of my expert opinions go out on a limb there. Point guards now are actually even worse than Orlando. There's just a lot of Patty mills, Dirk, wait, it's a lot of Patty mills anyway. I'm sure they're going to get creative, but the Rosen and Aldridge as my two best guys scares me from just a kind of attitude standpoint, those those are two guys who wear their hearts on their sleeves and have kind of emotional ups and downs, and a bunch of different ways. And then you've got Rudy gay and Casale is kinda. He's a little weird. And I, I think the. The vibe on this team's gonna be strange, it's it's, it's the team. They put together. These personalities does not make a lot of sense to me. It's it's like an enigmatic kind of quiet team China rub people. What are they thinking you? Yeah, but but since when has personality on the Spurs mattered, why just think they, you know, Ginobili and Parker, these respected vets who cared themselves a lot of swagger and fire and kind of police the ship. And when Kawais is acting like an ask, who were the two guys who spoke out against him? Jacobin been Parker. Those guys are now gone. I don't know who the leader of this team is. I think it's a lot to ask from Popovich at this point. He seems like he's on, you know, the finish line a little bit here and I gotta be honest. I'd be more surprised if they were better than I thought in one fifty games then where I think this season Mike. Go is they might just be bad. They might like miss the playoffs and get like the seventh pick in the draft. I think that's more realistic than them winning fifty games. So I'm going slate slate slate slate under a really tough conference. So you're saying that's forty. Two wins you'd like there make the playoffs. Five days ago is minus two hundred to make it. It's got a drop now. I think they go forty three and thirty nine forty to forty. I just I like other teams in the division a little bit more. I really do what was what was the line wasn't at forty. Three is forty three. So I I think they push go right under. Okay. Of course you're right under is what you're taking it. I'm gonna just gonna. Take forty four out of respect. That's it. It's a respect. Forty, four. I just I like eight or nine teams more than their team is where I've landed. And I really, I really wonder about the Rosen this year, you know, and he's been really open about not to get too serious for a second, but you know that he's he's battled depression, all this stuff, and I really worry about this trade in and how it might affect him just as somebody that I like him. I don't know. I don't know what to expect from him this year. I think he was really, really, really traumatized by that trade in a way that I can't remember a while. Right. He was really like, can you remember an athlete, getting traded like that? Who took it harder? No, and Akina love Toronto. Toronto left him and I feel like he's devastated. I don't. Now. He's on this Saint ruining Jewish, and I don't know if he's his heart's going to be the right place. There was one athlete who comes to mind who got stabbed right in the back with giant knives in his name is Isaiah Thomas well, but he was hurt. He deserved better. Yeah. I just you deserve better. I'm, I'm watching this San Antonio thing. I the vibe on that team is weird and guys who've either been traded or thought, earning traded or guys, who are you? Sure you like me or people in the end of their careers. It's just weird. Weird Team, New Orleans, forty five and a half. This is another one this kid. This is could wild swings here that I could see them winning fifty games. I could see Davis being traded in February. I can't get past the fact that three of their four best guys are guys that I don't think you can play in crunch time together. Miratec, Anthony Davis, and Jewish Randall. I like all of those guys. I don't see a world in where they're playing in the last five minutes of a game. Like imagine they're playing the Celtics who guards Jason Tatum holidays been great. I am going over. Purely isn't Anthony Davis pick. That's it. That's interesting. I think he's so good. That would say there are five hundred team. I think he's worth five more winds just because he's that good, and that gets them the forty seven and thirty. Five holiday has been great. I think they're going to really miss Rhonda. There's no question, but I just can't see Davis being on a shit team is too good. He's too talented. So the the over under to win the over your, they have to win forty six games. They won forty eight last season. I personally think the downgrade from Rondo Amboseli. 'cause re recall boogie set the league on fire through the first two months. Last season. He was a legit. MVP candidate is not a preposterous to talk about what he was doing night in night out and he really instilled in them. You know that there was a very interesting experiment of Davis boogie together and he came out so hot. So. Oh, on fire that I really it. You know, it was a the boogie reclamation project was fully underway and we were all on board for it. And then he, he tore his damn achilles. I'm gonna take the under because that's just three games for, you know, less than what they won last year. I'm with you on Anthony Davis, and he did just have, I think back to back seasons where he played seventy games or more tired of hearing the fragile thing. He got rid of that last year. You know, here's another way to look at it. Our eight playoff teams last year were Houston goes day Portland, Oklahoma, Utah, New Orleans, San Antonio, Minnesota. I think Denver is gonna make the playoffs. And I think the Lakers are gonna make the playoffs this year. So we have to create two spots. And the question is which teams do you feel the best about falling out of the top eight. And for me, it saying Tonio, Minnesota. So and I, I have them way ahead of picking against Anthony Davis, and I have them had Portland who people are weirdly down on this year. So if New Orleans is going to make the playoffs. That in my mind, that means, you know, forty, six, forty, seven forty, eight wins somewhere in there. So I feel good about that. So we're splitting it can still make the playoffs of forty five wins in the west, but maybe I'm wrong about that. Well, it's good that we disagree sometimes on these last year we disagreed. I think you did better than I did on the disagreements. I don't remember that. I, I did. We get the stats ever somebody. Some weird reader sent me the stats. You did slightly better the Matt even really wanna talk about it because you did better than me and hurt my feelings. Dallas kicked my ass the two previous years. So, yeah, thank you reader who had whoever sent that in Dallas, thirty five wins. Really wanna go over on this. I like the guys on this team. You know, I love Donncha ch- Dennis Smith year two will be interesting. I'm still not one hundred percent sold on him, but it'll be fun. I liked the fact that they're gonna play him off the ball and play multiple point guards and do others. Third slashed year, the Android Jordan's in there. There were signs of deterioration with him last year. I'm not one hundred percent sold on that. Most importantly, heraldic Bob's there and this is it. And I am going over our friend who Alibaba parabas vulgarities, longtime gambler. He's been on this podcast multiple times, got a job running analytics for the Mavericks. I think that's where seven wins. I'm don't over for TAOs thirty five and I'm making it a luck. I got you, Bob, Utah to waste Bob lock. You beat me to the punch. You stole the enthusiasm. I love it so much. I'm right there with you the h. Bob lock is in effect. I think it it. It's slightly under. Dell's what the what that dude brings to the table. Hong him a gambler. It's true that he's a gambler thank God. It's true that he made millions of dollars gambling on basketball. But what he really is is a savant, an analytics of mine. He had basketball advanced analytics that he was running off his own platform, ten years ago, fifteen years ago as a simple way to try and create an advantage for himself. This man, I never ever ever betting against that dude. This is an overage Bob lock. I also think Dallas is interesting thirty. One wins last asking him to win five more games. And I think Donncha which is going to be super fun to watch this over and it's an h. Bob block that Donncha and they had a Andre, their centers were mess. Last year. What I love about Donncha, which I love a lot of things about it, but he's going to be able to play a whole bunch of different positions for them. It doesn't necessarily need the bodice succeed and Rick Carlisle latte to love. I think. Make playoffs for them as plus six hundred starring that out there. Where it might might be worth a flier h h flyer pushed six hundred. Congratulations row, Bob, we're going to miss you on the pod. I'm gonna miss texting. You about gambling and NBA staff. You're not allowed to text about anything. I sent him one text that was on the line. It's like, I can't talk about this stuff anymore. It's like being friends with somebody who's in the mafia who's now just running an ice cream shop. I we respected. We're rooting for you. Good luck. Unbelievable Memphis. Thirty. Four wins. I'm going under the over is minus one thirty. So there's actually been some action. I get it. Jaren Jackson is going to be really good. No question Kosong Conley. Maybe they're healthy Chanelet Parsons rumors. He might be healthy again. It. I see it. I just I. I think it goes the other way. I think this is if Kosovska con they're healthy trade him. Get their asses out of their way. What did you do in Memphis? You're not. You're not winning. You're not winning anything. This should be. If those guys aren't healthy, they're gonna suck. And if they are healthy trade, their asses and gets a picks, this is another team with a beloved. You know, friend of the pod John Hollander we love Hollinger. I do. I like him. Now he's a nice guy. I think he's battery though. You would think that he would of all people just based on the all of the the, the persuasive writing he'd done before. Taking this job for Memphis, be prepared to pull the plug on veterans when you can get you. So it must be the case that they just have not had trade offers that have knocked your socks, all those guys. They make crazy money that goes back to my Miami thing like this is how Miami makes the next step as they roll the dice with one of these with a Kosov I'm Lee is is a point guard that should be available to every team in the league. Unfortunately makes thirty million a year I'm going going under because I think the conference is too tough, and there's going to be three shady teams in this conference. It's the law of averages. It happens every year. And even if she means you went twenty nine and fifty three or thirty fifty, whatever we still need a bottom. Who are the teams on the bottom in this division, right? We. It's the candidates are Dallas Memphis, Portland, Minnesota, the clippers Phoenix, Sacramento. Now you could say, Phoenix and Sacramento. I actually like Phoenix's roster more than Minnesota more than a Memphis roster. There's going to be three bad teams. I think Memphis is one of the three bad ones. I'm not going over. All right. Great. Let's disagree. Yeah, we just just suck up Chris Vernon some more. Northern. North west. Utah. Forty, nine and a half. I'm getting my red pen you I'm this is this is one of my favorite bets that are available now take the lead. We've Utah four nine half minus one thirty. Five to bet the over. Yeah, latte of buzz over. Yeah. Is to thirty five and I would bet the over. There's no price on that willing to pay for the over forty nine and a half for Utah. I ate there so good. I think they're the third best team in the western in the higher Western Conference the at forty eight wins last year. The point they had the point differential though of a fifty three win team. And I think the sky is the limit. This is the season Donovan Mitchell starts to get mentioned. He's going to be a top five MVP candidate this season because Utah's gonna zip your it and three or fifty four fifty five games if they get go bear healthy for an entire season, and Ricky is out there deal in the way that he's been dealing. I- this team is so good. They're so good defensively, you, I, I watched them alive. I went and saw the almost bullets play Utah. They just could not figure out how to get open shots against Utah. If they're very well coached, they're very disciplined, tons of talent. And this is a Joe house l. o. c. k. lack great case. I'm going slight slight slight over not a lack, and I do think there's red flag signs. Like what. And they Mitchell wants to be a superstar. I don't necessarily know if that's the best thing for him. Now, if you think Mitchell is year to Dwayne, Wade, that's great for them. If the concern is he becomes the, I got this guy, don't you guys realize who I am Donovan Mitchell that were as a little go bears, health worries. Me a little Rubio always finds a way to get injured. They didn't really add anybody. The west got better from top heavy standpoint, and I assume always a little dubious of the teams every year. There's one team that really played while the last like eight, nine weeks of the season and put up some crazy record and where the, whoa, what about that team? And then I just think that every year there's a team that does that and I don't necessarily know if it translates to them being contender the next year member. Miami did it two years ago. Sometimes teams just peak at at the right time and take advantage of injuries to other teams at the schedule, people being tired, whatever it kicked Oklahoma cities. And I get it. I get it. I see. I see all of it. I'm just pointing out little tiny, red flags. That's why I'm not doing a lack, but I'm with you. I'm going over. Okay. You're on the over. I'm that's a lock over for me. Speaking of lax. My bookie is a place that takes wagers from people and you can, oh, potentially bet on on things. If you're interested feel like kinda things kinda guy likes to bed a little win latte. They give you chance to create a big parlay, pick three teams to win. If you had all three, you'll turn one hundred into six hundred, and there's so much to bet on playoff baseball, but eighteen parleys. Yeah, you hear me on this. This pod cousin south today, they have hockey baseball, whatever you want. I recommend these guys. I trust them the bene- business for years to get great online reviews. Their mobile site is easy to use. You can even check to see if they have some of these MBA bets were talking about or some of the football bets, whatever you want. If you're on the sidelines, now's the time to get in the game my book, you will still match your first deposit dollar for dollar, but now you gotta join because they'll be pulling that offer soon. Logging a mybookie right now. W money use promo code Bill Simmons in the match your first deposit. One hundred percent that is promo code Bill Simmons. Oklahoma City is also in this division. Over under forty eight and a half make the playoffs minus one thousand division plus one eighty five. Utah's post one seventy five to win this division. Roberston Roberson Bergerson Roberson is out for the year or at least out for a couple more months, but it does not look. It. They added Dennis Schroder. They are Paul George back, there are friends, Stephen Adams who saw always hungry, only person's hungrier than Joe has. There's pieces here. They got rid of Carmelo that might help. And yet forty eight and a half just seems like the perfect over under for them. I don't know what to do. Talk me into one way or the other. I'm taking the under. I think that this leg issue with Russell Westbrook that surfaced recently, that's gonna have him missing some games at the beginning of the season is gonna turn into something more of a lingering deal this. I- this looks to me like it's going to be Paul George team take to to carry them wherever they're going to go this season. I don't like that. I don't like Paul, George Dennis Schreuder team. You know what that is. That's a team in the east that wins like, you know, that's like a Charlotte kind of team that's like thirty eight thirty nine when team that's you know, fighting for the the last playoff spot. I am disappointed that Robertson's hurt and I'm disappointed what about Ryerson. He started to rub Robertson's heard as well as well. That does Everson center hurt Roberson Roberson and Westbrook because you know, I wanna see this vision that Oklahoma City purports to have. I'll never get over. You know there. I have said it many times. I understand them pushing west Russell Westbrook to win the MVP two years ago yet. And they went all in as a franchise tip to produce that result. And then the MVP of the league for team that didn't win fifty games. So an aberration over the last thirty years went and one one playoff game, and they to their great credit imagined. A team pulled together a team with free agents that they had no business dragging in there. The Paul, George acquisition was absolutely terrific, and it was definitely worth it for them to try with mellow and that should have been something that we're cost than it did. We lost money on that. We lost money on the MVP thing. All we lost money on their. Yeah, we lost over well. Then Carmelo is is bad. So you I'm with you on the leg thing. It's weird that he gets this procedure done every year now it seems like, and does it seem like a like a? It's like, I'll he'll be fine. All right. At some point he plays so hard and he's putting a lot of miles on himself year after year that I do worry long-term. What's that gonna look like? It's almost like a running back. You know, we look up and one year Jamaal Charles is getting signed by Jacksonville to the practice credit like Jamaal, Charles. I was awesome for years ago. I gotta tell you speaking MVP south. You know, the ringer MVP is who's that. You don't know who the MVP the rigorous. I mean, there's candidates who is it? It's Kelly. She's brought me Crema, cauliflower soup. She really is the ringer MVP you. I'm having Crema. Collie flower soup. Is that talk to you? I know you're hungry. So I just wanted to plant that in your brain because I want to beat you in the over unders. I want your brain not to work as well. I have a anything. Yeah. Well, that's your fault, your dumbest. I have a Oklahoma City. I have the under. I do not think it's a lack. It feels right around the right thing. They're the division is it's the vision is Utah, Oklahoma City, Denver Portland, Minnesota. Then they also have the, they have to deal with the teams and the other divisions. And I just think it's gonna be really hard to get fifty leads. You really have to have a good team this year to be in the fifties. So slight under for me. I'm intrigued by the Schroeder thing though. I, I'm a fan of his. I think he's good at these guy, low moxie and they're always talking about it is difficult to coach. I seems like a pain in the ass. Well, he's on a shady team he wanted. I don't know. I wanna see him on this team. I guess I'm interested in seeing him on this team. He's pretty underwhelming and Atlanta. I mean, I saw him because Washington saw it land in the first round the playoffs. Yeah. And he, he was not up to the up to the moment just think he could be the Reggie Jackson type for them who in a playoffs because he could win one game. Okay. He had hot for one o'clock. I. Are you down with my conspiracy theory that Adam silver told the Lakers to stay away from Paul George. See Bill feels really strongly about this. Why he went on Jalen and Jacoby show last week and talked about this. And what did he tell you? What did he say? He said Adam silver called the Lakers and call Paul. George said Paul, George won't be signing with the Lakers. You're not allowed to approach him for Dale. And if you do, there's going to be some major tampering stuff, and you'll all be the old David Stern to David Stern, David Stern them, and in late June, Paul jerseys, like I'm gonna go re-signed with. Okay. Say it looks great a stay here. That's the conspiracy Bill. Thanks. I don't think that conspiracy build this Denver, forty, seven and a half. This is a team. Danny Chow. The always hungry Dany Chow is a fan of. Plus four hundred win the division forty seven after the over under Paul Millsap back Jamal Murray year-older the basically kept their team together, which was which was a good thing. People like this team a little bit another year. The joker. I'm going, I'm going slide over. I don't see how they're not to wins better. They went forty seven last year. I think they won forty six last year. In fact, I know they won forty six hundred. You say, because on the very last game of the season I had with the cousin, Sal. As I we together made appearance on against all odds and gave out an eight team, make the playoffs parlay. And you know who after four me, Denver the Denver Nuggets losing that game to Minnesota. The last game of the season. They lose games too bad teams, ten losses last year, two teams that finish under five hundred, but Millsap miss forty four games last year mills that like if you go and look at Millsaps stats. He had the worst years at ten years. You only played thirty games even when he played. He was fifteen in six forty, six percent shooting. You know, he was just heard all year and I don't think he's, I think he's going to be good this year. So they went from. You Paul Millsap on your team, but you really don't. You have like the shell of Paul Millsap to they're adding Paul Millsap. He's gonna be good this year, and now you're adding Jamal Murray who I think we both think has a chance to be not special all the time, but have special moments like what he had last year on TNT that game. He got hot on Thursday night. I, he is a guy who has a little bit of special in him and the jokers. Great. I like this team. I like this team more than okay, sees team. Oh me too. I think they're gonna win more games than than. Okay. See the two things that I'm intrigued by. I think that they improved getting rid of moody as the backup point guard huge addition by subtraction yet and replace them with the little guy. So I'm praying that the little guys healthy. That's the other thing we get through for the little guy. The little guy comes on and and and you know, his hips are in in good health and he's he's kind of an instant offense mode that makes that second unit. So formidable, and I'll tell you, you know who I'm really intrigued by for this team, Michael. Porter Jr. I think that there's a real for him to to to step in and be an eye opener. Now he's not going to get, you know, tons of time. So he's not a rookie of the year candidate, but there's a redemption story there with him, and it's a good situation for him to to like comfortably, be kind of groomed and come on and show us something. I, I like Denver, I think they're deep. I think they're smart. I think that there they could easily win fifty two games. Michael porter Jr. also gives somebody to read to rehab with as Thomas. To them and go together unfair when they're when there's getting like two hours of injury stuff. You're right. That was me. I apologize. I love as Thomas. I, it does worry me that those. Well, at least with Zia, the upside of that for what they paid is the all time, no brainer. They get anything out of him. That's great. If if they get like kind of six men level Isaiah coming off the bench and changing game step becomes one of the most interesting teams we have. So I like the I agree. Plus they still have that advantage of marijuana being legal Colorado, and these guys posing team guys go in and they just go to the head shops and they've fucked get stoned out of their minds. That's an advantage. Yeah, not that they're not getting stoned out of their minds anyway. St. zero, Denver, speaking of getting stoned out of your minds, the Portland trailblazers there over under when they won forty, nine games last year, brought back the exact same team in their over under drop seven wins. I cannot remember a team being more damaged by a playoff ask kicking just in the perception of what they are and what's going to happen. This trailblazers thing it's like they've, they've fucking suck. Now it's over and meanwhile, they won forty nine games and they just lost in the playoffs. What's changed? Joe house, nothing. I don't understand it. I. Get the impression that Vegas is projecting some kind of undercurrent of instability Vegas must believe that the narrative that that immediately followed the s whipping that the pelicans put on this team that is the CJ and in Dame can't play together that there is something to that. And in fact, one of those two dudes is going to go over the course of the season. I don't think so. I don't know why they would do. It doesn't seem like they can get proper value out of it. I'm going over. I just like taking the over for the good people of Portland, and you know, it's there are. There are the only show in town other than the soccer team, which is really good, isn't the soccer team in Portland really good. Yeah, sure. I'm going to slide over over forty two. Forty three is all on mass to to to to come up with. It's almost like Vegas made the over under low because they know that in February the contagious caldwell-pope and Lonzo ball for Damian Lillard trade is coming. It's almost like they're doing that. That's right. It's almost like that's on their radar ready. This fake trade that is seemingly made up. That has not been discussed at all. Oh, yeah. That. Saying, okay, so what's that mean? What are you doing? Not doing anything pointing out. It's it's yet to make a pick. It's almost like they know he's going to the Lakers a couple of months. It's almost like. This is such good stuff that's almost like that. It would be like if he went on this ahead of time, I'm just saying if Damian Lillard is going to be a Laker in February, you'd probably make Portland's over under total. Forty. Two would be my dammit would be why would you let me ran rave like that. And then with this obvious insider knowledge, I don't have insider knowledge. I love talking to him pathetic all the time talking to hamper that goes in fact watch this. Yeah, I have my highlighter pen. I'm highlighting Portland because now I'm going to bet the under. They get a highlight for the ones. I'm going to bet money on hypothetical ING. I am a, I'm going, I'm going under as well. I thought they overachieved last year. I think there's a chance for major trade that will probably not reflect great on their roster, and I think the west is better and we need to teams to get bounced out of the playoffs. At least they could say three if the clippers can kind of sneak in there. But I don't think the clippers can stay on taking there, but we'll have our our time. I'm going to go into next one under or over on the under Minnesota. Forty one wins. This seems crazy to me. I actually like all right. Let's say they get sixty cents on the Dr from Minnesota. Last time I checked towns is still on this team. He's really good. They've get wears. We love to see from towns. What impact what was the Jimmy Butler effect? And and I texted, I watched a late season, Minnesota Washington game last year, and I was stunned by how impact less. There are a lot of guys that are impact full car. Karl Anthony towns was impact less, and he ended up with a double double like nine, twenty four, twelve or thirteen or something like that. He couldn't have had less to do with the outcome of the basketball game. He was just running up and down the floor yet, and I just was so befuddled by it, but you do well, you know, there's this great legacy of NBA stars going back to the sixties with like Walt Bellamy where they get their stats. But if you actually watch the entire game or you were there, you're like, how? How does that kind have twenty four points? I was here the whole time which is happened town. Towns is the captain of that team. I still think he has. I'm not. I don't think he's like this generation's Elvin Hayes or Spencer Haywood or Sidney wicks or some of these other guy. I think he's better than that, but it is weird to see him in person how he forget. He's on the court for like five minutes. Then you have that feeling like you're, you're, you're, I'm like, oh, towns is out there is he was he out there the whole time I didn't realize. And I think that's part of why Jimmy Butler is so crazy. He should have numbers like Anthony Davis. He should have forty twenty games. You know what I mean? He shouldn't have done it three forty, twenty games, CNN thingy. That's how much talent he has. I have the over for a bunch of reasons. I think Butler is staying there for at least next couple of months because they can't trade that dude. Tibbs is in a I'm getting fired anyway. There's no way he tanks. They're gonna be balls to the wall the whole time they do have some talent. If this doesn't light a fire under Wiggins, I don't know what would other than actually lighting him lighting, a fire on his ass would be the only other move other than Jimmy Butler. Just calling them out and making him just see. Mike, like he doesn't give a shit jail. I saw Jalen on countdown. He was saying there's got to be a fight the next practice. Got that level. Like people are just questioning your manhood and what you care about in life. Today's practice, which I love. Their forty one wins there is still has a chance. Like what? Let's say they get air Gordon naiad Erik Gordon that team with Butler and Wiggins and Jeff Teague and some their bench is, I don't know. I, I like their team more than Portland. And how do they get Erik Gordon? What are you talking about? I'm saying if they traded Butler Houston, oh, you said used, you said Butler that you repeated Butler being on that rile. I screwed out. I meant towns Wiggins. Erik Gordon, you know, they got Taj the benches. The benches pretty rough actually. Now that I'm looking at, it isn't Jeff Teague still the starting point guard for that team. God, I might have to redo this. Derrick rose liking joining you on the over. I think the scenario you outlined at the beginning is right, which is they're going to be stubborn as f- and you know, there's no, I, I don't think it makes sense for Butler did not go out and play. I think he should go out and play and they keep Butler and they actually do well, and it becomes this kind of weird marriage. We've seen this before like, yeah, San Antonio traded Sean, Elliott for Robert Horry and the deal got voided and they kept Sean Elliott, and that's about as bad of a situations. You can have a team and then went inside overshot Elliott. Like we've seen really weird roster situations kinda play itself out naturally, and I think it could happen here. I like the over. I don't see them having a losing record. All right. The Pacific Golden State sixty three wins. I, I don't want to litigate this for an hour. And where do you must at the two hour Mark. I don't know why didn't they win sixty three games last year with fucks the difference. Now it's another year of them talking about what a grinded is and how tired they are. And yeah, how about this? Not with not counting Cleveland. Dave played thirty more games and eight thousand more minutes at any other team in the NBA over the last three years. So right. That's it. Let's not relitigate it. Let's let's not litigated at all. I'm taking the under. It's really hard to win sixty four and above doesn't happen often. They have old guys in this team who now no Livingston Igwe Dala. You know, guys that are key guys, if you really trying to win sixty four games who they just want to be healthy and April may and June, they're not gonna play those guys that much. They're gonna throw all these random dudes. The one guy I said this end-july nobody believe me. They stole Jerebko from Utah. I don't know why you tied and keep Jerebko Gerashchenko communis he's going to be good for them. Yoenis is gonna ask the keys a perfect warrior. The owners can be good for them. There may not have exchanged texts with somebody who coaches the warriors who was raving about Yoenis we, you know, he, he fills the whole that David west left behind, and you know, great job by David west, get in his ring way to go d west that was money. I'm, I'm happy, did it. He contributed to that team. Jerebko is is perfect to slide into that role. By the way, there's this new trend that I keep hearing with them basketball insiders, where they, they credit the team that they, they're passing on information, but it's always super positive. So it'd be like, you know, talked to guy at the worse. He, he thinks Quinn cook, make the NBA team. It's all it's all this like infomercial information. If you like, if somebody who's I'm not saying there that was a joke obviously, but it's stuff like that. Like talk to guide Sixers, like they think Marco folks could be all defense. And it's like, yeah, of course they're telling you that they worked for the team. What are they going to be like? Markup faults is a fucking cloud show. It's never happening. Like of course, they're going to build these guys up. I, it's my new favorite Trent from an information standpoint with talk to tuck the guy at the ringer. He said nephew Kyle's, really doing great. Wait a minute. Car really is doing great. I know. But I'm saying, like, if you know you're nobody, you're not gonna hear like tuck together at the raiders nephew. 'cause fucking train wreck. Every time we call Joe Hasyim asks for the number he has. No, I d true though. That's the madman. Because mad shutting down there because three phone numbers to remember for some reason, won't write them on a piece of paper. I have Jacko's in both houses number, and then if you Kyle is doing great just for the record, but house, but a toxic I Golden State. You said he said, they love Drapka. They think he's great. All right. That's enough -nough. All right. We're making under Lakers under Lakers. You're hungry. You're hungry. Lakers forty, eight and a half or making this a lack. Here's my case LeBron James is on this team. I like the young guys. This team has a higher percentage of guys that I like than almost any other team with the exception of caldwell-pope trade his ass. As soon as you can. I like LeBron on a young team, we talked about this on the MVP podcasts with kerosene russillo. I just think there's gonna be a lot of energy at those Laker games. I think it'd be very tough to beat. I think LeBron is heard, although, oh, maybe he's storing away this year. All that crap. I like him in Lonzo. I think Ingram's really good. I like Josh art Rondo as you pointed out earlier was essential for New Orleans last year and could be essential for this team. I liked the roster. I wish they had signed brook Lopez instead of jail is the one is the major glaring move. The other ones are expiring, whatever, like those guys are going to be packaged into a trade. But I, you Oper sitting down house. I think this is the three seed. I have them as three seat. Yeah, I think that's crazy talk. I think they are fifty five and twenty seven fifty six. I'm not saying I swear to God. I swear my kids. I'm not saying this as a reverse jinx on the Lakers. I really January it. I just want to get that out because people on as a deck, eight, you so much. Now they love that what you're up to now I'm not interest. I swear my kids. I swear nephew on my kids. This is not a raging. I think the Lakers are gonna win the three seed. I think they're going to win fifty five or fifty six games and I think they are going to be one of the stories of the I. I don't know two months of the season as like, wow, the Lakers are good. I who saw this coming. I fucking see it coming. The Lakers are gonna be good period. Well, I will say this. I'm joining you in the lock because I to think the Lakers are going to be good. This track record of LeBron James winning at least fifty games every. Season that he plays. You know, I think that's a pretty good track record. He's one at least fifty games every season since two thousand seven, two thousand eight. I list look at the calendar. That's ten years ago. Not counting the stupid vox year. I am so dumb that I watched the entirety of last night's preseason game. I watched like two thirds of it. I really enjoyed it. I drew conclusions that are completely ridiculous. Yeah, I love the Lakers team. I think they're good. I think Ingram by the way, what's the dude's name? Who's doing the video work for you? It's a new innovation of we have a lot of NBA content from the ringer. It's effing delicious. The leap who's doing bunch of our people. We have great people. I don't wanna give credit because then somebody else will be. There's like one guy who had this thing from dime drop. Whoa. Who's that guy? Well, the guy, the guy running that as Kyle, man, but our whole team makes it with them. But yeah, kind of course. Get stuff? Well, I like Ingram. Piece. I really like Lonzo and I keep saying this, I'll buy all your Lonzo stock if you're Lonzo stocks for sale Senate my whale by it. I think him in him in LeBron it'd be good together. I liked the Laker team. We're aligned. But you don't. Yeah, I have Utah's a three CG. Absolutely right about that. Sounds like a side bet. Would you wanna bet. Ooh, this is good. Yeah. With Simon the shit out of the VAR choice, MAB your viewers as your Domo meal. Yeah, that's right. Well, that already happened, but your second major Domo meal. I will. I'll find another restaurant in LA. I mean, we're, I'm going to tell you about last week that tell you about last week. Know what happened last week. Oh, you were in New York? Yeah. We went to major Domo Sam, the original major Domo restaurant, New York in Chiang. They had this giant duck. And we took it down. Like like, like when five people are tackling gronkowski and he won't go down and it's just finally, the pile gets them. That was we were the pile and the duck was gronkowski and he did go down. It was great. You were. I've had the duck at sandbar was obser-, but it was many years ago. I was not chef. David Tang was there an I know Chang has terrific support. So I think we had great duck and it's time we had it together, but it was so imagine I can only imagine last week's duck three teams left LA clippers thirty seven f wins. I'm going over why? I think they owe you going under. I Schwimmer wire. Why you ask for the teams that for the third team in the west, that's going to be terrible. It needs to be the LA clippers there. It just doesn't make one lick of sense. The only thing that that has them doing anything at all is the fact that Doc Rivers is still the coach. Doc is not a tank kind of kind of coach. They have neither the talent nor the incentive to be good. They should stink. They, this is the time to buy them out Steve bombers, a businessman as a businessman needs to look in the mirror, understand what he has in front of him and get rid of assets and prepare for the reinvention of the business. Let's Steve bombers the same guy who by just making a shitload of mistakes created apple basically for apple. Microsoft still doing pretty good. I know what you did there. I'm going over. I don't think they're capable of tanking between bomber doc. I don't think either the of any interest in it and actually like some of the players in their team. And I think I could see that like one thirty, nine forty one. I liked to buy his Harris. I liked. Really is likable. Beverly is likable on a different team to buy. I like the different team. I like what I've read in the shade Gioja sow Zander. Oh yeah. Yeah. Yeah. The Kentucky kid I think is the other thing. Here's the other reason I like the over. I think they have a chance. If they want to. By the way they hopefully gallon ARIS healthy, the share. And if he's south, I like him. I like t- Tedo dosage. They got my Bob Mugabe for little defense, the guy Avery Bradley, this team can actually DEA. They can put out Beverly Avery Bradley, mob Mugabe, Tobias, Harris, and Harrow heralds. My favorite guy in this team. I like the gum going over on the clippers you win over and they make a trade. All right. Well, you're going to be wrong. Well, that's it. That would be the thing that would screw me on the under. That's that's perfectly fine. Complementary set of players surrounding super-duper star who wants to come to LA, but they played defense though. Sure. Yeah. Like I say complementary. So to rank goes to the clippers next year, do you think more or less of him. Did that. I think that that's perfect. That would be a very Steve bomber kind of play. That would be a smart businessman preparing his team to to to, you know, in seizing it season the Ning it, yeah, seasoning it anyway. I know Phoenix after wonderful superstar like David Chang, preparing a wonderful array of lettuce wraps and other kinds of Kuchar to go with a beautiful lacquered duck that you dropped down for you mother efforts last week when I couldn't come to dinner, I loved it. Phoenix twenty nine and a half the case against them. They have no point guard and they just fired their GM nine days before the season which was actually kinda hilarious like is so weird. Had the guy, the draft for age, say then fire them, like what kind of jackass is in charge of anything that would do that the the case for them is eight and has really impress people in the preseason. I still feel I dont should should have gone number one, but I saw the case for Eytan eight and. Like a man's ban out there. And he's the oldest looking twenty one year old. We've had in a while in the NBA Josh Jackson possible step up Devon Booker little scoring. Trevor Aretha not a great year last year, but some veteran leadership like there are pieces and there is a crunch time that I enjoy what this team and I, I don't think they're going to tank. I think I think part of this is. They actually might be fun and a little bit frisky. Their fans have been waiting to watch a good team for a while. And there's upside with Aiden, you know, like there's a chance. So I like everything except for the fact that their point guard is named Elliott Okubo Akobo. I don't know who that is house. I watch basketball. I'm Elliot. Kobo. Sure. He's from France. He's twenty years old. He was there thirty first pick in the second round and on the ESPN depth chart. He's there number one point guard right now, which I'm sure isn't you. Here's my question. Just play Devon, Booker point guard. What's the big deal? Just use them like curry heaven, bring the ball up and then run out some screens. It's not rocket science. Let me ask you this winds Devon Booker going to be back playing basketball. That I don't know. Why was he out on a scooter? I know whatever fake ass thing they came with that wasn't to explain. I don't like that. He just got all his money. They destroyed said they entrusted the franchise to him. I said, okay, young fellow, yeah. Got it. You did your thing you you've put us on the map earlier than we had -ticipant. It'd be another map yet. These these enormous scoring outburst. We respect that. Thank you for doing it. Here's your your reward and what he did was go out and be irresponsible behind their backs and cheat on them. I'm taking the under. I don't like franchises photo play in season opener. Harmful hopeful to play in the season opener? Yeah. Well, I hope I hope that works out for him. I want to know what the injury was. I wanna see his hand. I wanted to see whether or not he's wearing a brace on his hand. I'm taking the under because it also makes sense for them. They still need one more piece to me. Yeah, I'm going to by the way preview. Well, I'll save it for a, oh, I have a porta view on eight. And when it comes to rookie of the year, you know you, you swayed me the other way. You're right. If Booker was guns blazing one hundred percent healthy coming in the season because they'd have to start out pretty well for them not to realize it's a good idea to tank. If he's not healthy and they start out to eight to ten. You know, at some point, the path will become pretty clear, so I'll join you. I'm gonna go. I'm gonna go under for them. And I'm also gonna go under for Sacramento or next team. Twenty. Six. It's easy. Yeah. Under also that's easy. There's nothing to talk about your Sacramento. Yeah. Sorry. You're, you're, you're, you're Sacramento. Now, here's the catch for them. They don't have their pick. Do not have who has it. Philly gets it if it's top one, the Boston Celtics get it if it's two or later. So there's that it's a shame they need to go into the market and get another pick, but they the only trade assets or Marvin Bagley dare and FOX, and they need both those guys, right? And I think they're actually, so there's we've seen this scenario Brooklyn where they play so hard. They actually get the over even though you don't know what the after doing and they're in April. They win like six of seven, and they feel good about themselves. I'm still going under just because it's Sacramento, but they won twenty seven last year and and they had the point differential of twenty win team and they're over under twenty six. So in the Lakers spot on twenty six or twenty five, we're both taking the under. We have an agreement at the end of this assessment. So we're going over for h. Bob in Dallas, thirty, five wins. We're going over Lakers forty and a half wins. Does it. The only lacks we like in the west. And I think that's fair. I think it's fair to play it safe because the west had so much flex. I think it would be stupid to get brazen. You're not about being Brayson. We're about winning money, but. Oh, yeah. And you like the Utah lack. So you had seven lock side? Five. I'm not. I'm not. I'm not forcing to more lax if you want to have seven. So be it. I know what my five are Joe house. This was a pleasure to was fun. As I look forward to talking to you in two hours on cousin sows NBA future. I'm gonna go eat for two hours before that podcast. I'm eating the entirety of the break between these podcasts. Good. All right. Talk this. All right. Thanks to house. Thanks to ZipRecruiter. Don't forget to go to ZipRecruiter dot com. Slash Bs. Thanks to the ringer podcast network. Remember lots of good stuff coming on the ringer, these next few days as we head toward preview palooza all day on Tuesday, I got a chance to see one of the videos which is almost an hour long. It's definitely the longest one that has really good at that at that the team did a great job, very excited. All this stuff very excited for the NBA season back Sunday night with the cousins until then.