RBC Heritage & GEICO 500 - Betting the Board with Brian Blessing June 16, 2020
They get everybody and thank you for joining me here on this Tuesday June sixteenth edition of Bangla Book Radio. My name is Adam Burke your host for the next twenty minutes as I chat with Brian Blessing, the host of Sportsbook, radio, and Vegas hockey hotline we'll talk about the RBC heritage down at Harbour town in Hilton head South Carolina Wall also talk about this week's Nascar race at Talladega the GEICO five hundred. Hundred will try later in the week to do some stuff on the Belmont, we'll see if we get to it still waiting on the post positions and past performances and all that of the field, so we'll try to do that later in the week, but if not there will be a preview of it over at Bang, Book Dot Com speaking of Bangor Book Dot Com got golf. We Got Nascar we got. We got coverage of the NBA Nhl Playoffs with some futures discussion all that kind of thing, and of course, the daily KB article, so make sure you check that out as well as you. This edition of Bang Book Radio, presented by our friends over at. sportsbook bt be and the number two hundred is that Promo Code One hundred percent deposit match moments for the Sports Book One. Hundred percent deposit. Match Bonus for the live casino at the SL. It's only a game until you bet it like. I said joining me here. Today is Brian blessing host of SPORTSBOOK RADIO AND Hockey outline. Going today, man. All. Right Adam listened gulfs back. That was great and You know we did the podcast last week and I will tell you. The plan worked. And that was. We had grenade prices all over the place with the uncertainty of them coming off a layoff. But said you watch and. Apply what you've seen! Sunday morning I got Burger at fourteen to one. In he was three back and you know what? Is, much homework is you do or you look at it and all the things that come to memory? Information's a wonderful thing. I'm watching the broadcast Saturday. And I'm pretty sure. I think it was dottie pepper that said because. They're following the same five six seven guys well. They only showed burger hit about three or four shots. But during the one little short blurb where they had burger up. She's talking about how he was. Rookie of the year had a wrist injury and. He just kind of disappeared. But then since he had returned. That before the shut that he was playing better than anybody who he didn't win, but he had like a ridiculous streak of like thirty rounds consecutive rounds under par like leading the PGA by a good margin so I'm sitting there. Sunday morning having heard that and. He's three back. And if you're basically telling me I'm guaranteed, he shooting sixty nine or better. He'll fourteen to one now got lucky. Obviously, because more cow green was the best player he missed a boatload of putts on Thursday, and that was the precursor him missing a four-foot or to win. On eighteen and a three footer to stay alive in the playoff, but I'm telling you. The strategy is to shoot for the moon head into the tournament. And then reload heading into the weekend or even on the morning at a fine around and get the overlaid price of that's the beauty betting golf. Yeah definitely again like you said I mean that's what we're trying to do here. We're trying to look for the big numbers from a pretournament standpoint, and then watch follow along pay as much attention as you can I mean. Yeah, you might have to pay a little bit for PGA tour. Live or something like that, but you can follow a lot of the stuff. Stuff that's going on Thursday Friday of course see near the golf channel CBS coverage on Saturday, and Sunday and Kudos to you for that. Burger grabbed. They're going into the final round. And you know what? Yeah? Maybe you got a little bit lucky. That more Cala miss some pots that schoff late. You know maybe miss that putt on eighteen. Maybe he goes and. In the playoff. Kisses a flyer lie, honestly I mean. To. Take what you watch and apply at this week. Then to Shambo says after the route Yeah. It's frustrating, but I didn't do anything wrong and I hadn't been playing any competitive golf. Forget that he's all bulked up and he hits it a mile. He played great and the bottom line is. He's right in the teeth of this thing. He hits a six iron off the tee. Right into the center of Fairway Hits amount and. You know it just rolls about a foot into the first cut. And it was a fluffy lie, and he had a pitching wedge hid, and there was a flyer line, and the things took off. He flew the green and it was a bogey. Through no fault of his own, but I I of all the favorites mcelroy Thomas Rahm. Shaw Shaw Fleas. I love softly softly showed the guts of a burglar by the way hit it in the water. Make sixty footer for bogey, then a long Birdie PUTT and He, he's got. He's got guts that kid. I, I love Sh- awfully, but of the favorites to Shambo looks like he's a guy on a mission to me and I think he comes right back with another big effort. But you know I'm not going. Schalke, but of the joke the shambo would be the guy the top of the list from what I saw. Now think about software to is that when you look at his past results, he plays the best in the best fields on the toughest courses. He's almost one of those guys that you know. He's probably not very good practice player, but when you get to the game, he just stands out. He seems like that Kinda guy here his fighters. His demeanor zone believable. He doesn't go nuts when he makes it. He doesn't flip out when he misses it, you know. And he's just solid. He's with the kids. Win a major in the next two years, if not. Later this year says you mentioned rory, your favorite about ten to one to Shambo eleven twelve to one Justin Thomas same range there Jon. Rahm about eighteen to one. Justin rose I saw him as high as thirty two one earlier in the week here. Earlier in the week being on Monday now I'm seeing him down in the twenty to one ranch. So seems like he's getting a little bit of love this week. Sunjay 'em cranks out another top ten, east, twenty, two one along with Webb, Simpson and sh- awfully Patrick Reed played really well last week. He's twenty two to one more `Akaola. Maybe the Best Iron Player on or twenty five to one speech was good. He's twenty eight to one here this week along with. Matsuyama who didn't play last week, but once again really really good field here at Harbour town par seventy, one about seventy one hundred yards. This is another one though much like last week where you don't necessarily have to be a bomber to put up a good score. No and I think. What we watched last week. The things I would normally apply say coming in. Who got their act together on the weekend and they found something. And the other thing is I. Think you have to be willing to forgive? Because they were all shaking off rust, but the guys that made the cut. And the good stuff on the weekend I thought Holland and Niemann are big prices. They look good now. The one that Kisner always plays well here, but there's a trend. Is the sample size big enough I don't know. But in the last four tournaments at harbour town. FIRST TIME PGA tour winner last year it was C., T. Pan, so if you're looking for a guy to win its first PGA, tour event. And that if that's a trend in, you gotTA use a guy in that category. I'M GONNA use Matthew Fitzpatrick at sixty to one. And then used to cut to the chase again it comes down to. Like last week I had five six guys on the Front End The lowest guy was eighty two one guys as high as five, hundred, fifty, two, one, a literally the only run I got for my money, was Jim Furic, and then said limp him in swing and then make your play. You know after you see it, but I think also I think I'm going to whittle it down. And not do as much a at the end of the year, the average return on investment doing it that weighs about thirty two one of, but if I do less on the front end bigger bets on the reload on Friday night, and then even on the on the final day. That might be my strategy so. Throw names out there I gotta decide I'm going to do only three this week. Fitzpatrick's one he's at sixty to one. Because there's a category four in a row first time winners. I want to do it, but I'm not gonNA. Bataille Hatton's at sixty, two one and the guy was six hundred two WGC then he won, and so basically he's coming off the shelf and he played great coming off the shelf before. That's a ridiculous overlay on Hatton with the for me had. Before the layoff, so I think he could take a look at Tyat Idaho what I'm GonNa? Do for the Fitzpatrick's at sixty Hatton's at sixty, but then the swing for the fence. We know when we did this podcast. In the Spring Adam we were talking about watch out for guys. That were coming out of the President's Cup and Lo and behold they won like four out of the next six tournaments. Guys that had. Competed in played well in the president. Cup In was one of them. Another guy was Cameron Smith now. Smith missed the cut by two shots here, colonial. So you know, you're shaking rust off, and so he played some competitive golf and he doesn't work the only reason I'm saying this is ridiculous overlay. The guys ranked thirty eighth in the world. He's fifteenth in the Fedex. And he's got to win. There's only been eleven tournaments this year and this guy's got one of the eleven wins in these one hundred and twenty five to one. It's insanity. So just on the Pricing GonNa play Cameron Smith, but the one that really just. Sticks out like a sore thumb to me. I'm not as big as fan. In, he doesn't kick the door down that often, but I watched the tournament this weekend. bubba Watson is a hundred to one. He Shot Sixty, eight, sixty, six, sixty, eight, sixty, five at colonial now, Bubba Watson plays sweeping slices and hooks and colonial. Is this narrow? Course or you don't need to be a bomber. You gotta play from the Short Grass. Bubba Watson on that course. You're thinking the way he moves the ball. That course would not be good for him. He played great. If you look at his record this year, he was third in the waste management six that the farmers and he just you know shoot sixty five Sunday finishes seventh in the Charles Schwab. Is Current Form He's one hundred one. He's got three top ten's recently. How was he one hundred to one? I don't know that's a good list. So I definitely like a few of those guys. A few of those guys I took it very close. Look at because. We talked about year to date statistics, and I don't know how relevant those are right now coming off of essentially three months of not playing a competitive PGA tour tournament so I'm kind of looking at the guys that did really well last week in terms of hitting fairways, and in terms of making putts one of them Matthew Fitzpatrick who's also on my list here this week. Fifteen strokes gained putting last week. He was in the top fifteen in driving accuracy. Those are two things that will play very well here once again this week at Harbour town, another guy and interestingly enough. This is a guy who kind of graded similar to bubba Watson in a lot of ways last week Rory Sabbatini. Out there in the hundred hundred and twenty-five. One, hundred, twenty, five to one ranch, fourth and strokes gained putting last week top twenty and driving accuracy. He played really really well, and he's a guy that's actually played well here in the past at Harbour town. Also you'll guy that's got four top ten finishes at Harbour Town over the last ten tournaments, two additional top twenty's tenth last year plays very very well here and I'll throw out one more in the interest of time this weekend. Head on over to Talladega for a minute but grace. You Know Brandon Grace. The price isn't great on him this week I think I've seen in the forty to sixty. Two one range is a past winner here, which is why this price is dragged out a little bit but last week. He sprayed it all over the place. He was dead last of guys that made the cut in driving accuracy yet finished in the top ten, because he was top twenty in strokes, gain putting and strokes gained approach. You gotTA figure a get a guy that didn't swing well. Well off the tee managed to scramble well managed to make some putts if he hits more fairways here this week, and he seems pretty comfortable at Harbour town given his past performances here I. think that's a guy that should be in the running on Sunday as well and again. These just outright prices that we're looking at head to head matchups guys to keep an eye on heading into the weekend. They make the cut stuff like that I. Throw it a lot of good names here. Yeah, and you know. Again you listen, you know it's your money management. How you bet it I will say this of the grenade prices that I played last week the only guy. That I got a real because we said that you were throwing darts. You know you had to see what they were doing. We didn't know what they were doing for thirteen weeks, but the way the course. The course called for hitting the short grasping good off the tee. The only guy gave me run for my money was Jim Furic. By the way. Jim furic recently one. At Harbour town. So furic at a big number you. He played well. He played very well at colonial. The furic an insane play here either. I guess I will throw it one more name quickly here about eighty to one hundred or so Ian Poulter influencer played relatively well last week. He's got back to back top ten finishes at Harbour town, also an eleventh eighteenth, and what's unique about the tournament this year? Well, there are few things it's not an invitational field by definition. They expanded the field to one hundred and fifty five players, but the second biggest thing is that this tournament often follows the masters so a lot. Lot of the top names haven't really played this event. Certainly haven't played at recently and a guy like poulter. We know poulter plays well at Augusta. He's added some very emotional rounds there. He's not coming off of the masters this time. He's just focused solely on this tournament. Maybe eighty to one with good history here answer pretty good putting last week. Maybe that's not a bad name to take a look at either I won't say you stole my thunder, but I didn't mention it. But if it's idiot, minds think alike is probably the safer way to put it. That was that was also one of the reasons. I I was looking at Bubba Watson, because this tournament was always right after the masters and Bubba. Watson doesn't play here I am looking back on his past results and you know obviously. He's one green jacket, but this was this was a tournament that was just not unbuckle Watson's schedule. Does you know the the course at the? Augusta's obviously set up for Bubba Watson. There were times he one where he was gonna go, and for whatever reason I decide went back about five years secure. I just didn't see him playing. Playing Hilton head because it was the week after the masters, but honestly I I. The bubble, Watson one to me, just from current form perspective with three top tens, and and he's is coming up. know playing really really well I'm not saying he's winning the tournament. But you're telling me. You know the way Dustin. Johnson played the bubble Watson. Shouldn't be thirty five to one instead Dustin Johnson. Or Tony Female. Kisner and grace. He's thinking could afterthought I. It's it's an overlay. We always searched for bad numbers. You know that's a bad number. Well? Let's see how that one plays out not just on Thursday and Friday, but also throughout the weekend there with a lot of the guys that we mentioned a lot of those guys covered in my article over Bengal Book, dotcom in my daily fantasy article as well and Brian I know you also did something here. recorded a golf podcast your own on, Monday? Just think I'm going from memory from. Because, they only showed him once or twice. I'm not sure, but the bubble lose the idiot yellow ball I mean. You can't win a golf tournament with a driving range ball. Yeah, I think he played a white golf ball I like him even more. Yellow Golf ball a million I mean every time he goes to hit it. I'm thinking there should be a bucket next, do it. What bet maker Golf podcast. I believe. That's on your twitter feed at Brian Blessed Yeah. At Brian, blessing on twitter. Do it with Cam Stewart and it's he's a riot. We and we have good time. If I we both He Got Burger at a balloon number. He Got Burger at seventy I got him Sunday morning at fourteen a bit which speaks to the way. You know you can bet things and then the other thing you know the fun you have with the Gulf. I take little flyers to have some fun. You know I'm not like. Clowning around I'm trying to make money on it, but I did a three team matchup. Parley Saturday and Two of them. The one I was worried about hit 'cause speed come out of the gate, but softly came back and beat them Sunday I. Think was the other one, and then the one that I thought was in the Cookie Jar was burger over woodland and woodland birdied seventeen eighteen to beat me on Saturday, but then Sunday I came back and got I caught the the good side. Side of it played another three team parlay with matchups and Patrick Reid birdied three of the final four holes to win the match up. So you know it's not just the odds to win this thing. They're real opportunities with the matchups as well but I I. Honestly I believe a lot of this is watching watching Thursday, Friday and playing those weekend matchups. Once you've seen these guys play. Then you know hey, you got a little gin and opportunity because. You got a frame of reference. You know I I you know coming into. The first round you can do it and you got a shot, but I think once you've seen them. Play your your chances are enhanced mightily if you ask me. Well. We head to the superspeedway now. The big track at Talladega that Geico five hundred God knows your favorite little more than ten to one out there in the marketplace, someplace is probably a little higher than that then Hamlin. The second favorite last week's winner eleven to one bread Kazlauskas eat thirteen blaney fourteen same as chase. Harvick Kyle Busch in that fourteen to one ranch, and if not prices sound big to you well, it's Talladega. It's no longer technically a restrictor plate race. They put a tapered spacer on the engine. So has the same effect, but as we know, this is always an interesting race, the big track to fast track big crashes all those kinds of things so you see the favorite prices go up a little bit, but the second tier and the third tier prices come down quite a bit for the Geico five hundred. My favorite races of the year are Talladega. And this is where you swing for the fence. You know NASCAR, basically. You know you you need the engine under the hood and Mile and a half tracks and. Bristol's kind of maybe the field is leveled off a little bit, but this is a crap shoot. This is guys that know how to put themselves to be in position in the last three or four laps, and you need the luck to avoid the big accident. Because if there's sometimes, there's two big ones and literally at the end of the race, there could be six to eight cars. That are running on the lead lap. That didn't get collected in the big accident and you can get the home run price. I I actually I had read. It could forty two one last week. This kid is a stud and. He's so aggressive and he's only twenty two one this week. but I I gotta run for my money with him. The feet of got by Blaney. he was coming at the leaders, but he had a great run I've been using him. He's was. He's stealing money with in these group matchups. They got him down against some of the lower tier. Guys believe me he. He's climbing the ladder fast I've tyler redican group matchups. Take a look for him to guys I'm absolutely I said this weeks ago? and I'm going to play them. Honestly I'm a bit disappointed. I was hoping for a much better price. But maybe the cats out of the bag. Eric Role is at twenty two to one. The guys just really good at restrictor plate racing. And you need you need some luck. You gotta be there the other guy that I think. Has Run well in restrictor plate races and is a name. We're going to hear from you. Know in the not too distant future. He's racing with the wood brothers. It's still a car. That's a notch below the other cars, but. I don't care what they say they did. You know you're you're sucking up right up against the guy pushing then you know having that one run at the end of the race. But if he doesn't get collected a guy at forty, two one. Met the Benedetto I'm those are the two guys I'm playing this week Eric Morello and met Benedetto. Because this is the race? You can play prices. I like radic as well and in fact I see him here. Best Finisher for Group E with Eric, Jones Jimmy Johnson and Ryan, Newman wreck plus two seventy. The highest number off of that group I agree with that and you know something I. Thought was pretty interesting as I was handicapping this race this morning, Toyota. Is that done particularly well here of late Ford and Chevy, have occupied a lot of the top five spots and a lot of the top ten spots so. Again I've talked about that a little bit here off and on throughout the season of fading. Some Toyota guys wasn't not handling last week. Of course he winds up winning but Kyle Busch just. Something's off. Something is misfiring doesn't have a win here. True X. obviously has run very well, but he does not run well all at Talladega for one reason or another, and in fact you look at. This week twenty six to one at five times. That's below. Guys like Ricky Stenhouse. Guys like Clint Boyer Amaral as you mentioned Alex Bowman. That's below him as well so directs looks to be off the radar a little bit here this week. Also Kevin Harvick win. Do Ever See Kevin Harvick in the fifteen to one ranch for a race, but he's just not great here at Talladega, and some of these guys like this race. Some of them don't and the that don't. It almost does feel like kind of a throwaway event to them. Yeah, I mean you got to accept? The. Honestly. The guys that? You can get yourself in trouble by playing it safe, but there are great cars that you watch them. They just go to the back of the pack. Then they just cruise around. Wait for the big accident and then hope they can slow down in avoided. And, then all of a sudden at the end of the race there you know the car is fine. They're just strategy. Stay in back. They're going I don't WANNA run tenth and be flying up there and my car's as fast as the other car because the guy in the second row spins out takes takes you out so some quality cars will strategy wise. Be Racing at the back of the pack. One other guy should mention, and the oddsmakers are on board with there's and it's A. It's a bit of a deflated number. The other guy who a he's always really good on restarts Andy's aggressive at more often than it seems like he's the guy that pushes the guy to the win, but Kurt Busch is always really good restrictor plate racing so i. say the three for me. you know the names that are not media touch below? The the top tier guys but I would say L. Merola di Benedetto Kurt Busch would be the guys. I'd be looking at here. I like Bush a little bit here to four straight top ten finishes in the spring, race and in the fall race actually led the most laps in two thousand eighteen, then finished fourteenth in that one, but you look at last year. Stop Five. One Alex Bowman was second. That was before this early season breakout. The other guys in the top six Ryan Priests Daniel Henrik Kurt Busch Brennan gone actually finished eighth you head. Ryan Blaney Win in the Fall Ryan Newman was second L. Arolla was fourth Michael. McDowell was fifth. So that just speaks to. You know kind of how the top five can look here. At Talladega with some of those big, if I'm not mistaken I'm trying to think if there was an accident at the end. At Talladega last year I think there was. But if memory serves in the last lap or who? Brendan gone either had the leader was running second line. He and he finished eighth in. He may got collected in an accident. Right at the wire, but that's the it tells you the wide open nature. This Brendan gone avoid the accidents. There was there was two big accidents and he was literally in there with I mean anybody can win this thing. It's just a question of avoiding the big accident and it's going to happen. Brian Blessing, the host sportsbook radio and Vegas. Hockey I. What do you got going on on those two shows by? Noon to two Pacific Time case HP DOT com get the listen live function. Their shows are archived at sports radio DOT COM IT with links out on twitter. at Brian Blessing and listened the sports. Books are back up and running, so we always have a great roster of sportsbook directors on sportsbook radio and the hockey show we, we get great guests from around the NHL. You're a hockey fan and believe me. This is getting interesting by the way they extended the. US Canadian border closure to the end of? Excuse me to July. Twenty First! So? That doesn't necessarily doesn't help, but it doesn't necessarily preclude FDA TIN or Toronto to be one of the hub cities reporting two camps on July tenth. But I would think they'd want to make an announcement. Prior to Vegas is pretty much a stroke on board to be one of the cities in the east. Eastern conference teams will become a debate use. I. Guess it's Columbus Pittsburgh. States but clearly Edmonton and Toronto most likely Toronto The in the Eastern Conference could be one of the hub cities, but the news now that the borders closures extended the July twenty first. Doesn't help, but it doesn't preclude them because the players somehow or have already been crossing the borders back and forth, get back to their respective teams. Well it should be very interesting to watch as we go forward. Make sure you listen to Vegas hockey outlined. We're that gets talked about on the regular. What's follow Brian on twitter at Brian Blessing as well Bryan. Appreciate your time as always. Thank you so much for joining me and talk to you again later in the week or some time next week. Brent always a good time. There you go, there's Brian blessing once again sportsbook. RADIO DOT COM. Dot Com for sportsbook radio and Vegas hockey hotline at Brian Blessing on twitter. I'll be back on Thursday with another addition of the box Arcadio. Bedding podcast now do for me. They can switch for listening everybody and we'll talk to you again on Thursday.