Out of the Gate - Episode 106 - Fountain of Youth Stakes Edition

Automatic TRANSCRIPT

Yeah. Welcome to add to the gate daily racing forms weekend. Handicapping preview program. I'm Dan Oldman. Thanks so much for watching. Here's what's coming up in this week's edition of out of the gate. They're only nine graded stakes races at Gulfstream on Saturday and Diarra handicappers. Mike, beer, MAC Bernier, and I will take a look at three of the major ones in this edition of out of the gate. Of course, the Kentucky, Derby prep, the grade to fountain of youth stakes of Cork's, the Kentucky oaks prep, the grade to devoted Dale steaks. And a really nice betting race to close out the card. The grade to MAC Dermott JK Jonathan kitchens play the day focuses on and Gulfstream pick four David era going from time form US spotlights. Three value plays on the Gulfstream card, Nicole Rousseau's gonna take a look at some of the pedigrees of the major three year old contenders in the fountain of youth and Craig mcaliskey's time foreign pace projector focuses on the Honey FOX stakes also at Gulfstream on Saturday. Plus best bet sources to watch and lots lots more. So let's break out of the gate. We begin out of the gate with our horse. Watch segment. Matt you found something out in southern California. Yeah. I gotta be honest. I thought this is a promising debut. This is a horse called galloping mischief. This is debut runner for Richard Mandella. Let's go back to this run last Saturday down the hill widest and fastest of all. And you want to talk about fastest of all this horses are running fool out there. This is the three year old gelding debt. You know, Mandela doesn't normally fire I out of the box when this horse just comes in absolutely runs over the top this field that you're gonna get a little bit green at the end Bob to has left lead. But I thought this is very promising effort. He came home in twenty seven sixteen of the next fastest come home time was almost twenty eight and a half seconds. So this really finished. I would imagine if they don't try the main track next out they'll try to stretch this out to turn on turf that was some serious exceleron in the lane. Mike your horse watch didn't finish like that. But you showed some promise in stakes company in New York. I'd like to take that bat horse to wash offers really are in this daily Princess, though, she did a little run in the stretch to we'll put up the replay for rights I like horses like this dance. She's a little bit. Underrated goes for connections that don't win a ton. But they know what. They're doing and she shows up and runs every time. This is our third career start on dirt. She's run really, well and all of them, and she's a price in this race in steaks and estate. She didn't really have any chance to win the the horse that wins. The race stones in the road. Just got loose on the lead. He she is now an undefeated three for three like to run the source puts in she was out of it at the top of the stretch. She will get up for second. At the end of the big price this Phillies been good at all three. She's got a little bit of potential over the last few years. The Greek trainer. Todd Pletcher is sent some inexperienced horses to Tampa Bay downs. In order to gain confidence in twenty seventeen. It was always dreaming who ended up winning the Kentucky Derby vino row. So that you're also wanna Tampa Bay and route to winning the Wood Memorial last year. It was magnum moon who won an allowance race before doing some really big things on the three year old trail at Oaklawn. And maybe Todd is going to do it again with a three year old named spinoff who made his seasonal in to turn debut last week at Tampa Bay downs. They swing into the stretch in this is already taken the lead. And I just love the way. He accelerated from this field at about the three sixteenths poll now is going to get a little bit green. He's going to stare off into the stands, but he really finishes well over a horse named cave run who's done some good things. Earlier this meet at Tampa Bay spinoff runs an eighty four Beyer speed figure winning by eleven and three quarter lengths he's a half to rugby man takes place towards that's a little bit of a goofball in his own right? But he's just got a beautiful pedigree. He's by hard spun his dam was the grade one acorn winner off dig the damn herself a half to the grade one mother goose winner Zoe impressive and the second dam. Winner of the grade one selene stakes. I think we'll see spin off in a major Kentucky, Derby prep down the road, perhaps not the Tampa Bay derby. But maybe we'll see him at Oaklawn park in a race. Like the rebel. Keep an eye on spinoff for trainer Todd Pletcher. Let's get to some handicapping the Kentucky, Derby prep this week is the fountain of youth. Off the field for a very important Kentucky Derby prep race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday race number thirteen is the great to fountain of youth stakes. Four hundred thousand dollars is the purse. This full field is going mile and a sixteenth four free formulator past performances for the fountain of youth head on over to the race of the day event page at dot com. And for expanded stakes previews of all nine graded races at Gulfstream on Saturday, plus lots lots more head on over to video dot dot com. Or the daily racing form YouTube channel, they'll be uploaded by Friday afternoon vis race goes through the Bill mocked trained hidden scroll. And Matt we talked about hidden scrolls pros and cons on the expanded stakes preview the race of the day. Of course in this race all three of us to try to go against the favourite and Mike your horses and undefeated graded stakes winner. Yeah. It'll be interesting to see what coma can do in here for George Weaver tsa's three year old debut off a little bit of a layoff. So you know, he has things working against them here. It's a tough field for his first start back. He's never been in a to turn rates for his first time around two turns. And he's giving away some recent Sita some good horses in here. But this horse ran twice as a two year old, and he ran legitimately well and both of them. Let's look at the second of the of the two starts that grade. Three Nashua one turn mile. You got a nice trip in this race stalking. The pace. I liked the way he takes it over. And then I liked the way he kicks it in here when the runner up network effect comes for him in the stretch. He's a little green here. He started looks like he's trying to lug it a little bit. But we'll straighten himself out when he sees network effect calming. And he finds another gear and finishes. This race off. This source has a lot of talent. I think he might be square price in here when you consider all the other options, and the fact that he's off all those things I'm willing to get this source of chance in this race square. Price gets Lasix for the first time as well for his to turn debut and couldn't work out a nice trip sitting in the second flight. Matt your force lack stakes experience. But what he does have is victory around turns at Gulfstream Park that came in his most recent run this the eight global campaign. Let's go and take a look at that one right now, I recognize a lot of people probably look at it and say, well didn't really beat a heck of a lot not a lot of running going on behind him. I don't think local campaign has ever looked like a loser any point either of his two lifetime starts, and I can understand some reluctance to really buy into this horse considering regressed eight points on the buyer scale. But Dan, we talked about it in stakes previ- he paired up as raw time form ratings of one six those numbers alone are relatively close. I think the paired up numbers suggest a forward move is coming here. And he's another one that's going to be probably pretty close to double digit odds. I wanna give the number one code von or one more chance for trainers should mcgahey. We talk about how Bill mutt? Rarely wins with first time starter and shut doesn't win too often with them either. But code of honor was the debut winner at Saratoga last summer. And then he made his second start in the grade one champagne, and we break from the gate in the champagne, I watch code of honor go right to his nose right there. And that I think compromised. His chances just a little bit. We'll pick up the tape in a bit as they turn into the stretch. And you'll see the code of honor is very very wide swinging into the lane. This is a lot to ask for a horse stretching out a quarter of a mile face in winners for the first time and start number two and you rally solidly to finish second behind favored complexity after this race code of honor had some issues he missed a start in the Breeders Cup juvenile. He missed a start in the rim sin, and he made his three year old debut with very disappointing performance in the mutual. Macho man stakes my opinion of that race is that he was under trained for that race that shook did not have him ready to roll he has been working bullets over the pace and park surface leading up to the fountain of youth. He draws great inside post position. And I'm hoping that John Velazquez can work at a trip in a race where there is a lot of pace I'll go with Kotova honor. He's six to one of the morning line and the fountain of youth to learn more about some of the pedigrees of the horses running in the fountain of youth. We've got Nicole Rousseau's pedigree pick, and then we'll head on over to Craig McAliskey of time for you. US? He's got a paste projector for the Honey FOX stakes on the fountain of youth undercard. Hey, everyone Nicole Russo here for out of the gate ready to take a closer look at the fountain of youth. Here's the field for the race set for Saturday at Gulfstream Park. It offers fifty Kentucky Derby points to the winner. And it's a chance for a few previous graded stakes winners signalman and Vico medicate moving forward. But it also represents a chance for hidden scroll and global campaign to take their first step up to the graded level. Both are coming off. Impressive wins at Gulfstream. Both are regally bread colts with families that will suggest that they would relish more distance. Let's take a closer look at each of them. I will watch hidden scroll as you roll through the stretch on route two fourteen length win in his one mile debut. Here's an eye popping one. Oh, four buyer. Now. He's by classic place hard, spun Sayer of champion and alaba-. Emma, winner questing would Morial winner wicked strong and Gold Cup winner hard aces. He's from a deep John not female family that can also route his second dam is great while winter toy Montag at this is the extended family of multiple grade one winner site seek multiple grade one winner Tate's creek European champion and French one thousand Guineas winner special duty Breeders Cup mile winner expert, I and others. Now, we'll take a closer look at global campaign remaining, unbeaten in two starts with an allowance. Optional win at Gulfstream. He's by classic winner and classic sire kirwin intern by another multiple classic siren. Smart strike kirwin has produced a winner of a triple crown race or a coal who is placed in one of those races from each of his crops, thus far global campaign stamina further bolstered by his female family. He's out of an AP indie mayor whose first two foals were. Sonic mule. A stakes winner at a mile and multiple grade. One winner bolt door who could win around two turns. And who was second in the Santa Anita derby last year to none other than eventual triple crown winner justify the fountain of youth, one of several graded stakes and Saturdays busy program at Gulfstream Park. We're taking you through all of the action out of the gate and up next. We'll get you over to Craig for a closer look at how to use the time for the US pace projector. Hi, this is Craig mccaskey for time for MU s for this week's edition about at the gate today. I'm going to take a look at the Greek three Honey FOX it's being run at Gulfstream Park is the eleventh race on Saturday. And the reason it stuck out to me is that we have it highlighted as a race likely to have a fast pace, I do like to pick a race up. That has some kind of mention of peace projector, and you can notice on our preview page that I highlighted some of the horses that we expect it contend for the lead net lead to this label. We have horseless that as a leader. Although interestingly enough that horses not shown in front in our face projector, mostly because she just hasn't run fast enough, but there's also four other trackers which are horses like to be on or near the front in this case, we have valid Victorian listed as a tracker shown on a clearer lead. And you'll see from reprieve piece, which we're going to look at after we take a quick closer look at the pace for Jek. They're just why that is. Here's a closer. Look at the peace projector. A UNC valedictorian is shown in front. This is just a more expanded view sometimes some horses. Oh, get cut off from that. Smaller version, if you'll see notes if there are any like, if a horse was Ed blinkers, or if there was a European Chipper who hadn't run here, maybe not shown in the face for decker. And it would tell us why. So this is where you would see it. When you see this blown up version. Let's take a look about the Taurean. We did have said as a tracker and looking at the PP juke and see why she's won three of her last five starts on all turf. She's won twice wire-to-wire, which is also shown that the mention where she can reach just off the pace and win. So we don't want to call her speed horse or leader. But given the velocity she shown she's a worse week spec to be in front, and I also think despite the fast paced exited nation that she's going to run pretty well in here. She shown can handle a fast pace if she gets clear and still run. Well, she showed his able to set a slow pace last time. Met's is indicated by those fractions with our speed fingers are really consistency. Roy runs in the upper mid one teens so solid contender ear. She's not going to be my selection as we'll see soon. But I do think she will run well next. I wanna take a look at the morning lights savored odds, Bella vase, and you know, eating cheese one two zero s three her speed figures are similar I just I just don't think she's all that fast. She's moving up little bit in competition to the horse that I am going to eventually inches tepid three to one morning line favorite. I actually don't think she's going to go off the favourite. Do wanna mention one other thing with her is that you'll see I highlighted that the race to back was over good track. There's a new time formula's feature where we tell you just how firm we think the track was on a scale of one that tan, and they she didn't run quite as well as the other are Osler. She was beaten four. Uh three and a half Wentz in fourth. I could've easily been that the fast pace, which we have highlighted in red. But we also think maybe she didn't handle the the softer turf as well. Another horse the third choice on the morning line at four two one is don't Chailly, and she's course, if you just spoke at her speed fingers, she solid enough. She always seems the runner run of ratios hit the board each of the six starts, and I'm showing here and all of the dirt was a little bit of her rushing speed figure west, but on the turf, they're all between one nine one fifteen so solid effort. But I just don't think that's going to be good enough to get it. Get it done in here. And again, I'm not a big fan of this morning line because I'm gonna move onto the horse that I do thanks gonna win and for lack of knowing how to pronounce it perfectly. I'm just gonna car precious ahead. It's. Little bit tough to pronounce didn't have time to look it up. But she is the two horse in here. She runs for Chad Brown, you know, the premier turf trainer in the country. It's not at one of the premier trainers in the country period. And she just trying to huge one twenty six figure to race where we do think. There's some 'patio has by far the best time for US late speed rating, which you can see on that preview page again, I cut that part off on the individual PP's, but it's also shown in our product as well for each other. She can see him. But I liked to compare them on the preview page or you can see them all at one glance of the one node. I won't make yours notice that race reading right next to the Saratoga. August fourth rates rating was a one twenty but we have a little owed there. And that's what we call one of our question Mark codes where we don't have complete confidence in the speed figure in this case, the ohm means it was the only race. I was the only turf Reese run a territory that day on the end or surface. Other may have been one on the. Outer I didn't look we treat those two different courses. So it was the only race run on the enter in those cases what I like to do is. I click on the top three. You sit union won the race. In our past performance is click on that it'll open up the chart. I when I do open up that chart, I take a look and see how the worse is done. If they come back and back up that figure and a quick look at the chart here shows that the horses have they've all run as good or better, or at least very similar as third police horse had a slight regression. But the the winner has come back the run to Grace's you can excellent scroll through the figures in Seattle at all our next to that one twenty two year, look even further into the future. But despite that designation it was the only turf receipts figures of held up. Well, and I have no problem thinking that precious here is a standout. I don't think we're going to get anywhere near that seven the two morning line. I'd be surprised if she's not less than two one. I shall pry be in the three to maybe even seven the five range. With this is a horse. I'm gonna go Nin on heavily in both horizontal verticals. I'm gonna single or I'm going to keep her in vertical bets and looked to make a score. Elsewhere in Olympic get some other horses that I got underneath. So that does it for this week for time formula out of the gate, OPN joy that look at the Honey FOX and I'll be back next week with a new race. Are you course, player looking to raise your game for over a hundred and twenty years expert handicappers have relied on daily racing form. As there must have source for news and data, featuring exclusive buyer, speak figure time formula's paste and integrated replay DEA ref formulator is the most powerful handicapping tool on the market today us what the pros us go to dot com slash formulator and Hendrik O D R f- TV to get your first card free DR F dot com. Raise your game. Welcome back to add to the gate. Let's throw up the field for the Devonian. Dale stakes Carter's race number twelve at Gulfstream on Saturday. This a one turn mile. It is a great to for two hundred thousand dollars. You are two to five morning line. Favorite is twenty eighteen two year old filly champion. Jay, walk for expanded stakes previews of all the graded stakes races at Gulfstream this weekend and lots lots more head on over to video dot dot com. Or the daily racing form you to channel Mike, obviously, the story of this race is Jay walk. Let's talk a little bit about the second choice on the morning line. The number seven, high regard graded stakes placed in her own, right. Yeah. Not not too bad this Bill. She's sort of was coming along and stages as a two year, we're gonna show a replay of an allowance race at Keeneland. This is right off of her maiden. When did come in a one turn mile Churchill, this is her first art after that to turn mile? Can you see your sort of over a tough spot there behind horses? She can't get clear and she's going to have to. Course after the winner is already got momentum and going by. So I think she actually ran okay in this race exiting this spot. She was stakes place in the rags-to-riches. She ran okay. And the Goldenrod greatest things at the end of the year race. It did not have any at all. If he gets a better setup here shouldn't get a piece of us. But she liked the rest of the Phillies in this race are going to have to have a nail Don tight to be jaywalk did so much in such a short amount of time last year mad. I mean four starts. She went from a five furlong maiden winner at parks to a Breeders Cup champion. Guess you're in five times last year five different tracks. And she'll kick things off your and twenty nine thousand nine at another tricks of six tracks six races. Let's go back to the Breeders Cup. She went out there and put the boots to pretty well. I suppose. Subpar field that you have a couple of good horses that have come back and done some good things. Bell of FINA came back and won a graded stakes race was a ninety five and Seren Getty. Empress? She won her stakes race with ninety one. I gotta be honest with you guys. I think she's the controlling speed in here should breaking from the rail. I know this is a means to an end, but I couldn't get to cute. I think she's too much for this field. I go with Matt on this. She just towers over this base. I did as a two year old. We'll say let's maybe you don't wanna take shot against this at the time to get right off the lineup breaking from the rail. But to mention looks good for these orces, she might have a pace advantages. Well, it seems like all the stars are aligning for the very talented. Jay walk. I don't want to have too much money in against her. But I will take a little stab with the number six, bold script. It's worth mentioning the quality work that this Philly did on turf and synthetic last year at Woodbine. She was third in the grade one that tell Talamo on the grass and inner synthetic debut. Most recent start the Princess Elizabeth stakes. She destroyed this field going mile in a sixteenth. She turns into the. Taken over this thing, and Gary Buluan shea is going to ride or with the utmost confidence she draws away to win by almost eight lengths. It's a career-best eighty three Beyer speed figure. I just wish this Philly had more dirt pedigree. She's by spice down who, of course, can get you a dirt runner, but when you look at the female family, it is all turf and synthetic what allays my fears somewhat is that bold script has worked several bullets over the palm meadows dirt training track. Maybe bold script is ready to catch the favourite off the layoff. She's going to be a much better price. But just certainly got to use the big favourite as an a in any kind of multiple race. Wagers small step for me with bold script in the Devonian. Dale will move to the dirt to the turf the McDermott looks like a fantastic bedding race. Salty older turf forces go eleven furlongs in the MAC Dermott stakes at Gulfstream on Saturday. Let's throw up the field parades, number fourteen two hundred thousand dollars purse for expanded stakes previews of all the graded races at Gulfstream on Saturday, plus lots lots more head on over to video DR dot com. Or the daily racing form YouTube channel, we'll have a mall uploaded by Friday afternoon. Matt Zulu alpha has just merged as a consistently good turf runner and his tactical. Speed allows them to get great trips. It seems every time you runs and you wanna talk about a great trip. This is how you draw up for turf race. This is the dream situation. Let's go back to the McKnight Andy CAPP and his most recent start going to say he's those pink. Silks ortiz. Got the mount you're saving ground. You're sitting in the pocket. You tip out to the two path. Everything is opens wide and you split through. We'll get one hundred Riley and a little bit on the outside. But I mean you wanna. About the perfect scenario for a turf trip. It's exactly what this horse got. Now. I think you can look at that one or two ways and say, you're right. He's a nice horse. It usually works out those kind of trips that same time at a short price. I don't know that I wanna gamble on the fact that everything may or may not work out. Again, exactly the way it didn't make night. I think he's a very logical runner. I wanna take a little shot against him. No zoo ALPHA's hot horse is a sharp horse. But you could argue Mike that on his very best day channel maker is the best horse. Yeah. I think it's pretty clear when you go through this race top to bottom that if channel maker shows up runs his best race in this by maybe. Well, maybe won't. But if he does he's just going to be really hard to be in this race. I'm willing to give him excuses for his last two starts. We're going to go back three starts on his car. This is the great one. Joe Hurst classic bell park. He got right through the lead in this race. He turned away challenger around the second turn of this race. And I was gonna turn away another challenge from Robert Bruce here in the stretchy stays strongly. He's much the best in this race with a one away Beyer speed figure, I know post eleven guys, maybe it'll. Compromise chances a little bit. But I like the Joel Rosario back up or the source Joel was largely responsible for getting more involved early last summer. I think it led to dramatic improvement for him. And I think even with post eleven Joe is going to make sure he gets forward this time. And to me he's just the best source on the race. If he shows up excuses in his last two races wicked speed duel in the Breeders Cup Turf. Just didn't get anywhere near as customary and comfortable spot near the early lead last time out in the Pegasus turf. Getting back to hunter O'Reilly, Matt. And you and I both liked the blast time despite the long layoff. He was the first time gelding, and to be honest that was very proud with the way he ran I thought he really well too. When you consider this off of such a long lay-off very very testing turf. Course, they're down at Gulfstream that Davor yielding. And then we're gonna throw up the replay. And you can see how much ground he's giving up in the grand scheme. He's on the floor outside in again considering he'd been gone for such a long time. This is far from a disgraceful effort from this horse. I think he's only going to take a step forward. Here. You're going to get firm going here on Saturday afternoon down at Gulfstream. I don't know, Dan. I think I have to obligated to give them another chance of double digits. I'm with you. I'm gonna go with hundred Riley is well and a little bit concerned about the possibility of firm turf because this is a horse that has had foot problems in his career. And maybe that yielding turf course actually worked to his favor last time out, but that was his first race off the long layoff as we mentioned his first race as gelding. And the last time you went second off the layoff for Jimmy toner here into one. Oh, three Beyer speed figure. He's the kind of horse than his race luck and paste dependent. Let's hope he gets a trip under Tyler gaffe Alina. Here's a good price on the morning line hunter O'Reilly at ten to one. And I'll give him a chance as he makes his second start of the form cycle. J K Jonathan Kinchen's play the day. He's got a pick four wager at Gulfstream. And then David our of time form US looks at three value plays on Saturdays Gulfstream card. Let's get to those segments right now. Hey, everybody. Welcome to Jake as play of the day derby season upon us the fountain of youth next couple weeks, we typically derby, then we're we're gonna act would've no glum saying Nita, very exciting. Time of the year where these three year olds starved to to remind us of the possibilities of what what can happen with a horse like American pharaoh or justify or even your favorite derby win that didn't happen to win. A triple crown. We're gonna play a pick for at Gulfstream Park. They got a ton of steaks. I think they have nine graded stakes on Saturday. We're going to play the late pick for it's a race starting and race eleven the Honey FOX this is called my take what the defense gives you play. Now. Look a lot of people make fun of me for the chalk that I picked. But it's a real thing that I do I find favorites that I can lean on and sequences, and I try to Hamer those sequences listened to the podcast we often say try to crush their souls. I'm gonna try to do that. And this sequence here with two singles and then two races. Where I'm only gonna use to horses and the first leg I'm going to single the one presi use to Horford for Chad Brown. He had first time he had the horse ran in Saratoga and the soft. She ran really well that day was beaten by looney who is a is one of the more talented runners and Chad Brown's turf born, and she was right there with her on a soft ground coming in off quite a layoff two hundred ten days last three works have been on the turf course, Chad doesn't usually bring them over there short. This one shown a ton of talent on that. Soft course running a figure that none of these other horses are really getting close to Torah in terms of time for us. I'm going to start with a single there. She seven to two on the morning line. However, I don't believe she'll be seven to two in the pick four sequence. And I don't even think she'll be seventy two in the wind pool. Going onto the next race. I'm not gonna waste much your time here and the devoted Dale. I'm is cold. Jay walk. I think she's the best three year old filly in the country. She showed that Breeders Cup day. And I think she'll show it again here as she gets ready for her truck trail to the. Kentucky oaks onto the thirteenth race of us to horses. Here code of honor is not one of them. I get maybe some people thought the horse had an excuse last time. I thought the horse ran too bad to to really lean on here at what should come down from six to one. I think I only need to horses but coma the five horse horse for George. Weaver ran really well some races in New York. I think that horses sitting on a big race and that hidden scroll, I get it. The flashy number was on on a sloppy racetrack. But the thing that I'm most impressed when it comes to that horse is that it was Bill Maher I out from the rail showing speed wire-to-wire that shows a lot of talent that's not something that you normally see from from Bill Maher horses. I think hidden scrolls, the real deal, he might not be your derby winner. I do think he's your fountain of youth winter going onto race fourteen. The last leg mile and three eighths on the turf, I always looked to see where Mike maker has one in here. And he does have one ensue alpha who ran well last time, I'm gonna use zoo alpha, and then I'm gonna use channel maker who's a horse that I've. Picked some big grade ones on these kind of turf marathons so to not use them in this spot might be a little bit silly, obviously had an excuse with kind of a weird ride. And then also the yielding surface that showed up on Pegasus World Cup day. Those the only two I need here. Look, I'm going to try to have this depending on your budget. I'm gonna try to have a ten dollar pick four twenty five dollar pick four a fifty dollar pick four I'm going to try to hammer the sequence right here in what I think is very straightforward sequence. There's no reason to really reach outside the box to me the favorites are the types that you can lean on good luck. See an actually. Hi, everyone. I'm David Arrigoni. But this week's time formula spotlight. There's a smorgasbord of excellent stakes races on Saturday at Gulfstream Park. Found of youth is the highlight of the entire card, but I want to take a look at three of the undercard stakes races starting with the fifth race the Canadian turf and the number three horse holiday. Stone is a long shot in this race that I think is really worthy of consideration. Breaking the rules is going to be a big favorite in this race coming off to visually. Impressive scores. One Gulfstream Park and one at Belmont Park, but in his turf debut, he was actually defeated by holiday stone way back in September at Saratoga of last year. Holiday stone read well that day earning a one twenty three time formula speed figure a repeat of that number would make him very competitive against this field. And I don't think breaking the rules is a horse that necessarily has to win this race as he stepped up in class. It's not as if speed figures make him any kind of horse that has a huge edge on this field and holiday stone has run well enough to win stakes races at this level in the past. And his recent efforts are a little bit. Better than they seem. He was against the pace to back. And then last time if you watch that trip, it's unfortunate, but the chart caller just completely missed the trouble that he had in that simple. Comet outrun inside. This is a horse that was down on the rail coming to the top of the stretch in a race. The completely collapsing ahead of him. He ended up in behind a few speed horses. Just going nowhere the horses did well in that L pro or making wide moves closing down the center of the track and holiday stone. Just got robbed of all his momentum. While he was studying down inside the late stages. He never got a chance to run that day. He's much better than that. And I think the pay situation of this race is going to make him much more dangerous because the time formulas pays projector is predicting a situation favoring runners front, and he's predicted to be in a solid stock and position. So I think holidays is an interesting horse to use as an alternative to breaking the rules, especially to get around that eight to one morning line price moving onto the seventh race in the very one. I wanna take a shot at the number one horse dance land this horse again that just had a terrible trip last time. Charcoal. Didn't miss this one. She was legitimately steadied at multiple points. In the stretch drive last time, John Velasco is just seem to by chance. Make all the wrong moves coming into the quarter pole on this horse. She was inside ridden into traffic. He tried to go outside with her. She encountered traffic again went back inside at the eighth coal. And there's just nowhere for her to run. He really didn't get a chance to write her out to the finish. And she finished with way more left in the tank than he would have liked dance. Land handles the my own sixteenth distance. I think that's actually really perfect for her. She ran well to back against solid graded stakes company in the Long Island handicap that mile three eighths if anything was a little bit far for her. I think she's going to enjoy the cutback to a my own three sixteenths. And I just don't think there's anybody that former in this race because holy Halina who's the morning line favorite. She's a bit inconsistent at times. I don't think she has to win this race. And tricky escape, you know, she's very dangerous. It listed stakes races grade three types, which this is. But I mean, she's really does have a ceiling. And I think dance land is should mcgahey horse. Classic type of you know. Horse that he has that improves over time improves with age. And I think she can take another step forward in this very one six to one on the morning line seems like a fair price on this horse. Finally in the fourteenth race the race. After the interview the mcdiarmid I wanna take a shot with a bomb in this race, the number three or smell Mitch. I know is recent performances and his recent speed figures just make him look a little too slow but going back his Woodbine efforts at the end of twenty eight and he was in a bunch of slow paced races racist that just played out in a fashion that really didn't allow him to use his strength. And I think his efforts in all of those races are just not quite as bad as they seem at one time. This was a horse that was certainly classy enough to stack up against a field like this. I mean, there was a time back in two thousand seventeen when he was running time formula speed figures of one thirty and above those numbers would crush this field. Now, the question is can you transfer that Senic synthetic form to Turkey and last time out you might say, oh, well, he only got a one ten time from your speed and figure that's not good enough. Well, that was that was on the short side for him. He was far back in the early. And he was just finishing like a freight train through the stretch she was passing horses at a very high rate. It's not like it was a race that fell apart or anything like that. Even though the time for US pays figures are color coded red. It's not a race that collapsed at the end and moment was just closing much faster than anybody else at the end of that race while having to weave through traffic. I was really impressed by the impressed. Just by the visual for him from visual standpoint, as he was closing that day in galloped out so strongly he's going to have no trouble stretching out to the mile three eighths because he's one as far as a mile three quarters on this track and just looking through his main competitors in this race channel maker who's going to be the favorite. I know. He's the class of the field, and he will win if he gets back his best performances from thousand eighteen but he's been somewhat fortunate in his big wins. And I just don't think channel maker is necessarily at the same place that he was back in two thousand eighteen and he's a little bit hard for me to take off that dole effort in the Pegasus turf invitational last time, and then the number six through the wealth of another one that's likely to take money. He got an off. Awesome trip last time in the McKnight under a rod Ortiz just got through at the right time in a race. That was about to fall apart. Got the jump on his main rivals. And I'm not sure that I really like him getting back on a firm, turf course, his horse that's appreciated some given the ground in the past. And I think both of these favorites are Volna Rable. Mel Mitch is getting a writer. Switch to have your Castellano. He's going to be a big price in this race. And I think he's going to make a big run the leaders late and can get into the top three. I'll use them to win. But I also wanna use this horse inexact as and trifecta so that three horses that may offer some value on Gulfstream Saturday card Nelson. It back to the studio. Time for our best bet segment here on out of the gate. Great racing Gulfstream on Saturday. Matt where you going? I'm going to go stream race number five. It's the Canadian turf at a mile on grass. Obviously, this may not be the most likely winner of the race. But the short comment line for the number three holiday stone little bit on the uncharitable side. The short comments is out run inside. Let's throw up the tape. You tell me if this is out run inside he's the number two right now. And it looks like he's ready to roll beneath our meal, he's down on the inside. The problem is again, we talk about it in turf racing. All the time you're at the mercy of patient trip. Well, the pace was there for him to run at the problem is the trip just didn't develop because at this point everyone else is coming on the far outside. They've got a full head of steam and this horse holiday stone is buried inside horses. And he's going to end up almost dead. Last shuffled back. He never any points is allowed to get going. And I just think that this race is considerably better than it looks. I think there were also three other races prior to that you can make excuses for. You go through all those your left for the pretty big effort at Saratoga within ninety six by he's eight one on the line. He was not outrun inside. He's just never had a chance to run. That's why you watch races. Folks. He wasn't outrun inside. Mike, look like one of those Meadowlands three hole trips that didn't work out where you going with your best bet. Yeah. I'm going to upstream as well. Ray sevens. The very one grade three on the turf mile and three sixteenths. I like one dance land typical runner from this bar and just sort of getting better with racing dance land for showing mcgahee, I like the campaign. She put together last year as a four year old. She ran well on the Long Island. I thought to starts back closing ground throughout this is her next start her most recent start down at Gulfstream Park. We're going to look at the replay. Now, this is another sort of similar to match source was buried around the second turn behind doors as you can see Johnny v and stretch, you just can't get anywhere for her to run and she will wind up last from here. She doesn't have any chance. I think she's better than she looks on paper. I think this is a good distance for her. And at the end of the day. This is just a kind of race where I don't really like to favorite. I think she's as good as any of them with the. I trip I think she can win. I'll go to Gulfstream to replace as well recently before is the grade three Palm Beach for three year olds on the grass, and I'm hoping that the number six louder than bombs can turn the tables on the number five a threat of blue they faced each other earlier last month in the dania beach steaks, and we'll turn into the stretch of that race the threat of blue just got absolutely loose. That day is the favourite letter bombs is kicking down towards the inside. You could see the puck. Lopez wants to try to angle out three wide. And that's just not there. He's going to have to tap on the brakes ever so slightly now he's going to come through down towards the inside. He probably doesn't catch threat of blue iffy gets through with the perfect trip. But I thought all all the horse ran well to be second. This time around threat of blue his even money in the morning line. And they're just might be a little bit more pace to keep that horse company on the front end. I'm hoping that louder than bombs would benefit from a faster pace this time around he's three to one on the morning line. And he switches to I read or TS June. We thank you for watching out of the gate this week. And we urge you to follow all of TV's offerings. Please follow on social media at D R F video and for the latest news and notes from America's turf authority daily racing form. Please follow on Twitter at Diarra f- inside post. That's.

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