TimeformUS Forecast | Episode 70 | April 9, 2021


Hi everyone welcome to the april ninth edition of the time formulas forecast. I'm david arrogant. I'll be joined in just a moment by my co host. Craig makovsky this week on the podcast. The focuses on those final kentucky derby preps as the derby trail winds down. after saturday. we'll have the field basically set for the kentucky. Derby as far as points qualification goes. We'll see if there are any defections in the upcoming weeks but we should have the final additions to the race. Likely coming from the arkansas derby. That's the major point. Prep with one hundred points going to the winner of that race. But there's also the lexington stakes on saturday at keeneland. That's the far more interesting race. Ra- handicapping standpoint though less likely to produce ended kentucky derby starters but we've got some really intriguing under cards on both of those Race tracks with oakland offering the oaklawn mile as well as the count fleet. We'll talk about both of those races. In addition to the arkansas derby and then at keeneland on the lexington undercard they're also reading the sprint race for the affiliate mayors which is the giant's causeway as the grade one jenny wiley a small but select field of runners fillies and mares going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf but craig. The focuses on those two kentucky derby. Perhaps the arkansas derby probably not so interesting for my handicapping standpoint. But i take the lexington is a really fascinating race. Yeah i think that's one of the better. Betting races on the cards are so many different directions. Gca go of different angles. She could play in there so Yeah that's one of the favorites. It's i'm glad to see it because a couple of the reece's came up unusually disappointing for king. We usually get a lot pretty much. Always big fields for their stakes races. But the lexington certainly didn't disappoint. Well we'll get to keeneland and a little bit but let's start things off in arkansas at oaklawn with three races all stakes from that car. We're going to begin with race nine. That is the oakland mile going one mile on the main track there. And we've got a pretty intriguing field of runners with a lot of quality drawn towards the center of the pack beginning with the number six by my standards. Who's the slight favourite on the morning. Line now no doubt by my standards is the classiest horse in this race. Having won the grade two allie sheba last year finished second in the grade one whitney but he ended his twenty twenty campaign on a bit of a sour note. So i think there are some questions about what kind of form he's coming back off the layoff. Yeah i would agree with that. I mean it's a big field nine. There's a fast pace Predicted on the pace projector. And it's hard to argue with that when you look at the pcp's just at a quick glance to see horses like wells by you and blackberry wine who basically only have one way to go in really when you look through the entire field. There's no true closers in here. They're all horses that have some speed or at least good tactical speed and i think. That's a big problem for blackberry wine. He's a horse you show not. I mean not for pipe very behind for by my standards. He's actually shown dead last by quite a bit on the pace projector and he's a horse. Ooh just he can't run that way. I we seen him try in a couple of his bigger efforts and he just gave it up through the lane in the car and the classic last year and he was a horse. Both of us had a lot of question marks about last year because he A lot of his reputation was made in racist with very slow pace where he was able to sit close in finish. And i think that's a problem here i. It wouldn't shock me if he won. Because i mean he does have the best speed figures in the field when he runs his races. But i'm certainly going to try to beat him. I think he's gonna get back quite a bit more than that. Five to to to be honest. I wouldn't be surprised. Fees in the seventy five rain. So i'm gonna look elsewhere the divorce i eventually landed on his actually only the second choice on the morning on. But i have my doubts about that. I went with rushie and for me. It's or julia a jockey. Bet as i mentioned there are any real closures in this race. Rushie isn't particularly one. Either though he wins from he has one from off the pace. It's not like he's coming from the clouds. But i just think joel rosario rides these racist perfectly when the piece is going to be fast. I think russia will be able to adapt. I do think you'll be more than three to one morning. I see other horses taken more money than him including blackberry wine wells by by you. So we'll see how the bedding goes in that can always sway things but in a wide open race. I i'm gonna take a horse. It's coming from office. Yeah we'll see. How much of an effect drivers joel rosario has. Because it seems like he's winning basically every stakes around the country during twenty twenty one so far and he is writing russia in this race. That could drive down his price a little bit though. Just based on the two horses craig. I would tend to agree with you that by my standards just based on reputation is likely to take a bit more money in here we see this race very similarly. I'm not surprised. I like russia as well. He ran well to win. That pat day mile last year at this distance. That was around. One turn this is a to turn race. But he's handled to turns just fine. The past even going longer distances. That might really not be his preferred trip and he was off. The board lasted out in that breeders cup mile but watching back that race. I think he ran a lot better than that. Seventh-place finish would indicate because there was a rough run into the first heard. He was squeezed back a little bit as a horse's tried to get over from the outside. But that short run into the clubhouse turn and he was probably farther back that he wanted to be in that race but he launched a wide run coming around the far turn and breeders cup mile keeneland race. That is run for the most part around. There's very few very little straightaway in that race. And he lost a lot of ground coming around the turn in that race was actually a finishing on decently at the end there so i just think he's a horse. That really could take step forward as a four year old. And while mike mccarthy doesn't have the greatest numbers coming off layoffs just based on this horses worked at it seems like he's got him cranked up for this race just going back to march twentieth. That forty six flatwork. That was a bullet santa anita that was in company with his top older mayor. Cece and it looked like russia was going a little better than her in that workout on c. is very good Workhorse in her own. Right so i just think rusty looks like he's coming into this race ready to run and this seems like the right kind of spot for him to get a favorable trip so i landed on russia as well as for the others. I mean i think blackberry wide is a horse that you have to consider just based on how well he ran at this distance last time as you were pointing out. I think there's a lot more pace in this race and that could create some problems for blackberry wine but when he matched up against wells by the louisiana stakes earlier in the year. wells. By you let blackberry wine ghulam that set the peso if a similar scenario plays out here. I think blackberry wine can be dangerous. But he's a horse. That really is most effective. When he's on the lead. Yeah and he would be my second pick in here. If he was five the one morning line i might even consider him. I don't think there was anything fluky about that. Big one twenty five speed. Figari rang last time at the same distance. In course okay. No problem with him at all. I just think it's a race. I have to take a shot against by my standards. Because i seem to always be against this core horse because of all the great trips got last year in the end he you know he i just don't think he he's really up against it because i think the pace project their nails it. I don't know if it'll be deadly asked. Show just think it shows. It's a real problem for him that he could find himself in mid pack and that's just not what he likes to do. Yeah just one more note on by my stand retweeted and really touch upon. I agree with everything you said. Craig and i will also note that the comment line in his last race blocked upper and altered out if you didn't watch the race. I think some people might assume from that that he had a bad trip. He didn't have a bad trip. Gabriel's has got him into a good spot. He was a little off the rails out but he had every chance to be effective in that race and was just behind horses because he was backing up in the stretch. So i just thought that was kind of a poor effort from him and he'll have to do a lot better he could because he's got back races at a short price like you. I'm just a little skeptical moving onto the eleventh race at oak lawn. That is the grade. Three count fleet sprint handicap. And we've got a rematch of the hot springs as well as a rematch of the breeder's cup sprint. Actually the one to four finishers from last year's breeder's cup sprint are all in this race but the two main players are obviously the horses that around the exact in both of those races those are last year sprint champion whitmore as well as ceesay rocket who turn the tables on him last time in the hot springs and we're gonna see what kind of trips each of them work out here because there is plenty of pace in this race in both of these horses are proficient coming from off the pace last time whitmore made the first move and got the jump on ceesay rock and it turned out that was just a race where the last move was the most successful. I wonder if the same thing will play out this time because ceesay rocket just does seem like a naturally faster. Horse than whitmore yeah. I think it's an interesting call. I it's a good field of seven. There's no label and the pace projector but it was really close. I was surprised when i saw horses like no parole. Strike power in empire of gold over. Who led the breeders cup after a half mile last year but it just barely missed. So i think the piece is going to be so edin unfortunately or depending how you look at it but as a better unfortunately it sets it up for the two favorites pretty clearly in whitmore and ceesay rocket. I think it's their race the lose and it's just gonna come down to which of the two you like a personally i. I'm going to give the slight edge. The cd rocket mitch this based on the post positions. I think he can sit outside and just kind of track. What's going on and and move forward if he needs to. But i just envisioned sim or trips. Last time i went more is drawn. Down inside if he waits. It's always possible. He's gonna get shuffled back with all the speed and here. So i just think the post gives. Cd rocket a enough of nejib. I'll make my top pick in here. If the posts were reversed. I let picks. Yeah i think it's a close call between these two was well. I do think they're the two most likely winners in this race. I actually gave the slight edge to whitmore. Seems like a horse to me. That is very comfortable running inside of horses. Actually based on some of his big wins. That's is preferred trip to make that inside out move so i like that. He's drawn inside in this race. And i just feel like the pace. Projector is going to play out the way that it looks with cece rocket as long as he breaks better this time because he was a little slowly away in hot springs. I think he'll be in front of whitmore early. And i would anticipate that this time with is going to be the one making the last move and that could be the successful move once again in this count fleet so i'm going to give the slight edge to whitmore assuming that they're very similar prices as for the others. I mean empire of gold is a little bit interesting but he's coming back off a long layoff out of that breeders cup where he did run really well. He led the field amid stretch and he did kind of fall apart in the final furlong. But that's a race. That was coming apart a little bit at the end and as a three year old last year he just a really good. At the end of the season it turns out that that phoenix performance was no fluke because he backed it up once again in the breeders cup. I don't really know too much about this trainer and how he does come back off. The stats are are mediocre at best. But this was the worst that really came around at the end of last year. So i wouldn't be surprised if he could take another step forward as a four year old. I mean he'd be the only one that i would consider a potential upset. But i do think that the two favorites are more likely winners of this race. Yeah i agree with you on empire gold. I think he's just speed of the speed even though we don't have shown up there him. And no perot why. I think those two will will really go at it early. And i think he's probably the better of the two based on what we've seen from no parole lately but in any case i think any of these speed horses are going to have a hard time holding off really quality closers like what more and cg racket i do want to ask you about those two other speed horses you briefly did touch upon no parole but also strike power. Who has plenty of early speed is in this race. And he's coming off a big performance whether you're in the one thousand time formula speed your last time actually a one twenty three final time number which was knocked down a little bit due to the slow pace. I mean they're both horses that are capable of running big figures when the wrap their best. But i just wonder if you have a take on if they're going to be knocked out by a by a quick pace. Yeah that's the way. I see it. I mean power. He's always done his best when things are go. His own. Way with bone fractions. We seen that way back to his maiden win and that's what he did in his last win and there aren't a whole lot of wins in between so his horse. You're usually runs well. But he just doesn't seem to get the job done unless he gets his way up front. And it's just really hard to envision that happening with two super high fast horses in no parole and empire of gold. yeah. I have very similar feelings about them. My watched each of their victories this year. No parole who wanna delta down stakes race back in february and power who won that allowance race in march and. I think those are racist. That are much less impressive. When you watch the replays then they might look on paper. Power got a big for that last race. But i think some of the horses that raced in behind him. Just they ve regressed since then not saying the figures rog races. It appears and no parole even though he won by three lengths says the one to ten favorite at delta downs. I'd advise your watch that race if you like it here because he had to work a lot harder than i would have liked to be vastly inferior field so i just feel like maybe. He's not the horse that he once was as a three year old. So for both of us. It's the favorites in the count. Fleet moving onto you. The arkansas derby grade one feature race at oakland on saturday the final derby. Prep taking place in arkansas this year and the final dirty prep. It's taking place in the country before the kentucky derby on the first saturday in may and we're gonna have heavy favourite in this spot in concert tour. This race is basically just a rematch of the rebel as five horses. Coming out of the rebel are five of the six runners in this race and concert toward just dusted the last time and as long as it gets the extra sixteenth of a mile. He's going to be pretty tougher. This field to handle watching that race attardo imagine he wouldn't have got the extra sixteenth of a mile. I mean he was still moving away from the field at that point so for me. It's a race on properly. Just gonna watch. I'm not going to try to be concert tour in here. He just looks too good. I i know some people have tried to make a case for caddo river saying he got a bad ride last time and it. And i mean i guess. I can't argue with that. I'm a guy who likes aggressive tactics and did kind. See the lead. But i just don't see how it would've made any difference if he went to the dodd concert door was just gonna sit office flank in put them away anyway in my opinion so i didn't think had that much a caddo river going into the rebels. So i'm not gonna make any excuses for him. Because the i just don't think he ran all that well Hoosier he's moving in the right direction for bob baffert but he seems more like a third string type about baffert horse not even second-string. It wouldn't shock me if he ran second. But there's no real value in in that opinion. either. So i'm just gonna watch try to evaluate concert tour and fully expect to win pretty easily. I think both things are true about. Caddo river i think he did resent the rating tactics a little bit last time. I also think he didn't run that well in the rebel. I mean he should have finished better in that race. Even after fighting the rider a little bit nearly going. And i'm not as convinced about him getting the mile and an eighth as i concert tour. I mean i think you can have questions about both of these horses. But cadeau rivers shown more natural speed and his races. And and i'm not so convinced that he's necessarily going to go on love island and eight so i just concert tour was so impressive. Last time i went on xp tv. And i watched some of his work. Since then. And i mean he's looked like a monster coming into this race his last workout on april third when he went to six furlongs one. Twelve and four. I took out the stop. Watch them coming into the stretch because it looked like he was flying. I got him coming home. The quarter through the lane and twenty two and one that worked out that that's just really moving for six furlong workout at the end of it and it just feels like this is probably going to win. I wonder if he wins this race. Really impressively what to make of moving onto the kentucky derby because he'll do so without a ton of seasoning having won some of the weakest prep races that we've seen just in terms of depth even if he runs faster speed figures. I don't think that beating up on horses like caddo river in hosmer and freedom fighter necessarily are going to prepare you to be successful in the kentucky derby but this works does have a ton of talent. Yeah it's gonna be interesting if assuming he does win. I think it's gonna come down to the speed figure. If fee runs a one twenty five from us and more importantly as far as the waiter and goes to one of five from buyer he could easily wind up being the favourite here. Just because i mean it's bob baffert. He's won a ton of derby's a fast number. But i still have some question. Marks gazette said the essence. Really face much yet. And you know we'll see it'll be interesting to see who actually finally makes it to the starting gate. We still have three home weeks. We've already started seeing some defections in greatest honor. So it's something. I try not to look too far ahead but i'm with you. Big performance urine. He could easily be favored company First saturday in yeah. I'll be very interested to see how that all plays out because concert tours. The horse that i was a little skeptical of earlier in the year. And i've kind of come around a little bit. I think he's actually does have plenty of talent but he's gotta run a big number in the arkansas derby to be considered one of the favorites for the kentucky derby and a few weeks. Let's move onto keeneland where we're also discuss three stakes races. The first of those is race eight. It's the giant's causeway going five and a half furlongs on the turf for the phillies and mayors and we're likely to have a favorite drawn town down towards the inside and the number one into mystic. Who has written by rod ortiz. Coming out for brendon walsh. this philly. During her four year old season ran really well against horse horse. Got store be lost a close decision to her over this course in the buffalo trace last year she actually surprisingly set the pace and the breeders cup turf sprint against the males didn't rumble nat race. But she's done fine since that just has to pretend credentials to be considered the horse to beaten this race yet. It's a race on the pace. Projector it's a big field attempt. But there's no label so mad a ton of speed in here and the three horse elza is shown on the on the front end with a clear lead so she would be the one a lot of times. I would gravitate towards but i just see a playing out the same as last time when she faced a in into mystic and she wasn't able to handle that despite having things our own way upfront into mystic draws inside again has plenty tactical speed gets iran ortiz. So for me. I think she's going to be really tough to beat in here. If i'm playing horizontal bets in here. I'm probably going to single in domestic because i just don't like anybody else in here. Besides zales ian. I think she'll have her number The other horse. I would may be consider would've been jakarta who draws far outside and has had some success in. These surf sprints but as a six year old. She's a whore. Sue me to me in our last couple tur- sprint seems like she's losing some early speed She did lead last time but that was in a to turn race sprint. She hasn't been an even though she did one it. They've win one of those a couple back at gulfstream park. I just think it's a bad sign when forces who were normally always on the lead suddenly can't make it then particularly from the far outside post. Yeah i mean. I have no real problem with intimate stick in this race other than the likely short price because i mean her form just is kind of obvious and she's got a rat ortiz on board so that just kind of translate into horse. That's likely to be over bet. But she is the most likely winner of this race and projects to get a very good trip in here. I just feel like it's not like she's running speed figures that make her all that formidable in here i mean. She ran a couple of one thirteen one over the winter. One last fall in this race that race at keeneland in october at those do make the horse to be. But it's not like she's got some huge beat figure advantage over this field where she deserves to be a really short price in this race. So i'm definitely using her. But i think that there are some other horses in this race that can offer value one of those that just kind of gets ignored that i think deserves a look in this race. Is the number eight of control. She's fifteen two one in the morning line. I don't know if she's going to go off at a price quite that high. But she's got some races the definitely put her in the mix She was beaten by intimate three times last year. All basically all three times that they met but she was never that far behind her and arguably the best race that she's run on the turf recently. Was that turf sprint against the males at sam houston back at the end of january where she wasn't that far behind horses like fast boat and karaoke. Tari i mean they're every bit as good as into mystic and change of control was competitive with them so i just feel like she's coming into this race potentially a good form and if the page does heat up on the front end i think she could be running late so i would use her at a price but the horse that i would make my top pick in this race. Just from value. Standpoint is the number two in good spirits She's a four year old. Who's just making her second. Start at twenty twenty one. She had shown some talent as a three year old last year. Racing route races finishing Getting minor awards behind courses like sharing and harvey slow goyal. She was competitive in those races. Like the regret the edgewood but just couldn't quite get the distance was failing at the end. Going a mile a mile and an eighth el sol turned her back to five and a half furlongs at the fairgrounds at the end of january. And i really liked that performance guests. She was facing an inferior field to what she meets here but she came wide off the turn and close that field down with a pretty impressive late kick like a horse that might have just be a more natural fit to these shorter races She obviously has run a faster speed thicker to be competitive here but as a maturing horse who just turned four. I think she's got a right to do it. And i'm hoping that she's just one that gets a little lost in the shuffle here in falls through the cracks in does go off at that six to one or maybe a little higher in this race so in good spirits my topic but also use intimacy. Take change of control while i'm not gonna argue with either those both good. I did points on both of those as towards the only thing i'm going to have is if you're bored. Take a look through the into mystic. Pp's in time for us you can scroll the lifetime. Gp's and she quite the journey. It's just something interesting. Further that the people who've listened to see cheese horseshoes one mixed races at low sal. She's running zia park at sunlen and she after starting a career out at saratoga. So it's quite a journey that you don't often see for a horse. Gathered is kinda funny. I asked the remember debut at saratoga. I think that was my first summer. Baking the morning lineup. There and i remember she was a horse. That was working well for todd pletcher and was touted. I think back down to like even money or odds on race and she lost. But it's funny to see now she's top turf sprinter for breaded. Walsh move onto that other three year old. Prep race for the kentucky derby. That's being run on saturday. That is the lexington and remains to be seen. Whether this race will actually generate any starters for the kentucky derby. I think there's just one that's a possibility that being the favourite proxy and while proxy is clearly the horse to beat in this race and is the sixty five favorite on the morning line. There are many ways to go. If you're looking for an alternative. And i think you do have to start the discussion with the trip that these horses are likely to get because there is a ton of speed signed on concentrated down towards the inside. Yeah there's week at sprinter stretching out here. We got horses coming in. Medan wins and then we have proxy. As you mentioned who's been running in graded stakes races. I think he ran in all three of the louisiana perhaps and ran pretty well when those i assume he's in this race trying to to get points to make sure he makes derby field. But i gotta tell you. I'm not all that excited about him. I mean he. He's a decent enough force. But i don't like to turn back. He's turning back a full furlong in here. He's a horse. Who has done his best running up near the front. And as you mentioned. There's a ton of other speed and here so i'm going to try to beat proxy. Maybe i'm a little crazy in here but just looking at some of the other horses. We we have swiftsure. Who's coming out of what's been basically a monster key rigs said oaklawn a bunch of races a bunch of horses. He has beaten have come back to win. But i'm a little wary on this one as well. He had a big gap in his workouts Before his first two races he was working really fast doesn't seem to be the case since he's resumed now. That could very well be. That may be steve. Asmussen's been planning on stretching about all along. But i i don't know how well that would serve them in here. So we also have the bob baffert horse viso Who i don't like it all in here. But he's almost guaranteed to take some money. Just because of name recognition and bob baffert and it did look pretty impressive. Winning last time audi basically ran a one zero five speed figure. Which was sammy ram. When he got drubbed in his debut by a horse's turn the very good dream shape. So i'm gonna go in a totally different direction here and go to one of those inside speed horses and that's noble reflection this award sue. I really liked his maiden race. I think we talked about it on the pace cast. They got a one ten time form. Usb figure that they but like this he is a horse who certainly looks to me like. He's bread to go longer out. He's by liam's map out of his now mayor. The race has come back strong. The the runner-up came back to win his start next out all the other horses. They've kind of backed up to speed figures and despite that fast pace notation on the pace. Projector i i still think speed is dangerous and i think he could very well be speed the speed or maybe just sit off the to horsewhipped shirt who i've already mentioned and i believe this is one of those races where the us short stretch at qinglin and it just seems to favor horses inside with speed so i really like what i saw from noble reflection. He's a big price in here. And i'm not gonna let the peace projector taught me off that kind of number. Yeah we have a very similar take on this race once again. I think we agree. A lot of this This forecast today Yet proxy is surely the horse to beat that i think has formed from louisiana is solid. I mean those were good horses that he was running against but he kind of after taking a step forward in each successive. Start heading into the lecomte. He's plateaued a little bit in his speed figures. Since then maybe he didn't like the mile and three sixteenths last time demanding distance for three year olds in march. And now he's getting back to a mile and a sixteenth here But still it's not like he's got some big speed figure edge on this field so we have to run one of his best races to beat them. And i'm not sure like you. How comfortable he's going to be coming from the back of the pack in this race and he likely will be closing just given how much speed is drawn to the inside. So proxy can definitely win. And i would probably concede he's the most likely winner of this race. I wouldn't want to take a really short price on him. And we landed on the same horse. Greg noble reflection and you probably remember. I was really taken with this horse. His debut in addition to talking to you about it on the pace cast. I made him one of my horses to watch that week Because i just wanted to show the entire replay of that race and you made a good point about the runner up coming back to win and i completely agree with you. With regard to this horse's pedigree liam's map is a good dirt route influence on the damn side. This damn deal of the decade by tis. Now she's produced a bunch of bowls and almost all of them have been porches that preferred going route distances. Some of them on the turf but most of them on the dirt or like pretty fancy decent dirt powder cash out who could race on dirt enter going distances as far as a mile and an eighth so just feels like normal reflection is supposed to handle the extra ground. We'll see how fast he has to run on the front end. But i do think that he's one that will be on the lead here. I would say that he's likely to be the speed of the speed in this race because he's breaking from the rail and also if you watch to prior starts. This horse is just like a rocket launcher coming out of the gate fast out of the gate. So he's likely to have. The advantage comes from the inside as long as he breaks his sharply as he has in his two prior starts. And i'm just hoping javier castellano can rationale to speed on the front end that he can keep going with that short stretch. Go the milena. Sixteenth at keeneland. Sometimes that does favorite horses that are on the front end. So i'm hoping he can take them all the way as for the others in this race you're swift shore as you said. He showed a lot of talented his prior to starts. But i'm not quite as confident about him. Handling the extra ground is. I am noble reflection swift shores. Damn side pedigrees a little more sprint oriented. I have no interest in bays does. I've just never really gotten the hype on that horse hockey dad. I think has to be considered a little bit interesting. Because even though the big figure that he earned last time in the jeff ruby stakes was earned on synthetic. He's really run well on every surface that he's tried so far he did improve stretching out in distance last time so it could be that hockey. Dad is just a horse. That's moving in the right direction. The spring of his three year old season hockey. Dad is kind of wild card if i was playing vertical or horizontal beds while hand vertical. He's one that i would use my tickets. He did get a bit of a dream trip that jr steaks with just super fast pace and still wasn't able to close the deal. So i i'm a little iffy on him but at a price i certainly would take a shot on him from clay and pick threes or fours or whatever in here Yeah not not a whole lot to add. I'm going to base my boy on noble reflection here and hope he lives up to what i saw that first rates. Yeah just a couple more things. I don't think we're going to get fifteen two one unknowable. Reflection his last race was too impressive for him to offer that kind of price. But i do think he go aid to ten to one range because there are plenty of other ways to go in here so i do still think he'll be a a playable price. I'm i'm picking him as i think you are expecting to get a price. That's a little lower than the morning line and just i regard to the pace. We're talking mostly about horses that are going to be placed close to the front end in here and we're doing that because as you look through this field. There just isn't really a convincing closer to take. I mean i guess the one you might consider as unbridled honor but he just looked so slow to me. So i just couldn't find a closer that i find really appealing. No i agree with you about the morning line. I mean they have to ten horse starring in my dreams at six to one. And i mean looking at his running lines compared to noble reflection. I don't any way in the world. That horse goes off at best price. Let alone the kind of discrepancy that the morning line choose. Let's finish things up on this forecast with the grade. One jenny wiley. I think it's the only grade. One being run at keeneland on saturday. Going a mile and a sixteenth four the phillies and mayors. And it's a compact field but a field with some real quality especially with those three horses drawn down towards the inside now. The favourite on the morning light is the number one michelin. I'll be interested to see how they actually bet this race. I was just tweeting about before. We came on the air to record this forecast just based on the way the pace is likely to shake out and how well she ran on her race's last year it feels to me like the number three juliet. Foxtrot is just simply the horse to beat in this race. In given the strength of brad cox keeneland. I'd have to think that she's gonna take a lot of money in here and might even go off the favorite in this race to me. She's a horse to be. Yeah we agree. Unfortunately i hate when we agree to much but sometimes it works out that way. She's still horse to beat. I mean it's a race only six horses in here She shown on a clear lead on the peace. Projector a reset says. It's gonna fever. Horses owner nearly early and on top of that cheese the most accomplished in the field. She's run the fastest speed figures. has the biggest races so for me. She is clearly the horse to beat. I guess if i had to come up with a the second choice would be missing. And that's just because. I was impressed by your race last time even though she only got a one thirteen time formula speed figure. I know you like they're on the forecast that day and i think that speed figures a little misleading. Because if you watch that race. She drew outside. She was wide the whole way. And i was just really impressed. How she kept coming through the lane despite traveling all that extra ground so she ran a one thirteen at tampa. She had prior to that. Run a one seventeen and is a fairly newly term four year old. This only be your second start. I think she's the horse. Most likely capable of running in the one twentieth. Outside of juliet foxtrot yet. Juliet fox trot ibn. Some might say if they're knocking her that she's squandered some opportunities to win at relatively short prices in the past but she has faced some pretty good horses over the past. Couple seasons Some chad brown. Titans like rushing fall. And so. I don't think it's any disgraced losing to those horses. And when she gets a favorable pace scenario she's usually pretty dangerous. I mean we've seen her win gate to wire in the past going back to twenty nineteen but she's been very successful when she gets moderate paces. That was not the case last time in the matriarch when they went really fast on the front end. I mean mike. Smith is not my favorite turf writer in general because he just sometimes doesn't Fight his horses to put them in the right spot. I'll try to say it. That way and juliette foxtrot. He just dropped his hands on her and let her basically run off on the backstretch going way too fast and she paid the price late. I think that she would have won that race. If she had been taken in hand a little bit earlier But still losing two horses like the blow out is no disgrace. That brace came out very fast. And i just think if juliet fox trot returns in that same kind of form. She's going to be tough here incorrect. You know that. I'm a big fan of michelin. I liked her last year three year. Old i thought she arguably around the best racing the queen elizabeth challenge cup over this course back in october so if she continues moving forward as a four year old. I think she's very dangerous. She's just a horse. That doesn't have a big turn of foot kind of like her. Her brother proxy. It's of funny to see these siblings running back to back at team and a proxy and michelin out of the same damn panty raid but like that horse mission leans more of a grinder and lacking that kind of turn of foot. I warrior that she might not be as effective in a slow paced race. So i just. I'm not sure that michelin's going to get the right trip in here. But i do think she's one. That's moving in the right direction. The horse that's gonna take money. That i just don't quite get is the number to tampa here and chad. Brown has two runners in this race. I don't see how at twelve is Much of a contender based on races last year. That would by grade one. That charan and really wasn't the kind of great one quality that we're seeing in this jenny wiley but here i think is the one. That's gonna take more money. And i just i just didn't quite get the hype on her ahead of the matriarch where she was down to favouritism. She was beating a very weak field of three year. Old fillies in the sand pointed while she was visually impressive in that race. She's never run the kind of speed figure. That says that she's good enough to beat julia. Foxtrot matriarch. she couldn't beat her in. You've already detailed. Churchill way at foxtrot head. So i don't see how she could be there in this spot if they show up in good form couldn't beat her that day. It's hard to imagine her beating her without some major form reversal. Where juliet foxtrot details off. So i'm with you. I don't buy the morning line at all as you didn't that you mentioned on twitter i. I don't see juliet foxtrot. Not being the favourite in near to be honest. I don't think she's going to be in. The sixty five range may be the eat the five nine to five type of favorite just because the chad brown horses are always going to take money. But i think she's clearly the worst beaten tampa here doesn't scare me in the slightest well a lot of agreement on this forecast so we don't have too many opinions that we could be right about because you always cut those in half when we have the same pick all the races but hopefully we're right about our agree agree opinions on this episode of the forecast as for this late sequence at keeneland craig. These races are all consecutive. We didn't talk about the ben ally which is leading this. Pick five or the bayden race at the end but this does feel like a consumer. You can probably go a little thin. The jenny wiley. And the lexington just seems like arrays that so wide open. It might be able to make a pick four. Pick five sequence pay. Well yeah it looks like a decent enough to sequence the me. Ben is just i mean. It's only five force field. I haven't handicapped it but it. It's certainly a very weak grade three on paper. But i would imagine you wouldn't have to go to deepen there're certainly will have to take. Maybe it's one of those wide open five force fields. But i i think the three races we talked about outside the lexington. I thinking keep pretty narrow and come up with a reasonable ticket. Well that's it for this week's time form. Us podcasts We will obviously recap all of the races that we talked about on this forecast on the pace cast. We do that on tuesday. And we'll have a discussion about how things have been sorted out on the kentucky derby terrell because the point standings will be set by. Then we'll just have to see who commits to the race. And if there are any defections between now and kentucky derby time in early may but a lot to look forward to this weekend. And i'm sure greg both watching those races on saturday. Remember that you can always listen to us on dear f. dot com spotify. I tunes youtube and soundcloud replicator. Podcast just make sure to subscribe to the daily racing form chatel. Thanks for tuning in this week and make sure to catch the time. Us pace cast on tuesday.

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