Mon. 11/04 ORourke Drops Out

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welcome to the election. Ride home for Monday. November fourth twenty. Nineteen I'm your host Chris Higgins with the summary of election news today a work drops out a New York Times poll looks at battleground states. The trump impeachment stuff in three minutes or less the Castro campaign prepares for layoffs more details on the November DNC debate and new polls helped to candidates qualify for the December DNC debate. Here's what you missed. Today from the campaign trail first up on Friday Beto Aurora dropped his bid for the presidency after declaring his campaign way back on March fourteenth. He spent two hundred thirty two days in the race. Now according to my math that is the longest run of any candidate who has dropped out at this point as with all candidates who dropped dropout. Let's take a look back at his candidacy. A rare came into the race. Fresh off of an unsuccessful bid for Senate in Texas. He tried to defeat Senator Ted Cruz and didn't didn't quite make it but during that Senate run. He gained national attention for almost defeating an incumbent. Republican in a red state that national profile L. helped or work with fundraising at least early on reading from an article. In The New York Times by Alexander burnes quote in the earliest days of his campaign. Mister O'Rourke was a fundraising powerhouse. Collecting more than six million dollars. In his first day as a candidate but his fundraising cratered Richard. Almost immediately he raised more in his first forty eight hours than in the following one hundred days and steadily depleted his campaign treasury by I spending more than he was taking in and quote by the middle of last week or works campaign was in Dire Straits financially facing the possibility of laying off staff in order to remain afloat reading from post on medium by Aurora titled. Simply thank you quote. Though it is difficult to accept it is clear to me. Now that this campaign gene does not have the means to move forward successfully. My service to the country will not be as a candidate or as the nominee acknowledging. This now is in the best interests of those in the campaign. It is in the best interests of this party as we seek to unify around a nominee and it is in the best interests of the country and he goes on to discuss his campaign and his achievements during it and to thank his supporters. He also says he will work to support the eventual Democratic nominee. So let's let's listen back to one key moment from the aurore campaign. The most notable moment for Aurora came in the wake of tragedy when a shooter drove to El Paso Aso in order to shoot people at a local Walmart a works hometown was visited by domestic terrorism. This led to a major change in how he talked about gun safety fifty and to some extent about race and immigration. Let's listen to a clip from Sunday. August fourth in which Iraq spoke to folks about how he would react to the shootings. This this happened at sunset at a vigil El Paso. Listen I am so proud. At this moment humanity that will not be defined defined by the murders that we saw yesterday but instead in the way choose to overcome them to ourselves by our laws our courage our our confidence in our face of this weakness and fear and intolerance and the example that we will provide the rest of the country at our differences are not dangerous a you not define us. They will not survive us that once and for all we will choose to come together and ensure it's worth every single American can live to their potential and it will look was here in castle for the example. Are you ready to provide Those families in our prayers birth. Let's continue to share the story of El Paso and what is financial community with the rest of the world and then if listened to Unwell Well Patricia remind us that in addition to the racism and the hatred and the fear and the intolerance we are a country that it has accepted does for four thousand gun deaths every single year. No other country comes close and we know the solutions. Universal background checks close every single day making the adoption lost anyone who poses a dangerous themselves. Someone else someone in your life where their lives is stopped before it. Just although Aurora has been encouraged by many to run for the other Senate seat in Texas. He has repeatedly declined to do that. I have seen no no indication that he will run for any office. In twenty twenty and now just seventeen. Major Democratic candidates remain the election. Right home is sponsored today by Mac Weldon. Now Listen Up. I do a lot of work in the yarden. Pardon I can tell you. 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Wisconsin Florida Florida Arizona and North Carolina and looking at that Biden column. Gosh there's a lot of Biden winning. He wins four states by anywhere anywhere from two percent to five percent against trump. They're tied in one state and he loses one to trump by two percent. Now compare this to sanders. Who who wins three states and loses three states all by margins of one to three percent and compare this to Warren who wins one St ties to Oh and loses three the spread there is between two and six percent alright so on first viewing you might be inclined to look at this graphic and say oh crap rap the only Democrat in this list who can win these states is Biden and in fact? That's how the Times put it in. Their headline they say Biden is ahead of trump but warren in is behind trump and that is a legitimate way to look at this poll fight. Let's go a little bit deeper. As always with polls we have to talk about methodology legiti particularly the margin of error the margin of error for five of the six states. I just mentioned is plus or minus four point four percent and for Michigan again. It's plus or minus five point one percent so in other words every result in that graphic whether it is a win or a loss is within the margin of error. You're with just two exceptions. Those are Biden at plus five in Arizona. which is less than one percent outside the margin and Warren minus six in Michigan again? which again is less than one percent outside the margin now? I'm not saying that. Every one of these results is incorrect. That would be a huge reach but but I am saying the margin of error is a real thing. The simplest way to read this poll from my perspective is to say wow in these battleground states it really. Is this close now. Which of these three Democrats or the other Democrats is the best option? Well that's a harder case to make based on this data. That's what the primary Mary needs to be about. And there are a lot of factors that could change between now and the actual vote in two thousand twenty quoting NPR. Political Editor Domenico Montinaro. Oh on twitter quote poll show right now that the two thousand twenty election next year. We'll probably be close in the states that matter and who turns out is going to be key cool will end quote now beyond the margin of error the psychological effect of big numbers versus small numbers is real however in winning elections. Sion's it doesn't matter whether you win big or just win. That's how trump won in two thousand. Sixteen he narrowly won a bunch of states and those winds Add up he could do that again. Or a Democrat could have a similar result. Nate silver of fivethirtyeight alluded to that in a two-part tweet this morning quote the difference between Biden's performance versus trump and warren slash. Bernese is about the same in those upshot state polls as in most other polls holes this year it looks a lot bigger because in most other polls all the leading Democrats have big leads. And they don't in the upshot polls when Biden leads by nine or ten and Warren Slash Bernie lead by six or seven. Nobody notices much but when Biden leads by one or two and Warren Oren Slash Bernie trail by one or two. It looks huge. It's actually the same two to three point gap though and quote all of of this is to say. Take your polling with grains of salt listened to people who are professional pollsters when they tell you things about how to understand their own polls especially if some results results are actually within the margin of error and cone the author of the time story about these polls actually did that in two ways first. He took to twitter Lincolnshire show notes to discuss the various reasons why these results differ by design from other major polls. Now that may mean they're more accurate that they represent a better prediction than other pollsters right now. Part of this is by making sure these polls did a solid job of polling white non college educated voters but Kona saying up front hey. This poll design is notably different and arguably better. The question there becomes basically. Is he right eight. Is that poll design better or not and I'm not sure how we test that without holding an election just because it's a different design doesn't make it correct rector incorrect but it does say. Hey this one is not like the others and it's like that on purpose at the same time cone actually says in the time story story at the very first graphic shows results that are within this poll's margin of error now. It's kind of easy to miss that. Because it's one sentence in this long litany of images images that seem to paint a different picture but again the margin is a key grain of salt that we must consider when reading poll reading once more from the times quote across the six closest states that went Republican in two thousand sixteen trump trails Joe Biden by an average of two points among registered voters but stays within within the margin of error and quote and now the trump impeachment impeachment news in three minutes or less over the weekend. The big news was at the whistle blowers lawyer said the whistle blower themself would answer written questions from Republican members of Congress and go in further. The lawyer said these questions could be submitted directly without having to go through the congressional process and even more the responses would be quote in writing and another oath and penalty of perjury and quote. So that was the offer well. Republicans were not having it representative. Jim Jordan of Ohio wrote in part quote. Last week's testimony raised even more concerns about the anonymous whistleblower and our need to hear from them in person and quote today despite Congress being technically in recess private depositions in the impeachment inquiry continued. Well they tried to continue anyway. Two key witnesses scheduled for today Robert Blair and John John Eisenberg failed to show up for their testimony in the morning despite subpoenas although I am saying this before it actually happens. The other two key witnesses for the day are also expected not out to show up in a CNN. Story on Saturday Monterey Zhou Jeremy Herb wrote about how Democrats might handle this blanket. Refusal of key witnesses to actually show up and testify testify. The choice boils down to engaging in a long legal fight to try to get those witnesses or just take what they've already gotten. Lay it out in an interesting twist the latter option might just be the plan reading from CNN quote a number of House Democrats told CNN that it's time for that next step saying they've already ready built enough evidence to advance the proceedings to the public stage. This isn't an Agatha Christie novel. This is a shakedown said. Representative Jamie Raskin. A Democrat from Maryland. Who has taken part in the closed-door depositions? I think we have established an overwhelming case. But we have got very careful prosecutors on the staff who rightfully want want to leave no witnesses unexamined and they want every detail to be nailed down as much as possible. That's good raskin added but at a certain point we have to say. There's just been an overwhelming case. That high crimes and misdemeanors have likely been committed against our country and quote in that Context House Speaker. Nancy Pelosi she has indicated that public hearings could begin this month and transcripts of closed door. Testimony have just started to be released as I read this to transcripts descript from mid October have just been released so presumably. I'll have more on that for you tomorrow Last week I reported that Julia on Castro just barely made his fundraising goal by Halloween. And that last minute push actually made up the great majority of his overall October fundraising in a CNN story. On Saturday Dan merica notes that the Castro campaign is preparing to lay off some staff reading from CNN quote. It was clear inside the San Antonio based campaign even before the push began but the future was uncertain for the Texas Democrat. The Castro campaign senior leadership told staffers before they announced their fundraising. Push that whether or not they hit the number staff should feel free to look for other other opportunities and even when the campaign hit the fundraising goal Castro senior. Aides again told staff at the campaign would likely have to make staffing adjustments moments to press on that has led some Castro aides to look for jobs with other campaigns. A source said Castro has no plans to drop out at this point but that the campaign's senior leadership wanted to be as clear as possible with staff about the campaigns forthcoming strategic decisions and not spring the news on them and quote so add Castro to the last along with Harris of candidates who are restructuring their campaigns to focus on just a few early voting states rates and now some debate news confirming a very strong rimmer from last week the November. DNC debate will be held at Tyler Perry studios in Atlanta but the new information is the timing it will take place from nine nine pm to eleven pm Eastern on November twentieth. That is both later in the day and shorter overall than recent debates. And we'll just have have to see whether it makes a difference to how the beat works and lasts today a little more debate news. A bunch of new polls came out over the weekend to summarize their effect on the DNC debate stages. Well it's pretty simple senator. Kamala Harris picked up her fourth qualifying poll for December. So she is locked. In plus Senator Amy Klobuchar picked up her third qualifying poll also for December. So she is this close the polls gave no help to anybody else for either debate. Keep in mind. The November qualifying period ends on November thirteenth and representative tentative Tulsi. Gabbard currently has three qualifying polls for that debate. So if she gets one more in the next nine days she will be the tenth person on the November debate stage right now. Only five candidates have technically qualified for December. Though I do expect that number to increase. Well that is it for one more episode of the election ride. Home I have been your host Chris Higgins. You can always find me on twitter at Chris Higgins close out the tape. Take two things come to mind. First Sunday. Yesterday was the one year mark until the general election in twenty twenty so we are now within that one in year window and we are speeding toward Iowa as well. The second thing is that many of us are facing our own local elections tomorrow out here in Oregon. We had a series of ballot measures. There's an because we are one hundred percent vote by mail wife and I felt at our ballots the kitchen table and just dropped him in the box. We

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