Bonusisode with Nerida | A Permanent Shift To Regional Locations?!
He had a really great chat with narrow. Toconas be the chief economist at the rei group earlier. This week on property The regional locations the election interest rates in whole range of other things. And we obviously wanted to make these available for you to listen here on the couch podcast. So we're going to get to the interview that will head on facebook live earlier. In the week with narrada conan speak hombres holdaway host of the property caption tonight. I'll have with. May i returning guests Narrow on speakers the chief economist. At the ira group for most of us now as real real estate dot com that able is other ones as well but toughest will welcome back to the catch up and for having me ask terrific to have you as always before having chet tonight battelle. We couldn't really start a conversation between all that really sort of tipping a hat to the us and the presidential election. And i'm interested in your folks as an economist on the china pale motmain festival for our economy moving second bowl a flow onto the property market. Yeah okay so my thought on the economy and Us aunts a major trading partner erik economic fourteen dollars more closely aligned to china so china from us sanctions suspect people from a political perspective does have much greater bearing. They are a big A partner in strategic partner. And otherwise. I might not be economic related that it apart missing otherwise size The main needs to -bility you know we. We want to save greatest stability in the. Us cds pretty divided country at the moment The someone that was unexpected. I think a lot of people thought it would be a gap between Trump and biden So i guess i roll could me sorry. The good news is a decision and you know. Hopefully it's there's a lot of the country becomes fiddled. Either coming months from studying property Again huge impact because people in the us starting typically by a lot of australian property. And i've been not likely la- agent bars who have been a determined in terms of particularly of the plan apartment but we can certainly say we've certainly seen a big jump in property from the us coming out of places. Like new york and california. I think you know somewhere. Like new york has been hit by Hit very hard by carbon. So you know that having packed is likely to be a fairly big expect community in new york as well. so that's essentially had an impact It's pretty similar to what we saw. When brexit was announced a big increase from the guy from hong kong when the expedition bill with announced resort beating praise from hong kong. You know we do tend to save these fluctuations a search on real estate dot com. You and they're off political situations. That are a little. be done. settling interesting. I guess the big area that people from the us searching each part by side you know this is something that barn by just popping up everywhere the mine and that northern rivas areas just so popula just say property seekers that people from into state and Local as well so that kind of number one which was quite interesting. Probably a little bit driven by the And he's built exactly exactly. I think the us celebrity you probably going to be doubling the us boom population so it's Quite interesting times. Up in the new south wales at the moment it could arguably the center of the universe for a straight line because he's got so much going forward in terms of its lost all it's really grind. Combet you've got an international app or just dive in the border. And then you're actually still within qa of capital city north and not too fast as well. So it's it's you could see wadi. Appeal is but i'm sure it's an safeway for us to talk about some of the at some of the challenges that have happened through cairo. Think it's a favorite oppressor rampage will making decisions guy It not regional spots of the same ally in terms of being able to sustain overlong appear to tom. Cruise the coast here in victoria but the gulf coast in the sunshine coast of the obvious ones. But i guess wherever there's a winery all bit of a foodie culture of if the saint sank the obvious ones midtown. The thing for me. Going forward is Will will there be enough to sustain places. That don't necessarily take those boxes that outrage would offer capable off style down. Did i will pay back themselves to god whilst i have a job. Will i get insecure. That if i ever lose that job would that be added. Another one. Yeah look at anything interesting. I mean we think they seem credible fits activity in regional australia. Covid nineteen and that sounds like lightning three to pricing. We saw las vegas actually translating through the population movement and supported that. They've never seen so many people moving from capitol cds to regional since they've been tracking dada fit. So i you know. There's no doubt that these big shift that's occurring. I think you know what we saw. Product covid was a definite shift originalist riley. I'm sorry we certainly saw that places like serious too. Long ballarat andy guy Moving down woolen gung a go kart sunshine crisis. We're all doing really really well Primarily my little to do with ford ability and not because necessarily really cheap areas but because people can ask a better lifestyle Than what i can actually get into capital city since carbon is that accelerated. So you know that interesting in our various has accelerated but the level of interest has pushed out areas that sweeping commuting distance to capital city. Sorry orange in central west new south. Wales is a good example. Reveal fire in the northern new south wales region navy north. Basically north car- stretching otherwise who've quainton border has become incredibly popular places like wonderful. you know. Wanna both no way really hard to get tomorrow. Delighted that same really good price card so i think it comes back to you. Know these areas you know they they. It's great that people have discovered them but all side there are little bit risking terms of what will happen. Runs back into the office. A lot of is still working from high difference point whether we will be called back into the office. Because i think that be the lingering thought this guy on just pasta fringe commutable areas had something that i'm particularly keeping on. You know i'm i'm the case study. Oh i have. Skied from the city allotted But it's an. I'm seeing unprecedented demand in mind community. It's phenomenal to be on a spit down. It's just that longevity. And i think there's potential that it can happen domain You doing the Online meeting i mean. It's just so normalize. Now that it's possible i still do have An interest to see how that goes stein and going forward. You said this preference is Is two one is how we work and two is the morning sick to how we work. We touched on that around. The fact that we're we're networked for parliament of We once were. You might comment in in one of your blogs that geelong illawarra sunshine coast. Go commander that roy. These china signs anyway prions but can you talk to us. A little bit about the the resurgence in the morning center and how you see that sort of impacting that shift wise. Well yes i mean. I mining areas. That would be risky. You know we were saying that. In the past that people buy into them because processes surging and rent going really well and then the the mind slows down or tv salts and then suddenly you know a practice crash so right now we can say places like port hedland doing really well from a range of the even from a process that qarafa is another one So the areas that you know they able housing or investment but if you are someone twenty to go into those markets to be fully aware that you know the processing tends to go like this as a part is to be know more capital cd Occurrence for some of the more interesting ones I mentioned before central with me. Seth wile There's there's a gold mine in in that region so somebody like orange around twenty five percent of their economic growth from mining. But it's going to be lost saw element to it as well. You know we can say At the moment unrealistic dot com today that somewhere like are in his now saying more time are inquire even kelly view in sydney. So there's obviously something going on in terms of of activity that some sparking interesting creating jobs in that region towns who is another one. It's it's actually from price cars but you know it's gonna dick decade of decline so again it's going to be mindful but one one time period of a gray often doesn't even fit the declined to comply either a prolonged period slip. One point you rise. There is united states. People listening to the audio. That couldn't say your hang up and down sort of volatility vitton. We've had one of the leading sales agents on an poconos to response to adults south important inland and recanted. what is locked during. The haiti dies and then recanted. It was locked during. The doctor is on side. It's all my slack. And i'll and i'll probably get shot by the people in these regions but it's more it's more of a it's more retrial than an invest because investing is more about sort of holding a long time whereas the trading singing opportunity and being able to do that so full for the experienced investors must be smoking vacancies in those areas. That's fueled by these demand as as you said in your blog Affected them production of on all either in tight affected areas as herself american. Mike even more internationally demand for what we've got out which is which is always been good now with extra demand so caution but this clearly clearly this opportunity than with a bit of demand in that particular spice e. The big question we talked about this will be cooled back into the office. We die. i'm but you you have a view that the shift will be reasonably permanent Going forward heavy fenway. When you look at an open newsouth wild. I mean that's probably the area that's really benefiting right now in terms of prospects bar and by what processes of shut up thirty percent in three months time periods. Are you know obviously not going to keep increasing at that right. It can't cause increasing that right thought But if you have a locate a really good example bengali. In northern south of that that has actually saying the strongest price growth in australia over twenty years far more than any suburb in any capital city or any other regional area and increased from. I think seventy thousand median in two thousand heat now just over a million dollar median. So it's one thousand two hundred and line percents in christ which is fourteen percent per annum you know. They really really beating price. That went with saying that time period. I think look. I think that we will continue by Obviously the pricing increases were saying count companion. And so you know that. That's the difference The other thing neither really driving at gold coast and sunshine coast easily from victoria coming back to besides dada that came out lost weight but i did say the highest level of movement from victoria to queensland since nineteen so you know there's you know again will that continue we don't know for sure but You know in that dramatic to june time period which is basically early carbon. We saw a big movement to to queensland and And that definitely benefitting places like gold coast and sunshine coast where we are now saying some pretty record numbers in terms of search within a doubling insect. Tvd but a real faith saying very very being crisis in processing in particularly some very expensive variants such as sunshine beach which is all in on the sunshine carton about the he the yeah coin is that will allow you at all. I guess i watch the spice really shots on his his Listening watching this just put a little night in the comments lettuce now if you're planning to move at regional and way and we can see if we can get a bit of a without happening as well outside advertising so quick money on interest rates. Cash ride is. You couldn't save all seventies baton. Monetary policies is is not long ago. I toll it can be easily used. What's your feedback. First of all on the fact that the right to satellite and the fact that the monetary policies probably notice path at that level and to a we've talked about negative rates before be interested again now. The were even clark's out to that. What what your view is on that. Full yeah sorry Obviously interest to caught again last week which was another sort of the property recently. Say anytime my. I caught that that people do look to borrow more and and as a result that does help help crossing the other things that have happened. We have had some relaxation of responsible lending roof. So so that's really helping We've also saying a lot of the job loss. That's taking place during covid bay. More heavily concentrated on young people as opposed to older people. So you know that have rental market very hard And then of course we have the banks which are incredibly wilcox laws at the moment and We had the of ain't they'd come out on offense with the white before saying you know it was just much money. We didn't know what to do with it. You know no one wants that. He made some comment like that. Which you know. It's on issue about it. Just shows how unusual a situation wherein at the moment that on one hand we have very bad recession and we've got very high levels of unemployment that at the same time nice shortage of cash is really propping up asset values across the range of investment tots of beach. Property is one of them and effective attacks. Along to transact is also been austin buffer in the fact that the banks have been responsive has been helpful. But yeah. I guess people still have this view. The damn there is still some form of Was called satanic. Cliff candidate timber slides. They moved to match the promised head. I deny talking about how we need to sort of wane off the off the support to try and stand on arms fade against. It'll be interesting to watch that. Spice insane attack. I think ultimately what stri and we've said along and so most United is consistent. Laboriously boring decided that affected. We still have this strong underlying demand for for real estate in march tobacco markets at the at the established level and a constantly changing too too much four. Given that you've got this demand heavily driven by on rocky pause and already that you've got this this group of people that are just at solid affordability. Anything sort of dropped significantly lead looking alex. Ready to jump in as well. Something that bodes well for out. It's going forward at another love. You just just in terms of Alps sending me a question. They said not intensive property market observations. The melvin save. They could possibly be the biggest challenge property market right now with the matter vacancies. What what's your observations. Ed yeah you know when we talk about property and it does seem to be checking pretty well at the moment just thought conditions spots one of the areas of showing i guess he's the rental market and my stralia. Now we have seen it recover very early in the pandemic we did say rapid rising by conceived and be dropped ranch but this is sort of old floyd trail now and even inside problematic one area problematic moments day and play the city the suburbs basically comprises cd of melbourne including places like caution and docklands and southbank where we do now have around for thousand vacant apartments. In that. in that area it has inc big quantities vacancy at that time but basically four thousand up to about twelve thousand currently We also have. I mean primarily. The problem is foreign students. Have a chance so you know this problem. We speak a problem around. Migration is a bit of a problem is a big problem. problems range will raise retail vacancy. Put around two hundred. Thirty additional vitamin shoppe off say can see right is tripled Obviously abc's at worst case mouth. Anything coming out of the lockdown you. If you want to look at one area that he's saying the mice impacted that is that is the moment these at the moment. Iraq is locked down students places in town. It's it really is the hardest heated Full the teachings. We've always talked about in terms of my shrek. We self inviolable positions where you're made even intensity will. That's the case where that's happened. I've got a couple a couple of people living Someone wants to move from santa village in queensland and just moved from melbourne to bendigo town and so much more bang for buck already might thousand equity in less than eager to inside demand and that which has said to a sunshine coast. He's on fly. Fishing guide absolutely not inclined cry standpoint fees creepy at the moment everyone everyone's out all the items up verifying it record level thoughtful copies and typically sell out on saying so. That's what's your what's your feedback on some of the incentives that the government has offered you know i was game the extension of high build up and then also Some mooted infrastructure spending. That's been murdered for some taller Clang atas we As we're not going recovery. They played great things like fifth time by grant could need for first time by can say in terms of the inquiry level that it stain pretty be year. The first time so So that i'm greg. News is good news. Because it's so often i get their values level of government in to buy from you know certainly very generous for them in terms of Hind buddha similarly saying that primarily pets the house and land sector so lots and lots of activity in the suburban areas. Many regional areas are doing pretty well off the back of vat for a little bit problematic in that we have zero migration from overseas and at the home building more housing. So you know a little bit of an issue there but you know. I'm i'm pretty confident that stage in the near future we will be opening our borders again. Sorry won't be long chamie she but Little perhaps a little bit problematic in that we are building when this there's not new people coming into the country so tips to give people some updates from what you're saying about the fact that students This a coupla. Paula programs for students. Coming in and i guess as we get Get under control of the virus. Here in victoria given with Tobacco dies with that new cases. Do you do say the government. Saying that. As i applies to die would bring fold or do you think politically it. It would be something that. I would still continue to push off till next year. Yeah i think clayton kershaw funding. They still a lot of kylie. Say that are trying to get back to. I think you know about the now but From from an economic perspective you know we can certainly say for something like victoria. Where where education is the number one exported particularly problematic. Not just in the city apartment. It's actually medic for for the water economy. So i will you know it'll get sorted out but it's obviously this time period in which is going to be a pretty big drag on economic guard along. Do you think that will take full as a strategy looks to recalibrate clearly. Victoria is behind that recovery. Given the do. What's your commentary around. The ability victoria get backing along with the rest of the country. Do you think that'll be sound tom. I don't think simon you go to. The melbourne was ninety days. One hundred days walk down. I you know it wasn't it wasn't audience so it wasn't a huge amount. I mean he he melbourne it. You know it wasn't catastrophic to the economy sorry So you know we'll say about fat you know we saw when We saw it when melvin. Sorry when the rest of the stralia raritan that we speaking impact on retail trade resorting to him. Tv already on on on on real estate dot com. Today you know. I think people were wanting to stay in wanting to travel they wanting to do stuff and And that will really help you know. We can mind china that confidence and that enthusiasm hopefully too many people to coin flying but But if not then be it will be good. Needs for the victorian economy. Will the challenges capacity isn't if a scenario The capacity of site even reindeer in on the cars that all all this extra demands coming. But there's still sign needle on up and have a booking in the united before five people at saw the restaurant compared to be in so whilst is the demand county suspending money. Because that allowed the won't be doing any kind of inside. So that's that's probably the biggest help to recovery. Act tom if we continue to get on. Top of the health challenge nationally as well as he be toria where multiple can come to the restaurants. More people can consume that for the arctic which we regret. Now i'm just gonna quickly say here we've got a couple of saying what about the central boy gosford just a city by the trying must be the next big boy. Modern think. there's any secrets there. I think that's a bit more. Mandarin perth and sunshine coast dulcolax. You're on fringe commutable. So that's pro and ben guy. This is battle right. Bandages tipped to have much stronger. Growth in the next three hundred and five years when mob three to five years. So we went there. The color drivable. Clearly a few people sort of giving us some feedback north series Gang up as well. I think what was interesting. Let's go kick on al podcasts. He has been i value of fifty years and settle just bought geography. The fact that Victoria is so small. We saw big dense of population Difficult to even think of geelong bendigo ballerinas out ratings colledge originally conflicts have suburbs melbourne. Anyway away the jauregui aging lending restrictions. So that's shifting land up other responsibility. Foam land is to the borrowers United banks to pour out of people's can't say what did you spend that spin on sort of giving more responsibility back to to the buyer. And and i guess some of the Got a is bad news. I've been slather philander going to get a bit lazy. But i think in the shadows of a royal commission and some some some hits to reputation us office in the short-term we probably say that they would be reluctant to sort of colorado the lawns. But do you say that that as that memory pasta Do see that. That would be a challenge. Now i think they'll be careful. I mean just come to a royal commission They've they've gonna be continue continued. Focus on the behavior. I mean some people in the banking sector say that you know the big four. Have you know tie the line. And they'll be careful in the way they lend thought probably the biggest challenge will be some of the emerging digital players. They're gonna get pretty competitive and try to get mock cher which Potentially you know that may lead to a little bit more risky lending behavior but I think i will be pretty careful. It does fundamentally important that people do take responsibility for what they're doing. I think because you know the. I guess the whole argument of responsible lending at the problem or is it the length of pro the problem and trying to get the right balance. Is you know pretty challenging. I think government regulators challenge easy. So we'll pay between like adults. Let us betrayed like adults and then you have someone who prize on people which which which still cameras those will. I guess the environment that we're in you know aware catching up last year. We haven't compensations iran. A ham breaks braxton. The fact that the property market was going to buoyant in we earn entirely different world. Now we actually need to be encouraging people to still have that conference so they can go and spend the money and invest athlon So the we can actually get s out of the young out of the recession that we're in full waves to timothy went into recession. See as we get the results. Full the reminding quarters. Do you see any other ones dipping into negative growth. What do you think that we have that pass now. get past. The main victoria. Fly down a few few of the nations but agency victoria going to look extended. Look them the fact that the thank you know every probably out of it now is that the rest of australia has been strong enough A lot of the data coming through how tried dot autumn. It's coming trays is. I'm super bowl these but it's better and then you've got inflation which again not super positive but they're not dipping like at in the in the june quarter you know. There's there's certainly enough information now coming through so just shy that we probably out of recession. There's still a lot of problems that we we donate to get and nobody play. Carbon if one of them and migration is another and You know border some borders. You know all the things they need to be sorted out now we you know. We'll have next year. I mean this talk today of the vaccine. That's been developing ninety percent effective. Which again isn't going to. Suddenly you know. I don't just get the vaccine and problem solve but you know it shows that things Implying tens of returning to normal which is very good news. And and i think what you need to reset Consumers are still pretty confident. You know the fact that we say these massive surge in retail trade when people come out of lockdown shows that they you know people do want to spend and feel some level of confidence in the future that things will return to normal. It will it so the last one for me before we wrap it up. There is Clearly when you have a property market that's been underpinned and largely absorbed the biggest expect event experience Since back to the great depression side part of that was because it was just wonderful. Lack of policing given you out of the preeminent listing saw in the country. Are there any insights that you can give us in terms of observations that you sing about increased listings in victoria now Scott to do that bit a bit across the country because we run around the country and boy old different types of markets stories that scientists. There's no not helping. Yeah no i. I mean we all i think that Yeah instead of an walls. I mean we have look at early early in the pandemic united the first two weeks. But the lockdown said the two of march we not only plummeting in search activity in officer plummeting listings but what happened was Search out pretty. Creepy listing fans. Back and other to improve. Melvin thing particularly problematic because it was very hard to to sell and buy in the pandemic with people stuck in the kiro radio and arkansas inspections band so there was a lot of problems which you know we're team will will lie waiting to about backing listing volumes but obviously open has missed out on that spring sowing periods. We you typically the time in which we say the the mice that tv so The confidence crazy typically say listings. Increase the way that happens over the coming months starting seat graphs in intently with your reports to save Listings jerry Abnormal say's given the light they by the agency can't see them in melbourne until we strive to divert but a few of them Looking at their if we'll cusco men. We wanted philip. Few spots in that John review movie interesting. I spoke to some agents. I do expect to be working through january which is very unusual. You know clay agents take january off and he said come back though towards the end of the month but the piggly melbourne giving things so quiet. I think it'd be some quite came to to get things moving and kp activity going through the funnel. It now ethica at gearing up for a footballing locked. I have done before. So i'm sure that translated to extra listings. Hi it's always a pleasure chatting Aside generous your insulin surmising. Europe cult faisal economic developments around the country. Appreciate you coming on to the perfect. Catch hey thanks for having me flex listening. You can listen to the property. Catch h. every week Thursdays three pm and you can check us out on the property. Catch doc on hold why he before you go if you're new to our community ernest. A handful of episodes hourly recommend that you go all the way back to episode number one where we unpacked all of the foundations when it comes to property investing for those of you the mob. Illuminate tom poor of good. Good news for you. We have a binge. God you can download straightaway which summarizes the first twenty episodes. Where ben and all i. I'm the foundational pillars of the abcd. And so much more and you can get that straight away. If you go to the property catch will come dodi ford slash tpc twenty. You can download and consume it whenever you want. 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