117: VOYAGE TO THE BOTTOM OF THE BARREL Our trade future with guest Dmitry Grozoubinski
The Starlight lounge presents an evening with the progressive box. Let's you go tickling the ivories. He just saved by bundling home and auto progressive gonna finally by ring for that gal of yours. Hugo, send my condolences. This next one freed, there's. In my all, thank you. Progressive casualty insurance company and affiliates. Discounts on able in all states or situations. Hello and welcome to the last minute remaining acts night before the elections edition like a student, who's wasted the entire year on call of duty and delivery for frantically cramming. And trying to understand what's going to happen with luck, you'll be hearing this late on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning so we can give you last minute guidance on who to vote for, if not. Well, it's too late. Now I. I'm rose Taylor. And I've got two of our regulars here, Nina, Schick, writes and broadcasts on politics, Brexit, and disinformation for Bloomberg sky in the BBC and she's the one who coined the new name for post Brexit, Brinson reverse Turkey. What was leaving never quite managing it. Hina. If we get another vote he refers Turkey voting for Christmas. I think once were verse Turkey, we might be, you know, heading into dark places, so maybe we'll have a vote on whether or not to bring capital, punishment back, that seems like the kind of thing, reverse Turkey would want to vote on. Yeah. It's been a big week for on off the docks party funding. We'll talk about the Brexit party and pay pow later. But this week the Australian far right populist party, F, B, O got busted for planning to accept Russian dark money. What happened there? Well, this was a sting and the, the leader of the F peo-, the actually, vice chancellor of Austria got busted in a villa in a beatha willing to accept money from who we thought was a Russian oligarch billionaire. Now, find this was a staying, and it was investigative journalism at its finest, but this party has been accepting money from Russia pretty openly for the loss, you know, five or six well decade. They have a five-year cooperation agreement with leading party in Russia, where they get money. So it's not surprising. Really? There is Russian money all over this party. So as what you might cool competences supply, but it's even more crop office. Yeah. Also with us is, Ian dont editor of politics, stockholder, UK, who is basking in the glow of a successful Romania acts live in London last night. Palo in high was alive show. Apparently, there's power card, and you had to go totally unplugged. That's true. You know it was quite the boat. The cut was actually great attorney was less the square or something. But it was really nice because, as soon as it happened, which has soon the front of the stage and hosted of atmosphere, sort of change because suddenly people would just talking whenever they felt like can shouting questions and making jokes. And you're like well as soon as the technology fails, it becomes sort of joint endeavor. So actually, to build us the half where the power had gone was favorite Hof. Don't even go the audience to indicate their voting preferences by cheering. How did that go, but it was extremely scientific, and we can confirm now the way that the European actions gonna work out. It's going to be a landslide for dens and no one's gonna vote for labor or the Brexit body. You'd never have guessed interesting. Apparently you made a powerful case for prime minister Boris Johnson being good for remain why. That's frankly, a very cynical misquote from offered so forcedly case. Presenting. Bush. And I think I did a very job of making that proposition. Vaguely sort of convincing good. We have to mention milkshake week, even the words in the week was milk flake, which has like some kind of very Sochi coup. Flight in it. What do you say when people claim this is political violence, and don't complain? What do you do? They do. They have point tool. I, I didn't think it's first of all, we need to be clear about the things that we are discussing never seen so many pose clutched with, with such strength. And so, brutally, let's be clear if you assault someone. It's not. Okay if someone feels intimidated, by the things that you would doing to the point where they won't be able to make that statement with us at a protest or a speech. That's not. Okay. That is a separate thing to the tradition of humiliation, and disdain as expressed by throwing shits at politicians now, that is was rotten fruit. It was Inc. Edgewood heath, it was eggs for pretty much almost every prominent member of their labor party at some point loss. Before. Press go. It's not as if this is some everyone being oh my God. What has happened to our discourse on the phase nothing is happening. This is basically on the soft end. And this brother cynical attempt to sort of try and pretend that, that is a form of actual sews, or violence, or at its very worst. You've mentioned it even in the same fucking sentences. Joe cox. How dare they and that actually comes from a strategy. It is the strategy is used by the Brexit parties would have gone pain, and sort of the Royal tears, a whole, which is this sort of game of the ratio of sensitivity when it comes to anything to against then the demand is that they have to be extremely sensitive about the manner in which it has done, if you ask them, tough questions on Andrew more, that is the establishment coming down. If you have an investigation by an electoral commission that is nights of conspiracy. If you throw anything you do is not tolerable, but in terms of what they can fucking do they get to do whatever the hell they done. Well, please Najjar for goes around took my he's going to pick up his rifle he plays. This extrordinary game app thing as if he's warning about violence. What actually encouraging it, which is an almost instantly reflected by the treatment, predominantly towards women outside of parliament by extremely aggressive men who will clearly to stop their rights of free speech. So this whole game, I think Laura liberals aboard into oh, how terror we had a milk shake thrown. I've just got out any baffling from the star. It's a very exciting week, especially for trade, not and because our special guests is Dimitri grows. Wenski Australian trade negotiator at the WTO and founder of explain trae dot com which does what it says on the tin. It explains negotiations and trade policy. Liam folks, please add to your bookmarks. Dmitri is the man who told Marshall plan fantasist Daniel Kucharski MP that the EU is being very ungrateful, given the UK defeated, the Nazis at Stalingrad the Persians, Mythili and Saruman is healthy. Dimitri, unwelcome see remain the axe. Thank you. And let me say, I have never saved more pushback than not film Appalachia comment, because like the Persians one, but I didn't think that was the point of people were very, very passionate about it. The persian. They're angry. Absolutely. I got the everybody cracked open the copy of the three hundred. Comex. Face. He killed a giant, but they still lost. We don't hear much about trade anymore from the Brexit is, do we white ways that, sir? I mean, this is the thing you do when you don't. So what, what this effect drives me mental. So at some point, I will begin melting this microphone with she'll frustration. But what you get is you get. They will talk about trade right up until a minute. You push back in a way that they con- talk around by just blasting out vague platitudes will scientific terms at that point, they will take office that back and say, listen, the referendum wasn't about trade, which look I mean, people voted leaving remain for all sorts of different things. I've been very clear since I got into this hell scape that I'm off judgment on anything outside of my lane. I'm not a UK citizen. Not even any us citizen. Monique resident I'm essentially an alien sent from alpha centauri to be baffled by political. And so, and so they that, that is kind of fair enough. But it always begs the question if it's not about trade while you constantly on TV lying about the trade elements of them, and again I without waiting into the politics. It wasn't a ninety ten referendum where you could go. Yeah. Okay. Some wild promises were made about economics, but, you know, he was such a little. It was so close that to help people turn around and go, well, if we've been honest about the fact that from a trade perspective. This is one hundred percent downsides and has no upsides of any kind except ones we've imagined. And it'll be usually disruptive the idea that, that couldn't possibly have swayed enough people and therefore justifies like that lying doesn't matter is insufferable. But to answer, your question directly the reason you don't hear about it is that they've gotten to this point where the fact that the referee. Andom happened now justifies, the referendum, we no longer, even discuss whether Brexit is objectively, a good idea. That's not on the Brexit party's platform. Whether have one, but if they did it doesn't appear to be on it. What's on it is there was a referendum. We have to honor the verb the people, and so the trade elements, the national security elements the geopolitical elements. None of that matters anymore to them to the kind of mean they're placing because what they're trying to put front and center as people voted do you on that or not? That's why you don't hear about trade. Plus, we keep making fun of them. A very handy guide for journalists on how to interview people about trade, we will cherries on social media. And in the introduction, you say the field is packed with very confident, but utterly clueless chances who prey on the technical nature of the subject matters, despite a to nonsense lane with enough impressive-sounding terminology to appear credible. Did you have anybody in mind? Not in mine. I mean, this is this is kind of the, the whole Brexit trade debate in the Nacho, isn't it way? It's inevitably somebody out that talking about article twenty four of the GATT, an interview is sitting in front them going. Well, God I've read that. That's not right. But I mean, I don't know the nineteen forty seven Gat down to the sub paragraph, and I don't wanna look silly or bias by challenging this person getting dunked live on air. So I'm just gonna Fara my brow, and gnawed thoughtfully. Well, looking the slightest bit Julius to give me cover on the YouTube video, and then move right, pasta. It's you see it over and over again. I was in an interview with the leading intellectual of the pro Brexit trade movement. Shanka sangam we'll being interviewed and we love him. He's apparently very personable managed never been anything but lovely to me, but he was out that and he was he was asked the question a very direct question about a what? Cutting tariffs to zero on textiles would do to a very specific industry that the channel four I think it was had run a kind of second on before and he pivots to talking about trade defence and anti-dumping measures. And he's strings kind of these Sobel's again. And it's all I mean, what he was saying was broadly, factual, correct factually. Correct. It wasn't had nothing to do with the question. But it allows them to defuse this question into the aether of willow. Loud sounds hod an economist this agree about it. Let's just move right along. So I mean, no, no one tickle. We're going to return to our school twenty four later because I know. Dimitri is going to help us on pick. The elections maze loss. Try with the so-called lab was it WIP web, I think websites, better city. Therefore's more purpose. Yeah. Absolutely. And the latest in this information and astroturf thing, but first, a quick message from Nina, we debuted are very stylish and on trend ultra remainder range of mugs and t shirts at remain axed live in London last night. And we'll be making them available to existing patriot bekker's and new supporters very soon to sign up to support us on patriot. And you'll get your podcast date early unless it's a weird emergency week like this week and many weeks. End of October. I think there'll be a big emergency. Just putting that out there. Plus, your choice of classic or brand new Romania x t shirts and mugs and a weekly call him from the panel, and our monthly extra episode Ostra maniacs as well is literally better than being a member of the Bilderberg group with your own private shallow in Davos. Stick to the elite. Search patriot remain axe to find out more or just look on our Facebook page. Also, don't forget, our Mark fronts. Hawaiian p war stories writing challenge son, does two hundred words of your finest battle action storytelling. Featuring the captain hurricane of the ER g the best entry wins a special. I've been up the jungle with Mark Francois t-shirt love it. And we'll read it out to the show to E mail your entry to info at remain acts dot com. With the subject line, eight half hot, Mark. Yeah. By Monday twenty-seventh of me. Yes, we've given you an extension just like Donald tusk. Thanks, nina. Okay. The deal is back except it's not the deal anymore. It's the web on Tuesday night. Theresa May made a big new offer in the withdrawal agreement, Bill and already everyone is briefing. That is definitely going to fail in wants new in the web. Is it definitely going to fail? Zuma Sunni unify went and fat. I think it's, it's looking increasingly not do that. We'll ever see it actually go through vote. It's going so badly right now. And so it wasn't you in it. There's, there's two parts of that. The first part is she got from his, his, she'd made various people in stock moon in there. So as you did the problem is the, the Brady prominence, which is, you know, the alternative things on the Buddha of law. Everyone's flying unicorns so chucks that in that with, with this sentence of and would have done it by the end of twenty twenty. And then when you look at the sentence crisis, we will seek to have done it by the end the twenties ego seek money. Maybe she's not actually going to chief this in reality. Lisa Nandy us on the labour benches. Who's this sort of real reconciled with Brexit sort of figure most of what she was demanding, which Komen's vote. Outlining the objectives of the feature trade negotiation, and having a vote on, on the outcome of it, it's pretty much international. There's a good thing to have charted in there. And, and then there were a couple of new bits. The new bits were some sort of customs something. Now, we saw the four options that it had milling around in labor, what we thought they were which streaming the confusing collection of belly articulated ideas, there were rumors that she was going to bring back the sort of customs partnership idea. She wasn't that explicit quite yesterday. It seemed like that's what she was talking about. She said look, we've got this we've had it for a while. We're gonna put it phone with they're going to be great because wasn't quite explicit about what it entailed. She is talking in the Coens as we record this, by the way. So she may have been more explicit by now. The ShinMaywa fucking have been and the second Paul them was the people's based stuff and the people who vote stuff. It's the classic sort of thing where she says the word that you wanna have room. And then when you look at what the broom and Vos you like if it was a part in your hands. In this case, it was, you know, on the Bill, I will put for us to have a vote on whether we have a referendum later. So you'll know the Bill does not enact a referendum. It's not a complementary, you know, measure anything that it is basically just saying, if you do this. We might be able to hundred days. Now, of course, it's worth remembering anyone can put down amendments a committee stage on do so the government isn't saying he's going to do this thing anyone pecan just put vote in the movement. This is where we want to refer. So she hasn't given them anything that they don't already have. He's like offering me more fingers, I have many things in the world that I want, but I didn't need any more fucking fingers market Bubby fund used to them. It's just community mean so that's basically what she gave him as a classic strategic error. She always makes she gets just a teeny bit over here, but not enough to get people on side. But more. So the says you news is people from the other side, because the so alienated, and they rotated by what she's done. Yeah. Because I thought Labor's position on a second referendum was shall we say nuanced? But. If you feel it seems to me that she's learning from from Jimmy Kuban, and who knows. Maybe that's a good thing Meena. She's also pledged a commitment to work as an environmental protection. Why would anyone trust that when her successor gold, he might be Boris Johnson? Can rip it up. Yeah. I mean why would anyone trust that? When her potential successors, have literally said they would on. On the they, you know, potential conservative PM's have talked about this ready and so it's meaningless. In fact, her entire statement yesterday was meaningless, I didn't even follow it to the extent that Ian didn't because I already. Well, we already knew what the top line would be. She's gonna make this appeal it's going to go down badly. And we are essentially in the same position, we have been since we finished the negotiations with the EU in November last year Dmitri if the sticking point is a fool MU customs union that the Tory right won't accept a, we have going to see solid proposals that they will accept or is it just no point now in trying to feed the beast, we'll just kind of unclear what the Tories will the hard, right? Tories one tout of this. Because if the position is we want absolute full control over UK trade policy forever. Then in addition to not being clear how they have a plan to sign free trade agreements, which are all about. Out binding, you'll control of elements of your trade policy. A customs union doesn't do that. But his fundamentally irreconcilable with what I think, layby by is trying to do which is to maintain kind of as close as they can possibly get it to friction less tower free goods trade with the continent. I think the bigger issue than can they find the votes for does, it's just not that good, Nigeria. I mean both of what they're looking at is just not great ideas from a trade perspective. So there really is nothing if there's nothing she can do to keep the on board. There isn't even the smallest chard said a few of them will come over and that's enough labor and peas will come over that she might push it through. Or do we thinking that will be that's out of the question in the beginning, the exact otherwise that sort of fleeing? I'm I don't see any movement from labor guys at see any movement from, you know, people vote labor types of people's very put out an Email shortly afterwards going point-by-point reputation. You're not going anywhere here Jimmy from the sort of Brexit reconciled labor. I also think that there's a stage here now where it even if it was a better proposition than it is a nurture it can work by virtue of it being her putting it folds. And that's really what you just think even though I have my sort of stasis instincts, or just thinking, constantly, the end result of which have been at school. We could is, we'll be the most boring possible thing that could happen, which is why she keeps on surviving and guiding, but she has to be an end point to that on it today this week. It started to feel like that this must be engaged now. And it's, it's the loyalist the traditional made Louis story, but is starting to the whispers. They're probably this nonsense thing to say, but it's I think it's fifty fifty whether she's prime minister by the time that we next recording upset. Wow. So seeming Boris Johnson takes over. And it looks more more likely will are we just going to slide along to know deal? Always he gonna turn everything around and through sheer force of will and personality and general Britishness bring us. Bring us to a deal that simultaneously, such as FIS, the G, the labor party, the and anybody else. Negotiated. That's exactly how it always works. Irreconcilable red lines and then somebody with a degree from Oxford, and the kind of accent, you automatically defense into the room comes in sees notched, an Infinity gauntlet, and the reality just reshapes around the toughness. Well recorded. That's one of the US China trade was going so well, because I mean Trump just through sheer art of the deal and toughness is just pushing it through, you guys will see I really goes, I'm worried about. Let's move onto those European elections. Voting opens. Tomorrow Thursday twenty first inmate I know about you. But I'm excited. I'm always excited. Even when it's going to be dreadful. I just love elections. We did. Excited when I see the car. We did it surprise hustings podcast last week with the key national remain parties. We had some feedback from listeners say, why did you have labor on? They're not remain party. Do think they had a point in. We can say that. I mean the labor is appealing for remain very way the Brexit while the pros. Najjar frogs pays lip service to it. But, you know, there's nothing that is not there is an argument about what neighbors policy is exactly. And though, I you know, I don't agree with this idea of its policy is I know obviously objectively literally is policy is Brexit. But the reality is that David doesn't exist as a unified organization. So it's at any one time, it's a sort of artificial time stamp who've wherever the internal struggle is, and the internal struggle has lots remains, and then you've got the candidates for loads of remains in lots of siege. You're going to sit there thinking, well who, who is it exactly that I want if there's going to be the Brexit guy or it's going to be enemies, towed, or Andrew donors? You're going to be night, well pretty United labor fest. What the thing comes down to. So whether that's not mine tension. I know that's not actually technically really what I think people should be doing. Do you think maybe needs to be towards a lesson in this election? Nevertheless, there are lots of people who are very credible who a hugely admired who do think that new be crazy. I think not to include them in the discussion, and then they have to be able to stand up and say why it is that remains should vote for them despite. Their leader. And whether policy is run out the Brexit's have lost people that have Brexit any cost remain as people that are remain. But here our milder Lewis he's here. The other concerns that I need that was playing because the two things that happened to quite close together that was playing on my mind when that exchange took place, except I mean, this is like if the Titanic had hit the ice bag, and I will running an election for captain. And one of the candidates refused to take a position on lifeboats really passionate about what the band plans. Passion for the band lie. Tombs sick of swing classics. We're sinking you need to make a decision about whether it's women and children fast will trade experts and I have a strong. The most recent polling from yougov puts the Brexit party on thirty seven percent. The lithium second on nineteen percents labor third thirteen percent and the conservatives fifth at seven percent below the greens. What should remain as be saying on Monday when the results come out and narrow Naito fraud is crawling all over the place. So I don't think you should be disheartened if the Brexit party comes first because they likely will we all know that Farraj is a bit of a, you know, it's the cult of firearms. So the fact that he's founded, this new self promotion vehicle. Look at it in the historical context how you did in two thousand fourteen they go twenty seven percent of the vote. And I think that, you know, they'll get a few points more this time around, but it is broadly in line with how he has performed in the past. Maybe a bit better that isn't enough to be this revolution that he's claiming is happening in middle in England like gardens and pups across middle England. Right now, the second point to make is that I hope that it sends a message to both labor as we've discussed in-depth on this podcast. And I think he'll send a message to the conservatives as well. Admittedly. It'll be the wrong message that they take from, you know, the wreckage they'll take that as an, you know, a signal for them to out pharaohs far. So why they have to become more. No dealey. They have to amp up the rhetoric on no deal. And the next prime minister is gonna be really throw Shas on his new deal rhetoric whilst I believe. So let's say we have a new prime minister pm Boris or rob. I don't think they actually want to trigger no deal, right? So they're just going to amp up the rhetoric whilst hoping that parliament in the end will save them from having to go there. But if that happens, then the chances of, you know, reverse Turkey or potentially even remain increase, maybe in the long run was the same sort of boat with with most of the figures. I mean, there's two ways of splitting remain leave or one of them is, you just get rid of labour, and the Tories together and just say, we don't know what these votes mean because this fucking with other took him though, so let's just ignore them. Green's plight us in P change. You. And on that basis, you get, I mean for comrades and yougov you get pretty much neck and neck, the remain parties, vessels Brexit, both for opinion, which is oppose his name that I just despise saying I wish they would quit. So just quit fucking opinion, rather than this anyway. That would give Brexit of seven point eight, according to today's, however, an interesting thing because if we'd have another a friend in that actual thing of excluding, the Tories and labour, doesn't actually really work. The truth is guys won't be voting. So if you put them in, and you treat the conservative voters as, as a toots, and with the labor voters as Romania's, which is not quite true for about one in four investors wouldn't about that. But it's generally sorta true the picture changes quite a bit. So then opinion puts them neck and neck, yougov gives a five point lead to remain and comrades gives him massive thirteen point lead to remain now, I know that this is digging down to try and find a time and then the rough of the I, I get that. But nevertheless, in terms of the it's very easy to sit watching TV. And just stop by those most to take on this. Idea that the country is just biting at the bit. You know for Brexit Brenton birth. But the truth is in the country, nothing has changed in this situation. What has happened is that we have seen the sheer extent of remains political leaders inability to work together and to construct an emotionally articulate effective message. And we've seen just how good they are at it. So in the next morning, the thing you should be asking yourself. What is it that we can do, if there is a second referendum to stop that shit from replaying? Speaking of the conservatives, which he would doing Nina. We'll talk about defecting Tory voters centered on Brexit betrayal. But Joan Harris retina interesting thing about disaffected Tory remains in the guardian this week. And he said it feels to me as if something is afoot akin to the mast waking up to the state of the country. The happened in nineteen Ninety-seven, only this time there is no universally popular political force that can mow Poppel. The exile is Tony Blair's Labour party did and we have seen, you know, we've seen a bit of a fightback from Tory remain as this week with Michael Hesseltine standing up again. And then, Matthew Perez said that he would vote lip Devon, and he thought any Tori remained should vote lip them. And this is John Harris. Roy are that really that many of these people, do you think I think there are many? I think was it. The words of one cabinet minister recently where he said, if you go anywhere whereas, you know, a potential voter has books on their shelves and they're. Don't go to. They're not going to be voting for us. But I do think the conservatives will pivot more towards the Brexit party. And I think that this is a mistake that labor is making as well. Right. So that the conventional wisdom that it's working class labor who like really support the Brexit vote. And therefore they, they can't become more of a party over Mainers. I think the data shows that that is factually incorrect. It's actually kind of the upper middle class kind of Tory voters who are more Brexit t- than the lower working classes, and is just to follow on the point of what in just said, you know, there's I don't think the country has seismically changed when it comes to public opinion on Brexit, if anything were split right down the middle. And the question is, how do you mop up the remain vote in a current and successful way? And these elections are very much going to be a demonstration of the fact that, that doesn't currently exist post Olsen pivoted a little bit too, not quite remains, but certainly the less extreme wing of the Tory party. This week that feeling that amber Rudd in particular might be falling into line behind him. You know almost almost as if they were accepting the inevitable and just trying to change his mind, rather than anything else. But you you're not you're not convinced that Boris would definitely go for not law. You. I'm not convinced of that. I mean Boris is ultimately out for himself and despite all the bravado of, you know, weaken stomach on odeal Brexit. And then the you will come back negotiating to us. I mean Dmitri is the. Once we're on fire. They'll be out. Exactly. It's amazing. How cavalier politicians are about this fine. But I think the realities of what actually happens if we go into deal. Brexit archery and borsch Johnson and the other cabinet ministers will have been briefed on this extensively. Not only by the treasury, but also in terms of, like national security, you know, it could be uttered Sastre I mean I'd love to, I don't think he would really be willing to take us there, because I think then that is a conservative party finished. And he, he will be finished after that we go into such on chartered political territory is very difficult to see how PM Boras who takes us over the cliff into no deal. Brexit, emerges, victorious as Churchillian candidate that he's always imagined himself to be what do you think would happen in the event of a note? He'll look I mean obviously, you're GDP would increase by about twelve percents of God. Patrick men for the article about. And he's very confident. I think let's focus on the negotiations with the EU because I think that's a really important question. Why now the base advantage. The UK actually has in negotiations with the EU is that the EU has a preference for smooth off ramp. The UK and a you a traveling on a bus in the highway, the UK has decided to get off this highway and the EU wants to minimize this reaction to themselves in that businesses when that happens if answer, there's an inclination anything that the negotiating is detracting from a status core, there a way things work. Now there's a way things will work in the future. That way will be more limited. And so you kind of pulling away from something that exists, once you go over the cliff edge. And the AU is under trade law on just what they will do is review, you back to cheer rules and take away that status core. Then negotiations begin not from a place of where you guys are today, but where you'll be on that day, which is bloody nowhere. So there's all of these assumptions of light. Well, we'll do. Yeah, we'll do this FTA and we'll immediately. Well, of course, we'll get tariff complete tower free access. If I'm an Asian ago, she had on I'm sitting across the table. I'm going why it's one thing to continue existing arrangements, and roll them smoothly from one thing to another nothing's changed. But if you yank that steering wheel left crash off the little railing on the highway and their plummeting into the undergrowth the idea that they will just begin the Goshi actions as if you'll still cruising along by that side is very optimistic. Sir. You know, on people keep inviting me for meetings, and they leave more depressed when they sat down a swear. I'm a fun person. Everyone in the room just loft. And then this. And a single tier is rolling slowly down my cheek. But as what will happen in Niger, I think if you look it Theresa May's plot, and it's very hard to describe like, if she was a character on, like, game of thrones and had survived, as many travails that she had you'd be like they're really moving away from Georgia, Amman's you sneeze, and you get something head kind of ethos. But on this whole time is that none of these people, especially in the but including boss Johnson, whose somewhere in the middle wants to be driving this bus, jarring note, nobody wants to be responsible for Brexit day. Because it'll either be not as good as they promised or really, really bad. And like Anzani ends, right? To say it could be fifty fifty chance on any given day at some point that runs out. And then some point one of them goes, you know what I'm gonna roll the dice on this and hope hope I've built up enough raisins to blame her that. I can survive being the one at the wheel before we move on. Let's go back to the Brexit parties fundraising, and it's interesting social. Media behavior for a minute. The electoral commission has rated sorry visited the party's age accu- after Gordon Brand raise concerns over the legality of the party's funding. It's been receiving gifts of under the legal notification fresh holder, five hundred pounds via paper, which critics claim is fishy. Brown also said the European parliament should look at the disclosures last week. The fraud should received about four hundred and fifty thousand pounds from Aaron banks when he was supposedly skinned and earlier this week BuzzFeed noted the Brexit. Potus Twitter behavior is old to say the least with brand new accounts, pumping out high volumes of messaging about nothing but Brexit. It's strained for hours of the day this matters because unless you tell Twitter twenty show you tweets in Dato order from the people who follow it will throw Nigel Farage and the Brexit parties atop, your feet based on the number of re tweets and likes they post get I switched this week. And it was just such a relief suddenly Niger fraudulent Brexit party went away and yeah, it was a huge relief. And if you look at those retweets that they're making an amazing number seemed to be from. Count that want to make America great again. Who arguably don't have a law invested in Brexit? So does the Brexit parties funding dodgy because lots of campaign is take pay Powell on all sides of the argument, does the Brexit parties funding, look Geneina, because lots of campaign is take PayPal, if it's definitely dodgy anything, the European Commission is looking into a given that the electoral commission doesn't have the resources or the time to look into it. Yeah, I just got to finish myths to fill that it is dodgy. I'm going to go out there and say it looks dodgy Russia has formed for this across Europe, what sort of evidence is there of them interfering in Britain. There's those of evidence that Russia into feared, not only in Britain, but across the world, we know that Russia interfered heavily in the twenty sixteen referendum, they interfere by not only by pushing so at the time, they wouldn't have just pushed for Brexit, but they push for maximum confusion. Right. So you so. Dischord they fund for right? Parties, far left parties, all across Europe. This is known documented it's been going on for years. And that's because it's not like it's a huge secret in twenty twelve. Ladimir Putin publicly came out, made a huge speech and said that the e u was an existential threat to Russia and tears idea of Eurasian customs union. So Russia has when Russia funds parties in Europe, again, it's important to remember that it's across the political spectrum, and they do this, in many ways, either through business loans, Bank loans, think tanks only guards who you meet, and villas in a beatha, etc. Etc. And what's the background to is maintenance payments from banks? Could he be in breach of your you parliament roles so okay? First of all the European parliamentary president, Johnny since it to this advisory committee, which is sort of watchdog the kind of payments that any peace, get they declared as the transport declared to events. I don't know the details beyond that of how those rules Oprah it seems that it would be on the face of it pertinence to those questions. But then maybe details that escaped me are thought the figures in channel four's viscous, we're extraordinary. Which is the scale and I knew this is an obvious point. But especially when you spend three is being cooling, elitist by these guys, and it turns out that you just being all my mates. Give me thirteen grand a month to live in Chelsea thirteen crowds of fucking water now because it extrordinary his driver and car in these, these trips to the US. It's a scared of it. I was genuinely surprised by just how much money was being sent to him by banks auto Veritas day. You know, it's just makes payments because I was trying to sort of, and you think or this is on top of his one hundred I think too euro thousand year. Oh, any peace Alary, which I think has been slashed in half because he was breaking the rules, do it spending. And, and he I think he made seven hundred grand over the course of a thing for years in terms of media repair Ince's dinner. How much you getting paid more by the fucking BBC than I am. Many of the guys go taking lots of money. And of course, by general four doing this thing, going Britian, the fussing the Brexit party did was just banned them from attending their events, this classic Trump sort of schoolbook thing. And I think quite a dispiriting spent scoff twins of not many other media outlet showing enough, sorta Dougherty and still covering the events despite the fat, but one of their colleagues have been excluded. I think they've now let's channel fullback and channel four very kind again, to interfere rich Thais tonight. So we we're going to looking forward to. Yeah. Nina our listeners a probably adept to this by now. But was he tells for dodgy propaganda account on Twitter? A dog picture string of Niro's or hashtag MAGA. Yeah. All of those, but so they, they can often tell with these accounts, depending on when they were created, and if they are obsessed with certain topics, so those are often kind of troll account. I mean, maybe we would count as well tweeting about Brexit. But, you know, when it's twenty one thousand tweets in account that was basically founded just when the Brexit party launch convenient and all of those twenty one thousand tweets since then has been about pro Brexit propaganda than you're probably looking at a false account. They're pretty easy to setup. And for all of kind of Twitter's. For all of Twitter's mea culpas saying we're cracking down on the stuff. It's actually really hard for them to do it. You know what you location. You can't tell what people are base where these account, so it's, it's super super easy to say setup fake Twitter accounts. And I think that we all need to be aware that this exists than exists massively. You can buy them you can buy followers. You can wait. What? So this kind of a to, I mean, if you just want to look at it from a really cynical marketing kind of angle, you know, kudos to them in some kind of awful way because they know how to position themselves as this kind of life force of British politics and oldest astroturf ING is definitely old hype around the Brexit parties working in because of a lot of the kind of wall just marketing ploys that they're doing that. The other political parties aren't. They definitely have lots of the just human beings behind some of this counts, because I've been at the bottom of one of their parlance for the last two days, and they are so magnificently fucking stupid that I can guarantee they on Milton machine. This week's show comes with the sport for way, creators of first class luggage at standard clause. Prices away was founded by two friends who found themselves stuck at JFK with dead phones delayed flights, but it gave him an idea for luggage with power. 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All away suitcases are made from tough lightweight German polycarbonate, and they come with a unique compression system so you can fit thin. They've got three hundred sixty degree wheels for smooth ride a TSA approved combination lock and even a washable bag to keep dirty clothes separate from clean ones. They thought of everything each case comes with a lifetime guarantee, and one hundred day trial. If you decide you don't like it anytime in that period, return it for full refund no questions asked. So if you're an international traveler and come on. You're listening to remain ax. You must be just visit away travel dot com slash remain. To find out more, that's fifteen pounds of any suitcase at away, travel dot com slash remain. Use the promo code remain at checkout and send us a postcard. This week special guest is Dmitri, Vince gay. Former Australian trade negotiator and a man who has met those phantom WTO bosses that we have so much up w. WTO bosses don't actually exists. The do they the WTO has a director, general and some deputy director generals. But then not in charge of the rules that are in charge of the institution and taught to the secretariat, and this certainly not in the business of expressing opinions on legal matters of kind of domestic substance inside the UK, that's actually, the loss thing from them mines. But what is the current state at the WTO that we will be relying on when we go for no deal? Has Donald Trump, succeeded in, in deep powering it, or is it still a fairly fairly influential world organisation. I think it certainly an influential organization in what it's actually four, which is to maintain the status quo of the agreed rules, while the Trump administration has started diverging from the more and more. They are at least trying to rely on the rules of the organization that self even without twisting them in order to do, sir. They're not just kind of saying up yours and going their own way they are using legal loopholes. And ju- Bs national security findings to say, look, yes, where diverging from the spirit of the roles and the letter of the roles and some would say the rules, but we are doing so in a way that is at least considering without legal obligations. So from that affect, I mean is the UK joining an organization, the absolute fundamentals of which, which is to lock in tariffs at broadly grade levels to trade completely falling apart. Nor is that going to be really shop drop from the world's most integrated regional trade agreement. Yes. The Brexit problem in Britain is that we put complex trade issues in front of an audience sword. Ordinary voters who couldn't be expected to understand them. But now insists that they did understand them. Is there a concise way to sum up, what Brexit would mean British trade? The listeners can use in the power or over Sunday lunch. With their parents, one that doesn't rely on saying you don't understand this. No. I don't think people should be throwing you don't understand this in, in anybody's face. There's frankly, no reason people should understand this. It's incredibly complicated the way, I tend to fall back on describing it is that picture? You are trying to sell insurance or even sell apply to someone in Venezuela from London. Imagine the paperwork requirement. Imagine the costs. Imagine the logistics. Imagine all of the bureaucracy around that. And how hard that is to navigate the EU project on from a trade perspective has. Has been to chip away at that nightmare over the course of many years until it is, as easy to sell all products and many, many services, far more than any free-trade agreement has ever done to somebody in Paris, or Lisbon from London, leaving the U revert back, it might not revert all the way back to Venezuela. If you guys can avoid no deal that, frankly, the way you're going. Buy canned goods, but whatever it is, it'll full significantly significantly short of that and for the UK that's, especially problematic for two reasons, so many of your businesses rely on their business models for this integration into Europe. If you go back and look at the way the UK was promoting itself as a business centre like a week ago, you look at every page of the brochure and it's like we speak English. We have a legal system that kind of make sense. Our government's pro business before we let Boris Johnson front of a microphone. And we aren't into Europe on every single page. We are you doing to Europe? We go at into Europe European Europe and you'll dismantling and that's a huge problem. And your second problem is that your services economy, and you're increasing their services. Call me you might be the first major economy on for him services as an export become larger than goods among like major industrialized economies. That's crazy. And that's really problematic. Because free trade agreements and services a garbage you never get. Any access the four freedoms, so ridiculously unique and incredible to have been changed, and everything else has so far short of that unity, yourselves, real damage to really the hot of your future prosperity. So no, there's no it. Just to deal, China and Australia in India. Right. Right. They'll be. Can we talk about article twenty four just very briefly? This magic. This magical article of the WGN boroughs is it's seventy back on the agenda. Thanks, the Brexit party. We've mentioned this before. But can you remind our listeners what it is? And why it's nonsense because they keep on talking about it. Sure, sir article twenty four of the general agreements on tariffs and trade GATT to us. Try nuts. You can't say it, but I'm flashing gang signs at an as most bonding having more. Having a more man. He's actually in the crypt walking up and down is the part of trade law, that lets you have free trade agreements, I'm customs unions or narrowly, the whole point of the WTO was that you treat everyone the same you treat every country every country's goods the same way, as you do every other country bought article twenty four allows you to have a kind of exceptions to that. If you have a full and comprehensive free-trade again, like a serious one. The reason Brexit tears Cape bringing it up. Is there a provision in there that says, look, if your on your way to a free trade agreement like most of the way Don, you know what it's going to look like, but you're not quite ready to implement it, yet you can come to WGN membership and say, look, here is the free trade agreement. I'm going to have. Here's my schedule for implementing it I would like to put it into place bits of it now. So, for example, a lot of the tariff reductions now, and then we will tell you about our four free trade agreement when that's done. So. Have somehow transpose that into if the U K and a you have no deal then depending on your level of crazy as a kind of hard, right? Brexit Tia that even means the UK can invoke this magical article like a scroll of compel person to force the issue, not a charge tariffs on UK goods, or it means that somehow the AU will do what it has constantly underpaid. Lee said it won't Dir, which is to then go, okay? Well, in that case, we instantly put in place, an interim trade agreement that eliminates all towers. I mean it's stupid because festively the is not going to do it. And Secondly as trade. Nuts have tried to explain for now two years across every single medium, except interpretive dance. Because trust me. You don't wanna see. The tariffs on not like of all of your problems stemming from Brexit. And Lord knows there are a few. Many of them are on my website. Viteri are part of it. But in fact, they just one component that happens hit some industries hot and others the paperwork, the loss of services access. All of these other things are huge and article twenty four dozen cover them and it can't cover them. So we're services based economy, and that's gonna make things difficult under at WTO rules. So what would our economy have to look like to prosper under WTO roles? How would our industrial base have to change? It's a cer-. In the side where you'll you have wer. You've reverted back to wwl roles with your. Yeah. No deal. Having new not all happened. And let's kind of ignore the fast say, however long it takes to like, you know, the water stops running, because it turns out that the filtration liquid required is made in a in a factory in Portugal, and its stock in a queue in Calais that runs for sixteen miles. Let's kind of set that nightmare aside and say it's three years from now you've got an economy. Ideally, what you would want to do is then try to rebuild as much of what you have in the u as possible, and try to create an industrial base where it still makes sense. If you are assembling a complex piece of machinery, like say medical equipment. And you wanna source a bit of it from Germany, and a bit of it from Portugal, and then say assembled the whole thing in the UK you, you wanna create conditions with where you can do that. That's going to be really hard because fastly the issue's always going to have more frictional. Straight internally than it will with a free trade agreement or customs union partner, and Secondly, day frankly, don't have a lot of incentive to help you. You're the second thing you want to do is look, London's always going to be a financial hub. It's always going to be, it's always going to be a big center financial services legal services. The EU has every incentive to start bleeding off some of that into its own centers by making it. Incrementally more difficult for you to provide the savage says into Europe to ensure things in Europe to provide banking services into Europe. What have you legal services into Europe? But London as a huge financial sector can still thrive just to a lesser extent. By continuing to offer those services to those who want to trade into the UK to the big economy, but also to the rest of the world since it's not. I mean, this is this is it's, it's I mean this is Romania axe. So I know I'm supposed to pretend that the island will sink into the say the in a way. It's a problem with the debate that we've gotten there that we're talking about the. Orlands in into the say they issue is this is going to make things worse for the UK on every single trade. Mecham. You can still prosper like you're calling me will still grow just more, slowly. And with a huge amount of disruption for ordinary people who, frankly, don't deserve it. Speaking of, of the economy, a British still went into liquidation today, partly because of a slump in orders from the EU, and Niger for is immediately claim that the emissions trading scheme was to blame and Britain could bail out the company anyway, if it weren't for EU state-aid rules, other than that's quite true. But you can tell is there anything in at all in that argument on not an expert on British Steel or the EU emissions trading scheme. Neither is he. What I would say is, whether you're in the AG will not the AU has an emissions trading scheme. And if that determined, what depreciated their demand for steel. I mean, this is this is kind of this is the whole issue behind Brexit. Right. Whereas if you find a U regulations annoying, then post Brexit you will still have to deal with them because you're in the heart of Europe and Europe is the center of gravity of this continent in this region. But now you will no longer be in the room to veto the most kind of out their demands. All of the so if his point is, yeah, the emissions trading scheme killed British Steel while I don't necessarily buy that. But now the next e u emissions trading scheme, you steals representatives weren't, even being the room to say. Hey guys, do you wanna maybe think about what this is going to do to our community? Is there a way we can shape this that gives us a smoother all on? What are you talking about? State aid rules. I mean nice just making it up as far as I can tell. I think that's the case because plenty of European countries, protect their companies companies, they want to protect in that way. How likely do you think the no delays right now in sort of give it can you give it a percentage? Would you like to do that? Or would you. Oh, god. I'm not sure addictions. Business. I've been getting everything wrong. Directly away from minds thing. My concern is always think there's a Lou transit happens on Pappas, but a worryingly high chance, it happens by accident or it happens not as a hybrid of the two where for example, you could imagine a scenario where future prime minister wants to have no dealers okay with having their deal, but doesn't want to be the one to push the button. So what they do. Let's just to pick a name. Let's just call him be Johnson. Are that's obvious Boris. Jay, what they do is, for example when it comes to October and where the UK's inevitably often for another extension. He could just make utterly unrealistic demands. He could say condition it on the a you dropping the backstop or something, the EU internally bulks at that request says nor and he can turn around to the public. I look, I didn't want no deal house for Panton ingratiate bought the didn't wanna come to the table that is my current nightmare scenario where it kind of happens without it being anybody stated. Active by as David Andre would site by automatic application of law. Well Dmitri, what's most important aspect of the trade issue that people should take away? It's hard. You're. When you guys doing. You're maniacs shots. If you want to subbranch, try just print out across on birth sides. You're playing with decades long agreements that underpin aspect of the economy. Nobody's even thought about, there was a story a couple of months ago where one of the Brexit planning departments. And as I understand it ninety percent of UK citizens are currently working for Brexit planning department, discovered that the pellets that you K export is used the wooden boxes that they use weren't going to be compliant with a you law anymore and nobody could ship anything. I mean, this is the kind of things where like I'm at I'm at traffic's. But I'm paid to think about this stuff. It would have it didn't academy at eight occurred to others who work in that specialized area. It's literally like you've got the finest Swiss watch, and you just truck on rocks at its mechanism without knowing what's going to happen, next. So. The biggest thing to understand is firstly. There are no easy answers to this. None of this stuff is magic, and as a general rule, the fundamental principle of trade negotiations integration is that you want to be integrating to make things together. That is why NAFTA exists that is why the African content of free trade area grit exists. That's why mex- swipe the EU exists, if you think of the, the capacity is us, if you think about the economic strength of the US why they so powerful comically was a bunch of reasons. But one of them is that you can combine New York capital with California IT with manufacturing in the mid west, and you can pull all of those, and you can create products that are able to draw on all of those sorts of comparative advantage and compete globally in a way that say, Wyoming by itself, couldn't or even California by itself would struggle to that, that massive strength is an. Asset the EU does that by merging UK know-how with Portuguese Portuguese know-how with German manufacturing techniques, moving away from that runs directly, contrary to everything. We have learnt about what you can do with trade policy to make people's to make countries more prosperous, and to create better jobs. That is the fundamental issue. There's no getting around that fact. That's pretty. Thank you. I was yesterday. That's true for pm. Consummate what? The end of the show is here, and that means something else for the Brexit time capsule. Dmitri grows of Inskeep whispering into our blast proof chamber of stuff will need if we ever leave the. I think you should stick in this someone that can take the issues role as the cause of all of your problems, especially the ones you felt. In other words, this fairy animal that yeah, yeah. And now here's Keith brand without closing European language clip in German Ville, Nate dusted Brexit. So Einem end the calmed, father's done, kind of remain yaks Meg Eben fit that means I don't want Brexit to end because then there will be no more 'Romania axe, long Keith do owned a hats and we have an IMF addicts design Guinot, vian friends, we need your European language clips record something short, and moderately clean on your phone, and send it to us at info at Romania extra com will use the best ones, and that's the end of the show. Dmitri goes, Vince ski, thanks for coming on Romania. Are you looking forward to an exciting summer of trade negotiation starts? If it ever starts. But when he does, you'll be there are absolutely. That's good news. I'm reassured a little bit. Just two times. Well the winning one. Thanks everyone for listening now. Pray silence for our theme. Tune demon is a monster by corner shop and a roll-call. Some of our latest patriot. Bekker's. Hello. And thanks for me to Gail Cooper, Nick plumb, Paul, Giarra Wiki, Ian Hallard Simon Edwards, Mark Ladan trees, the Ambra, David Hornby, and Grimshaw Christine William Hearst Simon Kittle and Mike thirty eight percent for me to Joan Doolan Andy hill, trying to listen Daniel hunt. Kevin sub Andrew Filipo Megan s Jeremy strain, you've made is of can. Boyko Shia Barbara Altman Nick booth, and Tim O'Donovan. Hello, for me to see Pitney like mccready, Brendan David's, I'm the big to Anderson, pay comet Helen Bryant Cathy Simon, Woolley casing tiller fill and data. We'll see. We'll next. Maniacs was presented by Russ Tyler with an dont and Nina Schick. The producer is Andrew Harrison and audio production was by may Elsie bath and Tom Bullen at it at all studios for maniacs is a put Mazda's production. Cleaning, and now an ad from dad. All right. Save money on car insurance when you bundle home and auto with progressive got off. Right. What is this? This is good. Wow. Where did you get this? I'm talking to you with the hair. Yeah. Where did you get this good stuff, solid? That's not veneer that solid stuff. Progressive can't save you from becoming your parents, but we can save you money when you bundle home and auto. Progressive casualty insurance company affiliates and other insurance. Discounts not available in all states or situations.