Monday 20 May

Automatic TRANSCRIPT

You're listening to the briefing, first broadcast on the twentieth of may twenty nine teen on monocle twenty four. Live from London. This is the briefing on, Monaco, twenty four coming up tonight is not about me. It's not a bath. Even the liberal party tonight is about every single Australian who depends on the government to put them. Australia's prime minister clings to power against all expectations. We'll ask how Scott Morrison managed to pull it off. Also ahead, the UK's government is attempting to pass its beleaguered Briggs at deal for a full time, but has any of the detail in it, actually changed. Plus, the latest on a corruption scandal that has enveloped Austria's government and will have a Eurasian bonanza to all that ahead on the briefing live from London. Luster Elliot's conservative coalition as clung to power following a shock election victory at the weekend, Scott Morrison's, liberal party began Saturday night as the underdog with polls, pointing to a labour majority. But by the evenings end Morrison was declaring a miracle as the opposition leader Bill shorten offered his resignation. Let's get more on this. Now with John Huston who led astray lease liberal party between nineteen ninety and nineteen ninety four join the prime minister called his victory a miracle we use surprised by Saturday's result. Well, according to the polls, it wasn't Mary Coolum in the polls actually hitting the numbers, right? To forty eight that the wrong way round. They had toddy winning in the loopholes coming distinct second, and it turned out to be exactly the other way round. So that puts polling into question. But in those two were certainly miracle I don't think the expectation in the government was that they could win although. I think the prime minister Renai fairly effective negative campaign against the short dated. The said you know, your voice your vote is on them for me or for Bill show very, very you get Levi for short, you get short shortens always made unpopular in polling negative net satisfaction writing and the government said that he was really focused on that to hold him accountable for what you draw wanted wanted to draw and do and on the back of that. They're in a series of scare campaigns about the tie to retirees income and negative gearing on residential properties and so on which resonated, really in key elements of the electric, it was interesting to hear Scott Morrison's wording, they're really pointing to himself as the central thing to vote for, if you're going to vote for the liberal national coalition because he was, of course, put into the role after our sting, Malcolm Turnbull, the prevail. Ailing wisdom seemed to be that the liberal party simply wouldn't recover from the messy removal of Turnbull. But of course, if we look back in history, we know that Julia Gillard managed to survive her first election after Alston, Kevin Rudd tumble, one in twenty-six off to ousting, Abbott as well, and now Morrison's victory, could it be that voters, simply don't care about leadership spills, the way that we might assume? Well known earlier occasions where the spills were an issue in violations and state elections, certainly the times, the electrodes taken the baseball that to them, but it didn't carry through to this election. I think I looked at Morrison only on his merits. And as you said, he just ran a campaign boy, himself, essentially a number of the senior members of the government had retired and he didn't use to many of the others, the, the reminding members of the government, he basically ran the campaign himself everyday, and just focused on might at a contest between himself and Bill, shorten and then try to risings Audie and concern and fear. If you like about what sort of government, shorten would run. What sort of policies he would implement and a lot of it was a scam campaign though, short and, for example was going to take a decision on franking credits, which mart of. Impacted on a full to say, the Atari is that soon became an attack on retirement incomes, with the possibility of a will of a wealth, tax or a, a dance Judy. A massive scare campaign which was without any foundation. Good. I it resonated with the retirement community and that demographic the age demographic about sixty actually moved in response to this sort of scare campaign. We had lots of people calling this, the unloseable election for labour, which, of course, is quite a comfortable word to put it in their retrospectively. It must be said. But that's of course how lots of people describes the election that you'd fought against Paul Keating back in nineteen Ninety-three. Is it always too simplistic to call an election, unloseable though? I mean, certainly in this case, the polls were quite tied when they I'm happy to pass that tag over the short, and there's no problem about that after twenty five thirty years I've ever to defend it. But basically on lose -able is not no elections on Louisville. Mean there are expectations built, and sometimes as a result of poll, sometimes it's more broadly, in the vote, a community is. To who will win or should win. And there's sometimes no delegates in that sense. They've become on lose evil. But, you know, I think the, the focus of the device, has really been how much detail should you be prepared to give the elected in terms of trying to win government? It's always when there is a simple rule in Strayer basically that all positions don't we'd government government's lose them. But, you know, my package in early nineties, which was at a time of significant recession of the recession. We didn't need to have in our country abroad, vice reform agenda, almost every year, public policies and sounds of pages policy detail, which is now being seen as long as political suicide note in history. But short only focused on two or three tax concessions and that was enough though, to the as I said, the basis of escape campaign by the government against shorten and not, not only against him personally, but the sort of government, he would Li. Lead short and try to make it a issue really a class issue said he was going to text the top into town to the benefit of the average wage. Earner not quite true and retirees didn't see themselves as a top into town middle. Middle income families who had a rental property didn't see themselves as a top into ten. So he's Richard didn't help him and the public- to ov- electric policy. Dato certainly might easy for the government runs gave him. Well, as you say, John labor was quite remarkably upfront about many of its ambitious policy plans going into this election there. Now, lots of people saying that after this loss. No party will go into an election with such a clear agenda ever again. Now looking at that. I mean that might suggest a rather cynical future politics. What do you make of it? Well, politics in this country has become incredibly short term, and opportunistic mostly negative sort of daily guy is to school points on the other side or shift, climb to the other side. And, and I said, say him stances the two major parties have lost the law of electoral support back in the late non forties accounted for about ninety five percent of the vote now Sabet seventy percent as minor parties independence, so gradually pulled approaches foetal seniors are making his involved, which they might be able to bring forces on government for better government. I think that they misread the elected, the elected is, is really annoyed by the fact that they do feel, disenfranchised and ethnic. No, what the Bisi problems like the cost of living example, is a show to issue are ignored so Nita saw offing solution. Don't adding affordability or on energy prices which has rocketed through the roof. And you know, not really Salou. Here's chalk care and insurance. And so on the impact on the day-to-day cost of living of most families at the time we, why is the flat did sued record levels savings, oh exhausted and house prices a falling. So they wanted to see solutions. I don't wanna see, you know, continuation of the point scoring game in terms of longer term challenges. There's a very significant movement reflected in the number of Casey. It's about the inadequacy of the spawns response by both saw on the issue of change. They want to see proper transition strategy and, and comic plan. If you like that really looks at the transition to a low-carbon society over the next two and I didn't get that from other saw the so a lot of voter disenchantment and disenfranchisement with the major political parties that are not seem to actually being governing in their interests. A lot of civil absorbed behind him as you mentioned. Before china. Lasers scoring points on each other rather than solving problems. So the major issues are just kicked down the road. So I think the future it'd be unwise to try and go to an election without a policy started. You know, do you think if you we're prepared to sit out a medium-term agenda and Cavada enough detail consistent with that agenda? They chances agreeing reelected or elected would be much higher than my today. It'll be certainly interesting to see how both parties managed to handle things as we go into the next election, three years from now John Houston. Thanks very much for joining us here on the breathing. That was John Houston. The former leader of Australia's liberal body. Onto the business news. Now, I'm joined on the line by Sebastian Selleck from Bloomberg to best big news coming out about while way today, tell us what's happening. So this is the band that comes into force. It comes from President Trump, and he's is preventing all US companies from supplying to while actually this is hitting chipmakers in a big way Intel Qualcomm, as aliens broadcom Olivos, they've told their employees they're not going to supply while we're until further notice this is, according to Bloomberg sources Google as well, but hardware and subsurface our services, they going to cut off because, of course, Trump accusing wa of aiding Beijing in espionage. But this is also being felt outside the US and Asia here in Europe, we had Germany's Infineon falling in early trading after a report from nikei that it had hoped halted shipments to away following the ban. ST microelectronics and AM. AMS also had these some other chipmakers alway is coming out and saying it's going to continue providing security. Updates and sale services to customers using Google Google's Android. So if you have a Wally phone running Android, don't worry, you're still going to get support from then this really could disrupt the businesses of chip giants and prevent the rollout of critical five G wireless technology worldwide including in China, and that could hurt US companies that are increasing reliance on China for growth. So the impact here is really, really snowballing. Absolutely lots more snowballing to come at Saint L. Let's move along because there's more trouble at the travel company, Thomas Cook. Oh, they've had a terrible time. A three day drop of sixty percents on the markets that Baden's today tumbling to a record low. They have debt issues big time. They can't pay back this money that they, they need a lifeline loan. But in order to do that they have to set off their airline. I said the story today is about these Bonk's Ghani's reporting a payment intermediary is withholding money from Thomas Cook, this is obviously concerning. If you are a customer, if you're going on holiday, if you've books, you'll. Trip with this company, and they go under there's a likelihood humane. Okay. Your money back. There's a struggle likelihood you may not get gone whole day this summer. So it's a very potentially very dramatic outcome from this very tough business environment for European travel and airline companies because they've got so much capacity, they've called stuttering economic growth in the region, and high fuel prices. And this is creating a perfect storm that we're really seeing the effect of in Thomas creek. Particularly but does lifting of hands, for example, freezing expansion at a discount, Ryan edges this morning warning that prophet may fall. More this fiscal year. So is not alone in terms of the suffering that we're seeing here. There's a Pentti others getting affected here and the suggestion from some analysts CITIC group being one of them. Is it Thomas Cook undertakes a debt for equity swap which means that they'd have to pay the interest on the debt? But just the other day we saw them writing down the value of this saying that they see these shares being essential. Worthless, which is very damning to hear. If you're Thomas Cook shareholder, very bad news. Indeed Sebastian Selleck we'll have to leave it there. I'm afraid Sebastian and lake from Bloomberg. You're listening to the briefing. It's thirty minutes past twelve year in London. Lee, British Prime Minister Theresa may says that she will present a bold offer to the country's parliamentarians in order to get them to back her Brexit deal in what will be her fourth. Yes, you heard right fourth attempt. But has anything really changed will, I'm joined in the studio by the political journalist, and Westminster watcher, Terry St. Anthony, welcome back to the program, tearing I'm tempted to ask why. And this is being brought back yet again, it seems like the obvious question is it simply because may has run out of anything else to do. I think they've, they feel that they've got to have another ten what's going to be slightly different this time is that MP's will be asked to vote on an actual Bill. So we'll have an actual withdrawal agreement Bill that trees my hopes to introduce the parliament, and she sort of hope. Against hope, if you like this fourth time of asking that she can get MP's to agree with it. We've had lots of cabinet ministers going on there on a over the weekend. And saying this is kind of a last chance that we are straining every sinew to get this agreement through suggesting that it can be amended in the in later stages. So, you know, vote for it. Now, if you like, and we can change it later and to reasonably as talking she wrote an article of the weekend about talking about this bold new offer that, she says, as you mentioned, she's, she's going to produce but we don't know what that is yet. She's discussing that with the cabinet talks with the opposition labor party have pretty much come to nothing. Although to resume in this article was saying that she's managed to find some common ground with the labor party. But, you know, one or two resumes catchphrases, if you like over the last few years has been nothing has changed. And it's very hard to see, particularly as she's promised that she is going to leave office really quite soon. In what holds she has what new there is that she can offer actually is going to change any MP's minds. I mean it doesn't sound like the most tactical or strategic attempt to simply hope for the best. What happens if it fails well, one of the things that we know is very likely to happen, if it fails is firstly that Theresa May has said that she is going to stand down to make way for a new conservative leader. And we're already seeing over the last few days effectively. There is a conservative leadership contest in progress. I mean, I think we're up to something like twenty at least twenty conservative MP's, who have said they are possibly in the running or considering being in the running for next leader. So you've got to look at everything now really through the prism of who might lead the conservative party next, again, if it, if it doesn't pass, we are still talking about the possibility of no deal, which is now being pushed back until October, whether there will be any further extension granted, we don't know. No. All people again, talking about the possibility of revoking article fifty and going back to square one and starting over now there are various things that resume contrite offer. Both people on her own side, and people in the opposition, one of those is some kind of shift in to offering alternative arrangements over the Northern Irish board. Now again that's been tried already. It's been it's been proposed on under said they're very reluctant to reopen that whole question again. She can talk to the labor party. When she's sounds likely not to be offering more to the labor party in terms of workers rights, and environmental, protection, and so forth. Again, it seems very unlikely that many labor MP's will switch their vote because we've only had a very, very few a handful of labor MP's voting with the government in this, and she still has hasn't solved the question of Ireland and she has, as you say she has very little hold over her own party, because she said that. She's going to go. There's not much else that she can offer. She can often them her head on a plate. She can offer them something about Northern Ireland and we're not even seeing MP's who were persuaded to vote for the, the agreement last time turnaround, saying that everybody see any pointing that anymore. I mean, look, looking at this from the political perspective. However, I mean Brexit keeps getting kicked down the road as as we now but aside from being I mean, as you suggest this is leadership contest taking place, and it's, it's unofficial at the moment, but we can we're hearing lots of people saying, yes, I would like to be prime minister, basically without using those words. I mean aside from that being deeply disrespectful to the prime minister right now. What do you think that actually says about the state of British politics when the party that is supposed to be driving? One of the most consequential legislative changes in generations seems to be more interested in talking about itself right now. I think that's been certainly even the case about the conservative party for quite a while. And I think one of the divisions that comes out here is the people who think we must consider the future of the conservative party is a whole. And what does it take in order for the conservative party to, to get through this? And I think you know, if you're a conservative MP now you'd be really, really. Worried about the future of your party. We've just had the local elections where they lost upwards of a thousand seats and every one of those it's not just a seat. It's a person who goes out and knocks on doors for you and hands leaflets for you and goes to fundraising dinners for you. And you've got a lot of very disgruntled people there. The labor party is equally in disarray. I think most the major parties, one of the things we're seeing at the moment is that they can't rely on commanding the loyalty of their party members who've been with them, you know in many cases for decades. And obviously, we got the European elections coming up this week, and I think that's gonna show even more. The old two party system is not in functioning in the way that we have expected it to for the last, you know, very, many years. And I think it still remains to be seen, according to what happens next where where that goes, and, you know, whether these old parties survive in the, in the form, that we need them certainly feels that there's something's got to give at some point. We'll have to wait and see. When Terry Terry is always a pleasure to have you with us. Here's what else is making news today. The tech giant, Google has barred. The world's second biggest smartphone maker while away from some updates to the Android operating system. It's a major blow to the Chinese company and new designs of always phones are expected to lose access to some Google apps new figures suggest that Japan's economy grew unexpectedly in the three months to March the latest daughter shrugs off forecasts of contraction in the world's third largest economy. It's thought that the surprise expansion in Japan's gross domestic product was fueled by imports falling faster than exports and the miracle minute reports on Chicago's new mail, Lori Lightfoot she'll be sworn in today after winning last month's runoff vote Lightfoot is not only Chicago's first black female mayor. But he's the first openly gay leader to, to find out more about her head over to Monaco dot com and sign up to the monocle minute. This is the briefing. Twenty one minutes past the hour here on the briefing, Australia will hold an early election in September after secret video footage emerged v countries. Far-right vice chancellor offering government contracts to an alleged Russian investor in exchange for political support Monaco's Alexei Corey law reports from Vienna. In the stampede. John. Fifties inertly here for gay rights, and most field also helpful of Phillies in calcium from happen. But that's Austrian chancellor Sebastian could speaking on Saturday evening is now going to put up with Heinz Christian star anymore. This is the last straw because of what happened his calling a snap election enough is enough. We can Alec certain can. Outside the challenge, three thousands of people have been waiting all day for courses decision. And when news of the snap election came through their rutted in celebration. It all began on Friday, when two German publications, the news magazine, Der Spiegel and the dailies Deutsche site. Released secretly filmed footage showing Austrian vice-chancellor Heinz Christian struck hand, one of his deputies talking to a Russian woman. The woman claims to be the niece of a powerful Russian oligarch looking for investment opportunities in Australia for the meeting took place at Avila on the Spanish island of beatha in the summer of two thousand seventeen shortly before the general election that swept and his far-right Freedom Party to power in Australia in the footage. The woman offers to buy fifty percent of the popular Australian, tabloid Cornyn site on and switch. It said, to'real position to support his Freedom Party as a thank you talk. It would make sure that the woman would get lucrative construction contracts from the Australian government. The scandal quickly became known as a beatha on Australian session media. The public's verdict was clear start and his party Moscow stock had his resignation the next day. But for the time being the Freedom Party is still part of the government, it's ministers are under increasing pressure. That went other resignations could well follow, but there is a bigger problem here. He beat the gate has damaged not just the freedom policy. It has damaged all stream politicians such a case, of course, is damaging the trust into the political system and stemming the political system at the whole Stephens angle is an Australian political analyst, and he's been watching the developments closely so we will see how this is going to transform the discussion in Australian, especially about party financing about transparency. At think that in this field it will be necessary. Come up with fundamental changes that rebuilt the trust of the people. Just a week to go before the European elections. This couldn't have come at worse. Time for the Freedom Party. It's safe to say that won't do well in the snap elections either. But the next few months, again, be difficult for all policies Stephens angle, again, all parties, especially opposition parties. Of course, are now a little bit surprised by the velocity of this development and the artists themselves did not calculate that they need additional money for another campaign in this year if we are going to vote at the beginning of September. It means that the campaigns have beheld mainly in the summertime where a lot of people are in holidays, and so on so tight and hard time to compaign actually, but at the end, it will be far more difficult. Even if in the short term quits is able to gain some from the upcoming elections. It will be far more difficult for him to. Maintain the agenda, he maintained in the last one and a half years for now, though, chancellor, coaches priority is damaged confirm his own job is now in doubt, and questions will be asked of his involvement with the Freedom Party and the depth of his knowledge of its shady affairs. The extent of Russia's influence in Australia will also be major point of discussion. But most importantly, Australia time, political system will now be put on the scrutiny will there be an emotional revelations time will tell. For Monaco in Vienna. I'm Alexa coral. Thank you, Alexei. Not more to come from that story. We'll continue following as things transpire in Australia. You're listening to the briefing on, Monaco twenty four. Finally today. Miracles coacher correspondent, and I will say, at Eurovision correspondent, Fernando Pacheco has just returned from Tel Aviv. He's fresh off the plane. In fact, he was reporting on this big song contest, Financiero, still wiping, the gooder of your face. And then I must say, I mean, it was amazing weather in Tel Aviv was kind of twenty five twenty six quite semi, which makes for change, because in recent years, things have start covering. It went really cold and rainy countries like Sweden Ukraine. For much, much luck with a change on, on that horizon, given the one who took away the crown this year. We'll get that person saying, let's start off with some of your highlights though. Maybe just first up. Tell me broadly speaking, what were the main takeaways for you this year? Well, the main takeaway thing is routed, a great job in the arena was quite sleek. Technology cO in the us lot of former Eurovision winners on stage. I think it was quite an ambitious and perhaps one of the best revisions as an event in recent years as well. And of course, we had the bake control rec- as well tonight, the performance of Madonna, which in fact, who have short clip that we're gonna play it for, you know. Containment. I mean, I was watching from home, the comfort of my home. And I've got to say part of the reason I think that Madonna's performance didn't go down. So well is because it really came a little bit too late and very much in the lull of the show. I mean that gap from the final performance right up until we find out who's one. That's a really long time. And they didn't even get to Madonna that quickly. It wasn't as if they just said. All right. Don while you wait. Here's madonna. It was a bit of a way. You're right. Ben and actually was one of the longest revisions from Kim remembers bit more than four hours. It's usually around three hours and forty minutes. So perhaps there was testing a little bit a patient's, but, you know, I spoke to the director, general of the EU when I was there in Tel Aviv, and he said that he wants to take the song contest to the US for neurone two thousand twenty one and I wonder if you have people like Madonna just in Timberlake, two years ago, it's kind of the opening for that, because if he most Americans do know exactly what's revisionists. Okay, time I write an article. Once every two years or something like that. But I think the average American don't know. But, but as I said overall the show was pretty good. I had a few favorites as well. Tell me I got my favorites. But I come on, I, okay, I have to say this is no way was amazing. And when they come the votes on the jury vote, they're quite low, but they're number one on the telephone meeting that was amazing. I mean just listened to that song and tell me if you don't like this Ben, let's hear it. This only lie. It's beautiful. A highlight. Yes, I just kept thinking that bold, man reminded me of the boatman from Akwa yet. Well there he's from the nearby country. The Denmark, so perhaps they're related somehow country. He's bowled. He has a strange sounding singing voice. It's very European and that's another interesting thing about the difference between the jury and the telephoto which I actually quite like this spans because the I count, you know, the jury votes and only at the end the include the, you know, the televising and I'm glad because they're CHU forces, the jury tend to go for acts. They're more kind of I wouldn't say, boring, but, you know, they just have a beautiful voice and the performances, quite is not as kind of a foreign as the public likes, so then in the end, the winner is the one that managed to mix both of those things. In a way, I think it's absolutely essential. We've got to a point in history now where I think we can safely say that the general public cannot be trusted and we need. We need the comment of Eurasian experts to make sure everything turns out the way we would hope it turns out, although it must be said, we're going to the winner now I was deeply hoping for Kate Miller, Heike representing Australia. She was. Performance was, and I have to say, I think people when you're watching from the television, you saw those amazing visuals. And she was right on this on this poll, and of. And terrifying. Bendy sticks was terrified any will look amazing on the arena's, while sort of in terms of the effects. It was one of the best songs that she even did a little bit of your lane. You know that I'm a big fan and I've mentioned his on air before. And then you had the talian guys on my mood, a mood with Saudi what an excellent song, and quite oven guard. You know, when it comes to revision, and there's a funny fact ban to tell the winner has been announced it's been the most streamed song on Spotify from new revision every single day, only after the winner changed people are more interested. So clearly people liked that. So many almost one was a close a second. It was not like Neta, which one you know very ill. I mean just quickly before we listened to the do you think that the success of Mahmoud, and the fact that he has his whole story in him as a person has really transcended Eurovision into much more of a mainstream story, does that suggest that he might have some sort of mainstream musical success ahead of him? I think so from from what I understand his quite a big name, ready. Neatly. And is interesting few look at all. Those charts on I tunes at the moment he's doing very well as well. And so, is cane spirit in the sky, which which I'm very glad as well. All right. We need to have listen to who took away the night Fernanda, who was a it's the madeleine's. This is quite a beautiful ballot. Let's hear it from Dunkin Lawrence, arcade. Winner of Eurovision Fernando, you'll be looking forward to next year's is you. Absolutely. One thing I can say the Dutch fans they're always one of the loudest from what I've been. That's a good thing. They're really supporters even in the streets of Tel Aviv. Laura people the Dutch flags flags, so you'll be attending next year's performance. Then is you with a set of abbots probably. It could be to them. Rotterdam the Hague. We don't know, yet will be certainly looking forward to it for goes to check. Always a pleasure to get your insights from Eurovision. I'm not sure there's any news on whether a stray will be competing next year. But I can tell you right now that if one more personnel, xxx me, why straighter is still in Eurovision. I will be referring, you to the trillion prime minister, which is a fate. I would wish on no one that's all today's edition of the briefing. It was produced by Reese, James and researched by your linga thrown out. Studio manager was Kenya scarlet the briefing is back at the very same time to marina do join Juliette foster for today's edition of the Dory house, as going live at eighteen hundred here in London. Thirteen hundred. If you're listening in New York, I'm Ben Ryan. OB jetting off to the Cannes film, festival for the remainder of this week's do. Stay tuned to monocle twenty four. For more coverage for only world's most prestigious film festival. It all wraps up this coming Sunday, L hope, to be there to watch as the palm door is handed out to one lucky film makeup. But for now that's the briefing. I'm ben. Ryland. Bye-bye.

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