TimeformUS Pacecast - Episode 63 - May 26, 2020


Hi Everyone Welcome to the May Twenty six edition of time formulas pace cast on David Arrigoni. I'll be joined very shortly by my co host. Preg- dull cousy. This week on the PODCAST GONNA be recapping. Some racist from Santa Anita and Churchill downs This week we actually had some top courses in the country in action at both of those venues a couple of grade one races that were run at Santa Anita those being on turf the shoemaker mile and the gamely stakes and Churchill downs. We had some pretty popular horses return and some minor stakes races The Matt Win. What with Max field coming back. He was one of the top two year olds of last year and also a window sale and Dunbar owed returned to win some races for the older horses on the dirt. So we'll recap all of that along with some allowance and made races. That were pretty noteworthy last week. And we'RE GONNA get to all of it. Craig how're you doing? How did this a three day weekend treat? You treated me about the same. I hardly even though what they it is anymore. Giving stated thing so wasn't really much different than than Wednesday other than we had more racing. It was nice to see you think we had eight or nine tracks on the menu on Saturday. So that was a pleasant change. Yeah for sure it's great to have Some of these major tracks running again this week and it felt like we actually had a lot of racist to cover in terms of top horses. That were in action. So glad that we actually have a lot to recap this week is it. Feels like we're started getting back into the swing things with racing around the country and we're going to kick things off at Santa Anita actually just going back to yesterday's card because we're recording this on Tuesday may ransom of those grade. One races on Monday this week. Memorial Day and the big race was the shoemaker mile with a couple Chad Brown horses in the Mix River Riverboat. Who had come off a couple of stakes? Wins out there in California stepping back up to the grade one level but it was The other Chad Brown horse raging bull. Who got the job done here? I think the story of this race though is just the supersonic early pace and just the perfect ride that raging bull got from drawers. Reo Yeah he sure did. The figure didn't come back great for this race for grade. One Raging Bill Bull ran a one twenty two. But I'm not gonNA put a whole out of stock in that because there was a whole whack going on in this race Trouble wise. The pace was super fast. As you mentioned a good race I think it was nice to see raging bull. Get that grade one win. He hadn't had one since back as a three year. Old Last year somehow for horses talented sent me wasn't able to notch a win. But I do think he's going to be one of the stronger horses in the division The runner up next shares. I thought rang great. He he was one of the victim or of wills bad start at the beginning where he basically took out two were two or three horses inside of them with without parole. Was bottled up back in third so as definitive as the race look at and I do think raging bull ran very well. There were some others talk about in here and I do think that given better trips the figure for this race could have been higher than that. Luli one twenty two for a great one yeah. I'm not sure what to make of the the trips that were in behind him. I I mean I feel like raging bull was winning this race regardless I mean the margin at the end was two and a quarter legs. And that's that's significant for a turf race going a mile and a raging bull for closer like him to just completely taken the race over by the time they reached the eighth. Paul I mean that just speaks to the fact that I mean he was really moving down the center of the track as they came into the stretch and he won basically geared down at the end. Not Saying that he would have won by more of run faster. That's not what I'm suggesting. Just the other who had trouble. Did they have two and a half lengths of trouble? I'm not really sure about that. And the horses you mentioned next shares. I mean yes next year has got slammed at the start by war of will but I also think nick shares was going to be where he was in the early going regardless because he is just a deep closing guide horse that sometimes does lose contact with the fields in the early going of his races without parole though. Is the voice really have to discuss? That might have been best in this race. I saw some people making the case for that. I thought that he was a little bit closer to the pace that I would have expected i. He was actually basically just right in line behind. War will moving down the backstretch on the inside about six or seven place early but he was only about three or four lengths from the lead given how fast they're moving up front. I think that was a bit closer than some people would have expected to see him and I read. Rt is he tried to do the right thing by saving ground around both turns and sometimes it works out for you sometimes. It doesn't he just got unlucky in the stretch. He came out to search for room alter course multiple times he just ended up getting through to late and you could see when he finally did find some daylight he. This did have run left Given how impressive raging bull was. I don't know if he would have won But he definitely was the second best horse at the. Very least I would say that. I think one thing I do remember talking about. Last year was raging bull and thinking that a mile would be as best distance. He did get back to that towards the end of the year ran whale after. They've random longer but I would think this year he's probably gonNA stick to that. It really seems to be right in his wheelhouse. Yeah I do think this race moving forward while we're talking about all closers rounded out the TRIFECTA. Here it would be a race right. Want to give a second. Look to some Deborah close to the pace when they come back out of here. I Mean River Boyne actually ran really well considering that he was probably much closer the pace than I think most people would have assumed he was just about a length or too off that pace down the backstretch. The same goes for war of will who I would have liked to see out in the clear in this race but he ended up getting slotted in behind some horses early and again he was close to the pace so I get both of them. Another shot moving forward. Yeah I have no problem with that and and I will mention. The fractions are all coded and read the pace figures early. Were in the high one forty so it was definitely a hot basin. I agree with you about river. Boyne I thought he actually ran ran. Pretty Darn well given outside post and being up close to the base and it is a rates where I think you WanNa look at trips but you also want to look at the pace in. You can probably find some bets coming out of this when the that might be overlooked the other grade. One event on that Memorial Day card was the gamely stakes. It was the finale at Santa Anita yesterday for the Phillies and mirrors going a mile and an eighth on the turf and while this was a grade one race in really had more of a grade to feel to it And maybe even weaker than that. Especially when you consider that the Chad Brown horse that really. Everybody ended up betting in this race at twelve Came over with some credentials from France. She just proved to be a total bust She just was never involved in the race at any point. Didn't have much of a closing kick. So she was a non factor. And you were really just left with those familiar faces that we've been seeing in California and these grade three and grade two races. It was keeper of the stars. Who pulled off that big upset last time and the Buena Vista? She came right back at a mile and an eighth and did it again. Yes she did in. You're totally right this race. Got One fifteen which is more grey to maybe even great three type figure but you know it's a great one On paper so that's what she's going to get credit for. We've talked about the California Turf Division being a little bit below the east coast or sometimes even a lap below and I think that was the case here in each. Wawa is a good point in that not was bet down so heavily. I think people were just looking for anybody. That was a true grade. One Mayor Philly or Mirta to win but she had nothing edges said she back early he kind of made a little bit of a run but never even reached contention and You know I have no problem. I kinda did a double take when I saw what the figure came back but the track was really consistent on the day it fits with the all the other horses that were tucked in behind a yet horses coming out of weaker races to to run welwyn in a grade one so I think that pretty much says it all about the status of this race. I if these sources were to ship out and go somewhere else and in face real one competition. I wouldn't be very optimistic. Yeah Keeper of the Star. She's a cool horse. It's nice that are connections. Have really figured her out recently. Seems like putting her out in the clear not putting her behind. Horses has really been the key to her success. Because she's gotten that same kind of trip and her last two victories and she responded well But I do think that if she steps up against legitimate grade one horse especially if Chad Brown sends his as string out to California. Because I'm not even sure the beautiful lover and a twelve would be considered his beast She could be in trouble because this was not a fast race as you said but a raise the did go pretty fast as we saw earlier in the week on Saturday was the Daytona for the older colts and Geldings sprinting on the Turk going five and a half furlongs. We talked about this on the time. Formulas forecast week that this looked like a pretty competitive field despite only drawing seven runners and it really turned out that way as the favorites. Battled it out but there was also a log shop in the mix really mixed things up coming to the wire here. Wild Man Jack Did. Get up to win but sparky. Ville gave the entire field of scare. He did it seventy two one. And he actually got the highest figure in the race setting part of it being part of setting that really fast pace early The the page figure after the opening quarter mile was a one fifty for the Reysen. He was up there fighting for the lead with Sistrin who was was one of the favorites in here and wild up kind of backing out. I'll be it with did have a little bit of trouble but I don't think there's much doubt sparky Ville was the better horse that day over him and while Man Jack He ran well. I would say. He took advantage of that harder hot early pace but it's not like he was five months behind. I mean he was sitting length or too off at most in which disabled war where the horses down late in he He kinda backed up that for me showed in Dubai and you know. I think he's right up there with the best turf sprinters in the country given these last two efforts. We've seen from him. Yeah that'd be that last performance Dubai. It's hard to know how to assess it because you're not really that familiar with the competition. He was facing. It probably wasn't up to this level of heat. Set a track record for six furlongs in that performance at one by a large margin. So it's possibly he's just turned a corner and he continued that momentum here. This is a really fast race as for the others. That finished behind him. We should mention that. Some horses did have trouble in the stretch of this race. Stubbins had to steady a little bit multiple cores. Sister got steadied out as well though it seemed like dramas fading by that point already. I think there's an argument that maybe stubbins could have won this race if Umberto reportedly had ever been able to get into the clear Towards the top of the stretch she just kind of had to alter course one too many times and They the stewards looked at this after the race. But I kind of agree with them. That the evidence was inconclusive. That you could have it on either of the first two finishers as well. I didn't have any problem with with no D. Q. Able to really tough when watching the replay three or four times. They kept showing it. I had no idea what I do. So I can't blame the stewards for not making Jane Tear. But as opposed to the routers I I think we saw some really good sprinters here and it's a strong division out West. The I duNno stubbins ship more than some of the others. Were the other day mostly out West so he might be a good barometer if he heads back east but just a really strong rates in my opinion and speaking of those southern California turf routers. We saw them in action a little bit later in that Saturday card and the Charles Wittingham stakes Grade to event going a mile quarter on the turf and it was united familiar. Face out in California just seems to be around to the finish and all of these races. He got the job done here. United never the kind of horse. It's GonNa win by a large margin but he just seems to have a nose for the Y. Or being right there at the end of his races he got a little bit lucky here though because he held on in a head Bob. That really went his way. He got a pretty lucky Bob there but I guess he would have won the race anyway. Even if you lost the Bob because the horse that he was in a photo finish with got disqualified and he ran them one. Nineteen time for him. Usb figure the same thing rang last time he had run away one eighteen when he was beaten the time before that. So just a really solid horse. I the one really big figure. Iran came when he was second in the Breeders Cup at those huge odds but again This was a great to. That's probably borderline for this figure rock emperor as you mentioned earlier on the the lake. Chad Brown sent maybe his second-string I I don't think you could put rock emperor any higher than his second string for the the males and he was right there in the nose. Bob Wit with United That's another one. I don't really have any problem with the DIJK you. I do think he'd caused some problems. I could seen this one go in either way so it's not one. I would lose any sleep over one way or the other. I mean. Obviously the abetted that way. Then you did. But it's a solid effort original air date okay. He ran one eighteen. I didn't see a whole lot of trips in here. Maybe desert stone dropped a little bit too far back but the pace wasn't all that hot so it just the no for me. Yeah I mean I think the issue is that It's inconsistency because I mean there was a little bit of bumping coming down the stretch but speaking from the perspective of somebody who watches a ton of replays watches a ton of head on replaced. Just as part of my day to day handicapping you see what in the stretch of this race in a lot of races and the stewards rarely take a look at that stuff. And I don't know if it's because this is a great stakes raised or just because one of them might have saw something this time that they decided to do something about it. But you'd like to see a bit more consistency with these calls. That's that's really all you have to say about it. The other thing. Since we're talking about stewards. We didn't mention that were of will was disqualified out a fifth in the race on Monday. And apparently that's a new thing in southern California. They're gonNA START DIJK you in horses at the start because that was to this weekend in for a long time. We've never seen that out there so at kind of an interesting thing to keep an eye on. Yeah it's surprising to me but people on different different views on this. My perspective is I'd rather see the stewards get involved less. Because I just think it's it doesn't help the handicappers and it's hard for a lot of people. Were getting into the game to follow really. What's going on here because it is confusing a lot of the time and and it's just not consistent will hopefully apply these same standards moving forward but that hasn't been the case up until this point the one of the race we're going to discuss from this last weekend. In California was the Monrovia. This was another five and a half furlong turf sprint for the phillies and mayors and Jolie Olympic who had actually finished second to keep the stars the game winner in that point of this. We just talked about a little bit. She turned back in distance here to the sprint distance. Said she just proved a little better than this field. Mike Smith Time. The ride perfectly Olek Sandra came at her late but she was just a little too far back early. Yeah I thought it was pretty impressive effort for her. She got a one twenty two time for speed figure which is best in this country so far it was one. I'm a little leery oven and I'm GonNa go back and take a look at it again but there was another five and am. Furlong race on the card. I went and timed them from video because of the disparity just to be sure and they both checked out just fine so as of now the figs look pretty legit. I thought all of the top four actually ran pretty good races. They all got one twenty or higher time for. Us speed figures and a strong group of Philly Amir Sprinters Yeah Jolie Olympics are really nice horse. Oleksander was probably a little bit affected by getting steadied out at the start. I mean she's a closer that was gonna be last anyway but you could even tell coming around the far turn Joel or a bit too far back that I think even he would have preferred because she had just too much ground big stretch. I still think Oleksander is one of the most exciting closers that we have in the game right now because when she gets into the clear in this stretch of one of these races she's just a rocket ship Sometimes there's just too much ground to be made up though. Yeah since. I'm curious what you think about. Joey Olympic stretching out again. They tried it last year. Didn't work out as well but I mean let's assume a lot more money going a mile or a mile and a sixteenth in there is going five and five and a half furlongs and it's not like. He was disgraced when she tried a mile. She was narrowly beaten by now grade. One winner so just curious what you think about her prospects. I mean frankly I would give it another shot at it. I mean I was way against her in that point of that just because she figured to be so over bet and she was but it was really just a value thing. She actually ran fine in that race. And let's keep in mind. She was second off off with just one five and a half furlong turf sprint. Under her belt at that point and it was a really easy victory for her that she had one our first start in North America. So maybe she just needed that. I start going to turns and I think she deserves another shot going that distance in the future. Yeah I think we're on the same pager. Let's move to Churchill downs where they ran plenty of stakes races this Saturday. We're going to discuss plenty of allowance races in Samedan events that took place that other days in the week Well let's begin with that Saturday card and I think the main attraction was the matt Wednesday because it's offering now fifty Derby qualifying points to the winner heading towards that September Kentucky. Derby and I would imagine we're going to see the winner of this race in the Kentucky Derby field as long as everybody stays sound over the next few months because Max field was the big favourite. Here he was a horse that had turned a lot of heads is a two year old. Well we hadn't run a particularly fast speed figure last year. I know he was one. That was visually impressive in his races. And I think he did exactly what you would want to see him do his three year. Debut Yeah I agree before I get too much into that race. I do WanNa talk about a little bit in the time for. Us Charts. I it surprised me when I went to look at him this morning and I saw we have a code in late blue as attract fever enclosures. I'm not saying that's true or not because I haven't really looked at closed. I do know most of the worst one from off the base but what surprised me as I have a coded In my the work that I do that if the track changes conditions during the card that I'm not going to give a bias reading and I was really surprised at the track state fast throughout the day because they had a couple of downpours in there. So that's what I'm going to have to back and reassess look at it and just see if I think it's worth keeping it in there because clearly all those races were not run over the same track. I could see at when I did. This did speed figures. There's definitely some different variants being used so it was. I was really surprised that the track condition never changed As for Mac `field in in the Matt Win. I don't think you could ask much more for him from him. He ran a one fifteen speed figure from us which was a nine point improvement over his too euro best. So I think that's exactly what you WANNA see. It shows whatever his ailments were I think he had a minor surgery that he's definitely over them. I doubt that he was fully cranked them. Ready to go for that reason. He will throw a good. He wore down New York traffic. Who We pretty much know what he is. At this point he actually came in as the fastest will worsen. I think he kind of legitimized. His last couple efforts in just a pretty good race. Saad Pneumatic Ryan. Okay I think as I suspected he's he's probably not a true triple crown race Kinda contender. But he's a solid enough three year. Old Yeah this is one of those situations where maybe if this was max fields final. Prep for the Kentucky Derby or whatever as pointing to We could knock the speed figure a little bit because some of the other three roles have vast up until this point But I thought for what it wise. This was what you wanted to see for Mac field because I mean not only. Was it just a starting point but also the pace of this race? It wasn't really fast. It was modern. I mean it wasn't a slow pace but it was moderate and the field was really bunch. Moving down the backstretch and hopefully are kind of had max field in traffic for most of the raise dot that he had significant trouble because he didn't But he only basically got out into clear at the quarter. Paul and Had just a about two furlongs to do any running. At the end of the reason he did what you would want to see him. Do He was the only horse to close in this race. Nobody else did much passing at all so I think he does deserve some extra credit for this victory even though he got the same time. Formula Speed figures traffic. Who was second. I think Max Field Ram a superior race. Yeah and I was also impressed with the way. pokka Lopez definitely kind of steered New York traffic out in the Max field trying to intimidate him. I assume it didn't bother him at all. He just kept going was really professional and went right owned by. Yeah with Paco. Lopez on board the front runner. I think you just have to kind of that's going to happen. And whatever race that you're in a another stakes race? The took place just before the Matt Win. On this Saturday Carta Churchill. Downs was the blame for the older horses. This one was going to be one turn mile and We saw some horses from last year's triple crown series actually around out the exact to hear when Dale and ever fast they were actually the second and third place finisher in last year's preakness behind war of will and they were the top finishers in this blame stakes Owen Dale to me. This is a good sign that he was able to get the victory here. Going a mile because We talked about it on the forecast last week that maybe this was going to be a bit too short for him. Maybe there wasn't enough pays in this race. He overcame all of that and got it done. Yeah he did and he was pretty far back early. I think he was actually vast early. And it's not. Like the peace with supersonic none of our fractions or coated red. I would say it was just the average at best almost even moderate so. I think a really have to be impressed with Owen. Dale we got a one nineteen time form. Us speed figure for the win. Which is what he ran one second last year. I think it was in the cork in his last start behind. Tom's Day. Talk in Ever fast in silver dust actually got a little bit better figures than he did So really for me. It was a fairly strong race. I I do think when. Deo has the most upside given it. He's proven he can run a little better going longer. But a good effort from those top three and even Mr Money improved over his rates. First time out this year looked to be getting back in the form and I'd even expect better from him next time out. Yeah Owen. Dale is a horse that I do think is just really. A to turn type. So it'll be interesting to see him. Stretch out from here. Moving forward and his four-year-old campaign because he probably can go as far as a mile and a quarter. He actually read deceptively well travers last year. So I'll be interested to see what he does. When he gets to go longer distances. I felt like the performances of the other prices in this race or a little disappointing. I mean I guess you could give Mr Money and other excuse but for me. He's had a few too many excuses at this point for his last three efforts where he's been off the board and all of them I thought Mr Money had a pretty good trip here. He was a bit wide on the on the turn of that he had a real shot at it at the top of the stretch and just didn't really quick in the way you would have wanted to see him Do or the way that he seemed to be able to do against Lesser Company last year and the other big disappointment in this race was global campaign. I think it turned out that the inside draw just really did this horse in. Because he wasn't quite quick enough to get forward coming out of the gate and he was just sort of inside getting shuffled back for the entire race. Not that he had you know one sick one single incident of severe trouble but it was just sort of the cumulative everything adding up. We're just never really being able to run through horses It just didn't work out for him so I I think global campaign maybe deserves another shot. Moving forward Mr Money. I kind of have seen enough at this point thing onto the Shawny for the fillies and Mares this one was actually going to turn into mile and a sixteenth a couple days before the blame and It really played out kind of as we figured out that it would Dunbar road was the big favourite in this race and she began her four-year-old campaign in the right kind of style. She got the job done here. The pace was moderate to probably slow. They really just kind of walked through the opening quarter mile and Dunbar road was pretty far off the pace at that point but she made a strong run around the far. Turn to get into contention and she was just a little classroom these horses yes she got a one eighteen time for us for the win. And I thought that the race was actually better than what the figure would indicate. I just said the pace was really slow particularly early. Then it picked up but what caught my eye. Was the eye catching move. She made it look like when Jose Ortiz decided that he had enough she just took him to the lead with you know he did her a little bit. But it's not like she was under a huge. You know all out drive to get there and she just pretty much inhaled the field around the turn. She didn't finish it off. You know it's like gee was just pulling away Secretary at like down the stretch but given the layoff. I don't think that's much of a concern i. I was impressed by that. Big Move in the figure. Silent Knight expect big things from her as she certainly agree one. You might have been. Yeah and you mentioned the track earlier in the day arming earlier. In the podcast about that light blue color coded rating but you see a performance like this and also the fact that vault closed into the slow pace it makes. You wonder maybe did horses coming from off. The pace have a slight advantage. I mean we'll talk about some other races on this card. A little bit later of it featured similar race flows. I kind of was on the fence. I thought it was maybe just circumstances that some horses that were much the best ended up coming from off the pace namely Dunbar road and Max Field but I could see the case that maybe the track was a little bit tilted towards the outside. That's fair the one of the worst. I do WANNA mention because I don't have a whole lot. Data Don borrowed. I thought this was a really solid return for them. Interested to see what she does later in her four-year-old campaign. I'm just kind of frustrated by the Ri- off God. I don't think all ammo ever going to be done borrowed in this race but as we talked about on the forecast last week this was a clear opportunity where there wasn't a whole lot of speed. She booked like the speed. She actually broke alertly this day and for whatever reason. Her connections decided to rate her. That's kind of amazing. I I don't think I would have taken any odds that behind chocolate kisses earlier. I do think that one brand pretty well mentioned in her first dirt start since last summer is she made a big jump up as a four year old so I was actually impressed with chocolate kisses. I thought she ran pretty well but he had the the ride on. All EMMETT is puzzling Who knows if it's a trainer given those instructions or the writer deciding it but she's done all her best running on or near the front and the change in tactics is questionable to say the least? Yeah I don't think he was going to win this race but for those of us that bed a little exactly with Dunbar road. I think we have a right to be frustrated about that. One there were a couple of turf stakes on Saturday for the three year olds one for the males for the females. The one for the colts and geldings was the world champion Jackson the last race on this card and this was one that was projected to feature a fast pace and a couple of did go out on the front end but they sort of snuck away from the field around the far turn and by the time they got to the top of the stretch. One of those speed horses mood like straight had just built up this insurmountable advantage and some of them. His competitors tried to close from the back of the pack but they couldn't make up that deficit the figures kind of tell the story even though they opened up that big gap on the field. It wasn't a particularly fast pace now. It was. We can't really talk about time very much when we compared to tappin and run earlier on the card because there was definitely saw a change in the track due to the rain the took voice in between so couldn't really compare times between the two in these races. Were basically right rated nights relation. But that's it. I don't have much much doubt that the peace figures are fairly accurate. For this reason you can of tell by the result of the horses. Up-close did find the worst. You tried to make run late. Just couldn't get there and if I was going to bet this raise coming back. I mean I might want to look at the two three finishers over the winter and I will mention the winner. Got a very good one fifteen time form. Us speed figure for the wind. But I do think he had the best of it by far on the trips. Yeah I mean the other species mansion he was more of a log shot and he really didn't finish anywhere of note So smooth straight did put him away. It wasn't just like the race was dominated by front runners. I do think smooth lakes rate might have been a horse that at least I feel like I underrated a little bit coming into this race because he did run well within the context of some faster pace than southern California and he had that. Goodwin the Cecil B Demille Mile last year and like you said the one fifteen time formula speed figure that he got for this race. That's legitimate for the three year old. I mean that's basically as fast as we saw a lot of the top three year olds running into the summer last year when we were talking about the twenty nineteen crop so I think this is a good sign for smooth straight and I don't think smooth like straight wants to go much farther than a mile that seems like his maximum distance but up to a mile he seems like a pretty purely pretty talented horse and pixel a like you said and feel past even they just had a bit too much to do and I do think they're both nice words but they're too deep closers. That are often at the mercy of the pace. The philly version of this race was the stakes. Which was the eighth race on this card and sharing last year's Breeder's Cup juvenile fillies turf winner? Came back here and got back to the winner's circle right away and her three-year-old debut Really her and her main rival alms to all the body in this race alms couldn't quite make that step up in class but sharing had no problem with it here. She got basically three wide trip all the way around the track and that really wasn't detrimental to her at all and she just basically time this perfectly to get up to win over the field. Yeah and I would say it wasn't detrimental tour chances of winning. I do think it had an effect on her speed figure. She only got a one. Oh three from us. As I said this was raided differently than the other states rates but there was other turf races on the card before that at least one that I remember so it wasn't a particularly fast race but I was actually pretty impressed with the comeback as you said. She was out three wide around the turn. She was in the clear without cover the whole way and she actually kind of got forced by the writer on alms I forget who it is. I might have been pocket Lopez as well. We talked about earlier. Who Kinda forced her hand and tried to make a move. She somehow wound up inside this sharing from the far outside post but kind of forced her into making a early move ensuring was able to keep that run go and she made a longer than than ideal sustained. Run through the lane so I think that they'd have an effect on the speed figure and I'm not going to knocker too much for just running a one. Oh three yeah. We'll make midstretch of this race was kind of waiting for sharing to draw by length or too because it looked like she had that kind of run in her at the top of the stretch. She got a bit leg at the end. But as you said I think the wide trip might have contributed to that and also it was her first. Start off ally. We could be able to bit forgiving. There's not a whole lot that I have to say about the also rans in this race. Maybe the one horse I would point out that ran well within the context of this race. Is the third place. Finisher pass the plate just because we didn't see a whole lot of horses coming from the back of the pack in here and she was one of the few that made a good run from towards the tail end of the field. But I thought sharing was just the best worsen here moving onto some allowance races from this past week at Churchill downs We'll actually begin just yesterday on that Memorial Day card early in the day going six furlongs the three year old filly frank re Franks rocket beat some horses at the allowance level and did so quite impressively. We already know that. She's a pretty fast and talented three-year-old filly. And she just add that reputation here with a big speed figure she did. She ran one. Nineteen time form. Usb fieger now is a race on paper. There was a lot of speed. We had our shown very clearly lead on the pace projector which is always that common for sprint race. But she was able even not was challenged a little bit. The first quarter was pretty slow. It was one oh nine on our pace figures but from there is when he decided to go Matt Garcia Pump Donor. A little bit and she pulled away through the stretch so she was much the best that she certainly estates. Carol Philly. And we're going to talk about ECO town here in a minute. The three-year-old ran little later on the car. T. Ran much faster than than he did on final time so just a good effort from her and I expect there back in some sprint stakes. Next time out now I do want to ask you about these beat figures a little bit. Because you've got these two races at six furlongs. Both allowance races for the three roles Franks rocket and Eco Town. We're GONNA talk about next. And there was a long weather delay at Churchill. Downs yesterday where they don't. I don't think got the rain that they were anticipating but they did get a little bit of rain. Before Eco towns raised there was a long delay between the two races. The one prior to that and ECO towns race. Did you feel like the track changed at all? Because we talk about ECO town. He ran a slower final time and given the field quality. You might have assumed you'd run faster as as faster faster than frank's rocket How did you feel about the track of Churchill? Yesterday it is actually one. I have down the review. I do have a plan to do that today. And just take a good look at it. It's always easier for me. To look wants to figures go through and I process them and they show up in our charts and it just kind of really jumps out at you and I do have some concerns that may be. The track changed It's a pretty close call and I didn't play it that way. Initially obviously I would. I did these pretty quickly because I wanted to get them done before our show today but I will review it not certainly post on twitter if I do make any changes because as you said it is possible. The track changed particularly the first couple. Look a little bit faster Racist to win three than the ones below with. But it's not a cut and dry situation where it's just obvious and clearly a change like I see on some other days now. The one thing I will say about Eco town who did run a thirteen time. Formula Speed figure six points lower than Frank's rock cat is that he's never the kind of course that is going to win by a large margin. Eco. Down just seems like the kind of horse that really likes to get into a fight. He did that with long weekend in that Bachelor stakes at Oaklawn Park. Last time the two of them posted some real really impressive speed figure six for a long distance and in this race it seemed like Ricardo Santana Road Eco. Town like he was just looking for a challenge. I mean they came to the top of the stretch and that horse digital ranged up outside of him like he was good. Take a really good shot at him in the late stages But it seemed like Ricardo Santana had saved just a little bit tougher echo down to kick away again at the end. Yeah he's certainly a game horse and this is a race which kind of goes the my point when they show it in the charts outside of Eco town who we have regressing off of that runner up last time you look at the figures for all the rest of the horses and they kind of line up perfectly. What what they've been running so it really is a tough call. I I agree with you on ECO. Town I. He's not a horse who who's going to draw away in win by six lengths in a race like that A. It looks like he likes the A- battle to the wire and he was able to get out on top in this one so I imagine he'll be back in stake Saxon pretty soon. Maybe even bounce open and soon nate. They have a good three-year-old spreads. So maybe you'll get to see him. They're also on that Monday. Carta Churchill downs other was a turf race for the older horses. An allowance event won by Ramsey's solution for Wesley Ward This is a pretty intriguing horse. I believe he's a four year old now. One that did not have a whole lot of turf experience coming into this race. I BELIEVE HIS ONE PRIOR TURF. Victory was just in a total bog and he won. That does a pretty uncompetitive race by about six lengths. He had run on synthetic since then and actually run against some pretty good horses. This was his turf starting a long time and it seemed like he definitely took to it. Yeah this was one. I was kind of iffy on whether I wanted to talk about this one on this show but he looks like a pretty intriguing horse. He's won his last two starts on the turf really easily. He had a nice win at turf way over the synthetic in the other when he was beaten by some get hot brown. Who's kind of a specialist on that Turf Way Park? I think they still have polly track there. So you know. This is an intriguing horse is. He's still lately raced a four year old. He got a one seventeen time form. Us speed figure for this win. It wasn't a super fast paced but sadly he stole the race that pays figures are just about the same as the final time figure so he looks like an intriguing horse to me. I was kind of interesting. He was able to clear to the lead from that far outside boasts without setting a fast paced. But once he did the race was pretty much over because he showed some real talent the rest of the way. Yeah I was watching the Fox sports coverage of this card yesterday. Churchill downs and there was some discussion after the race. About how this horse could've made the front end. I know one of the reference the time formulas pays projector and how this was worse. This was all the way back in. I think seventh race on the pace projector and it's just a situation. I think where we're always going to have difficulty rating horses like this number one because he was lightly raised and number two because his one prior turf race where he had been on the lead with just over that boggy course where. I'm sure that the fractions aren't totally reliable and even turf way park. I think you coated. In one of his reason races. There was a timing error so I think it's just a horse that's difficult to make it early pace reading for. Yeah it's matter of fact. All of his last three races feature Blue fractions at at one or more points of call. There was a timing error to back turf way the timer malfunctioned that the three quarter mile mark. Which is part of the the pace projector so you know. It's just something we tell people. The pace projector is more of a guideline. That should be a starting point for you. I don't as we both talked about. We don't always agree with the peace project there. It's an Algorithm. Net is pretty effective. But it's not going to be right in every case and this is a horse when you look through his. Bp's when you see all those blue fractions but also that he's been up close you know that he can probably go quicker if he needs to each never really add or been asked to. Yeah I like to say that the pace projector is a place for your conversation. About pace to begin and especially in turf route. Sometimes you want to look a little bit deeper than that because as we see a lot of these turf rats just because a horse goes to the front end of half mile goes on fifty seconds. That doesn't mean that the front runner can't run faster than fifty seconds to the half mile when he needs to just mean. That's how fast. He's running his prior races. So you might. WanNa do a little bit more handicapping if the pace projector and some of these turf routes Moving back to that Sunday car to Churchill downs. We saw a maiden victory by the Chad Brown runner per capita. This is a horse who actually crossed the wire. First and his previous started Gulfstream and legitimately got queued for that race but came back here and he did it Got Up to the victory. No deke this time and he actually earned a career best speed figure here beating up pretty game established who was second yeah. This was a Pretty strong race. It turned out I came back really fast on the clock. The figures good a one fifteen for the winner per capita fourteen for the runner up in just a second career start so it is one. I'll be watching for sure. We had the always reliable copper king back in third So he is a pretty good guide since he runs similar races almost every time. I pointed out on twitter. He's a horse. Who has run a nothing but maiden races and actually pay us the hundred thousand dollar mark in earnings on Sunday. So that that's quite a feat that you don't often see I mean we see maidens go in stakes races and hit the board and boost up their earnings. But you don't often see it and horses just running in maiden races so I'll be curious to see where per capita shows up next because he looks like a a real runner here and dimension. He was close to the pace. We do have all the fractions coded blue but he was still behind established the worst. The event eventually had the rundown so I would say he was the best horse that just as eve was the winner but he was able to overcome that. Besa against the horse he beaten. This is the looks of a really strong maiden race he. I would agree with that and per capita. He's the four year old and he's obviously had some issues because it took a while to get into the race is the first time a three year old and offer for a long time after a couple of starts last year but it Chad Brown can keep this. One sound agree with that. I think this is a horse. That has some talent. He also has an awesome pedigree. He's by TAP it. That makes him a full brother to Both anchor down in iron fist. Iron Fist was a millionaire anchor. Down was a graded stakes winner. Going mile he's also a half brother to Sweet Lulu who I believe one. The test stakes So his damn has been very productive. And there's definitely potential with his worst better when he moves up against winners as much as I say as much as I pumped up that maiden race I still would never back copper king again. Yeah I think it was a career busby figure for him but he seems to find a way to get beat. Most of the time sticking with the Chad Brown runners. We saw another dirt victory by Chad Brown on Saturday in a maiden race as the three year old filly. Altaf who had made one prior start on the turf switched services to the dirt here and looked like she should have been running on dirt all along because she just inhaled this field coming off the far turn in one off pretty impressively race. I actually missed it live I. I was out in the backyard. Cutting trees down as my wife posted on twitter but I did get back in for the later racist but when I came in I heard everybody talking how Chad Brown had an oak source and I was trying to figure out who it was. Then watch the reason. It was pretty obvious who they were talking about She got a one zero nine time form. Usb figure for the win which she'd still need to improve but that's obviously possible given this just their second start This card I will mention. It was a tough one for speed figures. Not just because of the rain later in the car but when I originally did these races of course I knew about the rain but the first couple races on the day just came up fast. I always try to group together as many races as as I possibly can to get the most accurate numbers but I put them in the charts and I just wasn't happy with him and I went back and rework them in it. It sure looked at me like the track changed after the second race it was much faster early on and because originally had this reset only like a one. Oh three or one four. I think it was all the horses That ran were regressing. Which is pretty rare for maiden so. I'm pretty happy when I went back and Redid. The card with with the work at the figures look much better throughout the card and this is one of them. I think that one. Oh nine is legit. Maybe the track played into it a little bit particularly when you see the runner up a first time starter. Came from way back as well to get second but it was a good effort from Outta and I imagine where she's going to be in stakes races soon as well. Yeah I think you do have to discuss the way. The track was playing on Friday and Saturday. Because we're going to discuss a Friday race right after this and I thought the track was pretty inside speed biased on the Friday card and once the day started on Saturday. It looks like the first three results were right along. That's ran because the first race. I know that a horse that was wide won it but he was a two five shot that had to work pretty hard and a horse that was sixty four to one that road the rail the the entire way almost pulled off a pretty shocking upset there and the next two races. I mean they were both one towards the front end. I should say the next race. The second race was one on the front end by a horse that you wouldn't have expected to make the lead. But he ran away from that field riding the rail the victory the entire way. And as you say the track a little bit slower after that and it seemed like suddenly closer has had maybe even a slight advantage after that and that continued on for the rest of the day so I wonder if the track all was running over with little different than we'll be on the first couple of races on the card but take nothing away from her performance here because she was impressive. She won by a large margin. And it's just going to be interesting to see what she does when she gets a real texted test against winners next time. Yeah totally agree. I think she's an exciting Philly for sure and speaking of that Friday race that I just alluded to There was an allowance race for the three the three year old fillies that was won by the Steve. Asked residents charge casual This was affiliate who broke her maiden in her debut. Oaklawn Park last time. She is a daughter of Steve. You since grade one winner lady tax so the pedigree is obviously there for to be a really nice one. I will say though that her trip just was absolutely perfect in this race because not only was she up close to a pretty slow pace in the early going but she was riding. That rail that I really did think was an advantage on the Friday card Things did not work out nearly as well for her main rival center. I'll who was the other one that took all the money in race. Yeah they were definitely a table with trips in this casual. Certainly got the best of that as you said she was riding Part OF A SLOW PACE. We have the the half mile in the five. Ace Co didn't blue and she wound up winning fairly easily in the end. She got a one. Oh seven time formula. Usb figure which was a off of her race last time first time out when she wanted her debut the one The final time was a one twelve. We knocked back a little bit because of the peace but a good effort I'm not sure how much you know. How good this source really is. I think I'd need to see more from her. I I am curious to think as center do you think we just put a complete line through that racer. The think we learned something about her here. I mean I don't know if we learned anything about her But she's definitely horse that I wanNA give another shot to. I don't know what kind of spots is going to show up next. You could be favored next time depending on the competition that she's facing But she is a kind of horse that there was an eight length gap from casual back to to rile in this central finished fifth. And I don't think that. There is nate length disparity in ability between casual rile. I'm not necessarily knocking casual because she won this race and did it You know she won by a length and a quarter but it was the kind of victory where you thought you know. Maybe if she had another challenge kicked on again Kind of like we saw from her and her debut. She's a horse who really ran to get that victory but center. I mean she was steadied. Coming out of the star some of it was her own doing because she broke slowly but from there she was just add a position for the entire raise Not only that but drivers have to take her wide around the far turn to try to make up some ground. That was not really wanted to be on Friday and really just nothing worked out for. Hopefully it's a good learning experience and moves forward off of this. That's not always a guarantee. But she's definitely a horse with more ability than she showed here. Let's finish things up. On the Thursday Carta Churchill downs We're just GONNA talk about a turf race from this day. Allowance Event won by Mr Zuma's. He's a horse. Who is taking probably a need a drop in class because he had faced some tough graded stakes horses in his three prior runs and was coming back to allowance company here and he got the job done. Though it was raised it was mostly dominated towards the front end. It was. I just want to point this rates out because he did get a nice time form. Us speed figure of one twenty two stakes quality number of Ritzy AP one twenty so it was a stronger than normal allowance race. I thought but as you point out it was a race dominated on the front end. Nobody really made up much grounded all in this field so strong effort I. I'm not sure I'd be ready to bet. Mr Do do iffy right back. In the states competition he was beaten pretty handily a couple times a in just great week grade threes at Gulfstream. But I mean this had to be encouraging Effort if you're the connections certainly a step in the right direction for him. Yeah he's a Nice Horse. He's certainly the barn of Mike Maker who can get them back to that top level But this was a greatest aches speaker. So it'll be interesting to see if he can translate that form into a tougher race the one of the Horse. I'd want to mention if here. I mean obviously I mean front run. The Fed was a disappointment in this race. I didn't think he had a major excuse of with a of their horse that I want to mention is the number four eve are. I'm not going to horses to watch segment this week. And if I did. I couldn't show this race due to the restricted access to those churchill. Downs replays But Eve are is a horse whose trip you might want to go back and watch because he was a little bit ranked. The entire way was just kind of wide and add a position for the entire race. It looked like Julian left. Rue was just kind of giving him a race in this country because this was his first start since coming up from South America. If you watch the South American races this is clearly a horse with a lot of ability. Maybe a mile short for him. Maybe he needs to be more forwardly placed. But he's one I would look for next time out. I do WANNA mention one more thing about Mr Zuma's it is interesting to note that he's a It was his third start to a Mike Maker barn. He is a guy who doesn't necessarily improve forces right away when he gets them. He kinda does it takes a little time with them and that is part of why. I wanted to talk about this Maybe he is a horse. Said he's just figured out in getting good at the right time because as I mentioned that that is a stakes quality speed figure that Iran. Now that that's a good point. Also he's a a newly turn. A relatively newly turned four year old. So these horses can always improve at this time in. Mike Maker is certainly the guy to do it on the turf. That's all the racing for this week. will be back later in this week on. Friday to do some handicapping us. We've been doing for the past few weeks. We've got some big races on the horizon. The return to racing in New York is right around the corner so definitely some exciting things coming up soon. Remember that you can always listen to both of these podcasts on Dear F. dot com spotify tunes youtube and soundcloud wherever ever get your podcasters make sure to subscribe to daily Racing Form Channel? Thanks for listening this Sika. We'll be back with the time formulas forecast on Friday.

Coming up next