Wednesday with Walton November 4, 2020
A wednesday we always talk it over with brian. walden of the car donation dot com so much baseball to get into whether it's on the national perspective the minor league perspective. What's happening with the saint. Louis cardinals in his always. Brian good morning to you. Hopefully things are going well for you and your family the morning news world and yet there's a lot to talk about today. Where do you wanna begin. Last time that we were talking and i was in your camp. I thought the cardinals would pick up the option for one and at least it would give them some time to figure out what they wanted to do. They have not picked up that option. Obviously so long is out there for anybody to take a look at they save eleven and a half million dollars and then there are some comments. Made by john mosaic. Lock that will get into the press conference to address that but just initially. What did you think of now. You don't have colt long in the fold at least right now. Now you never say never could come back. I don't think that's going to be the case. Elsa would've brought him back. But what did you think of them. Not bringing colt long back. What would i miss it and miss read. Dan was the overall market. I mean we knew that revenues were down. We knew that major league teams were going to be careful in the offseason this year. But it's far beyond careful. I mean they were players Even better quality than cold wrong. A brad hand closer in cleveland. Where the best in the game. Let go over ten million dollars so what we're seeing. Is you know major league teams. Basically digging the trenches and long became a group of very good players in the market and what that means for the louis cardinals is. They've taken a risk on their defense up the middle. Here's some baiters to hit enough to play every day. Now wonks gone and there's potential that yet you're molina won't come back so the gamble is that they're the cardinals are taking a straight their team defense and you know taking a step backward potentially for twenty twenty one and i. I think that's definitely risky. But i mean i understand. Were coming from some money but of course the big question is in and talk a little bit about it on the other day you know. How much money do they have to spend to improve a team that we know lack power. Last year tommy edmund would be the guy i would assume right now currently constructed and we are a long ways away from spring training there would be at second base when he was in the minor leagues. Brian and you dive into the minor leagues better than anybody. How did he look at second base. Defensively how do you think he would fit in To playing that role on an everyday level at the at the major league level your tummy edmund was primarily shortstop coming up and he was an everyday shortstop in you know as he got closer to the majors. They played him a little more at second base. Yes to your around him out because of course you know typically when prospects come up they don't get starting job day. One but edmund is a solid defender and interestingly enough the fuelling bible awards which is a defensible word. That came out. I was the was like the second and third ranked defender cross position in their metrics for the major league in the national league this year on the major league. Excuse me in the major leagues this year. So and adnan is a is a perfectly capable second baseman. He's he's but he's not cold long you know he's he's not the real question with edmund for me isn't his defense. I think he'll be fine at second base. He won't be exceptional. The question will be. Which tommy edmund. Are we going to see at the plate. Are we going to see the twenty. Nineteen tommy edmund. Who has above average in had some pop in his bat and was really an exciting player to watch. Or are we going to see the twenty twenty tommy in which was kinda new Okay but he's not anybody that's causing any excitement. And that was coupled with the fact that he was moved to the second spot in the batting order which is a very important place to be a cepa table for the guys in the middle and edmund. Mike most of the rest of the cardinals. Offense didn't perform to his prior standards last year. So we saw last night. Colton wong wins his second. Gold glove and tyler o. Neil wins a gold glove. I had a coach. Tell me that if given a chance to play every day this a couple of years ago. Tyler o neil in the minor. Leagues is a gold glove player caliber player and had done that before. He said he is that good defensively. The metrics against showed that this year. I'm i didn't see that but you know the metrics showed that. What did you think of tyler. O.'neil winning that gold glove according to metrics that. What i it's on. And i'm not a great expert on defensive. Metrics will admit but they showed that he was exceptional at getting jumps at getting reads at positioning in position. Of course is also something. That really probably cardinals. Coaching staff should get more credit for than the player. Because of course worries position is where basically two metrics tell them. They need to be but o.'neil did a great job of getting to the ball. We saw that he very rarely. If ever through to the wrong base is worth rockers flows. Were strong they were consistent. He was just a solvent overall player. Now you know you gotta realize. And i don't want to finish his his his Results by any in any means but it was a sixty game season. So you know of course one hundred sixty two year. Well what would happen in a normal year for the gold gloves. The coaches and managers vote seventy five percent of the the score this year. They didn't vote. it also was completely metrics driven. So i think it'll eight tyler. O.'neil slip in and won the gold glove were in a normal year. The coaches might have gone with someone who had more name recognition. Someone they had seen a lot but you understand why they didn't do. The coach managers voting this year because nobody saw anybody but in their own divisions right than central central east eat. So there's no way anybody could could value the east or the west coaches evaluate. Only defense is your in terms of going back to one. They made the announcement jambos. Airlock did and brian walden is my guest About that option are yet the option not being picked up and then he had some general comments just about the team state of the union of the saint louis cardinals. What were some of the things that you picked picked up from. That i was on that. Call you on that. Call that zoom call. What were some of the things that stood out to you from john mosey lock. He just wasn't really optimistic. And by the way cheek over to the cardinal nation. There's a story about about that and there's also the full video that i believe channel five put up so you can listen to the forty five minutes of jumbo's they like yourself but you normally knows optimistic. He's talking about being opportunistic. He's talking about flexing payroll muscle in there. There wasn't really any of that. I mean he kind of talked about creativity. But i just felt like jumbles locke was sending a message to lower everybody's expectations about what teams able to do for twenty twenty one now. I don't know whether mozambique personally wanted to keep long or not. But my sorta reading was young. He was really not conflicted but he was certainly down on the fact that they had to let him go. But you know he certainly explained why very clearly that the cardinals need to cut payroll and that was one of the few members that they have to pull So you know. It's a difficult situation for the cardinals winter. The positive is that the market is going to be depressed and there was some analysis. I was veal. Bernas that they did looking at the players that that were kept for next year and the ones that were let go to look at the value of a win. We'll want one more would be worth normal year. That's eight to ten million dollars in a free agent market this year. The view is it might be half that. So you know if you could go out and bargain hunt and get a player for say happiness value on your contract for twenty twenty one that would be a really opportunistic play. The question is the cardinals have any payroll to do it. And the you know the first questions that have to be answered is what's going to happen with molina and wainwright because the reading i get is that if they if those to come back and they get a reasonable salary for them. Of course we'll come back and let us it is. There's not going to be much money to do anything else. Yeah and the thing. He also stressed that i took away was patients. The market needs to set up. We're not sure about if and when the vaccine rolls out in time for baseball what does the model look like for major league baseball with all teams in terms of will there be people in the stands. Twenty five percent fifty percent hundred percent and that dictates the revenue model of what you may be able to spend so patients. I think is going to be something that we're all gonna have to have in this offseason as we love to play that hot stove game. You know the thing that strikes me about that. That point that you're on is we don't know much about that at all here early november but chances are pretty darn good. We're not gonna know any more about it in early january or early february when teams report. Yeah we'll know a little more certainly but unless some magical unless there's a huge turnaround in the environment that we're in. There are still going to be questions when it gets to the point in time in which teams have to sign players for next year so i get it. The whole market is gonna stall. There's no doubt about. There's not going to be no. He's going to be the first one to to risk overpaying for players when they don't have to and by the way i should say erupting myself but december second is a key date. Nothing's going to happen in the next month. Until december second. And why i say that is december second is the non tender date for arbitration eligible players. And that's the players between three and six years of experience. San diego for example is going to have a decision on tommy fair. Do they wanna pay him. Seven or eight million dollars next year in a normal year. Sorta like cold long. You say that's a slam dunk. Well maybe not. Maybe they'll set him loose. The point is going to be a lot more guys thrown into the free agent market and so teams are going to want to wait and see who's available before they decide to start to sign guy. So i will be turned over the next month. If there's a lot of signing of anybody in any way but again the viruses right is is sort of in control of what's going to happen and you know at some point in time teams are going to have to take some risk not knowing whether they even gonna play hundred sixty two games. Schedules are out there and all that but they might not be able to do it. Another aspect of this to the designated hitter. And that's for for both the player and potential free agent player and maybe trade. But and the clubs. You know if you're nationally club and you know that you've gotta dhl in play next year that changes the complexion of your lineup and what you may do in the off season. So that's something that needs to be settled. I would think sooner rather than later. Well the problem. Yes you're right dan. That would be great. I mean for everybody. If they knew for sure what the rules were going to be now on the other side of coordinating decide. Last year until june 'til before the season started maintenance. May i dunno right before the season started before they made the decision. And everybody figured it out. Okay and and i have a story. I went through the numbers. The cardinals actually benefited from the designated here. Which i was surprised i figured it. Was you know it was net down for them but they actually business anyway. But here's the problem and you know this already but maybe some of the listeners don't adding the designated hitter bringing it back has to be collectively bargain between owners and players and there are a whole bunch of things that we went through last year that they're going to have to go through again for twenty twenty one. What's this season. It'd be how much our players going to get paid if we can't play hundred sixty two games you know. We're going to have expanded playoffs. But out all those things to be negotiated and making decision designated hitter which might be perceived as a give to the players is not something. We're going to give up without getting something in return. And so there's a whole bunch of negotiations about next season. We know nothing about that. Go against the idea of making a decision quickly. The owners will establish a position quickly. Mo- mentioned general managers meetings. Which are i think this week or next week but even if you have a position that mean the players are gonna go along with it so i take. The doesn't here needs to be decided soon. I'm not sure it's going to be though league free agents. That's something that needs to be talked about two. And that's sometimes where you can get a bargain or two along the way in supplement rosters and forty men and that kind of thing and and you know guys develop what did you. What did you take away with. Minor league free agents right now. Well the cardinals had. I don't know about fifteen guys. They re signed a five of them already but guys who contributed to saint louis last year. Who are now for aids. I'm talking about chris. net. I'm rob kaminsky ricardo sanchez briefly. So some you know some players that were contributors but the you know the way. The system works when they get taken off the forty man roster. They're no longer protected by an organization. And so this whole group of guys are now minor league free agents and they got offensive themselves and you talk about the major league market being stalled. I mean there's more uncertainty about the minor leagues as to whether they're gonna play how many games are gonna play. How many teams are going to be out there You know what the schedule is going to be. There's just so many questions. It's going to be even tougher market. I think for Minorly agents this this coming winter. Yeah we still have no final list of the one hundred twenty minor league teams and that is still kind of dangling out there for major league. Baseball isn't it. it is and there's some good reasons why it's going to story iran. I think it was a baseball america. They speculated that one hundred thirty team owners now believe that they're in and you know it's kind of the game of musical chairs right until the music stops. You don't know who's going to be out without a without a place to put the rear end without the put him in and there's some things going on right now has major league. Baseball takes control the minor leagues where they put out new guidelines on how they want to see the facilities upgraded in. It's not just better lights. It's bigger clubhouses and much much more things that are going to cost the minor league team owners money. They'd come out with new guidelines regarding travel which are going to make the minor leagues better for the coaches and players. More buses sleeper coaches shorter amount of time without having to get to a hotel room for example because some of the places like texas just unbearably long bus rides. So a bunch of things going on that you look at the surface and say he. That's really good. They're gonna make the minor leagues a better place but those team owners are looking at these expenses going. Hey i'm on it's gotta cover. All this experiences right to buses. I pay for to buy sit there till got so part of the shake. Their a hundred and twenty could be and this is just my personal theory. Some of these owners saying. Hey i can't i can't cut it. I can't. I'm not gonna play anymore so you know we don't know for sure win. One hundred twenty. You're going to be announced but when there are there are gonna be some teams very very upset. Brian walden is my guest. The cardinal nation dot com. You can imagine brian. Lots of people curious about your thoughts on on yati and adam wainwright whether that would happen here in saint louis they get The the contract down here or somewhere else and if it happens soon or if they let the market develop is well. What are your thoughts on those two coming back potentially to town or or just trying to get their situation settled fairly quickly. I've got gotta say a little disappointed. Yachties brother benji has gone and sorta down a media tour and he's playing the respect card and that really turned me off was on risen became on other shows and talked about the fact. I k- believe the cardinals didn't get a deal done with yati. Well listen benji if you understand how. The works the cooperative bargaining agreement. The cardinals couldn't gotta deal done sooner with. Yeah because the paint sixteen million a year and if they pay sixty million a year in this climate. They're they're crazy so the reason he ought already reached the market was. That's the way the business of baseball works now. Do i think yeah. He's gonna sign quickly your way nice. I don't see it. The cardinals clear roster space so they could sign them without having to let anybody else go. But you know i went through went through an analysis and and people go the carnation read about this not looking at where yadi might sign or how much you might sorry but i thought okay. If i'm audio molina what factors are going to matter to me. I mean there are people run around and you know every time you know totally recent tired chicago so all my gosh. he's go to chicago. he's going to be co-manager or yachties. Go wherever ueno goes or he wants to go to a warm weather team or none of that matters. I in my opinion what matters to molina should be. Where can i play every day. Because i'm trying to increase my personal stats in games played. Where can i get another world series. Where can i get a contract. That's respectful to me. Which is two years in money and then of course. Another factor is hey. I'd like to remain a career cardinal. But that's not going to be the number one so i kind of look through the analysis to say of those factors. How does it look and you know this. The cardinals open up the purse strings. It's you know it's not a guarantee that yacht. He's gonna stay. I think he's gonna stay. I think they're gonna find a way to do this. You know the situation with the ownership group here and it's not like looking at the pool situation which was a decade long contract personal services deal so on and so forth a two year deal and the legacy part of this is important. I think matter of fact. I know to the dewitt's What do you what do you think about that. And how that factors into what they may. Do i agree. And i think that both sides want to get the deal done. But you know it's funny ever since the mosaic calling in a building with the thirds done some media things as well. I've seen sort of a shift in fan perception. There are more than a few fans now who have sort of said you know who sort of see the cardinals overall planet says. Hey twenty twenty. Two is when we're really going to be able to do some things to improve came because there's some bad contracts you know we've got to kinda keep status quo for year well unless you believe. The cardinals are going to be world series contenders next year. And i don't think we do one of the things. I feel with expanded playoffs was it's sorta shook out the poorer teams one more round the kings. It got you know where in the world series where the best teams in my opinion needs league. And so you know your. Maybe carlos can contend for the playoffs next around anybody sees the cardinals as world series contenders will in an environment. Do you want to spend the money on weight on yadi. That'd be the farewell tour in the market next year. And all or do you want to bite the bullet and say hey you know. It's time to start the transition now. The more we can play younger players in two thousand twenty one the better we can be positioned for twenty twenty. Two so yeah. I think you'll yati will come back. But if he sets his sights too high like marceau's into did last winter and he wants to many years in too much money. You know it. It might not end well in terms of just looking at what's happening with baseball I only see maybe you. You may agree or disagree on this. I only see maybe four teams initially spending a lot of money with mets probably being at the forefront of that with their new ownership really deep pockets. You always think the yankees gonna be in there. You probably include the dodgers maybe some other teams one or two and then outside of that. That's why this is going to take so long for this market to develop. I really believe that absolutely you know. I think the top guys are going to get their money. I mean the george springer is right there. They're going to get their money. We'll mayhew's there the cream of the crop. They're going to get the money. It may take awhile. But they'll get it. Sorta like number the machado in harper market. And how. Everybody was national keith. A couple of years ago that. Oh my gosh you know. There's you know there's collusion in our. They got the contracts. It just took into the new year quite a ways into the new year. And i think they'll have an issue. I think where the guys that are really gonna get hurt. Are the guys kind of in the middle. Right that at the low end who normally might be able to get a multi-year cut your three year deal. They might have to settle for one year for less money than they wanted. But as you said you know it's gonna take a long time for this to shake out. January february pants may open. We've guys you don't have any teams and that's going to cause a lot of consternation Among players especially while they're still trying to negotiate what twenty twenty one is gonna look like in terms of money and structure in. Oh by the way you know just x number of months in the future in december. Twenty twenty one. They're supposed to have the negotiations down for a new cooperative bargaining agreement which would completely set the rules for the game for the next five years in the contentious process as well. So there's going to be a lot of baseball talk over the next twelve months about non-playing aspects of the game matthew litter and nolan gorman show. If this was a normal season brian they played in the minor leagues. And let's just say they had a normal you know trajectory in the minor leagues in solid season. Whatever that may look like in the minor leagues What would they be doing in twenty twenty one coming up and would there be the potential that you would see. Maybe one of these guys make a debut at the end of the season. Well my a year ago at this time and we were talking about knowing garment. I a similar path to dylan. Carlson was very reasonable. And gorman goes he plays in the texas league. Maybe some scuffles a little bit. In the beginning he finds his way and then late in the season he gets to memphis. Maybe place near his own fall league bobby players foley and gets himself position. Go to two thousand twenty one spring cave creek camp with an opportunity to compete for a spot with cardinals now. We didn't have that opportunity last year. Obviously knowing gorman didn't get to play you got to play an alternate camp and that's certainly better than nothing. But it's not the same so the question is going to be and as we look at the roster right now as of today matt carpenter's more than likely you're an everyday third baseman and there's reasons why they wanna make sure that you know macarthur doesn't get his six hundred plate appearances so that his expensive contract vests for twenty twenty one. It's expensive option. So you know what could you do. Could you put nolan government on the fast track and get him ready. Potentially to join saint louis in the second half. Yeah maybe he stubs his. Maybe he scuffles like dylan. Carlson did when he first came up but twenty one is going to be twenty twenty one anyway so i think there's a way. The cardinals could my long winded answer. The short version of my long winded answer is i think the cardinals could do some things to accelerate gorman to potentially get him in the saint louis to saint louis in the second half and set the table for two thousand twenty two. Brian had so much great information today. I always tell everybody. Go to the cardinal nation dot com. So what are you working on right now. Well we started the thing we didn't talk about. We started our annual top twenty fifty countdown of the best prospects in the major leagues. And i have joining me a really sharp scouting mind matt thompson from prospects live. Who's doing scouting reports in. I'm writing stories around him and we'll have one. New prospect unveil a day for the remainder of the year. So far we started out with brendan donovan escobar. And today's stories about outfield outfielder. Connor cable so Prospect news every day throughout the winter at the cardinal nation. A man great stuff. Thanks as always. We'll catch up next wednesday. Appreciate it take care then.