Trumps lost summer.

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How does that look. They're hungry and they're going to help whether you like it or not. He's are still trying to recruit priyanka anyway. That's one hard-working algorithm algorithm celebrate. The algorithms on labor day with all that work ziprecruiter recruiter does for you. It's no wonder four out of five employers who post a job and ziprecruiter get a quality candidate within the first day and now you can try it at ziprecruiter dot com slash crooked for free if you go to ziprecruiter dot dot com slash crooked today you can try ziprecruiter for free and we get credit for sending you priyanka. Hell yeah once again ago with the code great don't you. I mean you so you just told me do. That's the whole point of the issue. Look we'll support you in whether you work here. I'll swear how about that. He's giving me a death glare right now once again. That's ziprecruiter dot com. Slash crooked not yet a mistake inviting priyanka coming from the ads. I don't think it's doing great. I didn't great ziprecruiter dot com. Slash crooked the welcome to pause of america. I'm jon favreau. I'm john lovett tommy detour back. Hello good job love it. Governor edson pods elissa was fantastic fantastic job melissa over the pot. I haven't told you in person yet. Yes a lot of chemistry with you and dan was electric electric. He could get you could boil water on. It and i can't pretend i listened. Welcome back. Is we missed you too pods and a de blasio. Oh yeah i was bill. You know he's very tall. Now we had a great conversation. It'll be out on wins out on wednesday right <hes> later in this pod my interview with the host of the political podcast hacks on tap our friend david axelrod and republican strategist. Mike murphy lubbock on top on top. What did you say but first we're going to talk about all the latest news including donald trump's law summer and a deep deep dive into what the electoral map will look like in twenty twenty few quick housekeeping notes. We already did the de blasio one. <hes> remember that's wednesday that will come out. <hes> also pods have america and love it or leave it or on tour this month again. Some <hes> tickets are still available for shows in new york city san jose in portland. Let's check out crooked dot com events for details in tickets. How's the how's that love or leave. At radio. City show also almost sold out and this week we are going to be announcing the guests and guess what we finally got some yeses right exciting. You have some very big get those tickets. <hes> finally finally our good friend. Audie barkin is out with an excellent new video series called uncovered where he interviews the democratic presidential candidates about healthcare no one better to talk to them about healthcare today he's released interviews with bernie sanders and cory booker which you can find it crooked dot com slash be a hero all one word be a hero and be sure to follow eddie on twitter for more episodes as they're released in the coming weeks. He'll be on this pod talking about the series and his new book <hes> on thursday so you don't wanna animus that check it out <hes> all right. Let's get to the news over labor day weekend. President trump cancelled a trip to europe with other world leaders to commemorate memory world war two so he could stay home and monitor hurricane dorian a category five storm. That's already caused catastrophic damage to the bahamas and it's still threatening the east coast of the united states trump's hurricane monitoring included two rounds of golf and more than one hundred and twenty tweets where he attacked the media jim komi debra messing and others the morning for her. You just you just minding your own business. As a whole new cycle debra messing missed that one it did he say she congratulated me when the print scott picked up. I don't even remember john pair. Saw it on twitter over over over vacation. I saw two things on twitter that i was glad glad i wasn't a part of something about bedbugs and brad stevens debra messing popped up and then i threw my phone in the ocean was like great. I will say one of my one regret. It's the small regret in my life but i was at the up fronts promoting a little show called sixteen hundred penn and trump was there promoting the apprentice and he was like he was on the other side the room and i really did at the moment i'm gonna walk up that motherfucker and basically you know launching because of the birther stuff and you know. I just didn't cool story about how you're almost a hero. I wasn't wasn't even close listen. I'll have i'll have conversations at a cocktail party. I'll do it just didn't do it that day. So he golfing. He said all these dreams out. Some of trump's angriest tweets were in response to a washington post story about how the president's own advisers allies characterize these last few months is a last summer that was a quote filled with what they described as quote squandered opportunities self inflicted controversies self sabotage and a president. They didn't who was crashed through the remaining. Guardrails doesn't sound like the trump we know does it guys and now i'm trying to think of something like rot boy summer. I'm something like that dumb trump's summer workshop if you can get it through and sometime during the podcast. Isn't it cuffing time now. Isn't that the new thing everyone's wanting to know what that means. Google it okay so i want to spend some time on the law summer story but i i know that we never liked the media's obsession with optics when and obama was president but how much should it matter that trump was playing golf in rage tweeting in the midst of a hurricane threat and we haven't talked about yet another mass shooting shooting in odessa texas that left seven people dead. I mean the old rules of politics said it mattered a lot. You know i mean listen. Can you monitor <hes> the track of a hurricane from a golf cart. Yes absolutely but it's also true that when the president in the united states gets all the relevant people in in a room in his barking orders at them is demanding to know like what what's been done to make sure that the people of florida taking care of things get done faster and he's obviously obviously not doing that. He also cancelled a trip to commemorate world war two and then congratulated the people of poland for being invaded. You guys see so it's like the guys just banging around through the world screwing things up left and right and then fucking around on the golf course but it does speak to the fact that he just doesn't care about the job your end there was him saying that <hes> he'd never heard of a category five hurricane or time saying like oh. We've never seen that one before which is crazy since there's been multiple category five hurricane since he's been president <hes> and he also throat false information about the storm when he said that alabama was in the path even though alabama was about two hundred fifty miles in the national weather service corrected him. These actually was a lookout lookout missouri. The storm is coming for you. Don't vaccinate your children. I think that the tweets are probably as better worse than the actual golfing. You know it's it's as usual trump when he actually sometimes when he doing nothing is is better than doing something because when he does something it's always damage right. I mean i'm all i'm i'm slightly torn about my own analysis cisco's he could be in a meeting <hes> demanding that we knew the hurricane i know another stupid controversy that happened when we were gone <hes> or he could be tweeting classified satellite images of iran's missile program. I don't know it's yes. It made me thinking you know. Acts always talks about this. Ah talks about this during our interview is it's like the exhaustion theory of trump you. You know that that at some point a lot of voters are just gonna be like however they have. They feel about issues and ideology. There's going to be like can we just wake wake up to a president when there's a storm coming in there's a mass shooting who is at least quiet about it tries to bring the country together tries to talk like a normal person doesn't just just create fifteen other fucking problems. You know just because he's like angry. Tweet it yeah. It's pretty amazing. How not boring he is and how much of this happening all the time. There's a there's a story and we'll talk about it but that that talked about how bad trump summer has been <hes> but one thing thing that was so surprised just surprising to me as it said you know. It's been a long time since trump's july fourth military parade and i just sort of sat back years ago. It was july that was eight weeks ago. That feels like a lifetime ago. There have been so many many scandals since that mini-scandal yeah yeah i mean the post story captures the fact that when you're elected president you have four years to accomplish things and put points on the board really you have about half amount of time but you know technically for years ears and not only is he not doing smart strategic things in this summer the august recess period or any other time. He's actively upsetting setting people who might otherwise support. I mean i was trying to think of things he could do. That would make sense. He could go do a whole bunch of events in you know like right-leaning states about all the conservative judges cut through seems like he would enjoy that it's something that is his base would get behind or go to some of these swing districts where democrats it's just got elected and put pressure on them to vote your way unlike immigration. There's so many obvious things he could do and i'm not even trying to like you know do the thing where you say president trump. If he act like a normal president these are like basic things that he might even enjoy in his adult brain because he likes getting adulation so let let's get into this piece. I i agree. I thought it it was really smart and well reported because you know knows how the summer and fall before an election year is a critical time for president to notch some legislative and political victories and also build a case for his reelection campaign. Trump has used the time to go on racist tirades against various members of congress and the city of baltimore <hes> botched the response bonds to white nationalist terrorism that was inspired in part by his racist talk of an invasion <hes> flipflop on gun safety and continue losing a trade trade war that is now threatening our entire economy so the question is how much does all of this matter the posts that according to an average of seven polls that they did trump's approval rating slipped from from forty three percent in june to forty one percent in august but as you just pointed out tommy. It's not just about the things he's done wrong or badly but it's sort of about missed opportunity. It's an opportunity question. I mean i think that people don't like the erratic tweeting and they don't like the unpresidential behavior and that's just something that we've seen show up in polls for a long time even while his approval rating has has helped pretty steady the thing that would really worry me if i were in the white house and trump's reelection campaign is the trade war because you're seeing real electronic indicators that manufacturing might be down that the trade war is impacting like germany for example and other countries that there might be some global repercussions to what's happening so if if i'm trump and i think a percentage point could get shaved off of g._d._p. Because of this trade war that i've launched for no reason with no endgame that's like an existential threat threat to his reelection yeah and and look you know this you can overstate the importance of this summer before an election year because you know we all remember member in in two thousand eleven the summer before obama's reelect and twenty twelve <hes>. It was probably obama's worst summer of his presidency. It was the debt ceiling crisis. <hes> the united the u._s. is credit was downgraded partly because of the debt crisis his fight with the republicans his approval rating was at its lowest <hes> of course he went on to go win reelection but one one of the reasons obama went on to win is because he began to lay the case for his reelection and he basically you basically two things one we we introduced a bill in the fall and we knew that that jobs bill probably wouldn't pass congress because the republicans were obstructing everything but it looked like back obama was fighting like hell to fix the economy and to help people and we had that refrained the job speech pass this bill pass this bill do something for people you know and then we decided to lay out the case for his reelection early and said that the defining issue of the election was going to be economic inequality in an economy that still wasn't working for people people even before we knew that mitt romney would be opponent but we suspected maybe he would be an obama sort of set the tone for what that campaign would be like by saying. This is going to be my message. This is the contrast trashed. I'm gonna drive with the nominee and you do think that some barely competent set of advisors in the trump white house and barely barely competent president would at least be thinking okay. Let's use the summer and this fall <hes> while all the democrats are fighting each other in a primary to set up what the message is going to be for the trump campaign going into twenty twenty and they just don't seem like they're able to do this well even if they wanted to. They don't have the ability to. I do it with trump. I think there's two things happening one. You know there's a flip side of the coin into what happened. In two thousand sixteen in that donald trump takes all the oxygen out of the room so hillary larry clinton gives a long speech about the economy but they take the fight she had with trump over. Whatever the crisis of the week is you know. Trump does go on these rallies and he gives a a very lengthy speech and he does mention judges. He does issue. I think what is the kind of thirty thousand foot message for his campaign which is love me or hate me. You have to vote for me because of the economy because of all these things as i do 'cause he's other side is crazy. The other side is the squad like there is a kind of message. He's trying to put out there but he stands at that podium and speaks for two hours and five four six of the things he says whether semi prepared off the cuff are so controversial. They become the story for for a couple of days. That's the first message never breaks message never breaks through through and then the second part is court. His message is the fact that you know. Even if you can't stand me look good the economy's doing but in part because of the trade war in part because of larger <hes> dynamics six in the economy he may not have that <hes> he may not be able to make that argument successfully so i think those are the two political problems at anyone trying trying to get trump to campaign is going to face even if they did have some master-plan tummy you mentioned a few <hes> things he could do or could have done to make make the summer better what are some other sort of steps that trump could've taken on some of these issues <hes> that would have made us even more nervous than we are heading into twenty twenty twenty or or what might he still. I mean we could go through. Some of the issues like just on guns for example. Yes of guns is a i think a signal example of what has been kind of repeated trump pattern from the beginning. I think that there was a fear. A lot of us had in the early days of the administration. Which is what happens if he really does deliver are on this idea of an unorthodox populist republican president right what if he comes in and doesn't infrastructure bill what if he comes in and does make a grand bargain on immigration <hes> and what's been fascinating is i think he changed the republican orthodoxy on immigration. He has bucked the republican orthodoxy on trade but otherwise he's been pretty lockstep so what happens is. There's a terrible shooting. Trump starts talking about background. Checks start sounding like he's going to pursue some kind of moderate great deal with democrats that he's going to buck the n._r._a. <hes> but of course that doesn't last and he ends up walking it back which he's done on a host of issues i mean fundamentally trump has never urban willing to buck the conservative base of the party <hes> to get a win and i think we are ca politically. I think that that has been valuable. It's sad for the country on issues like guns but i think politically it has put him in a box and i think the two issues you were you just said he has booked republican party pretty orthodoxy. He's bucked the moderate part of the orthodoxy on both immigration and and trade. He hasn't bugged it in a way that would lead him towards getting something done with democrats immigration like he's gone further to the right and a lot of the republicans were on immigration during the obama era or at least maybe half the party at that point <hes> and on trade. I mean you could see right now. He's trying to negotiate with pelosi in the democrats the nafta to deal right like you could see him getting some trade deal and that would to help him out but i don't know that that's going to happen right. I mean trade isn't she. Wanted i mean he he ran around saying that nafta was the worst deal ever negotiated and that he alone could fix it in they. They renegotiated some like really minor changes to the bill that might help like dairy farmers or you know change the way auto manufacturing standards are in mexico but then he now he doesn't seem to give a shit about the thing he's not pushing for it to get passed in congress. He's not pressuring democrats to fix it and the china trade war is the same thing i mean the things that i assume we're fighting for <hes> when it comes to our trade relations with china are like protecting intellectual property for corporations that it doesn't help some guy in wisconsin that helps like apple it helps major corporations and shareholders and other rich people so the things he's doing are misaligned this aligned with the priorities of working people who might have actually been hurt by the policies of the past when it comes to trade but he's not doing shit for it feels like we've zoomed past that exit sit on the highway of the like dealer haggling over intellectual property issues and trade words i mean he could. I suppose he could still backed down from this trade war with with china but i don't even know if he has the capacity to do that in his own anymore because the chinese are probably thinking well we're we're winning this thing and we're winning the politics in the united states so why would the chinese back back down at this point no. I don't think i mean i think that they are i think they've walked away from some of these negotiations are actively like giving him the finger and making a clear that they're not going to they're not going to do in mexico did which is be seen as plan when it comes to the other thing that i <hes> nat iglesias and ezra klein pointed out that a lot of things trump is fighting for when it comes to rule changes with china would actually are likely to lead to more jobs being outsourced in sent abroad not fewer because they're just helping corporation so in a sense what he's fighting forward likely harm workers yeah. That's part of it yeah that as long as the trade war is ongoing the trade war is the source of all all of these ills. It's the source of job losses. It's the source of economic dislocation. It's the source of your misery it as a scapegoat from two point two along with immigrants <hes> and if he does back down or achieve any kind of a deal all of a sudden that's the victory and who's the victory for all of a sudden. The thing you claimed was a solution turned turned out to not have been one so he he really is stuck in that as long as it's ongoing he's in his comfort zone which is attacking china claiming. He's fighting but to tom's point to others points. It's it's it's not possible for him to win because he's promised a bunch of different things that are actually in contradiction like keeping jobs in the united states and then achieving victory on i._p. Right these are things that are don't help everybody. I he's also ultimately. I think his whole goal is just to look tough and look like he's attacking somebody but when the when looking tough i leads to the economy faltering and people actually getting hurt. I don't think that's going to work and then were to come around on the back and say we'll actually jay powell the chairman of the fed's. It's fault here like no one knows what the hell he's talking about yeah so we've talked about this before but it almost seems like trump and his campaign sort of given up on trying to improve the president's political political standing and they're just hoping to win by disqualifying his opponent and maggie haberman reported this weekend that trump advisor recently told her that trump wants voters to feel negatively not not just about his opponents but about long standing institutions like the media and you know most of his rage tweets over the past couple of days have been directed towards the media media <hes>. What do you think about that strategy. Yeah i mean i can't i can't win but you can lose basically is what what he's doing it right and and you know i think if you're inside a trump campaign and you're trying to figure out how to be useful. It's not gonna be making trump different different. It's not going to be about trump making trump more popular. It's going to be about tearing down your opponents. Let me about dragging everybody down to his level because that's that's what he didn't twenty sixteen is the only path is the only way because the the other option is for trump to become a different person and that's been promised for a long time yeah that tweet about attacking institutions <hes> rang very true to me but it it also didn't seem particularly new you know i mean they're literally funding. Organizations apparently the trump people to dig up things journalists said and feed them to fucking talking breitbart so they can you know try to take the washington post down a peg and you know they know this is an asymmetric fight because then you have a bunch of <hes> journalists on twitter complaining complaining that they didn't let breitbart into one event as if it's like a you know is if there are actual news gathering organization and not just an arm of the republican party like the trump trump people are are telling us mystique dan work there it doesn't it doesn't matter <hes> but the broader fight against institutions is basically been republicans have done for decades they they want to undercut our faith in government they wanna make it harder participate in democracy and in so doing they can win with a smaller and smaller group of people actually voting for them. Yeah i do think that within this strategy of trying to disqualify his opponents and the media and saying don't believe anything bad that you hear about me is basically really has strategy. There's a clue for how democrats need to take him on which is like this is not about whether what trump is saying is true true or not whether the media's lying about it or not just forget about what you believe your own eyes right like what is your life like right in this trade war and you we saw this when we were testing <hes> messages in wisconsin and are changeable like talking about trump starting a trade war with china losing it and then trying to bail l. out big agribusinesses including some in foreign countries because he's fucked up this trade war so badly and hurting dairy farmers in wisconsin was one of the most powerful messages because has whatever trump says whatever he's lying about whatever he's yelling about whatever other people are saying about trump. He can't avoid what people are feeling in their own lives and what people have seen in their our own lives and so people know that he hasn't gotten anything done on guns even though you know ninety percent of the country wants background checks people are going to know if the economy starts art turning south because they're going to feel it right people are going to know when they read stories about <hes> some of the more extreme things. He's done on immigration that those things are happening. I like it at some point. He can keep telling us that everything the media is saying about him as a lie but he can't fully avoid the effects acts of his policies on actual yeah and you can tell you can tell he knows that and he's a little bit worried about is he will for example tweet tweet a lie about china's negotiations to briefly juice the stock market and try to fix the general impression about the state of the economy right so like their little windows into his like year yeah but i think it's incumbent upon democrats to continue to draw the lines between what trump is saying and and doing <hes> with the actual effects on people's lives love it. We were talking about this before the pod but you know that whole situation last week about <hes> trump promising pardons to aids right who get whatever who do whatever it takes to get the border wall built. I mean my first reaction was yes. This is another impeachable offense. Yes is the pardons are outrageous but i think probably most politically effective and talking about this is trump wants to go steal your land like like if you illegally lisa hillier land and pardon anyone who does the cry but we we sort of get into these like it's impeachable and and it's bad conduct the parts of this kind of stuff which is all important i agree but we've got to start talking about the real effects on people's lives like you live by the border and you're just going about your business. The federal government under donald trump might just wanna come and steal your land and with no due process nothing whatsoever like those are the connections that i think that democrats have to keep john if we if we hope to be successful pods of america is brought to you by indochino every man looks better and feels more confident when he puts on a suit indochino casino is the world's most exciting made to measurements where company they make suits and shirts to your exact measurements for an unparalleled fit and comfort looking to get married. They have maybe okay well. 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In all shipping is free plus pods of american listeners get fifty percent off their first order at frame bridge dot com when they use the code crooked since so many of you have listened to our advice and tried frame bridge. They sent us over some info about what our listeners have been framing. What have they been framing. You have friend bottlecaps weird. I think it's nice sentimental bottle experience that some somebody had all right matchbooks house keys. What does that represent. You know that's a story. That's kinda nice. Marathon bibs somebody. Somebody got those twenty six. You know oh you ran a marathon framed. <hes> no just a picture of my my pants is at the time cereal spoon greeting cards and even an autographed penny hardaway jersey. I don't know who that is. We are the wrong people. Oh i referenced ira tile who's penny hardaway. Oh no one knows penny hardaway. I know that name. 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Just four states are likely to determine the outcome in twenty twenty each flip to the republicans republicans in two thousand sixteen but president trump on each only a percentage point or less the four pennsylvania michigan wisconsin and florida many analysts point to wisconsin is the single state upon which the election could turn so the piece quotes former obama campaign manager jim messina who we all worked with saying quote because the partisanship of the country and the president were now looking at the smallest map in modern political history <hes> i what is actually just so people know when people are talking about the map which states campaigns are gonna plan. What does that mean to sort of play leeann estate just so people people know like actually go. There spend time spend money. Put up t._v. Ads have a full field staff in the state like yes. Yes significant expenditure resources basically yeah. I think what people might not realize you know. Campaign has finite resources. You can't just look at a map and say yeah all these states. Look good so i want to compete in all these states. You have to decide where we're gonna. Put organization where we're going to put our candidate and then how much money we're gonna spend on television ads and you know in certain states and certain media markets very expensive to run television ads and other states. It's relatively inexpensive so it's not like you get to choose everything you do have to make decisions nations on a campaign about which states you wanna bet on to win <hes> so do you. What do you think do you agree with with. Jim's assessment that we are. We are down to these four states. I actually was thinking about an actually just philosophically. Don't totally understand what it means. In this sense it is true that there will be a maximal campaigns <music> in michigan wisconsin pennsylvania probably also arizona right there will be huge amounts of resources devoted to those the candidates will go there and and then the question is what what <hes> what will happen in other states and that will play out in part because the campaigns will do a dance with each other about where they put money where they match each other other so you know if if it is quite possible that it will boil down to a very small number of states but it is also quite possible depending on what each campaign decides to do that we will end up with tens. Hundreds of millions of dollars spent across twelve thirteen fourteen seats. I think we just don't know the the field of competition will be based on kind of a game theory a version of game theory that plays out over the course of the next year head fakes is trips things like that and over time we will come to see based on polls where candidates will go where they won't wear their money will go where it won't go right. I mean i think it's certainly safe to say they won't start that narrow. Which is why it was surprising to me to see people predicting with such confidence that it will be this tiny nap was also surprised that the dan <hes> who's one of the smartest reports out they didn't have arizona higher up discussion of what the democratic strategy will be like. I'm also it's it's a tough that pill to swallow that florida is potentially the centerpiece of this whole thing is florida's where you can see trump has actually had a pretty clear concerted in probably smart strategy to hip pilak democratic voters right. I mean they're trying to scare the shit out of older jewish voters. They're trying to be tough on madero <hes> to appeal to the venezuelan population. They're even considering giving venezuelan voters. A temporary protected status. They don't get deported so they're. They're undoing everything. Obama did on cuba to reach older hardline cuban population so i can see what they're doing in florida. If you were to tell me what he's done to improve his chances of winning michigan again i couldn't tell you really anything and one other point about this too. It was just that states move together florida to tommy's point if if the results are coming in and it looks like the democrat is winning florida. I think that augurs really well for a bunch of other states. Think wow we're performing better than we expected are performing well if it starts to look like we're not winning florida. That doesn't necessarily mean the election is over so i think that it is it is true that because of geographic polarization over the last several years there are far fewer states that are decided by just a couple of points than there used to be there used to be a lot more states that were like five points or less or ten points or less and now there's fewer of those states so that i understand that said you know we all remember that at the beginning of the general election in two thousand eight david plov sat down obama's campaign manager and said we are not going to be up on election night waiting for one or two states to come in. We're gonna have multiple paths to seventy and try to add up as many states as plain plane as many states as possible to get to seventy and i think that still wise advice right now and i think partly because there's many different democ you know we've been having this debate in the primary <hes> you know which which demographic groups to democrats need to win. They need to win back. The non college educated white voters voters in the midwest and the obama trump voters they need to increase african american turnout in some of these mid western states or should they look to the southwest and the sun belt and you know rely on moore college educated white voters and former republicans and independents and more latinos so we've been having this debate about you know which groups democrats are to go after and i think the only way to solve that debate is to try to play in as many states as you can that are still within you know the realistic scenarios scenarios here so i do think arizona which hillary only lost by three and a half points in two thousand sixteen and <hes> cures and cinema just flip flip in two thousand eighteen has to be in that map florida like you said which has been his only been within one point over the last. Maybe three or four elections obviously still on that map as well but look we were disappointed in florida in two thousand eighteen. Gilman nelson both lost so. I don't think we could see you know. I think there's a good argument to be made. Dave wasserman made this argument demint on twitter the other day that democrats win arizona before they win florida. I think north carolina is another one in there to obama one north carolina in two thousand and eight. We know there's more moore college educated white voters and african american voters especially around the research triangle that state had been trending <hes> blue for awhile democrat compete in that state as well you know right and then all of this all this also boils down to resources and part of what will determine how big the map is for the democrat and where the democrat is competing is how much money they have and how much resources they can devote. Oh two states outside of the they'll be you know the core few states where everybody will be playing and playing really hard but then it'll be you know. Can we devote money to north carolina. Should we vote money to georgia. What other states people decide to route. You in that will be based on how people are donating outside. Groups are doing how much money the the the <hes> billionaires like the coakes hoaxer draw dropping into states across the country. There's a lot of things that will determine where democrats are competing in a obviously the candidate right. I mean like castro or better rock mark. They might have a better chance of competing in texas than some of the other candidates but you know so that will go into consideration before you drop twenty million to be up on every media market in texas you you know the article was interesting. It's an important way to think about the challenge. We have ahead of us. I do think <hes> it's just too early to know the strategy. I do think i mean my ranking of states. In order of states that we could probably flip back would be michigan pennsylvania wisconsin arizona florida north carolina carolina. I think the more interesting decisions for democrats are going to be do you still play seriously in ohio and iowa which have swung pretty hard against yeah and and very big questions. Do you compete in texas and georgia now. If texas in georgia were smaller states with the populations they have you'd say yeah of course you do but the atlanta media market is very expensive and texas the most expensive of all right so those are really bets if you're gonna compete seriously there and then the other interesting thing about that piece is that you know democrats will have to play defense or the trump. Campaign is going to try to make them play defense in four states. <hes> the democrats won in two thousand sixteen new hampshire minnesota oda nevada in new mexico. I think new mexico is a little ridiculous because hillary clinton wanted by eight points but <hes> new hampshire minnesota and nevada were all decided by by a closer margin so you could see you could see democrats playing there as well. I hope they spent. I hope that trump's people spend mightily in all those other states because they have a big financial initial advantage and it makes me work. There is also by the way in in in dan pfeiffer brought this up the other day. There is such a nightmare scenario where we win back like michigan and pennsylvania. We don't win wisconsin arizona or anything else. <hes> trump wins that one district in maine again. Get the electoral vote. We win that one district in nebraska skinnier omaha to get that electoral vote and it's to sixty nine to sixty nine by the way there's other scenario. There's other scenarios to right now. <hes> the senate hinges on on a on a runoff out of georgia right 'cause isaac sends yeah so there's all there's all kinds of worse areas out there for you to ponder as you're falling asleep but but i think that's i think it goes back to the answer. Is you know democrats and the candidate and the party need as many resources as possible to play in as many states as possible and have organizations on the ground in as many of these days as possible so we are not dependent on one or two states but at least at the outset were playing on a very big map and a big field so okay when we come back my interview with david axelrod and mike murphy pods america is brought to you by squarespace priyanka. Yeah a dream is just a great idea. That doesn't have a website yet. Shit stales like a you're telling me what to do. It does come across a bit like a threat yeah. Make it a reality with continuing to command and it's a command. I suppose it's not really threats command. Make your dream reality with a website. They have beautiful website templates created by world class designers powerball ecommerce functionality. They let you sell anything online and the ability to customize look and feel settings products and more with just a few clicks. Everything is optimized for mobile right out of the box. Squarespace has built in search engine optimization free insecure hosting and there is nothing to patch upgrade ever no patches. No upgrades wouldn't know how to do that in the first place well which is why won't be a problem exactly turn your idea into a new website showcase your work announcing upcoming event or special project and you know what i can do. What can you do. I can make a wedding website for myself after my first day. This is so dark. Make it yourself easily create a website by yourself just such a freak. This is wrong with oh. This is so funny so you start by going first date you get the measurements of your first day person while they go to the bath while they go to the bathroom you order them and indochino suit. You start your wedding website. It's pretty exciting. It is and then they get back in there like social. We get another drink and it's like well yeah we yes. He needs to go over some things yeah. I'd love to get another drink quick question. Are you a peak lapel guy or a notch lapel guy. What do you mean. I'm ordering you a suit for what our wedding leading where you're going so today in this town checkout squarespace dot com slash crooked for a free trial when you're ready to launch us the offer code crooked to save ten percent on your first purchase of a website or domain whether you're starting a small business or creating a fantasy wedding website the world is you're always squarespace. He's great and as always hot america's brought to you by the cash the cash app simplest and easiest way to pay people back. Have your friends pay you back. You go to the app store. Play store you download the cash. You put in the code. Pond save p. o. d. s._a._v._e. Or the coats mentzer or the code spencer isn't real proud of you ever met spencer now but i saw a picture of him on so i know he is real yeah. He israel hits but if you put him in code spencer isn't real or spencer or pod save you get five dollars through the cash shop and five dollars goes to donors choose which is providing supplies in the classroom. You can go and it's a great. It's a great organization. That's helping teachers make sure they have what they need to teach. Their kids in their classes says because often they don't because our priorities are out of whack. They're bad. They're bad but you're not so download the cash up. We're switching to the cash out. We're or not using the other payment apps anymore. <hes> let's say you wanted to buy a penny hardaway jersey for example but you didn't have a lot of cash on you. Your a friend could buy it in cash and you can cash them and then you gotta cash up story of the time you penny hardaway jersey and got a frame by frame bitch brings awful circle definitely got two ads in one there you bet and please welcome to the show the host of the excellent solent and relatively new political podcast hacks on tap republican strategist mike murphy and my good friend and former boss david axelrod. Thanks for being here guys. Good good to be with you. Thank you back to the u._s._a. It's good to be back. It's good to be back. It doesn't seem like i missed too too much so we were just talking about <hes> <hes> that trump's lost summer story in the washington post from over the weekend ax. You remember very well how poorly the summer of twenty eleven went for obama do. Do you guys think the difference is here with trump. And what options do you think the trump campaign has to strengthen the president's position ahead of twenty twenty twenty. You know back you remember back. In the summer of two thousand and eleven i mean it was the it was the debt ceiling debacle that really pitched obama to the year of his presidency but even then his his polling number was what is trump's average <hes> which is basically it was in the low forties. It was hovering around forty forty two that that's trump has never broken fifty percent so that's one difference. Which is that was a low point. This is the average for trump. The other thing is what what murphy just said which is <hes>. I mean trump's <hes> i i. I believe increasingly that the way you beat trump. Is the trump exhaustion thing you know everybody talks about martial arts tau who's tough enough to take on trumpet. I think it's ju jitsu that is gonna be trump you using his own negative energy against him. Just the the sort of exhaustion that comes with president who divides every day who <hes> you know for profit who who who sent out these crazy ass tweets and gets into these ridiculous tantrums <hes> and gratuitous fights that produce nothing <hes> and you know just the utter chaos at range around him and i think that's going to get worse as the election approaches not better so the difference is we saw problem and and we developed a strategy to deal with it and we came out that september mid jobs speech and we never looked back. I don't think trump has that capacity. I don't think he has the capacity to find remedial strategy and execute it. Yeah i think i heard you guys talking about this on on your podcast but do you sort of think that that trump in his campaign has sort of given up on <hes> you know improving trump's political standing and basically they're hoping to just make the campaign all all about the democrat because they're only hope is to sort of depress turn out and disqualify the democratic candidate. That's my best guess. I mean the problem with being trump. Strategist is one trump hates his own strategist. He just wants to argue about invoices and to he won't listen to anybody so when you're sitting around trump headquarters watching the cable tv t._v. Feed you and you're sitting there if a bottle of whiskey and a revolver staring at the screen knowing you have very little influence to do anything about it and most of the grownups are gone to so do campaign's always do when they can't fix the big problem you focus on the little stuff oh new refrigerator magnets. You know what's the negative ads. We're going to run so i think they're going to do the easy easy. Strategy which is to try to crush the democrat and if the dams go on at least in my view <hes> complete joy reid <hes> to the progressive left to try to win two things to beat trump and get a policy agenda that is a lot more than normally in presidential elections. They're taking a have a lot of risk because they're giving trump and his campaign something to work with and one thing republican campaigns even ones of no strategy in an insane president know how to do is scare the hell <music> out of the working class in the middle class by grinding liberal democrat in the applesauce so i think that's exactly what you're going to see so i wanted to ask you about this too like how much i mean we know that voters don't choose based purely on a checklist of issue positions or ideology. You know i think to myself feels like the two thousand eighteen race you know. Cureton cinema flips arizona. She's a very moderate candidate. So there's a case there okay moderate democrat can flip a tough state but then you see someone like like tammy baldwin wins in wisconsin you know which hilary lawson and she's medicare for all shared brown's very progressive. He wins in ohio. So how much do you you think in the end and a presidential the ideology of the democrat matters to voters or do you think the person just can't it just needs to sort of present themselves else as a candidate who can sort of bring the country together well look presidential races are different than any other kind of race because you're judged and kind of three dimensional form. You know it's the m._r._i. For the whole thing that i said years ago which is people you know judge judge you <hes> not just on the basis of the policies that you espouse but also on what they see every day <hes> and so and i think that's going to be particularly important in this race against trump. I do think i want to answer your question but i just want to go back one step and and say if you or i or murphy were invited advising trump in all fairness <hes> you would say you can't win a referendum and and and and we would say very few incumbents do the fact is <hes> barack obama may not have won a referendum in two thousand and twelve <hes> but we knew it was a comparative race and we knew mitt romney would likely be the nominee and we knew given what happened with wall street and everything that we had a comparative advantage and we just i went at it a relentlessly yeah and so you know it is not it is not unprecedented for trump to want to demonize <hes> <hes> the opponent <hes> so you know but i do think <hes> if my jujitsu theory is right it is. I don't think people are going to be looking forget about the ideology for more pugilists. I think they're going to be looking for someone who <hes> who who who will not do it. Trump is done. They'll be looking for the remedy. Someone who can bring some calm and reason and empathy and humanity to the presidency and i think that <hes> that may trump all the no pun intended to all the issues stuff yeah yeah and i think this is one of the problems warren has the weather is quite ascendant and is running the best campaign every fifth word of any sentence. She'll say in front of a television camera is fighter and i agree with david that there's gonna be a huge market for huge style contrast trump. 'cause it's so damn exhausting but you know this is still a fundamental presidential race that country's has been trying to fire trump since inauguration day every special election we republicans of either done bad or awful <hes> the mid term so if the democrats democrats don't get in the way of that and teflon up rather than going kind of narcissistic and trying to make a big point about identity or progressive <hes> policy and get out of the way the country will fight trump but if they get out of the way and give trump something to work with it'll be like the romney campaign trump may be able to make it a referendum on the challenger. That's what are you. What do you think about this because you <hes> you know you guys are <hes> kind of the voice of of rest of progressivism yeah <hes> and you've been kind of you've been negative on the <hes> on the you know. Let's pick the least offensive of choices strategy. What do you think about full because i also i. I think there were two parts of the obama message right there. Was you know he would always talk about bringing people together and he would try to <hes> inspire the country and and call them to try to emphasize unity but then at the same time we always made sure that he had an economically populace us message because you know that when the people that were trying to reach in in places in the midwest and other places are feeling you know economically <unk> disadvantaged and they respond to a message about you know they respond to economic populism so in that sense i think warren's messages giving people people something to vote for in to get excited about but i do you know every once in a while. I do wonder if voters are also going to respond especially some more more of the you know sub- suburban voters of the independents that have come our way to respond to a message <hes>. That's all right. Aren't you tired of the division and and the bullshit from donald trump. Don't you want someone who can bring us together you know. I don't think it's suburbanites but i you look at the polling and trump has a real weakness this <hes> with some of the <hes> non college educated and i always hate that phrase but it's it's you know it it. It's meaningful <hes> <hes> women in rural areas. He's you know he's barely above water with them now. In terms of his approval and i think it has a lot to do his favorite but i think it has a a lot to do with that with just they can't abide him. You know not as policies they they pretty much like his policies <hes> but it is him and so i think this is a big is a big thing and <hes> you think i worry about is <hes> trump is a cultural warrior. Even economic issues are surrogate for you know for race for other kinds of cues <hes> to people people and so <hes> <hes> you know i. I do think some attention needs to be paid. One of the things you you mentioned obama. We never we we we. We were very careful about navigating these cultural issues yeah <hes> and he was very you know he he ran you know better than and many democrats do in some of these areas you wouldn't expect because he focused on the economy and these larger messages of community <hes> and and he navigated around these hot button cultural issues. Which are you know very much at the center of a lot of the democratic debate right now yeah. I guess there's like two groups of voters odors that i worry about and that i think democrats have to really think about one group is the so the obama trump voters right who voted for obama once or twice and then went to trump yep and the other group is some of these obama voters who stayed home in two thousand sixteen or voted third party in sort of larger numbers right and people voted third party the an eight and twelve and i one and those those voters tend to be younger. They tend to be people of color. They tend to be poorer and i wonder if you know a democratic candidate candidate who has gives people something to vote for that is exciting and inspiring helps. Bring some of those people out. Although i agree with you that you it's a balance right like like you need to get both groups of voters so the question is don't you think trump does that. Though the brings them would be my argument. I mean if you gotta make a bet bet on trump to drive everybody crazy because we know he's great at that. The question is how do you sliver away. Voters from trump who might be populist who bought into obama but not hillary clinton and one way is not have to send the subtext signal that if you voted for trump you're racist redneck idiot right <hes> 'cause then you just give trump something to work with so that's why the dem's need to get it better from even how they think about stopping their campaigns at attracting the voters that they have the lowest contempt for voters they need people who eat fried food and living mccomb county michigan and trump yeah aren't that woke and aren't that green you know they they've gotta go plan the other sides of the football field and their end zone and shave up you of them and they can do that but not if the campaign message you saw in colonel in the in the progressive culture that it's off pudding yeah my view you on this is i think it's less about the actual issue positions you take and it's more of a tonal message issue. You know it's how you speak to the country every single day that's probably have can i just ask you one thing <hes> about <hes> we were talking about this earlier on our own <hes> podcast <hes> bernie and and elizabeth who <hes> you know very much in contention up here with biden <hes> but also in contention with each other <hes> <hes> for a progressive votes and for the votes of young people how how does that sort itself out and if it doesn't sort itself out and both both of them have the resources to go deep into this race <hes> if they don't sort it out doesn't that <hes> further strengthen biden. Yeah i think it does i think that's i think that's one of the challenges both of them have and i think that neither one of them wants to blink on this because they both have you know bernie sort sort of has this base of people very very excited about him and obviously he's lost some support from twenty sixteen but you know that was probably a group of people who were just anti anti hillary voters than pro bernie voters but he still has this twenty something percent of <hes> of of voters with him. I don't know will leave him and then the the the challenge that warrant faces is she's competing people think it's like oh she just competing with bernie for voters but it's these college educated white liberals that she's compete with with comal harrison buddha judge and even others in the race as well and so i wonder if she can sort of enlarge that pie and i don't know if they'll i don't know what the difference like if you know if they've talked about the difference between them or they will at this debate i mean she doesn't seem like she wants to draw the contrast at the debate she said yesterday she wasn't yeah it yesterday she wore. She hinted that she wasn't going to do that. I think their view is that she doesn't have to <hes> bludgeoned bernie. She just has to outperform him right and i suspect they think if she winds up you're bernie it's time to bludgeon her. She's the butter product there and your flatlined going slightly down. She's growing every day with the superior campaign. You cannot live that equation continue on the timeline but i think the question you guys have talked talked with this too. I think the question there is not one candidate in this race has drawn a contrast really none. None of the major candidates with elizabeth warren and i wonder what bernie <music> argument against warren is. I think you can purity jay le- let we've talked about this on on tap. She has started to leave breadcrumbs from a little bit on <hes> you know medicare for all and some of that stuff i think going around purity. She used to be a republican then she was kind of a neo con and some social so policy in her book. David brooks could column on this. We talked about today so you know go wetter on the one thing. Bernie has purity. He believes every word of it does she. I asked a i on this point. I was in iowa for my c._n._n. Show and i asked <hes> them both about medicare for all and she had been roughed up the night before by a question or who was unhappy about the taking the choice of private insurance away and i said does that influence your thing and she says of course it. Does you know we're going to have to manage this transition and carefully. We need all the stakeholders at the table and son. I asked bernie same sort of question and he said you know i'll tell you it's seismic is seismic is mic his four hundred thousand people going to lose their healthcare or go bankrupt this year because they healthcare and so on and you know and he and he described his for for your transition to medicare for all eliminating private insurance and he said i don't think that's radical at all so you know i think that <hes> at the end of the day he's going to try and make the case if he makes the case <hes> that he's the real deal and she you know she is hedging edging. Yeah <hes> so you know we'll see but i think the people who make the contrast with elizabeth next week. Potentially <hes> is not bernie but other candidates dates biden perhaps but also buddha judge a harris <hes> people who are looking to carve into the less populated it'd lane the biden seems to occupy largely by himself which is this you know centre-left sort of moderate <hes> lane and <hes> if if they if those guys don't start carving out some of that turf <hes> i think they're going to get squeezed because there's not a lot of room on the left yeah in in this race so both of you have been plenty of debate prep <hes>. What advice would you be giving to joe biden right now if you're on his campaign for what to do in the next week nick. That's a great question <hes> well. I think biden the bind campaigns weaknesses. Sometimes they decide they wanna put a wall around biden right and because they're afraid of biden's biden this. They got nothing else. They ought to bottle it. It's all they have is all heart and he's all normalcy so they just need that a little romance insta- that and make a thing out of the fact that i didn't flies about that because he is the most authentic guy in the race <hes> elizabeth born stafford twenty eight figuring out those clever words pizza mckinsey consultant is here to explain why replacement for robots good idea and tone so let biden sweat bleed be biden <hes> and in and battle that and bet on it because it's all you have and so i think they need to <hes> you know he needs some discipline and how he speaks and everything but i i would. I would let joe do the naked on iraq strategy and just be joke because it's all they had so be great at it well. What do you think harry. He the <hes> you know. I i think <hes> i think john that he has to <hes> he has a theory of the case and it may be right and it may be wrong and that's theory is that the thing that unifies democrats is a fundamental desire replace donald trump and to restore a sense of decency amp ac- <hes> <hes> you know humanity to the presidency and you know i think he has to you as he has to cleave closely to that you know last time he needed to kind of spar with every candidate <hes> in order to prove that he could after the first debate <hes> but it wasn't a great look no <hes> you know and if he wants to advance his message he should lean into his message and that that is his message <hes> <hes> that <hes> he represents a return to decency you know i i don't think normalcy is necessarily the word you you wanna use <hes> because because that's a has a backward sounding kinda normal as buddha judge points out normal is not necessarily appealing everybody but <hes> decency he is empathy. Is you know and i i <hes> you know i would as much as possible. Try and run my debate against trump less against the others <hes> he may want to have a tattoo with elizabeth about <hes> medicare for all with bernie <hes> but by and large i think the more he's debating trump the better off. He is so on the other side. What advice would you be giving. One of the candidates like warren <hes> who hasn't quite made a real dent in biden's front runner status yet. I mean like you comma harass. You could argue that she had sort of short term gain from didn't really capitalize like how no one has really sort of found the message against by that really works and and then you know you're on twitter. It's like every gaffe magnified and i don't know if that's really worked against him either. So what is the message against biden for something. You're elizabeth warren you. You have the formula that's working because the only thing that's happened in the race really is you've gone up other than the early blip to kind of put pete in the race and she knows her messy. She's good at had it and i don't think she has to worry about knocking biden out and she has to beat them in iowa new hampshire when she could be on a trajectory to do so i would just do more of what i've been doing which is strength strength strength fighter fighter fighter and trying to do the pivot from the terror of the harvard faculty lounge to the fight and grandma from oklahoma and maybe a little of that but but i think there's not a lot to fix their she tactically has to say in the center of the debate and not be you know <hes> jolted bolted bhai all these other people who wish our ilk and she is now in the way any hope to have you might say a death rattle thing going on with some of the amy klobuchar and cory hookers who just haven't gotten any traction of course done a little better where they're desperately trying to break out casino. The clock is ticking so there could be some bizarro fireworks from that but <hes>. I don't think there's a lot she needs to change. I <hes> you know i agree with that. I all of although one thing i think she needs to focus on. She's done really well well. As you point out fives with <hes> you know college educated very liberal voters. She's done very well with young voters. She's vying with bernie <hes> for a lot of them she <hes> but but she hasn't broken through with a working class whites even though her message is very much geared that way and she hasn't broken through with african american voters and i think she needs to be more you know betsy from norman oklahoma than professor warren from cambridge yeah and a little more bio <hes> a little more revealing about herself. <hes> i think would be really useful here yeah yeah which she doesn't a stump very well to <hes> last question acts you. You were just in iowa talking to all the candidates for your x-files special on c._n._n. <hes> who are what surprised you there. <hes> you know i knew that warren was doing well. I was <hes>. I was even more impressed. <hes> when i got there to see see just the the the the degree of organization that she has their you know she started very early. Even earlier than obama did in two thousand and seven you know she grabbed grabbed emily parcel. Who's someone you probably remember was our political director in iowa in two thousand and seven and eight who is a or an iowa organizational. Whiz and i think she's just doing everything right. I was surprised at the i did a full like a focus group with voters and we spoke oh for an hour and joe biden's named income up until i introduced it and what i found in iowa was that people have a great deal of affection for him a a great deal of respect for him but there's not a lot of enthusiasm and i think that's a real problem in a state where you're asking people to come out on a snowy cold night in february and stand up in front of their neighbors and declare their preferences he he needs to find a way to ignite <hes> some of these voters. There's bernie has has his his his group but i was surprised also <hes> at the wing ding which is a big event up in northern iowa all the candidates attended at the amount of visibility for a kamla and footage which suggests to me that they're beginning to develop organizations since there and if there and if they can catch fire they may ultimately be able to build the infrastructure they need to make a moving iowa <hes> and you know beyond that i think the top five or the top five and it's gonna be hard for others. Booker has a great infrastructure hasn't hasn't quite caught fire there. <hes> others are lagging behind. I think you're gonna see potentially some shifting among those top five <hes> <hes>. I'd be surprised if one crazy prediction which is biden will come down not too well but new hampshire. I think he's going to get hurt. We'll probably by worn. A lot can happen in the last few weeks. There's you guys know well but if in those eight days between our eight or nine days between i win new hampshire new hampshire gives biden dramatic it comeback. He'll be the nominee <hes> if not. I think it'll be somebody else. We lose pricing. Joe biden in new hampshire is going to be the moment yeah yeah. I was thinking that too <hes> acts murphy. Thank you so much for doing this really fun. Everyone everyone goes through scribe and listened to on tap. It's <hes> it's fantastic. Thanks is john appreciate it today with you. Thanks to acts and murphy for <hes> for joining us today and you know we'll. We'll see you and thursday by by positive. America is a product of crooked media. The show is produced by michael martinez. It's mixed and edited by andrew chadwick. Kyle seguin are sound engineer. Thanks to caroline rest in tiny so monitor katie long production sport into our digital team elijah cone normal conan and milo cam film and upload these bad boys every week.

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