Conference Tournament College Basketball Betting Tips with Ralph Michaels March 2, 2020
With that we transition over the college basketball side of things and bring on professional eighty. Get but Ralph Michaels from wagertalk DOT com today man. Doing Great Adamos great to see out here in Vegas. You know. It's nice to see the hype that your baseball guides getting. And the respect you get from the media people out here it. It really is a A nod to the hard work and the dedication you put into it. I definitely appreciate that great to see you last week as well and obviously this isn't kyle hundred. Kyle Hunter out sick here on today's show. But we bring Ralph back great to get him back on the show. It's been a little while here. We're GONNA talk about some of the conference tournaments that start here this week. Some of the conference tournament betting strategies things of that sort rough. I guess we'll start with that because the postseason begins on Tuesday night Atlantic Sun Big South Horizon League and the Patriot League. What's different about betting? These conferences tournament games as opposed to betting regular season games. While I think you're gonNA find that I like betting big dogs especially early those teams that have had losing streaks going into the conference tournaments because number one. It's a restart of the season for them number two. You have to remember that. These teams are playing back to back to back days off very often. And if you get that big lead. Are you resting pooling your starters? Are you playing your bench? Are you going deeper and deeper your bench to get some more depth moving forward so the mindset is quite a bit different handicapping with the and for those for those underdogs? They continue to give one hundred percent effort to the final buzzer. So again I mean this is a one shot deal for a lot of these teams here especially these early conference tournaments the on big south Patriot Horizon Ohio Valley Northeast. The West Coast is not going to be a one bid league this year neither or the Missouri Valley will be a one bid league as well so yeah one shot here in a lot of these early conference tournaments. So Do you feel. Like you can still handicapped motivation. Even though there's only one bid available I don't think you're handicapping completely different when you have conference tournaments and when you have the NCAA tournament. I think you're not handicapping motivation. That's quite a bit different in the where I think. Motivation in the early Games is one of the most important factors handicapping handicapping some of those smaller conferences for teams. That are are disappointed in the tournament. They're in all right. So let's look at some of these conferences tournament specifically and start with the Atlantic Sun Tournament. And unfortunately here the sports books pretty slow to react here on Monday morning. We don't have odds for most of these you'll book I've got odds for is the circuit for the Horizon League tournament. Don't have anything other than that. So we'll try to do the best. We can't here with some strategy and some of the things that we're looking at here but in the ace son. Liberty is your top seed. You're overwhelming tournament favourite. Once we get numbers posted everywhere even though liberty in north Florida tied with identical thirteen and three records and North Florida. In fact actually beat. Liberty wants out of their two meetings but this looks like it's liberties tournament to lose and also to this a different handicapping strategy with these tournaments because all of these games are at campus sites. You have to factor homecourt advantage into the equation and I think homecourt advantage for the tournaments is even bigger than in the regular season. Now even though you're having to give some of your seats up and and some of the conferences you know you have to give seats to each of the schools. I think there's the familiarity. The added Edge. The the crowd be at not as large as a regular crowd. But you know when when you're playing these back to backs you have to remember college. Kids are accustomed to this. They're they're going on the road and they're leaving that night or they're leaving first thing in the morning now. These kids are staying in a different setting. It's it's the tournament typesetting that some of them played in November. But it's not a tournament typesetting because you're prepping for those next next team. So I actually give the coaches a little bit of a higher edge than I do when I have my coaching ratings and I give the home-court edge for those teams having a little higher as well that makes it a whole lot of sense here and again. I mean liberty last year one this conference tournament and in fact if you remember. They went on the road to lipscomb and one this conference sermon. That was a very very good lipscomb team. Last year on the two thousand eighteen team was also very good this year. Lipscomb draws the three seed because they had had a higher net rating than Stetson. That's in one of the other teams. That beat liberty here over the course of the season and Lipscomb just did it in the regular season finale but Ralph looked up and down this conference here. Is there any way you could look at anybody other than liberty to win this thing? Yeah again I am not. I am not giving it to liberty because I do like this North Florida squad you know you. Have you have one of the most efficient offenses in the country? Their problem is defense but a lot of times you can. You can live by the defense. I liked the way they finished going down the stretch. Winning eight of their last nine. You look at the LIPSCOMB game. They played on the road. They lost eighty five to seventy three and it was the game that they shot very poorly one of their were shooting games. So in the second meeting in the second beating when they've played liberty They they beat liberty at home. Seventy one seventy then they lose by five. I give North Florida shot. And a Lotta Times Adam. I think it's actually good to talk about. Play these Games through in your head before you see the odds because even handicapping for thirty five years. There's Times you look at the odds. And that's ways your opinions on these games who you really think might be able to win so You know I do like going through these it just like much like I do bowl games. I like going through all the bowl games. Making my lines before they come out because then you don't have that misconception or or again think this team has this big favourite. Do I really think this dog has a live shot? And there are some other teams. That will talk about here a little bit with some of these smaller conference tournaments that fall into this same boat but it seemed like North Florida as you mentioned very good offensively not good defensively at all. You're going to have a lot of teams like trying to figure out of my head. But you're GONNA have a lot of teams here that you know rate very well defensively but not as well offensively. Na Conference Tournament Tournament format like this. Are you kind of leaning towards the offense over the defense or vice versa? I usually lean defense. But if I'm GONNA take an north Florida's not a flyer by any means they're going to be the second favorite but I like taking teams. That are three point heavy and they shut thirty eight percent from three point a league best and you know. I'm going to go back. And people if people remember back in December or the end of November when Michigan got hot and Beacon Zag and went through their run. What happened they got on fire from three and North Florida? I liked those teams tournament. That can shoot a three well can win on the road and has the ability to get hot from three point. Land all right so we take a look at another conference tournament here. This is another very very small conference the Big South Conference tournament this one also starts on Tuesday night. The bottom six seeds play. They all play on campus sites. You've got high point at USC upstate Campbell at UNC Ashville Presbyterian at Charleston southern Thursday. The set of the quarter-finals begin. Those are all held at Radford's campus. Because they are the number one seed. Same thing with the semifinals in the championship. Game on Sunday March eighth played at the home site of the highest seed which if Radford wines upholding up. That's where the game would be played if not it could very well be in. Rock Hill South Carolina at winthrop. Something like that but Radford and winthrop tied with fifteen and three records way to go to the second tiebreaker for Radford to be the number one seed winthrop is the number to here and those are the two best teams in this conference but Gardner Webb kind of lurking Campbell. Sort of looking after that then. A bunch of bottom fifty caliber teams year in the big south so as sort of handicap through this tournament. Ralph your who do you kind of have your eye on this team to win this thing. Well having the Home Ed j as I just said I I give the edge so I expect Radford to win this but you know my dark horse would be Gardner Webb. You know you lost. Who was the preseason player of the year for Peres for Multiple Games if he can come back and and can get healthy and and start playing on his status. I haven't I haven't been able to get an update on them but You know they're they're certainly a team that. I look at and and was leaning forward. You know the other the other team down the stretch you know Longwood Longwood finished well. They're they're the best defensive team and as I said there's certain times I like offense with the three but if Longwood could get any type of shooting you know that that is a team that finished seven and three down the stretch the last ten games and you know one thing I I wanna point out at him you and I talk about bar tour vic dot com often and when I get into these tournaments couple things I look at is I go in and if you go into bar tour you can put a start date on the top so I go back and I look at what. These teams did their last ten games. I go back to the end of January. Punch Ma'am you see their offensive and defensive efficiencies and then I also got a stat Fox. Because they're the easiest to pull down and pull down all the road stats so you look at the teams did on the road offensively and defensively point per game and rebounds and those are two things. I think are very vital. When you're breaking these conferences information. Wise to have it at at your fingertips. Yeah I agree I mean part is great especially because you kind of get those trend lines with some of the visuals that he has there. And you look at Gardner Webb here. They've won six. In the last seven they beat winthrop at home. They beat Radford on the road in a game that Radford. You'll I mean look. This was a team going for the number one seed there on Saturday and maybe they already had it locked up. I'd have to go back and double check that. But so Gardner. Webb beat those two teams the top two seeds here over the last month or so went to triple overtime in a four point loss at winthrop and that was three days after losing it home by three to Radford. So Gardner Webb Split. The meetings with the top two seeds and the losses were nothing to scoff at either and this of course a Garner team that won this conference tournament last year with the same head coach in Tim Craft and last year. There were a team in the regular season and conference play or ten in Eight I believe actually this year. There were eleven and seven. So Gardner Webb not a bad bet. Here obviously WanNa see what this price looks like when the odds come out but that may be one that you want to keep an eye on their in the big south even though a lot of people will say it will likely come down to read Radford and winthrop and it could but Gardner Webb a team with some upside. They're coming out of that. Three C line real quick. I want to circle back to the Atlantic Sun Conference because circus. Sports actually did post those as son conference tournament odd sear. Liberty is bias three fifty north Florida plus four twenty-five Lipscomb plus twenty two hundred North Alabama fifty to one simply Jacksonville then on down from their celebrity minus three fifty here with North Florida. Plus four twenty five. And if I gotTA SAY. I don't even know if liberties highest minus three fifty in a potential championship game against North Florida. I agree with that. I think there's certainly value there with with North Florida. North North Florida's a team with twenty wins on the season. I you know they have. They have one goto player. Qadeer Rosa is is a senior that that can that can light it up for him. I you know you have when you have a senior point guard. Who is your best player. I I completely think there's value with the ospreys are so let's go to the Horizon League here. We've got right. State the minus one ten favorite out at circuit that was as of yesterday Northern Kentucky Plus Two Twenty Green Bay ten to one Illinois Chicago. Eleven to one. Nobody else in this conference really has a great chance. Everybody else thirty five to one or higher but when we look at the horizon a couple of interesting differences for this season. The first is that they're going to reseed in the first and second round or in the second round so what that's going to do potentially is take away a long shot getting to the finals because the last two years we've seen longshots get to the finals in the Horizon League tournament last year or two years ago we saw Cleveland State. Get there as an eight seed. They lost the right state 2017. Milwaukee made the finals as a ten seed so the Horizon League really trying to make a concerted effort here to put their best foot forward get one of their two best teams into the conference tournament. The second interesting wrinkle here and Ralph. We could talk about this. For A COUPLE OF MINUTES. Is that the the first round games are at campus sites. The quarterfinal games are at campus sites. But the semifinal games and the championship Games Indiana Farmers Calcium. This is the home floor of. Up Y who is the bottom seed in this conference but when you get late these conference tournaments here. These are sites that these teams generally don't play at too often that can have a big impact on shooting numbers. Totals and things like that. It does but you know I actually. I love the way the Horizon League does it and give their one and two a double by you know. They're the number. Three team gets a single by so you know the three teams GonNa play the next highest and the day too. So you know all you have to do is if you're right state or your northern Kentucky is win two games and you know the question's GonNa come up. Oh it's hard to beat a team three times and I you know. I certainly think that right state in northern Kentucky the way it's set up we'll get there. Well you know for those. That didn't pay attention on the final day of the regular season right state was playing for the title against Northern Kentucky. Went into Northern Kentucky. Wins that game sixty four sixty two so I had to go to the database and I pulled out what teams do losing. Do An opponent twice if they have twenty or more wins Northern Kentucky has twenty one wins on the season so you have a quality team that has dropped both of the first two meetings to an opponent going all the way back to two thousand and ten. The listen to the average line is only two point seven in the situation. Which you expect your twenty-one team you have double revenge two point seven is the average line and you're only sixty five and ninety one straight up forty one point seven percent against the spread your seventy four seventy nine and three forty eight point four percent. So it's GonNa come up often in these conference tournaments about. It's tough to beat a team three times. Well it's not if you're the better team you know. It's tough to upset a team three times. That's certainly one thing but the beat a team three times teams do at fifty eight point three percent of the time. I think something. That's really interesting about this conference tournament. And maybe this is the reason. Why Right State has had some success against Kentucky massive pace war between right state and Northern Kentucky? Right state you know kind of a top thirty five team in Tempo Northern Kentucky of bottom fifty team and tempo and that will be interesting because the way that this is currently set up. It looks like you probably end up seeing northern Kentucky. Play Green Bay on Monday. Green Bay also likes to push the tempo also likes to push the pace so on one hand you can say Okay Northern Kentucky will have just played a game and a higher tempo. They're going to be more prepared for it. Taking on Wright state in a potential championship game or on the flip side they may play to very UPTEMPO Games back to back. That's not the nurses style. There are not a great three point shooting team. That could really work to their detriment. Here I kind of like right state even Chaki play minus one ten because like you said they got a win two games and even if they draw Illinois Chicago. Who is maybe the best defensive team in this conference? I still think they're draws a little bit easier. Ya again. I I have just slightly higher as far as defense goes right states right there as well but I completely agree with you. Green Bay is number eight and temple. As far as Ken Palm Ratings Go An- and right state is number thirty two for for these kids to be running up and down that court back to back nights the way they are when they're not accustomed to it. I think that would be a clear play for me where I can see a live betting situation. Where if the Games tied at the half I would clearly be on right state or even afraid states down a few as long as right state was able to control the tempo and get enough. Get enough shots off. Then I'd be looking to play right state in the second half. Well that's another excellent talking point here. I mean obviously you know with clients. You can't necessarily sell them. Second half plays. It's just such a small window but personally with bedding your bankroll these conference. Tournaments are a unique animal. Because as we've said you play back to backs or you play three games in five days depending on how the conference German is set up. Live betting second-half betting tons of opportunities for that here at this time of the year. Yeah and after member. Northern Kentucky has three sophomores in their starting lineup including a point guard. So you have a situation. Where is it surprising that you know down the stretch they went? What twelve and three losses to write state top three Defense Illinois Chicago at home top three defense right stated home top three defense so I think when you're playing those tougher defenses and you have that sophomore? Yeah Bryson Lankans played a lot and he started most of this year but he still is a first year starter. He didn't play at all last year. You know he red shirted so know I look at it and I think there's value with Wright state at at minus one ten because of the because of the only having to play the two games and just the better team the best player on the court. No question and the better coach. You know you have to remember that Northern Kentucky is you know is a first year under Darrin Horn. He stayed home. Obviously he was an assistant there. As as the as the coach from last year John Brannon went to Cincinnati. But you have a first year head coach coaching his first tournament. I think that's a negative as well all right so another conference tournament that starts on Tuesday. Here we've got four of them to talk about the ace on the big south the horizon. Now we talk about the Patriot league this obviously going to be a one bid league but you know what we don't have any odds for this conference tournament but it does look very very interesting because usually we think. Patriot league we think Bucknell. They're not very good this year. In fact it's been kind of a struggle for them a little bit here of late. Colgate is the number one seed American and be tied with twelve and six conference records. American gets the two CD tiebreakers. So beat you. Is it three seat here? Army and Lafayette tied at and eight but army won both head to head meetings. They're the four seed all of these games on campus sites. This is not a conference tournament that this is a pretty decent conference though where a lot of these teams are pretty interchangeable out of these teams grade. Pretty equally VIC. Maybe we've got some value on somebody that's not the number one seed colgate. I mean you're looking at you know the top team. There was no one that dominated down the stretch as you said looking back at the last ten games American colgate and Boston University were all seven and three loyal Maryland. Lafayette Army were all. Six and four. Lehigh was five and five. So you know you add into that situation. The home-court Edge. I it's GONNA be. It's going to be big and I look at the best defensive team. Best Defensive Team is American no question. The best offensive team is going to be Boston. I think Boston you has has a shot. The way the way he has he has finished played. Your normal tough schedule down the stretch. You look at how they finished. And they're like nine and three their last twelve. They lost a colgate by sixteen. That was a game that just got away from Lafayette. A two point loss Lee high in overtime loss by two points. They've been in every game and a team that I have circled that I'll look at. Don't also get to the window with him but I certainly may be on them once or twice betting wise one of all throw out here is actually Lafayette and Lafayette is going to be a team where we talked about betting future. We'll also talk about money line rollovers and I think the money line rollover more often than not going to be a better course of action for you. Because you're going to get a much bigger price then that initial futures investment and also to the way you hedge your money. Line Rollover is this simply stopped betting it if you bet a future and that team gets the championship game while you probably have to invest more money on the other side to make your hedge. Lafayette is the Five C. They are on the road at army. That's going to be a pick em type of situation there but this Lafayette team. They beat Boston University. They lost a B. You buy a point. They've played very very well against colgate. They had they. They actually beat colgate twice in the regular season. Lafayette is very inconsistent. Though they've played up to the superior competition down to the inferior competition so there is some worrying that but that's why you take this money line rollover price where if they beat army your roll that over and underdog role against Colgate if they beat colgate you roll that over into an underdog role. It's probably American or you with the money. Line Rollover you look for upside you look for ceiling for a team that can go out there and score you. Some of these big upsets Lafayette's done it already over the course of the conference play season. That's one that I'm looking at here. As far as this conference goes I think probably colgate or be you ultimately wins it but Lafayette is kind of your risk reward type of play. Well you you know. You're you're looking at a team in Lafayette that you know has as a sophomore point guard and and then a lot of leadership in the middle. And you've got multiple guys that can score You're a team that shoots free throws very well. You shoot twos well. You don't shoot three wells but that's fine and two losses. A two losses is the most. You've had him back to back games all year. So can't can't argue with that play at all so we go to Wednesday here. We've got three conference tournaments getting underway. We won't talk about the North Eastern Conference Alva- preview actually of all of these thirty two conference tournaments over at Bang the book Dot Com. But let's take a look the mountain West Conference where we've got a lot more household names conferences. A lot of people are going to know bit better than some of those low major leagues. I'm astonished that it's wet starts on Wednesday and we don't have any odds out for it yet but what we do know for sure. Ralph is that -Sego state will be the clearcut favorite here. They will and you know. We talked about San Diego State a lot during the end of the regular season and I clearly thought it would help them to lose a game. I. I didn't think it was a positive thing to have an undefeated season. I didn't think it was a positive thing to have that win. Streak to try to carry over so we saw them lose to. Unlv no-one playing better ball in the country right now then. Unlv down the stretch. Just amazing losing their bigs and go into small ball and what they've done but you know now. Unlv of course host this tournament as they always do. But you know you saw San Diego State lose to UNLV struggle mightily to Colorado state and then struggled mightily in the first half against Nevada and then Malachi. Flynn takes over scores. I think thirty five in that game they pull away the second half against Nevada and now I think they're back. You know this. This is the team that yes you want to win your tournament. And it's a situation. Where if you were undefeated at this point and this is a little off topic but if you were undefeated. I wouldn't want to win my tournament and be undefeated that would just be the mindset. I have the other difference between this tournament and next week is if you are playing physical teams back to back to back to back games and you know you're in the tournament. I don't know if winning the tournament is that much of a priority for you. Obviously this week it's different. I'm talking next week when we look at some of those other tournaments. And let's say you're the big ten and you're one of the top two seeds and you have to play Wisconsin and Michigan State and purdue and you're GONNA get banged up three straight days hell. I'd rather losing around to take those extra days rest. Still be a three seed and be happy without having banged up with that said though now they have the entire week of rest having lost to. Unlv I think how helps them? Cav have revenge if they face them again Having you know having beaten. Unlv here in this setting gives them gives them momentum. I would not bet against San Diego state in this tournament but again you were talking about a prohibitive favorite and you know you're GONNA be playing air force or Fresno no problem then so you very well could have a second round game against UNLV. I like Utah. State Utah State to get to the finals. I think Utah states playing as well as anyone and if I can get Utah State Bob. Looking ahead to the finals and obviously it matters. You know how well you're playing but if I can get UTAH. State plus five or more down the stretch. I'd be happy to take them in the finals against San Diego State and if I'm getting Utah State if I think they're going to be a five point dog in the finals and a significant favourite in the other games you know if I could get plus two fifty as far as the tournament goes then. I'd be looking at them. Yeah I think so too. I mean you got four games in four days here for the teams at the plough Wednesday. Those are the six through eleven seeds as you mentioned this one at the Thomas and mack out in Nevada. Unlv with that homecourt advantage but obviously these fan bases travel. Because you know why wouldn't you WanNa go to Las Vegas at this time of the year? The thing that's interesting Cindy state here since two thousand nine. They've been in the finals. This conference tournament nine times. They are only three and six straight up in those nine games so this is a team that makes a good tournament. Run doesn't always finish it off. We'll see if they're able to do it here. I agree with you on Utah State because one of the things you're going to find in these conference tournaments teams that had really high expectations and fell well short of them. They are supremely motivated to go out there and try and get that bid back that they feel like they lost Utah State. Is that team to me. They are the most dangerous team in this conference tournament. We'll see what the odds are like here. Once that one rolls around rough one more conference tornado touch with you here on this show. That is the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. This is at the Ford Center in Evansville Indiana. The top eight teams qualify for this one Belmont. Your number one seed Murray State your number two seed Austin P. or number three seed Eastern Kentucky. The four seed with twelve and six in conference play but very very top heavy conference tournament here with. Belmont Murray State and then Austin piece so we don't have odds for this one out yet but how will you kinda stack ranking those three teams? I mean you want to talk about. Three teams. Battled out the entire year between. I mean if you guys didn't follow the valley between Belmont Murray State and Austin pay I Murray States wanted what three straight years now and you know again you have. Belmont with a first year head coach and I see Murray State to me as the team that I am going to bet. If if comes favored I am definitely taking Murray state in the number two spot you have you know when you're all conference all conference teams are basically going to be Belmont. Murray State in Austin. Pay Your top five guys in the conference you got multiple players with. Belmont with Murphy and Museum Ski and Murray State. Of Course Kevin. Brown and K Jay Williams are are just dynamite. I I'm going to go with the racers to win to win for a to win for a fourth straight time and I normally don't like taking teams with freshmen guards. And you know they have. They have Carter and Smith Freshman at the playoffs and and split the point but you know in in thirty games in. You're not really a freshman Even in their losses to me they held serve at home. That's what you do a good. A very good team wins at home. You lose on the road and you lose close games a seven point loss to Belmont. Nothing wrong with that. A three point lost in pay. Nothing wrong with that and three star three point loss to Eastern Illinois back on February twentieth so Murray State for me and then you know depending how far I might take a flyer on eastern Kentucky Again. Just because their uniqueness of being one of the fastest pace teams the hectic nece they bring you know the top the top ten in the country as far as tempo goes the only other fast team. There's only two teams in the top ninety with tempo in the Ohio Valley Belmont and Eastern Kentucky. So it sets those two apart. But I'm GonNa go with the Best Defense Murray state and with the been there done that and have one. I believe three straight make four straight. This one would be the third straight for them Jacksonville. State One and twenty seventy state team in two thousand seventeen only with eight and conference play so a rare down year for the racers. They have won back-to-back year though as their third straight one this year. What's interesting about this conference again? The double by four the top two seeds so Belmont and Murray state each only have to win. Two Games Austin P. has to play Thursday night then they'd likely run into Murray State if they win that game so that makes it really tough for Austin and again. They're one of those money line rollover kid. It's where the end are going to be a big favourite in the quarter final game but there'll be a dog to Murray state and they'll be a dog to Belmont in all likelihood here so maybe in Austin P. moneyline rollover going to be a better option than the street futures price but should be a good one there in Evansville. It was a good one on today's segment with Ralph michaels professional handicapper over at wagertalk dot com rough. Great to get you back on the show here man. What's going on over at the website right now? Well it's a nine dollar Monday. Every every packages only nine dollars and Tuesday's a great way for you to try capper. If you haven't seen the main Capela in Tuesday's two dollars so a lot of March madness information up there the NBA stat sheet goes up daily which breaks down the NBA over the last two weeks. And I'll of course be doing the first pitch that daily. Mlb newsletter with two full pages on every game. That'll get put out daily and it's always free homepage. Wagertalk DOT COM. What's GONNA make you fall? Ralph on twitter at Cal Sports. Lv and check out his work over at WAGERTALK DOT com. Ralph always a pleasure. Thank you so much for chatting with me and we'll talk to you again hopefully real soon. Thanks I appreciate it there you go. There's Ralph Michaels professionally together over at Wagertalk Dot Com at CAL sports. Lv on twitter coming up on our Tuesday initiative radio we'll chat with Brian blessing host sportsbook radio and Vegas Outline. We'll talk some NHL. We'll talk some golf. We'll talk probably some college basketball and a little bit of Nascar on that Jack of all trades segment. That'll do for me. Thank you so much with everybody and we'll talk to you again tomorrow.