Should Bloomberg Exist?
Hello everyone welcome to the forecast fast. Kate Baldwin here with John Avalon and Harry Denton. Should so nice. Tens of thousands of Nevada turned out to vote early this week. Ahead of their state's caucuses coming up on Saturday. Democratic Party leaders there they are hoping that the early caucus turnout will help. Prevent the kind of vote counting chaos that we saw in Iowa which yes is still undergoing partial this results. It's like this mothers like reruns have cancelled right. Exactly season four So with all that mind we're going to dig into the Nevada landscape and the forecast from there in a moment We're also GONNA focus on Bernie Sanders. He is sitting on top. He is the front runner building a very clear and substantial national league. We're going to dig into his front runner status and also talk about what his trend up means for. Everyone else in the race But First six Democrats faced off last night in Las Vegas another Democratic primary debate but in some ways it seemed like a whole new debate stage. Not only with Sanders as the front runner for the first time but with Mike Bloomberg making the stage for the first time. Where shall we begin? Mike Bloomberg Howdy do do do you wish to assure you need to know is all. I think first and foremost all you need to know is the statement coming from the campaign right afterwards. Which was. He's got his legs underneath them. Forty five minutes. Look I look I mean they should have been so? They were trying to set expectations low and they should have set them lower Look the reality is is that the other candidates have had a lot of time on the campaign trail to a lot of debates to sharpen and hone their messages and he hasn't and he's never been particularly good at campaigning. War You know interacting with the press. What he's good at sort of management leadership and things like that but it was really starkly in display and I gotta say not only. Is it inexplicable how he wasn't better prepared for attacks that you knew were coming even if you're not the most charismatic cat you can come up with like memorize a soundbite to respond to something? He was not able or willing to do that. But the focus of the fire being on Bloomberg I think was strategically. Really stupid for the other. Democrats because they should have been focusing their fire on stopping sanders. Who's on the ballot? Nevada really come out unscathed relatively actually thought Bloomberg laid upon. Shawna with three houses. But we'll get to everyone in Vermont. Apparently has the Lakefront property. Apparently everyone I just looked nationalistic. That's not true What maybe it's true in Vermont. It kind of utopias up there. I don't know but you know he took a lot of incoming fire But he's not even a Bloomberg but he's not even on the ballot until Super Tuesday and so- Sanders avoided a lot of the scrutiny. He needed and deserved from the other Democratic candidates. So you know He. Donald Trump probably did the best of this debate. Wait wait let him play. Let's play an array of the attacks that Bloomberg faced for for everybody. And then Harry you can have your say. Listen to this goodie. I like to talk about who were running against a billionaire who calls women fat broads and horseface lesbians and no. I'm not talking about Donald Trump. I'm talking about Mayor Bloomberg. I actually welcomed Mayor Bloomberg to the stage. I thought that he shouldn't be hiding behind his TV ads. Let's put forward somebody. Who's actually a democrat? My Goodness Gracious. You know. There's been all this complaints. During the primary season during these debates that Joe Biden was not a particularly good debater. Joe Biden look like frigging CICERO. Next up Michael. Oh my goodness gracious I. I you know I'm New York. You can hear my voice. I remember Mike Bloomberg debating against mark. Green Fernando Ferrer Bill Thompson. He was never this bad. I'll tell you this much. And I can't believe for someone who is so analytical such as the former mayor of New York to not have the rebuttals ready for the obvious attack lines that were about to occur. It was stunning and also say the backup Mr Avalon. It was also stunning that. It seems to me at this point. It's like we're doing a replay of the two thousand sixteen Republican primary where everyone wants to be the second to the front runner who is coming in trying to essentially take over the party obviously it was Donald Trump. Who's the front runner in two thousand sixteen this time around it's Bernie Sanders and it's like? This dude is climbing the thirty percents. What are we doing? I'M GONNA call a jump ball. I know we just played some of the attacks but since as John was talking about they were to to clear. Lines of attack that Bloomberg was going to get one. You needed an answer on stop and Frisk policy policing policy in New York. The second one had He needed to have an answer for a slew of allegations of sexual harassment And comments that are attributed to him that he denies but also says he regrets some of the things that he said in his past the sexual harassment allegations as well as a nondisclosure agreements that have been signed with women in the company regarding sexual harassment claims and when it comes to the NDA's that was particularly brutal area for them. Let's assume that he has gotten some number of women dozens who knows to sign nondisclosure agreements. So Mr Mayor. Are you willing to release all of those women from those nondisclosure agreements? So we can hear their side of the story. We have a very few nondisclosure agreements. How many how many none of them accused me of doing anything. Other than maybe. They didn't like a joke. I told and let me. Just let me. It's easy all the mayor has do is say you are released from the non disclosure. Look yet another area where Bloomberg should have had an answer ready and and the answer is you apologize say look. I've made some inappropriate jokes in my time. I'm sure I'm not the only person to do that. But let's not cater I off the ball. Because if we create a moral equivalence between my mistakes and Donald Trump's daily assaults on decency and women We're creating the same moral quences as some folks tried to do between Al Franken and Harvey Weinstein. They're fundamentally different. Stop distracting from the underlying issue. Which IS DONALD TRUMP? That's the answer he could have given he didn't give And by the way he's in a tough spot on this stuff I don't want to minimize minimize it. But he could have had a deft answer a and his hand did not but is he done is us the is that was that was that the beginning and Bloomberg right. I mean yes disdain the dismissal gross cape but yes rusty yes he did. There's not a lot of time to get better before the next debate but Super Tuesday comes right and that's where he really enters the race. He's got a wall of cash and he's got thousands of people that he is hired in terms of organization. That's still is a real thing. That's a real thing. I mean. One bad debate doesn't negate all that so I was in someone's office last night and essential show remaining our nameless. We'll just say that person has a large office. And if you look there were four screens up one was CNN which was not airing debate. One was NBC. Which obviously was airing the debate and at the same point that Bloomberg was getting smashed to Smithereens on NBC. There was a Mike Bloomberg ad airing CNN. And this I think is just the perfect manifestation of this entire Mike Bloomberg campaign which is essentially yes. So what I screwed up into the BA- basically going to overwhelm every body through this ad campaign. He marched out three endorsements following morning after the debate. From my words on on don't listen to actual words onstage. Listen to my campaign. Maybe it'll work. I I I mean you know. Look Joe Biden's state atop the national primary posed for a very long period of time despite bad performance after bad performance. I want to actually address a couple of quick things first of all if there are any Bloomberg ads against this podcast. We have no knowledge of it nor control for it. Okay so I think there's just a good play good disclosure. Second of all look yes. It's an unprecedented campaign But last night he really showed ultimately you gotta be able to go from Mike Bloomberg Mono Against Donald Trump in a debate. And you got to inspire confidence so you can do that. And and that's that he's got to improve on his feet. He's suffering from the fact that he hasn't had the practice and he needs to like build up his ability to like interact with humans. And that means having interviews and debates and putting yourself out there in town halls and other kinds of things second of all I do think that Biden benefited from Bloomberg's bad performance I would not count him out. Nevada and I would not count them out in South Carolina. He I think he's had had a strong debate last night. I really did. I also think poop judge did but to your point about the Bernie Sanders. I I think the two thousand sixteen parallels don't work for a ton of different reasons. Yes it's an insurgent campaign appealing to the base of the threatens hostile takeover but two important differences one. The Democratic Party is still fifty fifty liberals moderates and only twenty five percent. Is You know roughly identifies very liberal. So I don't know where Bernie ceiling is but he has a ceiling and it's not fifty one percent Or Unlikely to be. The second thing is Bernie has risen in the polls. Exactly the right time if you're Bernie Sanders but unlike donald trump hasn't been leading this whole time Biden really has until really recently. Now yes. The center lane is really fractured for the Democrats right now. And that's maybe why you saw that bizarre. And unappealing sniping between pitches Amy Klobuchar. I don't think it did either fans even though I think they both individually had decent debates I think it just showed between those two that they realize very clearly that the other the other one is in their way and it was time to do something and and their stand right next to each other and that that interview had just happened a short remember the name. Obviously like he she didn't he hadn't secured the line though that definitely throws her in your heels. You gone me dumb. She doesn't like him. That's what it comes down to. Sometimes you just don't like someone and you think that could be vice versa. Yeah and he may not like her. I you know it tends to be when someone doesn't like me then even if I'm was neutral name I tend not to like them at by. The entire thing was hilarious insofar as that both of them combined. You know we're looking at maybe. Earning maybe five five percent maybe ten percent of their lucky of the delegates on Super Tuesday. So you know you have this sniping between two people who really at this point. Look like they're going absolutely nowhere. I don't know man I don't know I mean this is like such a different conversation that we had two weeks ago ever Iowa I I would not I. I don't I could see one of them. Overtake the other in money and momentum and I think it's a mistake and I think I think had actually a really good debate. I have another question that sort of fascinating because we're not talking about Warren. Warren had a very strong domestic slashing and burning and really lit folks on fire. Not just Mike Bloomberg other razor in hand to do that at jump. Who's the question she's got a fiery performance? I know one of the reasons. She's not getting talked about his. Her Path is unclear. Abkhazia burning a distant fourth in New Hampshire. But is it possible that she sucked some of the votes away from Bernie last night because she's fiery and perhaps seen as more elective? Maybe I mean look. Let's first play the attempts at attacks. Shirt on Bernie the front runner when he because everyone made such a choice to go after Bloomberg he left relatively unscathed. Let's play those. I'm actually less concerned about the lack of transparency on Sanders Personal Health and I am about the lack of transparency on how to pay for his health care plan since he said that it's impossible to even know how much it's going to cost ridiculous. We're not going to throw out capitalism. We tried that other countries tried that was called Communism and it just didn't work. What are you thinking right now? Harry I I'm thinking you know with Warren stuff that I think is so important is that what are we discussed before? What is it that kills campaigns? One out of money exactly. And how much money has she been raising a lot of money not over the past week and even since the debate performance that is the type of thing that can keep her going to type of thing that can take votes away from Bernie Sanders type of things? That could perhaps take back. Some of the votes she lost Amy Klobuchar because remember. They're both sort of doing well with women older women with college degrees so I am going to be very interested to see that but I'm also interested in terms of whether or not Warren is able to dip into that more moderate lane. In a way that Bernie Sanders hasn't yet been able to perhaps kind of ameliorate S- Some of those attacks on communism that Mike Bloomberg perhaps was trying to throw out there. I mean I think she certainly has more capability to reach out out to the center. We'll see how it does but look one thing that we've been talking about and hair you've been saying it every year it's trotted out as a fantasia and it never crystallizes but unless some changes dramatically between here and Super Tuesday we could be looking to co brokered convention and that changes. Everybody's calculus if they have the cash to k stay in until the so in a nutshell. It was fiery. It was chaotic. They're yelling at each other. Mike Bloomberg has a black eye Bernie. Sanders is skipping out of Nevada. And they're kind of sort I that one and then on to South Carolina because next week another debate and another primary okay. Let's take a quick break when we come back here. He's got the latest forecast coming out of Vata. Plus it is official as we've already set Bernie Sanders is the current front runner. What does that mean for the Vermont? Senator that is up next sometimes. Democracy is a birthright. Sometimes it is a gift a it's a fight and I'm asking you to stand and fight with me Michael Bloomberg on bringing our country back together. This election is a referendum on the meaning of America. It is about what we will tell our children what we did at this time. This election is about whether we recognize that all groups who have been marginalized excluded scapegoated or far worse rise and fall together and that is our best hope standing together rejecting demagogues who tried to seduce us by dividing US and uniting behind the only shield that can protect us our common values as American citizens. And as God's children that is what the selection is about and that is why. I'm running to repair the damage and to move our nation forward together. 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The commercial break event hairy needs to put them better clothes. Okay and our second topic are sweatpants. Really Pants they are not. He's not allowed to come to this taping ever again. If the pants do not have a zipper and a button well well. They're still working on the final tally in Iowa no joke on to the next caucus state which is Davita Democrat the Democrats caucus there on Saturday. But Nevada's doing something different this time. They are allowing for early voting or early caucusing. And we'll get to that but first let's talk about the lay of the land you've got Bernie Sanders Harry Nationally. He's the front runner but give us a lay the land what. It looks like in Nevada. Yeah I mean look. Here's the deal. Folks deals pretty simple. The polling Nevada historically has not been exactly fantastic for their caucuses. We've had a very limited supply of at the polls that we have had are not necessarily the highest quality. But I think it's fairly safe to say that Bernie. Sanders is a favorite so based upon the Nevada. Polling predictive nece over the past few cycles along with the betting markets. I have these odds for you. So Bernie Sanders has a fourteen twenty chance of winning. That's approximately seventy percent Joe Biden is in second a two and twenty shot. That's approximately ten percent Buddha judge a one point five twenty which of course is about seven point five Cent Club. Shar an style about a one in twenty shot each morning and a one in forty shod each and I should say this that Bernie Sanders. Chance does seem to be getting higher the closer we get to the Caucasus. He's had some favourable. Polls that have come out. But given reeducation of the delegates given the lack of holing given the predictive nece or lack thereof of the polling and pass cycles a fourteen and twenty shot is a seventy percent shot which means essentially. There's a thirty percent chance that Sanders does not win the caucus which means that legitimately what we say. That sanders is a favorite. It's by far from a certain. What about the Culinary Union not endorsing anybody in specifically attacking Sanders because of Medicare I? I don't understand this whole thing is i. don't not only I would definitely argue hurt sanders it also hurts everybody else. They didn't endorse sixteen though. Yes but there was a very clear foot on the pedal for Clinton in that. And obviously if you're against Sanders in sixteen year four Clinton and just everybody. The Culinary Union was powerful Union It represents most if not all of the restaurant and Casino in Las Vegas and is a very powerful union in Nevada exactly and I don't understand this whole idea of an anti vote. You don't get an anti vote in a caucus or primary in this country. You get a motive for someone and if you don't give direction you're essentially going to allow sanders to win. Say With thirty percent of the vote while the rest of the vote splits. The field and people aren't necessarily making the fifteen percents fresh also giving up your maximum point of power. That happens every four years and I don't understand why they're doing. I think the reason they did it was because they probably wanted to endorse Joe Biden based upon the fact that the statement from From the Union was when the state came out that they weren't endorsing anybody. The only candidate they did mention positively was Joe Biden but I think they were afraid that he couldn't win but I don I you. You can't play not to lose. You GotTa play to win and at this particular point. I'm not sure anyone's really playing the let me ask you this. I spoke with I spoke with Sanders Top Advisor Jeff. Weaver and asked him about something. That Bloomberg's campaign manager said today which when when Kevin Cheeky was asked can Bernie Sanders be caught at this point. He says you said I think this is pretty. This is pretty close to a direct quote. Which was I'm going to be honest. I'm not sure and it scares me. I asked Jeff. Weaver about and he was like that's presumption you know. I guess fuse if he was confident that confident he said that'd be presumptuous. But is that presumptuous? At this point yes right. I mean we're what I can't figure out the game that's being played with number numbers. People do best if if Sanders looks like they're the only thing standing behind sanders being the party nominee say this reminder to everybody. Bloomberg is on the ballot Nevada. So I'm just saying. Yeah I I mean look I think with the reallocation in Nevada given the uncertainty the pulling he could be caught. I think will. Obviously it's a separate question about whether he can be caught overall. Yeah but I I. Again tying this back to the debate last night it was. Almost you know as if people are acknowledging that he can't be caught and therefore the place for second place. Yeah I know lay in Nevada as well and I don't really quite get that because folks. There's no prize for second place. It's not like you get you know half the nomination or something or a quarter of the nomination you lose you lose and I just bottles of mine whereby it seems to me that everyone is playing just to stay in the longest and then lose. Eventually I look again. I think if if it goes to convention. I'm not can without anybody having the requisite number of delegates I'm not sure sanders can actually clinch. But Biden's obviously he set the expectation for second place. I think they're regretting that But he stills best positioned in South Carolina. What is the impact that Nevada hasn't right? We always talk about the impact. I Want New Hampshire Nevada. Have less but I will say this. We have a smaller sample size. And what we do know is that I do think that. Clinton's victory in two thousand sixteen in Nevada help set the stage for the blowout in South Carolina to the extent of the blowout. Right she won by four fifty points or so. And if you looked at the pre election polls they weren't anywhere near as favourable to her as you sort of saw at the very end. It was very clear. She had this boost. Momentum if Joe Biden is going to do what he needs to do in South Carolina. I do think he probably needs to come in second place in the silver state and he needs to close out strong there which is still a real possibility. I just say also that Bernie Sanders you know. Knowing South Carolina being South Carolina's should be like the worst single candidate fit four south. Now it could be momentum over. Choose that but that's always been part of the calculus well let's focus a little bit more. Bernie Sanders showers and you become the front runner. You get your own segment Relations to questions strong front runner status right now. And where is the front runner status? Come from I think comes from well first off? I think it's pretty strong Obviously when you're leading the field in the mid to high twenty s and no one else is at twenty percent. That's a pretty good place to be especially given fifteen percent threshold for Dell delegates even if they're assigned proportionally. I and it's pretty strong. Given thirty. Eight percent of the delegates are going to be assigned by Super Tuesday And if you're in Sanders position given where everyone else is in the field. You're aiming to probably rack up. Forty percent of the pledged. Delegates already assigned through Super Tuesday. Give him the polling right now. but I think that it should be pointed out that basically comes from the fact that look. He hasn't lost yet really. He's basically tied in Iowa. He wanted New Hampshire. He looks like he's GonNa win in Nevada and all of a sudden that's the type train that historically speaking has been tough to stop and given that most Democratic primary voters favorable view of them somewhere between seventy five and eighty percent. You can see why rewrite history. What the conversation having after. Iowa was the Bernie. Sanders did not win. That P booted each one. Well the votes have been recounted and recounted again and more counts and more and more counts. Well it looks like they've separated by like surreal. Numbers say that only because it really was a genius strategy for people to claim victory and just keep claiming it when it was that type multiple rounds of momentum from it. Yeah and look I I will say I mean you know th currently believe has more delegates than Bernie Sanders so for some reason. We're not talking about that if this delicate game. That seems worth noting Obviously Nevada and South Carolina are going to be a big test for Buddha judge. But look the the the the. Let's just be open and honest about this Most folks who have held elected position in the Democratic Party certainly swing state re elected representatives and swing district folks believe that Bernie Sanders would be a disaster for the Democratic Party in November. They believe it would re elect Donald Trump and it would hurt them down about to the extent where they would not win the Senate and they would lose the house that contrasted against the enthusiasm the far left fields about the exhilaration of jumping off a cliff. Before you hit the ground. Seems like something to consider how that's one way to put it that way to put it. That's a that's essentially how Kevin Cheeky putting it would just Bloomberg's campaign manager. Does it work for Mike Bloomberg if he's only running a campaign beginning to run a campaign that looks like it's only anti Bernie. I think the grew is that how I I don't know if it necessarily helps and I'll say this you know we had an NBC News Wall Street Journal poll that matched up Bernie Sanders and Mike Bloomberg. And what did we see if those are the two candidates remaining and you had to choose between one of Bernie Sanders Beats Mike Bloomberg by twenty points The way that you beat Sanders or the way that perhaps sanders gets denied. Even if he is the delicate leader is the contested convention. That we've all spoken about right. Winning forty percent of the delegates through Super Tuesday is not winning fifty percent plus of the pledged delegates through Super Tuesday and obviously you need a majority of delegates to win the first ballon the democratic side. We could enter this Weirdo universe. Right where it's pretty clear that Bernie Sanders is going to have the most delegates going into Milwaukee. But it's also clear that he's not going to have a majority of delegates going into Milwaukee new and hence why Bernie Sanders on the stage. Last night thought that the person with a plurality should get the nominees versus position from two thousand sixteen of course denied to me which is critical ally. But look. That's actually maybe the likely scenario and I say that with some incredulity because we always talk about a contested convention. We haven't had one since nineteen fifty two. But then it'll be about what's likely to happen is that some candidate will sneak through the middle. Triangulate between Bernie and Bloomberg Maybe someone in the race now and could even weirdly hypothetically be someone else Schmila Riche Minton now and that note I will cut you. That's a wrap for us today. Thank you so much for listening. Everybody please make sure to subscribe on Apple. Podcasts stitcher Google podcast spotify or your favorite podcast APP. And while you're there please leave a comment. In the meantime you can always find us on twitter. I'm at Kate Baldwin John Avalon. And I'm forecaster Anton-. I'm both your twitter and instagram. And then use a much and we want to thank our team of behind the scenes Lauren. More Raj Makita Saint Louis and David Toledo. We only hire people with awesome cities as their last names. We'll see you next time on the forecast best.