Election 'Super Bowl' kickoff with Charlie Cook, Larry Sabato and Maria Teresa Kumar
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Hello. From Greater Washington I'm Chuck Todd, and this is the chuck todd guest. We are about eight weeks away from the election and posters are polling. To our new NBC News Bears Hold Five ahead up trump I nine points Pennsylvania state rich with by demographic strangers. These days of African Americans in older whites while the two candidates are locked in a dead heat in Florida, where Biden struggling with Latinos and southport victim. An interesting divide to watch Catholics, quickly active versus inactive right now, they tend to pick winners and the active Catholic slow there. Then there are. Hispanic. Catholic. On that for both part of the faith that is growing the fastest. Later in the show be joined by Latino CEO Maria Theresa Qamar to Discuss Biden is underperforming Latinos in my own sake but excels with them in states like. Texas but I it's a march through the battlegrounds with two of my favorite election legends Charlie Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato Sabotage Crisper Ball. Mister Uga himself as well. Welcome luck. Guys this is like our simple pregame show before the season starts in some ways you know. Just we get to let a rip here. We're at that point. Charlie, I'll start with you. This is a remarkably stable race that I feel like people are trying to will to become closer. I'm not sure if it's really tightening or we're just got a whole bunch of people claiming it's type. I. Think we everybody's been talking about Democrats having pay. T. S. Dave from November of two, Thousand Sixteen I. Think for political reporters an analyst a lot have ptsd to from the shock of November two, thousand sixteen and they're they're just terrified of being wrong again. And refused to recognize or just choose to not to recognize the fundamental differences between this race in two thousand sixteen, I don't think this is this race is closing at all and reflects stability that we saw on president trump. Trump's approval ratings. I mean, he had the narrowest trading range between his peaks and valleys and that three quarters of Americans have either strongly approve or strongly disapprove him. Ninety percent of Republicans are with him five, six, eight percent of Democrats are a totally against him. So you've got a certain structure that there's just not a lot of malleability in this race, and so I, I don't think I. Don't think this race has changed at all since the first of August. Possible. We may re run the twenty, sixteen race and the only difference will be there's no third party candidates of of note, and they're going to break for Biden two to one and we'll electoral. College result that will look like twenty twelve in will say oh Look remarkable stability. I think people are just they're the they're they're. It's it's almost like a weird confirmation bias where if you want to look for. Signs of of of of change if you look hard, if you can find something to a nail everything to a hammer, everything looks like a nail and people are looking for things but when you step back and just look at the data. And when you ask yourself out K roughly. Sixty close to sixty percent of Americans disapprove of the job the president's done handling the greatest crisis. Our countries had in three quarters of the century. So why would it be shock that he's behind eight to ten points and nothing seems to move it much Larry Sabato. The academic Scott Right for years ago in some ways by staying away from polling staying away from some of the stuff going with the going with the okay. WHAT'S HIS DADDY ECONOMY? You know what political party is due for a win all those little factors. Do you see the same race Charlie's. Well. Partly. You know I'm a big fan of Albert Einstein and I know he's not usually quoted in political matters, but he believed in parallel universes and provided some of justification for it. So let's use that analogy. we have one hundred parallel universes. Right now, I would say, Biden is likely to be president to win in sixty five or so maybe seventy of the hundred but Donald trump still retains the ability to win in perhaps thirty or thirty five of them. The question is which parallel universe are we in and we know we ended up in one that was extraordinary for years ago because Hillary Clinton had about the same odds I think it was around seventy thirty on the parallel Universe Front I. Think this race Titans, it's going to tighten toward the end. We always talk about tightening sometimes it happens sometimes, it doesn't we all think of races where it never really tightened. We can also think of races where it really did tighten and sometimes slept rarely, but it does I. Think you know there are still a pieces of this election that have not fallen into place. And if we are regressing towards the mean of twenty sixteen, which we may well be. then. Let's remember trump got forty six percent now right now I think most of us believe he can't get to forty six percent, but he might be able to because of the one really smart thing they've done which has spent four years identifying the trump voters who didn't vote either weren't registered didn't show up at the polls in two thousand, sixteen, they've. Had the money in the time to do it? Biden didn't even know it was the nominee until March So you have to allow for these possibilities while saying certainly Biden is the favourite, but I'm not gonNA fall into the trap of saying he's a heavy favourite. He's the favourite. That's enough for early September. How much is the political environment? Changed since twenty. This time in two thousand, Eighteen Charlie I. I think in terms of like what direction is the wind blowing in his light moderate or heavy I think you look at sort of generic ballot tests, for example. It looks basically. You know basically the same as where it wasn't November of two, thousand, eighteen and in two thousand eighteen, you know everything revolved around the president in the part of the country that had little small town rural it was it was a referendum on the president and he lost Democrats, picked up forty seats in the house in it gave you one message but in another America where small town rural it was a referendum on the president and. Republicans did great. Actually picked up two seats but the thing is everything is pivoted about him and to me I have no reason to believe that job approval is GonNa be any different in any less of a predictor accurate predictor of how incumbent presents going to do is in the past, and then you know we're all waiting with baited breath for the next NBC Wall Street Journal Poll. But you remember in in your last one, what seventeen percent. Think countries head in the right direction has seventy two percent wrong track. Those are the kinds of numbers that that that that are that happen. Win Win voters decide to throw a party out. So if this is a referee, you know a if this is a referendum on the incumbent, how does president trump ran and number two the only way that doesn't happen is if he makes Joe Biden totally unacceptable and you look at Biden's favorable unfavorable numbers and you know they're not fabulous they're not great but I tell you what the hell of a lot they're better. They're better than president trump's are, and there are held a lot better than Hillary Clinton's were. So. Larry. Sabato. Donald Trump is trying to do something that we've never done in American history become the fourth straight president to win reelection. We've never had a war in fact we when when Obama won reelection, he was only. It was only the second time. We'd ever seen three in a row win three presidents, individual presents when they second concern. In a row. Where in history would trump said if you pull this one off I mean, is there a corollary? I really don't think there is a donald trump is the exception to everything every rule he's ever known about politics and maybe every rule you've ever known about life. So I don't try to fitting in anywhere because in history in the long run, he's GonNa stick out like a sore thumb, but we don't want to get into that Let me comment if I can't chuck on something Charlie said I grew most of what Charlie said but. There's some hidden pieces to this election. How does trump get reelected I mentioned one about finding will trump voters, but it's pretty clear. They've decided to declare the pandemic over and we need to remember always that the largest chunk of his base will either believe anything he says or is willing to defer to it and really doesn't care if they disagree it's not GonNa Change how they feel about trump. So the pandemic is neutralized for a lot of the trump people and then you have racial resentment I've been looking at this very closely and I have for years the Bradley effect and the wilder effect in lots of other things. The loud white respondents on these polls are not telling the truth they're giving social desirable answers as frequently happens and the While I know you got your head on the head to head or do you think they're doing it on the issues of protests like well, I think on the protest but it it carries over to the election because trump is making it such an election issue and you know Biden is in a tough place. There he's got the overwhelming majority of black voters and other minorities, but mainly black voters. So he can't say things that affect them that upset them at the same time he's got to speak to the white constituency that voted for trump but is looking to biden as an alternative. That's a tough position to be in I'm not saying it's GonNa work for trump but I'm saying, let's keep an eye on it because it's happened before. Charlie What your how does trump which you're giving me the state path Trump wins reelection. What what's most viable in your mind that I think the only way would be precisely what happened last time another words he seeks out winds in Michigan Pennsylvania Wisconsin. He does it despite the fact that this time there really will be a democratic campaign in both Michigan and Wisconsin and central Pennsylvania But that if he were to win and I put it only about twenty percent chance. But if he were to win, it would be that he found enough. UNREGISTERED, a of non non college whites or whatever he found enough votes to offset. What whatever the difference what was created by Democrats really running a real campaign trying to get the vote out Detroit Milwaukee and Ann Arbor and Lansing and Madison. That he was able to get more than that in enough to stay just ahead. But I think that's to me the electoral vote. Wise. That's the path. Because I don't I don't buy this Minnesota stuff one bit. So as far as I'm concerned Biden is going to win all twenty of hillary states and DC, and that's when we start as Vision Wisconsin Pennsylvania Arizona Florida Georgia and then keep an eyeball out on Georgia I wo- in taxes. By the way, my favorite genre says a great saying when people say and I think there's a twenty percent chance the trump wins and he goes would you fly in an airplane that had an eighty percent chance of landing? Go and finish it. Arrived there is and I heard one of my colleagues Amy Walter was talking to a pollster recently. I A democratic pollster and she said finally asked him in okay. What was your? What? Your bottom line? What do you think and he said twenty percent chance that. President trump wins the electoral college. Forty percent chance that Biden wins the electoral college narrowly. And forty percent chance that the electoral that Biden winslet vote by a really big margin and The moment she said that it just resonated with me. You know what I think that's you know narrowly means Michigan. Wisconsin Pennsylvania possibly one more state but big margin would be sweeping all the big six and maybe you know maybe maybe not necessarily grabbing one of the next four but I I don't see I mean hell you know we were all wrong last time but I. To me the only things that resemble two, thousand, sixteen in this election is number one it's a US presidential election number to Donald Trump's Republican is Republican. Republican nominee in both and three boats years again with a two and other than that I don't think there's anything like I mean come but races and non income at races. Presidential elections are just like apples and oranges. Fully, different, and then the the other line that somebody gave to me and I can't remember who said it. But I thought it was a good line too which is if you believe trump trump bake at the inside straight, he did it once just remember Jesus walked on water wants. Give you. See Him do it a second thought. Larry. I I was actually going to pose the question it it A. Charlie broke it down clearly sort of has at pollster views it as sort of there's a two to one chance that Biden hits like a three, fifty plus night or three thirty. I look at the Obama levels right somewhere in the mid three mid low to mid three hundred's on electoral. College. The likelihood that he's north of that versus trump winning like what is a greater chance that Biden gets north of Obama's numbers or that trump wins in your actually I think it's pretty close the odds are pretty close on those two things were winning. You remember that trump got three hundred, six electoral votes that means he can burn some now he's not GonNa Win Michigan. Wisconsin let's wait and see Pennsylvania your pulsa chest it's over other bowls had much closer Susquehanna was close last time did a good job and they had very close look. It's early September but he's got a that is trump has electoral votes to to burn. And so I can see Biden picking up states that Clinton didn't get but being around to seventy maybe a narrow win and Arrow loss much more likely to be a narrow win. A big win is possible if trump is trump does lots of controversial obnoxious things within shouting distance of the election and the chances of that are always good. Look at his record. It is interesting when you look at trump's path though. And I know you believe it or not earlier this week, the trump campaign started to outline. We got to pass without Florida. Charlie Cook. Basically, their theory is, Oh, we'll just will hold everything else but loose Florida and Arizona. And you're like. Okay. But what electric? What what election is that? Right, is that election that the? Older voters in Florida are going to go biden but older voters in. Pennsylvania are GONNA go trump. Right, that is a hard one to fully compute is. It is. You know I keep looking back. We were seventy eight thousand votes away from Hillary Wins we expected that, but it was a little closer we expected. And that's like an eyelash I mean when you're talking two tenths of a point. In Michigan and seven tenths of a point in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and I've leave you and I. We all three was look at enormous amounts of data and we believe in data but down to my marrow. I believe that. You had a whole bunch that trump people in two, thousand, sixteen, they they wanted they were so for him they were. So Against Hillary, they were passionate all of that great intensity and on the Clinton side for the most part, there was an a lot of ambivalence who are a lot of people that really didn't WanNa vote for her but they were never going to vote for Donald Trump but I think. They were prepared to hold their noses and vote for her and then in the last month particularly after Billy Bush access Hollywood there was no way. Trump could win. There was no way she could lose anybody that did not enthusiastically want Hillary Clinton to be president got a pass and they didn't have to vote and by God I think a lot of didn't and yet they all power three on January twenty first. Ninety, two, thousand, two, thousand, seventeen to demonstrate you I wanted the DC police to like go make people produce I, vote I voted stickers and say, okay if you could produce sticker, stay on here, knock yourself out. But if you don't have one, get the hell off the street, let's when a shift to the Senate here I think the Senate in the presidential are going to go the same direction. It just feels there's too many overlaps in it appears. To many battleground states that said Where do you see the battle for the Senate now have? Republicans feel better this week than they have in a while at least about holding they don't talk about gaining but just about holding. Well, they'd be very lucky to hold fifty three seats given what's up in the way things have been going I agree with you that there's a high probability that the presidency and the Senate will go in the same direction you can strain and find paths where they won't align but by and large you know again, it depends on your view of how this racist GonNa, go up if it's Biden blowout than I, think Democrats reasonably can expect to get fifty two seats fifty, three I. Don't believe you know some people are pushing fifty six get real you know come back to Earth. But. If it's even vaguely competitive. Let's say Biden winning by three or four or trump a winning the electoral college and keeping it to two or whatever turns out to be. Then you could see Republicans retaining fifty, one, fifty two. If you run the probabilities right now underlying right now it comes out about fifty fifty that's the probability and that means the presidential winner control. Senate to after they abolish the filibuster which they will you know in my mind the over and his four seats foresee game for Democrats I think the Arthur being more than four or about the same as it being three or less. Go through the racist. So I assume Kelly Gardner are in Jones feel as if all three are in the same place, the incumbents, all trail. Right Alabama Colorado Arizona and they all trail on unlikely barring some Shane something has to change in that campaign for the trajectory to change that. Fair. Yes, yeah I think. Yeah. So then that takes us to the next level of competitive, which feels as if it's worth Carolina. Georgia ac not the not the not the jungle primary, the the the the Georgia perdue yet. Georgia. Purdue. North Carolina, Georgia Purdue Iowa, Maine Montana they all to me the elect they're all in the same spot. Nobody's got a lead more than two or three points. Is that where it of those places who would you rather be? Charlie all start with well yeah. I I put Susan Collins in Maine and. Topped and and. Joni aren't Ston Iowa I put them closer to the edge then I would do. Her do or. Why would put till? Tillis Tillis Collins and Ernst I put Danes when notchback mean he's just gotTa get so many ticket-splitter littered that I make a little bit of a distinction there. But I I think collins aren't stint and until Tillis. Tell us as the most endangered of those three. Followed by. Collins then aren't linear them in your near Bath in Democrats have to win two of those three probably to win the majority. Yup Yup, Yup Larry where are you in these That's about where I am I. Think Maine Iowa North, Carolina are tossups obviously Montana is. It's too too big. A afford to stream a too big stream to Ford is going to be very difficult for bullock to to win that. But North Carolina depends on the presidential race. I think they will end up coinciding toward the end Iowa same way, and given the margin by which trump wanted for years ago you'd have to give the edge to to trump in Iowa and if you do. Then you have to ask who are the voters who will vote for trump who won't vote for arts main is very different because that's very likely to go for Biden by more than it went for Clinton and Susan Collins eventually your number comes up she's done a great job of managing to bridge the gap between the two parties but I think her numbers coming up. That's my guess. Stuff you know four terms is pretty impressive that she's one. It's tough to get into that fit with term fifth term column there. You know it's interesting Larry. Just pointed out about Iowa Charlie I saw some numbers yesterday. interesting. So I'm going to give you these comparisons. Trump has a bigger lead in Montana endanger does but. Are. urged has the bigger lead in Iowa than trump thus discuss. Well. I think it is very hard to find a farmer. You know someone in rural America, alight in rural. America. That voted for president trump last time and overwhelmingly they did and doesn't support him this time but they do exist and You know we're talking about Maine I've spent a lot of time this summer in Maine and it's Kinda lobstermen it out. There industry's been devastated but by God, they're holding with most are holding with him, but it doesn't take many of them to to defect just a small bit. With the increasing centralization growing suburbs around demoing, for example, it doesn't take that many to make a difference. And I think that you know that maybe Ernst might be able to have a little bit more separation. From President, trump than some others, but you know in Maine though. There is a feeling people you had a lot of people, Democrats and independents who were very proud about supporting. Susan Collins all these years. It was their sign that they're not just some partisan tool or something there sign of bipartisanship of independence, but after Cavanaugh. Tax Cuts in impeachment or they feel angry bitter betrayed. The I would say there are more goodbye Susan bumper stickers in Maine than any other political bumper sticker about that. That is that is fascinating Larry I wanNA close our conversation with this you are you are you were in Virginia you've been you've been in Virginia was a red state. You saw it become a purple state. You would argue for years that it's a much a swing state it just isn't swing presidential and Lo and behold it became a swing and presidential for like a day and then it moved moved out. What's been interesting how many states have followed the the Virginia model, which is The suburbs all of a sudden go away from the Republicans and the state dramatically changes and there's this. Saw It in. Colorado. Who saw we're seeing it near Zona and I lied, I'm leading you this way to say. Of Georgia and Texas, which one is is next to sort of experience which you saw happen nationally to the Virginia vote. Georgia I I'm a little skeptical of Texas always have been probably always will be your confusing neon colors because I'm colorblind but generally speaking I'm kidding generally speaking. The trump presidency we don't often focus on this. The trump presidency unlike most presidencies is going to have a long term hang over. For Republicans in suburbs and a lot of other places, maybe not rural areas but suburbs and in central cities, and that is going to be a major problem going forward for the Republicans but it gives Democrats opportunities to finally convert to to get that last stage of conversion that they need in Georgia and Texas. and. Some other states that are on the edge North Carolina's still on the edge. I have some of its argued to me that they would believe has a better shot at Georgia and Florida, and they're saying they're you know more likely states go the same way But it was an interesting an interesting. That someone was offer or take it. But it goes to first of all goes to the Latino problem that facing South Florida. But. Also, the increased this how NASA the suburbs ours like Morocco I you see a shift like that and you can chain campus. Chuck Has Floridian. How has this Puerto Rican? Migration to the Orlando area. Was that overstated how overstated I think what people forget the I four corridor is not swing anymore. But what happened is Republicans especially, trump trump. Trump vote. One of the weird things about sixteen. We didn't Florida turnout was up while the while turn out in the Midwestern states were down. Trump just made voters I mean I joke if the if the county didn't touch salt water. It voted for trump and way theme. You know what? The Orange County success exceptions on the IPHONE quarter? No. The I four corridor is not as swing. Is it used to be I? Mean you realize Hillary Clinton carried all all the counties we used to say you had to carry to win floor shared all. In the apple quarter. But the that that's not the way anymore, and in fact, you know what is interesting is trump ran up ran the score places like Pasco County. which is sort of like you know it's it's sort of stuck in the middle of central Florida will but it is. That's where they ran up the score and that's where he is. You know the other thing is. Trump in the same way that Biden has campaigned basically in one state for nine months. Pennsylvania trump has campaigned in one state for four years. For. So I do both of those things matter here. Well, thanks for turning to the table. This was a lot of fun. This is what I would strongly. Very Avenue Charlie Cook we get to do this again, one more than for the election voice sounds good to. Charlie. I also had a special third guest here, a bird that was literally tweeting as we none of us are big tweezers anymore but I literally word tweeting I'm recording outside to in my outside home studio because my indoor spaces are taken up by classrooms. I I was wondering who's bird that was I couldn't imagine that. Charlie. Would would have a bird to take care of it well, surely. Out. A gentleman had a pet bird. Thanks guys. I'm GONNA pause there. We'll be right back with a quick break. Maria Theresa. Kumar you're listening to the Chuck Todd asked from meet the press. Hey, it's Chris as this week podcast wise is happening. I'll be talking with Tony Basilica about what it's like to run a restaurant during the corona virus. My sense is given what kind of energy I'm getting from the veterans in the industry who I do know and how worried they are about things by senses that they're extraordinarily worried the situation that these loans have put us in. It's given us a little bit of a lifeline, but it's Kinda. Put us in a strange position where. We're kind of like sort of acting like an unemployment office or maybe employment officers. It's a very weird position to be in in I. Think it's very dangerous position to be in because I don't think it's very easy for most of us who are trying to run restaurants to like focus on what's GonNa really help this thing survive I just WanNa, make sure that people have incomes. That's this week on wise is happening search for why is this happening wherever you're listening right now and subscribe Hey Guys Willie geist here this week on the Sunday sit down podcast. I get together with Grammy Winner Mary J. Blige to talk about her new venture into the world of wine and a look back at her groundbreaking career. Get our conversation. Now for free wherever you download your podcasts, I'm joined now by Voto Latino CEO Maria Theresa Qamar to discuss why Biden is under performing with Latinos in my home state but excels with them in states like Arizona and perhaps Texas. Where Theresa Welcome back to the todd cast. Things. So it was it's interesting and and look. And I've had this conversation. Different ways in different times the Florida Latino voter. First of all, there isn't a Solo Florida Latino voter there is. Different. There's different aspects of of issues that animate certain communities in in Florida in. Obviously we know that the foreign policies. Of Venezuela and Cuba, have have an outsized impact. And I guess the question is this. When you saw the was interesting I thought about our poll metairie was the reaction it was. In. It was sort of expected. You know this has been something that's been whispered about point by kind of has this Latino issue for there's a lack of enthusiasm it's been whispered in whispered and let's all of a sudden. The Florida poll was the bullhorn is that a is that a fair way to look at it? I think I'll share with you voted Latino. We have a C. three arm where we do our voter registration and we beefed up our C. forearm to deliver Article Work Chuck and we endorsed. Biden for the very first time we'd never endorsed a presidential candidate endorsed for the very first time in April because we had been scenes from legs and we had been seeing that there was serious concern with Latinos in in Texas am sorry in both Pennsylvania and in Florida and we made it very vocal of why we were endorsing because we believe. Mine is the right person for the job, but also was a way for us to kind of sound the alarm within Latino community that things are not well for them under this administration long story short I think the biggest challenges that we saw that Latinos were. Not really paying wide paying attention to the election into weren't being spoken to. So that's one of the reasons why we we endorsed because we saw it as real critical. Opportunity to address the fact that Noah's talking community and it's been a challenge the campaign now seems to be paying attention I. Don't think they realized how deep seated it was and check if someone were to ask me will why are Latinos in Florida doing so well and voting you know aligned with trump I'd say that trump has never stopped his bill little campaigning in Florida. Since he took office and is not just trump but there are there's a congresswoman that's running right now against on chalet she parrots everything that trump says she beads on the messages of socialism. She beats on the messages of communism and says that the Democrats are Socialists and that's an let's not go back to Cuba and I deeply believe that the trump strategy is the Karl Rove strategy of the Bush administration when he was running for the White House for the first time. Trump recognizes that he doesn't need all the Latina voters. He doesn't need Auto African American voters. He just needs to skim off the top and he's doing a great job of it. So. What would you explain it? Do you believe that the difference between Arizona and Florida here is simply The amplification issue you just mentioned in south Florida that there's a Republican Party apparatus that frankly. It's been it's been. On this topic basically for three straight years and that it's just a different type of Latino voters Zona and their Republican. Party they're just as alienated them for so long that you don't have the same connectivity. Exactly right I think that the difference between a Floridian let the and at Arizona Latino I would say is that the leadership? In. Florida is not kostic. To be a to community in the same way in Arizona, you had a whole generation that grew up under. Really Racist Anti. Latino. Leadership whether we're taught Martin your Pyeho or Stephen Peers at Jan brewer and you had a whole community that while they were not eligible to vote, they were aging into the voting age population at witnessing their families being mistreated in. So in Arizona, you have a young ovulation that started organizing. Really in twenty ten that finally can flex their muscle and are old enough to vote and build coalitions and Florida. You don't really have that There is almost a privilege of being let the a not being denigrated as a result when you live in Miami places like Miami Orlando and it is a different feel politically as well. You don't have people constantly racially profiling you or disparaging you. There's a different sensibility I would say in a Latino community because they don't feel like are under attack in Florida as they do in. Tech in Texas Arizona Nevada, Georgia Virginia, North Carolina Pennsylvania, and so in that the trump administration has recognized that to speak to a floridian. UTAH. Need talk about Communism Meeting to talk about small business you need to talk. About family values and because people feel unquote safe, they don't feel that they are under attack. They feel that they can make a be aligned more with a political party that fight freely doesn't like them I. If you look at what trump is trying to do, he has set up a denaturalization task force under the Department of Justice the when you talk about. Eliminating payroll taxes you're talking about defunding social security and the funding a medicare. Two big issues in Florida that the Democrats really should be talking about because that would scare the Bejesus the majority of Latino voters or is so many of them are naturalized in. So many of them do depend on Social Security and Medicare. Discuss this with the Biden campaign. In what I see, they have done a social security and the fact is was interesting is the social security message and the message sold voters is breaking through for Biden. What was amazing about our poll is the other way to look at the pole. Yes. So, if you're biding, you'd rather overperform with older white voters right now than any other demographic group in Florida and he is at least compared to four years ago he he's doing only one part of the message said. So security message, he's not doing this naturalization. Right Cheque's doing absolutely much better with older voters, but that's fine if he was doing as well among Latino voters in African American voters. But what trump did last time in the two thousand sixteen election with African American voters he siphoned off eight percent of right that that's that's big and if you continued again doing the Karl Rove strategy where you just chip away at different voters, it's going to be very big challenge because in Florida, you're going to need all the voters to it. He'll. Gallup show. To, meet twenty two governor's Race Ranger Gillam carry volcanic Jacksonville, something, Hillary, Clinton did. But he lost up but only one Miami by by a smaller margin than. By smaller version than hell. I. Mean It'd be last four, hundred, thirteen thousand votes almost a by about the fame. Jeff. Walk Up to Florida where just that one percent skim off the top can make the difference between winning and losing stay. Exactly. Right. In I wonder if they should be making not just specimen, Florida Florida's possibly hard to to get I think for the Democrats but it's might I would encourage them to look at other opportunities in check. You know what to say I encourage them to look at Texas Tech How would you agree? With all the money you've spent in Florida at this point. Right, at this stage of the game, I, hear you on Texas long-term but at this stage of the game were spend your money. I'll share with you. We are right now registered. Registered voter in Texas. It's twenty one dollars for us to register Texan. It's six. Is it. Because this same. Atmosphere in Kostic anxiety that Latinos faced in Virginia. In Nevada in Colorado in Arizona and California way back in the way under people send. The those that same perfect environment along with meeting a new youth that is aging into the population is happening in Texas. You have two point five, million unregistered Latino Youth. Five hundred thousand of them who heard a president call their families in loved ones, rapists and criminals who also are witnessing s before that was signed into law by by Abbott that basically allows any official to question a school aged child with her American the stuff is happening in Texas is much more akin to what? Folks in Arizona felt under sp one, seventy, one eighty-seven than what we saw than what Floridians are feeling right now, there's a different type of anxiety that is really happening in Texas. Is Again, more akin to the other states that swung bending floored. Case it's a compelling case vital question is. Do you see Biden campaign doesn't have a money issue. Do Do they know their problem? Do they have the ability to address it? I think they're starting to bring in the right people and having these conversations. The challenge is that the game is not one on the traditional airwaves we're used to. It's it's one in the nooks and crannies of the Internet. It's one in the Nixon crannies of peer to peer what's up conversations, and they need to get up to speed to that because that is where people are sharing information. That is where people are using each other validations, eaters of information whether it's right or wrong, and the people that you're going to swing are paying attention by the influencers of their network online versus. The traditional Spanish language medium. Well, we shall see like I. Said I'm guessing Florida Bowl served as a interesting alarm lot Fox. Sports Talk? and. Theresa Kamara CEO Voter Latino. Excuse. Thanks. You've been listening to the Chuck Todd cast from meet the press. Today's episode was produced by Justice Screen and met Rivera John Research check producer Steve. Look. 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