Tuesday 8 January

Automatic TRANSCRIPT

You're listening to Midori house. First broadcast on the eighth of January two thousand nineteen on monocle twenty four. Hello and welcome to Midori house coming to you live from studio one here in London. I'm Juliette foster and on today's show the North Korean leader, Kim Yong on is in China, fueling speculation. His visit is paving the way for a summit with America's Donald Trump. Ukraine's recently formed off the docks church has split from Russia deepening political tension between Moscow and Kiev, my guess is Bill Hilton and James waters will be discussing these and the day's other top stories, including Germany says a haunt border in Ireland is unacceptable to the European Union. How will that help Britain's to resume get her Brexit deal through parliament, plus forty winks on the job? Why are Japan's bosses encouraging this stuff to take a nap at work? That's ought to come on Midori house with me Juliette foster. Welcome to Midori house, Mike guess today on Isabel Hilton. And James Rogers is a Bill is the editor of China dialogue and James is a lecturer in international journalism studies at City University. He's also a former BBC Moscow correspondence over a warm. Welcome to both of you. Now, North Korea's leader Kim Yong on is in China, fueling speculation. His visit could be the precursor to a summit with the US President Donald Trump will the two men met for the first time last year after months of threats and name calling which ratcheted up tensions between the two countries. However, the momentum that followed the historic talks now pets have stalled with neither side giving an inch on their stated positions, Washington months. Pian young to give up his nuclear weapons of Mr Kim has called for the lifting of sanctions against his country. So could ascend summit yield a breakthrough or are you being unduly optimistic that opening gambit coast to you is about? Well, gosh. I mean, what the problem with the second summit is that so much was given away in the first one that is quite hard to see how substantial progress has is is going to be made. Because essentially Donald Trump lifted the pressure on on Kim. And now we're back at at a kind of difficult bargaining which has been the situation for in fifty years. So we have. Kim being us to give up his nuclear weapons, which he won't do because he doesn't have any security guarantee. So he's saying well, all right. But it has to be a phased withdrawal, including the complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, which the Chinese want. That's because they want the Americans off the Crean peninsula, which is going to alarm the South Koreans, and please the North Koreans and the Americans are unlikely to greet. So here we are again, we're actually down to the real problems with North Korea with all the kind of frozen fluff shouting got rid of in the first round. I guess, but the problem is that the concession that. Donald Trump gave to Kim was first of all face to face meeting with the US president, which has elevators international stoning, no end. And Secondly, he kind of blew a hole and sanctions because once he announced that you know, he was in love with with Kim Jong alone. And that it was all fine, and he'd solved the problem. Why should anyone respect sanctions in? Now, the Chinese and the Russians are asking for them, formerly to be lifted at the UN. Meanwhile, the leakage which has rented them less effective than they might be. We'll continue through China. But essentially James nothing has really changed. So what is the point of this summit apart from them as a vetting Mr Kim, perhaps even further extending that international profile where I think that's the risk. I think the international profile is a very important point because both leaders here. I mean, Donald Trump did not come into office having and the notable expertise backgrounds and international furs, and this has been a very very big policy gamble. A lot of people would say for both leaders. It's his been one which has been very very high profile on the international stage, but which is also very important for domestic considerations too. And that's why of course, as a lot of commonplace appointed out conjunction got a big boost domestically from being taken seriously from by the Americans to the extent. Having a face to face meeting with the President Donald Trump to those saying look how can solve this part of his sort of images dealmaker. But in fact, you knows Isabel has pointed out, very persuasively. There are lots of substantial issues which need a lot of behind the scenes work before before leaders can wall Salang and sign Dalen is no sign really of substantial shifts on those full. Not least for the reason. What does denuclearization the peninsula mean? So and so it's difficult. And, but of course, you know, lots of this is done for show. And if if some substance emerges from his show, then I suppose, it's welcome. But it's difficult to see what substantial progress can be made just at the moment intense of when this summit is likely to take place. No confirmation no date has yet been given. But getting the difficulties that, Mr. Trump has at home will that incentivize perhaps to to push for something to happen? Very quickly in terms of that meeting because we know that he's the master of smoke and mirrors, and if you can do anything to deflect attention from the parameters or semi paralysis of his government. Plus, these these these fights he's. Poised to have with them a largely democrat led a house of representatives. Could we actually see this happening before the summer? Well, those those problems were certainly only pileup I think until he gets government back to work. I not sure how good it would look because you know, the this suspension of government in the United States is pretty serious thing. And and it's not usually left to linger. A he said that he won't put government back to work until the Democrats agreed to fund the wall. The Democrats unlikely to do to to agree to that. So he's created a crisis. I think to go off on a summit to note to note Greer was there is no government at home wouldn't be great. It wouldn't be great. But you couldn't put it past him to do it because he he's gone in on the ticket that I'm going to upend conventionally. Well, certainly his judgment is is is is less than perfect. But I think on this in this case, it would be difficult. I think that that certainly it if government were back to work he seems to want to summit because. He does want. He he wants something to announce parade or take a picture of. And so before the summer would be would be good. But then conversely, Mr. Trump's problems at home in the appearance that he may will be on the back foot domestically. She'll resign his something which which Kim canoes during the summit to leverage it in some way to gain concessions from the Americans James will possibly which is which again, you know, raise the questions to whether Mr. Trump is actually likely to engage this extent, he's not I don't think he's likely to agree to some unless he's at least to say something, you know, this seems significant might be ill advice have another photo op in front of a possible holiday resort. I'm thinking more in terms of let's assume, for example, the crisis at home with government is resolved. You've still got the upcoming molar investigation at cetera. We don't know what moolah has found though, this plenty of speculation amount that he's also dealing with a democratic led house of representatives. So fa Kim. This is great. Surely these these extra levers that perhaps he can pull well, potentially. But says difficult to see what substantial concessions we can get further is one of those problems. I think you know, from the rest of us who aren't exactly parties, those were swollen exactly partial this. It's a sense of relief that there is talk going on to that talk is not at the moment of who's missiles are bigger more powerful and who's going to strike, I at least rhetoric has gone away as I say for two leaders for whom rhetoric complained to the media so much important part of the way, they choose to execute their officers, but it's difficult to see what substantial progress can be made. And so I suppose in that sense. The the the visit by the North Korean leader to China make. Begin to pave the way for that. This. There's some really serious diplomacy needs to be done here. Not just photo ops of two people standing on the beach again, we've done that. Absolutely. And of course, it's it's it's interesting that he's chosen China. Given China's symbolism as a very important ally of North Korea. But conversely is will could China perhaps use that relationship with North Korea to rest some concessions from Mr. Trump eighth and win? This summit. Does actually go ahead. Well, of course, at the beginning of the week, we had the next round of of of China trade talks, China US trade talks, which are mid level talks at the moment. But but that is the big and difficult dispute now China hasn't had many favors from the United States so far, but this is an issue, which can hardly be done without China. And I think that you know, if I were Xi Jinping, I would be looking to to exert my influence in this dispute as a kind of useful. Enter in in the trade talks in which the US certainly holds more cards than China to China's, you know, the third leg of this particular stool, and and not to be not to be underestimated. And what about South Korea James because the South Korea, obviously wants talks between the northbound the Americans. It's it's caught in the middle. So what leverage if any ejects this is not just over Kim himself, but also with United States given that Donald Trump does have a rather oil personality. I assume from from where South Korea's looking on. They're just hoping United States is going to make sure that they remain solid allies on the peninsula and any rapprochement between any sort of relationship building between Washington. John Young will not be the expense of South Korea security. Okay. Then what move on to another of the world, but this time in eastern Europe. Now, you cranes recently formed orthodox church has been granted its independence mocking historic split from the Russian church. Now, most go has reacted furiously to the move which has deepened a split in the worldwide off the docks church wants to what's taking Ukraine's churches out of Russia's authority. Now, the dry foreign independent church in Ukraine intensified in two thousand fourteen that's when Russia annexed Crimea and also backed separatists who seized Ukrainian territory in the countries east now James did Russia's annexation of Crimea, make an independent Ukrainian church and inevitability because this is something which has been going on for some time. So you could argue I guess to what happened in Crimea was the accelerate our finger certainly made it more likely because after that no Ukraine's entire post-soviet history has been a story to a large extensive where is going to position itself internationally for countries tragedy is that sits between eastern western could potentially have been a very lucrative business and diplomatic bridge between them, but it hasn't turned out that way, of course. But I think we if we look at the way this process has moved particularly since the autumn when it was first agreed by the achey, medical patriarch in stem bullet Ukraine could have it soon church. It's become a very very political process. The cranium president petro Pora Shankar went to stumble for the ceremony over the weekend. Christmas as well. And he was in church in Kiev yesterday. Whether declaration was on display, the the actual tax the declaration was on display. He was in church there again talking about the significance of it. And it has been very much. This is a way in which you crane tick units. Current government can break more ties with Russia ties which lasted for centuries. But I think they've got a more recent significance to it is this if you consider that for most of the last century Botha part of the Soviet Union both were officially a fierce. It was very very difficult to be religious them. The church did enjoy brief periods of tolerance. During the second war, for example, installing used it's charter Marshall morale to to fight Nazi Germany, but since the end of the Soviet Union both in Russia and Ukraine. Resurgence of religion has been a very very important part of that post comments. And so in a sense religion, the two countries it's very important spiritually of for those people who practice it. But it's also tremendously important, politically and culturally. Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew. He is the head of global off the dogs church. He signed those documents in Turkey. I understand that you met him. So from your knowledge of the man sure he would have known that his action would be seen as political even if he himself signed the this paper for very, genuine, spiritual reasons, I am very interested in in this this move by. He's actually I among equals. So he's not, you know, the undisputed it's not like the poopers it were. But you know, he hoped an office which goes back to buy Sancha. It's an extraordinary survival from from the Roman empire. But but he he's very constrained figure in his own, right? Because he is the patriarch of an orthodox Christian church in Turkey's. It's it has to be located in Constantinople as it were and the Turks are not terribly friendly towards it. So they insist that the office holder has to be a born in Turkey and the pool from which this offers. Can be recruited of of Christians. Turkish born Christians is is rather small. He's chronically underfunded also, and and he for many years was looking for road. So the reason I mentioned was that for years he was involved in a series of symposia which were to do with the health of the Black Sea. Or you know, they Rick logical symposia which would were organized by very energetic Greek lady with the support of Greek shipping tycoons than we would go on these extrordinary voyages with the patriarch and talk about ecology religion and the state of of health, but but the reason one of the reasons he wanted to do that was it. It's not at all of us that he has a role or the ability to kind of play a global role. This is suddenly catapulted into everyone's consciousness. I think if you stop people on the street and say, do you know about boss Oldham you'd you'd have had blank? Looks. And now, clearly he's he's played this important role. I think the risk for him might be that that if the Russians have really fed up, but this they could ask the Turks to exert a little more pressure on him. And he's already as I say quite constraint. Some interesting point because look the Russians are furious about this because this church has now fallen out of their authorities. So one lever removed over seven I'm going to sit down and take this benignly. So some sort of plotting may well be going on James what is it? What direction could they take it? I mean during his marathon news conference just before the end of last month. President Putin who suggested that the property disputes which imagined would result from this move on presumably there will be such perfidy disputes over those parts of the church and Ukraine, which wished to remain loyal to Moscow. And those which dones who owns what part of of church property, and so on Mr Putin did warn during that news conference that he also suggested it could become bloody. That won't be Americans about this as well. Because I think Mr. Pompeo. Pompeii over of discussing this with with president Persian who they do see it very much in political terms. I mean, I think as I say it's very important to to to think how important this is to Russia. Mr Putin's career was began in the service of the state now, he's very not very very keen to observe as many orthodox rituals. Can it's always reported when he goes to church on the author's Christmas or Easter last year, you may remember to partner piffle ceremony which involves cutting through the ice at the time of the Russian winter, there's sometimes that minus thirty but the faithful go and. Into hoes. Mr Putin was filmed during that shown on national TV, so very very very important and part of this in tow to say for Ukraine to say winner part of this anymore. It's significant snub to Russia particularly into. Let's take a little bit further because I guess there is the few that Russia. Also, proceeds an independent Ukrainian church is part of a much wider strategy on the part of Ukraine to build stronger links with western organizations like for example, NATO and indeed we round that particular. Doesn't doesn't really provoke a warm response from Russia? So, you know, the game with Ukraine says being you know, how far can you go without without Russia? Really responding. I think this is in this particular move. It is also gives you crane a more profound sense of identity. You know, if if a country has its own church its own and takes ownership, it spiritual traditions, obviously annoyed Russia because I mean, Russia sees everything in terms of power, but it's not an aggressive move. It's not a move that damages anybody. But you know, the the whole question of how far Ukraine can go remains can touch tone of of of Russian Russian interest in retaining its power. But I guess from the Russian perspective there is that concern role than fear that okay Petrie shaneco owned his friends. They've been instrumental certainly. Hoped to push things in terms of the church. So what else is next on not hit list? How much further are they prepared to go? What's the next viable talk? James? I in an idea whether many in Ukraine who would very happily join the European Union and NATO in the last five years of my unforeseeable in in the next five years, if one consider outlines Russian strategies from starting the war in Georgia in two thousand eight it has been to draw very very very firm red line of the further eastward expansion of NATO from Russia's points view. They're very definitely succeeded in that it's but others in Ukraine who c- own oversee this move of itself is a pro Westwood move. But it certainly in a way from Russia move. And so in that sense of falls into the same camp, but Ukraine oversleep still lost. You know, he's lost Ukraine to Russia. Very difficult to see whatever sanctions western protests are in practice. How that's going to be reversed in the future and Ukrainian membership of NATO's is clearly off the cards for the time being. But this is a way as Mr. Pershing himself said of coming away further from Russia's influence what I'd like to get from both of you in the time on this subject is. We understand the political optics from the point of view of may Putin, but is not shed by ordinary Russians on the streets. Do they also see it in in those terms, or are they more likely to go towards look this is a tragedy because we have an orthodox church and now we have another schism, and okay, we're not quite in the same league. As the Great Schism of the Catholic church between the church in Romans. I think it's been mentioned. But I mean, how how don't Russian see it as a huge spiritual tragedy for the for the orthodox church. Nothing. Russians, a lots of new Russia's will definitely say it is matter of regret because a lot of them do very keenly. They are I think lots of people in Russia feel very sad about the state's relations with Ukraine, but they would they would also blame that on the cranium government Rodman the Ukrainian people, I think a lot of Russians would make that distinction. But I think and I think too they they believe, you know, they're sort of people who've got very strong ties of history. You know, there's a lot of people in Russia with Ukrainian names, lots of people of Ukrainian descent, lots of people in Ukraine, speak Russians. I think people will see that this is you know, this is a cause for gret. And I think an clearly it's not going to to help the future relations. You know, whenever these two countries will move towards something more like normal relations. Yes. Subject. I think that we will be returned to in the course of the year. But you're listening to Madari house here with me Juliette foster, and my guess is a Bill Hilton and James Rodgers now coming up next Germany's says the EU doesn't want a haunt border in Arlon does that mean for two reasons bid to get her. Brexit withdrawal Bill through Britain's parliament. Perspective, some fresh ideas. Direct your door on business culture and design not to mention fashion travel and much more subscribed today and join the world of Monaco as a valued subscriber. You get a ten percent discount in all monocle shops. And our online store, you'll be the first receive exclusive invitations to our events and how full access to the magazine archives. In addition all one year. Subscriptions come with a free limited edition, monocle tote back with full bespoke subscription packages to choose from you decide what suits you and Joe lives down best. What are you waiting for? Visit monocle dot com. And subscribe today. Still with me is Bill Hilton and James Rojas hair. Midori house know, Germany says it stands in quote full solidarity with Arlen over the Irish backstop saying a haunt border would be unacceptable to the European Union. Germany's foreign minister high comas made his remarks during a meeting with the Irish deputy prime minister, Simon Coveney who said that Westminster MP's planning to vote against to raise malls withdraw Bill will guilty of in his words wishful thinking as the EU would not reopen Brexit negotiations. Mrs may is battling to persuade MP's to support her Bill, which they will vote on this month questions. Both of you really, do you think that these remarks have helped or hinders? I suspect she wishes that she had a role of celebrate seal some lips together, but it's too late. Now, also hindered not he meant them to be helpful. Because there is a continuing fantasy not not only in the conservative party. But actually in the labor party that there is a better deal communica, she aided. And this is you know, this is a poor deal. This is a poor deal. Because leaving the European Union is a poor idea. And it has a lot of difficult problems on which other people have interest, and and rather firm views, and this has not changed. No matter how how long these headless chickens run around in circles, wishing it we're otherwise it isn't going to change its fascinating. Because journalistically we've managed to keep away from Christopher from Brexit for the Christmas vacation two weeks way. We all now back in nothing's changed. And that's the point because nothing has changed. Because MRs may we know she spoke to some of you count parts. Christmas, reassurances, etc. But you do have to ask yourself. What reassurances can they give her since last month? They said look we've just rated the Cup of bed. There's nothing left on the shelves. Coach original questions know will this help Hindu think whatever you believe your beliefs will be reinforced by what's been the people who think leaving the us about see I told you about our day and the people in leaving is a good idea. We'll say say look, this is just out, of course trouble. And I think nobody will be sort of swayed either way. So, but as you know, what can help MRs studies, it's really very difficult to say. I mean, one is reminded the votes in parliament having been postponed with a course, you know, the tacit and very strong implication being wouldn't have passed that stays very difficult to see what has changed since. Then that will make it past next week. I mean, it's rather reminded of conversation conversational teenage daughter yesterday around what trousers fashionable. Not really. Once something gets about nine. It's it's once something gets bad reputation. Nobody's gonna vote for and I think this is really this deals go to political reputation. Both neither remains nor leaves satisfied by it. And it's only this thought that you know, the really is no alternative and trim. The at least a short-term media longer term consequences for the country will be something between battling catastrophic may focus minds. And I suppose that's Mrs Maes early hopefully states. There's nothing to suggest anything has changed since she didn't put this deal to parliament last month to see what what game she's playing. But it it seems to me that as you watch this. This this chaos deepen that we might be coming to point where the choices crashing out of stain nothing in between is is is deliverable. And and so that at least would be a resolution, I would prefer one side of that very strongly. But I mean, the we we just gave rise. And circles the having said that Simon company he he did actually open the door very slightly because he said the Irish Republic wouldn't block attempts by the UK to extend article fifty which would delay the exit process. But the question is even if Arlen is willing to be magnanimous on Matt will the rest of the U necessarily. That's not problem. I think they would be very happy to spawn to suspend article fifty because nobody nobody loses. I mean the question is would time bought by that. And I think it's going to have to happen anyway. But with the time bought by that producer resolution. Rehashing old territory. So you get the same result. Whether they would, but, but at least it would it would mean that that the hard Brexit is couldn't use the March thirtieth deadline excuse for saying it's all over we're leaving now, regardless of of the lorries, and the, you know, all the stuff that we're talking about. So so I personally think that's going to happen regardless. Opinion this country both in parliament and outside which does actually welcome that in and the school of thought which says well, it will be short term hardship. But after that, we'll be back to. So it's gonna be worth it for the short term. It's not necessarily of you shed extent by the majority of people in this country. But it is view. That's how I think there are some people who would welcome to just want to go over the line. And then they'll take it from that. So any delay? Any stench of article fifty would be bad news for them. Okay. Then let's move onto. I final subject because Japan's workers on not getting enough. Sleep amount is official Expos claim that a lack of sleep is costing the economy one hundred thirty eight billion dollars a year. I'm bosses are. Now, so worried that many are taking unusual steps to address the problem. Some companies have special sleep rooms were exhausted work has nap won't couches while others are encouraging stall to avoid doing overtime. So they can get a reasonable hour. I mean, I I had to confess I burst out laughing when I read some of this. But I mean, I is the tip of the iceberg in terms of the incentives that are being offered, but also quite worrying in some respects that you're working people so Hawes that they're coming to work absolutely exhausted. And then you're trying to buy them off by saying you can sleep at your debts. Go whatever and owned, by the way, his voucher more sleep. You get the more vouchers. You get these the food when they said that they were telling workers that they had to leave by nine pm. No, don't see any later than that. Yeah. Maybe there is another approach Mosul. Intrigued by how you quantify, you know, the cost of oversleep listeners at one hundred thirty eight billion dollars a year. Yeah. How do you do that? But you know. Right. You're right. I mean, how how do they how do they do it? But let me is that in this country. We talk about striking the work life balance its non-existence in Japan from what from what these these findings reveal troop sleeplessness is is actually rather fashionable topic at the moment. And and I would have thought Japan had numerous bigger problem. Given the disco to very rapidly ageing population over the recent research that lack of sleep can accelerate Alzheimer's because they go to serious problem of the structure of they're the age structure of their populations. Have what they really want is their old people to sleep. This time of year. Of course, I remember eating piece of research can talk to a few years ago article about it would sign that. I'm you know, if you think life is easy now, you know, medieval peasant sexually slept in Europe slept a lot more than people do now. Because of course in the winter this time of year. No, artificial light. You went sleep rhythms. That's long gone. I mean since since the industrial age we were Waco somebody who's done shifts and doesn't miss them. It's it's not good. The cream represents. But actually sleep is also an issue in in terms of decision making you may remember that show boasted that she only slept for five hours. Which actually in terms of research would make pretty much all of her judgment suspect. I couldn't possibly comments on notes at brings us to the end of today's show Isabel Hilton and James Rojas. Thank you so much joining us here at majoria house and today's show was produced by Bill research by Ferdinand of gusto Pacheco, and mainly and mainly Evans and studio manager was Kenya. Scarlet more music coming up next than nineteen hundred dollars eights Monaco on design, and we'll have more on the day's main stories on the Monaco daily at twenty two hundred Madari house is back at the same time tomorrow that is eighteen hundred London time. I'm Juliette foster goodbye.

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