NFL Week 2 Monday Night Football: Lions vs Packers, Odds, Picks, & Predictions


That thou board with that right. I bet you twenty bucks can get. You can't look for the end of the year. Only fifteen grand. How they pay debts men his manny. It's the board podcast originally the end. I wanna be right back where i started. I could still pick winners. I can still make money for all kinds of people back home. And why mess up a good thing. Airs pain insider and todd. Welcome in to the the board podcast powered by fan duel. Sportsbook and nfl. Week to monday night football edition. I'm your host. Todd furman joined as always by my steam colleague and co host but now is the perfect time to remind you to go to fan duel dot com slash. Bet the board take advantage of all the generous sign up bonuses that fan duel has in store for you a couple of unique promotions to keep your eyes ongoing for all new users can risk five dollars win one hundred and fifty dollars no matter which side they pick and the jets broncos game this coming weekend and of course they special promotion a week from now for the monday night football showdown between the philadelphia. Eagles dallas pain second week essentially in the books. Were your first thoughts in terms of what we saw unfold. This was one of the more frustrating weeks. And i'm typically over games after they happen. But you know this this recap show here that you have me doing. I suddenly have to relive things monday morning. Post to be cathartic. This is supposed to be a safe space where you can vent you can get it off your chest and by the time we wrap things up. That's when you begin to move forward for the subsequent week i appreciate you making it linger an extra twenty four to forty eight hours team. Play saturday team planned guy team got saturday. We had to totals not get there in the first half but of course full game state under so you know you get those reverse results and if you flip on right. It's it's a winning week and then middle of last week. We took a position for sunday over. Twenty three and a half. First half and rams colts. That's why it got to twenty four. That did not go very well. Cold said two possessions where they have a first and goal from the one and then they got zero points. They're obviously and then another possession where they had second and goal from the three and got zero points there too so Of course over was a great bet despite the ridiculousness and then the full game proceeds to go over and then the one that our listeners know all too well about eagles plus three and a half for us they dominate the first half but they go into the break trailing and i watched that game pretty intently went back and watched this morning downloaded all our metrics and whatnot. They'll gain the forty niners by one hundred and seventy yards the first twenty six minutes of that game and you had the ticky tack call. Go against us on the jalen rieger touchdown. Did he step out of bounds. Was he pushed out clearly reestablished but they claiming on willingly went out of bounds. There and then you have the ninety four yard drive first and goal from the forty niners won you get zero points so you dominate that first half and the forty niners get the momentum score before break yay to say this todd. We've been doing this long enough. Where you kind of understand. The game might be over at that point even if the scoreboard says otherwise when you dominate and you should be up seventeen nothing but you mentally see the scoreboard seven three. Jesus it didn't feel like a four point game at halftime. Those spots are always interesting. I had one of our colleagues who you know. I know quite well. Send me a text. He couldn't get three and a half early on in the week in philadelphia so refrain from betting. Game shoots me a note at halftime and goes. Hey look. is this the opportunity. I need to try and get on. He had an opportunity. Bet philadelphian the money line at a reasonable price. Honestly i said you see the momentum score toback baking breaking drive ninety seven yards the forty niners cover and you might want to try and sit this one out because the exactly what you said you watch enough of these games you start to get the feel for game flow and go okay. That first half went poorly. But i feel like we have a punchers chance despite only being down seven three going into the break. I wasn't overly optimistic about what we're going to see in the final thirty minutes known. I was relatively happy with how the game was playing out. We kind of mentioned jonathan gannon coming up with a more sophisticated game. plan defensively. because that's kind of his mo one of kind of the the giant young stars up and coming as defensive mind loved what he did offensively. We said attack deep. The eagles did that a little bit better. Although i wasn't really in love with some of the stuff other than that right there is a lot of trickery. Pre snap which the forty niners probably aren't the team to do that against they see cal. Shanahan's offense all day at practice with all the window dressing trickery. Priests navin post nap didn't really attack the intermediate area of the forty niners defense. Which you know we knew corner was an issue. Moseley ended up getting downgraded to out. We saw d'arret go out with a knee injury last week. And so you're down your top two corners you call basically you know. Pull josh josh norman. Off the scrap heap thrown out there. And so you want to attack that aaron. It's great that they did it downfield but you also have to do it and intermediate area which the eagles did not do very well there. So very frustrating game from that standpoint because if you get up seventeen nothing there. It's like okay. We took the road trip one sunday night. Football on deck against aaron rodgers. Let's let's shift our focus there. It's always interesting. I mean in the nfl. I think i was taught. I first started in the industry. If you go back there are essentially three momentum place and nfl game and this is an over-simplification for those folks who want to visit me for saying this but you need to those three momentum plays to go your way when you have a dog or short home favourite and i really believe in that eagles forty niners game you know. All the momentum plays early went away the forty niners from the jalen. Rieger push out the forty niners. Who deserves full marks for bending but not breaking on the fourth and goal stand there and then of course the forty niners getting momentum scoreboard for the half that allows them to take a four point lead into the break and for all of our listeners. Out there we normally start monday with the good the bad and the ugly typically. We like to go in the optimistic and positive direction but pain since we've already started on a bit of a somber note relatively speaking. What else was disappointing to you. That you saw unfold over the weekend wasn't shocking in any way. But i thought the steelers offense just kind of proved to be what they are and it was a game against the raiders that i just wanted to stay off completely. Sharp money hit the steelers minus five role in the week. Got as high as six and a half some places sunday morning before. Joe haden endeavour bush got announced out around eleven eleven thirty am dipped back below that secondary. Key number t. J. watt then departs in the first half so pittsburgh was basically without a key cog at each level of their defense offensively. We knew there would be a trainwreck. This season you know you don't win. Many games in two thousand twenty one with less than two hundred fifty yards of offense was what the steelers had last week against buffalo. That's a great win right. You look like oh six and a half point dog on the road won outright easy peasy win expectancy was fantastic led by double digits but the offense was just freaking terrible last week and i don't know if there's going to be this massive fix right. Big ben came out in the post game pressure last week and said we're going to need to rely on her defense this season. It's not really what you want to hear from your quarterback. The offensive line isn't good. So the ground game stinks the past protections poor. Basically what you have if you're a steelers fan and you probably already know this because you've watched it for two seasons. You have a thirty nine year. Old big ben treating the ball like a hot potato with a quick release and he's dinking in dunking the ball down the field accurately into tight windows. Only tour has completed. Shorter throws into tighter windows than big ben through two games. The idea of high risk throws in areas that result in low rewards isn't really like this viable long term strategy on offense but it's really the only option pittsburgh has to this point and now it looks like the day johnson could be out a little bit with with this knee injury. Yeah i think all wait and see if it's an mc l. if it's an acl. no injury. Report official diagnosis there regarding deontay johnson status kind of additional salt in the wound and the final play of the game for those folks may have tuned off not only fantasy implications but of course the best receiver. The steelers have in that roster. You mentioned to pain. And i think a lot of people look. I know it was one of the worst decisions of the day. Buffalo goes down to your neck of the woods. wins thirty five nothing but mass in that dominant performance. The buffalo offense for me still appears to be operating fits and spurts less than five yards per play and josh allen. Nowhere near the quarterback. We saw the world on fire season ago. There's certainly a little little something going on there. No emmanuel sanders is one hundred percent healthy and there was this little lol in their offense after they got up fourteen. Nothing where they turn the ball over a couple of times. The dolphins still had a chance to kind of keep themselves in it and then once it was like fourteen nothing in buffalo is driving kind of flipped off that game. But you're right. It's the offense. Is there something not happening right now. That's that's for sure. The ground game appeared efficient in week. One they start the game with a single terry explosive. Run for a touchdown. So i do expect that offense to try to run the ball a little bit more but josh allens missing on some throws that he didn't miss last year and the offensive line still isn't the best and i think you're working your way in there with some receivers like you know manual sanders. That quite aren't up to speed yet. But you're right. The offense was not humming. Despite you know the points they put on the board. They went over their team. Total of twenty six and a half so they exceeded expectation on the scoreboard. There but down to down. It wasn't the most efficient thing that we've seen from buffalo's offense and i don't think by any stretch. It's a reason to panic with a young football team early on. We've seen it time and time again from super bowl contenders. You don't need to play your best. Football in september and buffalo like everyone else in the division now sits at one and one so for all those bills fans out there that are frustrated with what they've seen it's absolute nothing to be concerned about just yet through only two games. Joe borough pain. I watch that game against the chicago. Bears clearly not alone in responsibility for that. Twenty seventeen lossa. Those folks that grabbed the bengals plus three congrats on getting the best of the number. Count your lucky stars that you're able to push out of that game. Three interceptions on three straight passes. The bears defense seemed to be all over them and suddenly the dominant offensive performance. We saw from borough in the bengals week. One against the vikings doesn't look nearly as dynamic when the vikings get absolutely shredded by the arizona cardinals. Think when you put in to perspective that the bengals were a team that was projected to win six and a half games and they go out and they win at home as an underdog that there is this expectation for them to be better than what they are. And i do think there's an ability to kind of be better down. The road is as borough starts to get a little bit. You know have have more chemistry with his guys. Being sat out the entire offseason basically rehabbing the knee. There wasn't a ton of chemistry there. We think the defense got a little bit better but even last week is more. The the vikings beating themselves with ten first-half penalties and your best player. Delvin cooks fumbling the ball over overtime. When they're going in for you know the potential game winning score but this was you know. I i need to go back and watch bengals. Bears a little closer but once we kind of elected not to go under in the first half and then i see the first score. It's like i don't want infuriate myself. So i didn't watch ton of that but what i did see and what i read and what. I'm looking at metrically this morning. Obviously not the best day for borough three picks on three straight plays. That's an nfl record. And it's a little surprising because the first two picks were bad reads from clean pockets the final. He had pressure in his face. The ball was tipped it. Looked like but you know. This was a guy last year before he goes down with an injury. A hundred and ninety nine consecutive passes as a rookie without a pick so that three picks stretch very you know unlike. Joe borough. The bengals offense was pretty grounded. You know things look better than they appear. I think you know when you when you look at the surface right. Yeah the too late. Drives with touchdowns to chase and higgins both in the final five minutes any kind of mass what transpired throughout that game. I again i. I do think there is this thing to the offense for cincinnati where borough is still working himself back into form. You know. you just can't miss the entire offseason. you can't play one series. In the preseason. And i know for him personally. The focus was getting his body right and not necessarily the playbook in the chemistry with teammates. Now that focus can shift a little bit one thing. I will say for bears. Fans who want a pound their chest in the wake of twenty seventeen win a you talked about it with the steelers not gonna win many nfl football games and your offense gains hundred and six yards and bears fans also who are clamoring for justin field to start sooner rather than later. Be careful what you wish for all in signs point to field being the guy going forward once you know what's wrong with andy. Dalton didn't look good from a non contact standpoint potential torn acl but the bears a robust three point four yards per play in the victory. Everything we saw that look positive against that. Rams defense suddenly not there against the cincinnati bengals. One thing pain. That stood out for me and i know titans fans won't be happy because they feel like we unfairly pick on mike variable around these parts the titans comeback they race a twenty four to nine deficit. Seattle seahawks game. That looked like it was going to get away from early on the titans score. Thirty to twenty nine with thirty seconds to go now credit the titans for fighting back. I off not quite sure why. Mike variable doesn't allow a ten second runoff knowing he's got to timeouts in his back pocket. And you don't wanna give russell wilson anytime but paying the strength of your football team is your offense. Derrick henry is running at will and i mean abusing seattle every chance he gets reba instead of trying to win his offense on the field going for to kicked the extra point putting his fate of the football team. In the hands of a coin flip. Tennessee wins the toss. They still don't score. They get a three and out from seattle and win the game but the decision making there in my opinion that when a negative manner gets masked because of the result. Yes if we all know we can win a coin toss or our defense is going to force it three out. You make that call but a little bit staggering. The titans didn't feel they wanted to try and win it right there on the road in a game or they had all the momentum late in regulation you do have the momentum in just on the surface. You're looking at this as saying. Hey were six and a half point dog here. let's let's play with a little more variants. Let's understand that the best unit on our team is the offense in the worst unit on the opposing team is the defense and if we only have to get two or three yards to win this game and not give it back to russel wilson. Let's go ahead and do that. But ultimately variable chose to kick the pat go into overtime but again it wasn't just that decision. It was like how you managed the clock and allowing the ball to get back into russell. Wilson's hands late. I will say this aside from a couple of those decisions. I think you have to give the titans some credit for being resilient you before the game even starts lose your left tackle andrea and more bizarre so bizarre the situation there you go down fifteen at halftime. Nothing is going. The titans way you have to settle for three field goals in the first half the twelfth man is just rocking. You've got jobbed. On the julio jones touchdown the defense is you'll to getting shredded and as a six point dog back and the defense get some stops. Derrick henry literally put the offense on his back. Henry faced eight plus men boxes on fifty four percent of his runs second most in week two yet. He averaged more than two and a half yards per attempt above expectation. That titans defense pays rebel back with the decision right. They get the monster stop and overtime and they're really the ones that set up the game winning drive but you're right you kind of see the decision making process where doesn't necessarily trust his offense and then you've you know kind of fast forward to sunday night football and you have horrible out there like center. We going for this and overtime. Are we going for this overtime. Lamar what do you want to do. Let's go do this and it's just a different mindset there with an organization in baltimore that is analytically driven. Well you had some. I wanted to go. Because i do want to highlight some of the positive things that we saw over the weekend and of course baltimore for those folks who watch the game. The hands down the most entertaining game of the weekend. The ravens battled back they race. A thirty five twenty four devastate against the kansas city chiefs late fumble from clyde edwards allaire. Baltimore gets the football backhand city full complement timeouts and there was zero hesitation. Pain between lamar. John harbaugh you have to love the amount of trust. He showed in his young quarterback and it also helps when a great spot because sammy watkins two yards short. The first down offense who rolls back out there. It looks like they're they're about half a yard short. So that makes the decision process much easier. But you have to say this right tough spot for baltimore. They are an east coast team. That played on the west coast monday night. That game did not end until well after midnight on the east coast. Another five and a half hour flight back. You were beaten banged up. Didn't have two guys on the align we knew all of the other injuries offensively. Your corner situation was a little bit uncertain as well. So you you kind of slade. The dragon right. That was your kryptonite. We saw what lamar sammy. Watkins were celebrating after the fumble awesome in. Maybe that's the thing that kind of changes your season builds confidence for the future and it was fantastic and other man. You beat the chiefs in saying that. I kind of think it was good for for the chiefs as well because there's all this talk about going seventeen. No they're wanted to run the table this year. And now you get smacked in the face. You don't have that pressure. But i will say this. When i watched the game to me. Everything seemed to go perfect for baltimore in the sense that they kept close enough where they could run the ball and yet here. You are down eleven late. Third quarter patrick. Mahomes has the bolt midfield games over. And you've played the best you possibly could. And he just makes an uncharacteristic interception on third down. I don't know what he's trying to do there. And then even despite that you have the game winning drive sealed delivered. And for whatever reason andy. Reid decided not to run offense. We're just gonna hand it off to clyde edwards hilar- like our ninety seventh best player on offense and we're going to let him determined things. And so that's kind of the interesting part to this. Game is baltimore undermanned. Horrific situation pete's the kansas city chiefs. But it's like. I watched ending you know the kansas city chiefs kinda lost that game. And that's kind of how i viewed but it was a fantastic win for baltimore and i don't think it will end up being about loss for the kansas city chiefs. Either no. I don't think kansas city will come back to a game. They lost and prime time in september. And that's where our season got away from us by any stretch of the imagination. Of course the big showdown in the nfc west. This weekend were afc west. Excuse me with a welcome in the los angeles chargers pay no. I was pretty impressed with matt. Rule defense overall they hold the saints to the lowest yardage output. During the sean payton era saints average three yards per play. Get just forty three offensive snaps and the saints. Never snap the ball once. She might take that back. They never drove inside the carolina. Twenty once their only touchdown came on an eighteen yard. Drive pretty impressive effort from a young defense coming at age absolutely in the panthers. Defense is one pro. Betters really gravitated towards this off season. It was young and it was improving. And you had brian burns. Whose kind of turning into a premier pass rusher at this point you drafted. What most think is shutdown corner. Jc horn jimmy. Chen does a great job. Rome in the middle of the field. So you have talent at every level. Now you did face. Zach wilson. Megan his first. Nfl start on the road. Fans in the stands. James in the saints were in a prime letdown position but they were fantastic. Carolina got jameis winston on sixty one percent of his dropbox. The pressure was incredible. Whether it was natural whether it's manufactured james had a passer rating of four when pressured and zero when blitzed his zero point zero to completion percentage overall fourteen percent below expectation. There are some. you know real players here. on carolina's defense. The weakness of the team though is still the offensive line. We saw the jets registered. Eighty percent pass rush win rate week one. They did a good job though here. Holding up against the saints defensive front. That just dominated green bay. If carolina's offensive line can gradually improve the season. Panthers become pretty interesting here talk especially in an nfc that other than maybe the top of the pecking order doesn't have a clearly defined middle class so to speak. I mean we know the rams in box will be there in the thick of things. We know that the nfc is going to be an absolute beast but who knows. Carolina has a chance to crack the back end of the party. A more than winnable game coming up on thursday. Where they're a touchdown. Plus road favorite against the houston texans quarterback. We've blasted in multiple times on this. Very podcast over the last couple of years. I do want to give him props for performance on thursday night. That of course being daniel jones twenty to thirty two for two hundred and forty nine yards nine carries ninety five yards rushing touchdown. More importantly didn't turn the ball over. Once his mastery of the washington football team would've continued. Had it not been for an aaron call from zebras that the nfl sent a nice letter of apology to the new york football giants. About what a nice letter. Doesn't that just fix everything. Remind you eighth grade you know and you try to date older women and they just say pay and we have to let you down gently. It's just not gonna work out there. Is that nice little transition post eighth grade. When you're about to be a freshman and you're kind of mingling with with that with that crowd a little bit and you feel like you're you're just invincible as you're talking to the older class getting back on on on On task here. Daniel jones deserve better and we talked about his ability to handle washington's defense over his career in that did not change and we also outlined how washington's defense is not as good as what people believe it to be they are overrated right now. The perception is higher than than what the reality is of that defense and daniel jones is willing to attack washington through the area in on the ground average ten yards a carry impressive through the air to. He was pressured on forty five percent of his dropbox but is completed air yards. Were nine point two almost a full yard better than any quarterback that's played yet this week. His completion percentage three yards better than expectation. Now you can't settle for five field goals on the highway and expect to win. But the giants were the clear-cut right side in that game from a spread perspective. The of outright. And as you eluded to write like just poor luck with the reps botching that felt like a real rough week overall for for for the of this this. This week didn't inconsistency let's call it consistency on a variety of fronts and hopefully it gets rectified. They're still nod in midseason form by any stretch. But yeah i think there were a number of game changing place. They kind of get swept under the rug. So i'm with you in. That regard did seen interesting. Note may have to dig into it. Apparently the last twelve games played in the nfc east between teams in that division against one another the underdog eleven and one against the spread or maybe twelve in one now at this point so i think it speaks to the level of parody. We've seen in that division from top to bottom but something to keep tabs on as we'll have big showed on a monday night football between the cowboys and eagles as well. What else stood out to you in a positive manner of things that were pleasant surprises over the weekend. I think we probably go to teddy bridgewater because that was one of those weird games where there is an inflated line and that was the great debate all week. Are we taking jacksonville in their home. Opener with a line. That should have been you know or or would have been two and a half last week. We've now crossed three of the four. And we're on the six. Is there enough value. And we saw jacksonville. Get out to an early lead but teddy bridgewater was fantastic again. We kind of said this coming into the season that denver was projected to face the very easiest schedule of passing defenses. Jacksonville is one of those. But what i love to see his ted. He's pushing the ball downfield this year and he's keeping his accuracy. Almost eleven intended area words per throw yesterday at the accuracy. Nine percent better than expectation. Teddy was better under pressure and when he was blitzed than he was from a clean pocket. Pressure on thirty seven percent drawbacks but didn't have a single turnover worthy throw. So it's it's pretty clear at this stage. That bridgewater is confident right now. He's heard the whispers of of being a game manager eddy's expanded his game a little bit. He took to to push the ball. Deeper and denver has the weapons and the schedule to be extremely efficient through the air. All season tell you you talk about his weapons. Portland son looked very healthy in a second game back now knows he can assert himself as their number one while jerry. Judy sideline think it allow him to build some report with teddy. That secondary is one of the best in the league. If not the best and as you mentioned and we talked about in the pre season podcast schedule that's beyond favorable for denver to build cement him and be come formidable in the afc and what we talk about denver and what their defense did pain rookie. Reminded i guess over the weekend. Why rookie quarterback's rnd rookies. Trevor lawrence struggled mightily zach wilson. Three interceptions in his first five passes against that new england defense justin fields albeit coming in. Relief didn't look like he was processing the nfl game nearly as quickly as he needs to know. Of course all those things can change. And then there was davis mills. Who stepped in for tyrod taylor. Going eight of eighteen one touchdown one interception for shade more than one hundred yards. I think it's always fascinating to try and figure out what these rookies can bring to the table and week one because fan base is obviously c. A first round. In the case of the texans a third round quarterback kind of being the saving grace and the silver lining. But these guys have to learn to walk before they run and don't want anybody to panic prematurely Some of these guys may struggle in difficult situations. Davis mills trevor lawrence justin fields. Zach wilson extremely schmaltz sample size but right now number one. Two three and four in terms of worst completion percentage compared to expectation. Davis mills is as you alluded to the first pick. Houston had past. Draft is the third rounder. I think he's a guy with some upside but he's not an nfl starter right now. Trevor lawrence very disappointing. I was more disappointed in his week. One performance i know. It's on the road in front of a hostile crowd but houston's defense is is no great shakes. this was obviously a more difficult task and ultimately what kept me off taking. The inflated price was a young quarterback with a very vanilla offense against vic fangio defense. That's extremely difficult justin fields. We saw him kind of get tossed in there. Let's see what it looks like with a game plan. That's actually devised for him. Very fair. point yet wilson mean. Could you faced tougher defenses. So far i mean carolina's defense was fantastic. And then you get bill belichick. I mean we know. His history facing young quarterbacks so handy looked plays denver. this weekend. I mean talk about a tough trifecta for zach wilson. Dude gonna come out of there going. I'm going to need a mental stability coach to try and keep peace of mind. Yes and the offensive line. You know the the old line which was was built up by joe. Douglas this offseason suddenly without its very best part and mci becton. so he's not getting blindsided protection either So that that's all these teams right. The reason these young quarterbacks are on these teams because they weren't very good to begin with right and so you're playing for poor team. You're going up against some tough competition. Sps blue specifically. It's my cac wilson. And so that's really where the struggles are coming in. But let's give them some time and hopefully things pan out for these guys. The one had will ask you sheriff before we transition here. It would be a disservice both in entertainment. And i think something that we like discussing. What did you think of mike mccarthy late in that game that i think i tweeted out that may have been the worst clock management. I've seen from an nfl head coach in quite some time. No idea what the hell that was. I mean there is no justification for the way. Mike mccarthy handled the final minute plus of that game. I thought it was a great start to the drive. He was methodical. he went are. We're gonna win it with our offense on the field. We're gonna make sure that the chargers don't have a chance to get the football back pain. How the hell do you run. Thirty seconds off the clock. You have timeouts left there and greg. Well we know that he's got the ability hit long field goals. This guy has been accurately wasn't in week one and you settle for a fifty six yard field goal as the game winner as time expired instead of trying to pick up another fifteen to twenty hours to win this thing. I loved the drive. Initially it was like we're just cool calm collected. The situation is not going to impact us. We're just gonna methodically move. This puppy downfield. We're going to kick a game winning field goal. The chargers are not going to see the ball off. It was awesome and all of a sudden. It's like what in the world is going on here. Dallas got one play off the final thirty three seconds and they had a timeout. I can't believe column more called the run play. That was the most botched endgame. I've seen in a long time in the greatest part is the press conference afterwards provided even more entertainment. Mike mccarthy said he didn't want settle for fifty six yarder but several problems arose. He's mccarthy one of the players came off the field that shouldn't have just a communication error. He then blames the stadium. I don't know if you've heard the shea said the digital clock and so i've been dying out. I heard this. He then proceeds to say kellen moore had issues too with the clock was blocked by camera guy and couldn't see and so it was just excuse in lie after lie so but kind of reeling this back in even with pollard as dynamic as you shouldn't call a run and kellyn does call run as soon as pollard. Stop call your time out there. Yeah when he eight seconds left at that point the entire playbook is open. The entire field is still open. At that point. You can throw a seventeen yard. Seem over the middle. Still clock the ball and have plenty of time to run your field. Goal you out there. And let's begin at here like mike. Mccarthy isn't a good coach. And i understand the internet age that we're living in but if i'm jerry jones. I'm expecting more from one hundred sixty million dollar quarterback to like if i'm dak like what the fuck is this just a running play. I'm changing that like if you think for a second. Tom brady peyton. Manning aren't checking out of that bullshit. Run play you're out of your mind so like for me. Doc isn't removed from shoulder. Some of the blame here to at the very least call a timeout. Have like a an understanding of time in situation. If you're i mean pain. Shane felker audibly out of that. Play matt saracen in his second. Start starting quarterback of the dillon. Panthers knows that he's got audible away from a run to try and preserve little time at the end of the game but again these are the things we talk about that. I think fans go. Well we won the game. What does it matter. Don't ever let the results mask some of the deficiencies in the process. Because if you make mistakes over and over again you can get away within a short period of time but over the long haul it's going to rear its ugly head and i think it's a perfect microcosm for the way things work handicapping when we talk about closing line value. We talk about good bets that lose in bad bets that win. Don't fall victim to confirmation bias and just because you get a good result. Let dissuade you from doing the right things. They're going to pay dividends over the long haul. We saw this coaching staff on hard knocks and it was so embarrassing that i couldn't finish watching some of the episodes i mean even the special court and special teams coordinator john fossil great guy and he's come up with some innovative things right. I mean he was the guy that was responsible for like the on side kick last year in the atlanta comeback. You got this guy. Talking to twenty two year old kids telling them running a reward and this this is one of the worse compiled coaching staffs in the entire league. Yeah i mean it's one of those things for the cowboys with so many offensive weapons at their disposal. You go out there. your score. Fourteen points early on that game was rather bizarre from variety of fronts. I don't think the charges were overly good by any stretch of the imagination but have to think that there are over betters. Who are rejoicing. With the way things worked early believe the first in that game came in the third quarter. And it's still never got anywhere close to sniffing the total pace and tempo clearly play a role there. And we'll see the cowboys again. As we mentioned on display a week from today playing host the philadelphia eagles and the charges will have their most daunting test and the division when they go to arrowhead to take on the chiefs anything else from a good bad and ugly standpoint did. He thinks we're touching on before. We pivot real quick to look at lines. We're diving in to the barn burner. We have on tap between the lines and pack. I was going to. But let's save it for chargers. Kansas city but i will frame it this way much more difficult being a head coach than defensive coordinator. There are not some. There's there's some issues going on with the chargers. Both with joe lombardi and brandon staley nice little tease more reason to tune in on thursday. As of course the chargers and chiefs will be one of the marquis games that will break down in great detail all right look at headlines pain from fan duel sportsbook new england though. You're not bringing the play to the new orleans saints. Look ahead number. There had new england listed as a modest one point favorite in the wake of their seventeen sixteen lost the dolphins the saints had looked like the greatest thing since sliced bread and their dismantling of the green bay packers. Suddenly new england goes out. There takes care of business against the jets. The saints could move the football at all and their loss to the panthers. And we're looking at new england fulfill goal favorite on sunday afternoon. It's interesting because let's see what what the saints look like right from. They kinda came down to earth. You know they've been dealing with situations a home away from home for a while now. What impact does that have. Typically some trends in the nfl third straight road game. Not the best. I think we're starting to see what new england is if you look metrically. They should have beaten the dolphins and then they come out in the exceed expectation by a wide margin against the jets. And so that's kind of what you're seeing here is. I think this is a line. That now says new england's for real the defense that got a lot of its parts back whether it was opt out injuries also a couple off season additions as well. The defense is for real. And that offensively mack jones gives them a much better chance to be multidimensional and have some efficiency through the air. Let's also monitor some of the saints injury situations. Does marshon lattimore return. This week does does davenport shot. Do four or five of the rotational. Deb guys defensively return ad d. Get your starting centerback. So there's some some question marks there also with some injuries and and that's why this line is is currently where it's at modest move but onto a key number between a pair of two teams and metlife stadium the giants extra time to prepare. They'll welcome in arthur smith. In the atlanta falcons look ahead at fan duel. Sportsbook made the giants a two and a half point favorite now out to a full field goal. You can see some justification in this number simply because we all think the giants probably should have one in a tough spot thursday night and now you do get that extra time. We'll say the falcons showed better here against tampa offensively. They did some things that were substantially better than the opener against philadelphia. Arthur smith was more aggressive. Arthur smith was more clued into what is offense could do better right. You're relying on offense of line to run the ball all the time and again and we got to kind of have to air this ball out a little bit more and so he took some large steps in week. Two as a head coach which you like to see. Let's see where this line trends always interesting to see how some of these numbers start to move around and last but not least a modest move. I'll be at one coming off the key. We haven't seen green bay play. San francisco look ahead price for sunday night. Football at faneuil. Sportsbook had the niners e. three point favorite that number out to three and a half or even four in some spots up to four fan kind of the top of the market. I could be wrong and correct me. If i am but i could have sworn at some point this off season prior to some of the uncertainty surrounding aaron rodgers that the look ahead line for the game of the year stuff had green bay a favourite and a pretty substantial one that much. I don't have to go back and look at some of the reports that i get. I don't remember seeing them. A favorite. But i definitely don't think it was the forty niners even close to a key number. It wasn't yeah so it'll be interesting to see. Obviously this line will come off the board right before kickoff tonight of of green bay detroit and so if you see an edgier you probably should go attack it now but It it is an interesting number at this point. And it's an open that that says san francisco wins by about four touchdowns. But i i in saying that if green bay goes out and covers tonight and looks itself. That certainly isn't going to reopen for. So that's that's the great debate here. Yep for sure and it's a match that has not exactly been kind to the packers in the past as you've seen forty niners imposed physically multiple times in the last couple of years but again that will bear watching based on sunday night. Football's results all right onto the final game of the nfl slate. For week two takes us to lambofield. Green bay will welcome in a division rival. And it's green bay and eleven and a half point favorite total in the game of forty eight and a half pain at fan duel. Sportsbook the detroit. Lions have not played on a monday night since october. Fourteenth two thousand nineteen a game. They lost twenty three twenty two to green bay amid a myriad of miscues that should have had detroit winning that game outright. It's been fifteen years since the packers start a season two. It's never happened under aaron rodgers leadership and when you look at green bay while they come into this one off the worst loss of aaron rodgers career. Thirty five point. Defeat at the hands of the new orleans saints fewest points. Green bay has mustard in a aaron rodgers. let's start we actually began the second. Half when you look at the packers six straight up and six against the spread in a limited sample size coming in off loss under the floor and the packers will become the first team favored by double digits after a thirty point loss since the two thousand fourteen eagles and only the twelfth team to get thrust into this role since the nfl merger back in one thousand nine hundred seventy but the silver lining if for green bay since two thousand five teams favored by double digits. The week after losing by twenty plus points a robust sixteen and seven against the number. I gave you all of that. Pain to ask the biggest question of all in this matchup. Detroit have anything in the secondary that can slow down a green bay passing attack if it starts to play downhill tonight. Aaron rodgers is certainly chomping at the bit to get back out there after his largest lost ever seeing this secondary. Which you're kind of hinting isn't very good. It's all accurate right. I mean lions defense. Can't stop the pass dead last in defense pass efficiency last year dead. Last in passing touchdown rate allowed week one against san francisco. Lions defense allowed fourteen point one yards per pass attempt in a seventy percent passing success. Rate the first three quarters and now you're number one corner and jeffrey kudos is out. There is some buzz rolling around this week that the saints may have figured out how to defend the packers in. That's going to be the blueprint moving forward. Let's say i mean the saints. Basically played cover to shell. They didn't send extra rushers. They dropped defenders to stop intermediate passes and they had their backside defender. Stay home to negate. Some of what. Aaron rodgers likes to do with roll outs and boots. That style works if you can stop the run with your front four and five or six guys in the box. And that's what we saw against the saints. The packers were held a two point nine. Carry a twenty percent rushing success rate. They didn't record a single explosive run. So the saints dominated in the trenches despite playing with this light box and then the game got out of hand in green bay had to pass if you look at aaron rodgers though last season during his mvp season when he faced any variation of two deep safeties his passer rating dipped twenty. Two points is adjusted. Net yards per tempt declined. One point one yards his touchdown to interception ratio is a shade over two to one. Devante atoms production was substantially worse against two high safeties as well but again single high coverage right cover one or cover three aaron rodgers and davante adams just ate all season right when adams was targeted against cover cover. Three at a league-high thirteen touchdowns eighty two percent of his targets. Rogers at a one. Forty passer rating when targeting rogers When targeting atoms in that coverage detroit last week against san francisco played the highest rate of cover three and they also blitz to the highest rate in the lake. The exact opposite. Of what the saints and dennis allen did the opposite of what you have slowed aaron rodgers down a little bit last season and then again in week one. So maybe aaron glenn changes things runs defense that he didn't intend to run and throws a wrinkle or two here with extra day of prep. I'm not sure. Trade has the defensive pieces to even attempt to mimic this. You know they're defensive. Line is not very good couple. Geyser banged up along the line for this game whether they play. Let's see certainly gonna be one hundred percent jebel lions defense the finish twenty-ninth and defensive line yards last season twenty seventh in pass rush win rate any projections that i saw for the detroit defensive line coming into the season had the lions defensive line basically bottom third of the league so i don't even know if they have the talent or the pieces to attempt to mimic what gave aaron rodgers trouble last year. And what the saints didn't week one. This just kind of feels like a get right game for the packers on this side of the ball. What you mean. The lions allowing thirty plus points in seven straight games flirting with the nfl record for futility if they can make it eight tonight is in a harbinger of things to come for them putting together. A lockdown defensive effort against the packers often embarrassing performance. Yeah and it's just you know not not not a great match up you know we all look looking like oh yeah like you know. Detroit's defense is bad and they struggle in the secondary but again even like some of the scheme element of this detroit is going to do. At least how they wanna be built with aaron land in how they execute in week one is the stuff that green bay just absolutely shreds. Yeah i can't imagine a green bay if they're going new Believe they have title. Aspirations should struggle in any way shape or form with an extra day to prepare against this lion. Stop you now. The other side of the ball. I think probably gets a lot more fascinating when you're talking about a green bay defence at generated just five pressures on jameis winston the entire game last week in four quarterback hits. Things don't get any easier was the zip area. Smith put on short term. I are and the one thing we've seen from green bay over the years paying. You're banging the drum for this years ago. The way to beat this packers defense. That's a little bit lighter. Upfront is to establish the ground game and use a physically imposing offensive line. That's one area where maybe detroit has the personnel to put some stress in green bay. Defensively you get. That furball situation handled the. I think it's still may come up again. I didn't exactly prepare for this podcast. In the fact that i have no water anywhere in my office so i'm trying to hack my way through this because you know what i am the model of intestinal fortitude. So when you say prepare you meant the water situation actual preparation. The actual preparation is there. But the waters allen drug is the the gallon jug is not by your side. I think it's sitting on the kitchen counter. I'm not gonna lie. We're certainly playing through the elements. I'm talking to you on a different phone. Because i didn't have the other one on the charger all weekend. And so here we are. We're just mac in a work situation. We're making it work you. If everything went the way we drew it up this business would be way too easy even the content creation let alone actually winning games at the window. sometimes you got to fight through a little bit of adversity. i like it. So you know the lions offense is good. It's certainly not good enough to get in a shootout here. Their weakness however might actually be a strength tonight right. they're going to need to be old school. They're going to have to run this antiquated run. Happy offense with anthony lynn short in this game limit. Possessions rely on the very best part of this team which is the lions offensive line. You can look at the final score last week against san francisco. Thirty points in that gough threw three touchdowns and think. Wow it was garbage. Time though san fran already have their bags packed in the first half goff threw for three and a half yards and attempt an thirty two passing success rate with a pick but the lions ground game was actually really good last week. Five point to a carry in the first half at four explosive runs the weaknesses. You mentioned. todd is green bay upfront. One of the smith brothers is also out last season. They got bullied along the defensive line. Finish twenty fourth in line yards twentieth in run. Stop win rate over. Fifty two percent of opponent runs greatest successful. The lions have to be able to run the ball short in this game to stick within the number period when gough does throw it the running backs. You're probably going to be involved here because one. He loves checking the ball down and to the lions receiver. Group is both poor and banged up. So i would expect when gough does throw at a heavy dose of de'andre swift and jamaal williams out of the backfield and his revenge game. The packers weren't great. Defending running back passes last season gave about eight and a half yards a reception. Joe berry is obviously the new. Dc came over from the rams so different scheme which could help in that area but the rams were world slightly better defending that type of past than the packers worse. Let's see if the scheme helps that but there's just not much On this side of the ball ta either the lions can lean hogs upfront and run the ball or this probably gets ugly. How dare you not play some respect on some of these lions receivers when they're number one at least on paper is most likely quintas fist. And all you read this week out of the detroit. Free press is how optimistic alliance are about a player named trinity benson who they picked up three days before the first game of the season and they want him to suddenly catapulted into being a prominent piece of their offense. Hey trinity if you're out there listening go out there and prove me wrong. But i don't think that's exactly a ringing endorsement for what the lines are going to get in there. Receiving game knowing that tyrod williams expected to mess with a concussion places them a in a bit of a perilous situation. One thing i do want to ask him about two two things were. You asked me a question here. Number one is trinity's father likely came up with that name in a strip club and number two. You pay for the detroit. Free press you pay dollar. No no no. I've read this answer van. I read the free articles. It was a rough weekend at the window. So i couldn't afford to get the six months of access for couldn't pony pony the dollar if i- ponied up a dollar for every newspaper that wants me to pay to read their stuff. Just get sports. Books advertise their. I'm sure our partners at fanned will be more than happy to advertise. Whether it's the clarion star-ledger the detroit free press or any other newspaper out there and get articles. That paywall thing is rather maddening. I'm not gonna lie pain. This is turned into streaming television. Where no one's come together to like offer this package of all the streaming networks. They're just all doing their own thing. Now the same thing with the with the written articles like it's the process of putting in your car to pay a dollar. That just boggles my mind. It's all about micro transactions now and recurrent billing and everything else and don't get me started on streaming services and all of that. Because i think i pay for every single one of them to watch european soccer leagues and lord knows what else that ends up accumulating faster than my direct tv. Bill ever did one thing. I did want to ask you about in terms of relationships here. If you're matt leflore now granted. You're with jared goff since two thousand seventeen but how does that level of familiarity you think impact the way green bay can go about preparing for him. Yeah absolutely factor in this game. Which is going to kind of keep tucked in the vest. But it's certainly something that he's seen all the time right. And that is going to play a factor in this game. But i think at this stage. We know what jared goff is so. It's not something that's too far outside. The box kind of hinted at his production. The first half when this scheme that detroit wants to implement is is out. That right second half. You're adjusting to the scoreboard. And so this is a quarterback that likes to drink and dunk his way down the field. And that's why he's now in detroit and not in sunny calvin and so when he goes to throw the ball here. It's going to be a lot of tight ends and running backs and it just comes up to you know the new dc to to get that handled. I mean if you are the packers tonight. Your defense should be playing in a phone booth. I want jared goff to attempt to beat me down the field deep with a receiver core. That is not of an nfl standard. I'm not letting that ground game just chunk me to death. Four five six seven yards a clip as my offense sits on the sideline than aaron rodgers. Picking splinters out of his ass. I want an aggressive defensive approach. And that'll be interesting to see if there is that adjustment from the packers defense because it's from that brandon staley. Mantra defensively right. It's we're going to play with five defensive backs we're going to force teams to run the ball which is less efficient. That game plan needs to change tonight. There needs to be more mass in the box. And if you can stop the run then this game gets ugly. Get excited i know. Everyone will be glued to the edge of their seat. Watching the jamaal williams revenge game tonight at lambeau. Green bay and overwhelming favourite at fan duel. Sportsbook water remind. All of you are loyal listeners. Fan to a sportsbook dot com slash. Bet the board plenty of great promotions available for you bet boost everything you can think of to try and take advantage of inefficient markets. That might be out there. Thirty two one. Promotional be available. Starting tuesday for philadelphia against dallas. We're talking about all new users risking five dollars having a chance to get one hundred fifty dollars return on investment that same thing for denver and the jets restrictions do apply so read that fine print and you put yourself in a good spot. All pain last word goes to you before shutting it. Down for the deck all right dolla. Got a man a few words this discussion last week. yeah. I know. But that's why i wanted to. You're gonna close it out. Oh you're in. You're the opposite of what we discussed but mixed it up and then we go back to wednesday. You're gonna tell me you're gonna text me after the show and go. You know what there was something else i wanted to say. And you're not going to be able to say it so all of our listeners. You're hearing and your first but all right we're done we. We've done enough damage for monday morning. Best of luck for all of you. Our loyal listeners. Out there with whatever way you choose to play monday night football or anything else in the next forty hours. We'll be back with you on wednesday with college football action in the meantime. Hopefully we'll see you at the window. Thanks for to the board. You can catch todd and pain every monday. Wednesday and thursday during football season. Breaking down the biggest. Nfl and college football games and to make sure you don't miss any free. Best bets subscribed to bet the board on. Itunes google. Play spotify or wherever. You listen to podcasts.

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