The Matt Bernier Show - Recap Edition - July 22, 2019
<music> welcome in the Bernier show on T._v.. My Name's Matt Birney. You can follow me on twitter at Bernier underscore Matt. This is the recap edition going back taking a look at two grade one races from this past week in the weekend of July the twentieth one from Monmouth Park One from Saratoga race course we'll take a look at the grade one Haskell as well as the Grade One coaching called American oaks. Give you a steak montage. Some thoughts quick hits as well as the weekends Best Forest Beyer speed figures are concerned however you listen to this thing thank you for doing so youtube sound cloud. I tunes video dot the Dot coms well spotify however you listen please rate review in subscribe <hes> questions comments concerns beneath video player on Youtube or directly to me on twitter at Bernier underscore Matt. Let's waste no time dive into it. Race number twelve not really race number twelve but these scheduled twelfth race. It's what is called at Monmouth on Saturday Saturday given all of the issues that went on was the grade one haskell invitation for three year olds a mile and an eighth. Let's take a look at the field. Six of them signed on a post time favorite no surprise maximum security the horse that was disqualified from I in the Kentucky Derby was is bet down to odds of four to five the second choice was king for a date nor said defeated him in the local prep for the Haskell that would have been the Pegasus he went off at odds of five to two mutual Gustav coming in from the West Coast for Bob Baffert went off at odds of three one. Let's take a look and see how this race played laid out would stretch run at this year's Haskell maximum security pets corner. Macho Gust is done. I make him wear maximum. Security has his mind on business. He leads my half. My Machakos trying so hard maximum-security Chastang Front Macho valiant but maximum Curto has one that T._v.. Dot Com haskell invitational maximum security prevails by length and a quarter over Muccio Guzzo who ran second and odds of three to one he was links clear of spun to run who finished third and odds of thirty four to one single looking maximum security. He is five of seven lifetime six times in the exact but again factor in the Kentucky Derby Situation Relation he has never finished across the line outside of the top two and seven race career is over one point two million dollars in career earnings. He is owned and bred by Gary and Mary West trained by Jason Service ridden to victory by Lewis is the pedigree at the bottom of the horse cart heart. He is by New Year's Day at an aniseed mayor named Li'l indy one or two buyer for maximum security winning this year's Haskell invitational one twenty eight pace adjusted time form U._S. rating the raw number is a one twenty five so the the they're. They're pretty close if you make the argument that perhaps the buyer is a hair on the light side but again we're splitting hairs over to two to three points. <hes> I like the way that he finished he came home in twelve point. Six <hes> pretty solid final fraction there especially at a Mile Lila eighth given the fractions of this race twenty two and four forty six and three ten for three quarters. They stopped the clock and forty seven and two obviously an odd day down at monmouth with the whole scheduling situation where they were going to try to go. I think it was crazy for the even try to run <hes> even the fact that they got through all the stakes races. I don't know why you could just postponed it to Sunday but I don't know all the logistic so easy for me to sit here and say all that without knowing all the details but if everybody else was canceling probably you yet so so little to gain but trying to run what the Hell's the point neither here nor there. Let's talk about the race itself again. Maximum security has proven that he is not the the straightest runner <hes> and I don't want I see so many people continue to bring bring up the riders and continue to bring up Lewis is can we can. We acknowledge that perhaps it's the horse I I don't know that it's it's always going to be the writers fault. I understand they are generally the ones that are are sort of responsible for keeping them out in control well sometimes again horses and animals got a mind of his own and I still maintain maximum security is not the he's not the most polished all around as far as the mental aspect of my opinion when you see him on the race track. I don't know what his disposition is off the track back. Maybe he's like a cow. Maybe he is just as kind as can be but when he when he's running he's not the he's not. It doesn't feel like anyway mentally. He is completely there because he does some goofy things every once in a while whether he's ducking in whether the Lee changes are. A little bit peculiar he was pretty clean as far as those mechanics were concerned on Saturday but again he did he drifted in it impeded king for a day initially when I was watching the race the first time through I said and I didn't hear any any audio king for a day just completely dropped anchor and I missed that part art obviously you'll go back and watch the replay. The impeded pretty badly forced to study hard. You're supposed to just draw a line through this race for King for a day. Maximum security needs to figure that out. I think if we if he's going to end up being the you know a major player for the Breeders Cup classic. I don't know that you can afford to do that sort of thing. Against Better. Horses theoretically better horses <hes> the speed figures are the thing that I think need to be acknowledged for maximum security and perhaps he will not need to improve in a year like this where it feels was like and we'll see what happens in the Whitney in two weeks and that's going to be a race that goes a long way as far as indicating what these three year olds how they're going to stack up against the older horses because it has been a little bit of <hes> an underwhelming older horse campaign for these longer races <hes> the met mile was was clearly very strong race but as far as you know going out to a mile on the mile and a quarter the older horses really haven't done anything to knock your socks off either when I look at this and I see maximum-security earns a one or two buyer for perspective sake he's run seven seven times his last five buyers one zero to one hundred one. Oh One one one one or two so he's not making any real headway. As far as those speed figures are concerned. He's always been fast and it's not that he's getting slower. He's just not ah taking that that I think necessary step forward to raise the Breeders Cup classic now. He doesn't mean that he's not capable of doing that but you do start to get to a point where once we've seen an overall body of work you do start to wonder you know through seven starts you. You haven't really made any giant improvements. <hes> this is the time of year that I think usually see that next move forward from the three year olds when we get into the travers time or let's say September. I think that's why I know. A lot of people say well. Is there three year olds. They're not going to get anybody well. I don't believe that I think they take another step forward sort of in that late August early September range and that's when you really will find out if they can make that big move and then as a four year old I think they take another step forward when we saw that with California chrome we saw that with gun runner horses the horses that are allowed to run his four year olds maximum-security the big thing for me will be the next race can he can. He take that necessary step forward and and again. I keep saying necessary. Maybe is not necessary in a year like this this maybe he doesn't need to move his game up to a one ten buyer in order to win a race that the Breeders Cup classic will find out what the Whitney again. That's really the race that I have circled that. That's that's going to be telling for these three year. Olds kind of the benchmark will be set. Are you capable of running with those kind of horses from a number standpoint <hes> maximum security if he jumps up into a one of seven one eight one ten range in the travers which it sounds like they're going to. They're going to point to that race and there. I don't want to say noncommittal but if he's good to go they'll run their if not the wait for the Pennsylvania Derby. Maybe if I were involved with the Horse I wait for the Pennsylvania Derby <hes> to me. No real need to run at a mile and a quarter unless you're thinking year end awards but even having said that to me. I feel like if you if you were to go and win the Pennsylvania Derby now you've got the Florida Derby the Haskell and the Pennsylvania Derby it would all obviously would depend on what happens with those horses up at Saratoga whoever won the travers but I think you would have a pretty solid case anyway. I clearly knowing that the Breeders Cup would settle a number of things depending on how that whole thing shook down but you'd have a pretty solid case for year end awards with Florida Derby the Haskell in the Pennsylvania Derby depending on what everyone else ends up doing <hes> in my opinion I would go that route with a horse like this and then go to the mile and a quarter Breeders Cup classic but I'm sure the connections will do what they think is correct for the Horse <hes> it's just I don't know what we're going to see from those horses that are already at Saratoga. We'll find out the JIM. Dandy will be on Saturday this coming Saturday anyway. We'll see I'm sure that'll be a very interesting race because seems like it's a pretty wide open event but if any of those horses take the necessary steps forward up into that low one hundred mid one hundred range <hes> and who knows maybe the one or two that maximum security seems to be comfortable people living in that range. Maybe that's going to be enough. I think what we do need to acknowledge those this. He's just a nice horse. He's a good horse. He shows up he gives you what he's got each and every time I love him to just be a little bit on the straight or side you know don't don't get so drift fifty. I mean this is two times two three races on the far turn. He has drifted <hes>. I'd like to get that straightened out a little bit but <hes> look he's part argue that he's not a good horse and he is not one of the leading lights for the three roads are concerned Muccio Gustavo. I was encouraged. Encouraged by this effort I picked him in this race. I thought he was trending the right direction for Baffert and if he was going to get the mile on eight be at a race and attract like monmouth for the Haskell well he got it but the problem was she got beat by a better horse <hes> yes he was a little the wider the maximum security was but I don't think it was enough to really make a difference <hes> if if it was an instance where he lost by a quarter of a length or necker however you want to put that out perhaps then I could sit there and say you know the distance was really the difference maker. I don't think it was the case here mylan quarter of a length and a quarter. Excuse me is enough where I don't think one path is really in my opinion anyway. I don't think that was enough to turn the tables. A one hundred buyer from Joe Guzzo 127 pace adjusted time from U._S.. Rating as far the rest of the field is concerned. <hes> solid enough runs really king for the king for a day was the other one that we needed to touch on and again. You're just supposed to draw a line through this. I still wouldn't rule him out for a race like the travers if they choose to go that route with him because I do think king for a day is a good horse but a maximum security he he's proven and time and time again that he is one of the best of his generation. I'm now thinking bigger picture sure they WANNA get the three year old champion and deservedly so understandable but as far as Breeders Cup classic possibilities are concerned because this was a win neuron he is in the Breeders Cup. Classic is a one or two or a low one hundred buyer enough to win. Maybe this year it is we'll find out with racist like the Whitney in the Pacific classic with the older horses are capable of right now at these longer distances but there's a part of me that wants to see this horse. Take another step forward. I WANNA see him in the travers or in the Pennsylvania Derby get up into the one oh six one zero seven one ten range if he can do that then I think you're looking at a prime candidate for the Breeders Cup classic if he stays in this low one hundred range range. I'm a little bit unsure. It all depends on what the older horse do well. We do know one of the leaders. If not the outright leader the three year old divisions maximum-security he gets the job done the grade one haskell invitational one or two by or one twenty eight pace adjusted did time form U._S.. Rating for the Grade One coaching club American oaks up at Saratoga on Sunday because of the delayed card on Saturday or cancelled. I should say they moved that entire card over Sunday. Take a look at the field only five three year old filly signed ongoing nine furlongs the main track all eyes on Goran to find out which should be able to handle to turns which able to handle a mile and an eighth gamble hindle X._y._z. you name it because so far through to start she had been visually sensational. How would she handle this with? Distance is get to her with anything else. Get to her ultimately did not here's a stretch run in C._C._A.. Oaks topic is on the scene and point of honor comes Wi- there into the stretch Jose Ortiz says let's go Guar Rana coming down to the eight bowl trying. Take hold this lead. It's now two and a half hunting outside point of honor is running on in second. Go Rhino trying to get another sixteenth point of on her running out of time and round and Guarani kicks away again. Guarani has won the coaching club American oaks over point of honor or on prevails nods one five or point of honor who runs second is the second choice at odds of seven two two off topic rounds at Your Trifecta dodds thirty one to one. Let's take a look at Guarani perfect three of three lifetime just under seven hundred thousand dollars in career earnings owned and bred by three chimneys farm in Kentucky trained by Chad Brown ridden to victory by Jose Ortiz the pedigree she's by go sap route of a distorted humor mayor named Magical World Ninety two by or one on thirteen pace adjusted time form U._S. rating one fifteen raw number for time form U._S.. For Point of Honor Ninety one buyer one thirteen pace adjusted time formulas rating one fourteen raw number for her. This was an interesting race for a number of reasons. <hes> Guarani gets out there sets what I think are soft fractions for this level and at this distance <hes> twenty four and one forty nine into for a half thirteen and two or three quarters they stopped the clock and forty nine and three. She's out there on the front. Yes she's taking token pressure pitcher but affiliate of this quality should just be able to go on with it and she did just that. I found it interesting that she ducked out pre significantly when she was hit left handed by Jose going down the lane now. I don't know to me anyway that signifies that she he was tired. I think she's still green Kim my she. This is our third lifetime. Start her first time going to turns probably the first time she even felt stick left-handed because when you take a look and see usually in an instance like that I'd be looking for a horse to hop back door left lied or I'd. Looking at the final eighth of a mile to see her slowing down significantly that wasn't the case <hes> the final eighth she came home and twelve forty nine compared that to a horse point of honor who came home in twelve thirty two so yes point of honor was finishing better but it's not as though it was coming to a crawl she didn't changed leads back to her left which is to be a positive sign. I think she just green figuring things out now having said all that I don't know that I love her going out to a mile and a quarter. I don't know that the Alabama is a race that would be just chomping at the bit to go and bet her on the flip side of horse. It's like point of honor. I would be all in on that because when you look at the way this race was run. Yes it was a relatively tight field so how far back when she you know when it was all said and done but point of honor came from last was wide going around the first turn she's about three or four paths wide out in the clear a compare Goran who was on lead setting off fractions glued to the rail basically throughout in the fact that point of honor came out. I mean when Goran drifted out there under the left-handed urging. I don't WanNa say the point of honor had to stop running or she had to take up but you know she was. Definitely you can see a little bit of a movement there so she acknowledged that the Philly came out into her. I thought she finished really well into me with Gal about you. Combine all that put it all together. I think point of honor to me is a prime win contender already for a race like the Alabama hopefully she gets there and everything seems okay mile and a quarter that seems right in her wheelhouse Gore on. I'm not suggesting she can't get it but I do wonder if this sort of distance if this is going to be her bread and butter a mile an eighth you know a mile those type races so I don't know what the connections will choose to do. If I were involved in against the only thing I can do in an instance like this. I talked about with maximum security. If I were involved just my two cents Fi were involved with Goran I would probably wait for erased. The CASTILIAN runaround Mile Sixteenth at parks degrade one just continue to add that to the resume and you know that a mile and an eighth is going to be within her scope she can get that and that's the Breeders Cup distaff is run at there aren't racist. This is really run at a mile and a quarter of really giant significant races at a mile and a quarter for for fillies and Mares. I get at the Alabama I get it the Delaware Handicap but really other than that there's really not a heck of a lot. That's run it those sort of distances anymore so I just I don't know what they're really is to gain by running around a mile a mile and a quarter and writes like that because she's realistically not going to have to run it those sort of distances a mile and an eighth of if the distaff is your goal runner anorexic the Castilian slight turn back get a little bit more to turn experience and then decide does she need one more prep before the Breeders Cup distaff or you content just training her up to it you know the two terms is an issue you know she has the ability to sit or go. That would just be the way that I would approach and on the flip aside with point of honor I would just be saying I don't care who shows up the mile and a quarter is going to be my friend. The Alabama is my race to win. As far as the rest of the field is concerned. I spoke about it a little bit when we talked about this race and the preview show off topic Nice horse don't think she's quite as is good these other ones champagne anyone nice philly not a superstar okay. You know this race didn't work effort box. I don't think this is her surface. I think she's four so <hes> really just boils down to those top two horses and that's how it played out Gore on prevail she gets the job done answers the to turn question. I think she just a little bit green. Whether you agree or disagree let me know many video player on Youtube or on twitter at Bernier underscore Matt. I think her ducking out on left handed whip was just should not used to it. I think he gets a little bit more experience. It's going to turns. I think she'll be just fine. Gore on it gets the job done here with a ninety two buyer. A one thirteen pace adjusted time form U._S. rating in the C._C._A.. Oaks I'd like her to go to the CASTILIAN. I really want point of honor in a race like the Alabama a mile and a quarter so let's throw it into the stakes montage number of races to go over there. You've got racing from del. Mar monmouth would bind Saratoga you name it. It's all in there. We'll go over those when it come back. Some quick thoughts rapid fire then we'll go into the weekends best as far as buyers concerned. We'll wrap things up so here we go further ado sticks montage mu-chou unusual hope today extreme outside but running on the whole picture changes come hope Apache says gets delayed electron from Sarah Easter mu-chou unusual Joe Moot Jau unusual flying on the outside mu-chou unusual Apache predecessor got ahead. Take a boat show on usual great ride from Joel Rosario top of the line now and Catalina Cruiser E._S._p._N.. Back has to bring out audis best. Jerry has the talent show he has the class and it's going to prevail in the end by the looks of it. Catalina cruiser by just over a length on the outside Mongolian groom is finishing gangly. Catalina crews are probably not these best fully extended. A bit today but he gets the job cold front drops back to third and then comes moon gate warrior there a furlong from the finish more story to nations customer on the inside of Belle harbor and it's an absolute thriller in the Monmouth Cup Belle harbor or war story. Sorry Belle Harbor War story just won't surrender he keeps coming back for more and more story out finishes Bow Harbor and they were more than ten clear of cold front and a long-term Betas coach rock spurts away midnight. B.'s zoo now takes up the chase opting for the rail running here she comes coach rocks midnight zoo comes through now and it's just a formality for midnight beezer never really asked for her best striding out and this very classy filly strolls roles in the molly pitcher by a very solid leg coach rocks ran very well center the course in getting a reminder there at the top of the stretch and bird's eye view clings to the lead just Howard on the outside and visit there are both chasing with determination hitch bird's eye view just Howard just Howard burst to the front of narrow going are just our just our Wednesday so fancy or try to finish the job now to Riga looking for in competition of ideas as fully extended. There's an eighth of a mile to go. I'm so fancy continues to Riga together and so as competition of ideas I'm so fancy competition of ideas I final search I'm so fancy coast tribal battles seek and destroy sticks to the rail down the outside speedy so it's just a peacock in front and now in the clear seek and destroy seek and destroy coming on strongly and seek and destroy racist to the fraud on the outside speedy soul but it's all seek and destroy and has gone on to school went on the Ontario Colleen by about two and three quarter lengths speedy soul second third sister peacocking carnival colors fourth straight Ohio is looking for somewhere to go Ohio needs to spice ace right behind the latest hero running a big one on the outside as well and Ritzy I._p.'s battling back suddenly catapults under pressure did not go on Bowie zero dead and Bowie's heroes join clear Bowie's hero and flabby on practice won the Eddie read they in front valence and now ruby notion finishing well down the outside with Alexandra and magic spell on the Sette summa Sunday in front very wide on the track all examine ruby notion magic spell right right through the center for Patrick Husbands semi Sunday in front in second magic spell but it's a Sunday perfect stakes performance semi Sunday Lincoln Hav Magic Spell Alexandra drivers dropped back to third. They're into the stretch. It is Golden Award who comes down to the Poland Front while camp and on the inside she's Julie continues to battle but Golden Award has the lead down to the sixteenth pole and is getting away under Tyler Jaffa Leone Own Golden Award takes the Choubey by two nights while kept was second hand that was she's Julie and Pic sans so quick thoughts from the Montage San Clemente. I I'm dying for overemphasize emphasized to get an outside in the clear trip throughout. I know she eventually was able to get through but man. This is two trips in a row where I've been urban three trips in a row now where I've watched and she's in an amongst horses and she comes with a nice late bid but it takes her so long to get extricated from there. I'd love to see what happens when she is out in the clear and allowed to run the way that mutual unusual was where you just let it roll from the back of the pack. Maybe it's a little bit of crying over spilt milk but I just I'd love to see what overemphasize can do in an instance where she's allowed to roll the San Diego. Catalina cruiser was not nearly as impressive as I would have hoped he was winning that race visually it was not it was not spectacular did what he needed to do. The speed figure came back reasonable reasonable but not great ninety eight. I think he deserves the shot to go longer and it sounds like as of today according to John Sadler gift box. He had to miss a workout so it seems unlikely he'll be ready for the Pacific classic. <hes> the connection seemed to be leaning towards the Pacific Classic Classic with Catalina Cruiser. I think you need to find out in the good news is it's early enough where if the mile and a quarter doesn't work you still have time to turn him back and get him ready for either the dirt mile for the Breeders Cup or the sprint. If you really wanted to get crazy but you have you have time to sort of plot accordingly. Accordingly take the shot there in that mile and a quarter race out of del Mar find out if you can do it if he can. Obviously you have plenty of options but <hes> I is GonNa do a heck of a lot better visually anyway the needed into San Diego. It was a little bit disappointed in the monmouth couple. More story battled back on the inside. What is there to say? I've been chasing Belle harbor. This is basically just gonNA sound like I'm. I'm rehashing terrible memories. <hes> I've been chasing Belle harbor over the past three starts <hes> and again. This is another instance. I thought he finally was home and he gets run down or gets sort of I've come back on down the inside by war story. It is what it is molly pitcher nothing more to add basically paid workout for midnight. Beast's who in my opinion ocean port <hes> only four horsfield visit Arrow he left really badly out of the gate. I suppose you could make the argument that cost him the race but at the same time I thought he had every opportunity to buy just Howard down the lane in the do so <hes> the matchmaker three Horsfield noth- nothing really bad there Ontario Colleen seek and destroy it to me. She never really looked all that comfortable until they got to the straight away and she was able to pull away makes me wonder what really was in that field for her to look as uncomfortable as she did throughout the majority of the run and still be able to just blow the doors off that field a just another one of those instances where <hes> in Chad you must trust because what's the point trying to beat them in some of these turf races <hes> Eddie read big from always hero big finish for Markey's water elman and I we go one two. I had markey's water. He had boase hero in that race. <hes> boase hero. I think the mile an innate that suits him much better than it does markey's water. I just the guy running too late and I said going into it coming out of that stakes preview <hes> when you watch markey's water don't let turn dissuade you. He's going to be basically under the whip rounding the attorney. Just doesn't get around very well. Once he gets straight away he finishes like a freight train a he's the kind of horse that I I think he could be a little bit sneaky if the choose to run in the Delaware the door the del Mar Handicap Mile and three eighths. I understand that he'd be the kind of horse I'd be fascinated as he shipped to a place I would buy where you have that just enormous ms stretch run and and maybe the mile or a mile and it's a little bit sharp for him but they do have longer races out in a mile and a half that long stretch to me that could be a great sort of advantage for horse like Markey's water as opposed to some of these other places big into connections do right by the Horse. There's another race at Woodbine the royal north impossibly wide trip for Alexandra <hes> and I just look at that and go with a better ride and a better trip. She's GonNa threaten in that race. She's not embarrassed at all <hes> losing by roughly two links right around there somewhere in that ballpark doc <hes> just an impossibly wide trip Friday. I just don't know why she was home so wide running that far turn choubey nothing really special to add they are nice from Golden Award <hes> while I feel like she probably needed the ranger problem. Take a step forward here in her second start off the bench keeping my nose first race since the Breeders Cup distaff shipping on for some time so there you have it some quick thoughts on steaks montage <hes> agree disagree. Let me know on Twitter Bernier underscore Matt or beneath the video player on Youtube. Let's take a look at the weekends best as far as buyers are concerned a two year old males <unk> basin in eighty six and a maiden special up at Saratoga two year old fillies on dirt fair maiden in ninety one and I keep mine I say on dirt the synthetic races are lumped into the main track area so this is a ninety one buyer for fair maiden in a maiden especial weight at Arlington Park which we obviously is a synthetic surface not necessarily a two year old males on grass three way tie. Please call me back Barocco and fantastic breeze sixty nine in a maiden special would bind to your old phillies on grass fly so pretty sixty eight intimates a special episode Toga three year old males. We spoke about him. maximum-security earns a one zero two in the Haskell three year old phillies first star Anglo Rana they tie with ninety two buyers one to maiden special down at del Mar the other one in the coaching club American oaks three year old males on Grass Halliday and eighty six hundred nine one one other than at Saratoga three-year-old phillies ingress seek and destroy we saw in that stakes montage the eighty six in the Ontario colleen older males on dirt again unfortunately for me wore story inbound Belle harbor they tie with one once and and the Monmouth Cup but obviously war stories the one that prevails older fillies mares on dirt we saw golden the war when the Shoe v with ninety three buyer older males on turf we saw boase hero win with an aid ninety eight buyer. Excuse me in the Eddie read and the older fillies and Mares on Grass Mamo anew with a ninety five winning the Kress at Saratoga and five and a half furlongs there you have it the weekends best as far as Beyer speed figure performances are concerned however you've been listening. Thank you for doing so youtube sound cloud. I tunes which I guess really be Apple. podcasts YouTube spotify YouTube soundcloud items video dot the DOT com spotify. I've got that thing memorized like clockwork. <hes> however you listen please rate review and subscribe <hes> really appreciated any questions comments concerns thoughts opinions.