Wed. 10/30 New Hampshire Opens Primary Filing

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welcome to the election ride home for Wednesday October Thirtieth Twenty nineteen. I'm your host Chris Higgins with a summary of election news. Today New Hampshire opens its primary Mary Filing period. And that's a lot of fun. The trump impeachment stuff in three minutes or less a new poll helps candidates in both the November and December. DNC The debates what that poll told us about the Republican Primary Moody's analytics attempts to predict the two thousand presidential election and the Pro Biden SUPERPAC back now officially exists. Here's what you missed today from the campaign trail today New Hampshire officially opened its primary filing period. Now you may ask what is that and why does that matter. That is precisely what I asked when I saw this float by desk as some kind of news. So here's the deal in New Hampshire. As we discussed a zillion times on this show is the first in the nation primary so that is cool and normal but because they have this special status they have turned the event of filing to be on the ballot in that primary into basically a public photo op for all the candidates. Come into this. One guy's office that a guy a secretary of State Bill Gardner. Who has been doing this for? I'm not kidding. Forty three years and they filed their paperwork. And it's a whole thing. The first candidate fire this year is Pete Buddha judge who showed up this morning so here is specifically how it works as detailed by Jaundice Dosso. WMU Our radio in New Hampshire. Quote Gardner will show them. The legendary desk donated by the family of the late State Representative Steven Bullock who authored the first primary law in nineteen thirteen. He'll give them a bit of historical perspective and he'll likely show them the poster he created for the two thousand. Twenty New Hampshire primary celebrating. The one hundred years have passed since the contest test became the first in the nation while the twenty twenty primary campaign has been underway for a year the firing period brings it into an even sharper focus. Now now it's for real. The next step will be for Gardner to set the date of the primary. He'll likely do that several weeks. After the close of the filing period around the end of the month Japan quote now look story actually goes on for a shockingly long time and it is well worth a read. It includes a photo of the bullock desk and that special poster. It also has a detailed interview with Gardner about this historic process but beyond that story includes an exhaustive list of who is expected it to show up to file their paperwork including specific dates and times like literally it says Bernie Sanders will show up tomorrow at eleven thirty. AM sharp sharp now beyond all that there is also a list of who has not said when they'll show up which really seems like public shaming. There is even the following amazing line regarding the filing times for Comma Harris and Cory Booker possibly colliding with another major candidate quote arrangements mints are being negotiated to ensure that vice president. Mike Pence and the two Democrats do not overlap in their filings. End Quote so look if you ever or click the link in the show notes in your life. This wine is up top just past all the social media. Stuff voters of New Hampshire. I salute you. You have earned this. This is awesome awesome next up a new segment limited to three minutes or less a quick update on the trump impeachment inquiry and other election-related stuff in the world of the sitting president. Let's get into it. The text of the resolution authorizing the impeachment hearing has been released the vote on this resolution still scheduled for tomorrow and the resolution doesn't have many surprises. It's in line with existing house procedures for impeachment inquiries and testimony in general one item that made headlines was that both the ranking democratic and Republican members of the Intelligence Committee can question witnesses for up to forty five minutes uninterrupted for as many rounds as they like before passing that questioning off to other committee members the two members would go one run after the other back and forth. Now part of this is already in the house rules for witness-questioning which allow for up to sixty minutes combined. The change here is ninety. Eight minutes combined for this preceding the procedures also allow Republicans to call witnesses but they have to be approved by the Democratic leadership again. That is already in the house rules else for this stuff. So it's not exactly news. One notable items of the proceedings will start being public where appropriate if this resolution passes so that would be the exchange given that much of what we reported on so far has been through leaks or prepared statements or other sources because the hearings have been private today to figures described by the Guardian as career diplomats testified about trump's attitude toward Ukraine. There Catherine Croft and Christopher Anderson reading from the Guardian here about what their testimony money means quote. Each witness seems to be helping to build a larger picture of president using foreign policy to try to advance his reelection prospects at a team mm-hmm of advisers who largely. Let him do it and quote coming up on Friday White House aide. Robert Blair is scheduled testify in the House as well. He was one of the many people on the Ukraine phone call and has testimony might clarify other accounts of that call and one follow up to yesterday's testimony is that Alexander s vind men testified. Hi that the summary of the Ukraine phone call released by the White House was not a transcript. Now we already knew that because it says right in the document that it is not a transcript but rather a reconstruction -struction based on notes but still having a witness who was on the call who actually took notes during the call saying the record of that call that has been released is is missing key details. Well that's potentially big but we do not know what vitamin said was missing from that summary so that remains a big question in mark yesterday opole from CNN. And the University of New Hampshire actually moved the needle for several candidates in terms of qualifying for upcoming DNC debates. The poll looked at New Hampshire. Primary voters specifically Ed who are as I've already stipulated awesome. Quick methodology note. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus four point one percent on the democratic side. Okay so how does this poll help. Candidates qualify well. Buddha judge has officially qualified for December because this poll gives him his fourth result there. He is now qualified for both upcoming upcoming debates. It also gave Gabbard her second qualifying poll for November and it gave three candidates their first qualifying coals. For December. Those those are Gabbard Klobuchar and Yang. Those three candidates still need three more and then they are on that December stage the other headline coming out of this poll. Oh was it had sanders. I twenty one percent Warren second at eighteen percent and then Biden third fifteen percent. The next candidate down own was Buddha judge at ten percent but the headline there was Biden being in third place in a crucial early voting state. The last time this particular poll was conducted elected was back in July now back then. Biden was in the lead at twenty four percent with worn and sanders tied for second nineteen percent each which in nat July poll was actually within the margin of error of that poll. Now in yesterday's poll Biden is within the margin compared to warrant so. This is not exactly a moment of panic for his campaign and we will look for confirmation and other polls of the state and when I didn't made roughly zero headlines. But I'M GONNA mention any way. Hey is Joe SESTAK. As reported a few weeks ago. He recently walked the length of the state. He is now at one percent in this latest poll compared in two zero in previous polls so it looks like that walk probably helped him now. That poll I just mentioned also asked Republicans about their primary and though those results didn't make huge headlines. I thought I'd tell you about them here. The margin region of air on the Republican side is plus or minus four point six percent and again we are just talking about the awesome New Hampshire primary voters so obviously the most important question turn is which of the four declared candidates a given Republican says they would vote for president. Trump has eighty six percent of that group. Bill Bill Weld has five percent mark. Sanford has one percent and Joe Walsh also has one percent. Interestingly three percent of the group said they'd vote for somebody who wasn't listed and only four percent said they didn't know or were undecided. So yeah this was a tough result for the non trump candidates the only possible silver lining. There is that New Hampshire is not a winner take all State for Republicans that means that a candidate who wins a percentage of the vote can actually actually get some delegates going into the convention. Unfortunately that percentage is ten so at the moment. None of the three challengers would actually get any eight New Hampshire delegates at the convention. Two weeks ago Moody's analytics released released. Its twenty twenty presidential election model within this. They run three mathematical models for predicting whether a given presidential candidate will win the general election. They've been doing this since. Nineteen Eighty naven correct in every race except one and that race happens to be twenty sixteen under all three models. Moody's Moody's uses trump is projected to win in twenty twenty in some cases by a landslide. However there is a fair amount of hedging of predictive bets going on here let's briefly walk through the three moody models? I is the pocket book model which relies on various consumer goods prices including gasoline and housing plus changes which is an income for workers. Second is the stock market model which relies mainly on a forecast of how the S. and P. Five hundred is going to do and third is the unemployment employment model which mainly relies on the unemployment level now as with any projection. These models are all subject to change based on a variety of factors for instance. The model could just be wrong. Moody's actually points to this in their introduction saying that in two thousand sixteen their model may have failed because it doesn't consider or the nature of the actual candidates who are running at it noted that Clinton and trump were not what they consider and I quote generic candidates the two big factors. That could swing. This thing are the economy and voter turnout now. Moody's does attempt to predict both of these but they admit that sometimes that is tough to do new reading from the report quote. The top of the business cycle is a difficult place from which to forecast and the economic outlook is filled with substantially more uncertainty certainty than usual and quote. It goes on to suggest that if there is a moderate recession in the coming year Democrats win according to an average of the Moody's models models and then there's the matter of voter turnout reading again from the report quote under the assumption that the non incumbent share of turnout in Twenty Twenty County that is Democrats and independents where to match its historical maximum across all states only the Pocketbook model predicts a victory victory for trump. Under such a high turnout scenario the Democratic Party nominee would win handily under the stock market model and by the skin of their teeth under the unemployment employment model. An average of the three sets of model results suggests that if turnout of non incumbent voters twenty twenty matches the historical high. Hi Across states then Democrats would win a squeaker and quote so unusually high turnout or a downturn in the economy could flip the script ripped so if you're rooting for trump. Hope for a normal turn out and a stable economy if you're on the other side maybe don't root for a bad economy because that tends ends to harm people but maybe do work on voter turnout and and last today that Super Pac. We've been discussing since last week. That will support. Joe Biden has now officially been created. It is called unite the country and its treasure is Larry Larry Raschke now raspy also happens to have worked on two previous Biden presidential campaigns so he is a familiar face within the Biden world. Writing for politico. Oh Theodore Meyer and Maggie. Severin's added some context quote. The same SUPERPAC previously went by a different name for the people pack that it existed only briefly in April shortly before Biden launched his run for president at the time Matt Tompkins Democratic fundraiser. told the Hill. You won't win in two thousand nine hundred twenty by unilaterally disarming but Biden senior adviser. Keep betting field shut down for the people packs buzz when she replied to a tweet about the group group with a brief statement. Joe Biden does not welcome support from Super Pacs for the people. Pack went quiet shortly afterward and never reported raising or spending money the filing for unite the country which was first reported by Bloomberg News marks the official beginning of an outside effort to boost the former vice president a move that could raise and spend unlimited sums of money and give the cash-strapped campaign a boost and quote. There's actually quite a bit more in that politico story about who rask. He is as he's been involved in Biden campaigns for a long long time so lincoln the show notes as always check head out if you are curious well that is it for one more episode of the election ride home. I have been your host Chris Higgins you can always I find me on twitter at Chris Higgins okay so we got a lot of feedback about the Robert. Caro books and part of me was filled with that odd feeling and I feel like there might be a German word for this. Yes I feel like this is something. I'm forgetting that feeling when you finish a book that you have both completed something but you also feel a sense of loss because there is no more book to to be had and that's kind of how I felt at the end of this book working by Robert Caro and that is by far his shortest book so my wife had some leftover audiobook the credits for audible so I looked up the power broker and it is sixty six hours long and you know what I clicked it. I downloaded it. I have not yet begun gun my sixty six hour odyssey might need to sign up for some time on like a container ship or something to make the mental space for all of that but still it beckons

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