New Hampshire Just Kicked Up a Notch
It's Tuesday February. Eleventh and Americans are finally voting. We start here. What you want about Iowa no one actually cast a ballot there with the day that all changes? You wouldn't tell me before it. Can you tell me now. Who did you vote for Mike Bloomberg from the tiny town that have already closed is there polls. After the attack ad from Biden I swang to peak to the candidates were still racing to convince. Skeptics view are tired of the extremes. The north of the Non Tanto home with me. It's primary day and a quarter million New Hampshire voters or about to shape the Democratic nomination from ABC News. This is a special condition of start here. I'm Brad Milkey. Everyone just super quiet. It he's holding his watch. He's watching ten seconds. He says he's counting down the three to one over. The State of New Hampshire likes to call itself first in the nation but really these the very first primary results. The country gets people are taking their ballots in the voting booth. Right now in New Hampshire is voting at the stroke of midnight. The residents of Dixville Notch New Hampshire filled out their ballots. This is the fifth voter going in by twelve. O Two they were done. The precinct officially closed the votes will re nineteen seventy-two my first time. That's Tom Tillotson. whose father meal started the Dixville Tradition back in nineteen sixty Thomas now the elections moderator for the area? Yeah he's the guy you heard talking to the room earlier. He's wearing a tweed coat and a bow tie. This goes bad in some way. It's all on me. People hear the first tell. Oh you yes. This is a publicity stunt yes this fabled ballot room sits on the land of a defunct resort. Yes some of these. so-called residents don't actually live here year round and don't forget it's only five votes but there is an advantage to be had here think about it no one reports statewide results until normal polling sites close. That's like seven. PM meaning whoever wins midnight boating gets nineteen hours of free publicity great headlines and as these votes came in. We quickly learned that. This year was a shocker road in Mike Bloomberg there's one registered Republican in Dixville Notch. But he doesn't vote for trump. He issues a write in vote from from Michael Bloomberg. I feel the Republican Party has left me on the democratic side. If they're literally telling these up on the blue piece of paper Bernie Sanders gets vote. Brundige gets a vote but once again is democratic vote for my Bloomberg Bloomberg gets a write in vote and then another and as they bring out. This big board tally the results. You realize one book for Gag. One vote for Sanders it and to writing for Mike Bloomberg Michael Bloomberg. The Guy who hasn't campaigned in New Hampshire just took the lead in both the Democratic Democratic and Republican primaries. So I went up to our guy. Tom and I asked him wouldn't tell me before it. Can you tell me now. Who'd you vote for Mike Bloomberg and why is that I just feel he's the guy that has the best policies that I used to be Republican. Used to be Republican again. And that's what Tillerson reveals to me. He did call you. Do Call Me and you talked. He called several of and talk to us in and answered answered questions. But he didn't. That's right state known for surprises in a state. Mike Bloomberg hasn't campaigned and he just made a play for Dixville Notch and it worked so five I boats down two hundred eighty thousand potential democratic votes. Today let's get to those. I'm walking in a snowstorm to rally on the only one stupid enough to be out in this weather. The vast majority of coverage you're gonNA hear is centered on the southern part of New Hampshire which makes sense. That's where most people in the state live. But if you're a campaign you've been thinking there are still impressionable. Voters of in a place like Plymouth New Hampshire. I look for the best candidate for the job Chris Cowan. WHO's it's been planning on voting for a Republican governor? Bill Weld Bruin. Indeed Chris Construction Guy Homebuilder. He's with his daughter. Rose how are you by the way the thing is is he knows he's throwing his vote away on someone like Bill Wells. Donald Trump is going to win the nomination. It's not really question. So I'm looking forward to November and who might be able to bridge the gap between Republicans Democrats and all of us in New Hampshire. Most people are undeclared that means a primary day. You can walk into a booth and vote for either party to Chris's brought rose to meet and greet with Pete Buddha judge. I've been watching him but it's only the last week or so that he's really Piqued my interest. This is the type of voter Buddha judge. Joe Joe Biden Amy Klobuchar had been courting from months but right now only two of them actually have the wind at their back. After the attack ad from Biden I swang to peak global shaw from me right. She did really well in the debate on Friday. I've always been on Biden and as I'm talking to voters ABC's as Mary. Bruce shows up Dr. She's usually stuck in DC covering congress not this week Samaria. We've just wrapped up this judge event. You actually get to speak Sabrina. Judge I mean what are you seeing from his campaign at this point what strikes me is really interesting is that he clearly sees this now as a two person race. Here in New Hampshire was talking about either a revolution or status quo and there's nothing in between To me that leaves most of us out at the very moment we could be building the historic majority already that will not only defeat. Donald Trump hopeless move into the future noticed in his remarks he used to actually mention Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden. Now he just named check sanders he clearly is trying to frame this. As he's the moderate alternative Bernie Sanders is the progressive and the two of them. By the way have really been duke it out. I mean they are going. After each other than when there is a hole in Senator Sanders plan financially. That's bigger than the entire size of the United States. Economy I I think it's an example of the kind of politics that frustrates people big promises and not a lot behind. It is taking on P. Buddha judge issue of money and politics that change is not going to be coming from somebody who gets. That's a lot of money from the CEO's of the pharmaceutical industry slamming him suggesting that he's beholden to to rich people running against some guys Buddha church among all of us who have raised campaign funds from over forty billion forty billion and we asked about that over two million in contributions have helped my campaign reached this point. I think the average is under forty bucks and I'm the only person on those debate stages who is not a millionaire or a billionaire but the question his whether any of these attacks make a difference people actually go to vote Still undecided yourselves. Toss up I want to go with someone that is going to be a uniter divider. It's time for maybe a younger person to come in Kinda shake things up a little bit statewide Ben as we go into the selection. I mean would the dynamics that you have your I'll what's interesting. You're you're now in this new far more contentious phase of the campaign. This guy's not a Barack Obama. I'm not Barack Obama and neither is he. It's clear that Bernie Sanders genders is leading right now. P Buddha judges certainly still optimistic that he can also have a chance at that top slot who then comes in third if you are tired of the extremes in the north and the not taty of a home with me including jar has a lot of momentum after a really strong debate performance on Friday Elizabeth. Warren needs strong. Showing our number one job is to to beat Donald Trump. Whoever our Democratic nominee is one hundred percents and? She's hoping that that near home. State advantage might help or pull that off when you're running against two people who are neighboring senators. You know the deal and then of course. There's Joe Biden so I I think it is an uphill fight. Admitting he's not GonNa do well here. It's like you can feel at these things like there's interest for sure in your piece in your Amy Klobuchar question assistance. who gets the most in terms actually gonNA get votes out of Thanks Mary thanks for head neck. Victim on start here. We talked about the voters. Vied emotions coursing through the state. Did all that. It's crunch some actual numbers if you don't know your numbers you don't know your business serious entrepreneurs and finance teams run on net suite by Oracle the world's number one cloud business system. The nets sweet offers a full picture of all your finances all in one place in real time right from your phone or desktop schedule your free demo right now and receive their free. Guide had seven key strategies to grow your profits at Netflix dot com slash integrate. Set Up Your Free Demo and get your free guide today at Netflix DOT com slash integrate. Some here at Saint Anselm Colleges Institute of Politics. I'm here with nate. Silver the editor in chief of our partner fivethirtyeight and we talked a few weeks ago. You created a model that it didn't just forecast. The Iowa Caucuses Hampshire primary. You're trying to forecast who wins the whole thing hol nomination people are now finally about to fill out actual ballots. CASSANDRA around and weird groups like you doing caucuses actual normal voting does. The forecast look different now than it did a week or two ago. Oh for sure. We've seen Joe Biden decline after a fourth place. Finish in Iowa gorgeous getting going you gotta get one thousand nine hundred delegates or more and everyone gains from that Bernie Sanders. Who did well in Iowa has risen in our forecast come from England when you got the most votes who usually win the election? Chech- has risen Although he's a long way to go to kind of have a broad coalition so another win here would help him a lot also the chance of there. Being a contested convention has risen the nobody claims it. Outright we're clear. Outright because Biden was the leading candidate going in and he's taken ahead Bernie was the second leading candidate at eight. He kind of did about as well as you would expect. But maybe not better than you would expect in so so new Hampshire is pivotal for for Bernie's campaign certainly where If he were to have a a big win doesn't have to be gigantic. Let's say he wins by a solid like seven point eight point margin right that we put on a path to be the front runner. You'll have one one and behalf states. Let's call it probably Kenny for Nevada as well which is another caucus maybe not South Carolina. But you know it's kind of the path that Bernie would have wanted further down the list. I you know we've talked about Biden and Bernie Buddha judges clearly having this moment. What about Elizabeth? Warren any closure has been in single digits and a lot of state polls. Here UH HAVE WE SEEN MOVEMENT NOT FOR WARREN. We built a campaign to go the distance. which is kind of what happens? When he knows she finished third place in Iowa? You have rival rival candidates finishing ahead of her voting onto. Yes I am. You know who you're voting. I'm still undecided. itself a toss up. I mean probably feed or Warren between those two but there Arve oaters. Who are Warren Slash? Buddha Chech- swing voters more college. Kid voters they might go toward Pete after Iowa and Bernie kind of being a co-winner of Iowa they might go to him him potentially and so she's gotten a little bit squeezed and would really benefit from a surprise. What are you looking for in primary night? As far as are there certain numbers certain results that are make or break moments for campaigns. And is it more about. The percentages are more about what place you finish what it's not for me to say right because it's all it's all the spin in how voters interpret and how the media interprets it right. Look if anyone other than Bernie Sanders Wins New Hampshire. Then that's a big deal and then most likely person went apart from Bernie is people at a church are one shot our one chance to defeat Donald trump they would make the process very God. Topsy Turvy that might up. The chance of contests convention obviously would help the chance of a Buddha Chech- nomination right but that would be pretty formidable. Obviously if you did have a at this point point somewhat miraculous comeback by Warren or Biden or closer that would change things a ton but those are are less likely events. Did the debate this past Friday night. I mean I know these things happen over lots of time. We saw a Buddha Jed surge. Starting it feels like yesterday but really over the last several weeks. Did the debate this past Friday. Does that have any effect on There's some evidence that it helped club a little bit every step of the way. We have defied expectations which maybe is not great news for because they tend to be the same voters we also did polling ourselves Ipsos and we asked people to rate voters to rate how the candidates did and how their impressions changed and generally Buddha Chechen sanders also did well on the club chart so they're kind of three big winners in that debate. The loser in our poll was Joe Biden. Who got quite poor marks especially in front runner from voters after the in his debate performance? Pacific Yeah Yeah. That's what I'm trying to figure out. If Joe Biden like in certain policies third in certain polls he's a narrow fourth or even fifth. It's how much does that matter under for. A guy who clearly is like well we're GonNa see doing South Carolina. I'm not sure it matters that much. I mean it is more important how it doesn't South Carolina I should say we have very little polling in South Carolina very little pulling in Nevada very little national polling actually since Since Iowa took place and so. It's a little hard to gauge right. Now whether Biden has local a problem or a national problem New Hampshire traditionally has supported the neighboring senators or candidates. Running for president and Bernie one here by twenty points last time. Elizabeth Elizabeth is a Massachusetts if he comes back and I mean they're always scenarios where Where Bernie Bernie and Buddha Chech- want some combination in New Hampshire they were not supposed to be Biden's strongest states and that's fair? They were not involved in finishing fourth place with fifteen percent. But you never know right if he's doing poorly early with liberal whites but still doing well with white moderates and with African Americans than you could still be very much alive in South Carolina Nate Silver. Thanks so much thank you Senator Sanders. When the apple has won top for the first time we say to that or fine but winning elections were important? You heard me. I'd say there's still a lot. We don't know about how voters feel about. All this. Outside of New Hampshire Day changed. Their opinion will shortly after nate. Nice spoke a new national poll. Okay now from Quinnipiac just out this evening. On the eve of the New Hampshire primary showing shakeup at the top in the Quinnipiac poll Bernie Sanders now in the lead for the Democrats nationally in this bill comes out. Reporters who covers the Biden campaign. full-time calls me John for hovering near where are you all. Currently I am About ten minutes away away from hearing Joe Biden. Speak here in Manchester New Hampshire on the eve of the primary and he says you know these top line numbers are not great like no one wants to fall from first to second Bernie Sanders. Now has the national no lead the way more concerning he says is the stuff buried down below. I think the biggest thing that should be just a flashing Red Siren for the Biden campaign is to numbers in in this poll. One is his support. Among African American voters which campaign has said throughout this entire. Primary is are the bedrock of his support. He dropped about twenty points points in this. One poll over two weeks was support among African American voters. And you saw Mike Bloomberg really pick up a lot of those voters so You know that's one on really flashing red light for him and the other is with moderate and conservative. Democrats another part of Biden space. He lost a lot of support there. He's only winning them by one point. Originally I I had my support behind Biden and now I'm not so sure today my husband and I both said I think I'll vote for aiming so if he if he has a bad result here In the primary and then these numbers hold we are looking at a real struggle for the Biden campaign going towards South Carolina into Super Tuesday next month so this is a big Dave for all these campaigns. They're all gonNa tell you they don't care about polls trust me. They do but just remember nothing in the state is given right now. One eight five people told pollsters this weekend. They are still undecided. Take Norm I meet him Dunkin donuts. He's eighty four years old military veteran. All he knows here is he doesn't like Donald Trump. So one candidate down Chris. I don't know what the Hell's the job and yet norm knows he's definitely gonNa vote for someone. I'm too old roles. Make up my mind and I forget five minutes so I won't say anything until I get there you know. Pick somebody and one last thing. When I left Dixville Notch I went back to my hotel? Miss part of the state it's all INS and BNB. So as I arrive at mine. I'm greeted by none other than the protectors of another midnight. Voting Tradition Sonia Shelton and her husband husband. Charlie live in Millfield New Hampshire literally the next town over and it's bigger than Dixville which isn't saying much there is twenty two people voting in Millfield this year and the total population of Millfield is twenty-five metropolis. Compared to experts we are and milks field hosts its own midnight voting event which dates say is the original one as you listen to them. You can kind of feel this rivalry history Austria's over here on this side of the notch. According to Millfield Lor they start voting at midnight in one thousand nine hundred fifty two the first Dixville starts in one thousand nine hundred sixty the plan is they say they'll switch the honors every four years. Only mills field never got back to Tillerson went for the pop circumstance. In just a few years ago Sonia host host government functions and our living room. Is the town hall for Mills Field Brad. Discovers the history of meals field voting an old time magazine article they decide to revitalize it and now reporters come to her town. Her towns boats are generating news. I get emotional right now brand. You know about being poor poor country girl and put in the spotlight that I have been put into and last night the votes came in in meals field. Amy Klobuchar got two votes. Everyone else got one over in. Hart's location the other town that does midnight voting in closure what's six boats meaning with eight votes this morning. Amy Klobuchar is leading the New Hampshire primary. Okay that I went to school. I have the reason for you not to go to be an upset. Hey listen this is democracy in action. It is a big day and of course we will have all the results for you as they come in tonight live on. ABC News Dot Com or the ABC News. At I'm Brad Milkey New Hampshire. I'll see you tomorrow era.