President-Elect Joe Biden


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The force of decency the forces of fairness to marshal the science and the forces of hope the great battles of our time the banner control the virus the batmobile prosperity the battle. Secure your family's healthcare. The battle achieve racial justice and root out systemic racism in this country. So there you have it. We've got a new president. There's news forty six president of the united states. Yeah something happened way. What yet. I tried to tell you guys the pay attention. This was going to be a big week. Oh actually everybody's been. I don't know if you've been getting these These messages about where's hacks on tap. Why aren't you back and so on. It was my secret plan to make sure that we waited long enough that some of these states came in the way. they said. they said they were going to. So we didn't look like as big a bunch of idiots. We might have earlier in the week now. Your true. I actually two days ago. I'm going to reveal this now in a world exclusive to call my old friend. Senator vince famo- from south philadelphia zuma who a hundred thirty seven convictions. Yes he added printouts of The is said vance. Warm up the caddy. We may need you. Because i'm not gonna look like an idiot after ohio and florida pennsylvania so We put the machinery to work and now thank god. We have a new president. Now gibbs what happened in north carolina. i'm gonna try to help you wiggle out of that production. Do not let him do that to you. This is a classic debate. Say i think who predicted texas in ohio and i frequent. I didn't i predicted florida and ohio. Wrong wrong you are with me on florida you kind of lord me into that way. I didn't follow down in texas and the listeners need to understand that if you multiply the gap between trump and biden in north carolina eight. You probably still. Don't get the margin that Murphy was wrong in just ohio. And let's just not going to bring up florida. I florida one footnote. I got. I got a call from the world referee association trying to sort through and they have adjusted the dade county returns if obama biden hadn't opened communist cuba and it turns out. And we're in a ten thousand point race so gibbs it still on you and ex. When did you find that out. That obama had access. Yeah someone should have told you that before you got into it. Somebody's told biden. Anyway i am. I am glad that we waited long enough to make a few of our predictions right. We were thin on georgia georgia. I told you guys now we have actually. I don't think as we're speaking that arizona's been called but it will be it will be. Yeah yes it will be We didn't even talk about nevada. We didn't think it would be nevada. Sarah nevada last time in its close. You know. close again this too. We'll see where i think. He'll end up beating trump by more than hillary did yada to there so But but overall overall like a gazillion people voted a probably over. What over a hundred and fifty million. It will be when all at once california new york and all that may be close of man one sixty and and look let's be let's be clear about it. Donald trump Know joe biden will have gotten the most votes of any presidential candidate in american history. Donald trump will be second to none huge turn up almost two points better than he did for years ago. And i think you know despite won't even get into the polling quite yet. But i mean just the idea of after watching four years of this i i think one of the reasons democrats were so apoplectic about nine nine or nine thirty on election night was they couldn't figure out how in the world after four years this there were more trump supporters but in reality there were well. Here's my thing. Donald trump was a master at whipping up and galvanizing his base. And we saw that on on tuesday. It's just what we also saw that. He was a master whipping up and galvanizing the opposition and there were more of them and that's been his promise. Murphy you've been saying this for a year and a half You know it's based first base last base always and he ultimately he. He paid a price for it. You know i totally agree. There's also i mean you know. We all made the mistake of believing poles but the bottom line is the polarized countries. Here to stay biden's incredible lead will be partially driven by very blue places trump's by very red places but in the competitive states it was pretty competitive now kudos to biden for pulling it off but they're clearly a bunch of republicans who thought you know. I can't take trump anymore. Joe doesn't seem that bad But i'm gonna hang on to my my local are Just because i'm not sure where biden's going to land on an issue stuff so in that's the road looked biden is better equipped by temperament background relationships to navigate. This divided thing than anybody else and you know. He made three promises. The unite the country handle covid and get the economy going again in an all three of those. I think you can find some bipartisan support. At least in the voters even in the our world and definitely in the indie world. And that'll that'll that'll be a pressure that mcconnell hanging on depending on the georgia runoffs. We're talk about by a vote Half that caucus will feel it. The other half will be often new hampshire republic side yet. way trump. when you're up there yeah well. That's that's coming to yeah. Trump is gonna take. We've talked about this before. Trump is gonna take his show and move it down the street. You know and But he's not going away You know. I heard a lot of ego will you know. Will he concede will no. He's not going to concede he's going to maintain you saw you. He tweeted this morning. I won this election by a lot and then set went off to the golf course gonna file. Yeah murphy our twenty twenty four. They're already working on the logo. Let's get even but that said i you know we're have plenty to talk about down the road. I think that a fish out of the freezer for two weeks. I'm not sure he'll ever be what he was in the party. Got a lot of young guys doing the trump music that would like him to rot away so they can make their move. So we're seeing. It's going to be game of thrones and the republican party. So what do you make of the fact that in addition to being little off i mean i got. We'll see where the final race lands when the votes from california come in in What march How long did for a lucky Way we said we'll see when that comes in whether the How much he binds stretches the lead. Because you're right robert. he's i think what. what is he about three and a half up right now. Three app past five He could stretch it to five. Yeah i think. I think it will. I do think we have to be careful. There are a lot of generalizations about the first hour of election night. That aren't going to hold in a week or a month or half a year Ends i think that there's gonna be some very interesting stuff about all that that goes on the republican party other than trump and and and somewhat arguing. I mean might. You may be one of them that you can include this in this. The republican party itself had a really good night. Yeah no there ain't no coattails yeah it was like two different elections if there were co tells you know. They were trump's In that he whipped up a big turnout in these republican areas. The and you know there was there were at least half a half dozen state legislative chambers. That were thought to be in contention. Republicans retained all of them in a redistricting year. Republicans rebuffed a the democratic. What looked to be like a pretty good path to take the senate susan collins produced. She proved herself to be really really. Resilient hell yes. I pitch them a bumper sticker by the way for their supporters. Senator susan collins next time try. Kryptonite is amazing in maine what she pulled off. Yeah trump's that state by a lot and and she ended up winning by pretty good margin. Yep it's remarkable in this environment that you can have ticket splitters. It's it's really you know it which is kind of a good thing for politics. I'm for i. Didn't i thought we'd sort of seen the last of it and and she didn't. She didn't squeak by she. She was fairly convinced. I'll tell you she was someone who you know when you when you were in the as you know robert in the obama white house and you needed to try to find a republican you know you would be the first place is she's going to be even more important now because You could depending what happens in georgia. We ought to talk about that but You could have a fifty one. Forty nine senate and So she romney. I'm rakowski senators. Who are going to hold a lot of sway their for biden's program but my question to you guys is why why did why did republicans do as well as they did. Even as trump lost while mix one. Big turnout big turnout. Across the board and more you know more balanced her split states at that help. Both sides can cancel itself out and ours. Were not blown away too. I think people kinda put trump in escrow you know they thought all right we got got the trump reality show. We're going to pull the plug on. But i don't really know other than biden. Who seems somebody i can deal with. I don't know what the rest of these these are really for. So i'm not gonna kinda rush down the Rush down the thing here now. We all had the kind of smarty pants analysis and i fell fourteen. Two of well people are going to republish. Punish the republicans because they were too nice to trump and a now i think people kinda went to fundamentals. Trump's an asshole gotta make a change. Can't run covid but Other adam stand with my team and a lot of them were incumbents. And i'll tell you you know. Most incumbents win incumbents do have an advantage and the senate and comets lot of him switched to kind of a senator pothole campaign to close on counted a ton of that The kind of run like mini governors glue themselves to the states and That made it easy. And the iowa's and places where there was some of that messaging to the hang on. Yeah that big turnout. That that that i mean. Essentially that rising tide didn't get enough for trump because the campaign was singularly about him. But that rise really did take a lot of Seats that whether their house seats senate seats that the democrats thought they could either Protect or win and The just got swamped. And i i think a lot of places you'll see. Democrats got probably the vote that they thought they needed to get. They just didn't think that republicans would get nearly the vote that they got. And i think that in the end swamped a lot of people. What about the Idea murphy that Like i you know. I i like a more than like. I really admire nancy. Pelosi think she's brilliant brilliant and historic legislative leader But there was the back and forth on the stimulus that never happen. Yeah you can argue. The ds were a little too clever by half on that in the house thinking that they win the crash if it was a game of chicken and You know maybe not The other thing. I think i think i think you're under something there. I think the i didn't see enough media to know what the dem congressional message was other than we hate trump to. I don't think it was as clear as eighteen when it was a referendum on pre existing conditions and. I think that might have hurt him. A little bit too I think that's right. 'cause i think the truth is in a world of trump. You're never going to have a a. You're never gonna series of races that that devolve down to policy battles right. You're going to have it. It's it's it's almost singularly personality the You mentioned that he won Independence by fourteen He also won moderates by which is the largest cohort in the country By two to one where with liberals and conserve their more conservatives but liberals and conservatives went to each corner biden. We spent a lot of time here doubting him as a candidate in the primaries when he was staggering through Iowa new hampshire And it didn't look like he could finish this race and everybody always. You always look good when you win. You know. I always say you never smart. You look when you and you're never as dumb as you look you lose but But you know they had a message that was the right message and they had to endure the primaries but in general it worked You know the soul of america and the character contrast was really what powered this thing. He he understood or they understood. You know donald and the rest anzalone and Gentlemanly dylan they all deserve. A big needed done a salute. I think they knew. Ron clean and shetty That good campaigns are amplifiers of the right contrast you know and that amplify what's true and biden was the anti-trump as far as empathy. No drama back to normal No more chaos and they got the card they had and they played it every day. And i don't think there was a single day in the campaign. That biden was in real trouble of losing kind of the control of that And the fact they manage their cash well and could never get out muscled on advertising after the convention was great too so i i give them a big salute i think if they had a time machine looking at some of these states bet they wish they'd played middle class economics little harder because they let trump sells tickets there but other than that and you know dade county which tactical It's hard to find anything that i think. A big salute to those guys. I think they were calm and smart and they had a plant. He added any two things that i've said before but i'll say it again. I think one is. We've talked about a remarkable message discipline the ability to draw back from his announcement speech. I bet will be pretty heavy You know have that sort of message discipline And to get it right. And i think you know i've said this before as well used to say this a lot in obama that Particularly as we were thinking about running and and obama was thinking about running is y- you know you don't pick the moment the moment picks you and i think joe biden is just perfect for the moment. Yeah whether it is incredibly seventy forty seven years into his career cry and you and you know they're not going to finish well and it is one of those things you know you you. He he's probably looked at the calendar hundred times and thought they were better there. This was the moment for him to do something. This was the moment to run and in reality it was this time that his persona what he stood for his values what he talked about what carried the moment. And it's right for the moment and is is i. I think he he comes into office with more challenges than any president elect in nearly a century. Let me Bring us to one sidebar topic before we can abandon the rear view mirror and then start looking forward. Gazette latte to happen but i think one of the reasons that you guys were so horribly embarrassed by predictions was and you want okay and making me we. We believe polling. Because we've all been doing this. A long time and generally polling is pretty helpful but this time it it it it it was off and so what do we think about that. I'm going to start with one caveat to Dr david hill. The pollster who first brought the rolling stones to alabama and. I've worked with a lot one of the best. He an interesting note after the election. The rolling stones to alabama. Yeah as a young rock concert promoter grad student. He did he. Yeah he's got the most interesting background of any who wouldn't trust his numbers like that. But here's the thing When he's not moving apps he's all right all right. Let me get. The political science jokesters. His initiative polling was dead on his candidate. Polling wasn't and. I'll bet if you look around that's going to be true in a lot of places which indicates beyond sampling and trying to model turnout and all that all the challenges. There's something going on where the old compact Were people in. The pollster had an honest conversation in the trump era. Maybe not. it's a great question. I don't know the answer because it's interesting. If you look at some of the regional polling like some of the stuff in the upper midwest was pretty good. Some of the upset in the upper midwest was terrible. Right in minnesota was was was pretty good. You know let's not forget washington post. Abc good pollsters. Right ed wisconsin seventeen. Maybe maybe they maybe they thought they were watching. Badgers football game and not like a poll. But i don't know. But i think we've somebody's got to figure out what in the world's going on with it because quite frankly david when you read me these numbers in the exit poll. You might as well be reading me. Tomorrow's lottery numbers. I just don't have any real faith that we know. I think i don't have a good sense of this election for a few months until there's a lot more analysis done of kind of what really happened and who really voted. Because i just i'm not going to believe you know murphy. Got suckered into believe believing all that stuff He made and so you know. I don't wanna get gullible in these I do have tomorrow's lottery numbers here by the way. Let me get them to. This would be the cook county lottery. I would say to. I mean i hope that at some point you know. I mean look and you'll point this out. I'll get it before you do. I did send you a lot of polls when they came out but yeah but and we talked about a lot of polls on the phone every day but man. We've got to have a presidential election where it isn't just a coverage of the polls each day because it just agree you don't learn anything except we say that every four years. How about exit. Polls can we talk about those. Yeah but first altogether. hello iowa one-two-three apologies and is semi out. That night i was very sorry. Almost immediately Very few is right right on it in iowa. We we we were we were. We were wrong. And she's still. She's still gold standard of iowa polling and celtic. Got it right. That turned out to be not a close race. Did anybody pick of the three d. We none of us picked. I no no no no that i would have had a very very good record. But for following murphy. Yeah yeah yeah north carolina. Don't worry acts. i'm working florida it's in. We've we've overcome this obama problem in miami. Why are there So but north carolina that was a look the shockers were susan collins who defied everything of normalcy in in polling in st panel. That if you really close to your state and if you know especially small state. I relate outs matter. He was looking good there. And tell us at real trouble. But north carolina across the board. Kinda was another one where the data was wrong. In it it hiccup back the other way. Probably a huge role turn out. Yeah so just before you go too. Far down the road on it relates to the You know To the polling we We all expected a jain. Ormuz gender gap. There was a big gender gap but it was no bigger than four years ago. It was thirteen points. We didn't i didn't necessarily see men basically even which is what the exit poll had. Now let's think about this for a second. That can't be right if well if women were up. Thirteen men can't be even or biden. Would've won by there. Were more women voting than men. I think the thing to do is we got you know. Send some whiskey. Door friends at edison and who are who are listeners. By the way. Hi gang at edison And re wait the exit polls to reality and then we're going to know what happened. Yeah so ira Because on this polling on this polling issue before the election in white non college women were thirty nine percent for biden sixty for trump that is improvement over four years ago. when I think hillary got twenty seven. I it was a six point improvement but it wasn't the kind of gigantic improvement that some of the polls predicted so the the notion of a shy trump voter which is the term that pollsters have developed. People who were for trumpet. Didn't want tell poster they were for trump. Maybe there's some to it. Yeah i think so. Is that initiative. Delta's interesting to me. Yeah you know because you don't you don't get in a fight with anybody over where you aren't proposal j yeah. I was infuriated by proposal. Jay but into a fight over prop twenty eight the other day. Maybe we get rob farm in edison. After they've waited that might be a good conversation to have consists is an interesting electorate that gave us response. Well it interesting that after the polling mistakes of twenty sixteen and and all the thought that went into recalibrating them. It's likely you up four or five percent that we've got a pulling error at least equal to what we had in twenty sixteen if not slightly greater and so usually you can talk. You know you. that'd be a four four percent on both the national and the state. I mean at least last time the national stuff was pretty close and then the terribly bad state polling wasn't nearly as good. I think there's clearly a big problem that somebody's gotta figure out just to be clear. You know the the famed pollsters that were going to look at and find the trump voters. They didn't do too. well either. You know one other footnote on this polling thing. I think were move on to the future. At usc center for the political future. Check us out online. We did this big panel back poll and you know we had a ten points. My our friend. Bob shrum was you know couldn't have been happier. I thought oh. I've got this figured out. It's only seven points while we did an experimental thing where some scientists from europe or over at our institute. And i would name them but i would mangle their names but they did the social circle thing like what are your friends talking about. Who do you think. They're vote for blah blah. They had a four four and a half. The four point eight point race much tighter I think there's a future in some of that too. it's interesting we published it. All people can take a look murphy. How meeting listen to them. When you're making your predictions shrimp called me. All worked up and said you believe it. They just put out a press. Release four point. Some biden online too But now that we now we're looking at it at there. There may be some but you also don't know post trump if everything calms down a little if that problem will start to melt away. There's a lot of problems that are going to start to melt away now. He's got brother. Well let's talk about that. Let's talk about it because first of all incredible seen The race was called this morning. Just this outpouring of people into the streets and look. I think one of the things that happened in this race is that as trump became meaner and more dislike -able to a lot of folks biden became more likable. And i think there is you know. He ended up with a favourable rating from voters. They liked him him. And i have no doubt that the people went out Were you know. Basically people who really liked by boa brought them to. The streets wasn't biden. What brought them to. The streets was trump. Yeah the joy of goodbye like the you know. Ding dong the witch is dead. Kinda thing all over the country But now biden's the dog that caught the car and a big stack of problems ahead Though i'll tell you. I was hearing some of the cable. Hot air artists current. What a participated. One of those checkable. Yeah i was gonna say we're all union self hating bloviating. Well yeah but we're in. The sub local of the bloviating is eventually done. Something in politics like mobile haven't And it was interesting because all this talk about okay and we're getting to the who controls the senate. I think you know as conservatives got my concerns about the democratic policy agenda. I'm happy because the first thing biden can do all by himself and he's totally equipped to do it is restore the old bipartisan consensus and foreign policy fix the atlantic alliance. Play the trade things smart. No yahoo ism Punish putin for misbehavior and in that happens in a day and that is hugely important. So you know regardless of who runs the senate that that is going to happen and i think frankly the republicans are going to support him in about ninety percent of it. So that's one big win out of the box. But i was gonna ask you that question murphy. Which is i think. I don't disagree at all. That biden will do all those things. The question is will will will republicans on those issues revert. Back to the mean. Oh yeah you know privately the number one thing particularly the senate ours the house guys you know they think afghans cat You know if they went to college. It's a blanket the steeled arthur finkelstein joke but it in the senate guys. All privately been horrified by a lot of the the national security decision. Making when the president ignores everybody does so. I think that's i mean there will be differences but it'll be nothing like the train wreck we've had trump and that's good. I have to say. I agree with you. And i think it's important but We're in the middle of a pandemic their deep economic problems a by had a pretty robust economic plan He's gonna have to pass a stimulus. Because i doubt that anything will happen with With trump in the white house now and he's going to be measured he's gonna be measured on some of these. I mean i think he can get along way on sort of tone character and so but eventually he's going to be measured by some of these economic pro health care. childcare could raise the minimum wage. I guess if he could persuade the senate to do it but he's going to be measured on the things that touch people's lives and not having the senate is going to make it a more a more difficult assignment. Oh no. I don't disagree with that. I'm just finding the benefit right now for the country's interest politically yeah i. It's going to be tricky. Because of progressives very starving. And by. I wrote this thing for the bulwark. Tweeted they beckon august and i can argue from biden's point of view having a fifty fifty or even plus one republican senate puts him in the middle of the action in a way if it were schumer impulsive with majorities. You know there was a danger. I thought it'd be a little bypassed. So were see the republics and the good side will be a useful foil to some of the progressives or say absence not reality now we can't spend two trillion dollars on this and that on the other side. Can he find five. Six seven pragmatic republicans. The romney's murkowski's collins the play ball or are the repub go lockstep into complete opposition politics. I think this is going to be. This is going to be a really hard few years to go through exactly this. 'cause i mean let's be clear. We we talked about the stimulus as it related to pre election. I mean the group that was no on any big stimulus. Before the election wasn't the trump administration and it wasn't house or senate dams it was republicans in the senate. The an i look i. I don't think this is any wild prediction. But you're going to start the clock on how many senate dams star all the sudden. They're very concerned about our debts and our deficits there and really. This is the amapa. Roy seasonal seasonal debt deficit hawk. Do you think trump might make a stimulus move on the way out is kind of an f you to the senate ours. I think you will think about it. I think quite frankly. If you're mcconnell you'd love to clear this out with the the probably schumer to clear this out with the old Yeah senate and congress. I think you've got a lot better chance than to walk in there and try to do it The beginning of day one. And they're better deal. Yeah hopefully hopefully. I mean i. I think that will be interesting to see. Look i think we also have to acknowledge to that that the central thing that biden talked a lot about this healing the the country the repairing of the soul. The nation is is a harder task today than it was just even a few weeks ago. This country got more and more and more divided in a pitched way the closer we got to election day and the days between election day and now Haven't done anything to bring it apart in. My guess is that it's going to take quite some time for you. Know more than seventy million americans even to accept the result of this election so this job got along well especially if the president keeps telling him that it isn't reading the results were not what would they were given me. He tweeted out this morning. i won by a lot and then left for the golf course. And everybody's analyzing what he meant by. Betty didn't win by a lot. I mean it's but one of the biggest shocks to trumpy. He gets back and all of a sudden. The new rule newsrooms across america trump is now gone from page a one page as six in terms of his. Now they don't have to cover everything he says because he's not the president now he is he. You know biden's the president-elect right and it'll move away from it all this is going to move away this will be is really jarring him. All this is going to move away from him and with lightening quickness ri- all the sudden you know he's gonna not only lose the ratings war and lose the ratings war to somebody who who he thought was half asleep But to your point murphy. They're just not going to care as much about his banging and clanging and he'll do a lot of that on the way out every utterances no longer news but yeah there's going to be a whole apparatus that has to get set up to run this new government and that's going leave him Would nobody caring about his opinions. You live through transition robert. I lift pm transition. We're lucky because we had an bush someone who is willing to cooperate. They were revenge. They really were great and Now biden can expect that he can you know i don't think trump's going to sort of a corrode his band by You know what. I making making a By by all of a sudden becoming cooperative and think that's going to happen. I here's my question. Did the new incoming biden administration. Do they who. Who do they call to set up. Meetings achieve staff has covert. Yeah i know. I mean i mean it. You know when you know you when we went through our transition. It was hand in glove. Yeah i mean it was. I remember going to the white house that day. And you know you've got five four four four presidents or former presidents and one president-elect You know each of us met with the counterparts that we would be those jobs we would be doing in in this administration. They couldn't have been nicer. They couldn't have meant you remember. Issues like transition funding for the auto industry to give president obama time to figure out what to do about the auto industry the national security stuff that we won't talk about on this podcast that ri- was discussed now. Let's check out the podcast. We'll talk about that. Yes but deep secrets. They're sending of coronavirus task force of their own biden. And they're gonna announce it monday. Who they deal within the government are is going to be frilled free to deal with them. There is gonna be the fall of saigon. Okay they're burning file cabinet. Somebody's trying to rescue a cat. You know it's going to be nothing. Like bush thing. But let's really. There will be a ton of informal. Reach out the professional staff and the agencies. I think some of the cabinet secretaries will there won't be a plan. But i think i'll bet you see a lot of informal back-channeling to try to one reason. One one reason that up people may they may get cooperation because trump may fire a shit ton of people. You know in the aftermath. Talk that he's gonna fire. Dr fauci that he he he certainly apparently is gonna fire. Dr burks who was pretty outspoken. In a p. She wrote right before the election. Chris wray the fbi director Go on a rampage here but That would free those folks to spend more time with biden task force. I guess i mean the good news is for america that you know somebody was telling me like well. You know if he doesn't if trump doesn't come to the inauguration. I mean they don't have the the t. Before inauguration i said do you think joe biden needs a tour of the white house. Like he's been there. I know he knows you know that old adage of like well. I'm still trying to find the bathroom. They know where that is. They've yeah those eight years there so that's a good thing. I agree with you though. There is that concern of those. You know those cabinet people meeting together those task forces. I mean this. Was you know this was in the in the obama transition to trump. This was where the hand off of the pandemic playbook happened. And then the trump people i guess used it for like you know a doorstop or something But the the the the mechanism of trans The the mechanism of this is just is really important because as we all know somebody gets sworn in at noon on january twentieth they become in a matter of moments. The person that makes all those decisions there isn't like a period of ramp up and they're going to inherit as i said problems. No president-elect is inherited for almost a century and as you say i agree. It's going to be crazy. And clunky hoc jack channel but the guys were coming in have played that piano before they know where the keys are and i will bet dollars to donuts. We will never know until the the memoir. I did it. My way from the university of kentucky press. But i'll bet mcconnell and biden have been back channeling a lot in the last forty eight hours. We'll agree to suit that produces because that's the grab a mcconnell's mcconnell's cook conclusion when he got elected was that We can keep him from accomplishing a lot. at improves our chances of getting the senate back and if we make him solve these problems by himself it's true he read to the daschle. Blueprint i mean. That's the problem. The senate only become a campaign device. But we're see you know. Mitch is smart. He's gonna look at fifty fifty or fifty one. We're see His problem is going to be all his young bucks. Run for president against kamla harrison for years. And they're going to be hard to control and they're going to try to inch out the trump comeback by doing trump impersonate. She's got a tough Situation because already you. You know people on the left or saying she's our go-to person she's right and you know. First of all biden is is. You know we know this. He's he's not. He's not medicare for all persons who wants to expand the a. c. as nada. No he's not where they would like him to be on some issues with a republican senate. There are limits to what he's going to be able to do but In some ways that's the answer you're gives them an excuse to say no. That was my point earlier totally. But she's the one who's going to be held accountable. Yes you know they. The expectations have been set that she will influence policy. And she's the one who's she's the only one of them between the two of them is likely to be on a ballot and twenty twenty four. So how she navigates that going to be really really interesting and like any election of president. I've been watching with some amusement that any group that can claim they put fifty thousand votes together is now on in the news media saying well. We delivered the white house so we brought our list. You know at our vet. We have a very long list. Starts with the secretary of the navy you know. And because we clearly but every every group is is pawn navy blazer than her. I i have my uniform award from scientology but close. I'm gonna try to make a ladder. Amtrak to i know gibbs i know you're after it but i think if you'd want florida you probably have gotten. Oh so cruel. Miami you know The one place. We didn't think we had a lot of grip but we thought the yeah everybody else would fix it said before we get a little florida story that nobody cares about because he lost. Look at the pan handle. We put up a bunch of man on the street military people. He's trump's one seven points behind where he was last time in the military communities and the military vote. Well here's the thing. Trump got a huge turnout in the rural areas But the fact is the biden did as a percentage he did cut. Trump's vote among non college whites From you know trump won by whatever he got thirty five percent by got thirty five percent. I think hillary got twenty eight percent He did cut his margin in In some of these small towns and rural areas i mean. His big makeup was in the suburbs. That shifted seven points in the up in in biden's favor but you know. I think there is an argument. That biden may be the only guy who could have one of all the people who had run who you know given the strength. We saw of trump absolutely biden's ability to reach Into places other people couldn't And the fact that. I couldn't demonize him to the extent they did and and people are looking for restoration. They're not looking for some radical reform. There they want the norms repaired. But the point is right. Biden fit the anti-trump thing better than anybody. Yeah absolutely now one thing before we go all league of women voters and tell everybody what they have to do to know that. You're gonna leave when you start that here. Yeah we did that. Going down to find a few more boxes in south philly just to be sure that in their just you guys made you talk about it and it worked. No we've got to Two days after they swear in the new congress they're going to have to statewide elections in georgia. Two who runs the senate and can we. Tv station pula nickels and dimes. Right now yeah and look. I mean talk about a date that has seen some amazing electoral change in the last ten or fifteen years Georgia is going to be a fascinating place to To watch this experiment And you know they've got a history of these runoffs and quite frankly republicans have an all an undefeated record in these runoffs so But the question you know. Lots of questions You know are the republicans will they be. Depressed Will that turn out be depressed because there isn't a trump on the ballot will trump tried to get involved and make this a little bit more. tatum's bongo home for one pm or see it as a place to make himself more relevant. Can you know. Interestingly enough. One of the statistics that i saw an art was reading In the atlanta journal constitution is in the two thousands when sonny perdue was governor The electorate was seventy percent white. Now it's fifty three percent white it's demographically it's an it's an amazing thing and what's always been hard in these runoffs for democrats is can you get the. Can you get the base. Vote back out and you saw a huge bass vote. I think it's gonna be too fascinating elections with a lot on the line in an interesting and fascinating state. Well here's a question for you guys. Let's pretend you're back in the white house you know. Nobody will work for biden. So he's down to you. Guys and chuck schumer is online one saying we got to run offs to grab everything. We need biden down there. We need him in this campaign pound. We won't get the out without the other argument. Whoa whoa whoa. we don't want a referendum. On our new president we actually had this billion. Are you know at a time when we can't control it because somebody loses because they make a clown move down there now. Biden has no exotic. That's on his academies mr partisan now which is not what we sold the country. But you're going to get pushback by biden's going to own it internally in the party do you try to own it s only or do you play it cool and say here's help you raise some money. Don't lose. I mean that's a really good question. And my guess is that he solves it by a sending sending kamla there right. That's what i do. I will say this because we were in actually this exact same meeting in around a massachusetts senate race. The didn't turn out so well. But i mean interestingly one of the things murphy is They're going to have to play the expectations game. Smart because it doesn't matter if by could move to georgia or joe biden could never go to georgia. And you know what. He's going to get a hefty amount of blame If those races don't come together and he'll get a hefty amount of credit if they do and it won't really matter some of it won't even matter what right so you send kamla you work on cova and you hope for the best and do everything you think. That's the answer. I look the odds against democrats. They're going to be very very high. It's all the reason guy said. And i think they're higher because by biden one and Yeah the that may motivate republicans more than more than democrats but we Seems to see what trump does in this race is also a parade of flawed candidates. 'cause kelly leffler is no No superkid when it senator. Who won her primary right billionaires or finished second and got into. The runner wore nakas pretty impressive. But he can. If you look at the three boats chunk wasn't as big as i would have thought it was. You got perdue. The world were stand up comedian and john also who gave them a good fight probably as the best shot of the two of them. But it's gonna it's gonna be one hell of iran and of course the whole republican vange crazed machine is going to be heading down there to make a stand and there'd be a competition between all the republican presidential wannabes to go get credit well. I'm sitting here watching the As we tape this On the background. The florida football game. Let me just say. And i say this very lightly attention here given that. I'm from auburn. But like. I'm a big georgia fan. These days as opposed to florida andor but the thing is that Just absolutely just backing off a second and looking at this from a larger lands democrat democrat taking georgia democrat. I think taking arizona. Arizona wait for the final numbers. That pretty big you know because one of the things it's gonna i mean first of all it's just to put a pin in that for a second. The loss of the six fights over the legislative chambers means republicans are gonna still have an advantage in redistricting ryan They're going to be because of the census shift of seats to the sun belt The ability of democrats to compete in the sunbelt states. It there be that you know that that the the mid the mid western states had ride in one are going to become more difficult because they are not changing as rapidly. They have an older wider population. But they're shrink of diverse. Try exact larger sunbelt states. You know now. The texas thing didn't come in trump ended up winning by what set seven or something. Yeah thank god. We call that one right. We did fall out that one up. We did one out of twenty two pick. Texas no no. I didn't fall for that crap. No this is always the democrat heartbreaker. But i do think that i mean they got a huge number huge number of votes out I keep an eye on texas but but we know that to came across the line here. And that's that's a that's a historic thing. And if you look at some of those western states democrats hold those senate seats in a in a way. They haven't in in seventy years. Yeah arizona numale. Yeah and that's sort of interesting. Look i think when when we when we take a step back as you asked us to do over the course of the next few years window behind. I know i don't wanna fall out because then i won't be able to watch the football game The I think both parties are going to have to take long looks into the mirror. Democrats will have have won the presidency and that will be good. Republicans will say we did down about. That'll be good but in reality that they both have some genuine weak spots that this campaign. There's again good things like georgia near zone. But there's there's some weak spots for democrats they gotta look at and you know murphy you and i talked about this over the course of the week. They've been eight presidential campaigns. Since or including. Bob dole's starting in nineteen ninety six and republicans have won the national the popular vote exactly one time in the campaign. So there's i think there's some interesting pressure points for each of the parties to really examine In the go forward time between now and next to rectify all this before georgia but as we lead into now twenty twenty two. Yeah the question is will be long or short term in santa's next republican presidential primary or facing the demographic reality which is python around our neck. We do have this problem. That continues to knaw at the democracy. Which is the population. Drift is too large metropolitan areas. You've got sparsely populated rural states that leverage disproportionate power Power in the electoral college power. Now that will you know that that to some degree as affected by changing population patterns. But still leveraging a lot of Power through the electoral college and the senate and You know biden will probably win the presidential race by you know between five and seven million votes and But you know may have his program stymied by the senate And you know we have to figure out if one hopes that we can figure out how to kind of return to a situation where there are. There is the ability to get some things done or frustrations gonna well up and it's going to overwhelm Public confidence and we're going to be buffeted from election to election between enraged people and anyway gibbs wasn't sufficiently legal voters so i i was gonna say you're topping him now. He's infected me. I would add now that you've opened the legal vote now. I shouldn't have done it now. Nine. but this is the Look what we're going to have to figure out we we in two decidedly different countries. There's a group of people today looking at the outcome of this. And and one of saying i can't believe we didn't beat this guy by fifteen points were the other is saying. I can't believe we didn't win this about fifteen and these two islands coexist on inside this country and there's no connection right to the other island and and look i. I think some of those connections are going to be hard but we better figure out as a country how to connect some of it because we gotta understand some of the anxiety of each side. We've got gotta have some of those discussions co k That is true. And the guy can make and i think understands this is the president elect but it means nixon to china because he he owns the blue half the question is how he can find some connection so the shot totally and that's painful politically because the blue half would like yeah. We'd like to get along on our terms. I agree i mean it's gonna that's compromise sides. Everybody wants to get along on their own terms. And of course democracy Requires everybody giving a little and that you know and the you know the reason that people part of the reason people on the blue side say are resistant to to this whole notion of compromises. Because they feel like they've suffered a tyranny of the minority. Yeah and and and the the red side says while the other party is all about avenging the minority. So we're gonna get avenged on as the new minority. That's why i hate this group. Ism in america used to be about an idea not grievance ranking between groups. But we're get onto that and meanwhile you see how you wanted us to get out of that legal stuff back. Yeah i just wanted to cap it quickly. One of my rants against identity. He felt himself getting sucked into sort clear. My mother was the president of the local rumors to that. Explains this i'm shocked. You'd be okay all right hamilton. one in hamilton. Why don't we get to the fabulous. Okay but i hacker ruse. If you have a question for the hacks email it to us we like your questions. We're excellent app at that his hacks on tap at dot com don't forget to rate us on spotify or apple podcasts. At roy helps get the word out about our little Little caper here. I what do we have gibbs. Oh i've got a question for you mike. It comes from ben he asks What do you think that did well. of what success is. Are you proudest. And what do you think you could have done better besides predicting. Oh ohio and florida Yeah our prediction department needs of fine tuning. I'm very proud of bill. Kristol sarah longwell. Tim miller and everybody at our vet and the more than nine hundred republicans who made videos about why. They can't support trump that we spread out on digital. I think we were the fourth biggest spender on digital communications facebook excetera in pennsylvania and arizona. We spent a lot wisconsin too. So we're very happy. With our targeted campaigns that kind of gave republicans permission to do the right thing regarding donald trump. where we came up short was florida. We spent about ten million bucks So i'm not bloomberg junior though we work closely with them and they were great. We did well in west florida. We flipped our number. One county divall but down in miami dade man you know the just the numbers but hillary won that county good democratic county by twenty nine points back obama by twenty four joe biden will get to about seven and a half maybe eight percent so that that was a fastball. That got the right over the plate. And i think everybody involved in the florida democratic seinfield's That oh that was tough. No doubt all right gives rich asks when voting next january the senate runoff elections. How which is january fifth. How do you how do you think. Maintaining a divided government will appeal to the typical georgia. Voter is there. A desire to flip control of the senate and open the door to be more to to progressive policies. Well i e. You're you're touching on this idea. Of how much will party try to nationalize these georgia runoff elections You you you start with. The divided government appeal that. I think republicans will will try to make because control the senate will be up And i think absolutely that that will be a divided. Government will be the primary Or one of the primary messages for the republican party to maintain a check and balance on the incoming democratic administration of Joe biden in comal hair so undoubtedly that will be a big Message i think in some ways democrats will nationalize part of it. I'm not sure that will work as well But i i. I do think republicans will absolutely make that one of their top messages. Oh yeah they're going to be doing. Aoc aoc insurance That'll you're going to hear a lot of that in georgia or dr axelrod. Mohammed has been listening to his radio. Los lose yvonne people Mohammed wants to know why has ohio. uh-huh become more reliably republican compared to other similar states like wisconsin michigan and pennsylvania. What say you you know. It's really an interesting question and murphy since you were so hot on ohio i'm gonna wanna ask for by one ask you as well. It used to be a bellwether. Stay it used to be almost impossible to win a national election without winning the state of ohio. I think before this election That john f. kennedy may have been the last person to do that and virtually impossible for a republican I mean i can tell you. Generally that the the nature of these states as as older Whiter states have made them more adrift more in the republican direction I think there are characteristics of eastern. Ohio in terms of the economic Components of that part of the state that have become more difficult for democrats used to be reliably democrat union. No longer That way but murphy. You've done a lot of work in ohio. What's your view of it. Well i think you are right. I think like the feckless young romantic fool i am. I was seduced by some beguiling republican polling data in october that put a panic into the columbus. Gop crowd because it showed biden doing very well of women and cutting into non college educated people in eastern and western ohio. Even some the real stuff than in places like gummy county looking pretty good and it turned out not to be true. It went back to the model. You talk about more white more rural little older in trump sound tickets with the his core voters. You look at stark county. Which you know didn't flip back the great Bellwether county in ohio. So it it stayed. Words started and there really wasn't a lot of difference and so that that polling like so much proved to be a bad indicator. If it makes you feel any better. Mike dewine right before the election was on tv. Predicting even a narrow trump win ended up winning by eight. So you're not. The only young feckless lists person who was fooled by polling the Seventy five or whatever is zero seventy three year. Old governor of ohio was fooled by it as well. I can tell you the ours. Were worried because everybody was looking at the polling. I'm talking about the good news for our listeners. Is we got the hook. Atta murphy's mouth after swallowed it on this prediction so Everything's okay as you can hear this from the king of north carolina. All right guys. I thought we would go out today. With the salute. The president elect joe biden in nineteen seventy six when joe biden was in his second year as a fiery young Reform senator from delaware. This was on the airwaves. During a time of kind of good feeling in america coming out of trouble so i thought we played the old gerry. Ford jingle feeling good about america is it change. that's gonna change. That's great to see houston and time. I really wish listeners could have seen watching you to jomo. Stance make mickey. I can't thank god. We're audio only. And a salute to bob gardner the great edmund a that. I can't believe that murphy could get up on the table and things like that. That was really moves. Honky table held him all right guy. I want to just say before we leave. Thank you to everybody that worked on a campaign and thank you to everybody that helped count the vote this week. that stuff. This democracy in our republic Is stronger because of what people did in volunteering their time And in those those folks that that man the polls and canada's votes it we were frustrated as always that it doesn't happen as fast as it did but thank you for what you did. Hallelujah amen amen had to go league of women voters on you at the on. That one gives i give you a pass. 'cause you're absolutely right. It's incredibly inspiring and you know People in their people for who their own purposes people. I'm not gonna mention people who live in the white house who impugned These folks At by suggesting that somehow the there was only on toured about the process. This was probably the most transparent election we've ever had because the attention that was paid to it and it wouldn't have come off but for people all across this country who are willing to give of themselves to make it happen and yeah. It was a proud time for the country. So i'm with you on that. You can go league of women voters on that for everybody. Who has that story. That murphy just played stuck in their head for the next two weeks like i am Also email him directly boys. I'm feeling good about america. We're see you hecker is next time all right. Thank you for listening. Good to see you guys. Thank you love.

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