"They Fixed The NBA All-Star Game"
Open-ended the CIA tweets. What are you doing are the Control Room? Hey there welcome to take down the shore. The hot takes the sports world. Meet the numbers that proved them right or tear them down. Today is February. Eighteenth Twenty twenty. And I'm Sarah Ziegler the sports editor here at five thirty eight. I'm joined in the studio. By senior sportswriter. Neil paintime. Hello those weird voice. I'm just trying to change things up opener I like it. That's great on the line from Los Angeles is five thirty eight. Contributor Jeff Foster. Hey Jeff. Hey Sara how are you good you having a weekend? Yeah it was great. I mean I was mostly just a all star weekend. I was glued. I I had a full time. Babysitter cleared the schedule. I've watched every second of it. I feel like the only part of that might have been true. Is that you got a babysitter now. Not even that. Did you guys happen to catch the end of the Daytona five hundred? I guess today well you mean the Daytona five hundred. That got rained out on Sunday right. So Yeah so after twenty laps on Sunday. The race was postponed because of downpours. So they restarted on Monday. There were several crashes but the one that was the most horrific happened in the last lap. Driver Ryan Newman was racing toward the finish line. For what would have been his second win at the race when he was hit from behind by Ryan Blaney Denny Hamlin Pass for repeat victory. Newman's car went. Airborne hit the side slips several times dot. Hit was on fire and then skidded to a stop. It was it was terrifying. That was one of the worst rex. I think I've ever seen in you. And I are like Aficionados of wrecks after doing a lot of research on like you know various auto racing incidents over the years but the great thing about it is that although Newman's injuries are serious. They're not life threatening and to be honest when you look at a record like that. That's a win. Yeah it was. It was scary. Well the whole thing was scary. He didn't just walk away. Which really lately. There haven't been that many crashes that required a driver to be you know extricated. I mean nowadays. The technology of the car is so much better that drivers can usually walk away from these kinds of crashes and so that had everyone's super worried at first because you couldn't really tell what was going on whether he was going to be okay took like our screens. Yeah get an update. Ultimately he was okay. The wreck was terrifying and it occurs to me that I may be known ever want drive again after seeing these kinds of guys like I'm good. Don't drive it two hundred miles per hour all right tone of motor speedway right. Let that be a lesson to all. That's something I can safely avoid. I think on today's show we'll look at the NBA All Star game and what it can tell us about the rest of the season. We'll unpack the controversy around. Manchester City's banned from Champions League. And we'll take a deep dive into data with our rabbit hole of the week the NBA. All Star weekend featured tributes to Kobe Bryant. A slew of rule changes surprisingly fierce competition and a bit of controversy the All Star game which featured a format change that concluded in fourth quarter. Sprint to one hundred fifty. Seven points looks more like a playoff game than it did. An exhibition match up. Here's Doris burks reaction to the game on. Espn I take. They fixed the All star. Game in my estimation I think other leaks need to look at this throughout the course of the game. It elevated in terms of its competitiveness. We spoke in many times on this show about how underwhelming all star Games can feel. Neil does this change to the rule seem to have fixed it as burke suggested in the take. I mean sort of At the end it certainly felt very competitive. They were I know it was a radical concept. They were actually playing defense at the end of the game And so to that extent it did make the finish of the game interesting hard-fought it's still didn't fix the problem of player effort and defense in the early stages of the game. I mean I I think the first quarter score was fifty three to forty one in a quarter but You know maybe that's what we want out of an all star game. Even before this rule change we had seen especially with the adoption of the player versus player draft format that in the final few minutes. If it's close the the player start to actually try their some pride on the line certainly money for charity on the line And that was true even before this new format and I think that this year's change just made like the whole fourth quarter that way because they didn't know you know there wasn't a set amount of time until the game ended. It was just all about like possession for possession. This game can last as long as you want. And it lasted a long time in the sense that they were not making shots at the same rate anywhere near the same rate in that fourth. Quarter as they were In like the first three quarters I kinda liked it because it felt like especially the first two quarters. The third quarter ended up in a tie that in that quarter but the first two quarters felt like that like you know tons of offense of the previous also games and then we got we also got actual defense team plays so we sort of got the best of both worlds of like. Does anyone actually enjoy the version of the All Star game that we've grown so used to where they're just sort of lackadaisically walking down the cordoned throwing lobster each other with no defense? I mean what is who said even four this point I think the alley oops are fun like twice but you can see just from the reaction from this game this little tweak that everyone's like Oh my God it was the best all star game ever. We were wrong. The gimmicks this is great turns out basketball's more exciting when teams are trying. What a concept defense right. How do we ever not realize this? I mean it seems so obvious to me that we've gone through this a few times and again I'm I'm in favor a of novelty and You know experimenting using these All Star Games as a petri dish but the only one of the All Star Games. That's interesting is baseball. Because it's closest to the actual product. So anything you're going to do to move the NBA. All Star game closer to what we see in well particularly playoff basketball is gonna be better to me. It seems obvious that it was a good move and you know maybe they should go even farther with us. I think I'll start tournament. Nhl Style every every game is a race to twenty four points and it's just all the the fourth quarter it just is the All Star game. Yeah that would be really. We didn't really need the first three quarters right. We just didn't really need it. I mean it set up the one team ahead one team needing to come from behind which I guess you want that narrative. No I don't think so. I think that starting them off at zero zero and then raced a twenty four. Would even make it. You know it's closer. Going in the players would try even harder. Yeah and we want guys getting you know going all out and getting injured meaningless exhibition game. I did enjoy the tweets afterwards. Like okay do the pro bowl next fix the other fixed the other leagues next fixing now. That's probably true so the game was set up with a tribute to Kobe. Bryant as a crucial component the target score for the end of the game was twenty four points. More than the point. Total of the leading team after three quarters. Neil do you think that the Kobe themes of the night played a role in the game? Increased Energy I do. I mean there's no way to really prove it but I do feel like Especially when we saw toward the end when a shot could have been like the game winner we saw some guys trying some crazy shots to just be the iconic you know game winner to get to the to the number almost like it did feel like it was in the spirit of Kobe. Trying to take a shot. Some of them were like ridiculous. Heat checks by Lebron like a foot inside half right. Maybe that was a little bit much And contributed to the bad field goal percentage and we have to talk about the fact that a free throw ended the got the team to the to the twenty four point target. What do you guys think about that? Because there was a lot of controversy around that and people saying especially on the losing team saying field goal should decide which I agree with. I feel like it was a little anti-climactic maybe it was a consequence of the harder Defense being played because there were like actual fouls happening in the fourth. Quarter this game. Two and guys. We're going to the free throw line. But it was a little weird. Anthony Davis makes a free throw. It's over like you gotTa win on a on a shot from the field right. I. I'm just full of country takes today but I kinda disagree. I think like there was drama. If what you need is drama for the last shot you got it with his missed free throw is I miss free throw and then there was drama drama. Can there be around a shot that only has at best like a thirty percent chance of missing or whatever you say that things that have a thirty percent chance okay. We go there Sara. Sorry he didn't have to go there. There's no reason to think that would happen again. I mean I mean it could happen again but it won't necessarily happen again. I mean it was a little bit of just bad luck in terms of making as dramatic as possible. I mean couldn't they also make you win by two? Wouldn't that solve it? I don't think that would have solved it here. They did win by two even with the it was one fifty seven to one fifty five. We're in by three. What about window? That's not normal. Nobody I you know I do feel like it's like tennis. The win by two mentality should be in there even. If it's not exactly two right right. Sure that's what I meant to win by two mentality that replaces the Mamba mentality boy or maybe refs. Just you know no fouls no fouls when a team is on brink of winning. Well I kind of agree with that too. I don't disagree with that because you know if we're talking about playground rules which is the spirit of the draft. You know in the two cats getting to pick sides in playground like you know you're GonNa have to score a bucket from the floor to win. Fouls can happen. You call you know you can call your own fouls but that just means you get to take it out and go again for another possession that there's not like free throws involved but if you want all rules if you want the game to mimic a real game to be close to a real game. Oh we're way past that way but that was fun right that it felt more like a real game. I'm with Sarah. I'm for I'm for the free throws you've come as I said before the closer. You get a real basketball. The better so free throws are fine. I'm sorry it ended that way. I'm sorry it didn't end. On some crazy lob dunk that which is really all they do at the All Star game anyway but it ended on an actual real basketball scenario. That's what's so interesting like free throws are things that don't happen in the All Star game when no fouls are being called and it's and there's no defense being played so this part I felt like that was actually fine. I'm complaining about just just for the sake. Okay all right good to know and it was really interesting to see there. Were very few there were substitution. Sort of at the beginning of the fourth quarter and then the teams just stuck with those lineups for the rest of the game because you did see like trae young and I think Don Chech- they were the starters but then they didn't play In favor of like more defensive-minded minded guys like kyle our Kyle lowry playing. You know crucial minutes at the also charges very on band Jasdaq. Yeah this kind of make sense. Why Kyle lowry was there? You know I mean he's not the guy who's GonNa you know. Wow you with acrobatic plays but taking charges because this new world order this is the new all star game where defense matters. I liked that aspect of it. I'm all for coaches really seemed to buy in and they took obviously trae. Young is statistically showboats. Right exactly TRAE. Young is like one of the worst defensive players in basketball and so they were like. Oh man you know now that this. This is like the player we want for the first three quarters of the. All Star game your first three quarters guy. Yeah but then. Now it's the fourth quarter. This is serious business bringing in Kyle lowry now. It counts now count accounts. It's still doesn't count well so I think that the reason why they didn't make the subs though is because well once they got kinda rolling into it. It was all about the competition In those players I think would not have wanted to to come off under any circumstances but also the fact that you didn't really know when the game would end or how much longer there would be in the game because of the the Weird L. Amending scoring system you know and the fact that the twenty four points that they added on to the leading teams score by normal all-star standards that would have taken like a half a quarter at most So I think maybe they were like look. We don't know how long this is. GonNa take so. Let's just roll with it. And then when they started actually playing defense. They're like well. It's too late now. We can't like make subs and pull some of these guys out on this stage right. Also they were all playing really. Well I mean going into the defense was working. Crates WAS YEAH. I of a suggestion here me out since we can do whatever we want. Now with the All Star game. What if they made the subs? Once you were sub down. You couldn't come back in the game so it's a little bit. I guess I'm just trying to make everything like the baseball all star game but it added a little more tactics on one. You deploy certain players when you take the amount and how you can structure lineups. Think about that. That's interesting although mind-blowing would we know so that would mean like you wouldn't start the game with like Lebron you might actually start with a weaker lineup or you or more balanced lineup or you might wait and see who the other team puts on the court and you know hockey style tried to match up. Certain guys you'd stagger the stars. I like that I try to change every aspect of this because it needs improvement. I hate the NBA. All Star game. I'm not shy about making that point. I can't stand it I find unwatchable so you should be in charge of changing it. Then maybe maybe me I think yeah. I mean if we're borrowing for hockey. They should just make subs in the middle of the play okay. That's one of the many things that I don't understand that at all anyway. The highlight of the all-star weekend is usually the famed dunk contest. This year's competition did not disappoint requiring an additional two rounds of competition before a Derek Jones. Junior of the Miami Heat finally claimed a single point. Victory over Orlando's Aaron Gordon. Despite Gordon's final round dunk over seven foot five Taco fall robbery Marion. We'll get to that. There was a lot of controversy over the judge's decision. Okay so I personally felt that Jones deserved the win. In the first Tiebreaker Round Jones had the dunk from the side where the ball is tossed off the side of the backboard and then went through his legs. And then Gordon did his third dunk of the night over. Chance the rapper. Which was my first problem there. But it was a carbon copy of previous dunk. Jones had done over two dudes instead of just one but I might be outnumbered here I think. What did you guys think of dust? First of all? I think Gordon did that just to show like. Hey you did this dunk. I can do this dunk but I also did my other. Dunks were better than your dunks and I mean Gordon was the better dunker I think consistently throughout the contest. He did more interesting dunks. You probably disagree. And that's not what it's about but I think the scoring system and the way the judge's work are like have poisoned the contest because first of all they because we know who the judges are able to kind of Chit Chat with each other at the scoring table. There's a lot of collusion going on. There's collusion between like some of the judges in some of the competitors like Derek Jones. Junior is friends with Dwayne Wade. But the fact is that they'll start out first round early on. Maybe they'll give like an eight you know. That's like the lowest. Unless you just outright I dunno just do like the BLANDEST DUNK. Possible or just don't even get a dunk in the lowest that they'll give you as an aide on a ten point scale so then once we get to the end and Derek Jones and Aaron Gordon are doing like legitimately insane dunks that some of which we've never seen before there's nowhere to go once you've given a ten by the final dunk of the first round. That's like the Max you can possibly do. And so I think combined that with the fact that there's a lot of like peer pressure and everybody is sort of you know feels hated on if they get less than an eight on a dunk from any of the judges In the first round that the scoring system just gets way out of whack and then all of a sudden we have to have like this dunk off of of consecutive fifties Seven consecutive fifties in the in the final round or whatever. It was Just to decide who wins in in. The you know haven't helped the person that gets a nine instead of a ten from one of the judges in that determined who wins. I think they should be comfortable saying like look a five out of ten is an average dunk contest dunk. There's no shame in a five out of ten but give yourself more wiggle room in the judging. So that a ten really is legitimately like an all time great dunk instead of just feeling like a perfunctory ten. Because it's like pretty impressive and you don't WanNa like make anyone mad. I feel like that's the biggest problem with the dunk contest. Right now wonder if it was anonymous. Yeah I think it should be anonymous to know. I think terms of the judging. I think no player would submit themselves to this. If it meant they were going to be embarrassed and get a low score then totally like you would have to radically change so be like look. This isn't the same as past years. You can't compare these dunks directly to previous years like anyone's doing that anyway. I mean maybe literally I'm the only me and Jeff would be the only people that would go onto wikipedia and try to like compare multiple years dunk scores to other so. I'm literally done that. Our boss nate silver suggested on twitter. That every judge should get an eleven that they can use once. I like that too. That's kind of fun right. It's a little ridiculous that we have to make it. Go to eleven to until dissolve that but that would be one way around it I will say there is a video on youtube which is called every fifty point dunk in and I started watching it the other day during downtime and then I realized you know it was like a covers like Vince Carter spud Webb. I was like okay. You know Jordan from the freezer or line and then I realized the video was fifteen minutes long. And they're like a hundred and fifty of these so obviously there's a problem. There's way too many fifties. I think you're right. I think it should be like a rare thing that you you don't necessarily see every year or you need to somehow reset the scoring. I'm not saying they go. Maybe they should but all figure skating and make it highly convoluted and you have Execution Score and creativity score in a difficulty score and then you see the scores. Come up and you don't even know whether it was good or bad But I'm saying they need to sort of reset it so that there is something people are spiring. Do that isn't necessarily done every year. If that makes sense and by the way he did not clear Taco fall takaful bent his head down. That is my big problem with so what you guys are saying about the scoring totally true but in that last round neither of those dunks got fifties. The judges did sort of at least a couple of them gave nine. I think so no with. Everyone was so amazed by jumping over TACO fall. He didn't job over him he jumped. He's smashed his head you you don't get credit for jumping over a 7-foot-5 guy if that dumb for five almost loses his head okay. Fine then he should have brought out a seventy two guy and then like that would have been fine. He said he tried to get shocked to do it and shack declined. So TACO was his second choice or a lot of talk guys on the sidelines. Here seven feet tall yawn is so pack. Huntington Dunk Dover Janas interco who is six foot. Eleven it's basically in clear him so that was my. That was my biggest problem there. You're right Erin. Gordon's dunks overall. We're more creative but it's not accumulative scoring thing maybe it should be but it wasn't in the dunk contest this weekend. And so they couldn't people can't be like well he should have won because he had all the the fifty point dunk early on well. Those didn't count early on. And that's part of the thing but if we had eleven's those would have been like a fifty five point two sir later on sure. Maybe so yeah who no. But then you gotta decide when you're GonNa deploy eleven the whole thing. You wait till the very end. I also think you know if we're talking about a one time use eleven one like a one time use of each dunk type or like typology in the contest. So it's like you can only jump do the like I'm jumping over a tall guy thing like once. Yes or what about this guy's here? Here's my ultimate fix. The type of dunk is set for around and every dunker has to do that type of dunk So we're comparing jump over tall dude. We're comparing windmills. Are you know rock baby or whatever. I don't hate that. And then you can see it more clearly head-to-head what's better and who's doing it in a more creative twist or whatever rain very different kinds of time and they tried that at some point because I remember the head the wheel of dunks which was highly unpopular probably because they called it the wheel of dunks and they would go out and they would spin a wheel and it would have like different dunk types and whatever it landed on was what you had to do. The players hated it but maybe it was just an idea that was ahead of its time and needs to kind of come back. I feel like so. There's still a lot left of the NBA season. But it finally feels like a manageable number of games. Maybe what are we excited about looking ahead to the playoffs? Neil what are you most excited about? Well I'm excited to see the bucks. And whether they can kind of parlay this amazing regular season in to a championship. Because you know I I wrote about this a few weeks ago. They're on like a seventy one pays. They're really having like one of the all-time great regular seasons. But it's happening in an era. Where maybe we don't care as much about regular season accomplishments. Also they play in Milwaukee. So it's a lot easier for them to kind of fly under the radar so. I'm just excited to see them in the playoffs. And kind of you know when when the regular season is over if they can kind of translated into a championship this year. Yeah for sure Jeff. What about you? What are you most excited about? I'm sort of interested in the Raptors. Who have been really unbelievable lately and doing so without Leonard but still a lot of guys who have won a championship. I'm interested to see if they really really if if if anyone in the east can challenge the box and certainly I think they're the most intriguing option currently. I'm also sort of interested in the Pelicans if they make the playoffs I think we have them at fifty five percent now obviously with Zion. They're a totally different team. And I think the MBA would love to have him in the playoffs just for the pure excitement value. So that's that's probably up there as well in the West. What about user? I'm always interested to see how the model does and who the model likes Gomaa Take Schill. No no I'm interested to have emerged. You want to sell to always fivethirtyeight dot com slash door No I really interested because there are a couple of teams that are model has liked more than I have liked really her philly being one of them that the mile thinks very highly oven thinks that the talent is there the way that team has fit together so far. This year hasn't really worked. I'm also fascinated by the rockets are model has the rockets as the highest current rated team. And they are sort of the conventional wisdom about them. Right now is that they're going so short. Which as a short person I love but like can they actually compete you know? Can Anyone Guard Anthony Davis when they played the Lakers that really remains to be seen and so the conventional wisdom is very down on Houston right now and yet our model still loves them? So I'm I'm fascinated to see how that plays out. Once we get into the playoffs and weather their lack of height hurts them or whether they can thrive as as short people who are still six six so we currently have the sixers a better chance to make the finals in the books set. Correct that is correct. By one percentage point but yes that is correct which is interesting. I mean the talent Philly has a thought of talent and they just haven't quite translated that into wins so far so we'll see how things play out over the rest of the season. Let's pause for a quick word from this week. Sponsor ziprecruiter hiring is challenging. But there's one place you can go where hiring is simple fast and smart and growing businesses connect to qualified candidates. Quotable co-founder Gretchen hubner experienced. 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Ziprecruiter DOT com slash takedown? That's ZIPRECRUITER DOT COM. Slash takedown T. A. K. E. D. O. W. N. Over the weekend the Union of European Football Associations or UEFA banned Manchester City from competing in its games including the Champions League for the next two years ended. Assess the soccer club. Fine of thirty million euros. Manchester City is accused of violating UEFA club licensing and financial fair play regulations by overstating its sponsorship revenue and break even information from twenty twelve to two thousand sixteen. The two year ban from one of the world's most coveted competitions is a severe punishment for the club. That has really shaped English soccer over the past decade. Here's Robbie Earle on the to Robbie's podcast with his reaction to the ban. It is unusual. It's an absolute massive shocking. You ice cold. The people on an atomic bomb to help break this all down. We're joined by someone whose name you hear every week but is making an on air on Mike Debut Tony Chow. Our Guy in the control room. Thanks for being here Tony. Hello thanks for having me. It's so weird being on this side of the table. I'm just glad everyone can get. Who's man in the Control Room? Is it just on autopilot right now? Honestly just really proves little. I do back there because I hit the button. I can be here leave every every week. This is the lights are bright and now it's hot in here on Fan. You know this is. This is good for us. Roll our doing. Those lights are bright. It's hot how do you do this? So let's talk about why. This is such a significant moment for the sport and how this could possibly restructure European soccer. I kneel how exactly did man city allegedly violate UEFA rules to get into this? We have to rewind the clock to two thousand eight. That was when she commenced. You're a member of the Dhabi. Royal Family Bought Man City and he started spending a lot of cash on superstar players for the team. And the way that these rules work is in order to spend more money on the team. You have to offset that by income to the team and so the way that it seemed like it was above board was. There's this Company ETI I'd Airways which updates sponsorship deal with Man City to sixty seven and a half million pounds to help pay for all the players will. That's within the rules. If that was how would actually happen but there were. These hacked e mails leaked and published in the German News. Magazine Der Spiegel The which I love. They had the the subject line on the emails was it was something like cash flow which is not at all suspicious but basically the emails shed light on the fact that this was not really above board that the contribution by ti which by the way is owned by the same private Equity Company. That sheikh man sewer also has heavy involvement with The it was only a limited direct contribution of eight million pounds from the sponsorship Toward Man City and the rest of the deal sort of came out of man's tour's own pocket or at least from the Private Equity Fund. That's against the rules so you can't sort of route money From yourself through a sponsor and then into your club to be able to pay for players according to these financial fair play laws you have to. You know every dollar that you spend on players has to basically come from what they deemed to be a legitimate source. That's the root of all of this. I think I'm going to start subject lining all of my emails Mike Crimes and and see what happens. Tony. What's the function of these regulations? What is your wife trying to avoid by putting rules like these into place? I think the point of UEFA when it was first implemented was to prevent clubs from losing money a lot of clubs at that time was hemorrhaging a lot of money. These regulations were put in place to help stabilize the market opponents. Say That will now. These rules are kind of keeping the rich clubs rich and the poor clubs poor in preventing upward Mobility Club. So that you have these super teams and you're not allowing other clubs to like get richer and drew capping how much they're able to spend based on the revenue and is it kind of a case of trying to save teams from themselves almost by having this place and forcing them to spend within their means. It's like a natural cap on how much money the that everyone spends on players exactly. It's so if you have really really wealthy owners to try to prevent owners from pudding how much money they want to clubs so yeah in a way it is to make sure that club spend within their means and kind of protect them from selves. Well it's kind of like the old money versus new money thing like the teams that have always been rich are big names and they're gonNA attract star players no matter what and so then these up and coming teams are going to have a harder time if they can't offer the big exactly like keeping the upper crust upper cross. You have the means to spend more on players if you don't have good players right. Is there a comparison to this that we can draw in other sports like a luxury tax sort of thing it does seem sorta like the salary caps and stuff that we have in the US where it's also designed to kind of keep rich owners from just out spending everyone and even baseball where there's no salary cap per se has a luxury tax? And we saw it with the we talked about the Mookie. Betts trade of the red sox you know feeling compelled at least somewhat financially to to trade away a great player rather than spend more to keep him. So it's these are all mechanisms it seems like to in some ways. Depress player salaries In a Lotta ways or at least you know. Instead of letting the market spiral ever upward for for players in have teams get into bidding wars and end up spending a tremendous amount. There's like this Bilton mechanism to govern. How much and be like whoa there. You're spending too much on these guys you know. May maybe you WanNa rain it in a little bit. If you'll stricter than the luxury tax though because the amount of wealth we're talking from some of these owners if it was just like a luxury tax situation they'd be like I don't mind paying like what thirty million that they put on me and said he is really nothing. It's like the two year ban from Japanese League Beto which could cost them three hundred like maybe as a problem but even then if it was a luxury tax I don't think they would mind paying tax the differences like whereas a salary cap or luxury taxes done in the name of parody. This is Kinda done in the name of status quo where you've essentially a protecting the old guard from having some new team with you know and I think there's something pretty xenophobic about it. Having foreign money come in just by themselves into relevance instead the old established brands that have already making a ton of money will stay on top. So it's a little bit different there this notion that if you're you know trying to make a splash in the English league or any of these leagues you're not GonNa be able to do it quickly. And what we saw in the lat this century that Man City did it quickly so in some ways it probably could have been expected well and it's interesting. That man cities defenses olive. Our opponents are coming after us. Because we're good which yeah Kinda right. That's a valid argument. You can see why they think that the people who have been most outspoken about how Manson has built team are the teams that they are beating for Premier League titles. So you can understand where they're coming from man's that he says it will appeal the ruling to the International Court of Arbitration for Sport which I love as quickly as possible. Jeff how could that play out trip play on for a long time? They're going to obviously fight this with all the money at stake. And and wanting to keep their coach and keep their star players essentially. It's a problem because there's no no one's GONNA WANNA go or stay on a team that especially in this elite level is not going to be in the Champions League for two years so I think they're gonNA fight it with everything they have and there was one report that they said they have evidence that you venison. Psg have done the same thing and it could get really ugly. It's not like UEFA is some beacon of good practice so it it'll probably get complicated and I think ultimately I think they'll probably probably get knocked down to one year but who knows. I think it'll get tied up in the courts for a while and they have they have a lot. There's no restrictions on how much they can spend on lawyers. As far as I can tell so I think they certainly have more money than UEFA. It's going to get like messy messy messy and it's GonNa be it's GonNa go on for a long time. Jeff said I have a hard time seeing them. Get rid of being completely. Maybe one year. But they're gonNA fight this very very hard rumors are they have a docket not just inventors. Nps Jeep but like a docket of other teams have violated FCC and are not afraid to kind of share it with UEFA share. And I can understand why you wouldn't want that but like does that actually help. Nancy's case can you get away with saying other teams violated at two? Is that good enough defense I? I'm not sure they're trying to put on a situation. Where okay you can go ahead and ban this team and that team and all these very popular teams. I mean obviously wouldn't play out like that but I think technically if they established that you know these other teams need to come in review. They could give you a cold feet in theory. I guess about a really going down this road. The other interesting part of this to me. Is that if you wafer loses this if Manchester City is able to fight it successfully. There's no way they'll ever be able to enforce any financial restrictions right. I mean this cases sort of the bellwether for whether UEFA can run these hugely profitable teams within their rules for sure and it kind of felt like that when the news broke on last Thursday or Friday. I think we're sharing all our sports in soccer channels in slack because like Oh my God. What's going to happen now? Nobody knows because it's man city because of their history you know that they're gonNA fight this tooth and nail and they apparently have irrefutable evidence that they are all within the rights of what are under financial fair play so it is like a bellwether because we're not sure what's going to happen going forward now and was this kind of like a house of cards that was bound to fall eventually because of the way the these teams operate and also the fact. They're doing it across like multiple different countries. And you know having to kind of work it out on such a grand scale it. It seemed like something like this was inevitable. Yeah I think every year you you hear these murmurings of like how they signing these players but the the weird thing is for Man City in this case it was actually the the period that they're talking about between twenty twelve in two thousand sixteen. It was before when they sign those like fifty million dollar fullbacks. It was before those humongous signings so every year though you heard these memories of weight Harley doing this but his house. Ps genuine this. So yeah it was eventually going to happen. This was some club was gonNA get hit with this and not just a transfer ban from one or two season. This is like an unheard of banned for two years well and PS G. An unmanned city had already been fined. Then these hacked emails came out and this whole other trove of information that is all bringing it back up so it does kind of seem like it's not GonNa so I'm GonNa just go away really protect two step verification guys like. Let's really protect your emails. So it's also possible that the premier league could punish city. The League doesn't have the same fair. Play rules as UEFA but it does have its own requirements for authentic financial records. So they could see you know maybe a points penalty or something like that or titles being rescinded again whole wild world. We have no idea what's going to happen by a point deduction titles rescinded. Who knows but more? Interestingly this year like what happens with them being eliminated next year is where I think. Every fan has like new hope. I know we had just nothing race. The the unless you're a Liverpool fan like this premier league was not super interesting and now all of a sudden there are like six teams vying for two spots in the Champions League. If all of this holds up and suddenly suddenly very exciting right yet and I think it isn't like Jeff said. I have a hard time seeing both years being re if when they appeal so no matter where I think next season you're not gonna see man. Sitting in the Champions League so that fifth spot in the Premier League is a Champions League spot for everybody Sheffield United Teams are stored Manchester United. Had had a seven percent chance to make. Champions League then this news plus them beating Chelsea and suddenly there through five percent to make it. It's a it's a whole new world today. We were talking for a while. How to even have this reflected in our model. Yeah because we had man city basically qualify for Champions League right. They had the second spot pretty much shown up. Yeah well you know. It's it's not hard to see the parallels between this and our friends the Houston Astros. I know maybe we were trying to make it through a whole show without talking about the astros but but we can't. I do think it's interesting that to you. Know major sports are kind of going through a scandal like this at the same time and kind of having it played and the juxtaposition of seeing city at least initially like you said Tony. I'm and they'll probably negotiated down or you know appeal it down but the two year ban on the Champions League and then for the Astros Kinda nothing you know rob Manfred Tried to kind of go on and and justify over the weekend The the lack of penalties to specific players and certainly to the to the Astros In the past but it kind of brought it into stark contrast where like. Why wouldn't you if you were a major league baseball? Why not ban the Astros from the post season at least four this season or for two years? If you're drawing a comparison with the the Champions League I'm guessing that they promised the players a certain amount of non punishment to get them to talk about the united them personal immunity. But I'm guessing that they also said and this won't affect your team going forward. That's just terrible. If was part of it. But what if you're a player? Why would you talk if you thought the team? You'RE GONNA be on. There's no way for you to not be on. That team doesn't get to compete. I think that's a little similar to the questions Now around Man City of you know who's going to want to stay with them you know and and if you can get out of there and go to a team that could go to the Champions League you would now at this point in some players have part of their compensation tied to plane and Champions League so they are totally screwed. Which is obviously a huge. Bummer for them again. They didn't do anything wrong. Which is sort of the difference between water the Astros that are so on. That team did that so you can't really fault. The Man City players. They did not do this. They just signed the contract they were offered like of course that will know before you can see paperwork. Financial Fair play. No that's maybe not a bad idea right. You know if you WANNA protect your future there. It'll be fascinating to see how this plays out into sea along the peel takes. It could last longer so that Manson he does get to play next season If the appeal is still kind of dragging on so yeah. The summer will be an interesting one for all. These appeals. So would that extend like if they were able to appeal of but then they upheld the two year ban would extend like potentially like three or four years from now they would be banned. It would just hit whenever they have that final decision. The same thing's happened with the transfer bands when you appeal. You can continue getting transfers until that ban hits. Yeah so we'll have to see the summer. So if you're a premier league team who is suddenly in contention maybe try to get the third spot instead of focusing all your efforts on that fourth spot. Thanks Tony for talking to us about soccer. Thanks we'll have you back out of the control room and back in the in the Studio Soon. Just have to go back. Make sure it's recording at five thirty eight. We often find ourselves falling down. Various rabbit holes of data suddenly destroys some. Don't we end each week? Show with one of these descents. The hot take down rabbit hole of the week. This week's rabbit hole comes to us from a listener. Bill Sprague who noticed a fun fact about the one hundred years of the NFL? Every decade of the League's history with an Asterisk on the Nineteen Twenty S. It's first decade. We'll get to that every decade featured a team that won at least three championships in that decade. The most recent of those teams was of course the New England Patriots won three superbowls each in the two thousand tens and thousands before them the Dallas cowboys. One three in the nineteen ninety s the San Francisco giants four in the eighties. And the Pittsburgh steelers won four in the seventy s in the nineteen sixties straddling. The Pre and Post Super Bowl. Eras were the Green Bay. Packers won five total titles that decade which frankly little excessive they shared a little bit. Zalm saying no anti packer bias. Coming from user. None whatsoever actually. I realized before my dad and GRANDPA were huge Vikings fans and then bears fans before that so the my hatred of the packers longtime coming. No wonder they hated them five. Titles in the sixties. That's too much. There were fewer teams at that time before the merger so dynasties were a little easier to come by in nineteen sixty six the last season before the super bowl the NFL had just expanded to just fifteen teams in the fifties when they're either twelve or thirteen teams depending on the season. The Cleveland Browns and Detroit Tigers. Each won three titles. The bears were league champions. Four Times in the forties and the packers four times in the thirties. Now I said there was an asterisk. On the decade of the nineteen twenties so the Canton bulldogs were champions of the NFL. In nineteen twenty two and Nineteen twenty-three in nineteen twenty four the owner of the Cleveland Indians. Nfl Franchise bought the Canton bulldogs and merged the two teams and that team. The Cleveland bulldogs was the league champion. That year that team included some of the players of the previous to Canton Seasons. But it also had the canton head coach as its head coach. So you can kind of count out. There were at least part of the team that won the third in that decade ago. Love those weird like early. Pro Sports Franchise continuities where like one guy would own two teams and transfer like every player from the unfavoured. One to the favorite one. You know that just seemed like it happened all the time back then yeah the early days of the NFL. Where the wild west teams were popping up and and going away like that constant go Tana Wanda Carson exactly. We obviously always WanNa talk about that. Our listener bill was curious about the characteristics of dynasties that might help us. Predict the Dynasty of the twenty twenty s now the chiefs recent win counts toward the twenty tonnes since the champions of the twentieth nineteen season. Though of course they could just win three more in the twenties and have their own dynasty. So the obvious element in dynasties is the coach quarterback pairings. That's probably what you think about the most but that might just be because bill belichick and Tom Brady have been together so long. You know kind of at the forefront of what we think about what makes a team successful the cowboys in the one thousand nine hundred eighty one three super bowls with the same quarterback Troy Aikman but with two different coaches famously in Jimmy Johnson and Barry Switzer same with the niners of the Nineteen Eighty S. Same quarterback Joe Montana. Two different coaches bill. Walsh was succeeded by George. Siefert in the nineteen seventies. The steelers featured Chuck Knoll as head coach and Terry Bradshaw as quarterback but bradshaw wasn't the only quarterback to see significant starts during the steelers title. Run Bradshaw had been the primary starter in nineteen seventy three the season before their first super bowl win but he was benched to start. Nineteen seventy four in favor of Joe. Gilliam Bradshaw won the starting job back halfway through the season but then he was benched again. A few games later he won the job back one more time and then he managed to hold onto that time en route to the Super Bowl. So maybe a little upheaval isn't the worst thing for an NFL dynasty. Maybe it's the way you weather the storms of a season that kind of sets you apart. I'm wondering if that gives hope to all the quarterbacks that were like replaced in the middle of the season or we had a lot of injuries this season in the NFL too so maybe that's just the steppingstone obviously to becoming a super bowl winner in the feature industry right. You don't even need to start the season as the starting quarterback you can you know. Just come in halfway through and takeover and still and still get that dynasty off the ground so I wanted to dig a little deeper into how to predict a dynasty so if I find anything else interesting there I'll report back but I did find it very funny that we think of you know Brady ballot check together and that's how you build a team but that's not the only way well so if we put it to a bet right now who do you guys think will win three super bowls in the next decade. Just put you on the spot now. Counting Sam Darnold and the jets right because that's too obvious. Yes decides based on what you just said. Sarah it's possible that's a good point jeff that there is maybe a chance for the jets. They've had some upheaval but seems to me coming down on. You don't want that please. Also let's not get ahead of ourselves. I don't know it's hard to predict. How long is Andy. Regan a coach the chiefs. I mean if I WOULD. I know this is the boring answer. But if he's there for a while and homes there for awhile. It's probably the obvious choice. I mean I would say the other quarterbacks fit that mold in terms of potential like to Shawn Watson I mean I don't think Bill O'Brien I would say not widely thought of as a great coach or a brilliant coach of anything he's kind of been criticized for holding Watson back so it it it probably be one of these young guys coming in right now in terms of their career. Aligning with this upcoming decade. Yeah I mean. I'm tempted to take the ravens just because of how Great Lamar Jackson is. I do wonder if teams will figure him out a little bit and you know and be able to stop him some but you kind of like the mix of stuff going on with the Ravens and the young quarterback you know a lot of the teams that were good. Last year. Had Pretty old quarterbacks injured breezes getting close to retirement anyway and so it's hard to predict dynasty for the saints at this point going forward. You know the niners. You'd like their quarterback to be better but maybe Jimmy G. is just about to show us many exciting things. Yeah you could be. I mean you know. He's more of a bradshaw type. Yeah that was great. Yeah cannot work. Relatively late late bloomer. I'm with you on that though. That like okay. The chiefs are good impulse because mahomes but eighty read sixty one how much longer he'll coach. Belichick is approaching seventy you know so He could be around at least long enough to win. Three super bowls in the first half of the next decade. I like the the impulse with the Ravens though because John Harbaugh younger than Andy Reid and Lamar Jackson really the only Question Mark there. Yeah is is the unique playing style and whether that will kind of translate to the long-term I also have my eye on. Why not the Eagles? Well you know. They have a relatively spring chicken of a coach compared with Andy Reid you know with Doug Peterson. He's fifty two. It's kind of the prime time to be a coach and still have Carson Wentz. If he can stay healthy you know so. We got options in the next decade. The Eagles are a fun. One to overcome the adversity of the past couple of seasons that that that would be a good storyline. Really isn't the NFL. All about storylines it is and what about what you talked about the saints. But what about that? Young hotshot tastes them hill. Who thirty or well. So you've got the eagles sure why not? I've got the Ravens Jeff's got to the chiefs. Nice all right. We'll check back ten years. See how that went all right. That will do it for this week's show. Thanks so much for joining us. We'll be back in your feed next Tuesday if you like what you heard. Please subscribe and be sure to review and rate the show. It helps other people. Discover the program. You can also email us at podcast at five thirty eight dot com to let us know what you think. Our podcast producer is grace lynch. Tony Chow is a participants and in the control. Rooms control our podcast commissioners chat Matlin for Neil Devon Tony. I'm Sarah thanks for listening to talk to you next time.