CFB Week 5: Matt Youmans

Automatic TRANSCRIPT

Into the game, you kind of your money. That's how you find out all my bets were safe. That wouldn't be any juice. Juice point spreads the prop bets, but teasers the parlays from Vegas to you. This, he's behind the bat. Welcome into behind the best podcast. I'm Doug zero. We are taping this on Wednesday, September twenty, six college football season. Four weeks in we had some ridiculous games last week, including that Oregon Stanford finish that went into overtime. We're going to discuss that with both Matt humans, Vegas sports information network, and John Murray of the west gate, Las Vegas super book. So lot of great stuff. We're also going to discuss Alabama of a piece on ESPN dot com. Talking about their dominance and how the quarterback to is just making oddsmakers and betters just treat Bama team so differently than any other Bama team during saban's ten year. And some of the big bets that the west gates taken not just on ban, but also this coming week. Matt's gonna have his picks as well. Even a couple NFL picks as well. So we'll dive deeper into the college football card coming up on the behind podcast. Now word from one of our sponsors. These days you can get practically every. On demand like this podcast. Listen, whenever you want when it's convenient for you, did you know you can get even postage on demand, all you need a stamps dot com with stamps dot com. You can access all the services of the post office right from your desk by imprint real US postage for any letter or any package all available twenty four hours a day. Seven days a week. Just click print mail in your done stamps dot com. We'll even send you a digital scale. You can wear your letters and packages and print the exact amount of postage every time right now use Betts b. e. t. s. for this special offer a four week trial includes postage and a digital scale go to stamps dot com before you do anything else. Click on the radio microphone at the top of the homepage and type in bets, that stamps dot com. Enter bets. I like saying it every week because it is true back by popular demand. And Matt Uman's Vegas sports information network, joining us from Las Vegas. How are you? Matt. It's great to be back on. I was talking with most yesterday and he said, why hasn't dog invited me on his behind the best podcast said, well, just waiting for the right time and hopefully you buy breath soon because he wants to be out. I've known you long time, but I still can't tell when you're joking or not. Is that a joke. You know, just invite breath on your podcast t when he's gonna see yet. Okay. All right. So you're you're the agent book and I like it. Well, I'd be honored if the odds father would join me on the pods. We'll hopefully pencil that infra down the road. In the meantime, you are here and you've done well, you got a little bit of a lucky break. Let's call it on Stanford last week. What was your reaction to that game? A little bit more. I know the year I'll talk a little bit about that because that game brought up to my favorite sports betting sayings. And one of them is. Great can happen the moment you give up and you know, I gave up on their game admit to that. I took the channel when justly Herbert ramping first time for Oregon. You look at the clock and the timeout situation, and I said, okay, Oregon run this down about twenty seconds out of bounds. Stanford after go into the field and ten seconds time, timeout dates over flipped the channel to Wisconsin Iowa, which I had that under the Twitter, forty three and a half. Now that was a ridiculously bad break. They get one good break. Get one back break in the same. You know, span of what, like three minutes. It's amazing how those going down at the same time and thing I like to say about sports betting is there's nothing worse than hope because when you sit there glued to that game, if you if you've got Stanford. And you stayed tuned in and you were hoping for American. We're doing this. I think just better giving up and moving onto different game. And that's why I done there. I gave up on Stanford. I was like a sit there and hope for a miracle. So over to concentrate. And what are you? What are you get there? You get a thirty yard t- ran with twenty two seconds left when Wisconsin to run out the clock to put over total. So at that point of took off because I thought I lost Stanford and just off the Wisconsin, Iowa total, and then my phone started blowing up with taxed about Stanford like, wait a minute. Wait a minute, came over what the hell happened, and then you go back and look and find out that you caught the miracle Stanford. So it's giving take sports managed to put that if you have the Oregon ducks last week, probably we look back at it at the end of the season. That will be the worst beat. The entire season. There is no excuse for Mario Cristobal doing what he did. Absolutely. No excuse. I've heard some people in the media try to make excuses for him this week and say, was right thing to do is absolutely not the right thing to do. He lost the game. He's the clown of the week and there's, that's all there is say about it. I agree. They had other opportunities to seal the game, namely on the goal line when they fumbled and it was a score the other way. But at that juncture even after everything had happened, he blew it and it's really it could derail their season. Let's see what happens at Berkeley this weekend. But this was a team that was trending up at a chance to win the Pac twelve and you're definitely right. It could be the worst game of the year for a team that was considering itself, maybe even an outside chance at the playoff, you never know and brutal brutal loss. But let's talk about Stanford's next game because they got a regroup, maintain all that hype energy stay undefeated and go to Notre Dame as well. And. It's a big, ask to do that, but the cardinal have championship aspirations. And you got to win this game in south bend, Notre Dame lane five and a half here a couple of ways 'cause game. And I understand why the money's coming on Notre Dame. First of all, good spot. Stanford off the miracle in new gene a week ago. A lot of times you wanna bet against the team off a, you know, shocking last minute. Women that like Stanford last week. I understand that it's not a good spot. Also, Brian Kelly who badly outcoached Jim Harbaugh the season opener made another shrewd move this week. He, he finally benches Brandon wimbush. I like Notre Dame was a better against because wimbush is a fifty percent. Passer is he struggles with accuracy and really doesn't make big plays unless he's running the ball and I'm not what. What those guys who are like do for quarterbacks, but you've got to be able to throw it in windows aside from the first half against Michigan hasn't been able to throw it this year. So Brian, Kelly goes to EM book and turns out to be a great move by Kelly last week. Guess Wake Forest really turn that into completely different game book was twenty five or thirty four three twenty five accounts for five TD's Irish pile up fifty six points. Five hundred sixty six total yards. Dominant performance drying telling knows you made the right movie Sixers and book again this week, and that's another reason. Some of the money's coming on the Irish against Stanford here, but I think numbers a little bit too high and it's up to five and a half. I was prepared to take Stamford at a three and a half or anything higher this week and it kept going up and I'm going to go against the sharp money here. I I I don't like the Stanford offense of talent. I love the Stanford off. It's talent when k. g. Castello you go back to last year's game at Stanford thirty eight twenty cardinal win the score twenty one points in the fourth quarter to blow it open. I thought that was cost breakout game as a quarterback. He made some phenomenal throws to beat Notre Dame that night. Fourteen passes in that game. He had you look at the targets. He's got j. g. r. Sega, Whiteside talked about him on your podcast. Seems like every week, the guy's six, three. You know, he out muscle smaller defensive backs. You almost storm jump balls. He's he made a big cats there in that last drive that Stanford made to set up the field force overtime against Oregon in a nice spin move and cat out of bounds. I was a key play in that game. You look at the tight ends kaeding Smith and Parkinson big, big guy, six, five, six, six, huge targets. Not only that, but Cajun. Kasteler. Bryce love in the backfield. You know, in a year ago, this guy looked like the best player in college football. You'll talk about him a lot so far, but with these receiving weapons with Bryce love in the backfield in a Stanford defense, the really didn't look very good in the first half last week, but I think is better than that. I have showing against the ducks. I think the cardinal could go in and win this game. Sometimes you, you talked about playoff aspirations. So the other way to look at it is maybe the cardinal got the break, the needed to be a playoff. Off team last week at Oregon, because when we looked at their schedule sa- man, this is a brutal early season scheduled for Stanford. I don't know how they can survive while they got a lucky break last week at Oregon. Maybe that's what they needed that go to Notre Dame, right? That momentum and win this week. I'm not sure if a Stanford gets the win, obviously, but the five and a half, I think with the offense personnel to cardinal, have they have better offense. Notre Dame even with in book at quarterback. I, I wanna see David Shaw open up the playbook earlier in the game though. I thought it was funny last week. When Shaw said after the Oregon miracle, you know our team's gotta learn how to play sixty minutes Bubba. Well, how about you? Don't coach conservatively offensively in the first half until your team folks behind fourteen nothing. That's the ball. I hope it's, I hope he's wanting to win a bit of Lassen. It opens up last week. You saw opens up this week. You saw last week. The last point I'll make about Stanford Shaw. Being conservative is I'm at fourth in one play. He puts to offense environment in the backfield just basically tells the defense what we're gonna do. We're going to run the ball up the middle. She clog the running lanes with two offense. Ivine when you run into a twenty man box surprise surprise, you don't pick up the one yard you need for the first down. That was another idiotic call. I think he is going to open up. I like the over in that game as my favorite play the way. Not that I love the card that much, but I, it is one of my, this is my favorite play. You mentioned that you said you were looking at Notre Dame minus three and a half, but once it got up to five and a half, you're not just although no, no, no. No, no, no, no, no. I was looking at a place Stanford at three and a half or better. Gotcha. Okay. Stanford I was looking at Notre Dame copy. There's another big game, Penn State, Ohio State this one in Happy Valley white out game. It's a rematch of the block, the crazy fourth quarter from a couple years ago. And you like the home team here. Do big ten home dogs is going to be the theme here this weekend. I'll be honest with the listeners. I don't want anybody to think. I got huge plays this week. Sometimes come on plays a really like this week. I'm just lukewarm on this entire card. Nothing's jumping out at me. I've got five, five or six more games I'll talk about, but I'm not crazy about these plays. Now. I am going to play Stanford, push five and a half. I'm gonna play Penn State. I've already have plus four right now the market number, but I'm sure four is gonna come back. You know, state urban Meyer spec on the sideline. This whole saiga has been a soap opera. And I know that nobody appreciates soap operas more than you when you were my neighbor. I knew not call you between eleven and one in the afternoon, which is you would you know, sit on the couch and watch what was it young and the restless embolden, the beautiful you of soap opera. She's still watch those. And now I do not. I graduated from those too busy now or the jersey shore. You're getting those mixed jersey shore. You did watch that. I know that for sure. I, I've never seen one episode of that and I'm proud of that. So what you have in this game is only team, I think it's been distracted pretty much since the beginning of August, and they play pretty well on on the field despite it. But if you look at the schedule, it's not that impressive. Obviously, three cupcakes at a road game at TCU, or I like the horned frogs at night and they just unraveled in like a a five minute span and gave up three touchdowns, Ohio State struggled win that game. I thought TCU really played well. That night kinda took the fight to the buckeyes in the first two and a half quarters. Dwayne Haskins. There's no knock against him guys, completing seventy five percent of his passes. Got sixteen PD's one pick. He's a Heisman. I really think trace McSorley Heisman threat as well conceit hasn't missed saquon Barkley as much thought. And then the line still got a pretty good ground attack. McSorley accuracy is not the best if there's one knock against him. But you know if you compile a list of the top five strongest home fields in college football, Penn State has to be on your list, and this is going to be a night game, Happy Valley, James Franklin, urban Meyer things. Great match up. Franklin usually finds ways to choke away the biggest games. We've seen it the Rose Bowl again, so high state last year. Sorry against Michigan state last year, Franklin chokes away a lot of the games, but he is only twenty one and. Five run against the spread. I think of Ohio State survives the upset here. It's a, it's gonna come into field goal gimme Penn State plus a three and a half, four. And I think the buckeyes upset alert. Fault you there. You mentioned the of another big ten home dog? Yeah, I'm gonna buy vote here on the Braskin a lot of people in the media just trashing the corn huskers in Scott frost from undefeated at UCF to winless right now. He's only three, but if you watch I two games against Colorado, Nebraska, we've had a chance to be a pretty good football team. Next week, freshman quarterback. Adrian Martinez was out. They lost a Troy. So that results been exaggerated. I like toys, terrible football team anyway. And then the last week or tina's only plays a little bit of a half, maybe a little more than a half more or less and he's got the knee injuries, not the same as thirty nine, nothing at half fifty, six ten. A lot of people see those scores. They say the brass terrible. It's gonna take Scott frost four years to rebuild. I mean, come on this team is not that bad Martinez back. Then he said, the knee feels great. He's ready to roll. So here's the. So I like in this game a week ago, talked about Purdue on your podcast. I liked Purdue against Boston College produce the angry home winless team home dog Prut takes a beating Boston College right thirty to thirteen or wasn't that close game could have been thirty seven to seven. At one point, it was a boil out this week who's the angry hungry winless home dog. It's Nebraska and produce going in there little bit fat and happy after a four game homestand finally got the monkey off their back, win over Boston College. I think the Boilermakers ran for a fight this week and Scott frost made the comment. This is a game we can win. I agree with him. Take Nebraska. It was four last night. You might see the forest pop up again, very similar situation to the higher state Penn State number right now, the market numbers like three and a half. I think the Brask is alive home dog here. Skied volts you there. You've been spot on with these spots and it is a spot handicapped more than anything in this situation. Any other games jump out to. I'll give you a few more. And like I said, to be honest, I've not bet these yet, but I've got these circle. I'm going to take a look at them and they'd be playing later in the week because sometimes that you know, five college football games on weekends sometimes might bit fifteen or more so far I've Penn State. I'm going to bet Stanford today, and I have been Nebraska. I've got these also game circled. I think cow is an interesting home dog in Berkeley. Basically because we're the ducks psychologically after what happened against Stanford meltdown loss overtime. Obviously, we love Justin, Herbert guys of NFL first round draft, pick most likely, and he would say the public's probably going to be on Oregon considering what they saw last week, right? This offense to be explosive. Especially Wilcox great job with Kalki fence in the past year for those who are paying attention BYU's couple of big wins as you're at Arizona at Wisconsin. Calbears the Provo totally shut down to BYU off. It's just the Wilcox sit continuation of what he did last year. So there's. By the way, Wilcox former Wisconsin d. coordinator if there's a guy who can, I think so down this Oregon offense devise a scheme to do it. I think Wilcox's man to do it this week, and I think there's going to be a hangover effect for the ducks after what happened to get Stanford, you know, let's you know, not playing Dr. Phil here, I think it's pretty obvious when you look at it that that could be a possibility. So I think Cal could be alive dog and I'm looking at South Carolina at Kentucky and South Carolina's about a one and a one one or one and a half point dog right now. Last week, South Carolina was being disrespected. Beginning Gamecocks went into Nashville and blew out vandy. That doesn't mean a whole lot, but it is continuation of a trend will most jam. Actually, his teams played really well on the road the past couple of years and now Kentucky's a different role. If you wanna talk about role, reversals Wildcats. Go to Gainesville. They hadn't beaten Florida since. You know the mid nineteen eighties double digit dogs. Fourteen point dogs. Most we could pull the upset of Gators last week, Kentucky, ten point home dog, Mississippi State and what happens. They control the game. Blowouts BULLDOGS twenty eight seven. Now sudden Benny snow out of people talking about him for Heisman, the roles reversed this week. Kentucky is a team getting a lot of hype. All of a sudden that's not always a good thing. I think South Carolina can sneak in there and kinda humbled Wildcats little bit this week. That's another one I'm working. I talked about BYU seventeen and a half point dog at Washington. One thing concerns me about this game and I was on BYU by the way in both of its road wins and era Zona in Wisconsin of this team. It's physical experienced. These guys are tough. In the trenches. We gotta running backs, quality Canada, who's a blue-collar runner. They got a veteran quarterback and Tanner Mangum. I like a lot about the. The one thing that concerns me about this game is Washington really has played well in any week yet. Chris Peterson team's gotta be sitting on a big performance. Some point, maybe it's this week against BYU, but it certainly wasn't last week against a state. So I'm considering BYU picking a couple of losses playing Bill Snyder in the underdog role. And sometimes you get a little bit stubborn you stick with what worked in the past and when no orange works, you have to give up on it. So I think about a pass on k. state this week, the Wildcats can't throw the ball. They can run the Texas. Got a pretty good run defense. I don't. I don't think the play t state is home dog against Texas in the big twelve at dinner. Last week Snyder, thirty five, and we'll see thirty four and fifteen. I think his past forty nine as a dog, but maybe the games past and by and it's time to retire because if you watch the case state offense last week, it was a complete joke. So probably pass on that game. And another one I will look at is. Northwestern as a fourteen point home dog. Oh, XP. Oh, it's big, big ten home dogs. This week. I'll pass on Rutgers a private northwestern giving fourteen. The one thing that troubles me here are I would have played. This already is Jeremy. Larkin running back has been such a weapon Wildcats running it, but out of the backfield you've gotta think nineteen catches out of the backfield. He's been Clayton Thorson's like security blanket. He had to retire because spinal injury this week. He's retired from football. North western had a by. I love the situation coming off of by catching two touchdowns home against Michigan without Larkin. I'm a little bit concerned. So I need to look into this game a little bit more. That might be on north western as another big ten home dog. It's always tricky handicapping. Everyone wants to believe what they just saw and yet how this does not know snus terribly continue like I like Cal lot plus three. I'm on them, but this Michigan team, I don't know. I would not bet into them, but you're getting. They're not going to blow everyone out the rest of the way it's picking that spot. Just what you touched on with Washington on the opposite. They're not going to be at a b. plus level the whole way. They're going to have some eighth plus levels at some point, and you just wonder when that's gonna come. So it is tricky. Obviously, there's an ebb and flow to the season as the calendar approaches October, we gotta keep things in mind, but it is like you nailed, for example, you nail the Boston College flat spot last week, what other ones are coming up that is the art of nailing all of it. What talk little NFL. Yeah, real quick because we're, we're up against the clock here. So am I? That's fine. I give you two dogs. I like to NFL. I don't play all dogs every week, but just happens to be this week. I like, you know, most games, mccarter dogs. I've been on the New York Giants. Now, four weeks row. This is a fourth week took a loss of I two weeks stuck with the giants last week, and I think that offense with more like expected it to us. We he li- pass for two ninety. Seven saquon Barkley involved in the running game and the short passing game and Odell Beckham over one hundred yards receiving. That's why expect to see of giant. And I think they can do that against this New Orleans defense this week. Obviously the saints are going to get into some outs. I can't stop anybody right now drew Brees completing eighty percent of his passes. He's been playing at an insane level. He's tough to bet against saints on the road here back to back weeks giants come home, kind of. A must win type of game for their seasons you back to to and to hear the win over the saints. I think they have reasons to say positive and catching three and a half at home. I think the giants alive. I actually think they win the game this week. I'm gonna play the giants on Sunday and then Monday night, I'm gonna try to fade Patrick Mahomes in the chiefs on the road and the public's going to be on the key seaside. And I completely understand that. I think Denver defense been a little bit soft here the first few weeks, they played to soften the secondary receivers running wide, open all over the field. The gotta tighten up the coverage against KC, and I think they will little bit this week plus a pass rush. You gotta give them a home. You have von Miller Bradley Chubb and some of the pass rushers the Broncos. Have I go see something a little different this week. You see them get the Patrick Mahomes. He really has not been pressured. And with any quarterback, I don't care if it's Tom Brady breeze, whoever it is. You gotta get in their face, and I think the Broncos gonna find a way to get homes face on Monday night and they can kinda turn that game and their favor plus five within ver is a decent debt. I actually like a lot of what I've seen the Broncos offense. Even though case keenum has been a little Radic and as thrown too many picks here early in the season. I think the Broncos got a great shot. The pull the upset are plus five at the Monday night home. Dog imagine you can wait on that one because I think the numbers go up, Matt, thanks as always for the time and really good, really good breakdown of everything. Okay. You bet. Thanks ticker. Yep, you guessed it. I'm a speed bump, so I've got one job. I slow you down. So imagine I feel about Geico who does way more like not only could they save you money on car insurance, but they've been around for over seventy five years, giving people fast and friendly claim service. Out. Plus they got an iffy mobile app that gives you twenty four, seven access ow. Just doing my job buddy Geico expect great savings and whole lot more. Piece started ticket writer will handle a lot higher here in the last hour. Now he's a racing sports book director of the guys at work. You're calling me Mr. director and not looking directly into my eyes wave. We people, but in a whole new staff this year, it kind of Seinfeld esque move. He's rotate the guys. The material doesn't get stale. One happened in between hot tub and ESPN. Wow, that's. I never should've agree to KAI follow me around for a month that that was a poor decision guy, but it was a poor decision on my part. Yeah, kind really have the kid. That's what he was doing on his time. Yeah, that was his paternity leave. Just follow me around looking for the juicy quotes. It took some time there were we had. We had to find the right close, but I, I hope I hope you're you're honored because we couldn't have. We couldn't have everyone else get an open and not, you know, I appreciate it very much. You know much. I love the ESPN guys. They're always good to me. Well, that's my point. I think the ESPN platform you're like now big time. I think it all started on this very podcast. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, ESPN and and visa as well, but certainly PIN been a big part of it for sure. No doubt about it. That was my whole thing. That's true. Yeah, visa and guys, they were little late to the game there and the hot tub. Do we have to explain the hot tub and the we lived in the same apartment complex. So lot of times down the pool area and then not up. So I felt like that needed. We're talking about basically did this pot in the hot tub. About all and everything. Yeah, something like that like that. All right, man. Well, let's let's talk college football because there's a lot of ways we can go right where quarter of the way through the season or less excuse me over that because it's four games in and I have a piece coming out on Alabama. And I talked to Ed for this and talked to some other odds makers and town. I've talked to you bunch on this podcast as well, and this team is just different, so they're minus what do they might two twenty five right now to win at all. Yeah. Yeah, we have to twenty five year at the west just by comparison. This date a year ago, Alabama was plus one seventy five. Now they had a harder path because they had at Auburn for the iron bowl. But this team really the difference maker is to us to the untrained eyes bama's number one, therefore, now they're beating teams know this team to has even taken a snap in the fourth quarter, yet they lead the country in scoring. In both the first quarter and second quarter to Elision QB rating to a Leeds also in yards per pass attempt. So this is Sabin with a quarterback, something that's never happened before, and that's forcing you behind the counter to make adjustments. Absolutely. And it feels to me like Alabama can almost name the score. They want to win the game by Doug. Like I mentioned last week on the show. We saw some sharp money on tech say, I played texting him myself in that game Saturday. The only reason the aggies covered is because they took two out of the game. And I think when two left the game Jalen hurts went in, I don't think Alabama scored again, the rest of the game. If two had needed to, they could have just kept scoring touchdown on every drive. So we've never seen ala Bama with elite quarterback, play top quarterback, the best quarterback in the country, and it's just scary it. There's a perception out there right now that this team is unbeatable I would think it is. I don't think people really realize how explosive it is and at talked about that, their defense that's question marks coming the season in all MRs always been able to score points against Bama. They scored on the first play game and then scored. And he said that was the most impressive thing. He's seen all season. The fact that bama's shutout ole miss after that first play from scrimmage. And this too. I don't. They've had horrible quarterback play site from McCarron who was actually solid drafted. McElroy did pretty well while he was drafted. But those the only two quarterbacks that were drafted in the same era at Alabama fifth-rounder, seventh rounder this guy. Mike number one. Overall, according to milk hyper, do thousand twenty. I don't see why he wouldn't. I mean, he's he's so much better than every he's smaller. Baker mayfield's a little smaller Randall from what I saw from him on Thursday. I was one half of football, but I really like Baker Mayfield. I mean, if they can the NFL to gets into the right scheme, I think he could be very successful at the next level and he's got two more years of terrorizing college defenses ahead of them. It just ala Bama with an elite quarterback is just not even fair. So let's talk about this because part of the pieces that there's now a tax tied tax on this team because through three weeks of the season, they had covered every game by double digits combined fifty eight points that was the largest in all of college football. So there. Was a little bit of attacks, talked bro, better who laughed. He's like, I made the game twenty two. It lands twenty two and the line got up his highest twenty seven. There's now a Bama tax and it's, you know, it's getting some sharps involve your offsetting some liability because some of the square casinos in town are definitely liable to parlays teases and everything like that with Bama. Yeah. And even even this week, they're playing Louisiana Lafayette on Saturday. We one of our sharp groups come in on Monday, took Louisiana, Lafayette plus forty nine. That's that's tough. I think it'd be tough pill this wallow in Lafayette against Alabama, but these numbers are just getting so high. Doug. I mean, there has to be a point where the sharper groups are going to buy back against the crimson tide. And now we've seen that two weeks in a row. I mentioned last week they were on AM this week there on the rain Cajun's that that line of now forty eight is the largest between two f. b. s. schools and the last five years and that an MBA line was the law. Largest between two rate schools in five years. So Alabama is just sending, you know, sending the outliers out there or setting records, so to speak because they are that powerful. What is it like? The warriors when they added Durant is at the patriots. When they added rainy moss, we've talked about stuff like this, what does it feel like it? I guess it feels like the warriors added to ram because the war's already the best team in the league. I know they didn't win the title because of the LeBron James and Kyrie irvings relics and the sixteen finals. But the warriors were the best team that you're and now you're adding in, you know, at another elite piece to the puzzle, it's not quite the same as basketball, basketball p play five guys at a time. Football's a little more of a team game, but it's similar. It reminds me of that and we're starting to see some sharp groups get involved betting other teams to win the national championship, Doug because I think they're, they're perceiving it as these odds are getting too high. There's some other really good teams out there in the country right now, and we don't want to. Completely dismiss Georgia, Clemson, Ohio State. There's some other very, very good college football teams out there. Let's talk about some of those sharp pets side note. I know golden nugget has put up hypothetical point spreads for college football, playoff matchups. It's bam verse the teams, you just mentioned. They're all double digits even by seventeen over Oklahoma in these hypothetical matchups, but they're posted. So the match ups do occur. The action is ago what sharps, what action have you taken on the futures market, Heisman, whatever you wanna mention that is non Bama that makes sort of your eyebrows raise. I thought Nogi lines a little high. I understand why they were assize they are, but they looked a little high to me, oh, we took took a sharp at last night. Got Oklahoma, twenty five to one and the same gentlemen to Georgia at seven to one and I can see where he's coming from. I mean, Georgia's very, very good. Their problem is they might go twelve and lose the SEC championship game. And then if getting left out of the playoff, especially if Notre Dame runs the table, Notre Dame's gonna get a seat at the table. If they go undefeated, I'll tell you that much. Okay. That's why I don't think there's value on Georgia. I think there's value on all these other teams. You mentioned Notre Dame if they went out including this weekend against Stanford, they're in. And if you. Oklahoma as undefeated conference champs also Hieaux state and Penn State potential those teams are in. I think the key is. Alabama could lose the SEC championship game. They're only going to be favored by about seven or so to Georgia on a neutral field in Atlanta, if they lose that game, bama's not going to the playoffs. That's why I'm assuming all the sharps are betting those other teams, we don't want to assume too much. I don't wanna. I don't wanna sit here on September twenty sixth and say that if Bama loses the SEC championship game that they won't get into the playoff, but I won't. Those teams are undefeated. If Notre Dame runs the table, they're gonna get in there. Notre Dame. So that's one spot now and their scheduled right now if they can beat Stanford on Saturday, Doug, I think that they've got a very good chance of running the table. You know, Virginia Tech just lost their quarterback, Josh Jackson for the year. Florida state is is nothing like we thought they were going to be before the season US's off to a bad start. We've talked about that on the show. They already got the win against Michigan week. One Notre Dame will get in if they go twelve. Oh, and that's gonna leave somebody else out. Maybe that's the big twelve champion. Maybe the big ten champion. It's going to be hard. It's going to be impossible for to SEC schools to get in and Notre Dame to get in. That's that's not going to happen. I think Notre Dame is the real wild card in this whole thing. If conference champions are undefeated right? I think that's our, I think of Ohio State or Penn State's undefeated ops. The only one of them can because they play this weekend and then you have, oh, you undefeated and you have Clemson undefeated. I don't think. A one loss, bam, who just lost georgiana neutral? Not at Georgia. That was the argument I was making a year ago. It's like Auburn at auburn's different than losing on a neutral to Auburn. So that's why I was okay, and they obviously needed two loss Ohio State to win the big ten title. But I don't think one loss, bam. It gets in over undefeated conference champs, I don't. You're probably right about that all. I mean, I'll go just it wasn't like they way timber or something Clemson, you have to like their chances to go into feed and looking at their schedule in the ACC looking at that four state team, Ohio State Penn State, Oklahoma, they've got a lot of tough games coming up. The big twelve is so competitive. It's hard for me to believe Oklahoma could go undefeated. And then the big ten is well state and Penn State. You mentioned they played other on Saturday, Ohio state's gonna have to play Michigan. Of course, there's a lot of tough games left on both of those teams. All three of those teams schedules Clemson. On the other hand, they really have a good chance to navigate the ACC and get back to the playoff. I think this would be their fourth straight year in the playoff. Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies bobbly weighing in like it. I would agree with you, especially with the quarterback, which, but you never know they had they've stub their toll on the way in some surprise fashion. What was it Syracuse and then pit. In back to back here, they almost lost NC state to. They got bailed out by missed chip shot, field goal. So, but this year does feel like top-heavy more than most applaud Sweeney for making a quarterback change by the way, you know, Nick Sabin waited until halftime or the national championship game to make the quarterback change to the true freshman last year and he got away with it. Obviously, we all remember that. But I think Clemson really did the right thing. The offense sputtered a lot with Kelly Bryant and there, and I think Lawrence will give them a new dimension of the passing game. So I applaud that Sweeney for making that move. I do. And I think people said at the time the real foreshadow ours were saying that Sabin doing that sort of opened the door for other people to do that, and we talk about it all the time with four. Down decisions. Two point, conversions, whatever, punting, geeking, all that those are done, do sort of like coaching scared and doing stuff that doesn't get you heat more so right? Like extending the game in a voting, the criticism of it doesn't work out just doing the status quo. I think that's part of it. I think Sabin doing that enabled other coaches, the do it and not get blowback if it didn't work out. I maybe I'm stretching it too much, but I really think there's some. There's a connection of the doctor. I think you're right. But I think a bigger part of it though dog is Sweeney and saving a course. They've got a long leash at their respective pro Rengo dabbles at Clemson in the playoffs, three years in a row, he won the national championship two years ago, dabble Sweeney's not going anywhere no matter. Even if this quarterback move blows up in his face data swing. He's not going anywhere. And obviously Nick savings not going anywhere. So when you have that kind of job, stability, you can take those risks under percent, accurate hundred percent accurate. So let's get into some sharp action for. This coming weekend for the futures market, what jumps out? Well, first of all, let's talk about the big game Hieaux state and Penn State this game in Happy Valley three and a half. I was hoping it'd be three. I was just wondering what what you've mid midway through the week, whatever you can action have you drawn not a ton of action on that game now that that will be the most bad game of the weekend. Pretty confident saying that. And so far we've taken a couple nibbles on the dog on Penn State. A couple of guys took plus three and a half plus four on Penn State. Right now, we're at the buckeyes minus three and a half. We're gonna need Nittany lions in this game on Saturday. You know that the public, they're not going to be able to resist playing Hieaux state as a cheap road favorite in this spot. And it's certainly the marquee game this week. I think just the fact that the pros have not weighed in kinda shows that they kind of think that lines pretty good. That's a good line. I mean, obviously that's what it means. But usually they would gobble up the three and a half, but I. Think that means I, I would lean that Ohio State the right side here. We took a one one limit bed on plus four on Penn State plus four. And then we've had some buyback on Ohio State for more public is. But I think that like I won't be surprised if you can get four or maybe even higher than for come Saturday, just because there's going to be so much exposure to the buckeyes all over town. So you think that even though you were like laughing, we're gonna need a Penn State. So you think the public's gonna be on how state, but you're not moving off three and a half? Not right now. Now, right now we're set at three and a half. It looks like if we go to four, we'll get the the money to come in right away. I, it's still early in the week, Wednesday morning. We got plenty of time to work with this game right FBI by the way Penn State by one point, two points. Interesting. Not a huge. We've seen some ten point differences between FBI and Vegas. It's been interesting. You know, we've seen some bigger ones like seven eight points been almost like fifty fifty in terms of FBI being right. We're sarong in Vegas being right. Versus wrong. So sharp action there. What sharp would have sharps actually weighed in on for this coming weekend? I'll give you the headliner from the wise guys. We have here the west gate so far would be Cal Cal plus three at home against Oregon. That game Saturday night, man, Oregon coming off Oregon, just coming off an absolutely heartbreaking loss, just a, we need Oregon. So big in that game. Everybody was on Stanford. It was the, it was the prime time Saturday night game. The books needed. The book needed Oregon huge. That was a pretty devastating loss. And I can see why the sharper guys are leaning towards Cal here coming back, Oregon, coming off of that devastating, defeat. I don't even know where to start with that game. Oh, it's so bad, and you got a point the finger at Mario Cristobal and the Oregon coaching staff? I, that was a, it's it's on usual where we come into work on Sunday morning, and we're all like complaining about a college football, like bet, quote, unquote, bad beat because in college football, you see it every week. So we're kinda numb to it. But everybody was pretty bitter about that one that was a that was a really bad loss. Do we have to get into taking a knee versus running place? Like I, they could've taken. I mean, they could've. I think they took a Neil three times. They would have punted it back to them with like fifteen seconds left something like that. That sound right? It was. It was something like that. They just it was almost impossible for them to lose from that situation and they did. It's tough. I tweeted if you were like, oh, this is terrible. Take my point is if you're coach isn't doing all the Xs and os, right? What happens the rest of the week when you because they're going to read all the clippings like, why didn't you know it's one thing of players make mistakes, or he chose to run for it on fourth and one and got stuff like those are different. But when simple like execution, game management is botched, I think you start to lose. Some deference from your players. I agree with that. I, I don't think you're reading too much to too much into it, you know, and you really botch an end a game situation, the players all know it and they're going to start. I think they can't help a question you a little bit for that. And that was just a devastating loss for Oregon. I mean, they had that game in the first half. It looked like they were just going to run away with the game. So a goal, the foam, the goal line, I believe. Thing. But again, you know, David Shaw of Stanford. He's one of these coaches that everybody likes to make fun of the wise guys like to make fun of him because he, he kicks field goals and he's old school, football guy. All this guy does is win football games. He's been doing it for years there. So I don't agree with them a lot. You know, feel about kicking short field goals, but the guy gets results. Absolutely. He's an excellent coach. The only thing that's bothered me in the past is the lack of covering. I had them against USC. I just wanted to make sure that they cover. They just try to win by three that they actually just played offense as well as they were. They maintained their aggressive play on offense all throughout the game because I do think he brings in the oars a little bit, but that team was ready. They're well coached, look organ, beat him on the field through three quarters or whatever. But I, I'm, I'm impressed that they did not roll over and they stayed tough throughout. That was that was impressive to me. They stick to their game plan. They always do. And they stuck with it and they were very fortunate, but they got the win, they. All right. So anybody weighing in yet on that game against USC. Excuse me against Notre Dame. Not really. That's a game where we've seen a number go up from Notre Dame minus three and a half to Notre Dame minus five and a half. But that's I'm sorry, four and a half to five and half, excuse me, but that's really just been us moving with the market. We haven't really seen much money on that game as of yet. And like I said earlier, you know, Notre Dame wins this game. You've gotta like their chances to get to the college football, playoff, man. I mean, if they win this game, the schedule break so well for them, I think they're very, very, possibly going to be one of the four playoff teams. I agree. I agree. So it's interesting. The sharps have not gotten volved there. I wonder what the quarterback change does for Notre Dame's perception. Well, we saw a lot of wise guys take Wake Forest that was an early game on Saturday, Wake Forest against Notre Dame. That line came down. Notre Dame minus six and a half. It opened, I believe, eight eight or eight and a half, and that one didn't go very well. Notre Dame with a quarterback, change a whole new offense. You know, Brian, Kelly, I think is a really underappreciated coach. He's done a great job in south bend. And like I said, I mean this this team, they're right there, and they, they've got a, they've got everything to play for on Saturday. They could really really go far this season. If they can win this game, this total seems low. I think Stanford's offense is going to open it up a little bit. I think that was one thing that plagued him in the first half against Oregon way too conservative. I think if you open it up on offense like they did and can throw those jump balls. I, this total of fifty four seems low. Yeah, Stanford's going to have to open it up because I don't think they're going to be able to control this Notre Dame off on this Notre Dame offenses to good. You're not going to be able to keep them down for long sort of my point is I liked the Notre Dame. I've been seeing some of their games go under like, how is this? Like? It's been kind of fluky at times if that makes any sense. So it finally went over obviously that flew over last weekend. So, yeah, I, I think we found a play for me on sports center on Saturday morning. We talked about going. Sorry we talked. We talked about this after the first week college. Football. I said, you know, Michigan shouldn't act like the sky's falling losing at Notre Dame, not that bad of a loss. And we've really seen Michigan, right? The ship since then destroyed Nebraska on Saturday. And we've already had a sharp group weigh in on Michigan this week. They laid Michigan minus thirteen and a half on the road against north western. Well, that's interesting because Michigan has been pummeling opponents since that opening game loss. And I know we talked about, I believe in the pot. I was all over them minus twenty eight against western Michigan in the column, and I just thought that, yeah, the score was kind of lopsided for most of the game, but they were coming home and needed to get right. And they've covered to the next three. They did not cover us thirty seven point favorites against SMU, but look, they've beat up on him. They crushed Nebraska. Obviously, the corn husker went right into that game, but this'll be a nice test to touchdown favorites at northwestern. They should go in take care of business and just sort of maintain that brand of Michigan. I wouldn't forget about Michigan. You know, we talked about the college football playoff really earlier? I don't. I don't think be only because they have the chances to play these other teams. They get to play all those other big ten contenders head to head. They haven't lost a big ten game yet. I wouldn't dismiss them. I know at the state beat Penn State and beat whiskey in the championship game, they would have to win. I mean, obviously they gotta win out, but I don't think it's impossible. This team, I think Michigan is that good and we'll see. I mean, we'll see, but I, I really believe in this Michigan team. I really believe in Jim Harbaugh and that Notre Dame loss doesn't look as bad as it did a few weeks ago. Does it again if Notre Dame loses? Let's say this weekend, Michigan. If they went out, wolverines would go over Michigan even though they beat them, they lost at Michigan. Me locked that Notre Dame in game. One in Michigan will have better wins the rest of the way. So the wolverines would actually go ahead of Notre Dame if I were suffer a loss between now and the end of the season, I think so too, especially if you factor in the big ten championship. Yeah, I have a quality. I would think Michigan and I think that's our boss pitching to his team. What other, what other games of Sharp's weighed in on. You mentioned western Michigan. We saw western Michigan sharp at on western Michigan plus one there on the road against Miami of Ohio and Saturday, Miami of Ohio a team. We've seen wise guys fading almost every week this season. We thought we took a lot of money on Cincinnati against Miami Ohio. A couple of weeks ago Cincinnati won that game, twenty one, nothing. And we've seen a sharp group come in, took western Michigan plus one in that game. How about this one? UCLA plus ten and a half that games Friday night in boulder against the Colorado buffaloes numbers come down to nine and a half. Scary bacter- Kelly's Bruins right now. Doug, but respected group took the ten and a half points. Okay. So western Michigan was Owen three against the number and straight up until last week beat bowling green on the road. So there in the win column. So they're getting faded again, western Michigan plus one. Now, the Bruins here, like you said, Friday night, I Lynn game. If you like to say, this is a UCLA team that is Owen three just lost by twenty four at. Home to Fresno state and they were, and then they lost at Oklahoma by twenty did get the cover though, and then they lost at home to touchdown favorites against Cincinnati. So that's been the three game so far for these chip Kelly Bruins, but they have coming off a bye. So a little bit of extra time to prepare and they're going at Colorado here and they are nine and a half point said the sharps weight and the the buffaloes are three, no outright, so undefeated and they also have some extra rest as well. This is a this is an interesting game. I like how they've weighed in on this because it could be a perfect spot for UCLA to circle the wagons. I thought that was a really interesting one, and I liked that play after seeing that. I liked it better at ten and a half. Then I nine and a half, I'll tell you that. But I like that UCLA play. I'll give you one more produce minus three on the road against the Brassica Purdue starting to get their act together and Brassica their coach said at the best it's gonna get. It's gonna get worse before it gets any better for the. Cornhuskers. Yeah, we, this group laid Purdue minus three, you know, produce PowerAde and got so low there. You could actually take them plus seven against Missouri at home a couple of weeks ago. Now they're laying points on the road against the Brassica that says a lot about how bad of start the Cornhuskers are off to this year. If Missourian Purdue played at Purdue. The line me now. I think Missouri would just a small road favorite in that right now. I don't think it'd be lower. No, probably not. Missouri is still Missouri's. Got a pretty high profile offense with drew lock. Yeah. I mean, it wouldn't, but it wouldn't be seven. I'm just saying Purdue Purdue got to a point where they power rating solo. I'm really not talking about Purdue as much as I'm saying it's such an indictment of Nebraska, right that they're getting three and a half points at home here against Purdue that. I mean, this produc- most eastern Michigan, two weeks ago in at home. So that says a lot about Nebraska start their off to roll over Purdue plus the full touchdown last week at a team that was undefeated and back to back roads and obviously pretty one essentially, wire-to-wire this one Nebraska's had injuries. I mean they've been, they blew that gaming. It's Colorado, first of all. So the Akron game postponed, then they blew the game with Colorado, and then they've looked really bad against Troy and the wolverine. Well, Michigan, like you just said earlier, they're Michigan's crushing everybody right now. But yeah, it looks like it's going to be a really long year for Scott frost and Lincoln. I don't know what else to say. I, I really believe in frost. I think he'll turn that program around, but not this year. Any other games? No, that's pretty much a pretty much what I've seen so far as we tape this thing on Wednesday morning, but I think that Cal place specially as a real standout, we've had two of our more respected groups come in and take Cal, and that's about, yeah, that was my favorite play of the week. And I saw the plus three. I just think. You know, you're going to be really just that that one's gonna sting for a while and like I think cows good to cows got a really good defense and the team that a lot of wise guys like before the season. I remember that and Oregon, like you said that they have to be reeling after that defeat on Saturday. Right. Okay. I think that covers it. Good. Talk on Bama. Congrats on the open. You know your big town. So we gotta we gotta treat you with the proper respect and that tales the proper production on the podcast. I love a good intro, Doug, I do appreciate it. Who doesn't, who doesn't. I man, thanks so much, and we'll check back in with the NFL podcast guy, but duck you soon. All right, that does it for this college football podcast. Forget Stanford Stephen, the bear have their podcast, it's well it's under different umbrella. So go download rate and review. There's as well as this one. Thanks to Matt Uman's and John Murray tomorrow on the podcast. John Murray will return. We'll do a little baby bankroll bonanza recap the NFL card, and also Mike clay fantasy football analyst will join us, discuss some props as you. Many of you know, he discusses in breaks down a lot of wide receiver defensive back matchups for the fantasy audience. Well, he's going to do that for this podcast. Obviously, there's overlap with betting. So we're gonna have some fun talking to Mike clay on Thursdays NFL podcasts, hope you download that as well and we'll check back with you there on the next behind the best podcast.

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