M2Midwest #018 CFP Top 10 and Fire Brian Kelly

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It is Tuesday November Fifth Twenty nineteen welcome to menace to the Midwest. Are I guess. Part Two of our first episode of the week. Thank you for tuning in just before we get started. I want to bring up again. That we We finally got it done. We've got a tailgate November twenty third. We'll have state Penn state. It's a AH right next to Varsity club online avenue GONNA be legit. I mean covered. It's a covered parking garage area. They'll be it'll be heated heaters we have TV's vs in there. We'll have games on. We'll have the Fox big noon kickoff on at eleven great food great drinks all inclusive so fifty fifty bucks a ticket go check it out on our website menace to society PODCAST DOT COM. Go to the shop and pick up your tickets but big show probably gonna a little shorter than the normal because we're actually have a lot going on right now with our our new website. That's coming out and with tailgate. So what do WANNA address a couple things one. The coaching Carousel also really WanNa talk about Brian. Kelly and then I want to take a look at Ohio state in comparison to the other three teams that will probably be in the top four tonight when they announced the rankings and really take a look at where the buckeyes stand right now in every facet of their game so that being said let's get to the show the F. picked up by Michigan stakes. jalen Watts Jackson. I know may fortman. No more heap leap you barbecue. And you've in five seasons. Did you push this out to do it did you. Didn't do it lost today. The menace to I welcome to the show before we get into some Buckeye coverage. I Really WanNa talk about one thing. That might might be a week overdue considering the head a big a big win against Virginia Tech. And I'm talking about Notre Dame and Brian Kelly and they have great. You know final. Dr Ian Book Scores a touchdown to win the game and beat Virginia Tech. But it really got me thinking about the Notre Dame as a whole and I really WanNa talk about Notre Dame kind of the perception of Notre Dame and and where. They're at right now because Brian Kelly obviously has very solid foundation to Notre Dame and it's it's a foundation that most would be be proud of and they would they would enjoy joy. But here here's the issue at Notre Dame that I see as I hear people talk about Shit. Brian Kelly be coach moving forward or do they need to move on on or do they need to upgrade. Do they need to take a shot at Urban Meyer. I mean he wants said it was one of his dream jobs. And it's really all that's left on his bucket list. I mean he went to the. SEC won two national championships went to his dream school. How Status Childhood Favourite School won a national championship? Really the school. That's left that's on his kind in a bucket list being Catholic and having coached there is to be the head coach at Notre Dame and do the same so I could I could see the allure. And here's the issue. Hugh at Notre Dame right now Notre Dame has put their fan base in a very tough situation by being arrogant by not joining a conference. They are truly early left with one. Barometer of success and that barometer is national relevancy no conference championship will soothe their desire to be relevant. It's not possible. They have an option win at all or nothing. Brian Kelly more than likely. It's going to go into this year. Make a bowl game and depending on the match up might finish eleven and two so the question is for Notre Dame fans and really the country. Is that good enough here. We are in the midst of year. Ten of the Brian Kelly era of fighting Irish football with an empty trophy case bearing fingers in an itch on our head that needs needs scratched. Is it time. Time for change. Should Notre Dame move on from Brian. Kelly that's the question that people are talking about right now and that's the question not have or or on the other side of it. Should they join a conference. See Notre Dame is extremely popular kid in high school that comes back to their twenty year reunion and still talks about the play against their cross town rival his junior year when he scored the winning touchdown. Isn't it time to move on Notre Dame and start a family stop living in the past. The glory days are long in the past I think is time for Notre Dame to get a job and start a new career. Join a conference or your move on from Brian Kelly. If the only barometer for Notre Dame success is going to be national relevancy Brian Kelly has proven through ten years. He has a long resume showing that they will never be Alabama. They will never be Ohio state clemson right now. They're not going to get to that level will he is maxed out and it's really high. It's a really high maximum capacity. But if you're only barometer for success is national championships a national relevancy. If that's the only thing you can win nowadays. Is it time to move on or is it time to rethink your conceited self perception of your university and join a conference. The real problem is Brian. Kelly is stable. He's that that girl you date. That has a good job is somewhat attractive but doesn't ignite a fire of passion inside of you. What if you break up? Could you find your true soulmate. Filled with passion could Notre Notre Dame follow suit of Georgia. LSU ETC and ditch the safe coach for a potentially elite coach thing about George got rid of Mark Richt guy won ten games almost every year LSU LSU gets rid of less. Miles won a national championship. But look at them. Now they're thriving under the sexier girl in school. It's risky though they could end up like well. Notre Dame of two thousand five fire tyrone Willingham to get the hottest girl in school urban Meyer and then end up with Charlie Weis. That's terrifying risk to take when you have a quality coach. A really good coach in Brian. Kelly do you take that risk and so I wanted to really look at Brian Kelly. I mean the guys you can take the academic scandal where they had to forfeit wins and losses. Because I get it. That's not as on his official record right but he won those games as a football coach. So I count them He's eighty seven thirty seven in his tenure thus far says seventy percent win percentage. That's pretty damn good. Never I mean never mind having to vacate those win. Twenty twelve and twenty thirteen the highest win percentage actually at Notre Dame since Lou Holtz posted a one hundred thirty and two record winning seventy seven percent of his games. So Brian Kelly has brought Notre Dame back out of the slums considering Charlie Weis one fifty six percent of his games tyrone Willingham one fifty eight percent. Bob Davie fifty eight percent so Brian Kelly has taken them back to a higher ground but this is a school that can only be satisfied fight with national championship and they have been starving for forty years without one. Brian Kelly four in bowl games and the four he won. Were irrelevant irrelevant. The only three that were actually relevant were embarrassing twenty-eight team get blown out in the playoff by Clemson thirty two three twenty fifteen get blown out in the Fiesta Bowl forty four twenty eight and then twenty twelve embarrassing loss to Alabama forty two fourteen being the number one team in the country. The the reality is this is a notre dame problem not entirely a Brian Kelly. Problem is Brian Kelly Owen. Five top five teams. Yes but Notre Dame mm-hmm has been one in eighteen against top five teams since two thousand long before Brian. Kelly has this issue. Notre Dame had this issue and Brian Brian. Kelly didn't fix it. That's the issue. There have been more disappointments and to be honest flat out disgusting practices by Kelly than there have been seasons or games gains or even moments to be proud of like I mean what are we talking about mishandled a sexual misconduct and in tragic tragically the the young girl that was involved committed suicide or demanding to practice outside against educated advice and the death of a student on the video staff. I mean my oh my God. This guy isn't producing rings. He's catching bodies. And then there are the basing moments of BCD the blame complained defend urban. Meyer our says I mean publicly blaming Sam Muster for centers snaps for a loss. I don't know a head coach of the does that in the media blames a player. You don't do that and then ripping his team a new one on the field against USC. Before at at halftime the team was not allowed to go in the locker room. He got them together and rip their ass before allowing them to go into the locker room. I've never seen anything like it. He kicked a handful of players off the team for academic misconduct. Obviously the the most prolific one was hopeful Everett Golson the quarterback had an academic scandal and forfeited two years. Worth a winds. This is the pompous Notre Dame. And you know the unacceptable college football narrative like yeah but he wins. You can get away with that stuff if you win problem being. He doesn't win he should have probably been fired. After the abysmal. Two Thousand Sixteen season going four and eight but he and his agent agent. Here's what happened and I remember hearing about this. He and his agent put together a masterful plan. Somehow Brian Kelly four and eight and his name was getting thrown around for NFL NFL jobs. It even got him an interview he goes to the interview and comes back and now he's like you know you're always more attractive to people when other people want you right well now the NFL wants him. He must be really really great. So Notre Dame really wanted him back. That was a perfect opportunity to part ways. Ace tried to go get you a an elite coach so the question is will they do it now. He's fifteen in nineteen eighteen against top twenty teams forty four percent win percentage and even worse. He's to twelve on the road versus the top twenty team. He's he's lost his last eleven road games against the top two thousand eighteen eleven. He's in the last eleven games. He's eleven I I don't. I don't know how you can have the national championship. Be The only barometer of success for your program for your school and then lose every time you're not not at home against a decent opponent. It's just absurd so if Notre Dame wants to have that that benchmark inch mark that that bar that grade card of a national championship is the only option. The only way to say we did it. The need to move on from Brian Kelly. He's not that coach and what they really need to do is go after a big time. Big Time coach. I mean obviously. Urban is the name that will get thrown around on and I truly believe he's done coaching at this point. I think all the all the chatter about USC and all that stuff. That's that's not reality. I think he's He's done coaching for now. I I think you really likes his Fox. GIG and Notre Dame would be school. That could get him out of retirement. I guess you call it but I think they need to go after them if if not him they need to go after a big time. Big Name coach like Matt Campbell. Who I think has that star quality has that Kirby Smart Nick Sabin even urban Meyer Dabo Sweeney? He has that allure to him. I believe he is one of the next superstars in the national landscape. And if someone can do it he's a midwest guy he's got the pedigree he's got the background so I think that's not going to go through every candidate they could get but he's an an example of someone that might take you there or go get a sexy coordinator that has been the recipe for success at a lot of schools. Now I mean Oklahoma Ohio state Georgia Georgia shoot even Clemson. daboh never was a head coach. I mean all these teams are seen in the top. The top ten there was no head coaching experience in the top top. Five they were big time coordinators. So I think Notre Dame needs to make a decision they either need to be okay with this. This foundation foundational coach that has a great foundation. Has Success never going to take it over the wall. That is a national championship caliber caliber program. That's what they have at Brian Kelly so if they want to stick with that I think they should join a conference so that they can play for something. Kids don't want to just play regular their season games and then go to the the what the Meinicke Car Care Bowl. No one wants to do that. They would have played for a conference championship. Go Get a ring championship. Week is different different. I used to tell my players all the time. And we'd go to Indianapolis or even at Florida. I felt it when you go to Atlanta for the SEC. Championship game the feeling you have during championship being shipped week is unlike anything other than the playoff. Honestly we we played in fiesta bowls. We played cotton balls. We played in these other ball games. And and the feeling was not even remotely close to going to Indianapolis. Because there's this buzz. You go to the stadium for a walk through NFL stadium and you just the hair stands up on your shoot the hair or stand up on the back of my neck right now just talking about it. It is different and Notre Dame players. Don't get to experience that they've yet to they go to the playoffs and experience it and then just get blown out and ran through. And then that's it. That's that's that's what you got Notre Dame so I think that's what they need to do but I think they need to either join a conference or move on from Brian Kelly. It's time to get a guy in there they can. They can be that nationally relevant coach. Because that's your that's your barometer right now a national championship. And you're not GonNa win one so you probably need to make a change one way or the the other change the barometer or change the coach one of the two but I do want to get into. I want to really look at Ohio state. I WanNa talk about the top ten. That's coming out later tonight. And who who I see as the top five to ten programs in college football or I want to talk about Ohio state right now and it before these rankings. Come out I want to put this show out so that I can get it off my chest and before I am biased by some college. Football playoff rankings. But I believe that Ohio state will be the number one team in the country. They certainly should be as I evaluate all the analytics. I watched the film on all these private top ten teams. I've watched I don't know six seven. Eight games of each of them. I don't I don't see how it's even close. I know some of these teams Alabama. LSU Or playing at an extremely high level and people can can be critical one Ohio states. Who have they played nonsense despite having the strongest schedule to date of the undefeated teams? But I wanted to look at. How good is this Ohio state state team and the one thing? That's just I mean it's glaring to me and I think everyone listens knows how much I really look at pro football focuses analytics. Senate actually have a new one coming that we're partnering with that. I think is phenomenal. The but we'll talk about that next week but you look at pro football focus right. They have whoever they have interns. All all these people I get it. There's a lot of margin for error a lot of human error but they great everyone. They great every play every player. Every aspect tackles tackling. I mean you name it under pressure you can get any analytic want from them so they great. They have an overall grade for the team right. It's out of a hundred and it's a percentage right and Ohio state right now. Their you're great is a ninety eight point two out of one hundred and I wanted and it's number one in the country by I think two or three percentage points and I wanted to take a look at historically. How how good is that? And here's what I found most years. That is almost five years. I mean it's we're talking. Four or five percentage points better in I went back. Let's see seven this in the last seven years the like the best the best two grades last year Alabama Clemson were ninety five and ninety six twenty seventeen there was there's four teams at a ninety four and what's crazy is Alabama has been the highest or in the top to the last five years. Obviously I mean if you watch the film or you've watched the results the evidence but anyways twenty seventeen ninety four two thousand Sixteen Alabama Ninety Five Twenty Fifteen Alabama Ninety four point nine twenty fourteen Alabama ninety three point eight two thousand thirteen Florida state. Ninety three point nine Ohio State is at a ninety eight point two. That is absurd so before I get get into these analytics and in comparisons about Ohio state I do want to put out my playoff rankings. This is the first time that I'll put out an official top ten and I will tweet it out probably tomorrow. Ro but my my playoff ranking right now is Alabama are Ohio state number one Alabama number two LSU number three clemson number number four Penn state number five Baylor number six Georgia number seven organ number eight Utah Number Nine and Oklahoma Oklahoma number ten and the the one that I think will probably end up not being where they are today. Baylor I love Matt Rule. He's a good friend of mine. I love what their team looks like. I love how they're playing. I think they've got a real shot to to knock off Oklahoma a an an Texas. I think it'll be the most competitive that they've been in in a long time in those games. But I don't see them as a true playoff contender right now. But that's the only one that I think might be a little bit inflated late. But they're undefeated. You have to put them above some of these other teams and I'm sure the committee won't but to put Georgia ahead of Baylor would be criminal. I mean what Georgia after losing to South Carolina playing a tight game with Notre Dame. I get beat Florida but it was not like a landslide. Victory in Florida is above average at best so to put some of these teams above undefeated Baylor's unjust and so that's my playoff rankings. But I think state is the only one on there that is clear cut concrete spot at number one and that's that is literally without bias that is based on film watching the film and looking at the analytics team in the country. That's playing on the level of Ohio state right now. Oh and I will be honest with you. I think the team. That is the closest in Alabama. Obviously I put him at two so looking at I. I wanted to run run. The menace menace analytic formula on these potential matchups. Right so I. If Ohio state was one in Clemson was four in the season ended that that would be the matchup Ohio State Clemson in the playoff semi-final and then they would play the winner of Alabama. LSU If that if that ends up that way and already mentioned what. I believe could happen as Sabin could bench to basically concede Lsu game and then have that narrative for the first first one loss team to get in because they lost to Lsu. Starting quarterback didn't play heisman candidate bla-bla-bla so anyways if this ended today and these were the four Ohio state would come out and believe it or not. They would the analytic say that Clemson's defense would have the advantage over Ohio state's offense just just in overall offense defense you're talking about pass efficiency rushing average total offense scoring explosive plays etc etc etc but outside of that the state has the advantage in every category. So that would be the real the real test would would just it feels in this offense be able to explode on Clemson. Would they be able to move the ball on Clemson. Because Clemson's defense has been playing exceptional and Brent Venables has them doing things on defense and to be honest Clemson's always twice vice a thorn in Ohio state side. And you just look at Clemson. What they're doing and it's phenomenal? I mean they. They're limiting explosive plays ninth in the country. They're fourteenth rushing average. The third best pass efficiency defense in America and Ohio. State is no slouch in those areas. Now we're Ohio state has not been doing is getting those explosive plays consistently really. I mean thirty. Second in the country creating explosive plays. And that's really from the pass game. They're seventy-second the country and explosive passes. So I would be nervous about Ohio state on offense against against Clemson now fortunately Ryan Day and staff and Kevin Wilson. They have done a great job in critical situations so I would imagine. Brian Heartland does down. It's similar similar formula to when I was there I'm not entirely sure who is in charge of it but it doesn't matter they do a great job putting together those critical situation Asian packages and then that is why they'll have six spot advantage on Clemson. Here's why I don't think Ohio state would lose the game. Their defense defense is head and shoulders. They get the checkmark from Clemson. I mean you're talking about twenty-three ranking differential offense offense defense and critical situations. They're twenty eight spots better than Clemson's offense. So how defense is the the real winner in this game. We'll have state clemson so so that would be the one vs four right so I wanted to go to the next best next worse team. Because I believe close the worst of the four but you look at. LSU We'll have state landslide landslide favorite against Lsu. I mean you're talking about twenty spot. Differential offense when Ohio states on offense critical situations the state has a thirty five spot differential that means they're thirty five rankings better than Lsu when Lsu's on Defense Ohio states on offense and it's a critical. Oh situation like a third down fourth down red zone any critical situation where you have a specific package so that's concerning LSU's defense. Furthermore as good as Joe Borough has been as good as their receiver core is an as lackluster as their run game. It has been. We'll have state has a pretty marginal or pretty pretty decent advantage on. LSU's defense or on Lsu's offense if state took the field on Saturday against Lsu. They would have in one thousand nine spot higher ranking for their defense than. LSU's offense so you're talking about an advantage of nineteen spots critical situations a little closer seven and a half spots. But I think that matchup up is a key matchup if that were to happen in the postseason. Because I'd be interested to see how else how how state secondary can contain taint those receivers in Lsu and Joe Burl and boy what you talk about a story line. How cool would that be? Ohio State takes on Joe Borough in the playoffs that would be. I don't know the Buckeye fans are ready for that. And now the team that I think gives Ohio state the greatest challenges Alabama and I mean sounds cliche. Sounds like year-in-year-out Ear Inn. You're out conversation but Alabama's defense is really good. I mean Ohio state would have a one. They they would be ranked one spot at higher when they're on offense against Alabama defense in this analytic model now in critical situations. They're twenty one and a half spots better but ultimately in you gotta how's the Defense Alabama's offense have has a four spot for position advantage on Alabama so anyways that was a lot numbers a lot of analytics. What that means to me is the greatest? Matchup would be Ohio State Alabama right now because both sides of the ball matchup really interestingly. Interestingly I mean Alabama is the eighth best pass efficiency offense Ohio State is the fourth best pass efficient offense and I mean you just go through all these analytics and it's like man. I think this is this that would be a the toughest test would be running the ball in Alabama and then also how are they going to stop too and company the Jalen Waddell and Jerry. Judy how are they going to be able to stop them. We'll jeff will ultimately can damon are net. Cover those two. That's the question when we know Jeff Okuda will be at least in the ballpark of a be able to cover. Those two or t higgins from Clemson but we'll damon are net net. Be prepared to have that. I don't know bag moment where he needs to go. Make some money will. Is that possible. And that's I think the real question question mark as you look at Ohio state as they stand today. But obviously we'll get into their matchup with Maryland. Not Not a great match up. I mean they. They opened up at six touchdown favorite which assists absurd. But I mean I'm just I will tell you on film evaluating these teams. I'll have stays the best team in the country if they're not number one. The biased in the committee is absolutely outrageous. There's there's it's not even close. They probably right now on film are the Best Team I've seen in the last seven years and that's just the reality of it. I'm not saying they are better than the the two thousand fourteen team or some of these other national championship caliber teams. But they're playing like it right now and they're film is their resume is and so the question in is Ken. The committee lose the nonsense bullshit. Bias that they have tried to set up these these matchups right now and will they actually put Ohio state at one. Because that's who should be at number one Ohio state but we'll see we'll see how the the rankings play out. I mean we'll see we'll see what the committee you'll see a lot. You'll really be able to read into onto the committee's bias. And their how they feel about teams by where they put them not only like who I think we all know who the top four will be outside of some chance that Penn state gets gets thrown in there over. I don't know a Clemson or an Alabama or LSU which. I don't think it's GonNa Happen. But it'll be interesting to see where they placed this these teams in the top four and then the next question will be. Where did they place those those out? outlier teams those outsiders because that's going to provide a lot of insight into win Alabama. Lsu Play in one of them loses. Who has the potential in the committees is to jump into the top four? And it's GonNa be interesting to see but kind of going back to that. Brian Kelly conversation sation. I don't think they're gonNA fire him even though I think they should join a conference or get rid of him. I think there are two options. I think Brian Kelly's a Helluva coach. I think he's does a good job job. Not a great job but a good job and I think they really either need to decide is this is this. What Notre Dame is now it has been for forty years so is it still and then if if not we need to go get a different guy but it made me think that especially with the Florida state opening and I said it on twitter? I don't understand why Brent Venables is not getting more war traction for this Florida state job or even the US job or any of these big time jobs talking about what I just said a minute ago. These big time programs grams are going away from the proven head coach. Nonsense that gets thrown around. And they're hiring big time coordinators and it's working out. I mean you look at Clemson in Georgia Ohio State Oklahoma. All the number of these schools hired coordinators. And they're they're right in the M- in the thick of the playoff conversation. So so I believe Florida should hire for Brent Venables. Why not? That's the formula that that has been a hot trend and it's worked is anyone hotter and the coordinator donator level than Brent Venables. I mean his defense is our year-in-year-out. I'm he's got a long resume of being one of the best defense coordinator in college football the other one one that I don't think people have talked about enough. Is I think might take take a swing at James Franklin. I think James Franklin because when I talked to James Jane Franklin a handful of times he has the exact personality of who I envision being the head coach at USC Very Pete Carroll Esque so I think USC would hire James Franklin and then Penn State would go higher matt rule from Baylor Matt rule as a Penn state nittany lion through and through played there. He's a PA Guy. I think think you're you're gonNA find much better. Fits with James Franklin going out on the West Coast Kelly lifestyle that's how he recruits. That's how they they do things. Is it Penn State and right now and I think it fits. USC very well. And then I think PENN STATE GOES ON HIRES A PA guy at Penn state nittany lion and goes and gets Matt Rule Cool and the last one that I've said a couple times rutgers hires Graciano like I said a month ago. I think that's I think that will happen. We'll see if if I think that's what they're trying to get done. We'll see if it happens but it just it. It makes too much sense. But that's what I think landscape. I like I mentioned before this is going to be a little bit of a shorter show. Got A lot going on. But we're going to an really the the most of what we have going on did the analytics the the studying for this Alabama LSU game. This is the game of the year. This is the most important game that will be played to date obviously and potentially for the entire season so really excited about that preview. Show we're going to put out Thursday it's GonNa be great analytics. Great analysis really fired up to dive into it with you guys and as we always say if you're interested in sponsorship and advertising reach out sponsorship at menace to Society Society PODCAST DOT COM. Or just you can reach out Zack Z.. Ach at menace to society. PODCASTS DOT COM. Also if you're interested in joining the movement the expansion that we are almost done we're gonNA launch it here in the next two weeks at least the initial version of this new website. WE'RE PUTTING OUT MENACE TO SPORTS DOT COM. You can I mean it's not there's nothing there yet but it will be but if you're interested in joining reach out we've gotten all your submissions and we've we've read through almost all of them were hopefully going to reach out reach back out to the people that submitted things in the next week or two and hopefully will launch US website and get this thing Roland but definitely check that out definitely hit me up and then also check out the tailgate. You won't want WanNa Miss It. It's going to be a great time booking deejays and doing

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