DLD 278: ICAOnt even figure out WHO is managing China policies

Automatic TRANSCRIPT

you're listening to dots lines and destinations travel. podcast with host Stephen Seagraves vase moon and said Miller. Hello and welcome to dot lines and destinations episode. Two hundred seventy eight. I am Stephen. seagraves joined by Seth Miller this week in false memory. Gentlemen how are you great excellent. I'm doing all right. It's a sunny day in Portland. So that's weird. It is eh passport on him. That's two strikes. What was I supposed to have done? Is it snowing in New Hampshire. It is not. It's actually. It was warm here. So maybe that's the problem. Yeah See Z.. It's everything's weird wars relative but it was about freezing i. It's warmer at home in New Jersey than it is in San Jose at the No. Oh so let's we touched on the corona virus China and things that were happening During the last I episode But things have developed rather quickly since that episode. So what's happening seth. What is it that you see happening? As far as travel Complete complete breakdown in coherent and coordinated decision making that fair. Now that may be a little overstretching thing but the short short version is the World Health Organization like an hour after we finish according to last episode so early last rally last week last week came out with advice declaring a global health crisis and interesting about that is it was specifically. We are declaring global health prices because China has done a bad job of managing things but in order to make sure that we can have coordinated and consistent rules apply for making sure that access remains open that you know the economy's still continue to move a Cetera et cetera and the reaction action from basically everybody else was. Are you kidding me. Ange closing the borders one by one country started to inst- institute checkpoints all passenger to be quarantined or flights weren't allowed to operate or passengers. Who touched watched? Chinese soil are not allowed to enter Or will be quarantined for fourteen days if they're non-citizens is the US rule right now. There's a lot going on. And and none of them are consistent and all of them are basically shutting down air travel to Info to from and through China and the. US rule is self quarantine for fourteen days. Zip Your citizen if you're not as a citizen Or don't have a green card. You'RE NOT GONNA be allowed in unless there's an extraneous circumstances do family. Yeah it's severe. Yeah because I mean the initial last week they declared it an epidemic. Do I think last night I had this morning i read is now officially a pandemic. Yes the CDC has said it's uncontrolled down because of how far There's there's no controlling so it's we're trying our best in. We'll see where it goes. Which I mean right I'm meteorologist? I'm not a doctor of any sort art. That seems an interesting claim. Given the level to which some of these some of the numbers stand right now. I'm not so sure I would call it. pandemic level sporadic but compared to compared to some of the other similar. You know weird outbreak kind of situations. We've had over the past decade. This one is certainly attracting a lot of attention. And at but I don't feel like it's gotten quite as spread as far as quickly We clearly have more connected Aviation Infrastructure Sheriff especially within China when compared to ours than volume of traffic within China's double a triple bypass a lot more opportunities for spread. Also just a lot more people but also I just. I don't know the numbers I've seen so far suggests that declaring it that way might be stretching things at part of the declarations because they don't know how it spreads or how quickly quit spreads right. It's unlike SARS which pretty instantaneous right. Now what the belief is that. It's a two. We can commission period and there's also speculation that the numbers being published about China are not exactly accurate. Yeah and that sort of you know dovetails into one of my one of the things I wanNA talk about. Today is that sort of general attitude seems to be pervasive globally compared to the. Who saying no no no. Everything's fine and to a lesser extent. I kau the international civil ablation organization which is a UN agency? SORTA saying everything is Okay and doing other bizarre crap beyond that but isn't the the. Who an extension of the UN is. Well yes both our UN agencies right and so one of the things we've seen is some really questionable behavior from Ike Albion as people have been digging in Thurs a fair a number of Chinese nationals in leadership positions. That Kaos you have to wonder. Is there a bias to the information being published. Yes absolutely And you know I I like like the whole. Who thing we want to get this out there to coordinate this do the right thing. Except if you're Taiwan yeah and so one of the really interesting things we've seen is like like early on but recently Italy banned all flights from China and that included Taiwan yet they actually went to the extent of issue and not him. Yeah I mean that's a good way to make sure lists aren't confused. Might be far more useful than Oh look. There's a crane over there far away from your airport It's it's. It's interesting that they did that eventually. They walked back to Taiwan bid. But you know if you just say China and you follow you and rules argued that includes Taiwan which gets to be super strange and interesting and challenging. The secular state issued a statement last week on Friday. The they did not agree with the way that I was behaving regards Taiwan. I don't know what the real intent of that was just to accept embarrassing them publicly. But I mean isn't it isn't did she say it's kind of two faced too you. You want to include Taiwan for political gain But at the same time don't include them in the health response From an airline perspective or even a response perspective of getting people on the ground where they need to be. Yeah it's there's also some weird challenge our challenge in some interesting sort of politics politics going on with Taiwan and then looking at how the US is dealing with the China in like the trade him that what was the trade war that maybe you the phase one whatever settlement whoever calling it There's an interesting sort of position their of like did the does the. US Even care that the fact that a a third of the flights are now basically all the fly between the China are gone right and so that was a decent amount of the cargo left between the two countries so in the conversation. WHO'S GONNA buy? I want where those numbers aren't right. The phase one trade deal was you know it's it been successful. Wasn't necessary step toward moving forward. In their potential risk of further returning the embargo or other things are the tariffs kind of situation on embargo returning the tariffs and if there's no way to move goods between the two countries that makes it very very hard to reach those number but but Two things I I think the China Eastern Chinese carry. That's cancelled flights states. I don't know if the others have and have ups or Fedex canceled me. I think actually actually ups. I saw something summer suggesting ups had changed some of its flights. Um and there's just dedicated cargo carriers. That are not ready to actress but he no belly. Cargo are not allegations like ARGO bucks'll freighters if So those those do matter those are are you know for the higher value stuff it ends but I think a lot of that travels belly cargo. Just because it's it's more frequent timing but how much of that stuff is going to like Hong Kong via ground transparent coming on a decent amount. But it depends. I mean there are not soft incentive attentive when stopped at a that are just as easy and fast. Oh agreed no doubt but Goes to Hong Kong. Because there's just so many more coming into Hong Kong for belly car at a lot. More the dedicate carriers going into Schenn's on shore but not in the way of much in the way of Mercia fights but it's interesting I was reading that. A number of healthcare workers in Hong Kong or `boy cutting striking. Whatever you WANNA call it because they want the grand borders closed with China because right now they're still open that? Were recording us on this Monday. Yeah it's Monday Tuesday morning Hong Kong. I actually think that they're trying to do that. that something. Something wasn't asked about that for Hong Kong today with two to close the land. The close most of the borders and put some site cited better Jackson place. This is like a double whammy for Hong Kong. Though coming off the last six seven months running into this I mean this the US to bring the the economy of local communist test reaching and certainly the airline's mechanic provide this right. We don't Hong Kong Airlines won't but will cafe. That's that's that's a tough recall. I mean I think you know it's interesting. That Chinese carriers has hasn't been a ton of Chinese carriers have canceled service to the US but cafe definitely hasn't right like they haven't reduced adduced service but they also have a isn't there a directive in place that there any crew that touches mainland China won't be allowed to continue on other places. This isn't that some kind of new thing that came into play just yesterday. Cafe hasn't reduced anything the last two weeks. They did a number reductions in the last few months yet but they haven't done anything last. We'll see if they do anything someone I saw someone. I think seth it's your friend was suggesting one of the ways cafe can move forward. is they would split up their dragon. Flights dragon flights operated mainland China only basically and everything else would be operated by true cafe metal but I think Kathy has dropped a lot of mainland China. Service already suspended Dragon House. Yeah I mean there's so much I saw chart of like just the mainland Chinese cares them what they suspended and including including their domestic network. It's like asked Wanderley half half of lot of forty a lot of mid forties to sixty and turn frequencies cut in the edge. That was just today. But it's serious. This is like I mean. I don't think we've ever seen it even after September eleventh. We didn't see we've never seen someone get cut off like this. This is pretty much isolating. China is a country. Yes for sure. any other thoughts on corona virus response by cow situation with regards to twitter absurd the blocking of people. Yeah and I know the guy who's managing this. I've met him before so in some ways. I have some sympathies. But their policy is basically if you post something that we don't believe is is accurate representation of what does how it works. We will block you because that's misinformation and we won't be associated with that and the number of different ways. That stupid is hard to count fake news. I'm Nestle I know I just tried to like. Yeah sure okay but just blocking everybody who says something is doesn't I use my point with that as it doesn't change the conversation and it only makes it worse for for the account gets hacked. I don't know that people care that much. There's that taking account like in our world people sort of care but it wasn't enough to make the. US government issued a statement. So we can. We can expect expect the duct lines and destinations twitter account to be blocked. So let's go ahead and say it. I talked to other people and they've like he said. Oh Yeah I've been blocked already. I don't care you know so anything. You say bad about a cow or any kind of questioning of anything that goes on because they are they also have A. Isn't there a scandal on an I.. Cows well right now. Yes so I mean anything you say that questions their ethics or motives a gets gets himself. I mean the problem is it. It makes six one question their credibility when they react like that any. This is supposed to be a you know a bipartisan organization. That's supposed to be doing right for the people and unlikely have an agenda with the way the responding today is supposed to be globally neutral operation. And it's not entirely that. How do we get nominated nominated to be an ideal country for one thing? You gotta pay somebody off kind of kidding but not really Yes I met more in the positions not a member country but more than the positions that are blocked of the people who are partaking like this. I mean they opened the jobs from Sunday time. But you gotta you gotta be willing to work in Montreal. Actually one of the interesting things about working there. I don't think you need a work permit really technically A. You're not working in Montreal because you're working for the UN. When you go into the building? I did a tour with the guy who runs their social media. Got Because I was in town just over a year ago now now and I showed up his. Bring your passport and I did when I checked in. There's like a desk outside in the foyer in the lobby area building. There's little museum nearby that's pretty cool stuff of the history three of you know aviation whatever and then there's like a giant glass wall with a door and as you give the guy your passport outside he issues you a badge and then you go through that door and when you're inside that door you're you're technically an international land your no-man's-land your cousins have UN property. I'm I'm not sure how that works with residence permits but it's the work is done for the global agency not is a Canadian position. I wonder if I should visit loan in Montreal. It is actually pretty cool interesting. They had like giant meeting rooms with. Yeah the Super Sized Conference space with plush chairs. Everybody's names around the circle and things like that but they're really nice. Space and different countries have donated different things to due to the build out of the space so like Angus Morocco sent artisans over to do tiled wall in one of the rooms and a bunch of different countries donate a different airplanes like giant models to be displayed so the latest is actually Ukrainian donated a as an an one twenty four to twenty eight. I forget which recently on twitter company they showed it by ceremony. And what do they mean for our listeners. What does I kau actually do that? Big meeting rooms and they're really pretty for one. They kind of set helped set some of the regulation air carriers around the world breath like your there is what they call they call them annexes but basically every country. It's not all of them. That have agreed to all of it but you end members you basically agree to the mission statement our Constitution for lack of a better word. I'm sure there's a real word for it. I don't remember what it is. And then over time that can be adjusted and it's adjusted through the issuing of these annexes and so the at exit cover things like accident investigations. That became a big deal with the crash. Sure the missile Shooting down the planet Iran where. I think it's annex nine or thirteen one of them covers how the How different parties are supposed to participate in reacting so says that the country where the incident happened and runs the investigation but that the country manufacturer is supposed to be invited as is a representative of the country of the operator of the airplane and various other parties? So things like that They they and they do a lot of those things. One of the challenges is they are a UN organization and so things move very very slowly. They helped they helped define the CORSI scheme which is the carbon offsets for airplanes That was they meet. They have like one a conference. I think it's every year every other year ear They only governed there. It's thirty six member states that manage That represent the one hundred ninety three countries in the UN. They're only they're only it every third year. So it's a out of. There's some interesting stuff going on there. Catch some some airline The News I guess we call it or I mean it's not really news. I get people already knew this was happening. It's just it's happening faster than we originally thought. Latin is leaving a one world. May I and Royal Air MARACAS joining on April first. Yes was the roller Marach joining supposed to be he on the first of April or was it. People think it'd take longer I don't know I mean I don't know that. They necessarily ever announced a date prior to that so joke. Uh but the but the May I for Latin leaving is a bit surprising because it sooner than everyone thought it would take place yes it has been accelerated definitely. There's some people have seen complaining that they didn't get the full year notice which theoretically is the standard To be honest I haven't read the contract so I don't know. Obviously some people seem to think that a year is normal. I'm all for that sort of change. I'm not sure. Is it trying to southern leaving. Skyteam had full year either. So maybe not but I also I sympathize with people who had previously booked tickets analysis on. Nino aren't going to have their elite benefits or things have changed. They aren't earn points the way they thought they were at the same time. The number of passengers book tickets more than ninety days out is very very small. Aw I don't see a huge impact but I've been a question about what happens if the JV doesn't get approved with that with Delta than Latonya sitting out in the cold wondering Oughta go on. I don't think that's a risk really mean. Maybe maybe not I mean Morris Look what the problem is getting out of control right drastically. They're they're basically creating many monopolies in all these markets and. I think it's only a matter of time that someone figures this out and I think there's been a lot of people suggesting that that's a problem but I haven't seen any actually remained. The closest we came to being rejected was the Qantas American or not the close. It was actually rejected like what four years ago and then last year it was approved after united showed up with Zealand with a bunch of extra competition and people said okay. I got back more recently than that. The Gel Hawaiian had. Jd was rejected by which is ironic. 'cause that's a tiny one compared to something like this at a time. When American retreating from Latin America it actually causes more concern for JV to get approved because the amount of competition is gone down last year? It'll be interesting. I still I still expected. I know that Delta Digest get it's an ex to another two year extension on. It's like on a blanket codeshare with Mexico so the Delta generally speaking hasn't had any problems with its applications lately. I also just selling back at his annex. Thirteen covers aircraft accident investigations. Not In seven thirty seven news the wait sorry can we talk about the lines Iroquois Mark. Yeah Yeah Yeah Yeah Because of how close the timing is on the two members joining leaving thank one interesting. Quirk is that Royal Rock and Lo Tam did not bother negotiated bilateral. So there's no crossover between those two just for one month for the one month if you are a royal marach whatever elite and you show up to fly on the Tam. You don't get the bags. Benefits are allowed access or any of those other things because they're not necessarily good to know what the edge cases take. Yeah I don't know what the odds of someone being unrolling rock and Latin. I mean I guess the if the seven thirty seven news the spirit aerosystems which they make the the fuselages correct They've said they're only going to deliver two hundred sixteen fuselages in twenty twenty twenty for the Max so they'll start production or restart production and come up to two hundred sixteen total in. They don't expect to produce more than fifty two per month. The current rate was fifty two and then they dropped it to forty two. Right after the grounding Boeing did and spirit aerosystems was still producing for fifty two in putting ten aside every month as they did that for nine ten months. And there's like one hundred eleven thirty seven Maxi's largest sitting around and I saw the pictures but they were wrapped in orange. Plastic ended up like dogs. Get better headshot right so Some people thought Sushi Salmon Anyway So those are sitting around also but it's the way I read the announcement was and it's unclear having those are considered delivered or not bite right if those aren't considered if there's are considered deliver they still have to be physically delivered. If they're not consider delivered to Boeing contractually than those could count against the number. I think though that Boeing had originally said they were going to contractually take delivery of damage stored somewhere but either way that means that. In this calendar year Boeing expects to produce at most half the number are of seven thirty seven Maxon that the lines theoretically was supposed to produce this and of course you've got nine months of nine months of eighty percent production backlog to get through right. 'cause they were doing forty two hundred fifty two by so there are still plans to be delivered. But it's not like either Boeing or spirit aerosystems expecting to do new massive Number plays this year and that's challenging not just for those two companies but there's myriad other suppliers to get involved even get drawn into this mess. got a release today from a strong X.. which is one of the bigger supplier companies? You've probably never heard of and they make things a take the passenger service lights and emergency flashlights. And the strobe lights on the wings and things like root for different different things for different airplanes. But they've got some are close to a million dollars worth of hardware on each flight. If I remember correctly one hundred thousand. It's a big number I pulled up. You're talking but they have you know because they have no idea when the systems are gonNA come back online. Ninety five thousand five thousand dollars of hardware line fit on every line plus other things that the airlines majors so you know. They expected to sell say. Say Six hundred of those this year and instead they're gonNA sell two hundred in a four hundred hundred hundred thousand eight forty million dollars. Yeah so it's a lot of money that's being lost. You know I talked to another other vendors. Make somebody satellite radio hardware for are the INFLEC- Nativity stuff and buys the satellite Ronson. Their comment was yes we expected to deliver. Millar were shifting. Our business is this in accelerating the retrofit of other customers airplanes. So they're sort of still buying the same hardware nightmare us ninety percent the same kit. There's minor differences in in wanting included in a box. Took power is now dead but they are still maintaining and you know their suppliers are mostly still maintaining but for others. It's huge an it is. They're still no clear. Path forward for Boeing in. The Max is is that still kind of up in the air. What's going to happen? I think the path forward is belly makes it work that still hasn't been demonstrated as being possible or Now there's they did move. Interestingly they moved a handful of planes from Moses Lake Back to Renton I think recently which one could argue is a good sign but get every time boy everytime Boeing sort of opens their mouth and says we think we have a time line reminds the world that there is no time line. That's awkward but didn't the FAA recently come out and say that might fight sooner than they've been saying the FAA it did say something to that effect was instill hard to get to. I don't know I I understand why they're saying something. They're trying to keep the public informed and keep keep their investors informed so that the stock price maintains which is early has but it's pretty it's pretty questionable to keep saying you know. Just keep revising the timeline. Like that at at Boeing. Instead of saying we are continuing to work towards their safe. Return to the operation of this airplane Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah. Thank you for your patients like. It's just a shitty answer. No one wants to hear it but it's the answer that's not like offensive to reality but I mean you know they have a much bigger problem even WanNa get certified which is getting people on the planes. It's this kind of outage the more the longer these day. Out of the sky the more tarnish. That brand is mine. I generally tend to agree with the all. The passengers have proven for fifty cents savings. They'll do basically anything they want. And there's the part where the comment from The the CEO The new Guy Gallagher during his recent meeting during those quarterly earnings where he said quote. I'M NOT GONNA mark out of this so all the Max's will be going doing. Florida Routes Trans Man Trans of New York City. JFK A guy in San Francisco is a pretty competitive route. But WHO's thirty seven's on those at this point Alaska United. We'll be soon really. Oh Yeah but there's some fleet of lifelock seats but those are still a few years away. Aren't they sure they getting longer with each passing month service but it exactly on let's acceler will isn't that. Isn't that kind of like the outstanding question. All right Alaska's position where they have virgins old eighty twenty one orders and they have their Max orders in they could at this point switch switched out and make it all Airbus orders if they wanted to. Isn't that something that the other airlines have the option to do as well there are. I mean in theory three yes. There's you're GONNA run into challenges about delivery timing and slots like when can you actually get a new three. Twenty one years out are the. And to be fair. Boeing similar challenge depending on when they get back into service back into production back into deliveries. By the longer Boeing stays off line with the production. The more pressure on both sides. It's market this is not necessarily a great news for Airbus also raises questions on what the certification process is going to look like went out well while For you know the market in the Northwest Pacific Northwestern States there was a new airport paine field that opened up in. What was it a year ago now? and united announced they were GONNA fly to to paint field from San Francisco and Denver and recently yesterday announced they will be killing ruling that route off the San Francisco the San Francisco. They'll be leaving Denver the killing off same That's a strange turn of events. You you I mean if I gave up the newer saying you posted some route numbers like a traffic much loads were and it was not good right. Yeah it was very not a good. I'm out the first couple of months rather than like the thirties and forties retain. Then he got up to like seventy but the yields were still bad. And that's only got us through. I think doc July or August maybe and then I don't have the dot data doesn't exist yet. At least I have access to for more recent months so and as a percentage quote. Are you quoting yeah okay. Sorry percentages Not Total number passengers So yeah it's the route hasn't done well it's been delayed. Allot allot which San Francisco. It's been delayed more than the Alaska Airlines two dailies. They also go to San Francisco. So there's clearly some impact in terms of prioritization. Tation such with united and then it was. I don't know there's a lot of it was delayed more. I didn't see cancellation numbers at inject those but also People weren't paying as much before paying on average from what I can see twenty dollars less defy united than Alaska so Alaska ended up with two thirds of the market united about one third best. Let's see if you if there's only one operator or just fewer flights total than it probably would actually meet the demand for the market but Obviously neither airline necessarily wanted to give up up with SEATAC saturated. Why weren't they more successful? Most of Seattle doesn't live north of Seattle. But there will be well. I think I think for I think for the reality is Alaska has a foothold in Seattle. It's all point of sale based trek child situation. And so when you're selling tickets out of the Seattle market that's who knows about Everett people for the most part in San Francisco or somewhere connecting through San Francisco are going to say. Oh I want to fly ever want to fly to Seattle and actually I don't know if when you do a generic Seattle airport search if it shows up with both I if you Boston Austin Portsmouth shows up some time which is should take a lesson for Manchester Boston. North was actually. Yeah if you do Seattle. There is no all all Seattle all airports. There's There yeah it's interesting you don't you have to put in Everett and see the Alaska sells it as both Google. Flights doesn't it's like putting I put Boston and on Google flights There used to be all airports and he used to have the doesn't oh I know I Aw it did. When frontier operated Portsmith because frontier was in GTS platforms but elite has not so it changes the way those behave so in the nearby airports thing there are some options depending on the interface. But it's there's not great choices Napoleon field Boeing Paine field on Google play shows up just after Portland. So it's you know and the other thing is a lot of people. Don't know about Everett in the area If you're if you're not if you're not familiar with the geography of Seattle it is more convenient if you're going anywhere. North of say shoreline. Anything like that. So Ballard anything anything of North Seattle much closer but I don't think many people realize that when they're booking says no mass transit no mass and is fewer frequency. So there's good and bad. I mean it's a gorgeous I fill out on. The opening day is great but only twenty minutes capped at twenty four flights a day. Alaska owns nineteen of those slots. Right now united has the other five is giving three of them all so those go to nothing I've seen you wouldn't redwing be like practical to go to pain. Yeah that's me. There's a lot of stuff I mean. There's a lot of people in Redmond right so you'd think it'd be a little more successful but at that earlier point that those people probably fine Alaska or successful where those people going to Tokyo. Why why would they fly five? Paints San Francisco are paying La Tokyo instead of going SEATAC. Tokyo rent renovated pain. It's a pain in the attic. It's either one really. I remember from SEATAC. I went to Microsoft colleges out there decade ago. When you know traffic was much better? are not nearly as bad and it was still pain in the ASS. But I mean you know and it's been awesome into Seattle but I imagine Redman to pain is less stressful than Redmond to SEATAC slightly better Our of wanting to kill yourself. You're going thirty miles an hour than stopping for five minutes at a time. You basically get to go around Lake Washington instead of going going either the south side of it or over it into downtown so I guess that's okay is still not a close drive. I think I think it has a lot to do with people being if you're from northern and I think this is where it lasts marketed. Better if you're if you live northern Seattle and you need to travel to Others Alaska Destinations San Diego Portland San Francisco Phoenix etc.. It's a better alternative for your own windy if if he goes somewhere else. That's probably not is pain distance restricted. I don't think so I yes it's only seventy five flying but I don't don't remember that being a requirement took they do Chicago. I believe so because that would be something. We're not competing with Alaska right and it might be enough they show. Yeah uh no pain charter flight. There's a Seattle Detroit's I know but pain is. I mean I guess you just hop on Dream lifter that goes back and forth today a couple times a week to What else we got Airbus's speaking of Airlines James Airliners Airbus has hit a settlement in their bribery scandal An AirAsia was implicated in this. What's the full story herself? I didn't realize this was even going on It turns out that paying money to people as illegal to get them by your products and more awkward when their government officials but In the case of Ram the overall number right now is roughly four billion dollars would be is the penalty. Airbus is going to have to pay and they seem. I'm pretty happy with that number. Which is awesome considering that one of the numbers floated at one? Point was as much as two hundred billion dollars viability so for as much better than that while but it's still a huge stomachache and the Air Asia One specifically has to do with in the early twenty tens like around twenty twelve and thirteen. The airline was negotiating for one of his rounds of new airplanes and one hundred eighty eight three thirty Nieto's in three twenty Niaz. Yes I think is what impact is what the accusation suggests and right around the same time Airbus also paid fifty million dollars to sponsor the Formula One team Owned by Tony Fernandez. And His Co. is the chairman he's the CEO and the chairman. WHO's GonNa Boil Din Din didn't Meriden So yeah both of them went together on a Formula One team Airbus pumped fifty million dollars in sponsorship into it and then a year later area area should decided to buy those planes even if it wasn't really bribery and inappropriate. It sure looks like it. who gets us? Four billion dollars regular I count it's like the competition and the severe financial crimes office or something like that in the UK there's a US us part and the bulk of it is a France. I mean France. I must be Pune yourself in the foot given that Airbus. Oh important to the economy. Yeah but I think there's also the assumption is that still not gonNA break things. I mean Wa wait the the real estate part was just specific. Air Asia's that As they've been named in that Malaysian authorities are also investigating and pulling data from the UK. Folks The the two Gentlemen Fernandez Marron have stepped aside side. So Tony Fernandez is not running airasia right now for the first time since like two thousand something when it's a temporary reassignment bite. He is for two months. The two of them have stepped out of their roles although remain available unconcealed I'm for consultative resistance as deemed appropriate by others in the company. That's interesting situation. And that's four billion dollars a tonne. Yeah and not nearly as bad as screwing up the flight controls on airplane and having the grounded for a year but that's only a few hundred people along the way that's the other thing to consider is we know the area should folks. It has been suggested that other many other countries and airlines are also implicated in. So how much of that will trickle down as well remaining but it may be this. May this is likely likely to get bigger before it gets smaller. So I mean I mean could you could you. Could you argue. Or could you see Boeing arguing. Look we rush the development of the Max because because all these Airbus planes were being sold and we wanted to keep up and yet here we find out. Airbus wasn't playing fair and was essentially bribing people to buy their airplanes while we were trying to make an honest buck even though we did our own type of bribery and had the plan approved before it should have been approved and played inside baseball with the FAA and stuff like. Let's say it's Airbus's fault that they screwed up so badly. Yeah could you see them playing that that angle. It's it's possible but I can't imagine that would be a good angle to play. Yeah Yup Anyway. It'd be interesting to see which other carriers get implicated like domestically Delta American possibly frontier or indigo partners right because they are frontier who else their spirit and there are a number of others not spirit but uh but depending on how far back this goes so might be relevant to spirit. Yeah it was frontier Whiz Vida Airbus in something further south. They are the ones that there was Norwegian Argentina Butterfly Smart. But I mean if you look at the ones that have gone all Airbus. In the last few years I suspect those would be suspected. Ones interest. the a union. The canucks has reached a tentative agreement with one. Is that true. Yeah the in-principle they're still finalizing language debts And basically I mean the numbers I saw initially usually were massive it was To like by significant signing bonus Pretty big raises and other aspects along the way. They're still have it here. Yeah thirty thousand covers thirty thousand workers and the documents. It was a a four point. Two billion dollar contract covers mechanics services maintenance control maintenance training and MLS stores in. This will be you think this will cut into the work. Stoppage stuff that lewd out and downs that we've seen if nothing else. I hope it puts an end to the guy's going out of their way to actively sabotage. Airplanes Yeah Stars another only the one the yeah. I think this helps a lot on that front It's it's hard to tell sometimes like if that really is just a few people who are bitter are they gonNA necessarily be happy. Are they still bitter. And if they think they can keep getting away with it. Maybe it's just fun on you but yeah there's a lot of. There's a lot of money going into this one best. I can tell the unions very well on one interesting thing some data I saw the American shared internally maybe sort of fish That like that they are operational. Reliability in the second half of January has been spectacular And like the numbers. I'm seeing is that from January nineteenth twenty-ninth Only fifty cancellations on mainline primarily related eighteen weather and six thousand sixty one hundred flights on January twenty ninth across both mainline and regional with zero cancellations Sin Things get better. Yeah now obviously. The China cancellations are GonNa way on that although there's only six a day to for L. each way six day I guess Sexy each way. Yeah so like those are going to be some things but they seem to be. Maybe turning a corner operationally left to see if it's a Trinh's circuited something they can hold right. I mean Delta had bursts like this and then started smooth in the car and made it. I just a regular thing bite but it's also unclear if they're playing a delta delayed eighteen hours or not I can I can already hear phases response to fluke. The the only thing that has been unseasonably warm winter across the entire our system right so they had that going for them because the reality is new airline can have no delays January under normal circumstance cancels nor cancel. Excuse me for what it's worth. I had three American. Flights January operated sufficiently closed down. Didn't notice but I mean so. They're over one hurdle with mechanics but now the other unions are now wanting new agreements to and this is a horrible time to negotiate new agreements from an airlines perspective desserts peak. Yes right Probably not that far from an economic downturn most of these gains will probably get retreated anyways. I think we have one last plan story that I want talk about something else But the last story is the twenty variant. The Dash three hundred version is going to be. Heavier can have a heavier Max takeoff weight by about about two tons. It's one point eight Difference and then it's GONNA be able to fly with that weight difference. Four hundred fifty nautical miles further. The three hundred hundred is expected to. You're get so they're gonNA make the maximum takeoff weight of the Dash. One hundred larger as well. Is that what you're saying. Yes that's I mean. That's an interesting turn your now. What two hundred two thousand in two thousand? Five hundred nautical mile range. Is that ex lawyer that I was yes because there are three hundred series can do. They flew the three hundred series in a all business configuration from London City to JFK. On Trent you let's see here The three hundred to three hundred has its thirty. Five hundred nautical miles And then on the three hundred thirty eight hundred on two on one hundred maybe how long before Using these transplants. If you believe the David Neil Men's plan not very I'm fine to three big. I thought it was perfectly comfortable on Swiss. I wouldn't mind I mean. Come on medicine you got a flat beds in it and and and not all of the Trans Conrad's flatbeds interest rates are just go but you have a ton of market Seattle Portland Vancouver ask Blue Seattle incentive or transplant markets. Are they from. Oh Yeah I mean. They're the they're not. They're not good markets that I was actually talking with one employee the other day. And someone's like I don't ever get to fly Miffed empty even though it looks so awesome this southern California. The employee and I both looked at the person and said San Diego at the same time. 'cause they're based in Orange County and the fares out San Diego can be close to the economy fares if you book in advance and get some things writing because the economy is that of LAX. I mean I I wouldn't mind seeing the two twenty on on Mid Continent along mid con. It wouldn't be that bad you know we liked the he wants seventy five right. Beats the hell out of a CR. J Two two hundred I think the the seventy-fives for regional flights I mean I was doing Seattle Milwaukee on the seventy five that's almost pushing for hours. You're also glutton for punishment you gotta be you gotta be man and also. I guess I'm not allowed to talk based comfortable for. That's where we're drawing. I'm probably probably just fight a Chicago and drive from there. I did that a few times because united cancelled my connecting CR to flip the last the thing I want to talk about. It's something I sent you guys. It's this airworthiness directive for seven thirty seven And it's for the next Gen so that includes the six dash six hundred seven hundred hundred. Let's see eight hundred nine hundred nine hundred dollars. there's this ad this airworthiness directive came out December twenty seventh and they asked for comments by Eh next Monday of twenty. It basically says that a runway certain runways with a two hundred and fifty two hundred seventy degree true heading When it selected an instrument approach it blacks out all of the FOMC display units on the seven? Thirty seven. Look a pretty bad bug. Look you have to say I mean how. How is that not something that gets tested? You Not Chuck all I don't I don't know it doesn't say exactly exactly what's causing it. They they say there is some code that they found is the issue. Look at the list of airport. None of them or anything close to a major. What are the airports issue home? Barrow Barrow Alaska. which I think it's seven thirty seven cargo every now and then you get to seven thirty seven seven hundred with Israel Service for Alaska? Yeah yeah so like half is not notice has Alaska that every time they do they only land on the ninth not the twenty seven. I think it depends. Yeah it could also be particular to a level of code that they may have upgraded could be right they might not have been in a previous version than they update. Fomc let's see here the other one is there's a few others Sir Pine Buff Bluffs Wyoming. which doesn't actually have it's not A? It's not a not a K.. Designated airfield it's yeah like a And then there's Wayne County Ohio Chippewa County Michigan Cavern City New Mexico. La Nina Columbia and Cheddi Jagan in Georgetown. Guyana see what guy so relatively low frequency of usage but I would have thought the barrel would've triggered this so I I know that from Wyoming Georgetown in Ghana like eleven works at the airport. Yeah it's the it's the I mean. I would have thought that one would have done it unless they just approach from the south going north in west. Twenty seven to nine twenty seven. Should I land on that runway. Then seven thirty seven I think or does dealt apply some fifty down there or did maybe it was fifty seven when I think what throws people people off his right. This is true heading. This isn't the magnetic heading of not every runway twenty seven. Yeah it's like in Georgetown. It's one to four but the true heading of it is to seven right right so wait what I mean. Don't they just change the numbers after a while when things start to drift that much I don't I don't know I mean that could also be part of it. They're supposed to because they did at Orange County. Yeah they do. I mean they changed. They changed every down. Like you should make so it could be part of it I'm looking I'm going to try and pull up a barrel here in a second. Take a look at another A due east West runway definitely in It's it's the short runway. Is that you do east west London. Jonah probably part of why Yup and I I think that it's it. It probably doesn't come up because they approach coach from over the water at Barrow which would be facing east. I think that's the normal approach based on reading. So you know. Maybe maybe they had had a westerly approaching. It came up. I don't know but I know that reading it. There's been a few barrel was pointed out as being where this come up multiple. It does look like it's runway. twenty-nine not twenty four but twenty-nine arch twenty seven twenty nine in In Georgetown Twenty four and that is the one that is typically used. But that's not the east West runway. Okay Gotcha twenty nine and it's just the most I posted on twitter. I said this is the most random bug. Because it's you have to have it selected as the runway that arrive on as an instrument approach. EMC and you have to be on approach to that runway and then this happens outside the code recognized that you are in fact going where you said going on the downside of decide to should. It's when you do that so hopefully this gets fixed soon. Yeah Oh man. Dan Awesome anything else. Almost makes me feel better about how billing manuscript the maximum much but not really. Yeah unfortunately not oh man well guys I think that's a show To our listeners. You can find us on twitter at. That's lines more dots. molins Dot Com Lee comment. Tweet us from you did anything you'd Mike talk about. We love to do that next time. Happy travels take care.

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