Week 12 College Football Betting Tips & Picks with Host Adam Burke November 14, 2019
Old Ladies Kicking off the holidays in style with forty percent off everything. That's right everything on your list is on sale. Now get forty percent of every pair of jeans forty percent off all sweatshirts and all hoodies. Stephen Forty percents off all outerwear get forty percents off all the holiday gifts. They want a price. You want forty percent off everything. Old Navy and old navy dot com now Hurrying or miss out valid eleven fourteen to eleven nineteen excludes gift cards today only and today only deals gift to the week clearance register lane items zip stuff and jewelry so finish up this Thursday show on radio. I'll roll through a lot of the college football games that we didn't get to hear on our previous segments throughout the course of the week and again with college football and a little bit of an extended. NBA discussion with Brian Leonard. Wednesday's show a no show on Monday. Of course there are some games that we definitely definitely missed here over the course of the weeks roll through as many of those as I possibly can here to finish up this Thursday show Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech is a really interesting game on Saturday and again. Obviously these two teams aren't going to get a whole lot of run overall. Virginia Tech. You know early on in the season. They didn't and look very good. They didn't look very good at all now. All of the sudden Virginia Tech is innate. Really interesting position because because they play Georgia tech this week then they play pit and then they play. Virginia Virginia Plays Liberty Deep and then Virginia Tech. If Virginia Tech Wins Out they will win the ACC coastal which is absolutely crazy to think about giving that early early on the season. They lost to Boston College Week. One struggle with Old Dominion Struggle with Furman got rolled by Duke at that point. I threw them away. I dismiss that team. We even talked on this show about Justin Flint and his job. Security there in Blacksburg now Virginia Tech back in a position to do some really special things here within the conference which is absolutely crazy. crazier still there are only five and a half point road favorite this week against Georgia Tech and Georgia tech has been a plucky underdog. They've been a very competitive team in a lot of their underdog situations nations most of them much bigger than this. They've covered and even won outright on games as a double digit three score type of underdog. They're not in that role here this week. But but man. Is this an interesting Virginia Tech four and a half point favorite on the road taking on Georgia Tech. My number in this game is right on and five and a half so at least I've got these teams powerade accurately because again Georgia tech has been so good in that really big dog role and I had to make a lot of adjustments with Virginia Tech. So I'm happy to see my number right here on the market number at five and a half but a lot of people are going to say that it probably looks like public. Abbott percentages show overwhelming support for Virginia. Tech here in this game and the line hasn't moved so the books are still waiting to see if they get some the measure of sharp action on Georgia Tech Side. If they go to six maybe they think it's going to happen. Maybe they feel like they don't need to go to six as of yet fascinating sitting game to watch on Saturday get sometimes these games really intriguing. Line moves can be throwaway types of games or even the games without any sort of wine move can be throw away away games because they're overshadowed by different matchups in the market but this is very much one have on your radar. We're Virginia Tech playing really well the only loss in that span at Notre Dame game. They very well could have one. And they're only laying five and a half against Georgia tech team. That has two wins on the season. One in conference play a win over Miami. I believe that was an overtime interesting to say. The least here did not see this line move despite the public support for the hokies again. Either implies that we've got some detect shirt money out there or that. There's the worry that it will come in and hasn't come in yet so it's definitely game to watch. Is there in that three thirty on Saturday to lane and temple. We have seen lied movement on this one to lane up from three and a half to six market wide out there. I only have this one one and a half so I've got a big overlay here but this late in the season when you've got a lot of data points about these teams like we do with too late and temple and you've got a line that opened two points higher than your number and then moved two and a half points in the other direction. Odds are you're missing something. The market has been very hi unto lane here really over the course of the season too late as a team that has exceeded expectations from an ATS standpoint. Even though they are just six and three and three and two in conference offers play the market does like to lane and maybe this has to do with Tulsa and the wind that they had last week knocking off central Florida people looking at that Tulsa game and saying thing. Well they're actually pretty good. Maybe we give to pass for that one only winning that game by twelve in a game that really was pretty close throughout. I mean it was a twenty four to sixteen game at halftime halftime. The yardage totals weren't that far off what to latest buzney sharp over the course of the season here and I mentioned in that previous same with Brad that typically when I get a sharp side I ended up overcompensating for like a Louisville. I haven't done that with two lane here. Maybe I should. Maybe I do need to make some Tulane. Adjustments adjustments here for their remaining games may need to drop temple down as well so even though I've got a four and a half point overlay here with some of the key numbers of th- reinforced reinforced. And play still not taking temple because again if at this point in the year. It's not an injury related situation. A line moves against you that much. Something is wrong with your number and it's important to recognize that it's important to realize that it's a realization that I've come to here in this game so even though I've got a Paul Ratings overlay I have no interest in temple. We'll see how that game winds up playing. It'd be temple does play well in that one. But also I don't love Rod Carey and Rod Carey deeper in the year here in his first year at Temple. This not a team. I'm really looking back. So no thoughts for me on that game except to again mentioned that Yup if something moves against you this late in the year when it already opened off of your number probably a good time to readjust reevaluate the number that you've got on that game staying in the AFC. Cincinnati and South Florida. Three Twenty seven three twenty eight Cincinnati up from thirteen to fourteen here taking on a South Florida team that I I really haven't had much of an opinion of for most of the season here and yet my light on this game just eleven and a half so get another line moving slightly against me but I can't can't take USF here and Against Cincinnati one of those teams that the market has been on. It's been interesting with Cincinnati here because they've had several situations later in the season where the totals on their games have come down. But they're big. Favourite role has gone up so it does seem like the sharp up crowd the crowd wherever you want to call them here likes this Cincinnati defense quite a bit. This is one of those scenarios where the total has come down from fifty to forty six and a half and the side is gone up albeit only to fourteen from the opener of thirteen. So this is one of those similar spot so soon with Cincinnati a lot here in the second half of the year. I have no reason to believe that the market is wrong in this game the under- makes sense. Cincinnati makes sense. USF Chiefs Defense is okay. US offense is awful. So I would not go against bipolar reading here with the eleven and a half number. Cincinnati probably the side. I'd but fourteen tough to sit. There's a whole lot of value in that line. Syracuse Duke. Three twenty nine three thirty Duke Eight ten and a half point favorite here in this game my line eleven right there in line with the market. But if I had to do anything with this game I lay the number with. Do Duke has underachieved this. This season Harris played very well at the outset. He has regressed yes not taking good care of the football. He has not progressed as thrower. which is something we're used to seeing from? I'm David cut cliff types of quarterbacks. Running game hasn't been great for Duke. That's certainly hurt than the kind of one dimensional is themselves on offense. I'm just making up words here. Just three point eight yards per carry but in this particular spot here against the Syracuse team. That is very very bad against the Syracuse team. It's probably not going to go to a bowl game with Road Games at Duke at Louisville Against Wake Forest. They fired defensive coordinator. Brian Ward a guy who's been with Dino Babar's four for a little while this is chance for Duke to let out some frustration against somebody. I think they were a misleading cover against Georgia tech winning by eighteen hundred win for two. You should covered the number. Weren't able to do so although if you've got eighteen and a half hundred attack. They did actually cover that one. The following week Lost Virginia heartbreaking breaking loss to North Carolina. Maybe some carry over there in that game against Notre Dame. I think to get right. Spot for Duke. Duke wants to go to a bowl game. They've got a win and two of their last three games to do it. Here I don't think Syracuse is that mobilized for that offensive line is beyond awful. I think Duke is the only way you look connect game. I think this is a chance for do possibly let out some frustration so again out of power ratings played for me lines only eleven but to with what they've gone through here so far this season I think it is an opportunity for them to kind of right to ship a little bit Ohio State and rutgers I I don't know what you can say about this game. Ohio state eight fifty two and a half point favorite. There is a fifty three and a half out there as well against rutgers total of sixty one and a half. The money's been on the over here in this one so obviously the expectation that rutgers not going to provide any resistance defensively and Ohio. State's it's going to go very young in the second half and their reserve defense last week in the game against Maryland did have some issues. I mean they gave up some yards. They had some undisciplined penalties. They gave some points there in that second. Half maybe the expectation that happens again here this week Ohio state could hang one hundred if they want to hear. I don't I don't think they do. But what's what's been interesting here. The lead up to this game. This week is that. There's been a lot of talk about Chris chugging off the backup quarterback trek for Ohio state. How he's fitting into the system how he likes the system? How Ohio state getting increasingly more confident in their backup quarterback situation in the event that if something happens to justin fields now maybe they're just blowing smoke but maybe there's some legitimacy to this year too? So maybe Ohio state just keeps going with chugging chugging on your demilio McCall found the end zone last week master teague has been great as we know the over. Probably make some sense here in this game I. I'm not laying fifty a two and a half of the Buckeyes. My Line is I believe fifty one here for this game. I'm not laying the big number. I think it's kind of borderline crazy to do that but I didn't think the overdose make some sense here because you've got an Ohio state. Second team offense has been very good and the second team defense. That is maybe a little bit. Undisciplined is is maybe a little bit unpolished. I got a chance for some points in this game to state rutgers and also too I mean whilst Hong seventy-three Avenue Three last week on Maryland they could very well go over this total themselves in this game this week Troy Texas state in three forty five. Three forty six is kind of interesting to me here troy. They've been up and down this. You wondered how things would be first year without Neil Brown. They've had some good performances. They've had some bad performances. Last week was a good performance. Forty-nine twenty-eight over Georgia southern come from behind come from losing the two games previously Georgia state and Coastal Coastal Carolina coastal going to getting it late in that game so choi very well could have beaten coastal on the road bb. Get right game there for them in that game against Georgia southern Texas State Look Texas. Finish sharp team. I think people want Texas state to be good. They've got an exciting coaching staff. There which Jake spavinaw and Bob. They've got some offensive players. That aren't bad. Recruiting was a little bit better here. This previous cycle and they've been a team that's been one twenty nine or one thirty and everybody's power ratings over the last several years people want them to be good. Do get the win last week but elite elite fourth quarter field goal where they were trailing a pretty bad south Alabama now South Alabama has a knack for hanging around in these games where they are the inferior your team. They tend to cover a lot of lower scoring types of games. For whatever reason. They're they're kind of tough defensively bend but don't break a whole lot so maybe it. It shouldn't be a surprise that they hung in there with Texas state but again this week. Texas state taking money down from eight and a half to seven lie. Lied on this game is five so I agree with the line. Move however again. I think that it's one of those things where maybe I over adjusted Texas state because the market was was trying so hard to like them and again I mean early on. In the year they played Wyoming Tough Wyoming winds up being a very good team this year. The beat Georgia state. which is one of the crazier results of the season here? So far I just don't see it for Texas state I just. I don't see the reason to love this team and maybe troy did find something. You'll Billingsley with a good game on the ground barker throws for three bills in three scores. Maybe Troy Kinda found something last week with a first your head coach Lindsey. I would have to go against my power rating here. I'm not going to do it but if I had to do anything for a spread pool or something like that. I think troy now that they're down to seven would be the side in this one I again. There's just so much hopefulness about Texas state that hasn't come to fruition here so far that I I just don't see a reason to believe in it this week. Even though my line does suggest maybe Texas state had a little bit of value at eight and a half at seven and a half getting maybe I over adjusted because of the sharp steam coming in on the Bob cats game three forty nine three four fifty here. UCLA UTAH UTAH. Twenty one point favorite in this one and we've seen this theme a lot here. Total comes down. Utah grows as a favorite total down from fifty four to fifty two here. Utah has done no wrong. I mentioned in this last week. That Utah has done no wrong since that game that they lost against USC and that was a coin. Flip type of game to since then they beat Washington shutout Oh cal dominated Arizona state dominated Oregon State dominated Washington state. They beat up on teams. They've gotten into that bully. Roll off a bye hi here taking on at Ucla team that had garnered a little bit of sharp interest. But now again you see Utah money coming in and this line could swing on game day we could sit back down in the twenty range but it's very tough to Fade Utah Right now my number eighteen and a half so not a whole lot of powering value one way or another but Utah has again. I don't know wrong. There's no reason at this point in time to step in front of that. Utah train and to do so with chip killing UCLA. I think is a tall ask as well so Utah a little bit here but again laying a big number total of fifty four always scary to look first at the points in those games. We don't see a the reason to take the points. It's pretty tough to take the favorite in that scenario Wyoming and Utah State game three fifty three fifty four here. I've got this one lined Utah state minus four and a half lines. Come down from six to five and a half or five moving in the direction of my number credit bull. Might it just be a magic man. It's not sexy football. It's not fun to watch. It's a smashmouth throwback type of style. But Damn if it doesn't work for the Wyoming Cowboys Lose Sean Chambers. You think okay. They lose their second leading rusher. They're going to have to change things that have to do some things differently and they are right. Dare in that game with Boise State last week and there was a lot of support for Boise state. That wind got very high in that game. At Boise state has to go to overtime. When twenty two seventeen now I will acknowledge this is not a great spot for Wyoming coming off putting so much into that Boise state game coming up just short now? They don't have a chance in the mountain West Mountain Division. But how can you doubt Craig Bohl. And what he's done with this cowboys his program. It is interesting to see you stay. Open this big of a favorite given that. There's been a strong anticoagulant sentiment here this season because they're just not at the same time of day. Were last year walk off. Field goal for them last week against Fresno state tough spot for them to. I don't know if they're ready for this type type of game I don't know Jordan. Love can have success against this Wyoming Defense and we know Utah State struggles to run the football. So it's Wyoming for me here it it would have to be at the five and a half number get pretty close to my numbers but it would. It would just have to be Wyoming if that's the kind of way that you're looking in that Game Georgia state and Appalachian State Appalachian State coming off. The win against south. Carolina wasn't particularly impressed with either team in that that game. It's always impressive to see what happens here with Appalachian State coming off of these games against power five competition but this is this is a difficult one. Because you've got Georgia state going into this one without Dan Ellington out with a knee injury. This line adjusted about a point and a half two points here on. It was known that was going to be out before the market open but but he talked about guys in their value to the line. Dan Ellington has been so incredible at Georgia state. Here so far this season I guess adjustment. Looks like Appalachian State laying a big number laying almost three scores in this one. My Line in this game was seven. So maybe the adjustment has been factored into the equation for Ellington. Being out about a ten point adjustment it would appear that makes sense. That's so I guess I'll take back what I said. They're my policies for Not Looking at this one in the proper context does seem like everyone knew that Ellington was going to be out so is it just makes accents and it's a shame that Ellington for this game because it had been very intriguing otherwise but again at probably about a ten point adjustment for Ellington here in the market. That's probably accurate We'll see if Ellington is able to go next week if he's not obviously a ten point adjustment coming from me on Georgia state in my politics came three sixty one three sixty easy to USC cal this line up from five and a half to six and a half or so here my line in this Game Cal plus four. I've been much higher in the market on cal. Then a lot of people here cal much lower last week at Washington state didn't play it because I thought what do I have wrong here. Of course I had nothing wrong because they wound up really blowing out Washington state there in that game. I'm wondering about USC. I'm wondering about this. trojans program and what what their current mindset is because they had Arizona state last week without Gene Daniels it could have been a runaway train and it was early on and then and they let Asu back into the game gave up. Almost three hundred yards through the air to the backup quarterback. Yellen Joey Ella. Where is this point meantime eligible? Now they've got the battle in a couple of weeks time here gets UCLA where they are Klay. Hilton's not going to be around. They know Graham heralds. Probably we're not going to be retained depending on who the new head coaches what is. US's mindset right now cal terrible offensively as we know. Very very good defensively Sibley can they hang around in this game candidate cover those. NFL caliber wide receiver for USC. That's the question here. Do I take cal here after missing sitting out on them last week. If it gets to seven I'm going to at six and a half. I'm not sure yet begins to seven. I'll take a piece of CAL here against USC in that PAC twelve after dark league game coming up on Saturday night South Carolina Texas Texas eleven point favorite here. I'm very worried about South Carolina. Going forward they are not making a ballgame they would have to beat am and beat Clemson. I don't think happens. They've had a lot of injuries here. Throughout the year Brian Edwards is way less than one hundred percent. We saw that in the final drive against Appalachian State last week and Ryan who Linski. He's made some throws he's missed a Lotta throws to. He's had a lot of freshmen moments here. So far this season sixty point four percent ratio. Eleven to four touchdown interception ratio but teams have dropped picks. He's thrown some very dangerous. Football's here we've seen some good. We've seen some bad. What happens against Texas am what I like here in this game under South Carolina's offense is just? They're not explosive. They've had a couple of big plays here and there but who Linski is inconsistency has been a big problem. Shy Smith has has been hurt Ryan Edwards has been hurt South Carolina runs the football would feast out there when he's not. They really struggle to run the ball. I got some problems here against Texas the defense on the other hand. I don't love Texas offense eater I South Carolina Defense is pretty decent. You've got an an MTM. That is very hit or miss on the offensive side to me. I think this profiles as a lower scoring game. I don't think we see a lot of explosive player. I under fifty one in south South Carolina and Texas A. and M. Game. TCU in Texas Tech. Game I originally wanted to talk about with Brad but in the interest of talking about some other games I left that one off the board. TCU A three-point report favorite here total on this game of fifty six and a half. I've been way too low on. TCU just about all season long. I've finally got it to a place where I've caught up with the market. Texas opened a one point favorite now. TCU At three point favorite TCU minus two in this one. So I'm finally more in line with where where the market is so. I'm happy with that. This is stay away game for me early kickoff in Lubbock bad spot for TCU. There were some concerns about Max Dougan and his health going going into that game against Baylor he gets through it soldiers on. But you've got your jet Duffy and Ellen Bowman both healthy now for Texas Tech. You could have a timeshare quarterback those it was always worry me game. I'm staying far far away from but at least I'm finally live with the market a little bit on that one. How about Florida and Missouri Game? We didn't get to with Brad. Four to six and a half point favorite total on this game with Kelly Bryant back in the fold from Missouri is fifty and a half so it went up to fifty one an from forty eight and a half came back down now a little bit interesting game. Missouri has been very underwhelming very disappointing here on the season in Florida. I've been high on at times I've been low on at times. My Line here is six and a half some right in line with the market with Kelly Bryant back for this one. I don't know what to think about Florida offenses. Dan mullins a very good play caller. I they have some weapons kyle. TRASK has looked good at times. But they're not the type of team. I want to try and get margin with even though they did it last week. Against Vanderbilt. Missouri is a much better team from Missouri. Here this is kind of back's against the wall type of game because they have under exceeded expectations. And they going to get to a bowl game. They should Ford at home. Tennessee at home on the road at Arkansas on a short week the only need one more win to get there. But they've dropped three straight to Vanderbilt Kentucky and Georgia. They've scored twenty one points in the process. This is a game game where they have to circle the wagons and I think I think if they can like Missouri plus the six and a half the under in this game as well I Missouri is a better team. The people realize now because they've had these three straight losing efforts. There's probably some value on the Tigers. At this point. In time there was no value coming into the season a lot of people were to Ohio. Missouri I kinda tried to stay below that fray a little bit kind of lay low look to fade Missouri early on. They played very well the middle portion of the year here. They've come back to where I sort of thought they would be. I think now maybe a bipolar on the Tigers in a low scoring game getting the six and a half so I do like Missouri. A little bit here in this weekend's action we talk about Lsu and Ole miss here to finish up the show. This is such a fascinating spot. Lsu Suv course off that huge win against Alabama. The quant crowd loves them. There's no reason not to love him with that offense but this is a bad spot against Ole miss your in a lot oughta different ways. They're laying twenty one and a half lineup from twenty and a half. I don't like old miss. I'm not a huge fan of miss. My Line in this game is twenty-five live but can you really lay a huge number with Lsu here when Ole miss by and large has played pretty well this season overall. They played close against Auburn. At least as far as the final score would indicate the yardage was much more misleading than that Texas an end they were close to that Game Missouri. They hung around that one. They beat vanderbilt like they should had over. Four hundred yards against Alabama. Ole Miss hasn't been bad Kounellis Baum out. Yeah they very much. This could be a game for Joel Borough to go. Pat Is numbers on the other hand. You're number one of the College Football Playoff rakings now. You beat Alabama for the first time in a while. You'd beat Auburn the week before two weeks before that you got your win over Florida. Is this a spot where Lsu Lsu is completely focused. I don't know I will find out a lot about your on here. We found out a lot about doors are already in Marquee Games and how good he's done to knows house. I would find out a lot about Ed on here in terms of avoiding a flat spot for his team because this is very much one. I don't know if I play it. Maybe at twenty one and a half. It's worth a look going against my power ratings here began. I just don't see how Lsu fully mobilized to go out there and bought this team after. There's such an emotional win last week. And now you're back on the road in Oxford top spot for Lsu here to say the least so twenty one and a Jeff. I may take a piece of Ole Miss. It would be a smaller plate for me what I may end up taking a piece here of the rebels old Navy's kicking off the holidays in style with forty percent off everything that's right. Everything on your list is on sale. Now get forty percents off every pair of jeans forty percents off. All sweatshirts all hoodies Stephen. Forty percent off all outerwear get forty forty percent off all the holiday gifts they want at a price. You want forty percent off everything at old navy and old Navy Dot Com. Now Hurry in or miss out. Valid eleven fourteen to eleven nineteen eighteen excludes gift cards today only and today only deals gift to the week clearance register lane items zips APP stuff and jewelry old Navy's kicking off the holidays in style with forty percent off everything that's right everything on your list is on sale. Now get forty percents off every pair of jeans forty percents off. All sweatshirts all hoodies Stephen. Forty percent off all outerwear get get forty percent off all the holiday gifts they want at a price you want forty percent off everything it old navy and old Navy Dot Com. Now Hurry in or miss out. Valid eleven fourteen to eleven nineteen excludes gift cards today only and today only deals gift to the week. Clearance Register lane items zips APP stop and jewelry.