Trump, Biden and Coronavirus in 2020
From younger finance this election. I'm Rick Newman and I'm Alexis Christopher's welcome everyone to the election onyx. Podcast we hear Yahoo. Finance are all broadcasting from our respect an impact on the twenty twenty election. We're not talking much about the election. It seems like Joe Biden the presumptive Democratic nominee has into hiding. But we want to talk about how this virus could impact president. Trump's chances of being reelected I guess the latest wreck is that trump is saying we could reopen the economy in less than a month. He's looking at Easter now. Just first off. What are your thoughts? Well my read on what's going to president. Trump's mind is He recognizes that. You just don't win. Reelection has an incumbent president If there is a recession on your watch especially if it comes late in your watch a leading into when voters go to the polls now obviously many other things are going on here. I don't think the any voters actually blame president trump or would blame him for the fact that the corona virus exists or that arrived here in the United States. I mean that would happened under any president but there are some major questions about trump's handling it and about the federal government's response to the virus in the in the effect it's now having on the basically the entire US economy so Just to frame this conversation. Let's I I just want to look up some so. I'm looking into my Webcam here and my computer's over here so I'm GonNa look over to this study. That Larry Sabato the political scientists at the University of Virginia put up on his political side which is called sabotage crystal ball. Anybody can look this up this analysis by Alan Abramowitz a political scientist so Alan Abramowitz has done some good analysis on a president's reelection odds given two things his approved his or her approval rating. But it's always been his so approval rating and change in GDP in the second quarter of the election year. So just to give you a sense of where this seems to sit for. President trump right now prison. Trump's approval rating is about a minus ten. That's what it has been for most of his presidency And we are now hearing projections that GDP growth could hit negative three four or five percent on a year over year basis in the second quarter. So if if if we were have negative. Gdp growth of three percent so negative negative three three percents trump would only get one hundred eighty four electoral votes if GDP falls to minus four percent year over year that trump's electoral vote total would follow one sixty four and if it's minus five percent in GDP trump one hundred and forty four electoral votes. Takes Two hundred seventy two seven zero electoral votes to win? So if trump wins between a one hundred and forty four hundred eighty four electoral votes. That is lacking. That's a wipeout. That's not even a close election. So that's how. The Corona virus is affecting trump's reelection odds at least on paper now. There are some people who think well maybe the country will rally behind President Trump And sort of view him. The way you might view a word time president You know when the nation would get a tax such as George W Bush after the nine eleven terrorist attacks we had Anthony Scaramucci to former trump advisor on our air. Recently on Yahoo. Finance saying trump could win SCARAMUCCI has been one of these sort of Guys backdrop and then completely flipped said He's teased terrible. I he's GonNa get creamed in November but now with these development SCARAMUCCI is saying. Oh maybe he could win. A we have no idea whether voters will rally behind trump as if he's a wartime president. I do know that as of now which is about ten days after this whole thing really started to get bad. There's basically been no change in trump's approval rating. I expect that to change one way or the other because I mean this is just such a profound event. Maybe people just don't know what to make of it but I think it's more polls change. That will change trump so trump knows. He's gotTa get something going here He's got to get the economy started again. He's got to do something about the millions of jobs. We'RE GONNA lose. Obviously he pays a lot of close attention to the stock market. Which I know you've been talking about every day breathlessly Alexis so that is trump problem and it's a big one now. I want to get back to his approval. Rating you said. It's at minus ten percent net net approval rating. So when you when you say the portion who approve minus the portion who disapproved so his Let's say his net approval. I think last time I looked at five. Thirty eight was around forty. Four percent net approval in maybe a disapproval was fifty two percent. I mean so. That's eight percent of his net approval. Then would be negative eight. So He's in that range he's been in that range of around negative eight negative ten. I mean he has had a negative approval rating his whole Presidency what about this this concept of president trump as a wartime president? I believe he said it himself. During one of the numerous press conferences. He's been having with the media. He likened the virus to a war and he was saying that he was a wartime president. what could he be doing rick that he's not doing with the executive power he has to try and fight this enemy. I think there's one huge thing It is a go as big and aggressively as you can to ramp up testing in. The United States has lagged on this from the beginning. So we all know. Trump was very dismissive of this buyer. He said all these things that are going to come back to haunt him in the fall general election. He said it will disappear of the virus. He said we haven't under control. We have it contained. He said all things like that and all of that is turned out to be completely untrue but I think worse than that. We're now getting some understanding of why it took so long to get tests out there so we could figure out what was going on so There've been good investigative reports by the Associated Press. Reuters has done something. There's another piece in the New Yorker what took so long and they were just stumbling in bundling all along the way so the CDC had problems. There were mistakes in the test kits. They doubt they had redo some of those original tasks at the same time there was no Impetus from the White House. Nobody from the White House really banging on heads in this should have been happening in January saying. Hey we need to get on this this this could be this is this is sort of a five alarm fire. We need to be throwing everything out is because look what's happening in China. Now trump is has set things like nobody could have known what would happen. That is not true And the record clearly shows there. Were there were a public health experts publishing op eds in all the leading newspapers. Saying this is a bigger problem than anybody is acknowledging right now. Here are the things we need to do. Ron Clain who was the Bulla are under president? Obama publish something like that in the Washington Post in in the middle of January saying. We're not doing nearly enough and now president trump is saying well I No one knew that it was going to be like. That's not true so in a sense. It's if he wants to go with that. Wartime president analogy will the wartime President Levies. Guard DOWN IN ALLOWED AN ATTACK. Take place or did not. Respond is aggressively to attack as he should have so to go back to your original question. The thing we must be doing now is testing as many people as possible I mean the ideal outcome here would be to have enough test for multiple tests of the entire. Us population Yes a one billion tests in the idea is if you can test everybody then you can then you can figure out. These people are fine. They had the test. They're fine so they're free to move around now. We know who can who can go around or go back to work go shopping or do whatever and we also know that these other people here are not okay by the way Medical experts are saying that the actual infection rate is probably ten times higher than reported infection rates. So we've got tons of people in the country who are infected and don't know and they're walker walking around and Infecting other people the infection rate for corona virus is much higher than it than it is for the flu and the virus itself is considerably more dangerous than the flu. So that's why we're having these exit I will get this right. I guess I WANNA say existential. But what I what I mean to say is exponential revenues exponential increases in numbers. Here in New York and other places. And that's going to be showing up more and more places so I'm I'm honestly matic right now. Part of the issue is if you're not showing symptoms you could be out and about and still spreading it now. The president would say once the economy to get back up and running by Easter time. But that doesn't mean that state by state. Those governors are going to do that if they're seeing what's happening on the ground within their own state with their own healthcare workers on the front line realizing that their hospitals are already Max damage. We keep hearing here in New York State Governor. Cuomo talking about and I actually have a sister who's an emergency room nurse and she's telling me her hospital is just so thin they have hospital beds up and down the hallways or for people who were ill she saying. They don't have the masks and other equipment. They need to do their work and she's afraid to go into work. I mean if those are the conditions and I'm hoping they're not three four weeks out regardless of what president trump says these governors are not going to get back to business as usual right. Well Governor Cuomo here in New York is actually saying it's GonNa get considerably worse here in New York so he if assuming we considered do the things we're doing now we're going to see the peak of this In thirty or forty five days that's my understanding and Look that that would come after. What president trump is now saying? Let's get started reopening things around Easter. Which is April twelve? You know president cannot order local economies to reopen that is up to a mayors and governors. And you know people who don't have this in their community yet. Do I can understand why they don't appreciate the scale of the problem but Any mayor I think it's if you're if the people who run your healthcare system are telling you They are about to get swamped with more sick people they can treat and some of those are going to be fatal cases and they are going to be having to let patients die that they might otherwise be able to save if they had the capacity. I don't think any governor faced with that with that choice and knowing that he or she would have to explain the consequences when they happened. Would say I don't care. Let's just leave all the businesses open. I'm not GonNa shut down bars and restaurants. Barber SHOPS NAIL SALONS. Were just going to tolerate this public health emergency. I mean so for president trump. He's going to reopen businesses. He's I mean if he actually does you know he probably will not actually do that. I get he. He feels like he wants to do that. But I don't see how we he can because I just don't can't imagine any governor or mayor doing that in posing that kind of a burden on the local healthcare system and I guess one last thing I'll say on this lexuses I I've been hearing so as I've been writing about this. I have been hearing from people who live in flyover country And I say that that's a term of to me. I'm from Pittsburgh which is fly over country. I grew up there and I still family there. They kind of consider this a an urban or coastal thing in that maybe you know it's like a Sodom and Gomorrah phenomenon and it's never gonna come to them You know it is going to hit rural communities. Only epidemiologists are saying in the problem. Either be more acute there because a lot of rural communities have very limited hospital access. Some of them don't have any intensive care. Units and governor Cuomo. Here New York did say recently. He said what we've got going on in here. This is coming to your community. Wherever you live in America look at us as the example of. What's about to happen to you so for everybody who thinks that we in the media are exaggerating overstating this. I regret to inform them. I think they will soon understand why this is so serious. I think that's an excellent point in a couple of people that I know. They were not attacking when they said this but they did say look. I know you're in the media and I think the media's just blowing this up And you know we would like nothing more than to be able to report better news about this. But I'd like to think we are conduits of of a number of facts for people and we hope that people listen to what we're telling them because the only way to get a handle on this is indeed of each and every one of US practices social distancing. Just because what's scary about this is we just don't know who has the virus who doesn't again coming back to that as dramatic we go. I just want to remind people that's why it is so important to get testing massive massive testing capacity if we ever have to Overdo it on some just overdo it there. Is You know you have to think about the private sector? So we have a lot of companies now are trying to ramp up production not just of test of ventilators and masks and other things personal the personal protective equipment. The health care workers need. But you know they They're even now. I think rightfully reluctant to start mass producing stuff that is going to be needed. They don't know how they know how long it's going to be needed. So it had some in some parts of the supply chain here. They could be. They could start mass producing stuff and end up stuck with a lot of stuff that they're just gonNa take a loss on. So that is where the government needs to step in. That is actually the job of government which is to to help. Companies bear the risk or to take some of that risk off the company's when it's in the public interest in the not in it's a national priority and trump has not done this yet. I mean he has talked about activating this DP a defense up Productive Act. But he's not really used it to do much of anything so far and I. I just think he's way behind on this and we don't WanNa over politicized this but this is going to become a just a huge political issue in the fall and voters gonNA decide trump faced a crisis. Did you handle it? Well or did. He fail an governors albeit. A lot of them are democratic governors. But still like the Connecticut Governor Lamont telling trump. I think you should just shut down the whole country for a little while so we can wrap our heads around this and that of course. Cuomo here in New York. Are The governor here. Asking trump to go ahead and invoke those powers and to put American companies at work to produce the products that we so desperately need I wanted to talk about Biden Joe by. I mean what happens if this went into hiding. I mean we know at least as of the recording. This podcast Bernie. Sanders has not yet dropped out of the race. You know what's the latest there? Joe Biden is still alive and well as far as we know he has started making some TV appearances via. I saw one thing he did on. Tv they said it was via satellite. But I to me. It looked like it was just via a Webcam. Like I'm talking to right now. Joe Biden so clearly they're not doing any campaign events and had we had normal voting I think you're getting to the point. That Bernie Sanders would probably be gone sooner if we had actual voting going on still a lot of those states have postponed their elections so that in a wedding. That's a reprint Roberta standards. He's he's way behind. He's going to lose. Barring something unforeseen but now there's there are no additional votes for a while so he's going to stay in and he and Biden have both been sort of having their say about this. I don't think the media's paying a lot of attention and I think that's appropriate What JOE BY JOE? Biden's not president so there will come a time when you know he can up Present an alternative vision for what you know. What he thinks needs to be done But you know. It's this delicate on problem. So Joe Biden has been taking some shots at president trump when he when he talks about this is outlined east. He has a plan he does have a grown of Irish response plan again. He's not the president and he's not in any position to enact that plan. So what's the point But you know there is there is a you know this politics. And it's not GonNa it's not gonNA become genteel just because of this virus so Binds been a by the time I think we will certainly be hearing a lot from him. in this regard once she is the actual nominee assuming he is and this. I'm sure there's going to be an ugly battle come. The fall would hope that by the time. The general election really heats up in September and October of Later this year one would hope that we have made some progress on this and so that Biden is not really going after a sitting president. He's having to make life in decision life and death decisions every day but that it could be in that position and frankly I will say if this crisis is still that bad by By September and October I. I think trump is toast. Oh for sure for sure ornament and that leads me to my next question is their time. So all of this is so time-sensitive right right but is there time for trump to turn things around for himself and have the American people view him in a more favorable light. Is there still time for him to do that in this pant I guess there is? I mean we're about Seven months away from November. Right now I don't I don't have a good feel for that. Honestly I mean it's been my best guess And this is this. Not wishful thinking. This is what I think is actually going to happen. Based on analysis icy we've talked. We talked about this at the beginning of the year. I think trump is likely to lose in November. And I think that's for several reasons we've outlined before before corona virus ever popped up. You know I think Mike Bloomberg's money is GonNa make a big difference and Barack Obama has been on the sidelines totally silent. I think once Barack Obama gets involved which I assume he will think that's really going to help drive up Democratic Boat. But will we even have an election on the day? I mean I we probably will but I who knows I think you have to yourself? What prominent people? I mean a lot of film. Celebrities have gotten this disease. What if some of them start to die What what how will that affect popular opinion? you know there since. This is more dangerous to older people than to younger people and it is. I you know everybody is saying everybody who knows about a pandemic city is saying this is going to get worse before it gets better. I'm just wondering what is that. GonNa look like an will. Voters let trump off the hook for that when he could have been on this at least a month sooner than he actually was and arguably almost two months sooner Especially as the wing everything that happens in the markets every day I know now. Do you like the stock market will be in better shape than it is right now by. Election Day. Well boy. I hope so as of this. We've got as of this podcast. You've got the Dow off nearly thirty seven percent in just a month time. I mean how low are we going to go? I guess we still my tests that But all the experts. I'm talking to say it's great all the monetary and hopefully fiscal stimulus. That's coming but at the end of the day if the headlines about the virus don't get better we don't start to see things moving in the right direction regarding the actual pandemic and the health of Americans. They don't see how the market can actually start to turn around to to build a sustainable rally. I mean we haven't had back to back rallies on Wall Street in more than six weeks right now and all the experts. I'm talking to say if you want just a glimmer of hope that you've hit bottom. You need to start seeing two or more consecutive up days for the stock market. You know. I'd also hope that our medical professionals who are advising president trump are talking about an exit strategy How do we exit out of a lock down? Because it's not just going to be v-shaped recovery as a lot of people had hoped in the beginning. I think it's becoming more and more clear that this can become a u-shaped recovery for this market a much slower gradual move to the upside and I'm wondering at least I'm hoping that there are plans for how we're GonNa vote come November November's along time away but even when this economy gets back up and running I don't know about you. I don't feel like running out being with a bunch of people and I don't feel like being line waiting to vote so happening. The podcast again in the same room. I know that I'll I'll get into room with you. That's not a problem but I mean when when I have to go with a bunch of people. I don't know if I want to do that. So I'm hoping that you know our leaders are thinking about this and planning for a strategy out of this this lockdown mode for a lot of states and also about. Well I think the I I actually think. We need to dispense with the idea of an exit strategy. Because I think this is going to be one of those things that you just muddle through and you never know when you have actually one until maybe it's in the past at some point in it's not gonna be a decisive victory. I mean the viruses not going to raise a white flag and say Eissa render. It's never going to be that. We do know that the development of a vaccine would be if a definitive a point at which everybody could get vaccinated and then we might be able to say okay. We finally got through this but as everybody points out that is Twelve to eighteen months away and then everybody has to get the vaccine so that would do it but what happens in the meantime. Can we get to a point? Where some parts of the economy come back online and it and we all feel that. It's okay for certain people to get back together. Do Face to face commerce in events and all the things we used to do again that depends on super aggressive public health strategies right now and testing testing testing so some of the physicians. I've been following. Say You have to be prepared not just to test people once but the test people multiple times and you have to do things like sample the population so just a random sample of the population all around the country. So you can figure out. What do we think the infection rate actually is and then then use that data to try to start narrowing in what you think you need to do? Can you identify places where the virus it looks as as has receded and then maybe you do sort of a contained a comeback of economic activity in that era by the same idea? Identify hotspots in as hot spots. Pop Up you need to put these warranties these sort of quarantine hot spots around the huge problem we have right now is because we don't know who has it and who doesn't we're going on the assumption that everybody has it at everybody is a spreader so we have to have better information. This is really a data problem and let me just attesting problem. Which makes you wonder if Mike Bloomberg had had stuck around data guy would have had a better chance we don't. He became mayor right after the tragedy of nine eleven Would he have had a better chance? Do you think we're what we're up against time. But what do you think I am not seeing anybody showing real leadership in terms of mobilising all resources from public sector private sector military anything else. That's out there mobilized all of those resources into one giant national effort to get testing everywhere. It's happening it is happening everywhere but it's happening. You know a little bit here. New York is trying to do each thing. Eleanor he's trying to do. Its thing. Who's WHO's running the show not clear at this point. Yeah we definitely need a more cohesive. You know group effort here even within our own. Our own borders all right. We'll certainly president. Trump is going to be judged that continues to be judged by how he handles his pandemic and it could mean whether or not he remains in the White House. Come November still so many question marks and Rick. Thank you for being with me. We're GONNA continue to talk about all this stuff in the days and weeks ahead in our election onyx podcast. Thank you all for being with us. We hope that you are staying safe and being well. I'd make sure to follow me at Alexis. Tv News and me. Rick J Newman. Are Everybody until next time you out.