Fantasy Baseball w/ Garion Thorne + Our Bryce Harper Reaction

Automatic TRANSCRIPT

Welcome. To painting corners, your weekly Bod gas or all things baseball. Now. Here are your host Austin Hartsfield, and Dave quit Caskey. Alright. So when David I started painting corners, there was a couple of people that I've wanted on the show, you know, everybody wants athletes, obviously won't we won't Red Sox. Eventually that'll happen. That's true. That's true. Go JJ out here with your JJ takes my ails MVP shut up. But when it came down to it. And you know, we were talking about dream guests the guy that's actually on with us today is was on my list in that is fantasy expert Gary Thorne from draftkings what's going on Gerri now. Too much guys nuts. It's it's nice to hear. Although obviously, not an athlete if I was I would personally hope I wouldn't play for the Red Sox. How he's Bluejays. I'm trying to. That's right. You're the Blue Jays guy. I always kind of forget their teams forgive me. And that's that's the thing is like we we are also in the same division as every team. And we have no rivals. And no one cares about us. Now. Just just below the radar a little bit. But yeah, so we got big news yesterday at the time of this recording Bryce Harper signed his huge deal yesterday. What's kind of the reaction from you? And what's kind of the reaction and what fantasy ramifications? Does this have? It's it's almost unfortunate. Just how boring I think my take on. This is like I just don't really see it changing his value all that much. I guess you could make the case and probably correctly. So that citizens Bank park has been one of the best non-core homerun hitters parks for the past three or four five seasons. I know by ESPN park factors last season was actually the best home run park in all of baseball. But you know, nationals park was a pretty good offensive park last season. So I don't think there's a massive change here. I think the big takeaway is just it's better than it was the Phillies than the giants, right? Yeah. Would want to see him playing at oracle the lineup. Bobby? Obviously doesn't have the same sort of luster at this point. Although adding Bryce Harper obviously help that. I think really the interesting thing is just what it does to us trying to project the Phillies lineup, which you know. It's going to be a good lineup anyway. And you could make the case that, you know, rising tide lifts all boats. But someone's gotta hit seventh in someone's gotta hit eighth now. And I know a lot of people kinda likes, you know, taking a flyer and like Cesar Hernandez. Eighty one ninety. But it just it just seems rough. And I know he had the injury yesterday to at the hip flexor. So that obviously puts a wrinkle in this too. But it's hard to envision a scenario where it's not mccutchen leading off. And then probably gene cigar batting second. So, you know, I it just maybe sort of tanks any perspective Allieu, we could have had with a Cesar Hernandez, pre Bryce Harper Phillies lineup that was probably gonna be pretty good anyway. So yeah, it's it's probably just the guys around her. Because I I don't know what you guys think. But I I really don't see this affecting it all that much. He's still just a top fifteen player. Borderline top five outfielder. I think I'm just pretty set in stone with that philosophy at this point, regardless of where he signed no, I'm pretty much the same way on that. Almost exactly to the only thing that fantasy value would increase in my opinion, would be RBI's depending where they put him in the lineup because guys are gonna get on base a little bit more, especially with adding JT, and you know, Sagarra, do you think there's a possibility that he somehow slides into that, you know, magic new two hole where they're gonna put you Aaron judge has been there. They're talking about putting Mookie Betts there. Do you think he jumps up to two and like that's new phenomenon 'cause gave cap was the big analytics guy. Yeah. You know, those type of things would that affect him negatively or just kinda also kind of balance out and the same. If he does get the two. Well, I think the to be okay for I mean, he's really like from an architectural standpoint. He is the guy you would want to bet second and Kappler would be the manager to do it as you mentioned. So that that's an interesting wrinkle to in the nice thing, you mentioned, the RBI total. And the possible RBI totally agree. I mean, I think that he'd be a very pristine spot. We're probably talking about a top five offense in all of baseball for next season. But if you've owned Bryce Harper throughout the years, you weren't really necessarily owning him for RBI upside. Anyway, if that makes sense like, I know we're talking about somebody who's been a National League MVP and has consistently got into that ninety RBI plateau. But it's not as if we're taking someone out of three four spot in a lineup who were expecting to get one hundred ten one hundred fifteen RBI's to bring back value. This is someone who just for the first time last season crested one hundred RBI, and it took him over six hundred seventy plate appearances to do it. So you wouldn't be losing that factor so much as I think he could still get to generally what his career average has been out of the two spot and his run production would probably just skyrocket. I mean, we we've seen. I'm not going to show. My Blue Jays alliances all the time. But we've seen. Gene, someone like Josh Donaldson. The couple years he was hitting second in a lineup. That was one of the two three four best a la- baseball. You know, one hundred twenty run production is is you know, it's it's on the table. So no. I think I would think exactly. So I actually think I would sorta like it if he moved into. But there again, there's really no wrong answer here. I guess if he moved to the worry is like, okay. What do they do with cigar? Because he doesn't really feel like he's a guy who would hit, you know, six does he move to seven to. It's their lineup is is super interesting to me. So when it comes to fantasy value, right? You talked about citizens big park and how great it is for hitters. How much is the ballpark? They plan actually affect the value of the player. And does it affect their ADP a whole lot? I think it's it's all specific to particular cases. I mean, the most obvious example, I guess would be the other new Philly if we wanna talk real new toe where you know, it's it's not always even about where they're going. It's about where they're leaving. And you know, if if you wanted to use ESPN's park factors, or even baseball perspective perspective factors, which account for handedness as well. It was Marlins. Mark was just the worst ballpark for a right handed hitter to be last season. So you know, that was one of those rare situations where anywhere he could have signed or could have been traded. It just was going to be an improvement in citizens Bank park is such a massive improvement that it, you know, it's it's eye-popping in a way. But I would say it's it's a it's it's like anything else. It's maybe when it comes to draft day, and you're kind of looking between two players. You have a similar tier? Maybe it's a way to tiebreak right up there with strength of lineup and run projections and stuff like that. But you know, I I would say break it out on occasion, it it's not like one of the first things. I look at what I'm trying to break down a player's value. But you know, definitely a park like citizens Bank. If if if it's if it's a guy going for Marlins park there. Sure, I think it's it's definitely something. We have to talk about when it's someone like Harper going from nationals park. It becomes less of a concern for me. Yeah. So it's not the biggest jump as you just saying from the ballpark dramatically shifting away. Harper lava for staying on top of that, you know, the big value who Harper is, you know, as you can be at the top of lineup and stuff like that. I mentioned before we get on the show that I was talking to some of my buddies about our fancy baseball league that we're starting up at know the draft is going to be at the end the March, and I always get into the bait, and I get in the same debate with people that have you know, one fantasy leagues have played a lot of fancy leagues and my whole philosophy on drafting at the top of the draft board. Obviously not later on is I go for starting pitching. I go for starting pitching in the first two if not three rounds pretty much every single year because my philosophy on it is you can always find an outfielder or utility guy that gets called up or starts blowing up mid year. You look back couple years ago. Tommy fan, Chris Taylor. Walker? Bueller is the exception for the pitcher? But Cody Bellinger, you look at all those young guys in most of the time they're going to be fielders specifically outfielders because of the way that you can, you know, kinda, you know, quote, unquote abuse. The system and say he's an outfielder everybody can be really plays first base a lot. But he's listed as an outfielder for everybody listening to home. What's your philosophy at the top of your board drafting, do you kind of share the same thing you go best pay player available? And is it always just a Mike trout show? Number one, usually Mike trout. Yeah. Although one of one might trout, usually. Yeah. But I actually I'm willing to hear the Mookie Betts arguments this season. Okay. I don't need it people. People don't talk. I don't think I don't want to get on my soapbox here that might trout is a bad player or anything. But you know, I it's sorta like Harper. I don't think we've talked enough about the fact that you know, for as much as we like to say Mike trout is eight five category player in theory in a vacuum. He is it's never really had the RPI production in mckees kind of had him in that category. The last couple seasons. But anyway, I think that's that's you know, if you have the first or second pick. It's it's pretty blessed situation to be in any way. But I I would say I'm pretty malleable, I wouldn't often start pitcher pitcher, and I guess it depends on. On the season. And it's all case specific, but I do find that sometimes when I'm looking at, you know, a standard five by five league, you know, there there is just the factor when you take a starting pitcher, a, you know, aside from their dominance in certain categories, like if you can get assures or something like that, you know, they are at best a four category player. Kaz not going to save games. So there's that aspect, but I would say this year specifically. I've really kind of taking taking a liking to starting with two positional players and then in round three and four. There's just the tier of guy past Corey kluber the tier that includes like Nola and Bauer and Snell, and to a lesser extent Severino, but Patrick Corbin starts to get in that mix as well. I just like a lot of those names. And I trust a lot of those guys. And I'm even finding with it seems like we've kinda started the backlash everyone expected to happen with lakes now, that's that's really picked up in the last couple of weeks. And he you know, we just started doing Justin Mason's fantastic fantasy baseball invitational. And it it does seem like some guys are little scared to go with Snell because of the strand rate because of the backup I'm cool with it. I honestly think we're moving to age baseball where you know, it's going to be the norm to have eight nine ten starting pitchers by season's end have a strand rate above eighty percent. So I think that tier is something I really liked to exploit this particular season. So that might be painting might early draft board a little differently than I would say, you know, every single season. I don't think I'm going to start positional player positional player. But this year, that's kind of how it's gone aren't your aunt. So I'm gonna through a couple guys that you that I kind of kind of curious on their fantasy. You have a guy like Andrew Benintendi, who's obviously a blossoming star who gets to play every day and who's going to get a lot of a bats. Then you have begun the other side who like friend Maria who's kind of endanger of splitting appearances with hundred foot. What's the value? Like, you said, they're obviously pretty different. I think the interesting thing. Benintendi is you know, you've got off core coming out and saying that he's going to bat leadoff this season. Which you know, it's it's hard to necessarily pencil a guy in from like a hundred and sixty games every single season. But you know, Benintendi over the last two seasons is shown his durability. He's gotten above six hundred fifty played appearances each of the last two seasons and not that he by any means as a ball player that needs volume to be a successful fantasy commodity. But in you're talking about someone who has the potential to be a five category contributor and was last season. Maybe the RBI's take a bit of a hit batting leadoff primarily. But if he's someone who can get to, you know, a franscisco Lynn door or Trey Turner level plate appearances this season if he can get to more than seven hundred plate appearances in one of the only two offenses in baseball that fan grass projects to be scoring more than five runs per game. He could very easily. Lead the league in runs. In fact. That's that's not the craziest thing to say. If I was putting odds on it. You know, it might be like six or seven to one that Andrew Benintendi leads the league in runs. It just makes a lot of sense to me. Then you factor in obviously someone who can just get twenty home runs twenty stolen bases. There's there's inherent safety in a guy like Benintendi. So I think right now where he's going inside the top thirty. I think that's pretty justified and raises is kind of the exact opposite end of the spectrum. Right. I think that there's obvious power in his bat and his second half even showed us that this power translates the major league level, but there's just so many warm bodies right now in San Diego. I have a hard time projecting. Just what level of usage he's gonna get. And you know, I think it was lad settler who does some great work for red a wire, you know, we talk about all. The time has stolen bases are probably the baseball statistic that is is missing the most in this era of baseball in the just the one we talk about so often where really from a fantasy perspective when it comes down to it. The most important stat is just played appearances. And I can't really figure out where I land with race. Now, I it seemed like a month ago he and hunter Renfro were kind of being drafted in a similar tier? And now Renfro was just completely surpassed him, which which I back. I just think that Renfro is obviously going to be the one who gets the benefit of the doubt gets the first crack at getting everyday at bats. And even the second half of his season showed that it wasn't just the left handed power. He could also hit right handed pitching at a reasonable clip. So and also, the Manny Machado thing is is kind of interesting because it clearly puts them in the box of a team that, you know, whether or not you actually think they have talent or the starting pitching to do this seems like. They think they're a contender. So one of my ways, you know, a month ago trying to think about how can I get friend mill raise to six hundred plate appearances was well, they probably trade. We'll Myers at some point. Everyone loves trading. We'll Myers, and it just seems like now they're kind of always big thing. Yeah. I just I I love friend Laura's. But I just can't figure out how I'm getting into the plate, you know, five hundred times this season. So we talked about some of the heavy guys. You know, the top draft picks. I asked my last question was basically, you know, where do you start off as ago batter pitcher pitcher Piter pitcher pitcher, batter, bad or whatever? It may. Be your Bluejays guy. The one thing that blew Jason. Hold onto right now is your prospects. Your prospects are top tier along with San Diego's who just mentioning and the lovely will Myers over there who everyone loves the trade when do you make that push for the big time prospects in a fantasy draft, for example of Ladd junior a Fernando ten TS junior. You know, those type of guys when you take those top five prospects and say, okay, it's the twentieth round. It's the fifteenth round is the thirty fifth round when you do it. And what is the justification on pulling the trigger on of Ladd or someone like that? Because there's so many question marks with you know, the service time. Time. And if they wanna bring up to a non contender, which you know, San Diego and the Blue Jays ten, you know, kind of pan out to be what's your philosophy on that? Yeah. I mean, they're obviously very unique cases. And I think right now just with where he's being drafted. I have a much easier. Time kind of tacking petits. And I think that where he's almost in a position, you know, what are you giving up if you're taking Totti's over you know, player x in round fourteen round fifteen. Just just just the trade off of possible. Upside I think I'm very comfortable going after a player like that. Even though we don't necessarily know we don't have nearly as clear cut a time line as when he's gonna show up in the majors in the season, though. I do think he's going to be in the majors. I portion of the year Vladi, you know, it's you mentioned it, it's it's sometimes we have to take into account or biases here. And I I'm almost worried I've I've I've justed for my bias too much. I really think Vlad he's go into high and he's sixty five on ESPN 's in head I play head to head in the top two hundred sixty fifth for when you should draft him. I feel like that's kind of crazy high. I mean in in the sharps league like NFC. He's going off the board on average pick forty point nine that. I held for guys hasn't even played yet. People are excited. Look, I get it. I get. No. Of course. If anyone gets it you do. Yeah. And the protection systems love them. And that's the thing. But. You know, I've kind of been trying to go back and compare him to the other top prospects. We get really excited about heading into drafts. Even though we know they're going to miss three or four weeks off the hop. And I think the thing that separates laddy from you know, somebody's other guys. I mean, a Kuna he was the allure of him was that he could be an instant five category contributor. We're at eighty four category at best. You know, you go back, and you look at what he's gonna see Lenny bags that guy. He's bags come on break second base. If he tries to. Even go back like Kris Bryant, the allure of Bryant who would a similar sort of archetype of laddy in that they're four-category players. I mean Bryant we were maybe didn't get the same level of buzz in terms of like, oh, this is a surefire hall of fame bat like gladdy is getting but he was supposed to possess generational power. And that means something fantasy like you thought that you were maybe getting forty home runs at a five months from this rookie, and it wasn't a crazy thing to project grads really interesting because the best case version of Guerrero. This season is probably that his elite category is batting average and more than any other category. Batting average is left up to the gods the baseball gods, and it's it's just so luck based and it's it's just hard necessarily look at a player with the price tag that high with so much uncertainty. Just because he doesn't have. Major league track record and go. Yeah, I'm paying for three hundred batting average. Because that's it's just a hard thing to necessarily say is going to happen. Now, you know, whether it's steamer whether it's the bat, whether it's pagoda all all of these projections systems think he's going to be at three hundred hundred but it's a lot to ask for a twenty year old kid making his major league debut. And and you know, you look at the rest of the stat line. I mean, Derek Cardi does a great job with the bat. It spits out a to ninety seven batting average twenty home runs. Seventy six runs seventy two RBI's, and that's an about five hundred eighty plate appearances. So that might even be a generous volume when it comes to plate appearances, you look at that projection line and just kind of go through some of the other players third base. It's basically the exact same line. You would get for like a Justin Turner or Daniel Murphy, and those are players going significantly after Ladd who we obviously have a certain level of comfort with. This point because we know exactly what they are. So you know, if my option is taking Guerrero in the fourth round or taking Justin Turner in the seventh round, I'm just gonna take Justin Turner. When David and I started painting corners, we weren't exactly sure. How all this thing would go. Where do we put it? How do even record an episode and get it on the internet. How do I get it on so many platforms? That's where anchor came in anchors one stop shop for recording hosting and distributing your podcast. Best of all at one hundred percent free ridiculously easy to use. And now a match you with some great sponsors who want to advertise on your podcast. I mean, you can get paid to podcast right away. In fact, that's what I'm doing right now by reading this ad anger has been great. It's allowed us to kind of spread the word about PC while getting paid for it. And talk about something that we love if you wanna do that. All you got to do is go to anchor dot FM slash start. That's anchor dot FM slash start. Yeah. I would I would take the shirt thing as well. Another kind of interesting thing one of the only players in history to get as many saves as he's done so quickly and. He has a World Series. Ring. He is on pace to break. The all time save record. I think at this point. He also is projected top hundred draft pick. He also doesn't have a contract. Craig kimbrel is probably the one of the most interesting. I think he's the most interesting pitcher in my the most interesting closer, as it say might be because, you know, about the Janssen to, you know, about the as, you know, about those guys, you know, what they're gonna give you and everything like that. But the Red Sox are team that won one hundred games last year. They won the World Series. They pretty much dominated the way through and they need a closer. And there's some good baseball teams out there that could use a guy like kimbrel. Do you think that he is a top hundred pick at this point because at the time recording it, it's you know, he's not signed yet. And there's about a month left until season starts, and you know last year. He started slow his daughter had a heart condition. He was in and out of the hospital with her he skipped the entire spring training last year and the first month or so is a little rougher. Him because it was basically extended student string training. He's in have that issue again just because he hasn't been pitching. Do you think he's actually going to get signed to a long term deal? And if he does or if he doesn't buy time, your your draft starts, do you pick him high and hope or do you just to let him go to the, you know, mid to end rounds? It's interesting because with wear he's falling. That's generally where I want to try and get my first closer. I don't ever wanna be the guy who takes the first closer off the board. Like, I'm not touching Edwin d as with a fifty foot pole this season. I'm more comfortable, the kind of go after you know, maybe the Roberta will soon as in. Yeah. Maybe the kimbrough's of the world. But it's it's just such a leap of faith. Now, I think despite him coming out a couple of days ago in saying, hey, maybe I'll sit out the season. I think that someone is going to sign him. He's just too good. He presents too much possible. Value for team. My worry would be in this, you know, in this age of building Super Bowl pens. You know, there's not a ton of pitchers out there who I would think are just straight up better than Craig kimbrel, especially, you know, sometimes I think about this remainders perspective to as much as I don't like to play like, you know, nineteen seventies baseball guy, a lot of managers are those. And I think they're gonna see someone with kimbrough's track record, you know, consistently having that closers mentality quote, unquote. Likely wherever he signs he's going to be the closer. But there are still a couple of situations. Like, you know, obviously, not going to New York or anything like that. They've too many pictures, but you see former closers signing with these teams to be on playoff rosters and becoming the seventh inning guy becoming the eighth inning guy. And when you're spending a top hundred pick on a guy who for all intents and purposes is a one category player. Now, basically, obviously, Kim pros also get you some nice strikeout numbers to in his innings, but y'all almost have to be certain he's going to get you that one category. So I think you're playing with fire a little bit. If you taken I've done a couple of drafts in the past week or so I've avoided him just because I to be fair. I almost already low taking closers so much that to take a closer where right now, I can't even definitively say he's gonna give me the one thing. I need him to give me. It's it's it's a ski situation. If mean, I feel like closers like kickers and defenses and football. You don't want to be the first one to take it off the board. And once the first one does come off. It's like they flood out everybody goes and gets it like it's just literally like they're waiting for that seal to break, and then boom, they're all going into round. So I'm with you on that. I wouldn't want to be the first guy to take them. But if I'm in my league and around five or six rolls around and Diaz gets taken. I'm jumping on next disclosure just I don't lose out whoever it may be. But I definitely wouldn't be the gods. Be like, you know, what it's the star of the fourth round. I'll get D as in there for sixty eight thousand six it's probably not gonna happen. So can you please tell everybody how unlucky Shane Bieber was last year? I mean, he was unlucky. I'll definitely say that, you know, even even anyone with a passing interest in fan grass just head to his page and see the bath was stupid. Rand rate was stupid, the fifth N E R A differential paints, a very positive picture of what is potential could be that. That's not to say though. I don't have concerns about Shane Bieber. You know, I'm not going to be someone. Who's like, I'm avoiding this guy. Completely by any means. But there's there's something to be said for someone who maybe lives in the strike zone. A little too much and you look at his own rate from last season. Forty eight percent the eighth highest of any pitcher with one hundred innings thrown. It seems like when he leaves his fastball in the zone. It's a pitch that can be hit. And we saw him have a lot of trouble with left-handed bats last season. Specifically that ball they hit three fifty three with a two forty one ISO off his fastball and the big issue specific to that split is. You know, his slider is his best pitch. Unfortunately, not a lot of right handed pitchers feel comfortable throwing sliders to left handed batters. And you know, he definitely falls into that class of pitcher his slider usage. Thirty three percent against righties. Just fourteen percent against lefties. So I don't necessarily know what the answer is because in in from a total standpoint, I really take a step back and just look at Shane Bieber. And you ask me for what what would be one thing. You would want Shane beaver to do more of in two thousand nineteen. I would just say I wish he would throw his slider. More. But clearly he can't necessarily do that against lefties in. That's the biggest flaw in his game. So I don't know what his solution to that particular problem is and that's that's my red flag. Now at the same time, obviously talented was obviously unlucky last season. And gets the benefit that every Indians pitcher does which is there's a there's a chance he gets sixteen to eighteen combined starts this season against the White Sox. The royals. I mean the twins could actually be passable offense this season. So maybe it won't include them in there. But you know, there is some very bad offense of teams in the AL central. I mean, we've seen Carlos Carrasco kind of feast on these three in particular teams for the last five seasons. So I think where he's going like, there's a tear of pitcher. It's like Nick Pavetti who has obvious flaws. But also as obvious upside got like Tyler glasnost who made we haven't seen enough from completely trust at water. Rodriguez. I feel like actually I keep ending up with Ed Warno Rodriguez and drafts. And it's it's usually come down to like do. I want Shane Bieber who do I want Iran. I keep taking a-rod. But again, I think it's I think he's in the proper tier? And I think there's obvious upside. But that's that's not to say don't have a couple of concerns. So what's the thinnest position fantasy was is it somewhere like second base? I mean because that's a second base catcher. I mean, what is are? We gonna are. We gonna do catcher seems like a cop out answer. Yeah. Even with you know, man, we lost another top top-five catcher today. It just there's there's just so little at catcher that I trust. But I think that that's a pretty set in stone answer. So shortstop is kind of interesting this season. Once you get past like, the big ten, but I actually think first base is just, you know, I it it's toughened in this kind of loops back to one of the initial questions we were talking about which is like, what's your what's your early draft velocity? I would say in a perfect world if I'm gonna twelve teamed raft my ideal first two rounds are I'm picking let's pick and fifth and I get JD Martinez at five and it comes back to me and one of Paul Goldschmidt or FREDDY Freeman or still on the board. And I just lock up first base because once you get past those guy as as much as as much as I like, Matt Olsen's potential as much as I think Jose Abreu just going to have a bounceback. Season. But you know, eat his he's a floor player. He's not a ceiling player. I think Edwin Encarnacion is going way too late and drafts. So there's there's value to be had at first base. But man, those two guys are on a tear by themselves. And you know, I don't even know if it goes like tier one tier two I think it's like tier one tier two is blank. And then tier three starts. So I really liked getting one of those two guys in the second round. So that might just speak to a worried. I am that the depth first base windy. You take the speedsters not necessarily, you know, trade Turner and whitmire field because they do other things. Well, batting average. They get on base. But when you take guys like Buxton and Hamilton who don't hit well, but once they do get on base, you might as well put them on third. I mean Buxton boxes real interesting because it's spring training numbers have been fantastic in and we've seen that immediately reflected in his eighty p I've seen him. Now. Go is a sixth round pick a seventh round pick even as high as fifth round pick. And I I wish I could remember who actually made this comparison because it's a great thing to remember when it comes to guys as talented Buxton is his numbers through his first four major league seasons mirror that of Aaron Hicks in a very very creepy similarity. So, you know, it's it's probably too early to say just like a blanket statement like Byron Buxton can't hit. So I think with at least with Buxton you're still getting a little bit of upside of. Yeah. There's still a chance where Hamilton we just now except as an inherently flawed player, but Billie is really interesting because it took us so long to finally let go a now we might have let them drop a little bit too far. Like, you you look at the level of stolen base threat. We're talking about with Billy like, we know he's an elite stolen base guy. Even if the numbers dropped off a little bit last season. But you know, you you go through some of the players who were able to steal excess of thirty basis last season. They all have ADP's inside the top one hundred aside from maybe Dee, Gordon, and you know, there's generally a person who's willing to to really move up in draft a guy like the Gordon because at a certain point, you know, maybe if you did start out JD Martinez. Freddy Freeman pitcher pitcher there's a good chance, you need elite stolen base guy. So. You know, it's it's always hard to to really make your draft strategy around. Like, oh, I'm going to get Billy Hamilton in the twelfth round. Because you know, maybe someone has a similar strategy in in their strategy. It's the eleventh, and if you've waited that long to address your stolen base needs. And you don't get Billy Hamilton will now you've essentially punted stolen bases. So it's a risky strategy. But I just look at his ADP in comparison to every other guy who we just say set in stone. We'll get thirty stolen bases this season. And it's it's not he's the outlier. We've we've we've let them drop a little bit too far. Now, dude is bad at hitting. There's there's no way around good. And there's a there's a very good chance. He just back ninth for the royals which is one of the worst situations you could possibly pick for a fantasy player that is that that's that's rough especially with Sal Peres likely not in that lineup now for most of the season if not the entirety of the season. So I think he's he's a one. Category player, maybe one and a half if he can get to like seventy runs scored. But I do think like this is the year to draft really Hamilton. Because. Even last season, knowing all I don't think anyone's perception a Billy Hamilton is really changed all that much from last season. He went as the fortieth overall pick in like the Festa experts league last year. So with him now going outside the top two hundred in some drafts. It just seems like a really easy way to exploit stolen bases. If we're talking about fantasy numbers. Is there anybody who's very good fantasy baseball and not very good a real baseball. I mean, Billy seems like a pretty good option for that spot. Yeah. Bitlis Bitlis the stock answer. And I wanted to give you guys one that maybe wasn't just Billy Hamilton. I think Ian, Desmond kind of falls into that category. You know, just tons of holes in his swing as never really been very good defensive player. Even though he has the positional flexibility that sometimes can kinda fool like war into giving him a couple more points than maybe he should. But yeah, I would just say Desmond. I it's kind of the double whammy with him too. Is he's a guy who I don't think very highly of as an actual real life baseball player, but he has power. He can steal bases es es in a situation. Generally, Rick and drive in runs and on top of that, you know, he gets the plane Colorado, which is, you know, the closest thing we have to steroids in two thousand eighteen so I think that Desmond is just someone who through. Weird fantasy Nisha abilities. And the fact he gets to play. At Coors field is probably like the worst. Best fantasy baseball player. Would if we flip it. And we said who's a really good based on very bad fantasy baseball is a guy like Jackie who in care Meyer who great defensively, but don't put up the offensive numbers or what's the case? I guess care Meyer cameras a good one because I would say Jackie. I just think any anyone in that Red Sox lineup. It is just has the potential to be a very very good player. Like, you know, I bagged just bagged on Billy for being the ninth hitter in the royals lineup. But there's something to be said for being the ninth hitter the Red Sox lineup like it's it's it's not that bad a spot. So I think he has the potential obviously a stud outfielder, but I would say like your your cure Myers. I guess polar is not even as good defensively anymore. I think angelsen Simmons is probably the poster child for that just guy with high contact rates doesn't strike out a whole lot just the best defensive shortstop in all of baseball. You know, he had a five and a half wore last season, which seems crazy 'cause I can't remember myself at any point thinking like, oh, I have to watch this game. And it was in Simmons's playing, but probably the best the best example of that would be him. I would even kind of put a guy like miles. Mike, listen to that list to just a very very commendable pitcher a guy with with. With pristine control someone who is going to log you two hundred innings, which is really a dying art form in baseball. But you know, the strikeouts or lack thereof do hurt his fantasy value. So that's generally like the archetype of player. I'm looking for from the pitching of perspective when I say, they're better real life than fantasy like, you know, Marcus Stroman used to be a great example of that. Although he's kinda fallen off a cliff, but I think Michael is kind of picking up the torch. Our he might have left off is strumming the bounceback. I don't know. What's wrong with him at this point? Because the next question was basically, how excited are you? For the Blue Jays this year. I'm excited. Baseball's back. I'm going to be excited in, you know, the last week of April, I guess when, you know glad he's had his seasoning. And is now a major league ready player. And it just just ironically happens to coincide with the extra year service time. So that'll be fun too. I don't I don't know with Marcus Stroman. He. You know, he dealt with a lot of injuries last season. I think that's not something you can necessarily just sweep under the rug. But you know, he he had a weird amount of control issues that I don't think you can just close your eyes and pretend didn't happen. And he also just gets crushed when he leaves pitches up in his own he and Aaron Sanchez are just really strange, obviously talented guys, but still flawed in their in their own individual ways. So yeah, I'm not really looking forward to like from a vantage perspective, not really looking forward to draft any any of those guys. Really? You know, I've got a soft spot my heart for Randall Grischuk at all times. He's he's just, you know, the barrels the barrels king, and I think he should be appreciated for that. But yeah, not not overly excited to to. Specifically watch Blue Jays games. You know, we're talking about the Blue Jays and talking about Blad somebody that has no fantasy value who just text me is our friend Phillies pitcher Cole urban. He said make sure you mentioned that I struck out twice in the minor leagues. There we go. Actually, I was I was reading a stat today. Apparently he only struck out in the same game nine times in his career in minors. So I don't know if this happened in the same game. But if they did your body's got story. Yeah. He's fighting for your spot right now. And he gave up a bomb to Brent Rocard yesterday. So it's not looking good. That's tough. Yeah. So who's the breakout player for twenty nineteen and who's the bounceback player? I'm always believing that Randall Grischuk is is a day away from his forty home run season. So just winning. Still winning on it. No way. I mean. Hey, look, second half was great soon as he came back from injury. I think breakout, you know, maybe I'm taking this a little too far down the line. But someone my do really really like who you can basically get for cheap. If you've already done your draft. So you can pick them up off the waiver wire. Trevor Richards to me seems really interesting with the Marlins when when I'm looking for a breakout guy eight, you know, sometimes it's just as simple as who has a pitch that I think could just you know, revolutionize who. He is as a pitcher in Richards changeup is fantastic. You know, twenty seven point two percent strike rate in the second half last season. That changeups got a twenty five percent whiff rate. You know, he is someone who has a lot of change at pitchers have had happened to them. He someone who tends to struggle with right handed bats even in those right on right up. So that is a little bit concerning. But he's got a great ballpark win expectancy. He isn't too high. So that's a little tough. But I do think if there's just a random guy who we start seeing the top of like, you know, strikeout percentages in the middle of may. I think it could be Trevor Richards. So I think he is someone who may be a lot more people are going to know about him than currently know about him now and for bounce back guy. Let's let's just immortalize. You guys Red Sox fans and me as as fan, I truly think airy Sanchez is just gonna bounce back. He can't be worse. And that's that's a good place to start. He cannot be worse. That's an important thing to remember. But you know, it's it's just one of those things. Sometimes when you're talking about that downs back is you you want something tangible. You wanna reason why it all went bad? And obviously there's concerns with Gary Sanchez as a player he's got holes in his swing. But at the same time with you see someone who was obviously injured in to go so far as he is he's I think he did actually play sometime this week in spring. But he or or maybe it was actually he's going to debut today, but we had off season shoulder surgery and in in your head you'd think like, okay, if someone's really been having issues with their left shoulder all season law on where would that kind of crop up in to me the first thing I thought about was he probably really struggled hitting pitches on the outside quadrant of the plate. And you look at his numbers. Like his his contact rates for the outer third of the plate were below seventy percent last season. And that was just not something we saw at all in two thousand seventeen any then, you know, there's there's this initial reaction to wanna put some on the Pedro Serano category where they just can't hit breaking pitches. And that was certainly the case with Sanchez season. But again, we didn't see that in two thousand seventeen we have a full seasons worth of evidence. The Gary Sanchez should be able to hit breaking pitches. You know in that in that two thousand seventeen season he had to ninety two batting average in a two thirty six isolated power off of sliders and into see it last season. Go all the way down to a point zero six seven isolated power. Again. I think it just speaks to the fact that he was somebody who could not show his power to the outside play because his shoulder was just dogging him, you know, pitchers obviously saw that. Because of all of whole qualify players last season. He saw the fewest amount of fastballs just forty five point five percent. So I think the book was out on. I think everyone knew he was hurt. And I think they took advantage of it. So if he is healthy this season the fact that he plays catcher he doesn't really have to improve all that much to be back in the good graces of fantasy owners. I just think in a lineup that if he can hit two forty he's he's gonna bring back value. So I do think he's someone who's just trying to bounce back this season. He's. Like you in the lineup like that. If he's even remotely what he is the year prior to last year like they could be lethal man that could be a problem. Well, like I said fingertips only two teams projected to score more than five runs per game. And it's the Red Sox Lieque's, probably probably not surprised anybody. But I think the pencil both those squads in for eight hundred runs this season. It's it's not jumping the gun. I I think that's more than fair. So I you know, if he's going to bat fourth or fifth or even if he's betting six to start the season. That's that's not a bad place in the in that particular lineup in that ballpark. And like you said he can't get any worse. So technically has denounced Bax so tiller everybody who you are where you're from. And your Twitter handle where they can find you on social sure at Garin thorn on Twitter. The virtue of having a real weird name is I I don't have to do anything freely with that on yet. If you wanna fall on my work mostly based draftkings right now. So check out the decay playbook on Tuesdays, I kinda have like a fun potpourri article where I generally will be. Writing about baseball. So make sure to check that out in. I'll have your DFS baseball needs covered over there to also writing for the decay live app. So make sure to download that. That's where we get all your other good solid apps out there the app store, or what have you so? Yeah. Thanks. Thanks so much for happy. Guys. A lot of fun.

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