Franchise-Tag-Deadline Recap and How to Spend Money in Free Agency
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Show part of their podcast network. I'm kevin joined today by nola prints yada and warren sharp. Warren just revealed as soon as we started recording. The he's listening to taylor swift warren. What's going on buddy. I don't know we gotta famous star covering another star. Stars are aligning here. I've been checking out his new series. It's been pretty cool. And so happy to happy to hear her exploring one of her passions a little bit more and share out with the rest of us has been pretty neat otherwise for me. I'm just this head down working on some offseason projects and Happy to join you guys. So we're going to get to a couple of those projects. There's a lot to talk about. Say they'll what happened today nora a lot. I'm i'm still. I'm trying to not got a little misty eyed love that we're making a swift data. Warren sharp yeah. A lot went down very newsy day. Not just the tags. And the non tags onto david re-signed with the bucks kyle long turning to the nfl. Trent brown gets traded back to the patriots essay. Wilson dolphins just a lot there. We'll start with the tags and the nontaxed. So the franchise tag deadline was today. Tuesday here the players that got tacked bucks wide receiver. Chris godwin the bears tagged allen robinson. Which i think we all. Maybe for content's sake thought might not happen but it always was the the thing that made more sense as long as the bears could afford it. The saints signed marcus williams. Bit of surprised there Jets got marcus. Maye on the tag. Leonard williams with giants cowboys quarterback prescott procedurally got tagged. But obviously he resigned his deal on monday rain. Insure for the western football team. Jaguars came robinson and the panthers. Taylor moton warren sharp. You look at this tag west. What do you think is the biggest deal well. I'm just looking back i think. What is there is there. Ten or eleven in either case is less than fifteen that we had in two thousand twenty. But it's more than what we had in the prior several years to that we had six twenty nineteen six in two thousand eighteen. Seven twenty seventeen. We had a high water. Mark of of ten franchise slash transition tag players in two thousand sixteen and prior to that. The three years were all well below ten as well. So we're seeing It's not as much as last year but last year really stood out I think overall we're seeing a pretty good number of these players being utilized in the one that kind of jumps out to me. I think is One of the better players who. I would've loved to see him get a long term deal but maybe this means he'll be leaving next. Year is Is allen robinson. I just want him to find a a a quarterback to throw the football. I'm interested to see what chicago ends up doing from that perspective as well. Yeah i think. That's i mean alan robinson. There are very few players. I hope for good thing more roms just because even go to college what he's had to go through the quarterback position nor when you look at that list stands out here we just talk about the saints and get it out of the way fired up about this. This unbelievable they keep spending money. Hey whatever they know they can find a way. No what are you. Are you surprised. No at this point i am a i am now a saints capture. It's not real. It's not real the sensor take Not here's the thing it's not it's not it's not it's not it's not and they just keep going deeper into the hole and it's really stressing me out and i mean i get it like williams is a great player. But here's the thing is that i have a lot of questions about if they're going to be able to keep the top two guys from that same draft that he was a part of ram checking lattimore who would both theoretically be on their fifth year option. They be over the cap numbers this year if they extend those guys but holy smokes. Are we seriously just going to keep doing this. And then the other question where is where is the one hundred million dollars going to come from like seriously. Where is it going to come from. I have so many fans in my mentions being. If you cut kwan. Alexandra chiefs fourteen million dollars. Do you know what fourteen million dollars is. Not a one hundred million dollars. What the hell is going on here. So marcus williams is the second highest grade safety since twenty nineteen according to pf. He was the fifteenth ranked for ag. Promo focus as well. He's kind of guy you want to keep and if you can do it and you could afford it It's good business by the. But i'm with you nor i continued to be astounded by this and i just don't born. Where are we in a sense. Our gap do you believe it exists. I would love to see what happens if they can't get it down. I mean i wanna. I'm rooting this rooting for you know something to actually occur here where it doesn't fall in line with what typically happens in there somehow able to make magic. I want to see what happens when things blow up and they have they always seem to figure out a way. So i'm not gonna hold my breath here. I think that they're going to figure out a way like nora and you. I'm going to be shocked and surprised to figure out how they're going to get there but inevitably i think they somehow figure it out. What happens if they're just over the cap that happened in the nineties. A handful of times and teams got find a lot of money. So it's not going to have it had that we haven't had that in. I believe over two decades but we can. we can look into it All right so yeah i i. I don't think that there were many surprises on this list. Wish the non-tax your. Because i think that that's that's more intriguing because obviously these players are gonna go out to the open market so hunter henry from chargers can day for the lions titans. Jonnu smith Juju smith schuster from the steelers. Texans why she will fuller trent williams from the forty niners who could not be tagged Deal but sounds like he wants to come back for deniers you've been talking about since december The buccaneers shock barrett. The and obviously the chris godwin check their decision that the bucks had to make was was interesting. One and we'll get that in a second bud dupree from the steelers yanni gateway the from the ravens shack griffin from seahawks. Aaron jones of the packers. Kara lawson the bengals. William jackson with the bengals joe tony from the patriots and rams safety john johnson worn. I wanna talk about the bucks. The super bowl champions. Who tied chris. Godwin and didn't tag jack barrett they get onto. David done everyone assumes shack bear comes back on a big deal How does their sort of team building. Look for you Do they make the right decision. And beyond that if the bucks just run it back next year and collect bargain free agents or whatever. It had the same team which might happen because the way the cap isn't away. Some of the prices are going up. Your is that good enough to win the super bowl if they just run it backwards. It's it's good enough because it can happen. It's not going to be optimal for them. It's not going to put them as like the front runners to make it happen. Obviously i liked as the season progresses. How they seem to take on more of tom. Brady's identity things more intelligently as the season progressed that were in the best interest of the football team even as it related to as quickly as late in the season as the super bowl itself changing up a few things and doing some things differently. Like that i play of the super bowl was play action pass when they ran the ball so often on first down as like okay great. They're actually going to change a little bit. And i think there's better things in store for them just from an efficiency perspective on offense that we can expect them to receive next. Offseason are sorry during the off season and into Next season i think locking up godwin was very important for them. He provided a massive asset there that they get for at least a twenty twenty one. Football season overall. I think that they're still going to be a good team because of brady. And because they have the talent on offense and their offensive line is still going to be intact. Until i don't think they need to make as many additions in free agency this offseason but i do think that they're going to be other teams. That are perhaps a little bit more able to make a lot of free agent acquisitions that are going to say leapfrog them. But beyond that level playing field with them as strong competitors and keep in mind they did some smart things last off season. I think they signed fifteen unrestricted free agents. One of which was tom brady. Fourteen of those fifteen were only on one year deals. We're going to see the ability for teams to be getting guys on one year deals this offseason with the number of guys that are available and the potential for the cap to be much higher and twenty twenty two so They still can make some moves. But i think a lot of other teams are going to be super teams. Potentially that are going after some of these guys that are going to make the competition. Really strong dole agree. The number of bridge contracts. We're gonna see over the next couple of weeks. He's going to be fascinating to watch because there are so many guys wants to cap spikes in a couple of years. No charles robinson. Had i think the report of the day. There's so much been going on so much has been going on kinda got lost but trump's and said that there's a co- people in the league think in just a few years this hour cap could touch two hundred fifty million dollars right and you look at the way that the tv contracts was to come down that tracks like it's supposed to visit double the tv revenue wants the the contrast down later this week and once that starts trickle into the cap. Yeah there's going to be a huge explosion and so if you're reaching free agency this year you might wanna sign a one year deal And hope that there's a huge spike next year or two year deal and know that is going to be spike in two years. So i think you're gonna see that timing. I think you could see what you're describing though super teams. I think it's fascinating nora when you look at this list and i what i like about franchise tight deadline day is now. We have to speak hypotheticals because we know who's actually reaching the open market when you look at this list if you were just your average team you and and let let's say let's say you're a blank slate. Okay who has your number one free agent on your big board here. It didn't get tight today if you're if you're just going out and saying i want this guy just from a pure skill and talent standpoint where you going it's shaq barrett. Yep i think. And i'm kind of well. I'm taking trent williams out of this. Because i'm pretty sure he's going to stay where he is. But i think it's shaq barrett just a premier pass rusher someone who can really make an impact on a defense born same question if you're if you're a gm and you have just a team that needs every position who you're targeting on this list of the non-tax well i can tell you who i'm really interested to see what type of contract he signed it. S aaron jones. The running back from the packers but others lists. I'm looking for some difference. Makers i wanna see will fuller kenny golladay. Those are two guys can open some things up on some offenses and really give teams. Would either of those guys signed for a one year deal on. I don't know why would they want more money. Like that's the type of thing that is exactly as you said fascinating. Those are the two guys for me and we had a conversation recently about Fuller kevin and i did. His free agency is really interesting to me. Especially now that robinson has been tagged because you take the guy who if he'd gotten there would've been the number one guy at that position. It's still good receiver year. But you kind of take the premier dude off the board and then to me for that just slightly below tear. It gets even more interesting. There's less money to go around but teams need these players and there are really good ones available so how that pie gets divvied up was was interesting before but i think even more so now that that robinson is staying in chicago nor matchmaker here golladay and will four paramount of the team that has money to spent. Okay well. let's stay on. Let's stay on fuller for a second again. Because i want to get warrants thoughts on what. We talked about that other pod. We talked about the cardinals and we talked about the colts. Two offenses that. I think it would be really fascinating to see what happens with those when you inject the speed element that makes willfuller who he has worn. What do you have any thoughts on. Either of those. those fits. i kind of liked the colts a little bit because to me. That's a that's a position room that could utilize his deep threat speed. And i think it with ty slowing down and now phasing out like i think that will fuller would be magic there. I think the cardinals you know. That's a passing at least in in indy. I don't get too down on what they're doing in arizona but at least in india. I feel like yeah. The quarterback is unknown but they've got a strategy there with the way they want to incorporate players and utilize their passing attack. I feel like in arizona. There's a lot of questions about cliff kingsbury usage of some of these guys in how the inner change in i feel like more confident i feel willfuller. We'll have a higher ceiling in indianapolis for certain and i would rather see that parent personally cuisine. Clifford just one second. Because i know this is a bit of an aside by wanna dive into it because i think warn you and i were both pleasantly surprised in the first year of clendenin clip takes a step back year. And and i'm at the point. Now where when you have used entire tenure. Even though i was down on the higher to begin with. I have been disappointed relative to the expectations. I've had for cliff coming into last year and cuyler coming into last year. Because i really thought the collar was going to make a leap like we've seen from a lot of these other second year quarterback. I still love tyler. I think he's a franchise quarterback all that stuff big picture in arizona as cliff the guy and what is cuyler ceiling in two thousand twenty one. I mean tyler is just so dynamic If he stays healthy but there is. There is a ceiling there. I think that ceiling is lower on clifton is in cuyler for. I think i think tyler gives them more. I think cliff just needs to figure out what he wants what he wants to do. I saw a lot of great adjustment from him. That first year there adapting what we thought was just going to be straight up for verts all the time doing a lot. More things in basing it based upon who is healthy and when they were available and what. The defense was weak against. But i didn't feel like we got a very good rhythm or consistent pictures to what their offense was last season. And i think he's going to take a little bit of work for him to perfect what he actually wants tyler to do and the time of excuse making for him being a guy who's just getting his feet wet in the. Nfl is coming to an abrupt end. Because you're gonna lose the ability to have cuyler on a great rookie quarterback deal very soon and so you have to make some big strides this off season to improve what you're doing especially as that. Nfc west improves their teams as well. We should see a better. San francisco forty niners team. We should see a better quarterback behind center for the los angeles rams and as a result i mean. Let's pretend that. Russell wilson is staying in seattle for the time being you're gonna have some great opponents in that division that you're gonna have to work your way past and right now i just don't have a lot of confidence in cliffs plan and I'm really curious to be honest with you as a breakdown. That offense more this offseason what i think. They need to do differently this upcoming year. I'm not to the point where i can give specific recommendations but we know what they were doing. Last year was was not maximizing their potential. I would also say that the the time of excuses is over for any college pro coach because the gap between college and pro game has never been more narrow like this is the great merging of all the levels of football is one of the last decade. And so if you come from college now you're hired essentially because you understand the college offenses which have now become the nfl offenses and there's just a. There's there's no leap there. This isn't jimmy. Johnson being hired by the cowboys in the eighties. You your strength. Is your college scheme. And you'd that should be able to work almost out of the gate in the nfl. So the fact that it's your to if we're still giving cliff any excuses That's probably misguided. Well i wanna come back to to it and give him his due in this. But it's just funny because to your point hunter henry who's going to be the premier tight end. His football life goes back to plastic academy arkansas. The school where they don't punt which has so much to do with the arc of how all those different levels of football have melded together over the last few years. So it's just a funny coincidence in terms of what you were just saying bill. Ballot check is friends with the coaches. Who don't want yesterday early loves and loves a lot of like screen grabs of postgame. Congratulations and general. Lovey-dovey between check and hunter henry. Really know what what the patriots would be doing with. Hunter henry at this current moment but there's definitely appreciation and A lot of good feelings there but on golladay. This one is in some ways. Maybe not as interesting to me is fuller. Just because he's kinda guy now which means he's probably gonna end up on one of these teams. That just have a lot of money like the dream. Scenario i think is the dolphins to pair him with parker. But the other the other people who are really going to be in contention i would guess would be either of the new york teams the jets or the giants Or the jaguars. And i don't the thing about sort of overlaying matt on what those offenses are going to look a little bit to a lesser extent with the giants boat with the jets and the jaguars. It's just kind of like. They are such a blank canvas and kenny. Golladay is not a bad guy to start painting with. But i do wonder how he feels about that at this point in his career. Because i feel like he's gonna end up just like getting a bag from one of that group. That has it to give out my friends. No two people are alike. A no to tax returns are like either thankfully. Turbo tax live has experienced tax experts. Were ready to listen to you. Learn about your unique tax situation and help you get the best tax outcome. I need this help. I'm going to be looking at how i can deduct my gambling losses the year. Maybe you got married this year. Have questions about how that affects your filing status. Whether you want to file with the help of an expert or let expert file for you. Turbo tax live tax experts. Give you the confidence to know that your uniquely you. Taxes are done right intuit turbo tax. Today's episode is brought to you by the santa fe. Less more fun when you're out finding adventure new santa fe is designed to help you get more out of that quality time. The hyundai santa fe is the capable. Suv with intuitive technology. The newly redesigned santa fe offers h track all wheel drive capability and to attack and safety features to get you where you're going with confidence with personalized style to do it your own. It's an suv. Bill a family in mind proving out together truly better family focused features key dynamic safety features such as the dual blindspot view monitor to keep protection a top priority. The hyundai santa fe is a fun vehicle built with bold design and intuitive tech. Built for all your family's teams whether it's daily runs summer road trips or winter. Driving conditions to santa fe allows you to seek moments of quality time in adventure outdoors folks. It's colder all over the place. And i can't imagine a better car to drive around and find new adventures in then the santa fe Just get in the car. Get the family loaded up and start driving and find a cool place. It's winter more but the santa fe by going to hyundai. Usa dot com. warren. I. it's interesting to me when their list of the non-tax rushing for agency. They need to be concentrated at two positions skill guys and pass rushers Because i'm looking at your holidays. Your henry's you're you're your jus you're will fuller. And then on the other side you have shaq barrett bud dupree. Yachting gakugei of carlson obviously would talk about matthew john earlier. Another defensive lineman You have studied a lot and we're going to get you this little later in the show. What how teams who win. Spend their money It smart to go after a pass catcher in free agency. Is it smart to go. After a pass. Rusher in free agency What if you were to This is a broad general question. But if you're looking at how smart is spend their money. Do they go after. These two skill guys or is going to be teams. Tend to make. Mistakes are the ones who go. After and give a ton of money to a hunter henry or give a ton of money to a bud dupree. No i think. I think it's the latter the teams that are going to go after these. I think Nor made the perfect argument. You have a guy. Like kenny golladay. Who's just going to get a big bag from one of the teams. That doesn't have a good quarterback yet and doesn't really know what they wanna do. One is attempting to incorporate a new offense of system in there and you know he may not actually produce for them and then we're going to look back in a couple of years a hey this was tremendous waste of money to spend on a guy who is only getting seven or eight targets a game And maybe was injured. A couple of the weeks like it's just not a great usage of your money. The teams that are going to be making the smart decisions. This particular off season because of the cap issues are the ones that are going to be able to convince certain select players of this group. Run it with me for one season. And so i look at a guy like a jonnu smith who could be a great access asset. And i'm thinking man. What if buffalo could convince him to quote there for one season dot would be a pretty fun pairing you so it really is going to factor and i wonder how many of these guys are going to look at it and say what are the best teams quarterback situations. I can go into for one year and then try to hit free agency. After i make a little bit Of money but more so produce some great numbers in this new location for one season and then move elsewhere but there are gonna be some teams out there inevitably because they're always are. There are going to fork over a ton of money for a guy like bud dupree or somebody like that and maybe in a couple years end up regretting it nor were the next. Let's say three years of alan robinson. The black oh. Wow he's got to get out of this man happiness right at some point. There's happiness at some. You know what. Yes i am. I am an optimist. He suffers through another year and then he he gets out and he buys a really nice house. If he doesn't already own one i i'm sure he has a nice house. Twenty seven years old. He will turn twenty eight in august. He has two straight seasons of one thousand yards But the year before that in two thousand eighteen he was hurt. Obviously fourteen hundred dirt season in two thousand. Fifteen with jacksonville I think playing out the tag is okay. Listen one thing we learned the dak prescott thing and obviously it's a different pace. Go who's your quarterback but the tag can be your friend. Okay and i remember talking to people on the players side in the union side a couple years ago and they're saying listen. The tag stinks as far as player movement and all that stuff. I remember talking aaron rodgers couple of years ago. And he said there was one thing he could do with player movement. It would be to move the franchise tag And then a couple of weeks later. He signed an extension. Because in large part packers would've kept tagging up is aaron rodgers But he still could make a boatload of money using the tax And using short deal. So i think with some combination of short deals anna tag. He can make a bunch of money and can get eventually to where he needs to be done next year. And maybe maybe big. maybe maybe. The bears have a good quarterback next year. I don't know he's also a great case. Study in that. It doesn't necessarily matter what numbers he puts up next year. If his quarterback is not great people are always going to recognize him in free agency. The following off season is this guy is the premier blue chip wide receiver. All of his numbers have been depressed because of these crappy quarterbacks that he's had the work within the past so What he needs to do is invest in a little program of self love and just get through this season and then hopefully he can move on like you just mentioned self care frown robinson self care. Is there any other. And i guess you would say analogous player to to roms more that we don't talk enough about where you know. I remember actually. Kevin demos told me this belt robert woods. How he they identified robert woods when he was in buffalo as a great player whose numbers were depressed because of his quarterback And maybe there's no answer here. But if there is kind of the next allen robinson were in two or three years. We're going be saying hey. This guy's an elite wide receiver redesigned the quarterback help Is there anyone. You can point to I actually would go. Maybe maybe we're talking like dj more or somebody like that. So many indicator allina system because we didn't get a whole lot to see two years ago last year. We teddy teddy's great for you know winning games. You don't think you're gonna wind staying closing games. But he's not a premier type quarterback in and. I do think that there are some talented receivers down. There and dj more is definitely one of them who is probably getting a little bit overlooked. Because the team's record and the quarterbacks that he's had to work with but he's not the only one. I mean there's a number of different guys around the league. Who who are suffering with sub quarterbacks for a couple of years. But there's no doubt you go all the way back to college and look at the quarterbacks at allen roberts zad the work with and i don't know if we've seen a a better receiver suffering with worse caliber of quarterbacks passing the football for such an extended stretch than we've seen allen robinson. I'm sure there are some other guys. But he's definitely up there. My dream that to shawn watson and alan robbins find each other somewhere. That would be so beautiful we would just see. We would obviously his stars stars. I don't care where it is. I just want those. Two guys playing together soulmates. Everybody up incredible numbers and they went a bunch of games or manifesting that right now An not a skill position player but the inverse of what. We're talking about and one that i'm interested to see what happens. Is bud dupree. Because he's going to get a little bit of the okay yeah. Production is acts. But look who you were playing with. Look at all the pass rushers in pittsburgh who all made life easier for each other right. And i think it's a fascinating like he's a really good player right but he's a bit of a high quality. Generalists does a lot of things really well hard to say exactly like one thing where it's like. Oh bud dupree is the best player at doing this. And that's an interesting position to be in this year. I think because you can. You can kind of start to poke holes in the case. Which i think is a little bit silly because the big picture is that. He's a super good player. But that's a test case. I think for what happens to a guy at the higher end of the market in this strange year because you can still put together the case where teams might start to. Penny pinch a little bit. So i'll be interested to see what happens with him kind of in the in the inverse way from what we're talking about so the steelers and the bengals and the ravens are. There are the three teams that have multiple players on the non that in theory could have intact One both sides of the ball for the steelers juju who basically priced himself out of bit promote really good and they have chase claypool all that stuff and and do just gonna commit a lot of money. bud dupree the side of the ball worn. Ask you this with with the two players. They're losing with ben rothlisberger coming back next year. Broad question are the steelers is going to be good. I think the steelers are going to be good. I don't know that they're going to be great. But i think going to win team. I think they will have a floor. As long as ben doesn't get hurt of seventy eight wins and they've got a ceiling of yet ten ten to eleven depending upon how everything breaks around them. I don't personally think that juju was that he he was not a difference maker for them and they've they're just so good at bringing in wide receiver talent that i think they will be fine. I also like the move that they made in the off season with getting rid of their coordinator randy fichtner and allowing matt candidat to take over the reins there. I think there were a lot of things that canada was brought to pittsburgh. Four prior to twenty twenty that he wanted to try to incorporate but we are dealing with an abbreviated offseason and somebody else who was ultimately calling the shots there as the oc which was restricting some of his creativity and things that he wanted to incorporate with a more defined offseason that while it is still being played in the midst of a pandemic. We've got a clear cut. Game plan is to what we're going to be doing here. This offseason with working in some of the things that canada wants to do plus his experience from last season. I think the offense is going to look a little bit different. It's not going to be hopefully ask predictable and defensively. They still have a lot of good players there One of the interesting things about bud. Dupree for instance is you've got guys who were able to put up numbers with as indicated different system. Different coaches Different around him against a certain level of competition now he's viewed as to. What was he able to do the last couple of years but going to a new team that's going to put him possibly with a with different types of players around him ask him to a slightly different role potentially maybe a bigger more expanded role with a different coach against different offensive players. He's he may not look the same. And you may be paying for what you were seeing as opposed to paying for what you're going to be getting and that's kind of one of the perils. I'm not. I'm not saying that. That's definitely going to be the case for him but it very well could happen because that defense overall top to bottom was very good in. He was part of that but asking him to stand on his own. And do those things and do more of that those things because he's commanding a higher price in free agency may be a challenge will just let the listener knows that the titans released malcolm butler another intriguing free agent on the market and and yes like no other way so i got distracted by that but the point that i wanted to make is I'm with you warren. That seven wins for the steelers as a around. The floor makes a lot of sense. I just wanna throw out there. That ben roethlisberger might not be got anymore. The nor i think we're on the same side of this and i think we both kind of our. I don't wanna jaws dropped but when you said warren that this doers are gonna be good. I think we both kind of looked at each other and zoom. And we're like wow where this one going on. Because i really do think that roster there is really good. I think kevin colbert. He wanted best journal managing football. I think mike tomlin's a really good coach. I ain't that roster stacked. But i think that the quarterback position is really important. And i think ben rothlisberger has a chance has a chance to be like unbelievably bat. And we've seen what the backup options have been well two years ago they still want. What eight with mason rudolph starting almost every game and and and duck. Hodges so i just think that. I i give him a lot of grief right but their head coach. There does a very good job of having a a decent enough floor with almost every single team. Mike tomlin does a good enough job with getting these guys ready to play games. They absolutely lose games that they should win too often. defensive schemes with keith butler or terrible. They've got issues there. They had issues with their offense coordinator but now he's gone. I don't disagree whatsoever. I think. Ben rothlisberger absolutely could have trouble this season and not perform to the level that we think that they need to get him to perform at in order to make the playoffs. But i still think that it would be surprising at least for me to see him. Have a just a horrendous season. That makes the steelers. Go foreign twelve like i. I don't perform thirteen with seventeen. I don't see that happening. I still see. Seventy eight wins is like their floor. I because they're going to be enough enough close one score games. They'll be able to scratch and claw their way to record this. Close to five hundred. In my opinion. I'm with you. And i think we're settling here is that it's actually a huge testament to the more stable factors in that organization because again the the quarterback might be really terrible. Both those things can be true and it would be. It would result in seven months. I think i think that's like mingka. Fitzpatrick was winning games. Bhai himself over the past two year. Like this is it's a good roster and it just shows you what the floor is when you have a good yemeni coach in a lot of talent. So ben roethlisberger is just sort of separate from everything else there and he limits them and they're not gonna win fourteen games next year But the kevin coburn. Mike tomlin keep them on against all right. Let's go through quickly before we get into to warns big fish and free agency by the way. Is there any other tag dots. Either of you guys had that we didn't ask about that. Patriots shouldn't have tagged. Joe tony last year like they didn't do it again and he's going to be free agent. Why did they do that last year. What was the point of that. A rhetorical question presented four. Okay i didn't. I didn't know you know. Do you think they should have signed him. They i mean either signed are just let him go then All right so really matter with lethal Let's let's lead that into the discussion about the patriots here. So they traded for trump round today They're obviously going to retool their offensive line a little bit Nora this line in two thousand twenty one looks like what It's just so hard to know when you don't know who the quarterback is because they prioritize. I mean it. It's funny that we're talking about trent brown. Who's like the largest humor. I've ever seen in my entire life person. They've prioritized size with their lineman and a lot of cases there's some exceptions like david andrews has been an exception to that but in general they have a pretty clear physical prototype that they liken those guys and i think it's really interesting to just look at how some of those parameters that they've laid out influence who eventually will make sense in that system. I mean just. The trent brown story with new england is hysterical right like she has an incredible. I'm he's for like a million dollars. Then get this crazy contract. The patriots got a compensatory pick because he goes to say oakland Las vegas and now he's back they will not be paying him that much. And then we'll see what the rest holds but just the the that trent brown has had this Back and forth with the patriots is fairly unlikely. And i think very interesting to me warrant if you were named jim of the patriots tomorrow with personnel power. What would be your first few moves. Yeah it's well. It doesn't go past the quarterback position we've got to figure out what we're doing there and Like nor said the offensive line is very important there you. They ranked twenty seventh in pass blocking efficiency but they did go up against a difficult schedule of opposing pass rushers. They went up against the fourth toughest schedule. So it their quarterback as we know controls a lot of the pressure and ultimately the sacks that he receives in With the different quarterback potentially they fair a little bit better. But you're not gonna get far given what that division is producing. I'm still really interested to see what's going on down in miami With their direction with their draft. Pick as well as as to as to how. Good that offense in the passing game in the passing attack specifically is going to be but buffalo is is a team now that is obviously deserving of being division favorites. And you're going to have to figure out a way to compete with them and be able to be productive in that offense for the bills has a quarterback who can deal with pressure and you can get the ball out when he's not dealing with pressure And so you're going to need to find a quarterback in. They had one they didn't have to. I don't feel sorry for them. One bit they did not have to deal with this for many many many many years and underpaid at the quarterback position while getting the best of all time to Stand under center and so. I think we're going to see that. Has to be the priority for bill belichick to get. This team turned around Is going to be defined a quarterback and get them protection barring injuries in crazy. I just don't see much of a path. They're in two thousand twenty one for the afc east For the patriots are there at best buying for wildcard. Even that would take a lot of maneuvering here. All right labonte david two years twenty five million dollars Nice deal to come back One of the backbones of that defense. Warren i assume you have no objections to bring back onto david nun nora. Absolutely none love it. Great rewards actions at passes. Congratulations jason light. You've you've signed a deal everybody. Everybody's on board with confetti. Frankly yeah and it's also good just optically and planning wise. Just get the deal done today Because now all you have to do is worry about shack barrett. And we'll see what happens. When phrase starts goodyear to have a premium free agent on the market is not a quarterback Because you're not going to probably get one of those godfather offers From some of these teams are just capped out. Because as we said the to infinitive our cap is still five years away right now. it's going to be flat Or just rise a little better. Go down a little bit whatever it is problem. Probably around hundred eighty million dollars And obviously it rose ten million dollars a year for eight. Straight years is different cap environment. all right so isaiah wilson to the dolphins would this quick Bossed with titans. I didn't want to be with the titans. According to social media as a first round pick Is there any reclaiming isaiah. Wilson's career warned trump. I mean there could be. I think there's a little bit of history with him and brian floors From what i've been hearing and so if anybody you're not gonna make a move to go get somebody if you don't feel like you're going to be able to get the most out of him and i feel like they're gonna try to figure out a way. Obviously the talent was there. It just wasn't coming to fruition and so i think ryan floors has done has given me no reason to doubt that he is capable of going to the gm. And say. i want to get this guy here. I think might be able to get something out of him. And i'll trust him that he's i'll trust flora's more than anything to say. Hey maybe this is a great opportunity for fresh start and a see we can get out of them nora. Yeah well so Both brian flores and n wilson went to poly prep in new york. But at the same time. And i'm not gonna oversell that as something that's going to make a guy who hasn't been super successful as a football player into a star overnight. I think there's something of a relationship and a trust factor their big picture though. It's just good to take swings right like they need. They need help there. They need to get better on the offensive line in miami. So why not bilo. In a few different instances like i hope they keep trying things like this. Because eventually you're going to get it right and because you can't wait around for eventually you gotta try them all same time. So i'm i'm all for in some ways. This this specific move is almost a little bit moot to me. I am all for them. Throwing darts at the board china improve this position because again whether it's two or if they manage some trade or get another quarterback there they need better protection for him and that roster is getting pretty close to a point where it's like you gotta have this figured out because you're ready to go and the quarterback is obviously one. Am not but i think the offensive line is one be. So i'm i'm just happy. They're trying stuff there. I'm looking with flyer. There don't have high expectations but it's gonna be fine chi wong's turning the. Nfl took twenty twenty off Obviously made three pro bowls regular player when he's healthy From the best of walking and we'll see what the interest is there. But i definitely there's a place for him in the nfl. Nfl show is brought to you by ziprecruiter. The best team star with rate talent but finding the right people can be challenged. Guys we talked about this every single week. How hard is it to build a team. 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I n g r and at this episode is brought to you by instead instead is a new alternative log care that's natural instead. It isn't a flashing marketing ploy instead as a choice for a world filled with new choices. No harsh chemicals. Just natural ingredients that work. It's not some trendy new natural lawn care. it's natural lawn care for how we live. Now it's safer every member of the family when used as directed it's delivered when you need it and really tough to mess up no gimmicks no compromises just results instead a better way to lawn instead go to choose instead dot com to find your plan and get ten percent off with promo code spotify. All right warren. Let's get to your study because it's one of the most fascinating things i've read. This offseason says you did a deep dive on on how to spend money In free agency There's a lot. I want to get to It's called super bowl. Champions us free agency correctly Big picture what did you learn. I learned you know my. I was skeptical about free agency. Because i've done studies like this in the past looking at a some of the same types of data Just in different years and always come up with you know. Don't spend a lot in free agency because you're overspending in general and it's not the way to build A winning roster. But what i found is that there actually is a sweet spot and you can't ignore it like some teams are doing and expect that you're going to be able to reach your ceiling. You have to utilize free agency. The key is not to use it to the extent that you are relying upon it to build your team and there's ways that you can structure some of these free agent deals and get guys on board that are actually going to be linchpins towards you winning a super bowl but you're getting these players on short deals that are in a lot of cases team friendly and putting the right pieces around them or putting them into the right position. We're asking them to do what they do. The best and it's a perfect pairing and we've seen many super bowl. Teams built over last handful of years. Because not because they ignored free agency but because they used it but they didn't just go hog wild with that they used it intelligently and it really was a big difference in them making the super bowl right so there's two things i want back here Number one i'm looking at this chart here wins versus frequency spending the last two years and there are obviously good teams. Bad teams The bills and saints and the packers are teams that have spent in free agency are winning obviously whereas jets the lions the jaguars lower are not winning with that money Take us through what you start with with the bad teams. What are some of the mistakes. A team like the jets or the lions have made when they're identifying some of these players and i guess you know obviously they're trying to build Enlarge part of freight opposite had some drive capital and the jets in some cases of hit on the draft picks but obviously their strategy didn't work. What did those teams do wrong if you look at the team that spent the second. Highest amount of money in free agency was the loss. Now las vegas raiders. And they went out. They signed the number one most expensive free agent offensive linemen in twenty nineteen. Which is trent brown. They went out and signed the number one most expensive free agent wide receiver in two thousand nineteen just tara williams and they went out and signed the number two most expensive free agent safety. They signed all of those players to like max. Four year deals which is like what the top of the line free agents are getting their given. The most amount of money is anybody in the marketplace and two years later every single one of those players has gone from the team. So it's these big deals for players that Maybe your team's not ready for like you did. The raiders really need trent brown to be that lynch pin difference maker on the offensive line to get them to a certain place. No they didn't need him. They didn't need this wide receiver to be a difference. You look at it. And in many cases some of these teams that are bad. They think it's going to do one of two things. I guess it's gonna save the gm's job right. The teams losing. Let's get some impact players as spend in free agency or it's going to rally up the fan base. Oh my gosh we're spending. We're getting some good players because what do fans want. Fan average fans are sitting there like man. My team sucks were losing. Let's get some good players in here. You don't know how draft picks are gonna turn out but at least you can see all my god. This guy he at least was good the last few years for a different team. He should be great for our team. And so there's this Unnecessary were kind of like to to eye of optimism. When you're looking at guys in free agency thinking what they did on their other teams is going to translate perfectly to what we need in our team and generally doesn't happen especially to the guys that you end up paying top dollar now. There are exceptions to every rule. There's no doubt about that but by and large. That's what ends up happening. And that's where you get some of these teams that are spending on average a hundred and thirty one hundred and forty million dollars in free agency last couple years. The only way that you're spending that extreme because the average in the nfl has been down. Eighty six million is by getting some of these massive deals for big name players the tops at their position. Nor i wanna talk about another warns points but you know one of the things he talks about is how quickly teams can actually turn around now and for agency And how many players on super bowl winning team tampa bay. Kansas city new england out the are in the first contract either via draft or via free agency and actually some of the audit skill guys especially in tampa bay where were via free agency. You've done a lot of reporting on how teams have turned around. Yeah you did. The buffalo p seemed. You've done handful of things on his teams that they went from from bad to good or good to great When you look at how teams turn around now Using free agency smartly as warren discusses in this piece Using the draft. How do you what do you think of. The core tenants have just just building team right now in twenty twenty one well. I have a question for warren. That i think is important to this because the answer to your question coming is often. There's real pain Of the salary cap variety and otherwise. It has to come before you're able to do that. Buffalo had that year where they were carrying. I think sixty million dead money used in history and they just said we're going to rip the band aid off and trust me when i say it hurt. Because i've talked brandon beane about this and heard him explain how badly he wanted to find a higher quality quarterback then they were able to find in terms of the backups. Or at one point. They thought they were going to be bridged. Quarterbacks for josh allen because they wanted him to have a different runway into the nfl then he ended up having and they could because they didn't have the money for it say tried aj mccarron and that didn't work out. And then that's how we got to the nathan peterman experience which was really not good news flash so the thing that's interesting and it actually moved back to the saints and i know i'm sort of half kidding about that but what we're seeing and again with new orleans. It's just like okay. When is it coming. We thought it was. This year is next. Year is the year after that. Like when you have to have these short periods of cleaning out the bucks and then you get to remake the roster as you would like to and so the question for warren is if we are seeing teams. Do this more often and and we have right. The dolphins did at the jaguars. Did it. that's coinciding with moves me to acquire draft capital but. I don't think that we can ignore what's happening with their finances to. That's following this pattern. If you have money to spend how do you not overpay because pain kind of defines free agency and a lot of ways like you just explained so. Is it more a matter of doing shorter. Turn deals or are there. Ways that teams can try to find actually lower average annual value contracts for guys when they go through one of those years where they've got the money they don't necessarily have to spend every penny like the bills are good example right. They didn't just go. They added offensive line depth. They got cold beasley like they weren't fully fully fully bailing out. You don't have to do that. But i'm curious what your approach is to spending the money that you do have when you are one of these teams in one of these situations the one thing that i can say to that is inevitably. There are gonna be some teams that need to spend. You know. there's certain floor. You gotta spend too so there are going to beat some teams like that. But that that point i think what you wanna be also keeping your eyes on is the opportunity that exists when you don't cut a player and you let him leave in free agency by signing guys to deals that will allow them to reach the conclusion of that deal and leave in free agency which gives you an extra compensatory selection and that will help your team even further so when you're signing guys the big deals that are four years for a lot of money. You're getting the best guy you don't really need to use him. You don't know how to use him. He's not gonna be a difference maker and the ended up cutting him before that's over you. You're getting nothing out of that. But to your point you gave a suggestion. Maybe you sign a guy to a shorter term deal then you keep them for the life of his contract. He leaves in free agency. Now you can get a kick out of that so there are. There's not one right. perfect solution. Free agency is a messy game to begin with but there are some teams that are figuring out more intelligently than others in the goal in my opinion if you are one of these bad teams and you do have money to spend you. Need the set your priorities and figure out your plan very straightforward. What is our goal this season but two to three years. Like whoa where we headed. If we're not gonna do well this season anyways like where are we trying to get to end. It may be painful and you may go through the seasons. Where it's it's terrible. And you're not gonna have the call the runway for josh allen but the ultimate goal for any of these teams. That's bad defined a quarterback and win a super bowl when he's on his rookie deal and that's what all of these bad teams should be doing. If you can't do it this year figure out how you're going to get in position so that you can do it next year. And you don't need to have a perfect team when the quarterbacks or rookie as long as you have a team that's going to be headed in the right direction. When he's in year two to year three that that's really the sweet spot for a lot of these teams. Okay so this is a big question. But when i look at the the winds versus free agency spending and see the bills in in the right quadrant i see the saints. I see the browns. I see the packers And then obviously the teams that don't spend And that's different category. But who's the best gm in the offseason at signing players. If you look at a franchise and he's okay. These are are the guys who are the model. Everybody should look at this. Gm as the model for how to spend money and free agency. Where do you go on man. I'm actually curious to hear with experience talking some of these guys. But she mentioned a guy in brandon. Bean who has done a great job. The last several years. I think is difficult. You you have a guy like kevin who they don't really spend much but they seem to have an eye for getting certain players But it's hard to have this like long term sustained success. It's it's easy to be good at a few strong years and put together a team for few strong years. I mean we saw what howie roseman did. The build that team for the two thousand seventeen season for that run to the super bowl. And how many of the guys. They added that off season. Were massive difference makers turn nick foles and one and number three wide receiver. Their number one running back and in multiple guys on the defensive side of the football. I think brandon. Bean is seeing things really well. It's almost like a guy who's you know in a basketball game and the fourth quarter and work vision rhythm and you're seeing things really well and you have a lot of confidence. She's seeing the board really well right now in my opinion and it's hot That's not necessarily to say that. He's the best that we have but he's doing a good job and he's done a very good job. The last couple of years in my opinion now just to be clear like the chiefs and ravens and seahawks are at the bottom of agency spending but obviously they win so they're gonna right quadrant and you look at those two so there's this bunch of ways to build a team and and obviously you know those shoes had success. We're talking about being aggressive frady warren. How long should a rebuild take in the worst case scenario because one of the interesting things about this. As i talked to with nora salman is how many of these players on the super bowl champions last four years where in their first contract. I'm legit theory when you look at a team. Like the dolphins or at a team like the bills. It takes really two or three years. And i think a lot of these families where they're trying to buy time for their program or whatever it is they want a longer contract loudly. Gm say well you know it might take into your four whatever and sometimes in the worst case scenario if israel cap problems that might be the case but i think on an under normal circumstances. Really only you're going to start to see signs of progress by your to really When you look at kind of the timetable martin. Nfl worn. What do you think i think. Progress by year two. And you'll know whether you are really close or are going to ultimately be closed by year three. I think years re is really that key year in these rebels. I don't really care what year one looks like whatsoever agree. I truly do not care. I care that were making progress by year two and that were really close if not thereby years three and because you know it's it's amazing when i would look back at the players that were in because it really isn't just free agency it's you know. What are you doing with trades. what are you doing with draft picks. And i went back and i looked at the seven skill positions plus the quarterback for the last four super bowl winning teams and twenty three of those thirty two p players which you got eight per team. Three thirty two were on their first contract. That seventy two percent. And we're talking quarterback seventy five percent of them running back seventy five percent of them. Wide receivers eighty percent of the wide receivers that were on these super bowl. Winning teams were in their first contract with those teams And it's not necessarily the first year the second year. But you gotta have this group of talent that you're able to bring in and that's why you're one who cares year to you could see okay. We're close but we got this whole we got that whole and you're adding to those holes and trying to patch things up so that by year three and and sometimes you're forced to late but by year four. You are at your apex and if you're gonna get it done you got the guys and you got enough luck that you're able to get it. Accomplished nora is their team right now. That is not good but you think. The building blocks komo with the dolphins last year where the building blocks in place for at least a rise next year where we say okay. This could make sense. Because i know this is a strange thing to say but i would say a team like maybe the washington football team will be in that discussion depending on what they do a quarterback. We say okay. The the building blocks are here at the right. People might be in place to coach. Good there might be a rise year depending on what they do in the next three weeks and free agency that the draft the panthers in that discussion as well as that's so you just hit it right smack dab on had those. Those are the teams. Because it's it's hard to like. We don't know what the quarterback situation is right so like the biggest question. Mark that can exist exists but both of those. I trust the infrastructure. I think it's interesting. It's largely coincidental. But i still think it's interesting that both of those teams have invested really heavily on defense through the draft. And those are the cookie cutter places where you gotta write a quarterback. You put someone in and they've got good coaching infrastructure. Good people on the personnel side and other high quality talent. Ready to go around them. It's the biggest thing to try to get right but if you get it right. Boom like even with washington. I mean look like they were in the playoffs. So it's not as other that far away in in some ways like we were just talking about. Taylor heineke you know and with carolina i think they lost like eight eight eight games or something ridiculous in the fourth quarter so now that's with an experienced quarterback and we'll see what happens there. I mean whatever you think of teddy like. He's still knows what he's doing. So we'll see. I think carolina is going to be really funny this offseason because they're totally going to be like the hipster tam and whether that is proven right or wrong is going to have to do with that position but those two teams. I think are really good candidates for it and then probably one of the potentially really big spenders will get it right enough. That's like maybe the jets get it right. Maybe the jags name. I don't really. I'm very iffy on the coaching infrastructure. But one of them will get it right enough to make a big leap warned. The most fascinating thing you said at the end of your study. Was you think that there might be super teams issue and you actually flipped at that earlier in the pot as well. If you were to circle a couple of teams we should be watching and we'll buy super teams. You basically just just mean being able to assemble talent because of the cap because of the bridge does were talking about. I talked about this couple of weeks ago. where i said maybe the bucks were in line to be that a couple of days after that bruce arians was asked whether not who's going to collect those guys and guys who are looking for one year deals and we'll take money to blow tom brady and he basically said i don't know how many guys we're going to be looking at From the outside they might just wanna run it back with the guys that they had But if you were to circle a couple of teams warned that could be those super teams. Were guys are gonna wanna come. And they'll take two million dollars less than a one year deal and wait for the captor reset itself where we looking. I got a couple. But i won at throw into the prior discussion real quick. The chargers would fall in line to me with the team. Be in line to make next jump. They differ from washington and they differ from carolina in that they have their quarterback but due to coaching and just bad lock in a variety of other things around them. They obviously didn't have a good season last year. But they've got a new coach. They've got a quarterback who is that franchise guy these next couple of years like who cares what they did last year. The they ended up losing some games. That was actually good now. We got potentially a better coach in there. We got some better picks than we would have gotten had. They just had a great season last year. And now is try to build this roster thom tillis go try to figure out a way to get the pieces so that by year two three particularly three not so much twenty twenty one by they could take a nice jump this year but by twenty twenty two that they can take a nice sleep To to be up in that upper echelon of teens. I think that there are capable of that with their quarterback in terms of your question with regard to a couple of places that could be looking to construct super teams. I'm going to look at some of the more intelligent. Gm's out there and a teams that potentially are close. That could get it done. I know some of these teams. Don't necessarily have the most ideal cap situations this offseason. But you know lamar jackson still on his rookie. Deal and eric. Decosta is a smart gm. And i think that there would be moves that they would go out there and try to make where look we said what has been one of the biggest knocks. This team doesn't have a number one wide receiver. They don't have got well. We just talked about a couple of good wide receivers out there in free agency some fast wide. Receivers out there in free agency You also have some nice tight ends out there that you could also bring on board and convince these guys. Let's go for a run you know. Let's go for ron. We've ended the playoffs. Couple of three straight years with the mar- We this could be the season. And i think guys they they wanna win games. They want to go places where they're going to win games. They don't just want to go someplace where they're like. Hey we can give you a decent quarterback but if you're not going to be a win games like what's the point so i think they are interesting team. I also don't necessarily know that this is going to be the case. But cleveland is a team that you know you could. I like kevin stefanski a lot. And i think it wouldn't be difficult to convince a couple of guys to go there and particularly on the defensive side of the ball potentially say look. We're just a couple pieces away Look at the progress remade last season in our first year there. I think the buffalo bills are a team that realizes the window that they're in with their quarterback and they're going to have to spend on him soon and they could be a team that would be looking to add pieces very quickly so There's a handful. All those guys are over in the afc. If i'm looking in the nfc we talked about the saints. Having to cut. Everybody knows but who knows what that would be. Perfect her saints. Become the super team. After all this they just add four guys. Who doesn't make any sense that they have them doesn't make any sense whatsoever. Playing quarterback in this scenario is it russell. Wilson. it's russell. It's just shawn watson. Russell wilson kit training camp battle. I retire i will retire. It's difficult to see a team. Like the packers really being just from what they've traditionally done to say. Look let's go out there and acquire a bunch of key pieces for one year deals you'll initially has to like go after some of the best guys though you just have to get guys that are going to be good fits that you were lacking last season. I mean some of these guys okay. Some of the best. Gm's the moves that they can make him free agency as long as they're not overspending are saying. This is where we actually needed. A guy like this one who i can get for one year or that guy who i could get for two years So another thing to be if you're really getting creative here and other teams are trying to slim salary cap down trading we've seen teams do this where they trade picks for players right like get rid of this picking get this player instead and that could be a way that you're going to Build up so these not a free agent but you identify guy that you want on a team. That really would like to slim their cap a little bit this season and is building to the future. And maybe we're going to see a little bit more of an aggressive approach from gm's this offseason in that respect as well beyond free agency but with trades for future picks sharp. We love having your nor prints yati good to talk as always one's next Taylor swift up so coming out thursday. We're doing fearless. What time midnight again stay out. I'm not sure that sounds like midnight. Sounds like all right guys. Thank you so much. It's been the show on the wringer podcast network episode of the wringer. Nfl show is brought to you by bolt twenty four from the makers of gatorade bolt twenty four when it comes to advanced. Hydration bolt twenty four is keeping it really real with no artificial sweeteners. Were flavors and electrolytes from watermelon and sea salt. Those things go together. I mean if you're not out there. Spring a little salt any watermelon in the summer. You're doing rock twenty. Four is supporting your athletic lifestyle. No matter where your day takes you bolt twenty keeping it real tribal four today.