Effectively Wild Episode 1614: The Most Difficult Free-Agent Contracts Draft


Everybody on the road. Those tall free tall. Thank god jeff. Hello and welcome to episode sixteen fourteen of effectively wildly baseball podcast but then graphs presented by our patriot supporters undelivered of the wringer joined five. Pnc similar flow high. One of the reasons. I was sorta pessimistic about this. Offseason was the prospect of re-litigating the sign stealing scandal again. But i was not expecting actual litigation which is now what's happening so jeff. Liu now sued the astros on monday morning for breach of contract and he is alleging that he should not have been fired for cause he should have been fired just like most gm's or fired where they're entitled to whatever their contract called for and because he was fired for cause the astros got out of the money that he was owed which he says in. The suit is a lot of money. According to this they signed him to a contract in two thousand eighteen for more than thirty one million dollars plus performance bonuses and unspecified profit sharing interests scheduled to vest from twenty twenty one to twenty twenty five so he saying that this cost him more than twenty two million dollars in guaranteed compensation and additional benefits. He is also saying that the penalties that the astros were alta subject to where the product of a negotiation between manfred and astor's owner. Jim crane that it wasn't that manfred impose these penalties that he sort of went back and forth with cream on. What would be acceptable. Don't know if that's true or not. But i know that. Mlb is probably not pleased with this. So we've seen cora get rehired we've seen hinch get hired by the tigers. Luneau seems to be the one who is out in the cold. And i guess he is just burning all the bridges which may be were already burned and he's just saying well if i'm not going to get my job back or a job back. I'm just gonna sue him for all they're worth and maybe also make a headache for rob manfred which it seems like. He has a grudge against him a lot of money that they gave him. Did you know. Ohio is making that much money. I did not know yeah. I didn't know that gm's probably were like. I knew that friedman had gotten a huge deal and that was sort of seen as the Like the most Kinda prestigious contracting gm. And had i. I didn't realize that. Just like i mean you know not like jeff luna's like you know considered replacement level or anything but i didn't know that just like gm's were making thirty one million dollars now apparently. No i don't know how many years that's for and that was coming off a world series winning season and that includes bonuses and profit sharing. So i don't know exactly how he's getting to that number but it's still a big number. Yeah i kind of did adult like like yes. Friedman had to be recruited. He was swooped in on by a much larger budget team. And so in that kind of shocked everybody at the time even like the the amount that he was given seemed to be like a a new level but luneau is just there on the team presumably. They you know like you just wouldn't i don't know i wouldn't have guessed i would've guessed if i if i guess i would have guessed. Three point. two five million a year for three guaranteed years. That's moving. i would've guessed thirty one million. That's a lot yet is so there's been various claims on each side like whenever it was last month. When did his first interview where he broke. His silence insisted again that he didn't know about the sign stealing scheme and then there was an article in the athletic were unnamed. Mlb sources came back and said that he did or that. There is strong evidence that he did and a lot of this seems to hinge on lake whether he read his email st- fully that like some of the emails had info about this in them at some point and maybe he didn't read the whole thing like it doesn't paint him as a great boss if he didn't know that this was going on i guess their degrees of culpability here and it seems like he was dismissed in part at least for just not making clear what the expectations were or what the new rules were and just not telling the players are the field staff what they could or couldn't do so he's trying to clear his name may be a little bit. He's trying to claw back this money. Which i guess makes sense given how much it apparently is and maybe he's also trying to make manfred in. Mlb look bad and it would not shock me if there are things about mlb investigation that the league would prefer not come to light because it seems like they were eager to get it over with a lot of people. Were not happy with how it was resolved. I think it's understandable. That players were not suspended. But i think a lot of people did not understand that they were not suspended so i don't think. Mlb wants this to come back and and for another offseason to be about the science duke scandal and for who knows what documents to come up during discovery here so i wonder if he's just angling for a settlement here or maybe that's the most likely outcome so that they don't actually have to air all of this. Apparently it's not clear whether this can proceed in quarter whether it would have to be subject to arbitration according to the terms of luna's contract but seems like he's either given up on getting a job in or he's just ready to sort of fire. Whatever ammunition he has here. And i'm sure the league would like to silence him if possible. You think that this rules out the possibility of him getting a different job in baseball. I think it helps and i think he was already the least likely the other two guys hitchin. Cora have already gotten those jobs. It didn't seem like people were lining up to give a job the way that they were winding up for. Hinch cora and it just seems like a lot of people don't like and they like hinch and maybe they like court to and so they were willing to forgive. I just a you keep sort of like framing this as burning the bridge. And yeah i'm to figure out whether you think there actually was no bridge and or whether you think that if there was a bridge that would actually burn anything. I think there might have been bridge to some sort of position. I don't know whether someone would have just given him a gm job on day one. But i think he could have gotten some special assistant job or something and some less public less visible role in than may be worked his way back into a more prominent position. When people's memories faded. I i think that could have happened. This seems to me. Like i don't know bringing this up again. I guess you could say if he's trying to assert his innocence or that he didn't know about the extent of this then he's trying to clear his name he's trying to make himself more palatable but it seems to me that just like going back into the breach year and suing and suing. His former team might make another team. That would consider hiring him less likely to do that. And while this would occasion is going on like you're not going to hire him while this cases preceding probably and. I don't know how long this will take to straighten out. So i think is bridges. Were more burned than the others to begin with but this probably burns whatever was left it at least for now. He could probably just switch into some other industry and and get a job if he wanted to or if he was making this much money then maybe he doesn't need to get a job for awhile he's probably fine. Yeah can you imagine thirty one million dollars. Can you imagine how much money that is I can't imagine working any job long enough to get thirty million dollars like any job. I had any job that i had. If you got me up to. There is a point that i would quit working and that point is probably way less than thirty million dollars in other news. That mlb probably does not want aired. I talked a little bit less time about the justin turner decision and the lack of discipline. There don't know if you have anything to add on that subject but it seems to me that it was kind of curious how. Mlb pivoted almost about faced from almost entirely blaming turner in its first statement to being a little more measured and taking some responsibility on itself for turner's conduct or their. I guess failure to prevent turner from doing what he did in the statement that they released on friday and that might just be because they conducted an investigation and talk to people in. There were some mitigating circumstances but it could also be because he's just kind of want to move on from this too and that if they had tried to suspend turner than maybe some things would have come to light that would have reflected poorly on. Mlb to possibly the decision not to pull him from the game in the second inning when the tests came back which we talked about but also there have been some comments by a couple of dodgers in recent days that really cast into question the whole concept of the bubbles. And i've been talking about it and referring to it as a quasi bubble on the show because it wasn't really an actual nba style bubble. But i think we were told that it was maybe more secure more impermeable than it actually wasn't and that was one of the reasons why i someone said jack. Benny are former epidemiologist. Guest said that maybe it was acceptable for them. Not to pull him from that game because they'd been in this quasi bubble and because they hadn't had a positive test for a while. But max muncie sorta sounded off about this and it was mostly just defending turner or going after. Mlp's what he seemed to think was unfairly targeting turner. Which i don't agree with but muncie did say. Unfortunately somehow he's it in a bubble that was supposed to be controlled by lp yet at the same time there was mlb staff. There were reporters out on the golf course. Walking outside of the security zone doing of the stuff they weren't supposed to do and justin pays the price for it and now they want to put it all on justin. Joe kelley went off at greater length about this and he said it makes sense that someone got the virus. It's secure zone. But it was the first time in my life. I have felt insecure. I was insecure in the security zone. It wasn't called the public. It was called the secure zone for people who don't know what's at a nice hotel a beautiful hotel in las colinas and there is a golf course there and i happened to have a room avila green which is pretty crazy because it's a secure zone but my room i would say is no more than twenty yards from the green. It's still open to the public. So it's a bubble except golfers are hitting golf balls next to my window and then crossing the secure zone tape line. People are yelling at them and the gophers are yelling back saying no. I'm going to get my balls. It wasn't as secure one. Might think because like i said there were still golf course open to the public twenty yards away from us every single day. He said we weren't allowed to play golf. According to the rules. And the tears. But i saw a lot of golf clubs in the hotel. I know for a fact that people staying in the hotel were playing golf. That weren't baseball players. It was media. It was on field talents empires. They were still allowed to play off etc and he also added hotel staff. They come deliver room service. They're supposed to leave it at the door and numerous times they come in the room and deliver your food and these hotel staff members go home every single day to their family and not stay at the hotel. so how is it a secure zone or bubble. We got lucky. I feel like and then he said if we weren't aware as players to try and stay away from getting it and let our guard down. I'm sure it could have been more than just one. So i wasn't in the quasi bubble i can't speak to the conditions there but it sorta seems like if they had tried to come down hard on just the turner and really scapegoat him. You know whether fairly or even more so than he clearly deserved then. The dodgers who seemed to all very much like justin turner and have his back maybe to even greater degree than they should probably would have come out firing and sorted demise the whole quasi bubble enterprise i so i would not be surprised if that was one reason why. Mlb backed off a bit and said you know it's it's our fault too. What a fun league says right now. We just transition seamlessly from gm shaking down the league because they don't wanna spend another offseason on the cheating scandal to the to the league's You know figleaf updated press release speakers. They don't want people looking too closely. Their bubble yes. I don't know. I mean people aren't mad at justin turner forgetting kofoed. They're mad at him for coming back onto the field and then taking off his mask when he was standing next to other. Humans like doesn't really feel like how close the golfers joe kelly's balcony is relevant to whether justin turner. You know like infuriated people with his actions. Once he realized that he was infected with deadly disease. Right yeah. I don't think it makes what turner did less bad but i think maybe. Mlb could come in for criticism if they had tried to say. It's alternates just this rogue player when they didn't maybe acknowledged that he was in conditions where it would have been more prudent to take him out of that game before it even got close to that point so i think the fact that maybe it wasn't as secure as it was presented or or is some assumed could make an be work a little more rash in just letting it even get to the point that he could come out or he could stay in the game for as long as he did. I can't remember if i asked you this. But do you think justin turner had been on second base. When the test result came in they would have pulled off the field. I kinda think kinda think. They would've waited till he got back. In i guess in fairness like his probably not gonna infect anyone when he's standing out on second base but you never know i mean it seems like there is not much or any onfield transmission when they're out in the air and probably not standing next to each other. Maybe the risk is a little lower than when you're off the field but he should have been it just it would have been so visible like the way that they ended up doing it where it was between innings and then like either people notice that he was gone at first or no one quite knew he was gone or with the sequence of events was and then all of a sudden the game was over but had come out in the middle of the game and told him to because he wouldn't he was pulled from the game so there would have been epic. Discussion may be an argument of some sort about it. It would have been very visible. So i think they would have been really pretty desperate to avoid that right. Well we can transition guests from With gatien and ensuing over the science killing scandal and suspensions or on suspensions because of covid to the free agent market is. Is there anything you want to get to before we do our topic today. No all right. Well we are here for our sixth annual free agent contracts draft and as we have counted you completely cleaned my clock last year to such a degree that if you had just broken even you still would have beat me handley because i just i had one of the worst drafts that we've ever done. Probably it was a disaster but the way this has always worked and we'll continue to work is that we will take a list of agents ranked with their contracts estimated. And it'll be trade rumors what we have been using lately and we will try to find places where we disagree with that list and we will take over or under so If someone is projected for a certain amount and we think they will make more than that we will take that player and say over and then whatever the difference being if we're right if they do end up making more than that estimate than that amount is credited to our ledger and say if it's under if we think they're going to underperform the projected contract and if nothing happens or if we're wrong if we guests in the wrong direction than that counts against us right. That's how i ended up in negative territory last year and At the end we just add up all the overs an under and see if we picked in the right direction and last year. I think the last couple of years. We drafted eight players piece. It's eight players a piece. Yeah it does it. Did we say that it has to be four on each side the nobel. No i don't think so okay and it's like you get five million for being right and then you get a right. That was a new wrinkle. less time. Right yeah it was. Yeah yeah so. I guess so. Forget what the details were. But yes i think you get something just to be right at all and then you also get the amount that you're right by added to your total all right and that'll be tracked in it's In the google sheet that john chinyere keeps for us. Which i will link to and this is a tough year to do this. 'cause i don't think anyone really knows what this market is gonna look like but everyone assumes it's going to be bad and so going into like i wasn't even sure if we should do this draft again because if it was just going to be taking the under on everyone and then like you know having some impulse to celebrate getting it right when when you know if it's just players getting underpaid or getting less than they would have been worth in previous offseason so i don't wanna be like taking a victory lap about that all offseason but i think. Mlb trade rumors obviously has factored that into its estimates. And i don't know about you. But i do have some overseas. I'm not going all under so hopefully it won't be too depressing. Yeah i think there are plenty. That i would have overs on normally. There's so many i would have over on normally. Yes that my mind is not gonna be able to adjust enough. So i definitely am still all my first response to every one of these is over and then i have to remind myself why these are so low in the first place right and there has been a guest one somewhat prominent free agent signing one player. Who is on. This list has been signed. Robbie ray went to the blue jays for one year and eight million. Which isn't over because mlb trimmer. Sediment one year six million. So it's possible to go over in this market as a whole is like It's pretty bottom heavy. I guess or pretty evenly distributed like the top of the market. There a few murky guys. Obviously mookie betts could have been on this market but signed the expansion so there's not as much top tier talent as last year. Let's say but. I think there's more depth but you know i think even more players will be added to the free agent list as the players. Get non tendered. Sometime soon probably. I don't know how frustrations going to work the year. That's a whole mess. Kaz arbitrations based on comps. And you know what players got paid before and this year there is a short season. So you can't compare counting stats. So there isn't really seemed to be of a method that everyone has agreed on for. How arbitrations gonna work this year. So that's just going to be a a bit of a mess to anyway. We'll see but let's get to the draft. I guess just curious like Is it your hunch that collectively i guess collectively do you think that. Mlb trade rumors looks. I don't know i'm asking you to maybe give away too much. But are you in a state where you feel like contracts are in free fall this year or that. They're still resilience because the most the best evidence we have for resilience probable is that mookie. Betts got his extension and that was a huge commitment by a major league team that there will be baseball and fans that they will keep selling tickets in the somewhat near future and that was not a small investment. Right i mean they put almost half a billion dollars behind the idea. That baseball is coming back in some way. And that's the biggest investment that any team is is going make or put behind a prediction on the future baseball like trevor. Bauer will get paid plenty. But no one's gonna no one's going to be asked to put four hundred million dollars behind their belief on the future baseball the way that the dodgers did put four hundred million dollars behind it and then on the other hand i feel like the brad hand day was the day everybody went. Oh my gosh. Like it's an earthquake because brad hand so correct me if i get any of this wrong I haven't been following it that closely. But brad hand cleveland's closer was had ten million dollar club option with a one million dollar buyout on and Cleveland waived him in the hopes that someone would basically take him so that they wouldn't have to pay the one million dollar buyout so they had already decided that he was not worth nine million dollars for a one year deal and then they hoped that someone would claim him so that they wouldn't have to pay the million dollars and nobody did which suggests that nobody else thought that he has worth a ten million dollar one year. Deal and brad hand just to be clear is an elite. I mean he's like a top five for lever in baseball. Probably right now. He has been for five years. He's been the top of the league's relievers. He would have been and all star for the fourth consecutive year. This year he had a one point three seven fifth this year. He's as good as they come and he's thirty and we know that closers were as good as they come. Generally speaking if they're not super bowl are looking at somewhere between three and five years and somewhere between probably fifty and ninety million dollars and so probably in a normal world with brad. Hand a free agent. we would be talking about. I don't know four years. Sixty eight maybe for him. Maybe and instead he cleared waivers. Nobody would take maybe the well. Do we know for sure that nobody wanted him. At one year and ten million. Maybe they knew that they wouldn't be able to make it. Put a trade together. I don't know what do you make of that. Yes it seems like no one really wanted him and now he's a tree agent. I guess like maybe he'll end up. Getting something similar to was his was four but probably not much more than that. I guess one would have to assume so. It is sometimes misleading. When players clear waivers were talked about this in the past but sometimes players clear waivers. Not because nobody wanted them. You know it wants to pay him what he was owed on his contract but because they knew that it wasn't just going to be about putting in a waiver claim but they were going to have to put together a trade with the team that waved them. Anyway i don't know if that's a factor here at all and clearly. Cleveland wanted to be rid of that entirely and so anyway the point is brad hand one year. Ten million dollars is like outrageously low. Four recent standards of elite closers. Yeah i mean. He was some philosophy. I could see whether there may be some nitpicks that you could make but that was pretty concerning yet and when it was just cleveland not exercising the option. Then you think wallets cleveland. They're super cheap. They're trying to trade francisco indoor like they haven't really invested in that team but when it's everyone who has a crack at him and doesn't take him. Yeah that's that's worrisome. So i don't really know what to expect. It seems like a lot of teams could maybe have different evaluations of. What's the likelihood that we're going to get a full season in next year. And that fans will be in the stands. You know there's some good news about vaccines as a reason to be optimistic. I don't know different. Teams suffered to varying degrees this year because of the lack of attendance. So there's just so much uncertainty. It seems like everyone is pretty united that it's going to be bad so we'll see how bad all right so i don't know who's who's starting here you one last year. I guess that gives you the right to choose that. Have we do this i. I don't know how we do this. Random number generator pick a number between one and two and i've generated and you pick a number. I say one or two two it was one r. Okay i go. I all right i will take. Let's see. I'm trying to remember how i even play this game last year. I i remember. I took garrett cole with the first pick thinking that probably it would all be won or lost because his contract would be so much bigger than everybody else's that there was a pretty good chance that the prediction would be off by a lot by like sixty million dollars in one direction or the other. Like if i picked andrew simmons at twelve million for instance. Well maybe he'll get two years in and twenty million or maybe he'll get one year and ten and i can try to guess which one but there's there's a very limited upside there but i figured you know when's garrett cole predicted to make three hundred million you're probably going to get like a pretty big margin there and you can rack up points anyway. I did that and it worked so this year. There isn't a three hundred three hundred million dollar player here. I'm going to go with. I'm gonna just i'll try this. I'm gonna take the under on trevor. Bauer that's going to be my first pick. Two hours predicted four years in one hundred and twenty million dollars. of course bauer has Has in the past suggested that he would be interested in short term deals for as much as possible so that he could maximize his year to year salary kind of basically betting on himself that he he saw an inefficiency in the way that players took longer deals that cost them year to year and so if he thought to do that any way he might not take a four year deal at one hundred twenty eight million dollars as this prediction goes but furthermore this if there was a year that you would not wanna lock in a lower average annual value it would be the year when teams are all panicking about covid. So i'm to just guess that trevor bauer will go out there. Be willing to take a two hundred and forty million dollar deal if it shows up but that he will also be willing to take a one year thirty six million dollar deal. If if that's all there you know if that's what he's looking at yet. I was going to do the same thing and with any other year with any other personality. I guess you would project more than this probably or or at least this much you would not take the under for one. Twenty eight coming off the season that he had of course. It was only a two months season but still you see the leading candidate to win the cy young award. He's certainly one of the things is yes i that's true but he might actually be you know at. We're still be a second or third or something and coming off that sorta season normally. You're looking to cash in on like this. You know would be great timing for him in most years but it is this year so i don't know it would go against like the history of free agency. Basically to say we'll take one year deal after having like the best possible platform year but because it's power because he has said that thing about one your contracts going year to year and his agent said something fairly recently saying that despite his comments about only taking one year deals like they're open to any of deal which you would expect like. Why limit yourself if someone wants to make an exorbitant offer. But there's some possibility that he would actually do that or take short tim europe just because of the market as you said and i don't know like maybe teams will Wanna see what happens if there is some kind of crackdown on foreign substances as has been in the news again lately and he had that huge spinner expect. Maybe they would want to wait and see what happens. So yeah i could see it Being fewer and less money. So i think that's a good pick and there aren't really a lot of other places to go for like a a huge strike here for one of us because there are only what three contracts on this list that are projected for one hundred million or more. And i don't know to me at least the next two. Don't look wildly out aligned. Ernie thing so. I don't know that there is a place where i could stand to make as much as you could potentially make with the under on bauer. I guess i will take the under unst. Roman at foreign sixty eight. And i don't feel great about that but i think the fact that he missed the entire year because He had a calf injury and then he opted out. And so there's some uncertainty there. He also has a qualifying offer attached and as we speak. He has not actually rejected that. Yeah no that's a good. That's a good strategy. Always anybody who who's like a potentially on the fence about equality offer. I think you're only good pick last year turned out. She jose abreu right taking the offer even though it was less than the average annual or more than the average annual value of what you. I can't remember anyway. Yeah that he ended up signing the extension mmediately signed me extension. That would have made you the but yes because there. Yeah yes so sturm. And i think he probably will reject it. But i don't know he's he's on the border wind he has to think about it like clearly he is thinking about it because he is not yet rejected it as we record on monday afternoon so some potential that he just accepts it in which case this works out for me and even if he doesn't accept it then he does have the qualifying offer attached. So there's some free compensation there and he missed the the whole season. So there's some question marks about how he will be in two thousand twenty one so you know and even if he doesn't wanna take the qualifying offer he could. I suppose still take a one year deal for a little bit more than the qualifying offer just to demonstrate that he's still healthy and good and then in better off season go for the picker long-term deal so stroman. Yeah yeah he. Yeah yeah all right. Good good good. Pick especially with the qualifying offer. I'm gonna take over here. I feel like. I do want to have some overs and i guess i'll take the over on. Marcello is predicted here at four years and seventy two million dollars. And you know i mean. He came within thirteen points of winning the triple crown. He's is he thirty at he. He's not thirty yet. He will be by Wednesday but he's not right now he's still twenty nine. Which makes them young for a free agent feel like in a normal year. We'd be talking about maybe five and one twenty five for him. It's just impossible to know what any of this is going to do. But let's just say that in a normal year. I would expect a lot more than eighteen million dollars average annual value but even in this year for years might be a little light. I could see him getting getting five Especially coming off that year with his age and with the hope i think of a universal the h. around league in the somewhat near future and also you wonder whether maybe the bargain that teams and players make this year is that the salaries are going to be a little lower because of the uncertainty of twenty twenty one but the length might be a little longer like that might be the bargain like teams might be willing to give a little on length as a as a salve to players that are really frustrated that they are not giving on on dollars. Yeah the thing about him. That gives me some pause because he just. He had an incredible offensive here but he had to settle for a one year deal last offseason. Or at least that's how it was often described that he had to settle for one. And so whatever concerns teams had about him then maybe not entirely allayed by a really great couple months and i think the defense like he won a gold glove a few years ago. No one thinks of a musical governor now and the defensive metrics are somewhat split on him but the statcast based outs above average had him. I think as one of the worst outfielders again this year and in limited time because he d h -t most of his games. So that i guess tells you what the brave's thought about him. So i guess actually. He played such a limited amount in the outfield that he wasn't actually listed as one of the worst but he was still in negative territory according to stack. So oh that. But i think there were questions answered on offense because he was one of these guys who had great statcast metrics and hit the ball really hard but also hit grounders and no one was really sure if like the expected stats for him. Were actually what you should expect. And this year he did great and he hit more balls in the air. He was fantastic so right handed bat not too old. Yeah in a normal year. You would probably expect more than this before the season. I said something along the lines that it would be very hard for me to to have that. Sixty games was not enough for me to really dramatically reassess. A player especially a veteran player. No matter what happened. Good or bad. And that i felt like there were very few players. Who's who who's public. Perception was going to change very much based on what happened in twenty twenty like if it was a bad year. We'd say i'll. It was a short sample and a weird year and it was a really good year. We'd say well. It was a short sample and so there might be some adjustments made to what we think of player but for the most part i thought that whatever we thought of them coming into twenty twenty we would still think of them going out at twenty twenty and i was. I mean. I think i was wrong about that for myself personally. There are lots of players that i think a lot differently about now than i did three months ago. You mentioned that teams might think that the same problems that they had with those oona coming into the year they might feel like he didn't answer them because it was only sixty games. Do you feel like there are a lot of players whose career trajectories or public perceptions have changed dramatically based on those two months. I think so. I think probably more in the positive direction. It seems like if you had a really great year maybe people are more inclined to believe that whereas if you had a lousy year than people will just write it off as so it's weird. It's small sample. it's twenty twenty which doesn't really make sense. I don't think unless you think it's more likely for like certain players to be disproportionately affected by the stress. And the lack of fans in the stands. You know the psychological aspects of things but that's kind of my senses hit like people are just more willing to write off a bad year and treat a good year as actually indicative of improvement All right i think i will take an over as well. I'm gonna take gonna take marcus semi-in over he is at one year. Fourteen million on the mlb trade rumors list here. And i think that on the one hand he had a a really lousy year heading into this. But it's what we were just saying he had you know a bad two months and i think he is sort of viewed as maybe kind of like a one year wonder because he had such a great twenty nineteen and he was third place in. Mvp voting but it wasn't really a one year thing because he was really good in two thousand eighteen to at least on defense. according to the metrics he's become a better defender overtime. And maybe not so much in twenty twenty but again you know two months of defensive stats who knows so. He's been like just like slightly below average hitter like every year of his career basically except for twenty nineteen and so yes. That's probably not who he is but he too is fairly young he just turned thirty in december. And if you believe the defensive stats he's been you know either an above average player or an average player or a superstar over the past of four years. Or so he's he's been pretty consistently good and he's young enough and he did not get a qualifying offer which make you say. Well that means as didn't think he had much of a market that They didn't have to give him a qualifying offer. Because you know. I guess like he have taken it and they don't wanna be on the hook for that but you could also say well. He's free of that Draft pick encumbrance. So maybe someone will pay more for him. So i would just think that on a one year deal he could get more and that he someone who if he wanted a multi year deal it would probably be out there for. What is the qualifying. Offer this year. what was it eighteen point nine. That's what it was last year so it didn't change. I don't remember okay. It feels like the the way that the qualifying offer is determined based on the previous year salaries has created a a well. This year is going to be really weird. Next year is going to be really weird right because if you just assume that salaries are going to be it was. It was seventeen point eight last year. Okay so have you assume that if you assume which maybe this isn't true and maybe teams aren't assuming this but we're kind of thinking that based on brad hand if you assume that salaries are actually going to drop for free agents this year than the qualifying offer becomes disproportionately daunting for a team. That is affecting everybody else to to To make less and then next year if get back to normal and the qualifying offer is based on this year's salaries than it's going to be too low next year qualifying offers not surprisingly not making sense considering that the whole concept behind it doesn't make any sense. I'm gonna take the over on. Dj lemay okay. Dj lemay projected project not projected predicted to get four years in sixty eight million dollars. I am really. My brain is having a hard time. Squaring a couple of things here. I keep thinking that That the right answer is the undrawn everything because the world is falling apart. And then i'm looking at these numbers and thinking. Well he's better than that. Yeah i'm just thinking like ben zobrist. Few years ago made for years and i think fifty six as a free agent and benz was four years older than the mayhew is and coming off of you know a couple of years where he had been like three win player. They dj lemay. You just led the league in oprah's plus and on base percentage and is basically going to have a second consecutive top five. Mvp finish and is only thirty one. It just seems like again. I'm not doing a very good job. Balancing what. I know about the world with how i react when i see these numbers but he was like total superstar for two years like i mean one of the five in baseball for two years. And he's not that old and he plays a handful of positions and everybody says when's the last time you heard somebody say something bad about detailee meeting people talking about dj mayhew like he's not they people compliment him as though he's not good. You know like he gets all the compliments that you give a role player. Meanwhile he's putting up. Mvp numbers yeah. No he's great. Defense hits all fields. Just seems like maybe he would aids. Wealth has been good in colorado has been good outside of colorado. There's nothing really bad that you can say about detail hugh so yes. I think that's a pretty decent pick. All right i think i will take the overrun charlie morton and this is like a limited upside. Pick clearly but charlie morton is predicted to to get one year and eight million. And i i know that the has declined his fifteen million dollar option so he's probably not going to get fifteen and certainly not from the rays at least now. He's on the open market. It just feels like it's not really an open market with morton. Because he's talked about retiring. He lives near tampa bay. It's possible that he will only want to play for tampa bay. And i would think that yeah maybe tampa bay decline the fifteen million dollar and thought. Well we'll give him less than that but wills will still resign him. And i would think that that would take more than eight a again. Like i'm just kind of angling for the five million dollar bonus and maybe a few million here unless someone else comes along and gives them a multi year offer something which like he totally deserves somehow. Yes. he's still a really good pitcher so it's possible that someone will come along and offer him enough that he says okay. I'm willing actually to live somewhere other than tampa bay if it's just a one. T market in that team is tampa bay than clearly not going to get much over eight million but like how can you justify giving him a pay cut or not giving him more than eight million based on how well he is pitched so i just think like if he signs anywhere and doesn't retire it's got up on the the upward direction of eight. Yeah i remember when we used to play. What would you pay richhill. Yes charlie morton is the same age. That rich hill was when he hit free agency. And i i think i would. I would happily sign charlie morton to any contract that i would have signed richhill to at at that point and mean i think if i were making a an offer to charlie morton right now. It would probably be three years and sixty three million dollars. Yeah right if it were a normal year in a normal free agent. P totally deserve something like that. Yeah yeah so all right. So that's yeah. I just assume that more more and can retire but he might if he does. I guess it doesn't hurt me but doesn't it to you. If he retires. Do i get a negative for. He signed for nothing. I don't know it's tricky. Because like what if what if what. Trevor bauer retires like. Would i get nothing. That wouldn't seem to make. Well i hope but that wouldn't make any sense because it seems to be like the spirit of this game trying to mark. Yeah but the going rate does that mean you have to take does. Do you get credit than for the highest offer. That was out there. The highest confirmed offer if he turns down. Eighteen million from the yankees. The that now because you can never totally trust those reports. I don't think so okay so we're calling it retires. They won't be because no one wanted to pay him anything i think so. I don't know we'll yes. We can leave that up to the judge. But i have a stake in this now but i think that's in the spirit of what we're doing all right. I'm going to take the under. I'll take the under on. I'm gonna take the under on didi gregorius yet. I had that on my board. It's three years and thirty nine million dollars and you know he. He didn't have a very. He did not have a robust market for his services after last year. And that was partly because this. I think that he saw this year's a chance to play the proverbial billow contract season. And it wasn't a bad you're on the surface but the eggs velocities on his batted balls. Were really kinda troublingly low. And so i think that this might be a situation where his raw stats if he had had a one twenty. Ps plus one hundred and fifty games than it'd be easy to say. Well that's that's how that's how he does it. He has low exit velocities in one twenty. Opiates plus in sixty games. It's a lot easier to fluke into that sort of thing and the exit velocity is is probably you know is not a fluke. I mean he might recover from. It might be something that he improves on. But we know that that reflects how hard he actually hit the ball. We don't know that he was really particularly good hitter. He could just kind of hit into some good luck season so combination of age trajectory coming into the season and like i said the exit velocity makes me suspect that he could have a hard time talking people into three years. Yeah no qualifying offer. And i could see him getting multi year deal but three at that rates it. It seems like i mean he did he got one and fourteen for twenty twenty and then he made good so well. That's the what that's the question is like a lot of this because even if you have right he got one and fourteen and now this prediction is three and thirty nine to three at thirteen. And if if it were not for the pandemic than than you would say well did he make good is is his is does. He seem better now than he did. One year ago will. He seemed better now than he did one year ago. And i don't think that he did. I like i don't. It's not clear to me that he lay. I sort of feel about him. Like i did last year. In fact i might feel slightly worse. Just because of the tr- like i mean in two thousand eighteen. He he was electric like he was at that point he really looked like a star. Now he doesn't he doesn't look like a star to me anymore that it's a it's all a little slower to little softer and so i don't think that it's necessarily that. He made good. And then you just add onto that. The fact that who knows there's that chaotic unpredictability about the market. Yeah and there are a lot of shortstops available. Not only this off season but next offseason. J. jeffey just wrote about this kind of a glut and of course if they're out of free agent shortstops or shortstops available on the trademark market. Then that means there may also be a lot of teams in need of shortstops. So it's not like the market will be flooded in. There won't be any demand but still there are a lot like we've talked about semi-in and then they're simmons and then there's gregorious and there others international players lynn door etc so it's it's not like he stands out on this market aright. I will take the over on. Alex kalemie at one year and six million way down the list. Alex komi and again it's a reliever and the the market being what it is and bread hand being valued apparently the way that he is. Maybe there's a limited ceiling here. But alex colome may is a closer coming off a season when he had a point. Eight one year. A and not a fluke. I mean the the point eight. One era was a fluke. But he's been a very good reliever for several seasons. Now he's been very durable for a reliever hasn't really been hurt and i just don't see why he would not easily exceed this like i. I see that there's some concerns like he. He did not strike out a lot of batteries. that is for sure he had a thirteen point. Three percent strikeout rate infect. His strikeout walk percentages. Were exactly the same so that is quite concerning of course but he also gets grounders. He has had years when he missed bats. And not that teams are like paying for closers anymore. Or paying for an ira but Even his you know peripherals were pretty good. And he's just been solid for so long and uninjured for so long that it seems to me that he would be a pretty safe bet for some team. That's looking at least for a setup guy for a couple years let's say so. I think he could do better than that. I'm gonna take the over on. jackie bradley. Jr. this prediction is two years and sixteen million dollars and legislatures go back to de gregori. Let's just assume that. Actually the three and thirty nine for says just right which i have no reason. I'm just. I'm just guessing here. I have no reason to think that it's not so three years and thirty nine for dd. Gregorios plays a premium position. Coming off a a one twenty plus you know a poor year before that but a previous good years with with good offense so that all basically describes jackie bradley jr. to a lot of ways he's the same age gregorious by the way as well so bradley. Jr. one twenty oh. Ps plus last year. He was like i think he was. Maybe top ten in the american league in war because his defenses always fantastic and it was presumed to be by these metrics that struggle with short samples but presumed to good again last year. That makes perfect sense bradley. Jr. you can just admire his defense with your own. Bear is And i'm like gregorious. The good offense came with a somewhat worrisome. Exit velocity bradley. Juniors average exit velocity was six miles an hour higher than gregorian which is a huge huge. Obviously a huge tier above. So i mean he's he seems like like in a normal year again. I think in a normal year. Think you'd be looking at you. Might you might find four years and fifty million dollars. And i'm not ruling out that this could turn out to be a somewhat normal year. Okay all right with my next pick. I'm going to take james paxton over at one year and ten million dollars and there's so much uncertainty around everyone there's more uncertainty around paxton than most. But i just think he has been effective for quite some time. He just turned thirty two. You can't really expect much more out of him than i don't know of one hundred thirty innings or something at this point like he's topped out at one sixty in his career and he's coming off. A another injury plagued deer when you know when he was healthy in pitching he was still missing bats. His preference were still pretty impressive but he did lose a lot of it just seems like that was maybe because he had a back injury and he was perhaps coming back a little too soon from that so this is entirely dependent on him getting a clean bill of health and with paxton. I don't know how clean bill of health can be at this point like you're just gonna pencil in some amount of miss time here but if he's more or less healthy given his track record of pitching well when he is available i think he could either get more on a one year deal or maybe some team has some sort of like incentive laid in multi year. Deal for him to rebuild his value. Just seems a little light for me but again who knows. I am still trying to figure out the eight million dollars for charlie morton all right. I'm gonna take the over on brad hand. Oh bring it back. The world is weird and uncertain. And we don't know how many stadiums are going to be open next year and we don't know for sure how long season is going to be an all of that. However i think that i think that probably the number of teams trying to win should be about normal i think for the most part teams still wanna. I think that you're gonna have roughly the same amount of teams stink. Now's a good time to make our baseball club. Better and brad hand is like he would make any baseball club. Much better it just clears day. All teams need more relievers. All teams need the teams that have good relievers. They even want good relievers more because they can see themselves in the postseason and they wanna have a deep bullpen of crete relievers. I think that brad hand is going to have like i. I know that. I know that he just pass through waivers but i think there are going to be twenty two teams that call brad hands agent and so out of that. I think that things will shake out and he will end up getting if not. Maybe i don't know maybe the numbers are weird again going back to what i said earlier. Maybe the numbers get really weird this year on average annual value. But i think brad hand ends up with maybe a four year deal. I think some team gives him for years and so instead of two years and fourteen. I think he ends up getting like Four years and thirty six yeah. That's what he's getting four years and thirty six. that'd be quite a twist all right. Well okay think about it. Let's say you're a team that can get brad hand for one year in ten million dollars. Do you want that when you could get him for four years and thirty six. I mean this is the this is one of those cases where the one year deal actually doesn't have that much as much upside for you like. He's a total bargain for all of those years. He's not he's not he's not bad and i don't know maybe he's maybe he is. Maybe the velocity dip makes him risky in. That's what everybody is reacting to. So maybe they're all laughing crazy sam right now but for years thirty six million brad hand. Okay i think i will take the under on jaco torrisi and last year i was pretty bullish. Otc and in fact. You drafted him in. You took the under on him and that was a big score for you because he took the qualifying offer last year and it looked like he made a big mistake by doing that. Because lots of pitchers who were not really better than jaco. Teresi got more money than he did it. It seemed like he had maybe misjudged the market. Because we were coming off a couple cold winters and spending was back last year at at least for good players and or really was one of the few who did not cash in in that market and now things might work out poorly for him again because now he sitting free agency with no qualifying offer but having missed most of the season with injuries and having pitched pretty poorly when he was available he made four starts with a six five nine. Yara an intercostal. Strain in blister issue. And i don't know like last year at this time. I think he looked really good. Coming off the twenty nineteen season. He had great peripherals. Now it looks like maybe a little bit of an outlier or you. You just can't really be confident in him. The way that you can't really be confident in strowman. And so i think maybe he either goes for a one year deal and tries to reestablish himself and make more next year or maybe just a a two year deal or you know goes for the security over the dollars or something but seems to me like this might be a little rich shirt or at least more than he'll get although not necessarily a bad deal because if he comes back and he's healthy and he pitches like he did in twenty nineteen that would be a steel Yeah i'm still looking for. How are kirby. Yates and greg holland. The same amount here. It's a good question all right. Wow john lester five million. I should have read to the bottom of this. I will wow. There's some famous people at the bottom of this list. Getting one year deals bird. Like four million bugs chris archer. Wow yeah four million. All right i will take carlos santana the money over the over. You took him and the guy giving you room to maybe gas okay. I mean i think that the if you're talking about how a sixty game season can really mislead people on statistical side the the two main ways you're going to have some crazy wars because the difference between like plus three and plus seven defense in sixty games is is absolutely margin of air territory and yet changes you from being like eighteenth in the league in warren like eighty fourth. And so there's going to be that and then you're gonna have batting averages and there were a lot of really good hitters who hit twenty this year and part of that. Is that the game. You know it's a low batting average environment. But i think that like batting average fluctuates. A lot and it fluctuates in sixty games. A lot and so you look at somebody like carlos santana who over the last five years has been not not at the very top level of hitters but consistent and one of the probably i know thirty or forty best hitters in baseball throughout that time and then the batting average plummets to one ninety nine. It drags a lot down with it. But he led the league in walks. He still to me. Looks like a very good hitter. Very strong hitter very controlled hitter. And he's a little old and it is true that a one year deal might be all that a early old age slash first baseman is looking at right now but i think that carlos santana said who i picked. I think he's i think he's got a little bit more than that in. And we're what is this the seventh round. yes hand in the seventh round. I'm looking for places where i might get a half million dollar win All right i think i will take the over on android ten simmons at one year. Twelve million. And gosh. I i just think of him as such a good player that that just seems low to me. Maybe i'm overrating him but this year he was. You know basically a league average hitter which is more or less where he usually ends up. And i guess it's concerning that for once. His defense was not off the charts. Great and in fact was in negative territory according to some metrics. Now it's a small sample. of course. He had an ankle issue which may have hampered him and the ended up opting out like in the last week of the season. Which you know. I don't know what to make of that. I don't know if it's just that he figured the angels were out of it and he'd get a head start on his offseason or whether he was having a difficult time with this year for whatever reason and once it became pretty clear that the intels were out of it he decided to to stop cutting out so you know that makes me think that maybe he was just not very happy. The the season for whatever reason you know if he didn't finish it out then maybe there was some difficulty. Maybe he found the circumstances to be trying in some way that could account for diminished performance. It's not like he was bad and he's only thirty one and he has been probably the best defender in baseball over the past several seasons and i don't know we talked about how many shortstop sir available but boy entin simmons. You wouldn't want that guy for multiple years. I i think. I still would or for more than twelve for one year so i will guess that someone gives them that you could be right. I remember having a conversation wondering whether you would get even that much so not convinced. I'm i'm looking to see what i'm looking for a second source on defense because if you just look at the trend on his defense i mean it starts for years ago. He was the greatest the greatest shortstop that there ever was and then his defensive runs saved halved in twenty eighteen have again in two thousand nineteen and then dropped basically to two zero last year and so so there is a line. There is the direction that it's that it's going but you know trajectories like that are often often misleading. And usually the answer is actually backup in the middle somewhere. But you know. He had zero barrels last year. I i i don't i'm not a i'm not a generally a barrel aficionado. Just trying to figure out how you even do that. How how do you. How do you manage to have zero barrels. It's not like he didn't hear ya. He had he had find numbers. His exit velocity was fine. Launching was normal and yet somehow he did not get that elusive barrel. Yeah it is odd. All right last one i will take. Wow the cubs paid john. Lester ten million dollars already is out. Because he had a twenty five million dollar option he could be. I should get if i take him for the over. I should get the ten million. I'll take john lester as an over one year. Five million dollars. I mean i don't know right. He's his name brand waste. Executive is a proven winner. Exactly if you need to I feel like if you're a gm and you want to demonstrate to your fans you had a big offseason made a bunch of splashes you do need to get a legit splash. You need to get someone like a power and it helps if you have to legit splashes but then once you have two big legit signings and if you then fill it out with a bunch of famous thirty seven year olds it. It looks better and better to the season ticket buyers so like you make the too good deals like you go get i think The ideal offseason this year for a team. That's demonstrating its commitment is that you get like bauer lemay. You and then you get like john. Lester and mike minor league. No cole hamels cole. Hamels is a good one mark. Lanson i mean. Lcs closer mark ryan anderson. You get him and it just looks like you filled out your twenty twenty two promotional calendar. Already okay my last pick. I i will take urpi gates. You mentioned him earlier at one year and five million i'll take the over on that like Two thousand eighteen twenty nineteen curb gates was like one of the very best relievers in baseball and Had some injuries this year. But i could see teams going for more than this on one year. Deal or trying for a multi year deal. Where maybe they get more value in the second year so yeah curb. Eight and I had a bunch of guys who were just kind of like in that territory. Who i wrote down but didn't feel any better about than the ones i picked like. I considered taking marc bolan. 'cause you know one year four million for a name reliever like him who has been good. You know not like elite but pretty dependably solid for several years. Now thought about him. Thought about travel may be at two in fourteen thought about cesar hernandez over at one in six thought about cole hamels over at one and five as he mentioned and i did think about the overrun justin turner at two twenty four. Just you know. Leadership etcetera side from post world series lack of leadership and i wondered nelson cruz over at one and sixteen. Yeah we we did a whole episode on him. In september fifteen eighty eight and he's been socred and seems likely that there will be universal the h although that's not official yet and he is said to be seeking a two year deal and as you have documented. You don't always get what you seek. But it seems like given how great he has been and with the market that he might have that he might very well get a two year deal from someone so clear sixteen easily but i didn't take I thought about the over on every person all right. Well we did it. I have no idea who had the better draft or whether either of us did better than a mobile drusu knows anything this offseason but we tried. It's a tradition. Well after salmon. i recorded. We got some news out of maricopa county not election news this time. It was tony larussa. News jeff passan and others at espn reported that larussa was arrested in february on suspicion of driving under the influence and he was charged with the i on october twenty eighth which is one day before the white sox team. The white sox reportedly knew about the arrest at the time so this was not a surprise to them. And a white sox official told bob nightingale that larussa will neither lose his job nor face any disciplined from the team. Because of this so add it to the list of reasons why this was such an odd hiring. I think when meghan. I talked about lewis's hiring we didn't even get to the dui that he had been charged with in two thousand seven. I was aware of it but there were so many other reasons why the hiring was strange and the process behind the hiring with strange that a thirteen year old you. I didn't even come up as far as we knew it was a one time thing. Now we know it was at least a two time thing so maybe we'll talk about this more next time as more news services that when he pleaded guilty to the two thousand seven charge larussa said i accept full responsibility for my conduct and assure everyone that i have learned a very valuable lesson and that this will never occur again. Well it seems to have occurred again. And there's really no justification for that that will do it for today. Thanks as always for listening. You can't support the podcast on patriotic by going to patriot dot com slash effectively. Wild appalling five listeners have already signed up and pledge some snowmobile out to help keep podcast going and get themselves access to some perks. Michael birtles polander. Michael mandelbaum chris. Von brecht zach trout. Thanks to all of you. You can read review in subscribed to effectively well-done itunes and spotify and other podcasts platforms. Your questions and comments for me. And sam meg coming via email at podcast. The gresh dot com or missing system if you are a supporter thanks higgins for his editing assistance and we will be back with another episode little later this week. Ocoee them going going going.

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